Preview: Sugar Bowl - Michigan vs. Virginia Tech

Juliana Daniell is a former Virginia Tech swimmer
(image via Busted Coverage)

Rush Offense vs. Virginia Tech Rush Defense
Michigan has the #12 rushing offense in the country at just over 235 yards per game.  Quarterback Denard Robinson averages 96 yards a game and Fitzgerald Toussaint averages 91.  They also average 5.6 and 5.8 yards per carry, respectively.  So the Hokies are going to have their hands full, especially since that rushing combo has taken off over the last three games of the regular season and Toussaint has settled into a groove. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is the #15 rushing defense in the country and gives up only 107 yards a game.  Something has to give, and it will probably be Virginia Tech's rushing defense.  Aside from Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech's solid rush defense numbers have come against mediocre or horrible rushing offenses.  The Yellow Jackets, whose option offense is #2 in the country at running the ball, racked up 243 yards on 5.0 yards an attempt.  Furthermore, Virginia Tech's defensive line and linebackers are small-ish, young-ish, and injured-ish.
Advantage: Michigan


Pass Offense vs. Virginia Tech Pass Defense
Due to a late-season surge by Denard Robinson, Michigan's passing efficiency has improved to #40 in the country, despite being #90 in yardage.  Michigan passes less often than it has since the late '80s, but the threat of Robinson and Toussaint on the ground opens up some potential for big plays down the field.  But Virginia Tech's defensive backfield is as talented as any that Michigan has faced this season, and Jayron Hosley is the best cover corner the Wolverines will see.  Furthermore, defensive coordinator Bud Foster will send an array of blitzes at Michigan, which has flummoxed Robinson at times throughout the year.  The Hokies average almost 3 sacks per game, while Michigan gives up just over 1.  This is probably the key matchup of the day.  If Robinson can have a day like he did against Ohio State (14/17, 3 touchdowns, 0 picks), then the outcome will probably be favorable for Michigan.  If he reverts to early-season form, then it could be a frustrating day.

Rush Defense vs. Virginia Tech Rush Offense
Virginia Tech has a dangerous and consistent running back in the form of All-ACC selection David Wilson, who has incredible balance and good speed.  Wilson and 6'6", 254 lb. quarterback Logan Thomas are both formidable runners, although the backup running backs are virtually non-entities.  The Hokies average almost 189 yards per game for the #29 rushing attack in the nation.  The offensive line averages 304 lbs. and is a very experienced unit, with a glaring weakness at left tackle and a so-so center.  Meanwhile, Michigan will likely be without starting defensive tackle Will Heininger, who is solid against the run but suffered a sprained ankle in bowl practices.  The front four will probably consist of ends Craig Roh and Ryan Bergen, nose tackle Mike Martin, and William Campbell starting in Heininger's spot.  This will be a test for Campbell, whose 5-star potential has thus far been unrealized.  Michigan's linebackers are thick and shouldn't struggle too much with Thomas's size, but Wilson's speed might make him difficult to track down in open space.  Martin and Van Bergen have been playing great in the last third of the season, so they should at least be able to hold their own against Wilson and Co.
Advantage: Push


Pass Defense vs. Virginia Tech Pass Offense
Michigan's secondary is the weak link on the team.  If defensive coordinator Greg Mattison's pass rushers don't get to the quarterback, the corners and safeties can be beaten.  Luckily for Michigan, Virginia Tech's receivers aren't particularly dangerous.  They can get open and catch the ball somewhat consistently, but they probably won't be able to beat Michigan over the top without some good play action from Thomas/Wilson.  If Martin and Van Bergen can bottle up the running game without needing too much support from the secondary, Michigan ought to be able to keep receivers Jarrett Boykin and Danny Coale in check.  Thomas has a good deep ball and 59% accuracy, so he might be able to hurt Michigan if his offensive line gives him time.  I expect Mattison to blitz frequently.  I also expect to see more three-man lines with Heininger out, because the top two remaining defensive tackles - Martin and Campbell - can't play the entire game.  That means we might see some more creative blitz packages with four linebackers on the field or Frank Clark as a pass rushing specialist.

Predictions

• Virginia Tech sacks Robinson twice
• Cam Gordon sees his first significant playing time of the year
• Michigan rushes for 225 yards
• Logan Thomas looks ineffectual
• Michigan 35, Virginia Tech 24