Michigan's lineup compared to where it should be:
- QB:
Joe Milton Dylan McCaffrey Cade McNamaraJoe Milton - RB: Hassan Haskins
- WR:
Nico CollinsCornelius Johnson - WR: Ronnie Bell
- WR:
Giles JacksonA.J. Henning - TE: Nick Eubanks
- LT:
Ryan HayesKarsen Barnhart - LG:
Chuck FiliagaTrevor Keegan - C:
Andrew VastardisZach Carpenter - RG:
Andrew Stueber Zak ZinterChuck Filiaga - RT:
Jalen MayfieldAndrew Stueber
- DE:
Aidan HutchinsonCarlo Kemp - DT:
Carlo KempChris Hinton, Jr. - NT: Donovan Jeter
- DE: Kwity Paye
- Viper: Michael Barrett
- MIKE:
Cam McGroneAdam Shibley - WILL: Josh Ross
- CB: Gemon Green
- CB:
Ambry ThomasVincent Gray - S:
Brad HawkinsHunter Reynolds - S: Dax Hill
Going back six weeks to opening day, Michigan has 8 backups playing. And if you count the opt-outs, there are 12 positions affected. This is a MASH unit unlike anything I can remember at Michigan.
Hit the jump for more.
The quarterback position. Cade McNamara earned his first college start, and he started 4/4 with a touchdown drive on the second possession. However, that second possession saw a defender land on him and he injured his right shoulder. Backup Joe Milton came in for a bit, but McNamara returned and completed 8/21 passes the rest of the way, often holding his right arm limply between plays and series. He finished 12/25 for 91 yards. Milton wasn't any better, completing 1/3 passes for 21 yards, and most of those 21 yards came from Ronnie Bell's YAC abilities. Combined, the quarterbacks were 13/28 for 112 yards. I would imagine that Milton will probably be the starter next week against Maryland. I also imagine that will not go well.
Lack of downfield shots. If I recall correctly, Michigan attempted 1 pass of more than 15 yards, an overthrown fade to Cornelius Johnson by McNamara. Trailing for almost the entire game and losing by 10 late, Michigan attempted a total of 1 downfield pass. Josh Gattis's mismanagement of this offense is mind-blowing. I'm sure the axe is going to fall on Don Brown, but I thought Gattis might be able to save his job if he rounded into form like he did last year. There are zero signs of his figuring it out.
Hassan Haskins was a bit of a bright spot. Haskins ran 17 times for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns. This is second 100+ yard effort in two weeks. The best thing about Haskins is that he seems to be the one guy in Michigan's backfield who can create yards on his own. The run game in general was pretty good (6.4 yards/carry as a team), but there were of course some questionable play designs, run calls, etc., because that's just what Josh Gattis does. Michigan has to be one of the easiest short yardage teams to scheme against, because there is no creativity involved even for a team that's clearly having problems up front.
The offensive line. Whoever's coaching Michigan in 2021 - whether it's Jim Harbaugh or someone else - I hope they keep Ed Warinner. I do think Warinner is doing a pretty good job with what he has. But the offensive line position is a huge mess. Consider this: In Rich Rodriguez's disastrous 2008 season, two players started at the same position in all twelve games (center David Molk and right guard David Moosman). In just six games this year, only one player has accomplished that (Chuck Filiaga at left guard), and by the end of this game, he was playing right guard.
Gemon Green is good? Looking for a bright spot to wrap up the post, it appears that Gemon Green is pretty solid. He and Vincent Gray have quietly improved throughout the season - though some scheme changes have helped - and I think that might be the only position group that's better in game six than it was earlier in the year. They're not grabbing as much, and they're playing with better technique overall.
This team has taken a hit at just about every position group on the field. Couple that with a clear lack of talent evaluation and player development and it is going to be a long season. We had all hoped that Jim was the prodigal son coming back to lead Michigan to its former glory, but the reality is just the opposite. He has rubbed people wrong, his teams look as confused playing as he does coaching on the sidelines, his player development hasn't been what we had hoped and his lack of team depth is worrisome. This isn't just a down year, this is a continuation of a downturn the last 3 seasons. Michigan has invested heavily into paying it's coaches top tier $$ and the ROI hasn't been stellar. Winning in football has been dominated by a half dozen teams over the last 8-10 years. We have witnessed some teams move up and others move out, so being competitive isn't off the table. This team has zero identity and nobody has rallied them as a team to light their competitive spirit. The choice by our AD is going to be a tough one.
ReplyDelete"We have witnessed some teams move up and others move out, so being competitive isn't off the table."
DeleteThe only team I can think of that has moved up is Florida. Do you have others in mind? Georgia, maybe ... but they have to find a way to beat Alabama.
I've thought a lot about what it would take, in today's world of college football, to build a program to compete with the likes of Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State. I keep expecting Texas and Southern Cal to make a move, given they have proximity to a deep talent pool, but they're not doing it.
For a program like Michigan to gain access to that level of play would take several years: with very good coaching and very good recruiting. Good coaching to win games they perhaps should not using inferior talent to Ohio State's; and good recruiting to incrementally capitalize the perception of Michigan as an ascending program. In the last several years, Harbaugh and his staff have failed on both counts.
It's not rocket science, but it must be more challenging than it appears; otherwise, Georgia, Texas, and USC would be in the thick of it. Can Michigan crack the code, even with a new staff? Maybe. But I'm not so sure. Perhaps if Ohio State blunders. But if OSU continues to be a machine, probably not.
It is very difficult. You see so many teams fail. Even ones with better access to talent, weather, academics. TAMU, FSU, USC, Texas, etc. I think people need to realize it's more likely that we are Illinois than OSU.
DeleteI don't think that anyone feels this is an easy fix and to compete at the level of Alabama, OSU and even Clemson/ ND right now. We have watched as 2-3 teams have been very dominating in the playoff picture, but there does seem to be 1 or 2 teams each year who make it in that otherwise would be a surprise to start the season.
DeleteBased just of previous years history you can see..
2020- LSU
2019- ND
2018- Georgia
2017- Washington
2016- MSU
2015- Oregon and FSU
Most of these teams are failing to repeat consistently, so there is the possibility that a well coached team from a power 5 conference can make it in aside from the 2-3 teams that are always at the top.
To be a repeat contender you are going to need solid coaching, a deep talent pool or the ability to develop a deep talent pool and some form of luck with the schedule/ wins. I would question our coaching, player development and ability to recruit for need right now.
Come on. Illinois is 3-9, 2-10, 4-8, and 6-7 over the past four years under Lovie Smith. Meanwhile, Michigan has been winning 9.4 games per year under Jim Harbaugh. It took Smith three years just to get 9 wins.
DeleteWe're not Ohio State, but we're not Illinois.
To clarify, I mean it's easier for Michigan as a program to go (post-Harbaugh) to where the Illinois program is/was than to where the OSU program is. More likely to win 5-7 games a year than 11-12.
DeleteThere is a sentiment that 9 wins is some kind of floor for this program but a) the last 2 guys failed to hit that and b) there's examples all around where very successful programs fall off. Colorado, Arkansas, Purdue were Top 10 programs over a decade at one point. Illinois in the 80s and 90s was a mid-level Big Ten program that sometimes had a good enough year to make a Rose or Sugar Bowl.
It could be MUCH worse than having a HC that the NFL is still trying to hire even after a bad season.
-Lank
It's crazy, but Cornerback might be our best position group. Certainly the most improved
ReplyDeleteWhat does it say when the guy touted as the next big thing (Joe Milton), comes in and the team deflates? The coaches don't trust him throwing, and he looks scared as a ball carrier. He was just the starter last week, but when he went in yesterday, it looked like we were down to our third or fourth option
RB is our best position but it's also the least important.
DeleteThey're saying Milton was battling an injury, too, so I don't know if that factored in. He tried to run over people instead of running out of bounds, so I'm not sure that I believe he's actually injured that much.
DeleteGuys are checked out. There is physicality to this team (Haskins maybe). They are mentally burnt out, they have no escape outside of football because they are trapped in their apartments and inside the football facility. Other teams are doing fine with it, but they play in conferences that aren’t expecting perfection to get a season in an 8 weeks. It seems like cheering, coaching and playing for Michigan has become a chore. There is no excitement or joy in it at the moment. A breath of fresh air is needed, with a coach that doesn’t have “the savior” expectations. Those expectations will in turn need to be earned with on field results. Michigan (sounds like university wide) is broken, until there is a change of attitude from administration, fans and the program, this is the state we will continue to be in.
ReplyDeleteWell I don't know about university wide. The basketball teams and other sports seem to be thriving. But they don't have the same level of fan "support".
DeleteMike Zordich needs to be given credit fot DB improvement. He's a coach that needs to stay too.
ReplyDeleteThe interior defensive line was pushed around again. It isn't big enough. Carlo Kemp has had too much expected of him again this year. He is not a nose guard type, but it seems he's expected to play bigger than he is. It isn't working. It didn't work last year either.
The LB crew isn't performing well either.
They showed the drop off in defensive stats the last 2 years. They should have pointed out the loss off Greg Mattison, Chris Partridge, and Anthony Campanile.
Im still wondering what the offense would be like with Dylan McCaffrey. Why was Milton moved ahead of both McNamara and McCaffrey? It's easy to see Milton is not better than McNamara. And it was easy to see last year McCaffrey was better than him. What foes Jim Harbaugh going to do now that people can see certain coaches are not good coaches?
And what's going to happen with Zack Charbonnet? He's not getting playing time at Michigan.
I think Milton was the upside play. They thought he could learn on the job and that they could coach around his limitations. Doesn't appear to be the case but McNamara isn't a savior either.
DeleteMcNamara is definitely no savior, but Milton is falling apart, worse with every snap. He's on his way to being the worst QB of the Harbaugh era, including JOK
DeleteLet's sanity check this.
DeleteOKorn 54%, 6.2 YPA, 2 TD, 6 INTs in 2017 (5th year)
Milton 57%, 7.6 YPA, 4 TD, 4 INTs in 2020 (3rd year)
*on his way
DeleteMy question to the staff was you could see that Cade could only buckle his chin strap with only his left hand. This was an obvious sign that he had a right shoulder injury. Why keep him in there ? What happened to Milton ? Did he practice all there for just the Minnesota defense ? How can he look all Big Ten in 1 game then struggle so much. I also did not get why we are not doing jet sweeps or throwing deep.
ReplyDeleteI know firing Harbaugh is what everyone wants, why do you think it is going to be different with the next flavor of the month ? Look at Frost at Nebraska.
Milton was a feel good story, but ended up a fairy tale. He's JOK bad, maybe worse
DeleteI don't necessarily want Harbaugh fired myself. But I do want him to make better choices for coaches on his staff. As it is today tje only coachas I want to stay is Mike Zordich (I talked about him above), and Ed Warinner. All others need to be replaced. And Harbaugh needs to be very careful who he chooses. There's lots of great assistants in college football, in both Div 1 and Div 2. Look at colleges that have powerful offenses every year. Pick coaches from them. Look at teams that have powerful defenses every year. Pick coaches from them . i would even try to get Jim McElwain nack and let him run the entire offense. He probably wouldnt want to be an assistant. But I would try. I would try for an assistant at Oklahoma and offer hom the OC.
DeleteWhat I am saying is there has to be better coaches out there.
And again I ask, where is Zack Charbonnet?? Heading to the transfer portal?
joseph dreamed dreams
I don't want to fire Harbaugh. The best alternative candidates are a guy who is barely 500 in the Big12 and a guy who couldn't beat Brady Hoke with OSU's talent. The guys who everyone wanted a couple years ago are mostly flops like Moorhead. Remember when Les Miles was the guy people wanted if we couldn't get JH? How many other guys are we going to get that the NFL would be all over in a heartbeat?
DeleteThis is a rough year but well...it's a rough year. Ride it out, learn from it, get better.
This is a bit of research I did on replaceing coaches for those clamouring for it.
ReplyDeleteAfter today’s result, I got curious about how hard it is to replace legendary coaches so I did a bit of research. It is really interesting to see that certain schools have maintained high coaching standards over the long term, while others really flail. Mostly it takes a few tries to get it right.
If we are being honest, one of our biggest problems is that out main rival has had the most consistently high level coaching since the 60’s in football. An incredible journey, as far as I can tell OSU’s floor is our ceiling, amazing consistency with high level results. You have to think it is luck but you only get lucky so many times until it is a skill.
A look at a number of programs:
Florida: It tool them 3 attempts and 6 years to move on from Urban. Would consider Mullen a suitable replacement as he has had 3 good seasons.
Florida State: They are on their 3rd coach and are in disarray. However, they had Fisher who was really good for a few years. Bowden wasn’t good in the 2000’s but lights out in the 80-90’s.
Miami – Impacted by cheating scandals – They had a very long run of good coaches but have now been looking for a replacement for 15 years since Coker left. They have tried 4 different coaches to no real sustained success. Miami has had 1 good season and 0 championship level seasons in since Coker.
Texas - Brown dropped off after 2009, the program has been in disarray since only being ranked 3 times, since 2010, at the end of the season. They are likely to be looking for a new coach this year. It has been 7 years since brown left and they have been through 2 coaches. Texas has had no good or championship level seasons.
Norte Dame - Each Lou Successor had at least 1 good season, but that was it. They have hit with Kelly, their 4th attempt in 13 years.
Oklahoma - They have had 11 years without a good coach since 1967. Consistently reload and find talented coaches.
Alabama – They had 2 failed hires in 7 years after Bear Bryant retired and 3 failed hires in 10 years since Stallings. We know the rest of that story.
USC – This is complicated by sanctions but they have had 4 coaches in 11 years to replace Pete, in those years they have only had 3 good seasons.
UCLA – Has had 5 good seasons since Terry Donahue left in 20+ years they have had 5 attempts to get it right and last year was a nightmare.
Michigan – on its 3rd attempt in 13 years. I would note that Harbaugh is a solution as he has had 3 good years and 2 bad. However, the issue is with the no championship level seasons. Where as Mullen and Kelly have both had better seasons than Harbaugh (2 losses or less).
If you look at successful replacements after a period of struggle:
Florida – Mullen has a 2 loss season in his second season.
Notre Dame – Kelly had a championship year in his 3 year
Realistically this is Jim’s 6th year and he has been ok. He is technically a replacement for Lloyd, he just doesn’t seem to have the ceiling we want. As noted earlier our program is a low ceiling (3 losses), Jim’s run would be the worst in OSU history but he is our best replacement and not far off Lloyd.
I don’t like to be too reactionary, but I think a lot of successful coaches in todays game win immediately. However, Jim had a lot of building to do with UM and replaced a failed coach.
Personally, I think it is hard to replace a legendary football coach. This program is in good shape, but I suspect our ceiling is 3 loses and floor is 5, maybe he pulls a Lloyd at some point and wins. Realistically, OSU as a program is far enough distanced that they will likely be a loss for a while.
Keen to hear peoples rational thoughts, it is a big roll of the dice replacing Jim. He was our moonshot. I am not sure who his potential replacements would be.
A good staff has to be built, not just get a good head coach.
DeleteMichigan had Greg Mattison and didn't see how good he was.
There are good coaches all across the NCAA. I guess someone is going to have to take the time to carefully look across the entire Nation and build a staff, choice of head coach being equally important with all the other coaches, not superior in importance.
The biggest area that needs to be addressed is defensive line. It is very poorly played now. The interior is pushed all around. Michigan cannot be elite with that serious flaw.
joseph dreamed dreams
The last guy to beat Brian Kelly is Jim Harbaugh. That was all the way back in last year.
DeleteWell, a lot depends on what's *really* going on inside the program and inside the coaching staff. It *might* be that this year truly is an anomaly; that is, it was anticipated to be a rebuilding year, and with the COVID constraints it just put a wrench into everything. Or it *might* be that the staff is in open turmoil; lost, unsure what to do, and a team that's quit on them.
DeleteIf it's the former, then retaining Harbaugh might be the better option, for the reasons you cite about the risk of coaching turnover. But if it's the latter, then I don't see how you can keep a head coach in place where everyone -- staff and players -- are not united behind him. I doubt anything really resolves between now and next season.
I'm of the opinion that Harbaugh is finding out he's just not that good a *head* coach; that the CEO-type things that come with that job are a disappointment and distraction to him; and that he's let that area of his role drift and lose focus. His coaching hires and disjointed recruiting approach seems to bear this out.
The answer is not to bring in another HC and have Harbaugh remain on staff as OC, or whatever. I doubt that dynamic would work.
What *might* work is having Harbaugh remain as the HC, but do a staff reorganization where a trusted former HC is brought in for Harbaugh to delegate certain things to, and to keep the program focused. Harbaugh could then do *some* HC things, not do other HC things, and perhaps regain some focus and energy.
If not that, then it's time to clean house, with all the potential risk of doing that. Because status-quo ain't gonna cut it.
I feel as though Harbaugh has lost it mentally. In listening to his press conferences and post game shows, something is off with him. He seems to stutter and loose his chain of thought. This is a sign of diminished mental capacity. That being said I think the program takes 2 steps back if he is replaced. The college game is based mainly on players vs coaching. Is Ryan Day that much a better coach than Tom Allen. No, he has better players than Indiana.
DeleteIf you look at what we lost last year vs this year, of course we were going to take a step back. You have 3 returning starters on offense and 3 on defense with the opt outs and the injuries.
2017 and 2019 were taking a step back - now, we've collapsed
Delete2015, 16, 18 were steps forward. 2017 and 2020 were steps back.
DeleteWho is going to bring us back ? The minute we fire Harbaugh we are .500 team at best. Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, and OSU are all getting better. Do you really think a first year coach will beat any of those teams. JJ will be a freshman QB.
DeleteDo you think if we hire Matt Campbell or Luke Fickell, they will vault us to 8 or 9 wins ?
We're getting worse - that's the problem. Year 6 and still no identity on Offense. Year 5 with Brown, and the DL & CB recruiting do not match his style
ReplyDeleteThe team looks as deflated as the end of the RR and Hoke eras. Time to move on, but I think it will take Harbaugh resigning
Yeah, I'm inclined to give Warriner a pass given all the chaos on the position. It started from a rebuild and now is a full-on disaster mitigation.
ReplyDeleteIf there is one coach I would fire it would not be Harbaugh or Brown but Gattis. Harbaugh took a reasonable risk but last year was a very rough start and this year has been worse. There are some suboptimal situations to be sure but this is pretty woeful for a team with Michigan's overall talent level. The offensive scheme continues to make no sense. At least on defense you can see them trying to zone to mitigate the issues on DL and DB.
Agree about Green. I really like Corum as well. There are some good pieces on this roster but some big holes to fill in next years lineup.
-Lank
I am of the opinion that Harbaugh has already made the decision and everyone in the program knows it. He's going to the NFL and that's why this team plays so poorly. They're waiting for the next regime. My only real questions is, who's taking over.
ReplyDeleteI don't feel the need to watch a team that moved Joe Milton over Dylan McCaffrey, and Cade McNamara,continues to put Carlo Kemp at nose duties, doesn't use Zach Charbonnet to carry the ball, or get Chris Evans more touches.
ReplyDeleteI would neber have imagined this is where Jim Harbaugh would have the team in 6 years.
I'm always going to watch this team unless they hire Art Briles.
DeleteI watched up until I saw them working on Cade McNamara on the sidelines. I looked some other good football, then went on with errands for the day. Same thing i will do next Saturday.
Deletejoseph dreamed dreams
While I will always watch, for the first time in the 45 years I have been watching Michigan Football, I find myself tuning in other games when we play so poorly. I get more enjoyment from watching a well coached Iowa or Iowa State team than I do watching the painful play of Michigan.
ReplyDeleteI do the same.
DeleteIts hardest to see the defensive line get pushed around. It might be hard to watch what Ohio Sts offensive line does to them.
joseph dreamed dreams