Bad game plans are the norm. After Saturday's 21-7 loss to Illinois, Sherrone Moore said he needs to re-evaluate himself as a head coach. I'm not ready to throw Moore out after half a season with no functional quarterback, but I am very disappointed in him and offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell. There are all kinds of glaring issues with this offense:
- If ground-and-pound is your identity, stick with it. Michigan needs to be a run-first team. That's the only way they're going to win. Everybody has known that the entire off-season, even when we had higher hopes for Alex Orji or Jack Tuttle or Davis Warren or whoever. Early in the game, Michigan was using the passing game and Donovan Edwards. How are you going to wear down a team down the stretch by throwing the ball with a weak passing game and running Donovan Edwards? The bulls in the backfield are Kalel Mullings, Benjamin Hall, and Alex Orji. Pound the ball!
- Speaking of Alex Orji, he should be on the field. Probably the most frustrating thing about Michigan's offensive personnel decisions is that Alex Orji - who played last year while J.J. McCarthy was here and who was deemed "one of the best 11" by Campbell in the off-season - has disappeared from the offense for the past two games. How do you go from one of the best 11 to a guy who doesn't see the field at all? I was not a fan of Orji as a starting quarterback who played the entire game, but he can be used as a mooseback runner. Hell, Michigan used Hassan Haskins in a wildcat role. You can put a 6'3", 235 lb. guy back there with Mullings and/or Hall and/or Edwards and still do some things. Orji just can't be playing an entire game as the only option.
- Donovan Edwards is both underused and frustrating. How did Michigan take one of the better receiving backs in the country and turn him into a guy who has 9 catches for 46 yards through seven games? He also had zero receptions in this game. Michigan needs to figure out ways to get him the ball. And then, of course, he had a very frustrating fumble on Michigan's longest run of the day, a 19-yarder where the ball was punched out. He had 7 carries for 38 yards, but with the 19-yarder ending in a fumble, that's basically 6 carries for 19 yards . . . which is nothing special.
- Plan for Jack Tuttle. Tuttle isn't a guy who can do straight dropback stuff to win the game. He's a game manager type who needs to be a complement to the run game. The offensive line can't pass block - although I feel like they did slightly better in this game - and the receivers can't get open with regularity. Michigan's coaching staff should be using for Tuttle the game plan they used with Alex Orji, while occasionally mixing in a downfield/intermediate shot, maybe once a quarter.
Hit the jump for more.
The defense was fine. There were some glitches here or there, but I thought the defense overall played okay. Illinois' starting quarterback, Luke Altmyer, went 9/18 for 80 yards and 1 touchdown. They gave up 267 total yards of offense, and 36 of those yards were on a fake punt run by Illinois TE Tanner Arkin. The major difference was probably the penalties, which seemed to come at more inopportune times for Michigan. While both teams had 6 penalties called against them, Illinois had 50 yards in penalties and Michigan had 61. But the Wolverines were called for several pass interference fouls. Giving up 21 points to a decent offensive team that was given solid field position isn't a shameful performance. The offense put them in bad positions.
Michigan needs to hit the portal hard this off-season. This isn't a novel statement, but there needs to be a major upgrade at the quarterback and receiver positions. And the Wolverines are also going to need to replace defensive ends, defensive tackles, and defensive backs. There's a ton of work that needs to be done. Unfortunately, I'm not seeing the young, upcoming talent to make me excited about what's to come. Michigan has a decent recruiting class for 2025, but that group is going to take until 2026 or 2027 to be ready to be major contributors. Sherrone Moore isn't going to last that long if he doesn't start to right the ship in 2025.
YES. Pound (the MF) ball!
ReplyDeleteNo passes to Edwards is criminal. I get running him, because he's a BOOM waiting to happen ... but that ain't our (or his) main thing
OL pass pro grades are out. Not great. Watching both Tackles get beat 1on1 on that 4Q Sack was infuriating
CBs are getting flagged because they suddenly can't cover mediocre Receivers. That's on Morgan
Portal. I've been saying this since December, but we need a guy dedicated to running a staff for this. Scrubbing rosters. Watching tape. Talking to Analyst "underground." Meddle & reel in guys we need to fill current & coming holes
I think Michigan has a guy now in Sean Magee who's responsible for analyzing the roster, finding guys in the portal, etc. I don't know that his vision/impact can really be felt yet since he's only been on the job for half a year.
DeleteFor Magee, I would imagine a job of this magnitude requires a staff. Lots of digging. Low level guys who know guys at other programs that can unearth gems
DeleteThey are relying on random connections to get guys like Charleston and Warren onto the roster on the cheap, but I agree that they could do something more systematically and with structure.
DeleteI would say if they just had a guy who was focused on scouting like, the MAC, or something -- they could probably land 6-8 guys a year from that conference who would be a big help. And those guys aren't going to cost you a $1M in NIL.
The lower levels conferences are still an underutilized opportunity IMO. Indiana is having tremendous success with a bunch of guys from James Madison. Our AA caliber edge is from Coastal Carolina. Mike Danna. Etc.
Obviously you've still got to recruit high school, but I would be putting just as much effort into getting the most promising freshman and sophomores from the lower levels of college football as I would high school sophomores and juniors.
Man I am reading this and just saying to myself. Yes. Yes. and then Yes again. and then Yes yet again. and then...
ReplyDelete"Tuttle isn't a guy who can do straight dropback stuff to win the game. He's a game manager type who needs to be a complement to the run game."
How in the world can you have watched Tuttle in this game, where he threw 2 INTs (one called back), fumbled, and almost fumbled again, and see a game manager. After playing 3 quarters against Washington and ALSO fumbling and throwing an INT. After a full career at Indiana that yielded as many INTs as TDs, we see more of the same at Michigan. He also takes way too many sacks, is consistently inaccurate, and makes reads slowly and ineffectively. He is not a game manager. He is a turnover machine. The INTs are BAD. We talk about vision for a RB but Tuttle lacks vision when he's throwing the ball. He throws it to the other teams guys like they aren't there! He turns the ball over consistently and it's not even on difficult stuff it's just carelessness with the ball. This is the exact opposite of a game manager.
Everything else is 100% spot on, Thunder.
not Thunder, but my guess is "game manager" = the guy who hands it to the RB or occasionally uses that in playaction, getting the ball to Loveland (and Edwards!)
DeleteWhat we saw yesterday was Tuttle dropping back away too often. Moore said to Jansen it's because they wanted to get shots downfield. That was the game plan. Tuttle throwing, as with Edwards as RB1 & Mullings on the bench ... they can't do that, and failed
"Moore said to Jansen it's because they wanted to get shots downfield. That was the game plan."
DeleteThat means Moore (and Campbell) were pinning the outcome of the game on hope and low probability plays. If that's something Moore came up with, then shame on him. If that's something Campbell came up with, and Moore went along to get along, then shame on him.
"He's a game manager type who needs to be a complement to the run game."
DeleteSimply handing the ball off is not a complement to the run game.
Throwing the ball to the other team is not a complement to the run game.
Fumbling is not a complement to the run game.
I understand and agree with passing less often and passing downfield less often, but that's not all that "game manager" means. McNamara and McCarthy have been used as game managers many times over the last 3 seasons, but Tuttle has not shown he is capable of that, ever.
Game managers help the team avoid turnovers. Tuttle is a turnover machine.
@Anon
DeleteYes and what in the world made the coaches believe that would work with Jack Tuttle? Did they not make the trip out to Seattle? Did they not hear that Tuttle lost the QB battle at Indiana to Bowling Green's QB in 2022? Were they too young to know he throw 5 INTs to 2 TDs in his first senior year in 2021 as Michael Penix's injury fill-in?
Not 100, but all three interceptions have involved Tuttle staring at his target like he wants a kiss
DeleteThat's not how you coach a game manager
"Game manager" is used here as the type of role his skill set fits. He's not a dynamic runner. He's not a pinpoint accurate passer. He's not a guy with a huge arm. He's not a power running QB.
DeleteIf you have a running QB who's a turnover machine, he's still a running QB. If you have a guy with a bazooka for an arm who's a turnover machine, he's still a guy with a bazooka for an arm.
What skill set? A lack of one thing (or 4) doesn't make you have another thing.
DeleteA game manager's primary skill is decision-making, first and foremost, to avoid damaging mistakes.
Tuttle doesn't have that skill!
He's just bad. I think we can admit that without pretending he has some unspecified attributes that coaches can lean into. Tuttle is just a guy that can do everything at about a D level, EXCEPT avoid turnovers, where he gets an F.
If I was Sherrone Moore, and maybe coaching for my job already... I would rotate QBs. Orji would be one of them. The other would be either Tuttle or Warren, I can't tell which is worse.
ReplyDeleteI would NOT announced a starter. I would NOT declare anyone as "our guy". I would keep everyone guessing, from game to game, series to series, and play to play.
I wouldn't throw much with any of the QBs (even Warren), but I would try to push the defense to react to different skill sets at the position and hope that gives me some incremental benefit in the rushing attack.
When I did throw - I would NOT be attempting any of the intermediate NFL stuff they keep trying to execute. Either the pass attempts are safe short stuff and have no INT risk associated with them, or they are boom/bust plays deep downfield where the reward might be worth the risk of throwing.
Once or twice a game (when the situation makes it worthwhile) I would be throwing up some jump ball arm punts deep Downfield and hope that somebody like Loveland can make a play on the ball. Max protect and let it fly and tell everyone else to go play defense the second it is thrown up. Any of our QBs can do this.
This is an approach of desperation but desperation is the reality.
Finally, since all of the above will also fail (except limiting passes) I would be preparing Jadyn Davis to see snaps once his red-shirt is secured. I'm sure he's not the answer either but all you're trying to do is keep opposing defenses guessing here and maybe keep some hope alive for the future.
Jadyn Davis isn't the answer. What, they're going to put a 6'0", 200 lb. quarterback behind a porous offensive line with no good receivers? That's a good recipe for getting him killed and seeing him transfer.
DeleteNot only that, but Davis is short & has a very low release
DeleteIs he actually 6', or is he more like Jabrill Peppers, who we listed at 6:2? I wouldn't be surprised if he never works out, or is a guy who needs a lot around him to scrape by (think Cade)
@Thunder
DeleteIt's pretty funny that you are still hung up on Davis' height 6'1 when Warren is 6'2 and Orji is 6'3 and Tuttle is 6'4. Seems pretty irrelevant. You can suck at any height.
I agree he is not an answer. He's a freshman who isn't even in the conversation with the worst QB situation I've ever seen at Michigan. It sounds like he needs a lot more development.
Development can start this year since we are probably going to see some blowouts and I'd rather see something that maybe helps us in the future than Tuttle or Warren padding their passing stats against prevent defenses late in games.
Luke Altmeyer, Max Brosmer, and Will Rogers are 6'2 -- an inch taller than Davis.
DeleteMiller Moss and Cade McNamara are 6'1 -- same as Davis.
Dillon Gabriel and Braedyn Locke are 6'0 -- shorter than Davis
The Big Ten is littered with starting QBs who are about as tall as Jadyn Davis. Most of them are good.
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https://touch-the-banner.com/jadyn-davis-wolverine/
87 ranking
Scouting report was very positive even when listing him at 6'0 (as opposed to the roster listing him at 6'1 now) with a comparison to Tagovailoa being made.
"Projection: Power Five conference multi-year starter. His NFL upside may be limited by a lack of size/bulk, but he can be a very good college player."
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Again, he is a freshman, so he probably sucks at this point in his career.
But if the problem with this offense is completely inept QB play you would think that the guy with the brightest potential future would maybe see the light of day once his red-shirt is preserved. Which it will be right after MSU. (5 regular season games left, 4 games allowed to play).
If/when Oregon is up by 20+ in the second half, that would be a good time to let your freshman get his toes wet. Not expecting a savior.
The WRs are not getting open consistently but it's irrelevant because when receivers DO get open (e.g., Edwards, Klein, Loveland) the throws are not coming their way. And if they are, they are off target.
ReplyDeleteThis is like someone without a driver's license complaining about a lack of horsepower in a car. An issue, theoretically.
How many Portal guys can we realistically take?
ReplyDeleteQB, RB, WR, TE, OL <--- I just listed every position group on offense. Maybe we can argue TE is OK if we're again willing to ignore the lack of legitimate in-line options.
Defense? LB might be alright with Hausman and Rolder come back. Beyond that? DL is off to the NFL and most of the secondary is turning over.
And that's not even including the unexpected departures of guys we would like to have back (e.g., Sabb, Waller, Moore)
Is Michigan going to take a 20-25 person portal class in the NIL era?
I mean, yes, they gotta do it but what does success even look like if they lean into the portal?
I think to avoid another catastrophic season, you cast a wide net. You're not going to fill every hole, but even one QB & and upgrade WR could have us at 6-1. Just one QB maybe gets that
DeleteGet a QB, WR, Tackle on offense. That's three. Get two DL & a Corner on D. That's six. A lot, but it's a program headed back in the right direction
Sherrone is fighting for his life here. Go big or go home
@je93
DeleteI agree that a QB (even the guy that Minnesota got) could perhaps have us at 6-1 in 2024.
2025 has a lot of holes all over the roster though. Replacing just the NFL guys we are going to lose is all but impossible.
You know I don't think RB matters much, but Edwards and Mullings are gone. 1 WR will go part of the way to replacing Loveland (who is functionally a WR for us at this point). A tackle replaces Hinton. Who replaces Priebe and the other guys treading water throughout the lineup?
The need is overwhelming. If they address things through the portal it would be at an unprecedented scale. The national champs brought in 13 guys last year. The 2024 team added 9 I think. The 2025 team needs WAY more than that.
The six I mentioned are must haves and somewhat realistic ... get more for competition & continue to develop youth, and we go from 5 or 6 wins to 7 or 8 ... not good enough, but progress. But I don't think we're getting two really good OL or three good DL. These transfers want to play (and make money)
DeleteIt's that bad, I agree. But so bad I think almost any progress is sufficient for 2o25
If you nail the portal with say the top 6-8 targets, you're still staring at a team that is struggling to get to 7 wins in 2025, IMO
DeleteYou'd need to get up to about 25 to move the needle, IMO. I don't see that as realistic. I'd be happy to be wrong.
"After Saturday's 21-7 loss to Illinois, Sherrone Moore said he needs to re-evaluate himself as a head coach."
ReplyDeleteHe should. Sometimes people find themselves on stages too big for their experience, and the best thing for all involved is to admit to it and seek another to lead the team (or the ship, or the department, or whatever unit of organization we're talking about). Moore should absolutely do this, and be brutally honest with himself. It's becoming increasingly clear the stage at the University of Michigan is too big a place to have one's first head coaching experience.
Moore was clearly a trusted and valued assistant coach for Harbaugh, and he would no doubt be an excellent assistant coach for any number of programs around the country, including Michigan.
Here's the problem: Warde Manuel is not going to take action until he's absolutely backed into a corner. And if Moore doesn't initiate the change, then Manuel will let this linger on for at least three years, at which point a great deal of institutional damage had been done. If Moore does the self-evaluation and determines he's not called to the be the Michigan head coach, he should offer to resign at the end of this season. That gives Manuel his face-saving out, and allows for a coaching search with sufficient time. If Moore has head coaching aspirations, then find a MAC school to build his experience, and move up from there.
On the other hand, if Moore has a legitimate plan to renovate the program in the off season, then okay ... provided he actually has a plan, and is willing to execute on the plan. I'm not certain he does, or would.
I like Sherrone Moore, and I feel bad for him being caught in this situation. But at some point it's important for a man to admit where his limits are, and to take into consideration the well-being of the broader scope, then do the right thing.
He's not going to resign. That's even more fantastical than hoping Manuel fires him. He's not just going to quit on himself and the team. Zero chance.
DeleteThen let us hope he has a real revelation and does a wholesale house-cleaning of the assistant coaches, firing the worst, and demoting others; and hitting the portal in a significant and very high-dollar way. At this juncture I'm not sure he will. We're seven games deep into 2024, and there's only the smallest glimmer of him being aware there's a problem.
Delete@Anon
DeleteAgree on the last point. There's not much reason to hope right now. Things can change quickly in CFB though.
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I don't think Michigan is suddenly going to be at the top of Portal spending teams anymore than they will be at the top of high school spending teams.
I think the best hope might be for Moore/Manuel to put there heads together and get multiple analysts who are experienced veterans bringing head coaching, coordinator, and position coaching experience to the program to help the young staff out. Guys like Rick Minter and Poggi who are frankly overqualified to be analysts but might appreciate the role and the constraints inherent to it.
My suspicion is that Moore has focused his energy on addressing a (relative) deficiency of the Harbaugh program (high school recruiting) while assuming some other more fundamental things would just continue to happen as they have in the past. I found it troublesome that Moore seemed to spend most of his first few weeks visiting with recruits, but I did not hear that anywhere else.
Moore will not & should not resign
DeleteLose to sparty however, and I'm grabbing my virtual pitchfork ... even then, he stays. Lose out, and he stays
The rest of this season is an open audition, for young players & Asst Coaches
There's no need to "audition" the assistant coaches. The evidence is in.
DeleteAre you saying fire them all, now?
DeleteI find that unrealistic
No, I'm saying Moore finish out this year, then fire most of his staff. And then get serious about the job, or step down.
DeleteIs there any scenario where Kirk Campbell is retained? If no, th3n why "audition" any further?
DeleteThere is no benefit to in season firings. There isn't another OC waiting in the wings on this staff.
DeleteI didn't say to fire them in-season. But the point was made that the rest of the season is an "audition," and that implies a chance some of these coaches could be retained, if their "audition" is successful. I don't see any path for a successful "audition." That's not saying "fire them right now." It's saying they won't be around next year.
DeleteIF, somehow, they turned things around in the second half you could attribute a lot of things to a first year learning curve.
DeleteIMO, the bye week would have been the time to do that. It's not going to happen, but I don't agree the coaches have no opportunity here, just as I don't agree they had no opportunity to find a better QB in the Portal in March or April.
This is not really about the benefits of keeping them it's about the alternative of letting them going being no better, and probably even worse, since the staff would be short-handed.
We can go out and hire Indiana's OC in January, but we can't do it in October.
Yesterday I was ready to have guys walk home. That's the emotional side of being a fan. More realistic is considering what leads to immediate improvement and if there are any costs
ReplyDelete- if we ditch Bellamy, do the WRs start making plays (who's throwing to them)? Do we lose WR commits?
- same with Morgan. Can we do better to replace the SpTms coach with another Secondary guy next year?
- can Campbell be demoted?
There are options, and half a season remains. This is MICHIGAN, and things tend to move more methodically here
My point is, no moves will make things better for the next five games.
That's probably true. However, no moves during this season can easily become no moves over the off-season. This is why Moore has to take a serious look at his organization, and make some hard choices. There's no guarantee he will, though he should.
DeleteI wish I was a fly on the wall at the staff meetings in Schembechler Hall. I would like to see how strong Moore is as a leader of the other coaches. Effective leadership requires a walk along a fine line -- a need to feel "liked" and "buddies" with those under him is fatal; yet at the same time being too "my way or the highway" can be equally destructive. Given Moore is relatively young (38, I think), it has the potential to make it more difficult, particularly for those coaches older than him.
ReplyDeleteMy sense is he's giving Campbell too much leash. My guess is Moore's sense of loyalty is telling him at present to "trust his coaches" and let them run their part of the organization. Moore has an understanding of the offensive side of the ball, and at this point he should sit down with Campbell and tell him, matter-of-factly, "Kirk, what you're doing isn't working, and we have to move in another direction."
Personally I would support the hiring of Brian Ferentz to replace Kirk Campbell as OC. At the very least, we know he would run Mullings on first down and often.
ReplyDeleteLOL. Man this is harsh but has some merit. The gameplan of leaning into Jack Tuttle passing the ball, off a bye week, against a weak run defense, is the absolute dumbest coaching move I can remember seeing, ever, at Michigan.
DeleteIf Campbell is that dumb, and he is actively losing games because of his incompetence, why is there "no benefit to in-season firings?"
DeleteWhat is the benefit?
DeleteAgain, if he's actively losing games due to his incompetence -- which is what you suggested -- then the benefit is eliminate an active agent behind the losing of games. They may still lose the games, but that element of the active agency is removed.
DeleteI don't think the incompetence is limited to Campbell. You have to have a better option and I don't see that in house.
Delete"Taking care of the ball, that's going to be the No. 1 priority, the biggest thing," Moore said. "You want big plays, you want efficiency, but we have to take care of the football."
ReplyDeleteAt least they say they are focusing on the right thing. I am not at practice but based on what we have seen on Saturdays it is very obvious which QB has demonstrated the most ball security.
Pass efficiency. Warren 111, Tuttle 110, Orji 100
Pass attempts per INT. Warren 12, Tuttle 25, Orji 43
Fumbles. Warren 0, Tuttle 2, Orji 0
Sack yards lost. Warren 19, Tuttle 42, Orji 18
My opinion is that Orji should get the bulk of the snaps but I would rotate in Warren or Tuttle for their own series to see if you can keep the defense guessing a bit, if anyone is able to give you a spark, and if/when Orji struggles you give him a chance to regroup for his next series.