Thursday, December 17, 2020

Addressing Michigan's Coaching Situation

 

Sherrone Moore (image via 247 Sports)

Following a 2-4 season and five straight losses to Ohio State - plus an embarrassing loss to Michigan State in 2020 - questions about Jim Harbaugh's status as head coach have been non-stop. I have a hard time calling for coaches' jobs, because as a (lower level) coach myself, I know some of the struggles with coaching.

Of course, college coaches have a different situation than high school coaches, because they have more power and more control over which coaches and players enter their program. But there are similarities in that your team's success is subject to injuries, off-the-field behavior of young people, administrative limits, etc.

So here I would like to address which coaches I would prioritize bringing back, from highest priority to lowest:

Sherrone Moore (Tight Ends): Moore is Michigan's top recruiter, especially in-state. According to 247 Sports, he's the #6 recruiter in the country and #2 in the Big Ten (behind Ohio State's Brian Hartline). I have not been extremely impressed with the performance of Michigan's tight ends over the past couple seasons, but I think that's more of an issue with the structure of the offense than the individual players. Regardless, tight end is a position where you can hide a mediocre X's and O's/technique coach if the guy coaching them can recruit his butt off. And Moore can. He's listed as the primary recruiter for QB J.J. McCarthy, OT Giovanni El-Hadi, C Raheem Anderson II, TE Louis Hansen, LB Tyler McLaurin, and WR Andrel Anthony, and he's the secondary recruiter for RB Donovan Edwards.

Hit the jump for more.


Ed Warinner (Offensive Line Coach): Warinner is not necessarily a standout recruiter, though he has been better than I think some expected when he was hired (#42 in the Big Ten in 2021). However, he has been a very good developer of talent, getting four offensive linemen drafted in the 2020 NFL Draft. That's the first time since 1944 that Michigan had four linemen drafted, and it took 29 rounds for the fourth one that year (you all remember Bob Derleth's run with the Detroit Lions, right?). The 2020 season was not a good one for the offensive line, but Michigan replaced those four starters, had its top two tackles get hurt early, and had its center get hurt late in the year. It was a messy, fluky season.

Jay Harbaugh (Running Backs Coach): A lot of people think Jay Harbaugh only got his job because he's the son of Jim Harbaugh. And they're almost certainly correct. But being hired for the wrong reason doesn't mean he's bad at his job. Harbaugh is the #13 recruiter in the Big Ten, and he's been responsible for getting elite running backs in three straight cycles: Zach Charbonnet, Blake Corum, and Donovan Edwards. Like many, I have been frustrated with the constant rotation at running back, but that's certainly not his decision. The head coach and offensive coordinator make those kinds of decisions. Furthermore, we've seen players develop under him, including Karan Higdon and Hassan Haskins.

Mike Zordich (Cornerbacks Coach): Zordich has proven time and time again to be an excellent developer of talent. He takes guys with perhaps limited physical talent and turns them into standout performers. The 2020 season was a fluke when Michigan's defensive backfield got torched early in the year, but that was not the case as the year went on. Despite playing only six games, first-year starter Gemon Green is #2 in the conference with 9 pass breakups. Granted, some of that comes from being targeted a lot after his early struggles, but he still held up. Meanwhile, Vincent Gray on the other side went from being a huge liability to somewhat invisible later in the year. I wish Zordich were a better recruiter, but if he can get some help there from Jay Harbaugh or Sherrone Moore to bring in big-time talent, Michigan should be in business.

Jim Harbaugh (Head Coach): Okay, I realize very little of this matters if Harbaugh is gone, because a new head coach would likely clean house except for one or two guys. But performance-wise, I'm more confident in the abilities of the above coaches. I could write pages and pages about Harbaugh, but I do think his track record shows that he is a good coach. He works hard, he has a lot of pride in the program, he has shown flexibility, and he's a positive ambassador for college athletes, championing things like satellite camps, overseas trips, one-time transfer rules, and the Black Lives Matter movement. I'm not saying everybody loves him, but all those things improve the lives of the student-athlete. It's a head-scratcher to me that he has garnered so much negativity in the media. I know a lot of people are itching to offer Iowa State's Matt Campbell the Michigan job, but there's a Matt Campbell every year, whether it's Luke Fickell or whoever's coaching Boise State or Jeff Brohm or some up-and-coming coordinator. For better or worse, there's only one Jim Harbaugh - a guy with NFL connections, a proven track record of success, and connections to the university.

Josh Gattis (Offensive Coordinator/Wide Receivers Coach): In Gattis's two years at Michigan, he has shown flashes of being able to call explosive games . . . and flashes of appearing not to know what the hell he's doing. The first few games of 2019 and four out of six games in 2020 were pretty awful. I do think Gattis looked worse in 2020 for reasons somewhat outside of his control (Nico Collins opting out, injuries on the offensive line), but there were still a number of inexplicable decisions, such as sticking with Joe Milton over Dylan McCaffrey/Cade McNamara, not using more tempo, not running more check-with-me looks, not using the QB in the run game, etc. That being said, Gattis is a good recruiter and has gathered a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball, so you run the risk of scattering a bunch of talented players if you send him packing. People have accused Jim Harbaugh of meddling with Gattis's offense, and I don't know if that's the case or not. The truth is that maybe Harbaugh should meddle, because the offensive game plans seemed more consistent and coherent when Harbaugh was more involved back in 2015 and 2016.

Brian Jean-Mary (Linebackers Coach): Jean-Mary is known as a very good recruiter with ties to Florida and Texas. Having sat down with him in a Zoom clinic during the pandemic, I have to say that I was not very impressed with his personality or his teaching. Don't hear what I'm not saying: I didn't dislike Jean-Mary, but I just felt the clinic and interaction was so-so. Maybe he was just getting his feet under him early in his Michigan tenure, and maybe he was having a bad day. Clearly, Jaydon Hood and Junior Colson liked him well enough to commit, so there's that. Overall, I think Jean-Mary is a good recruiter and the jury is out on him as a coach, so do with that what you will.

Don Brown (Defensive Coordinator): Brown is an excellent football coach, period. There's no denying that. He was good at UConn, UMass, Boston College, and Michigan. But sometimes things just fall apart. Maybe it's recruiting. Maybe other coaches just figure you out. Maybe there's tension on the football staff for some reason. Whatever the reason, it seems like Brown has sort of hit a wall at Michigan. This season his biggest downfall was not adjusting quickly enough, especially to Michigan State's offensive gameplan. In the past couple years, he has not figured out a way to slow down Ohio State's offense. There are extenuating factors (injuries to defensive linemen, Ambry Thomas opting out, etc.), but clearly there needs to be a shakeup on the staff somewhere. Jim Harbaugh doesn't need to clean house altogether, but a fresh outlook would be helpful and it might start with Brown.

Bob Shoop (Safeties Coach): There are a lot of rumors with Shoop, but what we know is that he was basically not coaching the safeties this year. He was contributing to the program remotely. There's an old saying that "Your best ability is your availability." It seems like Shoop did not have the ability to be available, so I don't have a whole lot of trust in that changing.

Shaun Nua (Defensive Line Coach): I like Shaun Nua. I think players like him, and so do recruits. But on the recruiting and production fronts, he hasn't done much. I see more potential there on the recruiting side than the player development side. I said above that I think you can hide a good recruiter who's not a great coach, but you can't hide him at the defensive line spot. Defensive line is the most important position group on that side of the ball, and it seems like Michigan took a gamble here with an unproven coach that hasn't really paid off. It's not all bad, because I did see technical improvements from Kwity Paye between 2019 and 2020. But especially at the defensive tackle position, the players just aren't coming along quickly enough.

Ben McDaniels (Quarterbacks Coach): It's hard to separate the faults of the quarterbacks coach from the faults of the offensive coordinator, but the quarterbacks are not performing up to par. Joe Milton is #10 in the conference in completion percentage, #7 in passer rating, and #4 in yards per attempt. He's one of just five quarterbacks without more touchdowns than interceptions, along with MSU's Rocky Lombardi (8 TD, 9 INT), Maryland's Taulia Tagovailoa (7 TD, 7 INT), MSU's Payton Thorne (3 TD, 3 INT), and Nebraska's Luke McCaffrey (1 TD, 6 INT). That's not the company you want to keep. Last year Shea Patterson's completion percentage dropped over eight points from 2018 (64.6% to 56.2%). This is two straight seasons where McDaniels's starting quarterback has a lower completion percentage than 57%. Whether that's the fault of Gattis or McDaniels, that's . . . not good. The last time Michigan had two consecutive years of sub-57% completions from its starting QB was 2011 and 2012, when Denard Robinson played his way into being an NFL running back.

32 comments:

  1. Apparently, there is some Twitter noise about Tim Banks the co-DC at Penn State being a possible hire. A Detroit guy who played at CMU who has been pulling players out of Michigan to PSU. Wondering if he'll get the same job here, or maybe he'll be the new DC if Brown is let go.

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  2. This is a good and constructive approach

    I lean toward starting over, but would be surprised if Warde actually fired Harbaugh

    Coaches that absolutely need to go:
    - Nua (worse DL than we've seen since RR)
    - Mcdaniels (not even sure why/how he got the job)
    - Schoop (wtf happened???)
    - BJM (I know the DL sucked, but these guys got worse ... much worse)
    - Brown (he saved us some losses 2017 & 19, but his recruiting did him in)
    - Gattis (talks more than he delivers)


    Hanging by a thread:
    - jaybaugh (nepotism hire, no reported interest in hiring him away)
    - zordich (NFL guy, not a recruiter)
    - Moore (recruiting coordinator, not a good coach)
    - warriner (recruiting better than I expected, but 2018-19 run games stunk, and 2020 OL - while new - had either game experience or 3+ years on campus. Still got beat up by poor sparty)

    Next year, no excuses. The coaching carousel will be big enough for more options

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    1. Forgot Ben Herbert. Not just this year, but we look soft & mentally weak. Get bullied on both lines, and have too many with boo-boos

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  3. I'll say it again, if this isn't a totally new staff (which it probably won't be) then expect the mediocrity for another 1-2 yrs before we have this same conversation. There is NO better time to get rid of the entire system. $10-$11 million to buyout all these guys (which was reported). If you give Jim an extension and hire 5-6 new coaches to 2-3 yr contracts it is going to only make the next buyout (in 1-2 yrs) that much more expensive. Plus, they didn't re-start the culture.

    UM doesn't have a QB next year, let alone a defensive line. Next year is a total throw-away. I can't be sold on Milton, McNamara or McCarthy stepping into next season with any chance of making a difference. The first 2 just aren't that good. It will take McCarthy at LEAST a year. By then, UM will have won 6 games (maybe). From the current listed schedule they don't even have a game at the Big House in October! Currently, it's 5 straight games on the road! 6 out of 7 weeks actually. What do you think the pressure will be on JH then? He's going to be in the same situation he's in now! At least with a new coach there's a little less expectation and MAYBE an attitude change.

    Jim's lost the "Eye of the Tiger" and I don't see him training with Apollo Creed in Chicago anytime soon. He needs a new challenge (not Lions please) and it's not in this state. When will enough be enough for this fanbase? To me, the WORST thing to happen this season is that they cancelled the OSU and Iowa games. There is NO WAY he comes back to coach after 2 more blowouts. So, enjoy the next 365 days and I'll bet we'll be having this same conversation again next year.

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    1. The biggest problem I have with firing everyone - which I understand & would support - is that the coaching carousel is small this year. No really good picks, and most can be picked apart as quickly as Hoke was

      9 wins appears our CEILING in year7, but our floor is much, much lower

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    2. We might be having the same talk next year, because we're unlikely to beat Ohio State, and that's all most people care about. But I'm guessing Matt Campbell or Tony Elliott or whoever else might get the Michigan job also wouldn't beat OSU in 2021.

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    3. I think so too, but not just because of ohio

      We are returning an Offense that makes little sense, without a QB

      On D, the front7 got worse as the season went on, but even with Paye & Hutch, sparty's inept O still abused us. We simply do not get off blocks, and our tackling is abysmal

      9 wins seems optimistic, and sub-500 is a real possibility

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    4. Maybe Michigan would still lose to Ohio St with a new coach next year. But at least I would hope it would be a competitive game.
      I don't see the Iowa St coach leaving there. He is building something really good. I would stay and keep building there.

      joseph dreamed dreams

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    5. Thunder:

      Tony Elliot? Are you serious? It is a possibility?

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    6. Tony Elliott is the name that Sam Webb has been pushing.

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  4. Another excellent post. Am I on new meds or are you? Sorry I meant a new workout regime and fitness supplements obviously.

    This really could have been a series of posts and... You buried the lede with the full-throated Harbaugh endorsement. I couldn't agree more. The Campbell paragraph is the money shot.

    I will just add that if people want to fire Harbaugh right now they should make a list of their top 5 replacement candidates right now, post it for all to see, and then check back in 2 or 3 years and see how many have flopped elsewhere. It'll be most of them. Maybe do the same with your DC takes.

    Gattis assessment is spot on. Gattis needs a Phil Martelli type to help him along in developing a coherent gameplan IMO. Though there probably aren't a whole lot of 60-year old types who are well versed in modern offenses and ready for a sunset gig, you'd think they could find someone in an 'analyst' role that could work closely with Gattis and fill in this limitation. It was called out by Locksley and I think we saw evidence on the field. Great coaches and leaders know their limitations and get help.

    The one bit I disagree with is tying individuals to recruiting success so closely. I'm a stats guy but I think this stuff is just way too squishy to take seriously. I am not convinced that Moore or JayBaugh are really moving the needle and in-state recruiting this year was a disaster despite Edwards.

    I've come around to moving on from Brown. I think he'll do great wherever he ends up. I really hope it's not anywhere in the Big Ten.

    Agree the change is needed in QB coaching but with all our hopes tied to McCarthy you might have to consider the relationship with McDaniels there if that's a big deal. I wonder if Harbaugh needs to get more directly involved with the QBs, if he's lost his touch there, etc.

    -Lank

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    1. Lank, UM pays Gattis - going on his 3d year as OC - $1M per year. The time for a crutch is over

      Agree that Brown can do fine elsewhere, but stop short of great. He recruits like he's on the east coast, and belongs there. Mid-tier ACC, AAC school sounds right. Dr Blitz can bully teams into his retirement years

      *if our hopes are tied to a TrFr QB next year - with springball still limited to COVID - expect a .500 season. Need Cade to heal (and improve), a transfer and/or Milton to become somewhat serviceable

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    2. They pay Juwan even more - but he is right to have Martelli by his side. Gattis is young and inexperienced for an OC. Great coaches and leaders know their own weaknesses and get help.

      -Lank

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    3. I am highly confident they will be above 500 unless they fire Harbaugh.

      -Lank

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    4. Juwan is the HC ... He picks a staff to compliment his weaknesses

      Harbaugh should hire coaches that do the same. Instead, he hired a guy so unready that he requires his own staff? Too many options out there for that, especially at a place like michigan

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    5. Why not apply the same logic to a basketball coach with fewer players and assistants than an O/D coordinator? And you brought up the salary part...

      Harbaugh needs assistants who can recruit. That starts at the coordinator level because it's not necessarily his strength. It's a big reason why Brown is going to be gone and Gattis isn't. If it was just about Xs and Os it'd be the other way around.

      -Lank

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    6. If Juwan needed assistants for his assistants - as you suggest for Gattis - I'd be equally frustrated

      Harbaugh is an Offensive guy. If he brings in a prostyle guy, he can afford to mentor him along. But if he wants a revamped, modern Offense, he needs a guy who's done it and is 100% capable of doing so. Gattis is lost

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    7. I'm not entirely sure where the mindset comes from about Harbaugh only having the ability to mentor pro-style guys. Harbaugh wasn't exactly a pro-style guy in college, and despite running a pro-style offense at Stanford, he ran a ton of pistol and option stuff with the 49ers and then here at Michigan.

      I don't think Harbaugh gets enough credit for being flexible and adaptable. As far as showing different styles of offense, Harbaugh is literally the most multiple coach I have seen at Michigan, and that includes Schembechler, Moeller, Carr, Rodriguez, and Hoke.

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    8. I think the product on the field demonstrates Harbaugh's familiarity with whatever it is Gattis is trying to do. But I guess that's how it works out when you hire a first time Coordinator - over the phone

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    9. Milton transfer?
      I read last year that coaches told Milton and his family it would be better if he transfers out. That meeting was before the 2019 season. The story was confirmed by umbig11. I am still SMH over Josh Gattis moving him over McCaffrey and McNamara.
      If Tim Elliot really can be the HC here next season will will see a very different handling of QBs. It seems he would be a very good coach for McNamara and McCarthy. Both players have instant excitement written all over them.
      But, the idea of Tim Elliot being HC at Michigan sounds way too good to be true. Can you imagine the offensive fireworks of Tim Elliot and Ryan Day every year!

      joseph dreamed dreams

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    10. First time coordinator hired over the phone......

      That does spund like a flawed move. I dont like the LB coach hire too, or the QB coach, or the D Line coach.

      For hires this important it seems months of careful planning has to go into it. I would have a list of names of coaches at each position, that I would make updates and notes to, on a regular basis. Careers both of the pkayers and coaches at the school depend on having as solud a staff of coaches as you can put together. All head coaches have to deal with replacing assistants. Look at how much Nick Saban has had to do it. It looks loke replacing assistants is a significant part of a great head coaches job. Wrong moves will put you behind the 8 ball, as we see now with Michigan. Very costly. You can't have just great players. You have to have great coaches.

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  5. I don't trust a freshman either but when the bar is at McNamara's 6 ypa vs Rutgers level and Miltons 1:1 TD to INT ratio and the freshman is so highly regarded there's going to be competition.

    I'd love for all 3 to be there to compete but don't expect it.

    -Lank

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    1. Cade was in his first (nonRS) year getting live reps for only the second time. He didn't have 6ypa, he had 7.2 ... and 4(!) TDs, including the big one to CJ, which finally backed up their Safeties and helped our run game

      It's no wonder we went from 3&outs and Zero points, to 1st Dowms, 6 TDs, and a win. It was the first time in the Harbaugh era that our offense bailed out the defense ... He also led our only scoring drives against wisconsin and pennst, even tho Milton got starters reps with the same game plan

      Is he the answer? Eh, I see him as a watered down version of Shea. But there's no question he was the better option, and our best chance until McCarthy is ready

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    2. Great so you agree he probably isn't the answer. Some people just want to argue.

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    3. Stunning how Cade McNamara is being underrated. He would be a star and possible Heisman candidate at Oklahoma.
      I look forward to see how Dylan McCaffrey does next year too.
      SMH how QBs were handled this past year at Michigan. I am hoping a new OC and QB coach will be here next year.

      joseph dreamed dreams

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    4. I don't really agree that McNamara would be a Heisman candidate. The guys at Oklahoma have been better athletes - even Mayfield - and have had stronger arms. Spencer Rattler is a better player than McNamara, even though I hate Rattler.

      McNamara probably wouldn't get on the field at Oklahoma.

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    5. McNamara is a better passer than Jalen Hurts.

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  6. Coaching hires being founded on "he's a good recruiter" are not working out. Look at what the team is now using that approach. The team was going somewhere in the first two years Jim Harbaugh was here. But this change in criteria to who to hire as a coach is wrong. If hiring a coach that can recruit was working Michigan wouldn't have ended up 11th in recruiting--and still with no 300+ lbs impact D Linemen. Doesn't Alabama have a D Line with 2 players over 300? They did last year. I need to verify it again for this year. The only coaches I would keep are Jim Harbaugh, Ed Warinner, Zorich. I would keep Don Brown if he accepted a reduced role as a Co-DCoordinator. And I would drop the primary criteria of being a 'great recruiter' from my decision making for coaching hires. That criteria would be secondary to a coach that wins and gets players into the NFL. I dont see Alabama and Clemson having recruiting troubles. They win. They get many players into the NFL.

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    1. I looked it up. Alabama has just one d lineman over 300 this year. One DE weighs 295.

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    2. Alabama has six defensive linemen who are 300+ pounds. Whether they play a ton or not is a different story, but I just wanted to clarify.

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    3. 6. A team thats prepared!
      One is playing, at nose.

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    4. I meant the starters.
      I think Michigan has 2. Both arent starters. Did Mazi Smith play at all this year? Is he still on the team?

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