Tuesday, January 9, 2024

National Champs! Michigan 34, Washington 13

 

These guys are national champions! It's amazing to think of what had to come together for this team to win a national championship. From an outsider's perspective, Alabama and Georgia just seem to kind of fall into a national championship. They throw a lot of money at the football program, they're in recruiting hotbeds, and magically, they just end up in the championship. I know that sounds trite, and obviously, there's a lot of play calling, hard work, toughness, culture building, etc. that goes into winning a championship. But I don't know that any national championship team in recent memory can compare with what this team had to go through to get there, including:

  • Hiring the golden boy QB/coach to come back to Michigan from the NFL in 2015
  • Morons who thought Jim Harbaugh should have been fired sometime around 2020
  • Overcoming basically multiple decades of Ohio State dominance in the Big Ten
  • Bringing back guys who could have gone to the NFL (Zak Zinter, Blake Corum, Trevor Keegan, etc.)
  • Limitations with recruiting and transfers due to NIL shortcomings and admissions nonsense
  • A QB battle that resulted in the incumbent starter transferring to Iowa
  • Year after year of a head coach being courted by the NFL
  • Enduring the loss of All-American RG Zak Zinter in the middle of the Ohio State game
  • Having Jim Harbaugh suspended for 50% of the 2023 regular season, including the two toughest games against Penn State and Ohio State
  • The NCAA and Big Ten seemingly conspiring to try to damage Jim Harbaugh and/or force him out of college football
  • Drawing #4 Alabama, a battle-tested and proven program, in the College Football Playoff instead of 13-0 newbies Florida State

Of course, there are other struggles and roadblocks that are too numerous to mention, but it was a long and difficult road for this team to win on the biggest stage in college sports.

Donovan Edwards breaks out. I've been quick to point out his struggles this season, so I have to be quick to point out where Edwards succeeds. Edwards ran 6 times for 104 yards and 2 touchdowns. That comes after a season when he had been ranked as the second-to-worst Big Ten running back in terms of yards per carry (3.48 coming into the national championship game). Edwards found a couple big holes and used his explosive speed to outrun Washington's secondary, which I mentioned in the lead-up to the game was one of the worst tackling units on the schedule. Up through fourteen games this season, Edwards's longest run of the year was 14 yards. Then in his first couple carries against Washington, he had two runs that were 40+ yards (46- and 41-yard touchdowns). Michigan had 14 points in no time thanks to Edwards's big plays.

The whole running game had a day. Every Michigan player who ran the ball averaged 7.0 yards per carry or better. Michigan ended up averaging 8.0 yards per carry (38 carries, 303 yards, 4 touchdowns). Starting running back Blake Corum's long run went for 59 yards; altogether, he ran 21 times for 134 yards and 2 touchdowns. At one point the broadcast put up a statistic that said Michigan averaged 31 yards per carry in the first quarter, 4.4 in the second quarter, and 4.0 in the third quarter. They were talking as if Washington had shut down Michigan's running game, and I was thinking, "Ummm . . . that's just getting it back down to average, guys." It's like when your co-worker shows up 30 minutes late to work every day, and then when they finally get there on the dot at 8:00 a.m., it's like, "Hey, everybody! Look how awesome Larry is for showing up on time for the first day this month!"

This was not J.J. McCarthy's day. I actually think McCarthy did just fine - and he made some great throws - but Michigan had so many ways to be dominant in the run game that the passing game was almost irrelevant. Michigan probably could have gone with the second half Penn State script for this entire game and won the day. The Wolverines were having such great success in the run, and they weren't even testing the edges with jet sweeps, QB sweeps, etc. McCarthy finished 10/18 for 140 yards. He had some open receivers, but Washington's pass rush was solid. The matchups just favored Michigan's running game so much that McCarthy could be a complementary piece. I thought Michigan probably could have/should have run him more, but they only used one designed run for him.

Kudos to Washington. Washington put up a valiant fight. They hung around for 3.5 quarters, and it was 20-13 late into the game. Then Michigan broke it open late with the Blake Corum touchdowns. I thought their defensive line and linebackers showed some toughness. There were a couple standout plays by linebacker Edefuan Ulofoshio (who lined up like he was going to rush the passer on 4th down, only to run out to the flat and bat down a pass intended for Roman Wilson) and safety Dominique Hampton (who punched out a ball intended for Colston Loveland). Running back Dillon Johnson put in a hard day's work on a bum knee/ankle to run 11 times for 33 yards and catch 2 passes for 24 yards. Offensively, they outcoached Michigan to scheme open receivers and even get some running lanes, but physically, they weren't a match.

Let's talk about Michael Penix. Michigan held the best passer in the country to 27/51 for 255 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. They only sacked him one time (from NT Kenneth Grant), but they harassed Penix repeatedly. They were pushing offensive guards back in Penix's face, forcing his own linemen to step on Penix's ankle. Then they hurt Penix's ribs. By the fourth quarter, I was thinking, "How long can Washington keep him in this game without risking his future?" There are apparently some NFL scouts who think wide receiver Rome Odunze is better than Marvin Harrison, Jr., and Odunze was held to 5 catches for 87 yards. Ja'Lynn Polk is considered to be a 2nd-3rd round prospect, and he had 4 catches for 37 yards. Third receiver Jalen McMillan, known for his yards after the catch, had 6 catches for just 33 yards and 1 touchdown. Penix did miss some throws he usually makes, but you have to credit Michigan's defense for making him uncomfortable enough to miss some routine throws.

Michigan's defense was mostly awesome. The best play of the day can be debated, but for me, it was when Penix threw a quick out to McMillan on 3rd-and-7. With a reputation for running after the catch and a good amount of open space, McMillan had a chance to get the first down. Instead, nickel corner Mike Sainristil wrapped him up, held on tight, spun him to the ground, and killed the drive. You could also argue that Grant knocking an offensive guard on his butt and then sacking Penix was the play of the day. Or maybe when cornerback Will Johnson tipped a pass to himself and then secured an interception just inside the sideline to stop Washington's first drive of the third quarter. There were a couple coverage busts, but overall, it was a dominant day against a very good offensive unit.

What does this mean to me? Michigan winning the national championship means a lot of things. I, of course, know I had nothing to do with the win, but this is why we watch sports. We all latch onto one team - or maybe a few - and root for them. I've been a Michigan fan since birth. I remember going to Michigan Stadium in the freezing cold and eating a hot dog as a kid sitting in the stands, watching Ricky Powers and Desmond Howard and Tony Boles and Elvis Grbac and Tyrone Wheatley. I remember where I was when Charles Woodson made that interception in the Rose Bowl following the 1997 season. So many Michigan memories have that "I was with (insert friend/family member) at (insert place) when (insert magical moment)."

And a lot of those hopes about winning national championships faded over the years, not because I thought Michigan was falling off, but because so much talent was getting concentrated in the SEC. I don't care what sport you're a fan of, but eventually, you get sick of watching the same team(s) win championships year after year. If I weren't a fan of Tom Brady, I would have been sick of the Patriots. I'm not a fan of the Yankees, so I got sick of them really quickly back in the 1990s and early 2000s. When people asked me what I thought about Monday's national championship game beforehand, I said, "Whoever wins, I'm just glad they won't be from the SEC." And yes, this means that people will be sick of Michigan soon, and that's only if they're not already annoyed by Jim Harbaugh dominating the headlines.

But this confirms that schools from other parts of the country, not just the southeast, can still win championships in football. This confirms that high academic standards aren't going to preclude a team from winning. It also shows that teams can still win by running the ball and playing good defense.

Who's got it better than us?

Nobody.

22 comments:

  1. HAIL TO THE VICTORS!

    What a great great team. Just the embodiment of everything you hope that sports teaches people. Unselfishness, hard work, resilience, toughness, belief and above all The Team The Team The Team.

    I've been reading this blog and commenting for over a decade now. It's so cool that our fanbase has these rabid fans who stick through the tough times and want to talk about the team in January, October, and even May. 5-7 or 15-0 -- we are there and we are here.

    I certainly felt the let down in 2020 and even 2017 in ways I did not feel it during the Hoke era. Or maybe I was just numb after the fall off the cliff in 2009-2010. Regardless, it's indisputable that about half our fanbase was ready to let the best damn coach in the world, for Michigan, if not everyone else, go take a hike. That was absolutely nuts. But many stuck through and even those that didn't, can be excused for being emotional about it. Even that speaks to passion in a way.

    Anyway, shout out to Thunder, Roanman, even JE -- this little blogspot micro-community is definitely a group of real fans who give a F about this team and earn a bit of extra celebrating for sticking through. There has been no wavering here. So while my 8 year old who doesn't know anything but beating Ohio State and some freshman at Michigan dancing to Mr Brightside in the streets of Ann Arbor last night are permitted to celebrate as much as anyone, and we may not be celebrating any louder then them, I think we feel it in our soul in a way that they don't know. At least not yet.

    Today and always forever. It's great to be a Michigan Wolverine!

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    1. This game --

      UW's pass coverage was excellent all night. Guys were not open. Everything in the pass game was tough sledding. The analytics were spot on - this was a good pass D...and their rush D was completely overwhelmed. Agree with Thunder 100% that Michigan could have run more, and it probably would have been a more convincing win if they had. But Harbaugh and Moore know the importance of balance and didn't want UW to tee off on the run. JJ and Colston, Roman did just enough.

      But the stars of the game were on the other side of the field IMO. That performance against THAT offense was unbelievable. A season low for the Huskies. 13 points isn't that remarkable for this defense but it's a season low for UW and they had plenty of possessions and opportunities. Yes we got lucky on a couple drops but Penix threw over 50 times! Not like we didn't drop a couple on our side also.

      Penix got absolutely beat up and was pressured all night. Michigan held him to his lowest passer rating of the season by far. For those of us paying attention it was no surprise. This D did the same thing to OSU, Alabama, PSU.

      We've seen Michigan have a top defense before, but the physicality and depth that this year's team displayed is awesome.

      You look at the secondary and guys like Sabb, despite his missed tackle early, stepped up into a huge role in the title game. Wallace, an impact transfer, made a difference all year but really proved all the doubters wrong in the playoff. Paige dinged up but played through it and made an outstanding tackle in the red zone. I don't need to say anything about Moore, Johnson, and Sainristil because it's too obvious.

      Linebackers -- Colston and Barrett didn't get a ton of hype but those guys were NFL-caliber players back there. Barrett's ability to drop into coverage unlocked a lot of things for Minter - who is just a stud DC. Portal addition Hausman kept them fresh all year too.

      DL of course was the stars of the defense. Kenneth Grant was a mean son of a gun last night and let Washington know about it. Penix wore down and I think Graham/Grant/Jenkins were the biggest reasons for that. The run game wasn't going anywhere last and I think Harrell and McGregor also get some credit here for a bit of reemergence relative to the previous games where Moore and Stewart outshined them.

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  2. Dillon Johnson, not JJ Dillon (as I referred to him earlier)

    Our QB didn't look especially sharp early, but asking him to fire a dart on a timing route against a good secondary - while the run game was humming - threw us off our momentum

    Penix in the 2d Half: 9 of 26, 1o7yds, 2INT ... lots of media talk about how penix would be the best we faced, without nearly as much on how we were the best he's faced

    I'm exhausted. We could never afford a game growing up, so you bet I have been flying the family around the last three years. What a chapter in CFB history!

    GO BLUE!

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  3. couple notes:

    - last week, after Bama played their HumpYourSister sing along - and M sidelines led our fans to steal that energy - our offense woke up and finished. Last night, after Mr Brightside, our offense woke up & finished

    Truly an incredible experience

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    1. Cool thing I saw seated in the Bama section of the Rose Bowl was that all the Michigan fans (around us at least) embraced the team's attitude. We all sung, dance, clapped, or bopped our heads to Bama's country jingle. Why not! Have fun with it. Embrace the moment. Jump around or stomp your foot or whatever it is. Everyone's here in the end to watch Michigan win LOL.

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  4. Too soon? Never!

    I hope we have guys probing the portal - or nudging guys from other teams into it. We could experience a big drop-off, and need to catch-up

    Any player eligible for the draft should be considered gone, and replacements should be lined up

    Onward

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    1. Yep it's just what it is now. The portal is just as, if not more, important than HS recruiting and any program living in the past (like Clemson) is going to fall behind. Would be nice to give it time but Michigan needs to know from JJ, Edwards, Barner, Nugent, Mullings, Paige, Stewart, etc what their plans are very soon. And of course everyone will ask Harbaugh the same thing but they all have to make their own decisions.

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  5. What a great run and a true TEAM championship! So many contributors on this team and the defense in particular really showed its resilience and depth. It feels so good to have a dominating DLine again. So happy for all the guys that bought in, sacrificed and stuck with it.

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    1. Agreed about the TEAM thing. I was listening to The Audible Podcast (Bruce Feldman and Stewart Mandel) this morning, and Feldman hit on the "no star" thing once again. And he meant it in a positive way. But he had a good point in that this team wasn't powered by a superstar QB, a superstar WR, a superstar RB, etc. Guys like Ezekiel Elliott, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, etc. have propelled other teams to championships in recent years. Of course, there are other good players on those teams - nobody can do it by himself - but there's no surefire 1st round pick who's making all this happen for Michigan.

      Corum? He's supposedly a day two guy.
      McCarthy? He's anywhere from QB #3 to QB #5 if he comes out this year, behind guys like Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, etc.
      No Orlando Pace-level offensive tackles.
      No Aidan Hutchinson-like pass rusher.

      There are some guys who might go in the first round (Zak Zinter, at least pre-injury; McCarthy could slip in there somewhere; Kris Jenkins was rumored to be a 1st round guy before the season, though I don't necessarily agree), but by and large, this is just a very deep team of good players. Guys like Colston Loveland, Will Johnson, Kenneth Grant, Mason Graham, etc. may end up being highly sought after by the NFL, but usually there's a superstar or two that the NFL is just dying to get in that year's draft.

      I think it's possible that Michigan could have won the 2023 championship...and then not have a single 1st round pick in 2024. There will be lots of players drafted by the end of the 7th round, but by pick #32? I'm not so sure.

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    2. and the depth! My God, we rotated at every position group regularly

      That OT was our high energy Defense against an exhausted crimson tide

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    3. It seems like JJ and Will Johnson are near locks to be 1st rounders. I would bet on a few others (Kenneth Grant?) joining in. But it's been well demonstrated that Michigan has had less pure NFL talent/starz than most other national champions of recent vintage. Not much less - when we look back on this OL and D I think you're going to see NFL players almost everywhere, in a way that wasn't the case in 1997.

      Depth, experience, coaching, culture have given Michigan the edge. A big chunk of that is savvy use of the portal. The recruiting sites continue to misevaluate this badly because they continue to draw a straight line from high school to NFL. In the Portal NIL era they're going to have to find a new way to evaluate players that's different than where they are drafted. Or they'll get passed over by someone else who will.

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  6. I thought that the play of the game was McCarthy's scramble up the middle. We needed that play bad as stuff wasn't going real great for us at that particular instant.

    Beyond that, I can't even begin to process this. I was at Michigan during those years where we went 30-2-1 and never went to a bowl game. You can believe me when I tell you that the level of Bponage residing in the depths of my psyche is likely as deep and wide as anyone you have ever met or even heard of. Were it possible I'd cheerfully compare scars with Brian, sort of a Jaws kind of thing ... only spiritual. I will confess to having got up in the middle of the night twice and watched every replay available, just to make damn sure it really happened.

    I loved 97, but we never got the opportunity to play Nebraska for it. I think we win that game if only because Scott Frost as a player was Ricky Leach reincarnated. I love Ricky Leach with all my heart, but as a quarterback, he was a great, great Right Fielder. I know, I've said that before.

    To unquestionably win it on the field ... finally ... is ... I don't even know.

    Thank you to Lanky for acknowledging me, but this site is Thunder's and Thunder's alone. It's my first and favorite place to visit every morning. And I bounce back throughout the day, every day hoping that Thunder has found some time. Also hoping for Thunder that his life gets easier going forward.

    Roanman

    As an aside, Dennis Franklin was throwing the football on New Years Day, 1974. And yes, I am still more than a little bitter.

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    1. I agree on that McCarthy play. That was huge, even if it didn't lead to a touchdown. I was hoping Michigan would have used his legs in the run game prior to that. For whatever reason, it seemed like that jogged Moore's memory that McCarthy can run, because then they ran the lone designed run for him and he broke off another chunk.

      I'm not sure what would have happened against Nebraska in 1997, but I do get tired of people taking shots at Michigan and saying, "All they had in the modern era was one SHARED title back in '97." Well...Michigan went 13-0 and did everything they could that year. Much like Florida State in 2023, there was nothing more they could do except win every game on their schedule.

      Thanks for the compliments (and the well wishes), and I'm glad you enjoy visiting the site. It would be pretty boring around here if you and others didn't pipe in with some feedback, stories, etc. It's not a big community - though there are lots of lurkers - but it's a consistent one.

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    2. Once we went up big, I understood not leading with JJ's legs, but thought some zoneread or a quick look & take off would help get him going. But man, those timing routes, from the pocket, across the field were more NFL tryouts than reasonable CFB warm-ups



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    3. I have no real problem with sharing the title with Nebraska. People can hold on to that asterisk all they want but Nebraska and Michigan fans are both happy and proud. I know it doesn't work this way for many people but the way I see it is simple -- both teams won the national championship. The controversy is something I got over many years ago.

      The "we did everything we could do" narrative isn't compelling to me though. It goes for 2023 Liberty too. Yeah, you can only play the schedule in front of you, of course, but your AD sets your schedule and you play in a the conference you play in. Sorry, Liberty, you didn't earn a national title because you didn't beat any good teams. You did everything you could and still wasn't enough. You earned your conference title but that's the end of it. FSU is close enough that they could have had a case but they decided to quit their preseason so it's hard to have much sympathy.

      This is the real world. I can train everyday and devote my life to sprinting (do everything I can) and it doesn't mean I'm going to be the fastest sprinter in the world.

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  7. Hail to the Victors!

    I have been a Michigan football fan for the past 30 years and I did not think Michigan will ever win a Natty in the BCS era. I believed in the "Stars Matter" mantra that has been widely perpetuated by mainstream media.

    I am probably in the minority but the exhilaration I felt after the 2021 Ohio State game still topped last night's game. 2021 Ohio State game was the turning point where I finally dared to dream "perhaps.....". The Washington game felt winnable. We are afterall the favourite.

    As Thunder/Lank mentioned, this is indeed this Michigan TEAM is indeed special. No sure-fire first rounder and yet I would pick this Michigan team against any other team. Advanced stats (S&P+) says this Michigan team is the best defense in the 2020s. I did not believe it at first but after last night's game, I believe.

    What a great day to be a Michigan fan!

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    1. Starz matter but they're not the only thing that matters. It's always been that way.

      I did not expect a national title either. The way I looked at it was this -- Michigan has a lot of disadvantages relative to Alabama, OSU, Texas, Florida. Question was -- What was Michigan going to do to get an edge over the top 5 elite programs to make up their talent deficit?

      The answers, in my mind, came to 3 things:

      1. elite coaching (Harbaugh, Minter, Elston etc.),
      2. elite use of the portal (veteran additions along the trenches - TE/OL/DL and to fill holes - Wallace/Tuttle),
      3. elite use of NIL money (focused on retention rather than high school - Keegan, Zinter, Corum, Wilson).

      A guy like AJ Barner or Ladarius Henderson or Josiah Stewart is more valuable than your typical (average) 5-star recruit out of high school and I think Michigan understood that better than most other programs. A lot of high school kids are getting recruited for what amounts to 1 year of starting, so getting a guy performing at peak levels (like Keegan or hell even somebody who is just "good" like Cornelius Johnson) to return for just one season is worth multiple high school recruits (since the majority of those will NOT be starters at all).

      Perhaps it has to do with Harbaugh's NFL background and being used to signing free agents to address team needs rather than relying solely on the draft. We spend a lot of time gnashing teeth about Portal and NIL but I think Michigan was flat out smarter than most other programs on this front and thats a big reason why they are enjoying the spoils now.

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    2. 100% agree that Michigan has used NIL money very wisely to retain players and attract players in the portal.

      I think NIL came at the right time for Michigan. We happened to have a senior laden class that would have bolted for the draft if not for NIL. Without NIL, I doubt we have that many seniors stay back for 1 more year. I am not saying that the players return for the money. I truly believe these players love playing with each other but there is no doubt the NIL money helped. And it is relatively easy to get transfers if you tell them that you are the missing link (e.g. Josh Wallace, Barner, Olu)

      I have my doubts that we will be able to attract portal transfers as easily as the past 2 years. Look at this year's portal class. We have not done much even though we have so many players leaving.

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    3. @FT

      Yeah it is hard to stay ahead of curve, even if you were out ahead of the pack. Everyone is watching. Everyone wants to emulate success.

      That said, I think there's still a lingering preference for winning the headlines with skill position talent at most places. Michigan can keep working in the unglamorous territory - OL, TE, DL, smaller school guys and lower level Big Ten players with upside and character.

      The 2 guys we've brought in sofar are all-conference players but because it's an OG and LB I bet most people celebrating our national title don't know them, let alone remember their names. Recruiting is always kind of a fringe interests for rabid fans, but even within that group - I bet more people know the name of Channing Goodwin than now Josh Priebe. That will change by November when one of them is in the starting lineup. But they are both just 3 stars so....

      It's all about fit but if I was managing the Michigan NIL budget my efforts would be focus on getting back Trente, Barnhart, Nugent, Paige, Stewart, Colson. The new reality is that if Michigan isn't doing it -- another program is coming after these guys.

      The only place I disagree with you is your skepticism about attracting portal transfers. I don't see any reason for Michigan to take the foot off the gas. If anything, with a lot of NFL departures this year, I would say we should be pushing harder for a portal class of 10-15. Not a lot of positions where we couldn't use a guy and a few where there are big needs already (WR, TE, CB).

      The only reason IMO we haven't landed more guys yet is we've been a little focused on winning that natty. Guys will continue popping into the portal well through spring practice, and even beyond (as we saw with Okie, who for now is an outlier, but won't be for long).

      It just makes too much sense. Imagine if youre an under the radar recruit but shine as a freshman in the MAC. Why wouldn't you go to a better school, bigger program, and collect bigger NIL checks in the Big Ten or SEC? Imagine you've graduated (after 3 or 4 years) and you're a fringe all-big ten player but your team stinks -- why wouldn't you get paid to experience winning at an elite program like Michigan/OSU/PSU/USC? The benefit of these kind of players is obvious to the program but it's also increasingly evident to players.

      The supply is going up. The demand is going up. I see now reason not to expect more more more.

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    4. A couple of observations as the celebration continues on...

      Not much being said by a lot of former players who transferred to other programs but here is a very classy post from Andrel Anthony.

      https://twitter.com/andrel_jr/status/1744595081502290421

      Still bummed to lose this kid and wish he was still on the team. Unlike some guys at Iowa...

      In some of the retrospectives on HOW Michigan won this thing I have gotten to thinking that the 5-star talent we did have (JJ and Will Johnson) is at arguably the two most important positions we could have possibly landed on. Took a legacy connection for us to get there though.

      And then there are two or three 5-star talents who were simply not evaluated that way at DT in Graham, Grant, Jenkins.

      It's surprising we got to where we got without elite talent on the EDGE but between the depth and experience and some still pretty good talent we made that work.

      The other critical spot OL - we maybe don't need the talent premium at the college level - depth and experience maybe more important here - as we saw against Alabama.

      WR - deemphasized for us. TE -- Loveland might be a 5-star talent too.

      LB - not a big deal

      DB - huge deal and this is the one where we probably punched above our weight more than anywhere else. Credit to Clink but also a few college level players (e.g., Sainristil, Wallace) who may not do much in the NFL but just played their butts off at this level and mostly avoided mistakes.

      All of that is to say we got elite talent where it counts most, even if we don't have 5-stars all over.

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    5. This team reminds me of the 1972 Pittsburgh Steelers. Joe Greene dominated the middle along with the steel curtain getting pressure with 4. Chuck Noll ran the ball with two backs and threw only as a change of pace. Usually deep because the passing rules at the time made a dink and dunk offense impossible. The back 7 could all run and cover.
      A LOT of the games they just choked out the opponent like michigan.

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    6. Run first, run often ... 6o-4o split this year, despite our best QB in program history

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