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Name: T.J. Guy
Height: 6’4″
Weight: 246 lbs.
High school: Mansfield (MA) Mansfield
Position: Defensive end
Class: Redshirt sophomore
Jersey number: #42
Last year: I ranked Guy #50 and said he would be a backup defensive end (LINK). He made 4 tackles.
TTB Rating: 65
Guy seems to be steadily progressing in his career. After playing in two games as a freshman, he played in ten total contests last fall, including six on defense. He came into college with some questions about where he should play - end or tackle - but he's been hovering in the 240s for his entire career so far.
The outlook for 2023 is perhaps a little brighter than it was in 2022. Mike Morris, Taylor Upshaw, and Eyabi Okie have all moved on from his position group. Josaiah Stewart, Jaylen Harrell, Braiden McGregor, and Derrick Moore are probably going to make up the top four edges, so Guy will be battling Kechaun Bennett, Tyler McLaurin, and freshman to get the other snaps available. While Bennett flashed a little bit in the spring, Guy has been more trusted by the coaches when it comes to live games over the past couple years, so I'm giving Guy the nod in the race for playing time.
Prediction: Backup defensive end
I'm very surprised to see guy this low. I'd consider him to be one of the more important backup options on the roster and a rotational player who is a heavy favorite to see double digits snaps against psu, osu, etc.
ReplyDeleteMichigan used 6 edge players last year against tcu and OSU . 3 of them gone. Stewart gets one spot and the othes are open for guy, who has gotten consistent praise and enters his Junior year where many edges break out.
Id have him in the 40s I think. Given the importance of edges, maybe higher.
He was 33rd on the team last year in tackles. Throw in the rough equivalent of important players on offense, mix in some special teams guys, and I think #60 is fair.
DeleteTo put it a different way, there are 44 guys in the two-deep. Add in your specialists (K, P, LS), some key coverage/protection, and some offensive package guys (the #3 tight end isn't exactly a third-stringer on this roster) guys to get to about 50, and Guy is within the first 10 players who's a 3rd-stringer or lower.
I think you have to consider that the use of 3rd stringers is dramatically different by position. The 3rd string OC, QB, ILB, and Safety are not going to play meaningful snaps against OSU or TCU. The 3rd Edges are.
DeleteAt those other positions, the starters play nearly every meaningful down, the backup gets the scraps or maybe a situational role, and the 3rd guy behind the backup is just there in case there is an injury or mop-up/developmental opportunities (glorified practice). They are almost total non-factors when it comes to the season outcomes.
In contrast, the 3rd string EDGE is part of the regular week-in-week-out rotation - like a starter but less utilized. Against OSU in 2021 Michigan used 9 guys on the DL, last year it was 10. Against TCU it was 12.
I knoq you agree with this logic because you'll put the 3rd string RB, and 4th string, and 5th string, much higher than this on the countdown. Not only are they not on the 2-deep, but (unlike the 5th and 6th EDGE) they likely won't be out there vs OSU.
As I said, Guy is going to very likely be playing meaningful defensive snaps against OSU. I think that makes him important. Of the guys listed so far and probably the majority of the next 10-15, that's not going to be true. In my eyes a better ranking for him would be closer to where you put guys like Upshaw (#36) and Welshof (#33) since they (along with Okie and Morris) are gone and there's only 1 guy coming in to replace those 4. We all think we can trust Harrell/McGregor/Moore/Stewart because they are proven players, and I agree. But I guarantee you that Michigan will need more players at the position. Guy is at the top of the list.
*I would bet a freshman WR plays snaps against OSU as well, I just don't feel highly confident which one it will be.
DeleteSpecial teams has it's place on the countdown, but most of those guys are highly interchangeable. That's different than the guy who plays a critical role in trying to be in Kyle McCord's face in the 3rd and 4th Q of the OSU game.
The question really isn't about whether Guy is going to play. He is. The question is about how valuable he is as an individual. You mentioned that some special teams players are interchangeable. How valuable is Guy when compared to Enow Etta, Aymeric Koumba, Kechaun Bennett, Tyler McLaurin, and others? I haven't seen anything from Guy to make me think he's the next man up. He's not going to bull rush anyone at 246 pounds, and he's not really known for being explosively fast.
DeleteThere's a very real chance that Etta is better than him in year one.
This isn't about the edge positions. This is about Guy himself. He was the #936 overall recruit in 2021 and he has 6 career tackles. Nothing says to me that he's a difference-maker above the likes of the above-mentioned guys.
I agree with you that the value is the key thing, specifically the differential in value from one guy to the next. My guess, and I fully admit it is only guess because Guy isn't a guy who has done anything notable yet, is that Guy will be quite valuable and a substantially superior option to most, even if not all, freshman.
DeleteThe difference should be 2 years worth of physical and skill development. We've seen what this can do for guys like Ojabo, Hutchinson, Morris, Uche, McGregor -- to name just a few -- who have made SUBSTANTIAL leaps as juniors. That's the more typical path to a guy coming in as a freshman and being a difference maker. That's why Moore is so exciting - he's uncommonly good at a young age. His debut was more like Rashan Gary's than most mortals.
I think we've seen enough from Guy to believe he is next man up. So, while my guess is still a guess, it's an educated one - informed by what he did last year. He already (with the 4 guys on the roster) next man up, so to speak. It was just that that meant that "next man up" in that case was a guy who was 4th string and played limited snaps in low leverage situations. But he did a lot of that. He was also in on special teams. He as also garnered praise from coaches consistently (in addition to the playing time). Though he might never get there, he is right on track with many others who ended up being starters.
Guy could be a bust too - but there's really not any evidence of that. He's already done more before his junior year than say, Taylor Upshaw who emerged as a low ceiling starter and contributor in HIS junior year. Or Donovan Jeter who eventually turned into a key contributor.
So yes, there IS a very real chance that Etta is better. But that chance is smaller than 50/50. And then, even if Etta IS better, Michigan STILL needs another EDGE to play and ideally be impactful. So can Bennett or McLaurin or Koumba ALSO be better? Maybe! But Guy is definitely ahead of the guys who were on the team last year and historically speaking highly likely to be superior to most freshman.
So now the odds soar WAY past 50/50 that Guy is going to play and that when he plays he is some margin better than the guy who doesn't. How much we don't know but most freshman are...not good and we've seen even less from Bennett and McLaurin than Guy also.
So where I'll disagree with you is this - it IS about the position as well as about the guy (Guy). The coaches played him last year in a small role with a lot of depth and now that there's isn't much of one he's poised for a much bigger one. History indicates that he is NEXT MAN UP. Anyone can get passed by a stud true freshman, but the vast majority of guys who are on the positive track of growth and development do not.
One more note, because I think it's biasing you in the wrong direction - Guy's recruiting profile is irrelevant now. He's a junior and we know some things about him. The same argument you're making against him are ones you could have used against Ojabo, Morris, Uche, Winovich etc. You ranked those guys higher (or at least some of them.)
So, I'll note here your skepticism specific to Guy as a guy, and your assumption that he is unlikely to be substantially better than replacement-level freshman. I think he'll be better than you think immediately in 2023. I think you're again reading too much into recruiting rankings for vets. I think you're not reading the fringe playing time tea leaves the same way I am.
We'll see what happens but I would not be shocked if we see Guy starting this year (although if he does it'll be due to injury, it's almost likely that across the 4 guys ahead of him that someone will get dinged at some point).
those guys were also massive and/or extremely athletic - hence most were highly sought after by the staff. guy appears to be just another guy, pun intended. well see if that changes.
Deletewere not talking about a 270 lbs load or 240 lbs uche like bender. if his snap count jumps its likely due to smart play and staff trusting him to execute his assignments within the scheme while the more athletic guys earn that trust. maybe thats enough to warrant higher rank - or maybe hes ranked appropriately and others have just as good of shot at earning those depth reps.
@ Lank 4:46 p.m.
DeleteIf Guy is a starter in 2023 at any point, it's because three guys got hurt/suspended. I would say that would be pretty shocking. Evan Boutorwick could also be a starter at long snapper, even though there are two guys ahead of him. C.J. Stokes could be a starter even though he's, at best, the third-string running back. I think you've said that you don't see Stokes as much of a player going forward.
Just because a guy is starting doesn't mean he's good, and it doesn't necessarily mean he should be ranked highly. There's a lot of context to be considered.
@Thunder
DeleteI would expect 4 or 5 edges to start games at EDGE this year because that's the norm. By my estimation Guy is guy #5.
I think you are not fully considering the degree of rotation along the DL. What you are saying make sense for a depth chart written out on paper but that's not how it works. In part because we are "multiple" and in part because injuries are expected, we tend to have a lot of guys start at EDGE over a season. Nominal backups like McGregor started 3 games and Okie started 2. Upshaw and Welshof started games in the past too. We don't just have to replace Mike Morris.
More generally, think back to Harbaugh on the podcast last summer listing out 30 some "starters". That proves out to be true over a season.
So, I think it could be as few as one guy getting hurt to bump Guy into the starting lineup. If Moore/McGregor are locked into a rotation on one side that the staff is happy with and Harrell is hurt for a game, I could see Guy stepping in for him to start. Stewart might be more of a situational pass rusher and in that case Michigan might use Guy as the starter to not rock the boat. Depends on the defense they want to put out there to start a game against a specific opponent.
I'm not saying it's likely but it wouldn't be remotely surprising, even though Harrell has been exceptionally durable and Michigan can certainly have the option of playing Moore and McGregor at the same time (they've already done that). I think the EDGEs are SOMEWHAT interchangeable but not completely.
One way or another you can expect backup Edges to start games.
In 2022, here's the breakdown of starters for the edge positions: Harrell (12), Morris (11), McGregor (3), Okie (2). Yes, backup edges will start games. That doesn't necessarily mean the fifth "edge" will start a game. It's entirely possible also that if it got down to the point where Guy was going to start, they would play more with a different package to get their best 11 on the field, which maybe includes someone like Jenkins playing DE and Benny/Graham on the inside.
Delete4 guys start games. Same thing in 2021 when Ojabo, Hutchinson, Morris, and Harrell all started games.
DeleteSo we could be 1 injury away from the 5th guy stepping into the top 4, and thus starting a game or two, or more. All I said is I would not be shocked. You said it would take 3 injuries or more and I disagree with that.
I agree that Michigan could change the defense to shift personnel around - but they might not. The fact that guys like Welshof and Upshaw start games tells me they are more likely to slot in a replacement than change the defensive strategy.
Anyway, the whole issue of starting is beside the main point. The actual distinction of guys starting games or not is really secondary. The key issue here is that meaningful downs are allocated across the top 5 or 6 available guys in every game. Regardless of injury you need 5 or 6 guys to deliver results on meaningful downs.
We see this in who plays meaningful downs and we see this in Michigan recruiting an entire cruise-ships worth of EDGE prospects in this year's recruiting class. The edge rotation is how you end up with an unexceptional guy like Taylor Upshaw (who we have no obvious replacement for) getting an INT to close the door on OSU's come-back attempt in the 4th quarter.
We can say anybody can do that job and maybe it's true but Upshaw, unexceptional as he might be, started games at Michigan and transferred to a power 5 school for a bigger role.
Those snaps matter a lot, IMO. Michigan doesn't seem to view giving critical high leverage snaps to the 5th Edge as optional. The 3rd RB and 3rd ILB are.
Adding and playing Okie as much as they did is also telling. This was a high risk player brought in off the portal late in the summer. Michigan needed bodies at EDGE and they used almost all of the ones they had.
DeleteSo that emphasizes the value of the position. The issue for Guy is that he wasn't one of them last year. I'm giving him a pass for that because he was a sophomore and the list of guys who pop as juniors is long. Like Ojabo or Wormley he's a guy who was supposed to take time to develop and he seems on the right timeline to me. We'll see.
I'd place him higher, but he's one of many who will either step up or get lost in the wash
ReplyDeleteRight. There's a chance that Enow Etta gets more playing time than Guy in 2023, kind of like Derrick Moore did in 2022. I think Koumba is a project who will take a couple years, though.
DeleteYeah I agree with this. There is some uncertainty around Guy. IMO that drops him from 30s to 40s.
DeleteBut -- we might be overstating it here. Guy has consistently drawn praise from the coaches. He was reported to be raw as an incoming recruit yet he played as a freshman and had a sack. Last year he played in 10 games. He has added weight.
I'm not saying that he's Chase Winovich 2.0 but I am saying that we lost 4 guys who played and replaced them with 1 and TJ Guy is the next man up on the list and right at the age where you'd expect a big step up.
Even if we have another Derrick Moore (not necessarily likely) we still need a couple guys to step up at EDGE, so Guy seems very highly likely to be one of them.
I remember that sequence vs. Maryland in 2021 in garbage time where Guy had a sack, a near-sack for 0 yards and another pressure on Taulia Tagovailoa, all on high-effort plays. That had me enthused about Guy in 2022, and if he has any coverage ability, he might be able to give Harrell a breather.
ReplyDelete—Joby
Yeah I agree. Garbage time highlights have to be taken with a grain of salt but Guy has done more than most through 2 seasons to deserve optimism and get over his modest recruiting profile. He is on a positive trajectory.
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