Wednesday, December 30, 2020

Anatomy of a Running Back Substitution, Part 3

 

Missouri football coaches meeting (image via Twitter)

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For previous posts in this series, click here (part 1) or here (part 2).

Having addressed the similarities between Tyrone Wheatley and Jay Harbaugh on distributing carries and then the reasons for rotating running backs, here's the final piece on how a coaching staff might handle the weekly rotation.

Hit the jump for more.


RECONNAISSANCE
Scouting a team starts weeks ahead of the actual game, with analysts and coaches reviewing film. Football programs also have their own analytics guys or pay outside companies to provide them with analytics. For run game purposes, they can tell the coaching staff which play concepts, personnel packages, play directions, etc. might be most successful against a certain team. For example, some teams might give up 8.5 yards/carry on outside zone, so Michigan might want to focus on outside zone that week. Which running back runs outside zone best? Or maybe a team allows just 20% of passes to be completed that are thrown 15+ yards down the field, so Michigan may want to focus on the short passing game and really shore up its pass protection for a rare deep shot. Which running back is the best pass protector? Some defenses run a ton of man coverage and are difficult to run screens against, so maybe the best screen guy gets put on the shelf for a week.

STAFF MEETINGS
Coaches meet constantly during the week. Of course, there are stories about some coaches spending the night at the office, just sleeping on a couch or a cot. But the game plan that develops is shared among the coaching staff. That week's focus on power or pin and pull or inside zone will be shared with everyone on the offensive staff. Furthermore, the offensive coordinator and other offensive coaches will collaborate on personnel packages, formations, motions, etc. A coordinator is in charge of coordinating his own ideas with those of his offensive staff. The coordinator might have an idea for a trick play, the running backs coach might have an idea for a two-back formation to stress the opponent's base defense, the tight end coach might have an idea for a motion or RPO, the offensive line coach might suggest a certain adjustment on inside zone blocking, and the quarterbacks coach might notice something with coverage or cornerback leverage. The running backs coach makes suggestions or recommendations about which of his running backs should play on certain plays or in certain schemes. Ultimately, again, it's the coordinator's job to take all of those ideas, pick and choose what can be accomplished during the week, and then mold them into a game plan.

THE GAME PLAN
Any football fan knows that offensive coordinators hold or look down at their play sheets during the game. I won't get into what might be on those play sheets, but those play sheets are usually set by the first day of practice for that week. So as an example, the play sheet for the Rutgers game would be shared with the entire staff by Monday. The rest of the coaches had input, but the coordinator (or head coach) has the final say about what ends up on the play sheet. From that point forward, it's the position coach's job to implement the coordinator's game plan. I don't know how Michigan works its offensive practices, but Monday might be an inside zone day, Tuesday might be power, Wednesday might be pin and pull, Thursday might be outside zone, and Friday is probably a walkthrough/review. There are various ways to work through this during the week (down and distance, personnel groupings, schemes, etc.). The coordinator and running backs coach (along with the rest of the staff) will meet daily to review how practice went, who's doing what well, who's struggling, who's dinged up, etc. As the week goes along, the play sheet might change a little bit based on which plays the QB is comfortable running, any injuries that might change a call, etc., but in general, the play sheet will largely remain the same from Monday.

GAME DAY
A lot of coaches say game day should be the easiest day of the week, and that goes for coaches, too (in my opinion). You're not coaching up all 8 of your running backs on game day, doing drill work, giving tips, etc. You're focused on the 3-4 guys who are getting on the field. Offensive coordinators typically think a couple plays ahead, so their first down call sets up their third down call. Or their first down call sets up their next first down call. As the offensive coordinator says the personnel package and play call into the head set, the running backs coach repeats the package aloud ("11" or "Ninja") or sends his running back onto the field by name ("Haskins, go for Corum"). Maybe Blake Corum is in the "Cheetah" package but got dinged up, so Chris Evans is next in for "Cheetah." The offensive coordinator isn't responsible for making substitutions because he has too much on his plate, but the running backs coach's job is to implement the game plan that was agreed upon throughout the week. If this week is a heavy inside zone week and Haskins is the best inside zone runner, then it would be Jay Harbaugh's job to insert Haskins for all inside zone packages. If it's 3rd-and-9, then it would be Jay Harbaugh's job to insert Zach Charbonnet since he's the best pass protector.

An opening game script determined by the offensive coordinator might go something like this:

1. 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE), inside zone: Haskins
2. 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE), inside zone play action: Haskins
3. 10 personnel (1 RB, 0 TE), sprint out pass: Charbonnet
4. 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE), power: Charbonnet
5. 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE), play action RB wheel: Haskins, Corum
Etc.

(If a coach scripts his opening plays, it will usually be 10-20 plays, but you get the point.)

TAKEAWAYS

This series ended up being a little longer than what I intended, and hopefully you stuck around for all three parts. So here's a summary of the series, which was developed partially in response to the gaggle of people wanting Jay Harbaugh fired because of the running back rotation and blaming him for Michigan's failures:

  • Jay Harbaugh, despite not having played the game at a high level, does not have a history of messing with the running back rotation any more than Tyrone Wheatley, who was an amateur superstar, 1st round draft pick, NFL veteran, and now a veteran coach at both the collegiate and NFL levels.
  • Running back substitutions are dependent on much more than "He's the fastest" or "He runs the best" or "He's the biggest." There are various things that go into game planning, including the skill sets and efficiency of certain running backs in certain schemes.
  • The game plan is developed in the weeks and days before the game based on film, analytics, etc. Running back rotations are determined not on the field on game day, but in meetings during the week where the running backs coach, the offensive coordinator, and (potentially) the head coach all have input into which players should play, how often they should rotate, and how multiple their offense will be.

43 comments:

  1. Fantastic job Thunder! Holiday donation is on its way!!!

    - at one point, we had one of the largest off field staffs in the nation. Is that still the case?
    - I can imagine the amount of information coming in as overwhelming
    - JH often looks lost; maybe it's too much? Paralysis by analysis? As a former player and lifelong football junkie, perhaps he is more the instinctive type?

    Hiring Jay wasn't the best look, but not exactly out of the ordinary. 6 years in, and he's nowhere near a top concern of mine. Thanks for putting this together, and GO BLUE

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  2. Watching wisconsin get bullied by Wake Forest is interesting. "IF" we lose ZC, he'd be smart to look toward Madison (unlikely). They have everything in place EXCEPT for running back, and could help get his draft stock to where it should be

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    1. Wisconsin did want Charbonnet.
      D Line is my top concern with the team. OC is the second. LB coach next. RB coach next.
      But then I want Michigan to be a National Championship contender.

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  3. Nice series. You summarized it very well in those last 3 bullets.

    Wish you and everyone here a great 2021! Hopefully for our football team too.

    -Lank

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  4. Good series and I have been impressed overall with Jay Harbaugh more than I thought. One suggestion for this series would be to have you compare the breakdown of carries/snaps as t other big schools. Are they feeding one primary guy and Michigan is the outlier? Or are they still giving a similar % to multiple backs?

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    1. I did consider that...and as much time as I have to write, I don't have time to get into that over any long stretch.

      It varies from year to year, but UNC had a pretty even split between its top 2 backs. Alabama in 2018 had three guys with 117-150 carries each, but this year they're feeding Najee Harris. It really just depends. Clemson was Travis Etienne-heavy, but we're talking about some of the best backs in the country with Clemson and Alabama.

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  5. I watched the Oklahoma / Florida game last night, and was impressed with the rushing of Oklahoma. Rhamondre Stevenson had 45% of the carries for OU, and Marcus Major had 22%. Stevenson looked really good, but I can't tell how much of that was him, and how much was Florida's defense.

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  6. Tre Serman showing RBs do matter

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    1. What is Tre Sermon showing us?
      What you are seeing in Tre Sermons success is Ohio Sts offensive line.

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    2. That's not how it worked with master teague carrying the ball

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    3. Sermon is averaging 7.55 yards/carry. Teague is averaging 5.04.

      Sermon has over 500 yards in the past two games, against Northwestern and Clemson. Are you suggesting that Teague would have done the same?

      Legitimate draft guys on Twitter like Dane Brugler are saying they are reconsidering their draft grades on Sermon. He's obviously a difference-maker for them. Teague is way too stiff.

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    4. Teague is good; comparable to Mike weber

      Sermon is great; not Dobbins elite, but he's a difference maker. He matters, bc RBs do matter

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  7. Is my only option to what I meant going to be what you say?
    Ohio St has a fantastic offensive line. And the entire team was likely playing with vengence over being called the 11th ranked team by Dabo Sweeny over and over. Talk about cork board material! There isn't enough play time yet to know how good Sermon really is. Maybe he's a difference maker, and maybe the entire Ohio St team was playing above their heads last night. Look how the defense held Trevor Lawrence in check, and even beat him down at times. The defensive line played inspired.
    It's dicey to judge how good Sermon is from such a small sample set. There's a far tougher game coming for Ohio St next week. Alabama has been a cut above all teams this season. I dont think Nick Saban will say anything as foolish as Dabo Sweeny persistently did.
    I have to be at work during the game. So I can't watch first hand how good Sermon will do, or Ohio Sts defensive line too. I could probably bet both wont look as great against Alabama. And Im sure Ohio St won't be beating up on Mac Jones.

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    1. After re-watching Sermon vs Clemson I haven't changed what I think of that night. Ohio St was playing with vengence because if Dabo Sweeny saying they were the 11th ranked team and didn't belong in the playoffs.

      Sermon went down on first contact on almost every play. He had big holes to go through on most plays.
      Wish I could watch Monday night to see how big the holes he will get against Alabama will be.

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    2. Hmmm... So all those stiff arms were against air? And the NW game, when he carried a plodding offense?

      While I agree CFB is a game of emotion, I think this is a stretch

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    3. 4 days until we see him play against Alabama. He won't be the same.
      Or will he?

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    4. You are saying that Dabo Sweeny saying Ohio St should be ranked 11th and didn't belong in the playoffs had no effect on how Ohio St played?

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    6. That's not what I said. In fact, I conceded the emotional charge on college sports

      But is that the sole reason? No, it's a stretch to say a game that was punch-for-punch for 3 of 4 Quarters, and a blowout in the 2Q, was soley do to ohio "playing with a vengeance"

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    7. Theres no way to prove it one way or another. But it was stupud of Dabo Sweeny to say it. I am certain it did insire Ohio St for 4 qtrs.
      And also, Sermon had great blocking in front of him. The excitement about him needs to be tempered with that. We will see if he has 6 foot wide holes against Alaama.

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    8. There is no way to prove it ... that's my point

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    9. Theres no way what Dabo Sweeny said did not affect how Ohio St played.

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    10. I've already agreed with this

      "Theres no way to prove it one way or another"

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    11. You talk like commenters at Mgoblog. Are you from there?

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    12. Nope, never. And I'm not sure what you mean, or what that has to do with RBs

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    13. Doubtful. Most commentators there finished High School.

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    14. Haha, spoken like a poster headed for another meltdown

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  8. I agree with Unknown. Sermon had 3 years to standout at Oklahoma and ended up being a backup. Transferred to OSU for playing time when Teague had a bad knee injury.

    He looks good at OSU, like the guy before him, and the guy after him will.

    Many other backs across the country would be successful in that role. Probably not more than 100 or so though...so I guess you can say RBs matter.

    -Lank

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  9. JE likes to tell us when RBs matter so I'm wondering if Derrick Henry tells us that RBs do indeed matter again today?

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    1. There's not a team out there that wouldn't want Henry. Why? Because RBs do matter

      GMs, Coaches, and players don't care about your spreadsheet

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    2. LOL. The guy ran for 2,000+ yards this year and his team went 11-5, has a bad game in the playoffs, and then silly questions like this get asked.

      Ben Roethlisberger had a bad game for the Steelers. Do quarterbacks matter?

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    3. That's exactly right Thunder. It is stupid to draw such conclusions based on a single game of production or lacktehreof.

      -Lank

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  10. 4th and short, forced to go outside with Master Teague... RBs do matter

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    1. The backup RBs on both teams averaged more YPC than the starters. RBDM!

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    2. Najee was a big a threat catching the ball as running ... the backup was not

      Watch & learn the game - you'll get much more out of it than glancing at a stat sheet

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    3. Yeah that's in the boxscore. Which is something you can look at in addition to watching the game to add some objective perspective. But some people just want to talk about their feelings.

      I've been arguing on this site for a decade about how RB value needs to consider receiving skills (in the boxscore) and blocking (not in the boxscore) beyond YPC. So, I agree with that. I also think Harris is one of the 5 best backs we've seen in the last decade.

      You know who doesn't contribute as a receiver and never has? - Derrick Henry. You don't need stats to pick cherries.

      RBDM

      -Lank

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    4. What? Just listen to yourself: if you want to throw to the RB, Derek Henry isn't your guy. Why? Skillet & playcall matters - the RB matters

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  11. If you want to throw a 15 yard out route, Denard Robinson isn't your guy. No problem, right JE?

    The best evidence I have that Derrick Henry matters is that Nick Saban changed the ball distribution while he was there and that his YPC maintained despite a lot of turnover on the Titans OL.

    Did he matter to team outcomes? IDK, even with one of the most productive and physically impressive retro rushers around. Alabama seemed very good before and after Derrick Henry (contrast with say Saquan Barkley or Delvin Cook). The Titans have been good but not great with him.

    How much can you matter if you are easy to replace? How much can you matter if your team isn't great?

    Henry reminds me of Leveon Bell - paid for a lot of rush yards but the team who lost him wasn't affected and the teams that got him next he was JAG.

    -Lank

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