Sunday, September 20, 2009

Michigan 45, Eastern Michigan 17

Hyperspeed: Engaged.

Yesterday's final score represented what most Michigan fans expected. The score before and during halftime . . . not so much. Michigan jumped out to a whopping 3-0 lead before Eastern Michigan tied it at 3-3. They were tied again at 10-10 and went into halftime with Michigan leading, 24-17.

The star of the game was Carlos Brown, who ran only eight times in the first half but gained 163 yards in that span. Brown started the game in place of Brandon Minor, who's still feeling the effects of a sprained ankle. It wasn't apparent that Minor was injured, so as the game went along, I thought to myself, "Brandon Minor must be a horrible teammate and completely uncoachable, because he's the best back on the team and they won't play him." In a way, I'm glad he was injured because I like him and I'm hoping those thoughts aren't true.

Star quarterback Tate Forcier had a bit of a tough day. He started off hot but only completed one of his final six passes, finishing with 68 yards in the air. Eastern Michigan did a good job of hanging right with Michigan's receivers, who couldn't get open. That's a bit scary if you're a Michigan fan. The Wolverines should have far superior athleticism and talent on the perimeter, but that just didn't seem to be the case.

However, the story for Michigan was that the Wolverine running backs were much faster and more athletic than Eastern Michigan's linebackers and safeties. Michigan finished the game with 39 carries for 380 yards, a 9.7 yard average. In other words, Michigan could have run the ball every play and practically never faced a second down. Brown finished with 187 yards while Denard Robinson had 60, Michael Shaw had 53, Mike Cox had 31, and Minor had 21. Michigan finished the weekend ranked #3 in rushing offense.

Defensively, Michigan still has plenty of work to do. Defensive end Brandon Graham and nose tackle Mike Martin can both command double teams, but Michigan's inside linebackers continue to be unable to fill the running lanes sufficiently. In fairness to the linebacking corps, starting WILL Jonas Mouton missed the game after being suspended for a punch he threw in the Notre Dame game. His backup, former walk-on Kevin Leach, led the team with 10 tackles, but neither he nor starting MIKE Obi Ezeh recorded a tackle for loss. Leach hustles and did a pretty good job of being in the right place, but he's simply not the athlete Mouton is. Eastern Michigan was consistently able to run the ball in the first half, running 28 times for 128 yards. Defensive coordinator Greg Robinson and his coaches were able to make some halftime adjustments and limit EMU to 51 yards on 20 attempts in the second half, but really, there's no excuse for the way the Eagles were able to run the ball in the first half, especially when you consider how little success they had in the passing game.

On the subject of defense, Michigan cornerback Boubacar Cissoko was the victim of one of the most egregious pass interference penalties you'll ever see. Former Michigan cornerback Johnny Sears, who now plays for EMU, was inserted into the game as a wide receiver in the first half. Eastern Michigan quarterback Andy Schmitt tossed a fade route to Sears against Cissoko, who was basically running the route for Sears and had position downfield. As Cissoko was sprinting downfield in front of Sears and reached for the ball, Sears climbed up his back and tackled the sophomore corner. Somehow the referee blamed the collision on Cissoko, who should have just as much of a right to the football as the receiver. It was atrocious and I'm sure the official will be getting a reprimand this week, whether it's public or private.

Offensive game ball goes to . . .
Carlos Brown (1). Brown carried the ball 13 times for 187 yards (14.4 yard average) and 2 TDs. One was a 90-yarder in the second quarter. Brown's lack of tackle-breaking ability is still frustrating. For evidence, see his 30 yard run in the first quarter where he's taken down by the wave of Darth Vader's hand. But his speed is scary.

Defensive game ball goes to . . .
Craig Roh (1). Roh made 7 tackles, including 1 tackle for loss, and had the first interception of his career on a pass tipped by Ezeh. He also combined for a sack with defensive end Will Heininger, giving Roh 1.5 career sacks.

Let's see less of this guy on offense . . .
Denard Robinson (2). I'm going to take flak for this because Robinson ran the ball well (3 carries, 60 yards, 2 TDs). But he can't throw the ball. He's not ready to be an FBS quarterback right now, and that probably won't change this year. He threw the ball four times and completed none to his teammates, but two were caught by Eastern Michigan defensive backs. One INT was an underthrown ball to Martavious Odoms, who was double-covered. The other was an underthrown and woefully inaccurate post route to Roy Roundtree. Robinson's quarterback rating is currently . . . wait, what? . . . seriously? . . . uhhh . . . -6.10. Yes, that's a negative sign.

Let's see less of this guy on defense . . .
eh, I'm not going to pick anyone this week. The inside linebackers didn't play great, but the options there are limited. Leach was in there because Mouton punched someone and he led the team in tackles, so that's pretty good for a walk-on. Ezeh was just okay, but J.B. Fitzgerald and Kenny Demens aren't any better.

Highlights: Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

The Case Against Denard

Need I say more?
People on message boards are clamoring to see Denard Robinson. With Mid-American Conference patsy Eastern Michigan University coming up this Saturday, some fans are dying to see the fleet-footed Floridian start or take the majority of snaps against the Eagles.

No.

Tate Forcier is a true freshman. He won the starting job outright. Practice observers said during fall camp that Denard Robinson was catching up to Forcier, but that couldn't be further from the truth. Forcier has thrown the ball 53 times for five TDs. He's also run for a little over 100 yards. Meanwhile, Robinson has completed 2/4 passes for 18 yards. He's just not ready.

If you don't believe me, review the WMU game. Yes, Denard took his first snap 43 yards for a touchdown, but it was on a broken play on which he fumbled the snap first. That's great athleticism, but that doesn't mean he's ready to win games for you. A good punt returner might have done what Denard did on that play. I wouldn't trust a good punt returner to take snaps for an entire game in an FBS game.

Meanwhile, each of Robinson's passes was thrown 90 mph. One completion was on a very nice catch by Kelvin Grady; the other was just a solid throw. His two incompletions were darts, one of which probably should have been intercepted by whoever was covering Greg Mathews. The only detail that saved him from throwing his first interception was the fact that Michigan was playing a MAC team.

I don't know that I've seen much of a difference between Denard Robinson 2009 and Justin Feagin 2008. The coaches didn't trust Feagin to throw the ball against decent competition, and considering that Denard didn't throw the ball against Notre Dame, that makes me think Rich Rodriguez has approximately the same confidence in Denard's throwing and decision-making. If Feagin had played against a team like WMU last year, who knows? Maybe we would have seen him throw a couple passes.

Tate Forcier needs to start the game against EMU. He's only two games into his college career, and he's thrown a total of 53 passes. He led Michigan in a great comeback win against Notre Dame, but there are still some things he could improve, particularly his reads on the zone read option. Removing Forcier from the EMU game would stunt his growth, if only for a week. He needs to get ready for the Big Ten season. You can bet that EMU will throw some different looks at him, and it's better for Forcier to get used to reading different alignments and coverages against a less talented team than seeing a certain blitz for the first time against, I don't know, Iowa or Penn State.

The reason Michigan fans want Denard to play is simple: Denard is very, very fast. Michigan fans never ask to see the backup unless the starter sucks. The starter has been awesome, so what gives? I don't see OSU fans clamoring for Joe Bauserman or Notre Dame fans begging for Dayne Crist. When the New Orleans Saints played a cupcake Detroit Lions team this past weekend, I didn't hear any Saints fans asking to see Mark Brunell so Drew Brees wouldn't get hurt. Denard hasn't shown that he can do anything with his arm, but Michigan fans want to see him take a shotgun snap and teleport himself into the end zone. That's all well and good, and I'd like to see teleportation myself. But no matter who you are, if the opposing team knows all you can do is run from the QB position, they're going to put eight or nine guys in the box.

Forcier should start the game and take the majority of the snaps. Denard should play intermittently and if Michigan gets a big lead, Rodriguez should let Denard loose and see how much of the offense he can run productively. This quarterback situation should be treated like any other. Michigan shouldn't weaken its starting quarterback just to strengthen its backup. That makes no sense.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Michigan 38, Notre Dame 34

Tate Forcier is better than you. At throwing. At running. At breaking Darius Fleming's legs. At keeping cool under pressure. At punting. He's better than you at everything except, perhaps, brushing his teeth.

I predicted a 31-27 victory for Notre Dame. I was wrong and I'm glad. But I was fully prepared for a defeat before the game, and I was even pretty prepared when Notre Dame went ahead 34-31 with a few minutes left in the game, at least compared to most Michigan fans. But then Charlie Weis got all cocky and was like, "I'm going to totally surprise everyone and throw the ball deep." Except Donovan Warren is smarter than Weis (which sucks for Notre Dame) and broke up the pass.

Forcier was 23/33 for 240 yards, two TDs, and an interception to go along with 70 rushing yards and another TD on the ground. He was the author of several of the game's most electrifying plays, including the scrambling, game-winning TD pass to Greg Mathews. But the most exciting play for Michigan was when Forcier, on a pass play against a Cover Zero defense, rolled right, planted his right foot in front of Notre Dame linebacker Darius Fleming, and watched Fleming fall down before sprinting 31 yards past the defense for a touchdown. Denard Robinson might be the "Lightning" bolt of the two quarterbacks, but ABC analyst Matt Millen deemed Forcier a "stud bolt," which . . . hey, despite its homoeroticism, I'll take it.

Can we please, please, PUH-LEEZE see more Brandon Minor on offense? I've been saying this since before the 2008 season - Minor is the best running back on the team. Not Carlos Brown. Not Sam McGuffie when he was still here. The coaches may have started Brown because Brown had been healthy and started last week, but I believe Minor only had three or four carries in the first half. And on those three or four carries, he had 26 yards. Forcier was keeping the ball too much on the read option and Rodriguez was calling too many pass plays. Minor needs the ball. He had 16 carries total for 106 yards (6.6 yards per carry) and one TD. Brown showed good hands on two catches, but Minor has the ability to outrun people and break tackles, something Brown struggles with. Minor also seems to have a better handle on when to cut upfield on those zone stretch plays.

Offensive game ball goes to . . . Forcier (2) for the second week in a row. Mathews had the game-winning TD, Darryl Stonum had a 94-yard kickoff return TD, Minor had 106 yards and a TD. But Forcier played well throughout the game and went 6-for-7 on the game-winning drive, not to mention his long run for a TD.

Defensive game ball goes to . . . Steve Brown (2), who seems to have found a home at the SAM linebacker spot. He finished the game with 6 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, and a forced fumble. And despite the fact that Notre Dame running back Armando Allen had 139 yards, Brown held up well at the point of attack and forced Allen to cut some outside runs up the field. Unfortunately, Michigan's inside linebackers - especially Obi Ezeh - had a poor tackling day.

Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . Carlos Brown (1). Brown has big-play potential and probably catches the ball better than Brandon Minor, but he's not as good of a runner. Brown had 4 carries for -3 yards. Put him in the slot or in two-back sets, but Minor should be in the backfield most of the time.

Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . Boubacar Cissoko (1). This one has many levels. First of all, Cissoko allowed two touchdowns on Saturday, both against Golden Tate. On the first, Tate ran a hitch near the goal-line and Cissoko just gave him too much of a cushion. On the second, Tate ran a hitch on the right sideline and Cissoko missed the tackle. Secondly, next week Michigan plays Eastern Michigan, so hopefully Cissoko can get some rest for his aching shoulder. Third, Cissoko had way too much TV time for a guy who was getting burned left and right. He crossed his arms in denial at one point, and after a Michael Floyd catch and tackle along the left sideline, Cissoko pushed Floyd back down to the ground as Floyd tried to get up. It was a classless play that deserved a 15-yard penalty.

As far as my predictions went for the game . . . they were so-so.

Clausen will throw for over 300 yards.
He threw for 339. Michigan couldn't muster a pass rush against Notre Dame's maximum protection schemes, and Michael Floyd is better than anyone we have at cornerback.

Golden Tate and Michael Floyd will each have a 40+ yard catch.
Neither did. Floyd had a 37-yarder and Tate's long was 27. Tate dropped at least one pass that would have gone for 40+ yards, so they were close.

Brandon Graham will record at least two sacks.
Again, the maximum protection pass blocking schemes worked pretty well for Notre Dame. They didn't trust their offensive line against the likes of Graham and Mike Martin, which was probably smart. Nobody from Michigan recorded a sack.

Either Brandon Minor or Carlos Brown will go over 100 yards rushing.
Minor ended with 106.

Tate Forcier will throw his first collegiate interception.
Safety Kyle McCarthy picked off Forcier in the fourth quarter when Greg Mathews ran a bad route.

Here's the helpful box score from Mgoblue.com.

Picture via TheWolverine.com.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Preview: Michigan vs. Notre Dame

Old rivals come together on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. Two teams that have been down for a couple years suddenly have reason for optimism, but one is going to end this weekend disappointed with at least a few fans calling for their coach's head.

Rush Offense vs. Notre Dame Rush Defense
This is the one area where Michigan should have a big advantage. With three seniors and two juniors on the offensive line, not to mention four returning starters, Michigan should be able to run the ball. Notre Dame's defensive front seven have decent size, but they're not very stout. Notre Dame will have to stunt linebackers to get penetration, but Michigan's running backs have the speed and elusiveness to make the Irish defense pay for missed tackles and blitzing out of control. Michigan can run the ball out of the I-formation even if starting fullback Mark Moundros misses the game Saturday, and the Wolverines showed last year that they can run the ball from the shotgun spread formation as well.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense
I'm not too concerned about Michigan's ability to protect the quarterback, but the Notre Dame defensive backfield should be significantly better than Western Michigan's. Tate Forcier should start and play the majority of the game, but Michigan's receivers might not be quite as open as they were last week. The Wolverines should be able to take advantage of mismatches in the slot and at tight end, but I don't expect the receivers on the outside to be able to get deep on the Irish defensive backfield. I expect this to be a bit of a dink-and-dunk offensive week for Michigan, getting Martavious Odoms, Kelvin Grady, and Carlos Brown open in the flats and hoping they can make safeties and linebackers miss. However, Notre Dame has experienced safeties and I doubt the downfield passing game will be a huge threat.
Advantage: Notre Dame

Rush Defense vs. Notre Dame Rush Offense
With Michigan's improved tackling and speed this season, open space may not be their biggest enemy anymore. However, if Notre Dame lines up in power run formations and tries to come right at Michigan, that could be problematic. Notre Dame has a stable of solid (albeit unspectacular) running backs, and Michigan's linebackers - particularly Obi Ezeh - have struggled with taking on lead blocks and filling gaps. Notre Dame also has the ability to attack SAM linebacker Steve Brown in the run game, which should be Brown's first real test against taking on kick-out blocks. Nose tackle Mike Martin and defensive end Brandon Graham can probably cause fits for Notre Dame's offensive line, but the Irish might be able to take advantage of the opposite side of the line.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Defense vs. Notre Dame Pass Offense
This part scares me. A lot. Michigan fans might hate The Emu and laugh about his Yakety Sax performance from two years ago, but Clausen has turned into a pretty good quarterback. He has a very strong arm and he's accurate (15-18 last week). Michigan is breaking in two new starting safeties (one of whom got beat for a 73-yard TD pass against WMU), and even with two good cornerbacks, the Wolverine defensive backs are probably no match for wide receivers Golden Tate and Michael Floyd. Tate abused Michigan in the 2008 version of this game, and Michael Floyd abused Boubacar Cissoko in the 2008 Army All-American game. Defensive coordinator Greg Robinson has to decide whether he wants to keep Donovan Warren in position as the field cornerback or if he wants Warren to lock up with Michael Floyd wherever Floyd goes on the field. Lining up Floyd outside and Tate in the slot could force some mismatches I don't even want to mention . . . but I will - Golden Tate in man coverage with Steve Brown. Yikes. Ugh. Please. God. No. I would rather see Cissoko follow Tate into the slot and have Brown cover a third wide receiver on the outside, such as Duval Kamara or Robby Parris. And I haven't even mentioned Notre Dame tight end Kyle Rudolph, although I expect him to have a minimal impact because I think Brown and Obi Ezeh will be decent enough at covering him. Clausen will end this game with many yards . . . and after being sacked a few times.
Advantage: Notre Dame

Special Teams
Golden Tate is a talented runner, but Zoltan Mesko is a talented punter. Michigan's coverage teams have been pretty solid, and I'll expect that they remain that way. After last year, I still don't trust Michigan's returners to hold onto the ball. I've always contended that Greg Mathews is a solid punt return man, if only because he's sure-handed. Neither placekicker has much status in the world, so I'll say Zoltan > Tate.
Advantage: Michigan

Final Predictions
  • Clausen will throw for over 300 yards.
  • Golden Tate and Michael Floyd will each have a 40+ yard catch.
  • Brandon Graham will record at least two sacks.
  • Either Brandon Minor or Carlos Brown will go over 100 yards rushing.
  • Tate Forcier will throw his first collegiate interception.
  • Final score: Notre Dame 31, Michigan 27

Monday, September 7, 2009

Highlights: Michigan vs. Western Michigan

A user named WolverineHistorian at Youtube already put up highlights of the Michigan vs. WMU game. And believe it or not, just like in the game, mostly good stuff happens in the video.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Michigan 31, Western Michigan 7

Wow. That's the one word that kept coming to mind as I watched the game yesterday. This is such an utterly different team than the 2008 incarnation that it's difficult to imagine Steve Threet and Nick Sheridan running this type of offense.

It's clear that Tate Forcier is the driving force behind this offense. Any argument to the contrary would be insanity. He didn't run the ball particularly well and needs to work on his reads on the zone read option. That being said, except for a couple hitches, Forcier threw the ball very well and directed the offense better than anyone else on the roster can. He looked like a veteran quarterback on the first TD pass when he scrambled and directed Junior Hemingway to head downfield. His second TD pass to Hemingway brought back memories of Henne-to-Manningham. And Forcier's play action fakes on Rich Rodriguez's version of the waggle pass were excellent, not to mention his ability to square his shoulders and fling the ball to Koger for a TD and then that one-handed snag seen above.

Denard Robinson was adequate. His 43-yard touchdown run was, quite simply, electric. But keep in mind that it came on a broken play where he mishandled the shotgun snap; he was supposed to run the ball left or perhaps pitch it to Martavious Odoms who was coming behind him for a potential end around. If you take away that 43-yard run, Robinson ran the ball 10 times for 31 yards. He completed two short passes; missed badly on another in which he and the receiver weren't on the same page; and threw a dangerous deep jump ball to Mathews that ended up incomplete. Robinson's body language and decision making indicated that the game was moving a little too fast for him. Things will slow down for him and he could be a star down the road, but that time isn't now.

The running game was a bit of a disappointment for me. Forcier made some poor reads, and Rodriguez seemed more interested in getting the ball on the perimeter than taking advantage of his stable of running backs and WMU's poor defensive line. Some of this may have been due to the fact that starting fullback Mark Moundros was injured on special teams early in the game; without their best lead blocker, perhaps Rodriguez and Magee preferred to keep the ball on the outside. Regardless, the offensive line was a strength and even though starting running back Carlos Brown finished with 5.4 yards per carry, I feel Michigan could be even better at running the ball in the coming weeks.

Defensively, I was impressed with Greg Robinson's schemes and Michigan's tackling. There were several plays on Saturday where I thought WMU's running backs would have broken tackles if they were facing the 2008 defense. But Michigan's defenders seemed to stick to ballcarriers like glue. Not only were they tackling better, but the defense was hurrying to the football. If the first guy didn't make the play, usually a second guy was there ready to clean up the mess.

In the second half, WMU quarterback Tim Hiller started getting rid of the ball quicker. He found a rhythm and started hitting underneath passes to his receivers. Greg Robinson might be served well by disguising coverages on the outside, changing the look from cover 2 man to a cover 2 zone. Suddenly, instead of driving the cornerback off with his initial burst, that cornerback is sitting underneath the quick hitch to the outside. A couple well orchestrated disguised coverages might be just enough to make Hiller think twice, which would give Brandon Graham, Mike Martin, and the rest of the defensive line enough time to get to the quarterback.

Offensive game ball goes to . . . Tate Forcier. He finished 13/20 for 179 yards, 3 TDs, and - most importantly - zero interceptions, fumbles, or sacks in his first game at Michigan.

Defensive game ball goes to . . . I was tempted to say Donovan Warren, but I'll say Steve Brown. He finished third on the team with six tackles, including five solo. His new position at SAM linebacker appeals to his strengths, which are speed and physicality. Warren made several tackles and played very physical, but he picked up two pass interference penalties and a personal foul.

Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . Denard Robinson. Until he can run the offense more smoothly and completely, he should be behind center less. I felt like the offense got bogged down when he was in the game. His passing was subpar and jittery, and it seemed like WMU's defense didn't respect his ability to do anything but run. (Honorable mention: Nick Sheridan and David Cone.)

Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . J.T. Floyd. Floyd was in there as a backup to Boubacar Cissoko once Cissoko aggravated his shoulder injury. But especially in next week's game against Notre Dame, with Jimmy Clausen throwing to Golden Tate and Michael Floyd, Michigan can't afford to put Floyd in there at cornerback. He got burned a couple times - including the 73-yard TD pass, on which Troy Woolfolk was also at fault - and he's probably just too slow to be playing corner. If Michigan had any depth at the CB position, Floyd would probably be a safety. Hopefully Cissoko gets healthy and freshman Justin Turner steps up his game in the coming week. Otherwise, I'm afraid we should expect a rain of deep balls from Clausen next week.

MGoBlue's official game information.