RUSH OFFENSE vs. PENN STATE RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #52 in rushing offense (167.1 yards/game) after struggling on the ground a little bit against Purdue. They're #47 in yards per carry (4.57 yards/carry) but #5 in rushing touchdowns (25). Blake Corum (126 carries, 649 yards) leads the country in rushing touchdowns with 16. Donovan Edwards has the lowest rushing average in the conference, though, at 3.14, so it will be interesting to see how much run Kalel Mullings (27 carries, 167 yards, 1 TD) gets. Edwards had an explosive game against the Nittany Lions in 2022, but he hasn't been playing up to the same level so far this season. Penn State has the #2 rush defense (60.6 yards allowed/game) and their 2.0 yards allowed per carry ranks #2 also. Junior LB Curtis Jacobs (6'1", 235 lbs.) leads the team with 36 tackles, followed closely by sophomore LB Abdul Carter (6'3", 249) with 34, junior S Jaylen Reed (6'0", 205) with 32, and junior LB Kobe King (6'1", 242) with 30. Reed and King are both Detroit products, from MLK and Cass Tech, respectively. Up front is fifth year senior Hakeem Beamon (6'3", 290) and sophomore Zane Durant (6'1", 285), both of whom are solid tackles. Overall, the team's worst performance was week one against WVU when they gave up 146 yards and 2 touchdowns to the Mountaineers. Last week they held Maryland to -49 yards on the ground (including sacks).
Advantage: Penn State
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. PENN STATE PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #45 in pass offense (257.1 yards/game) but #2 in pass efficiency behind LSU. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy is completing over 75% of his passes for 18 touchdowns and 3 interceptions; last week was an "off" week when he completed 65% of his throws for 335 yards. Overall, he's been extremely good - all three interceptions came in one abnormal game - and is in the discussion for the Heisman. The #1 target is Roman Wilson (36 catches, 589 yards, 10 TD), but fellow senior Cornelius Johnson (24 catches, 422 yards, 1 TD) and sophomore TE Colston Loveland (27 catches, 419 yards, 4 TD) have both been a big part of the passing game. Edwards (24 catches, 225 yards) had a 37-yard catch on a fade route last week, but he has yet to get in the end zone in the passing game. Michigan is #18 in sacks allowed per game (1.22). Penn State is #2 in sacks per game (4.11), led by senior DE Adisa Issac (6'4", 249) with 6.5. Junior DE Chop Robinson (6'3", 254) is a Maryland transfer who has 3 sacks this year, but he has missed the past two games against Indiana and Maryland and could return to the lineup on Saturday. Senior CB Johnny Dixon (6'0", 196) is used as a blitzer by defensive coordinator Manny Diaz and has 1 sack in each of the past three weeks. Senior nickel Daequan Hardy (5'9", 178) leads the squad with 2 interceptions, along with backup LB Dominic Deluca, a 6'1", 218 lb. sophomore. Junior Kalen King (5'11", 190), twin brother of the aforementioned Kobe King, is PSU's top corner.
Advantage: Penn State
RUSH DEFENSE vs. PENN STATE RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #10 in rush defense (90.1 yards allowed/game) and #13 in yards per carry defense (3.04). No team has rushed for more than 125 yards, which they gave up to Purdue last week. Inside linebacker Junior Colson leads the team with 49 tackles, followed by LB Michael Barrett (33) and LB Ernest Hausmann (30). Defensive end Braiden McGregor (5.5 tackles for loss) and DT Mason Graham (5.0) have both been very good run stoppers. Penn State is #43 nationally in rushing offense (173.2 yards/game) and #79 in yards per carry (4.17). They have been hurt on the ground by the graduation of QB Sean Clifford, because new QB Drew Allar (6'5", 242) is not much of a runner (53 carries, 100 yards, 3 TD). He can take off on a draw or a scramble and run for a few yards, but Clifford could take it 60 yards and Allar doesn't have that capability. Backup QB Beau Pribula (6'2", 203) is more of a runner with 44 carries for 240 yards and 5 TDs. Prior to the season, there was a lot of arguing about the best RB duo in the country coming down to Michigan vs. Penn State, but so far PSU's Nick Singleton (6'0", 222) has 121 attempts for 480 yards and 7 TDs and Kaytron Allen (5'11", 222) has 119 carries for 573 yards and 4 TDs.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. PENN STATE PASS OFFENSE
Michigan has the #1 pass defense in the land (141.3 yards allowed/game) with the #2 passing efficiency defense and the #8 defense in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.7). That's even more impressive considering Michigan doesn't have an elite pass rusher and they're relying on a UMass transfer at one cornerback spot. They're #44 in sacks per game (2.44), led by OLB Josaiah Stewart (4.5 on the season) and OLB Jaylen Harrell (3.5). Early season health issues for CB Will Johnson and S Rod Moore seem to have cleared up somewhat. Penn State is starting a new QB this year in Allar, who has completed 62.8% of his throws for 20 TD and 1 INT. They're #77 in passing offense (220.8 yards/game) and #101 in yards per attempt (6.5). On the plus side for PSU, Allar's 1 interception is the lowest total in the country for any team. Junior wideout KeAndre Lambert-Smith (6'1", 185) is the prime target with 51 catches for 645 yards and 4 touchdowns. The next two most common targets are TE Theo Johnson (6'6", 260) with 24 catches for 246 yards and 4 touchdowns and TE Tyler Warren (6'6", 257) with 23 receptions for 216 yards and 6 scores. Penn State allows 1.33 sacks per game, which is tied for #25 nationally.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Penn State players recruited by Michigan include: QB Drew Allar, OL Alex Birchmeier, WR Cristian Driver, DT Dvon Ellies, OL Olu Fashanu, S Mehki Flowers, RB Devyn Ford, CB Daequan Hardy, DE Adisa Isaac, TE Theo Johnson, CB Kalen King, LB Kobe King, RB London Montgomery, DE Joseph Mupoyi, TE Andrew Rappleyea, LB Ta'Mere Robinson, WR Kaden Saunders, OL Landon Tengwall, OL J'ven Williams
- Penn State players from the State of Michigan include: CB Kalen King (Cass Tech), LB Kobe King (Cass Tech), S Jaylen Reed (Detroit King)
- Penn State TE Andrew Rappleyea was committed to Michigan at one time
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED...
- On October 15, 2022, Michigan beat Penn State by a score of 41-17
- RB Donovan Edwards ran 16 times for 173 yards and 2 TDs, including a 67-yarder
- RB Blake Corum ran 28 times for 166 yards and 2 TDs, including a 61-yarder
- Penn State QB Sean Clifford completed 7/19 passes for 120 yards and was replaced by Drew Allar, who completed 5/10 throws for 37 yards
- Altogether, Michigan ran for 418 yards, which was 234 more yards than the next highest total against PSU, which was Utah with 184 yards
PREDICTION
- Michigan 30, Penn State 17
I think UM has an advantage across the board. PSU is going to shut down our run attack? Not likely. >5YPC, but I am not sure if we don't pass for 250 yards and go for 200 on the ground. OC will go with what they give us: Load the box, bombs away. Play cover two and we run it down their throats.
ReplyDeleteKeys to the game-
OT holding up against the DE
keeping JJ clean.
Forget running Edwards, put in motion and Iso a LB.
Corum RB1, Mullins RB2, Hall RB3.
Can the WR's beat the CB's? doesn't matter, TE 1 and 2 will be open all day.
Defense, I can't see PSU moving the ball at all. It will take a short field off a TO or a busted play. PSU got two last year, didn't matter.
I give UM a 90% chance to win.
38-6 for a final, only way PSU wins is 5 TO's plus broken plays.
Worry if:
Our OT are getting worked and JJ is running for his life.
Our DE are not pressuring Allar.
PSU is running consistently putting PSU in 3rd and short.
Our WR/TE can't get open.
Still win IMO.
Everyone of my worries-Came True
DeleteJJ running for his life.
DE getting tackled no call
ALLAR getting a good pocket
PSU getting good first down production...
Didn't matter.
40 straight runs..eat that.
Fun read on Harball:
Deletehttps://sports.yahoo.com/amid-jim-harbaughs-suspension-and-scandal-michigan-delivers-angry-win-at-penn-state-232828339.html
F the B1G
ReplyDeleteUM 2o - pedophile state 1o
People seem to be most interested on the strength vs strength battle of our pass O vs PSU's pass D. We are itching to see if our very good run game has that extra gear to be excellent, as it was last year. But what's most interesting to me is if our defense is as good as it's looked against lackluster competition. Allar has avoided turnovers and has good numbers in a certain way, but doesn't run and hasn't impressed anybody watching.
ReplyDeleteI know only this. I want this one bad.
Go Blue!
Instant reaction:
ReplyDelete5 Guards on OL hurt our passing
No matter, Harball is who we are, and it was a sight to see!
D played well. Garbage time TD bothered me as little as then relying on Drew Allar's athleticism on the first TD. When the happened, I felt confident PennSt had nothing else
Props to the staff & players for keeping the main thing The Main Thing
Props to Coach Moore, wining in a hostile environment against a top10 team
*after a boring first nine games, THIS was exhilarating!
#1 team in the nation
GO BLUE 〽️
Finally a game against a good opponent. Area of concern:
ReplyDeleteLooks like the weakness of the offense is our Tackle. This is the second consecutive game where the opponent DE has beaten our Tackles.
Look for Maryland and Ohio to continue to throw blitzes at our OL and makes JJ uncomfortable in the pocket.
What happened to Mason Graham? From the game, it seems that Goode and Grant played more snaps than Graham. Was he injured?
Their DEs were killing our OTs but I'm not all the way ready to call it a full blown weakness. Chop Robinson is a top 10 pick and their edge group is loaded and deep. This is why elite EDGEs are so important. That matchup changed the game - just like Hutch and Ojabo changed the game against OSU. Henderson/Barnhart are not bad players, they just aren't top of round 1 players - we aren't going to face pass rushers like that again all year unless we play Alabama. OSU's edges are very good but not the same sort of speed rush terrors.
DeleteMore concerning was that OUR edge pressure was almost non-existent. We had to blitz A LOT to get pressure on Allar. I haven't rewatched the game in detail but the only times I noticed anybody really getting through was Derrick Moore. There was a lot of quick passing TBF.
My big take away from this game -- they are who we thought they were. A lot of noise introduced in 9 games of cupcakes but yesterday's game was pretty much exactly what you expected in August. Will Johnson locking down the top WR threat, the DTs making plays, and Corum/Edwards working as a dynamic duo while we lined up and said Try To Stop It. They could not.
Hell of a win! Probably a top 5 non-OSU moment of the Harbaugh era. And that photo of Bloody-Faced Blake....iconic! Those Michigan photogs better watch out or Ben Hebert is coming for their job.
Heard some complaining about running too much midway through the 2nd half. I was having none of it. Rundabaw was absolutely the right call(s). Credit to Sherrone Moore for seeing it and diagnosing it.
DeleteDiaz was blessed with elite secondary talent and elite pass rushers. We probably could have passed more if we wanted to - but why get JJ beat up in the pocket and on scrambles. Diaz does not build defenses to stop MEAT MEAT MEAT run games. It was strength on weakness, hidden in a battle between a top 5 defense vs a top 5 offense.
Donovan and Blake looked just like they looked last year. I told you all not to fret. Michigan was back to running on 1st down and 3rd down and "and long" and the explosives returned.
Sherrone Moore is getting some credit but still not enough. The turnaround in this program from very good to elite happened with his promotion to OL. Warriner, Zordich, McDonald, Weiss are all very good football coaches but I think the culture change is in large part due to guys like Moore, Jay Harbaugh, Clinksdale, Bellomy, etc. embracing not just X's and Os but authentic people leadership.
The culture of this team is off the charts. With the Big Ten doing what it's doing - that seems to be a gift right now. Because the team is just feeding off it. The last thing Ryan Day wants to see is this team mad.
Agree about the culture: it's like nothing I've seen in my 50+ years of watching the game. It's an 'X' factor other programs can't touch, which makes me wonder if the B1G and other teams are lashing out at Michigan because of it.
Delete