MICHIGAN RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan ranks #61 in rushing offense (161.8 yards/game), #71 in yards per carry (4.27), and #4 in rushing touchdowns. The Wolverines went from a heavy rush offense the past two years to more of a balanced attack this season. So despite having a talented and very experienced offensive line, the rushing numbers have dropped off some. Blake Corum topped 1,000 yards this season, but he needed the Big Ten Championship Game against Iowa to get there (218 carries, 1028 yards, 24 TD). Star running back Donovan Edwards is somehow the second least efficient running back in the Big Ten (3.5 yards/carry). The offensive line had to reshuffle during the Ohio State game after losing All-American right guard Zak Zinter to a broken leg. The good news is that he was replaced at guard by Karsen Barnhart, who seems to perform better at guard than tackle. The bad news is that new right tackle Trente Jones used to be Michigan's sixth lineman in the jumbo package, so now perhaps that package is gone. Possibly, though, the coaching staff could spend the bowl practices incorporating someone else - such as backup Myles Hinton - as the jumbo tight end.
ALABAMA RUSH DEFENSE
Alabama is #31 in rush defense (124.5 yards allowed/game) and #33 in yards allowed per carry (3.7). They have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns this season, which is tied for #39 in the country. Although the team has improved overall throughout the season, the rushing defense has arguably got worse. Ten out of those 14 rushing touchdowns allowed have come in the last five games, while LSU and Auburn have run for 8.6 and 5.8 yards per carry, respectively. LSU has Heisman-winning dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels, but Auburn has . . . nobody noteworthy. The leading tackler for the Crimson Tide is true freshman strong safety Caleb Downs (6'0", 203 lbs.), who has an amazing 99 stops. He's followed by sophomore LB Jihaad Campbell (6'3", 230), who has 65 tackles but is listed as a backup; redshirt sophomore CB Terrion Arnold (6'0", 196) with 61; redshirt sophomore LB Deontae Lawson (6'2", 230) with 61; and fifth year senior DE Justin Egboigbe (6'5", 292) with 60. Egboigbe and OLB Dallas Turner (6'4", 252) are the guys to watch to be making plays in the backfield. While the interior defensive line play has not been outstanding, the Tide have a couple huge starting tackles in redshirt sophomore Tim Kennan III (6'2", 315) at nose tackle and sophomore DT Jaheim Oatis (6'5", 320).
Advantage: Alabama. The overall numbers and recent history favor the opponent. Michigan has been overwhelmed at the line of scrimmage in recent years against SEC opponents like Alabama and Georgia. I don't see that getting much better now that Michigan will be without its best offensive lineman. Michigan has not had explosive plays in the run game this season, so unless J.J. McCarthy can become a bigger factor and channel his inner Jayden Daniels, I expect Michigan to struggle a little. I do think they'll find some success - it won't be a total bloodbath in the trenches - but Michigan will have to be creative and balanced.
The run game has fallen off from elite to, statistically speaking, mediocre. This remains perplexing. During conference play I was hanging my hat on the rushing success rate remaining strong, but with the late season increase in competition level, even that dipped down to 58th nationally. EPA/play is 70th right alongside Yards per play ranking that Thunder referenced.
ReplyDeleteThe stats say calling the running game "average" is wearing maize colored glasses. Whether you think it's Weiss, scoutgate, OL personnel, OL instability, TE/WR blocking, RBs, or situational playcalling, it's clear the rushing game is not at the level it was the last 2 seasons. Maybe we can say our stubborness is contributing to some inefficiency - but that's still a drop-off to recent past when we were even more stubborn.
The state of the run game is pretty troubling for a matchup against an Alabama defense with a loaded secondary of high NFL draft picks and very good edge pass rushers. "Michigan will have to be creative and balanced." Indeed! They are also going to need to execute and that can be tough when you are shuffling guys around the OL, haven't played in a month, and are way off in LA. Michigan's bowl game history is uninspiring to say the least.
More optimistically, stats don't tell the whole story and I believe we are better than we look on paper. Hinton has been used as a bonus OL before, so not hard to imagine him fitting into that role. Zinter is a monster and will be missed but Jones and Barnhart are very capable and experienced vets. The OL should remain a strength, even against Bama. Also notable that when we played three years ago, against a similarly ranked Alabama defense, our backs ran 31 times for 145 yards, with a long of just 12. We moved the ball but Patterson was mediocre and early FGs (instead of TDs) and late sacks and INTs doomed Michigan to a (closer than people remember) loss in 2021.
More recently Auburn ran all over Alabama (244 yards) and while Georgia's run game was held in check they were far from dominated (80 yards on 23 carries by RBs with a long of 17)
Bottomline - There's reason to think we can move the ball on the ground on 1/1/24
Blake Corum's production is as telling as anything of the shift in the run game. His YPC has fallen from 6.6 to 5.9 to 4.7 over the last 3 seasons. Can he get the big gainers going again in his last game(s) in college? Or rather - can the OL can get him the holes? I'm not counting on it. Corum will draw the headlines but I don't think he's a big factor in this game.
DeleteTwo big X factors to me:
1 is if the season long lack of big plays from Donovan Edwards is something the staff can resolve. Two contradictory feelings exist simultaneously -- DE is due! and Our staff isn't using him right! His long run on the season is 22 yards and only has 2 passes longer than that (each for 30 something yards). Given how good Alabama's secondary is I don't expect a breakout day... it sure would be nice though!
2 - Big runs from the QBs. Whether it's Orji or McCarthy or even Tuttle - QB running the ball have been big factors in near defeats of Bama multiple times. Thunder mentioned McDaniels (160+ yards) but Auburn used Peyton Thorne heavily as he led the team in carries and engineered multiple scoring drives to nearly roll the tide. Joe Milton also led his team in carries and Tenn had a lead at half before getting totally overwhelmed in the 2nd. KJ Jefferson also tied for his team lead in carries in Arkansas narrow loss.
Michigan is not going to be able to beat Alabama with 4 yards and a cloud of dust approach - they are going to have to be balanced and creative and to me that means putting the speed of our QBs and Lightning Back heavily into play in the run game.
Maybe Hinton is ready to take over the tackle position? He was a 5 star recruit and is a prototype tackle. He needed some coaching this year, and the year is over so maybe he is ready. I like Jones, that guy paves people, but the coaches don't like him. He in at tackle because of the injury, and getting Barnhart OUT of the RT slot is a plus, even if it costs our AA RG Zinter. We are lucking JJ didn't get killed with him in at RT.
DeleteI'd like to see us use all 6 against Bama. Put HInton outside of Henderson on the left side and run that way, with Jones or Barnhart pulling around.
DeleteMichigan would have beaten TCU last year if JJ had run more. Once he started running in the 2nd, Michigan's offense went on a roll. If he would have run on the last drive, Michigan might have fared better. This is the time to turn him loose.
ReplyDeletePerhaps but you can say any number of things could have been different when you turn the ball over twice on the doorstep of the endzone in the first half, throw 2 pick sixes on top of that, yet still put up 45 points on offense.
DeleteThose 4 swing plays cost us the game, but I'll always put it on the defense for giving up 35 points. Three drives of 75+ yards in the second half is not a recipe for winning games regardless of offensive mistakes or inefficiency.
TCU was a tomato can gift. UM should have won that game by 28 points, well, maybe not that game, but a game where it looked like the coaches actually spent 4 weeks prepping vs trying to get NFL jobs.
DeleteUM set 35 points on fire, and you are not beating anyone doing that, even a tomato can like TCU.
Not only did they not run JJ, they ran duo right into what TCU was determined to take away.
OL looked like they were high. Could not pick up stunts to save their lives.
Colson was lost most of the game, never executed his assignment, was always out of position, allowed huge chunks of yards.
Minter went cover zero and Turner did what Turner always does: Missed his tackle.
It was a complete shit show and then we learn Harbaugh was taking the Minnesota job. He even cleaned out his office, said his goodbyes, and left for Minnesota, where they changed their minds after giving a verbal agreement.
And here we are again, now it is San Diego. Every GD year, UM getting ready for the playoffs, Jim trying to get an NFL job. At what point to we stop this insanity?
We've made the playoffs 3 years in a row. If this is insanity - keep me committed.
DeleteI'm excited. Not impressed at all with the SEC this year, and Bama specifically. I think we win with D, so I look forward to thunder's write up on that side
ReplyDeleteOn 0, I expect us to struggle. Passpro is suspect, and karsen Barnhart is no Zinter. JJs legs, his arm on the move & our big TEs will be the difference, but I am hopeful that the are some special uses unleashed for The Don
thatd be great. tough to win rings these days though relying on D and field goals.
Deleteif they show up to play a similar game as vs iowa, thats tough sledding. 200 something total yards wont cut it. usually need both run/pass balance and explosive plays to beat saban. as always excellent QB play goes a long way too.
clearly players must execute however the staff also needs to alter their approach this game. the staff has to give mccarthy enough opportunities both in/out pocket to make plays. good luck hammering duo on 1st/2nd downs only to throw in obvious passing situations.
break tendencies early and dont slow down. and hunt for explosive plays - mindset cant be 'just try to stay on schedule' every single series.
this games on the OL and staff. mccarthy has been fairly consistent, as have corum, TEs, etc - but does the staff plus OL execution allow them to remain balanced and to stress every inch of the field
I've read the same re: Iowa, but what did people expect? Score once and the game was all but decided. After that, why bother putting stuff on tape? Win healthy, that was the goal
DeleteHarbaugh and the coaches turn into pumpkins in these games. Maybe because Jim is spending his time trying to get an NFL job vs getting the team ready. And here we go again, last year Jim was on his knees for Minnesota and this year it is San Diego. This is just madness at this point. YOU get what you tolerate.
ReplyDeleteAt any rate, the 4 weeks of game prep in the past has looked like they took out the "Minnesota" game plan, changed the date, then set 4 weeks on fire while coming out and looking like garbage.
I said if they tried that against PSU they would lose.
I was wrong.
I said if they tried that against OSU, they would lose.
I was wrong.
Well, don't be surprised if they prep and play this game like they are playing Rutgers in Oct. Setting downs on fire, 3 and 8. No play action passes. Trying to run duo with LBs crashing the box. WR Can't get separation because they average. Edwards is a match-up issue with LB's and safeties so of course they will try to run him he is Jerome Bettis. TE's will be an issue for their LB's so maybe, on 3 and 8, they might run that, but then BAMA will be in a nickel.
Can they prove me wrong again by running a predictable offense?
Hope so.
I'm pretty sure the Minnesota interview was two seasons ago
DeleteTrue, last year it was Denver (Or was it Indianapolis? or both?). Hard to keep track. Freaking sick of it.
ReplyDeleteI like getting to the playoffs, all good.
ReplyDelete13-0, outstanding.
Getting torched by a tomato can because the team looked like the coach spent the prior 4 weeks interviewing for NFL jobs, not so much.
I don't think it is unreasonable to expect the coach to prepare the team for important games vs doing zoom interviews with every other garbage NFL team. This is not a one time thing. And here we are again, San Diego. BAMA coming up, UM favorite ONCE again, and it is Minnesota job...errr. I mean Denver job ...errr..San Diego job as the main story.
I would give JH 1 week to sign that extension and on day 8 give him the firm handshake, with draw the contract, wish him well, promote the OC and move on.
Thank God you're not AD
Delete"No player is more important than the team.
DeleteNo COACH is more important than the team.
The Team, the Team, The TEAM"
F that, right.
We have a complete STIFF as an AD now. Basketball? The crap we have tolerated from Howard without the wins.
ReplyDeleteThe Hockey debacle.
Allowing the Football coach to interview for jobs DURING the playoff period makes the school look like a bunch of pikers.
Allowing the coach to clean out his office, basically quit, then come back like nothing happened? That is like a Seinfeld episode. No other college with an AD that was not a complete stiff would tolerate this madness.
On the other hand I would tell the NCAA to take their Hamburgs, their advance scouting allegations and talk to the hand. See Ya in court.
No other AD would tolerate it, but you'd still give him a week to sign?
Delete"JH is family. He played here, he grew up here. His is the best coach in US. I want him here for the rest of his coaching years. I am offering JH a contract that will make him highest paid coach in the B10. I don't want there to be any doubt on the University's, the Dept, or my commitment to keep Jim here where he belongs"
ReplyDeleteHe would have one week to sign it and if he didn't he just told me what he thinks of university, me, and football team.