RUSH OFFENSE vs. ILLINOIS RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #39 in rushing offense (191.3 yards/game) and #44 in yards per carry (5.06). Kalel Mullings has emerged as the #1 back for the offense (589 yards, 6.5 yards/carry, 6 TD) because of his ability to break tackles and move the chains, but he and Donovan Edwards (353 yards, 4.8 yards/carry, 3 TD) split carries in the last game with 14 each. There may be a shakeup on the offensive line: injured LT Myles Hinton is expected to return, which could allow fill-in tackle Jeff Persi to get a shot at right tackle; and it sounds like Greg Crippen will get a start at center over Dominick Giudice. Defensively, Illinois is #77 against the run (149.2 yards allowed/game) and #96 in yards allowed per carry (4.54). The last two opponents, Penn State and Purdue, have both run for 239 yards. The leading tackler is redshirt sophomore safety Matthew Bailey (6'2", 215) with 38 stops; following him are redshirt junior MLB Dylan Rosiek (6'1", 235) with 35 and redshirt junior free safety Miles Scott (5'11", 210) with 33. The Illini don't have a ton of size up front - their biggest regulars are two 305 pound nose tackles - but they do have a 6'3", 275-pounder at OLB in Gabe Jacas who leads the team with 5 tackles for loss. Michigan should have an advantage when running the ball, especially if Crippen and/or Persi can be improvements over Giudice and redshirt freshman RT Evan Link.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. ILLINOIS PASS DEFENSE
Michigan's passing offense has been abysmal. They're #132 in passing yardage per game (115.0 yards/game), ahead of two service academies only. They're #133 in yards per attempt (5.2), ahead of only New Mexico State. And they're #130 in passing efficiency. There is maybe a little glimmer of hope since seventh-year QB Jack Tuttle took over on the fourth drive of the last game, but he has his limitations. He also hit Amorion Walker on a dig route, and perhaps the 6'3", 182 lb. speedster can become a little bit of a deep threat in the second half of the year. Pass protection has been highly questionable, especially with Link at right tackle, but maybe Persi can help if he gets inserted at right tackle. Illinois is #44 in pass defense (197.3 yards allowed/game), #53 in yards allowed per attempt (6.8), and #52 in pass efficiency defense. Those numbers were largely boosted against the weak first three opponents, but in the past three games, they have allowed over 68% completions in each week with a total of 6 touchdowns allowed and just 1 interception. Junior nickel Xavier Scott (5'11", 190) is the top graded cover guy, but he might be able to be schemed off the field if Michigan uses two or more tight ends regularly; he leads the team with 3 picks, including 2 against Kansas, 1 of which he returned for a touchdown. Redshirt junior transfer CB Torrie Cox, Jr. (5'9", 170) and FS Miles Scott both have 2 interceptions, too. The Illini are tied for 36th in sacks per game (2.33), led by Jacas with 3 quarterback takedowns.
Advantage: Illinois
RUSH DEFENSE vs. ILLINOIS RUSH OFFENSE
For all the talk about Michigan's drop-off in all three phases of the game, the Wolverines are still ranked #3 in rushing defense (76.3 yards allowed/game) and #8 in yards allowed per carry (2.86). Washington's Jonah Coleman managed 80 yards on just 9 carries, but for the most part, opponents have struggled. Defensive tackles Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham clog things up in the middle, and MLB Ernest Hausmann (40 tackles, 2.5 TFLs) has improved throughout the season so far. WLB Jaishawn Barham (30 tackles) and S Makari Paige (25) are the other leading tacklers. The Illini brought in a couple decent tackles from the transfer portal, but the interior players have struggled. Senior RG Zy Crisler (6'6", 235) and redshirt junior C Josh Kreutz (6'2", 294) are the worst and second-worst run blockers on the offensive line, respectively, and Crisler was replaced by sophomore Brandon Henderson (6'5", 335) last game. Illinois is #87 in rushing offense (139.5 yards/game) and #88 in yards per carry (3.89). Freshman 6'3", 250 lb. RB Kaden Feagin (306 yards, 3 TD) will be out with an injury, so it will mostly be redshirt junior Josh McCray (6'1", 235) and redshirt sophomore Aidan Laughery (5'11", 200), who have combined for 68 carries, 326 yards, and 3 touchdowns (all scored by McCray). The player most likely to make a difference with his legs is redshirt junior QB Luke Altmyer (6'2", 205), who has over 200 yards (not counting sacks) this year with 1 touchdown.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. ILLINOIS PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #111 in pass defense (259.8 yards allowed/game) but a respectable #34 in yards allowed per attempt (6.4) and #63 in pass efficiency defense. The injury bug has hit the defensive backfield over the past couple weeks, with Will Johnson, Ja'Den McBurrows, Aamir Hall, and Paige all missing time, not to mention Michigan State transfer Jaden Mangham, who has missed most of the year. Furthermore, #2 CB Jyaire Hill struggled mightily against Washington after seemingly taking some forward steps over the previous couple weeks. The good news is that edge rushers Josaiah Stewart (5.0 sacks) and Derrick Moore (0.5 sacks) should both be healthy this week. Altmyer has had a good year with 67.7% completions, 8.7 yards/attempt, 14 touchdowns, and just 1 interception. His top target is 6'3", 200 lb. WR Pat Bryant (27 catches, 452 yards, 7 TD), who has two 100+ yard games and three multi-score games. But Altmyer also has a good #2 wideout in fifth year senior Zakhari Franklin (6'1", 190), a UTSA transfer with 28 catches for 346 yards and 1 TD. The offensive line is a little better at pass blocking, with redshirt junior LG Josh Gesky (6'5", 325) and Henderson being the biggest weak spots. Despite Altmyer's decent running ability, Illinois is #122 in sacks allowed per game at 3.17, and Penn State made 7 total sacks against them in their last game. Overall, Illinois is #58 in pass offense (242.5 yards/game) and #15 in passing efficiency. The numbers favor the Illini, but if Stewart, Moore, Barham, Graham, and/or others can get after Altmyer, that can be a pretty huge swing.
Advantage: Illinois
ROSTER NOTES
- Illinois players recruited by Michigan include: CB Terrance Brooks, WR Malik Elzy, DT Eddie Tuerk
- Illinois players from the state of Michigan include: LB Mason Muragin (Warren De La Salle), DT Jeremiah Warren (Belleville)
- Illinois LB James Kreutz and C Josh Kreutz are the sons of former Washington Huskies and Chicago Bears C Olin Kreutz
- Former Michigan commit and Illinois LB Dele Harding is now an assistant RB coach for Illinois
- Illinois assistant QB coach Artur Sitkowski was recruited by Michigan before playing for Rutgers and Illinois
- Illinois Director of Football S&C Tank Wright was an associate S&C coach at Michigan in 2018-2019
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .
- On November 19, 2022, undefeated Michigan escaped with a narrow 19-17 win over the Illini
- K Jake Moody kicked the game-winning field goal when the Wolverines were down 17-16
- RB Blake Corum suffered a season-ending meniscus tear after rushing 18 times for 108 yards and 1 score
- QB J.J. McCarthy threw a key 4th down conversion to walk-on RB Isaiah Gash on the game-winning drive; Gash finished with 3 rushes for 6 yards and 3 catches for 24 yards
PREDICTION
- Michigan 24, Illinois 20
Great opportunity to reestablish the team identify on the ground. Fingers crossed that Loveland and Hinton are healing up. Though the season is half over I still have hope for the OL solidifying in the weeks ahead. Key for whoever is QB, which I hope is both Tuttle and Orji.
ReplyDeleteInjuries seem to have taken a toll on the defense effectiveness. On a thin DL it really stings when Moore or Stewart are out, even with Guy proving to be solid. Hall back to take some snaps at CB could help too. Would be nice to get a week of avoiding a lot of big plays given up at inopportune times.
Even though this is a road game, I'm optimistic about seeing a get-right game coming off the bye, especially with the favorable matchups up available on both sides.
Michigan 30 Illinois 13
In a season like this we gotta just enjoy one game at a time.
27-2o
ReplyDeleteOur DL should be able to assert themselves on the Illinois OL
Run the ball lots, and throw juuust enough to keep them honest (to Loveland & Edwards)
Of course, I thought the same about Washington, but we started five passes to three runs (only two for Mullings)
From an "optics" point of view, this game is really important. If Michigan comes out and shows improvement in some key areas, it means they took the opportunity during the bye week to address issues and point the team in a better direction. But if they come out with the same look and feel, and play poorly, then it means no lessons have been learned and the season will likely be a major disappointment.
ReplyDeleteWow… everyone is optimistic about this game, predicting an away victory. Count me in.
ReplyDeleteMichigan 24 Illinois 17
The turnovers at Washington definitely cost us the game, but we had the ball with over six minutes remaining ... Run the MF ball & kill that clock. No turnovers, probably sneak out with a Win
DeleteHealthy OL, Derek Moore back, and Tuttle with practice at QB1 ... we got this
*not having Benny available sucks. The new S&C hasn't been as successful keeping players healthy this year ... something to keep an eye on
- on that first drive, play before the FG was an 8yd cushion on 3rd & 3. That should've been a completion & even a chunk gain. WTF
ReplyDelete- A.Walker with a terrible route to start our day on offense ... we needs playmakers at WR
- five bad throws for Tuttle ... can I please have more Mullings?
- Mullings = instant offense! Big difference between a 2yd run that keeps us behind the sticks and 1-3yd runs that gets us first downs & TDs
- finally, some life out of Sherrone on the 4th Down stop
- turnovers ... zero from Kalel, yet we keep him sidelined on three of five drives ... why was Tuttle the focus of our game plan? Edwards first half is no Boom, plenty of Bust
- it's not that Illinois is good or talented. This team got worse (exposed) since SC. That's coaching
- that PFF nerd is on to something: Warren sucked, but his INTs always had a "well, if this didn't happen ... " Not so with Tuttle
- more Mullings! It's criminal to not run him relentlessly. His backup for the second half should be Ben Hall ... that second fumbles for Don should mean Bench for the game. RBs do matter!
- Will is done. He's looking ahead to the draft
- tackling is an embarrassment
- LBs have to take advantage of an elite DL against the run. DBs have to take advantage of an elite DL in coverage. Sad when they fail
- lose to sparty, I'm on the Fire Sherrone bandwagon
- Gentry is soft. I expect his run grade is low
Delete- coming out of the Half, Illinois rushed three, and still got a Sack. Mullings was open but unseen. I overrated out QB room in the off-season
- illini BACKUP quarterback is better than our QB room
- need to rename Bye week to "no improvement" week
- why do we keep trying to go deep? We have no playmakers! Receivers are too easy to blanket
- Mullings is it. He's the answer ... not sure how to use Loveland with such poor QB play. Each pass is a risk (think Woody Hayes)
- Edwards gets another chance but whiffs on a block
- 3rd & Goal. Three WRs, and none are Edwards. I mean, if you're gonna play him, make the guy a Receiving threat!
- we have a dedicated SpTms coach, and that unit has two atrocious plays coming out of a bye
- pass pro is awful. Both Tackles beat on the 4Q sack
- okay, we're passing because down 14pts w/9min to play ... but zero urgency snapping the ball, and looong developing routes
- Tuttle just eye-fxcking Loveland .. two games with INTs for the exact same reason
- 3rd & 1, they run Edwards not Edwards ...WTF
- OL pass pro grade has got to be lowest of the season. FIVE Sacks ... guys getting abused, yet we sit in the pocket waiting for routes to develop
- 2nd & Long, game is all but lost ... we go short to "playmaker" Kendrick Bell ... then a short crossing route to Morgan on 3rd
- we managed to get worse at QB with each game we played
- our first quick crossing route was to Walker with under a minute remaining ... then all of a sudden we throw two more
- Morris doesn't have the sense to get out of bounds. Game over, but that should be automatic
- six penalties for 61yds. No discipline. Poorly coached
- no Orji, not even as a gimmick. That's telling
- I get we lost playmakers, but we still have a lot of (recruiting & Draft) talent. Jedd & Cigneti doing much more with much less
- this is worse than 2o17. When I said "enjoy every win" after SC, I didn't think sub .5oo would be more likely than 8 win "loser thinking"
- even if we keep Sherrone (we will), OC, RB, WR, OL & DB coaches need to go ... I'm open to ditching the DC as well, but that's a hefty buyout ... Morgan & Bellamy can walk home from Champagne for all I care
GO BLUE
The best thing would be for Moore to tell Manuel he'll resign at the end of this season, and Manuel can start a coaching search. Moore is clearly not the answer. The stage is too big.
DeleteI do not know what else there is to say about this team and this coaching staff that has not been said. I am not ready to quit on the team just yet but I felt that despite the lack of talent on the team, this team has underperformed significantly. If Moore is not on the hot seat, he absolutely should be.
ReplyDeleteThis season shows how precarious things are at the top of the college football mountain. All it takes is a pieces of the machine to be out of whack and things break down. It's not just Michigan, though Michigan is providing a glaring example of it this season.
DeleteIn the case of Michigan, the blame falls squarely on the coaches, for this team has enough talent on defense to be very good (and for the most part, they have been), and on offense to be at least reasonably good. But they have not been very good on offense. No honest evaluation of the offensive side of the ball indicates they are improving: the same uninspired play calling is occurring week after week, and the same poor execution is occurring.
I return to the word "precarious" ... Sherrone Moore is dangerously close to this team quitting on him. The recycled phrases about "not good enough" and "do better" are on the verge of falling on deaf ears.
I said above that Sherrone Moore should give serious thought to announcing that he's an interim head coach, and that he'll step down after this season. That would give Warde Manuel the opportunity to do a proper coaching search with enough lead time to find someone who has some head coaching experience and can take this team into the future.
If I were Warde Manuel I'd be very concerned right about now. The whole of college football is on the verge of a sea-change, and on the other side will be a handful of teams in a new alignment of top-tier programs, and a whole bunch of teams left out, looking up at millions and millions of media dollars that the lower-tier teams will not see.
Minnesota was once a mountain-top program in college football. They no longer are, and never will be again. Michigan could very easily fall into that same state if they are not careful at this moment in history.
Judging by recruiting & draft rankings, we have more talent than Washington & Illinois
DeleteKids simply aren't making plays. Our biggest success comes when we pound Mullings then mix in a little play action. But Kalel didn't even start, and for the second game in a row Campbell & Moore wanted to prove we can pass - we cannot, and it's costing us games
@FT
DeleteI honestly don't think a lack of talent is the issue with this team. It's the issue at QB, yes, but there is plenty of talent beside that.
I think saying the problem is talent, when Michigan is more talented than 80% of the Big Ten is really letting the coaches off the hook.
The DL might be the best DL in America. The LBs might both play in the NFL (or at least be on practice squads). The secondary has a nice mix of talent (Will Johnson, Hill, Berry) and experience (Hall, QJohnson, Paige). The OL is a bunch of seniors and grads who were highly rated recruits and have played well in the past. The RBs are talented and complement each other so well they can both be on the field together. Loveland is a beast and the other TEs are more inexperienced than lacking talent.
WR is subpar talent wise by Michigan standards but there are multiple teams across the Big Ten who have it worse right now.
QB is a big deal, obviously, and we have an inexcusable lack of talent at the position. BUT - with everything else on the roster - you can manage the talent level at the QB position. We won a big ten title with a similar level of QB talent in 2021. I don't expect THAT, but I do expect more than 1 scoring drive against Illinois and turnovers feeling almost as likely as first downs.
" We won a big ten title with a similar level of QB talent in 2021"
DeleteHoly crap, I've never agreed with this guy more ... even with this very bad QB room, we have enough with Mullings to pound away, then get a run-commited defense to give up occasional easy passes to Loveland & Edwards (zero catches yesterday is coaching malpractice)
Not even Texas shut down our run game. 17 carries for 80 yards from our RBs. Every other game has been better than that, obviously. Yesterday? 26 carries for 125. Run the ball!
DeleteThese coaches see stacked boxes and choose to pass to defeat them. Logical enough except this team can't execute in the pass game and the only people who don't see that are the coaches.
They did this even with Orji at times. 1st drive against Washington yields a couple first down and then it's 3 straight passes. Punt. 24-3 lead against Minny late and you get 3 Orji passes mixed with a 10 yard 1st down from Don. INT. Downhill from there (except when they got religion on the game winning FG drive late which was ground heavy).
The difference is they did the "let's try to pass" thing less often with Orji because they were able to accurately assess the lack of passing capability. Somehow with Tuttle and Warren they delude themselves. Those guys suck at passing the ball! Even if they suck less than Orji sucks at passing, they still suck.
Degrees of suck don't matter. What matters is mitigating the damage and the way to do that isn't QB roulette, but doing things other than the thing you suck very badly at.
The important thing is that we had balance. Tuttle completed 63% of his passes and had over 200 yards yesterday. Solid performance. This game is not on him - the offense controlled the clock with over 33 minutes TOP and we outgained the Illini with 322 to 267 yards. Turnovers hurts us, but they aren't everything. The talent of Tuttle is obvious because he is 6'4 and don't let anyone tell you any different. He just has to work on reducing those pesky turnovers, plus throwing behind receivers consistently. the inaccuracy he displayed yesterday, in Seattle, and throughout his career at Indiana is probably a temporary injury issue. It'll likely get sorted out by his next birthday, although he will also be eligible for his retirement pension by then, so we need to see about NIL addressing things to get him back for next year. Anyway, the important thing here is that he is not a "gimmick" QB. Phew, dodged a bullet there. Over 200 yards! Woo hoo!
ReplyDelete------------------------------------------------------------------
Alright I'm done being sarcastic. As I said after last week - Tuttle sucks and whatever pass threat he offers over Orji is not going to change things in the long run because it's going to be incremental and defenses are still going play 1 on 1 with our receivers and get their safeties up to defend the run. With any QB.
So yeah, not a shock that Tuttle was ass. However, I did not expect....THAT.
The QB debate is beside the point, because all 3 options are very bad. The QB debate is exactly the point however, because it's indicative of the coaching staff being in completely over their heads. They are casting about, now on their 3rd starting QB and who knows what starting OL configuration. "Their guy" has been 3 different people and changes from week to week.
There are no right answers here but there are wrong answers. Jack Tuttle is the wrong answer. Davis Warren is the wrong answer. Yes - I am questioning these coaches. These coaches are all in new positions that they are not qualified for, and it shows. These coaches are not Jim Harbaugh, or even Rich Rodriguez or Brady Hoke who had won elsewhere before. The coaches below Moore are not even Tim Drevno or Josh Gattis who had run offenses before. On offense, they are ALL rookies, new to their roles, across the board. They don't know what they are doing.
2 weeks to prepare for Illinois and they come out passing more than they passed when they had JJ McCarthy! With Jack freaking Tuttle!?!
Whatever limits Orji has and he clearly has many -- he is not a walking turnover machine.
There is a path here where this coaching staff recognizes the limitations of the QB position and manages it. Lean into your strength and run the damn ball. We beat USC with 46 rushes to 12 passes. We beat Minnesota with 43 rushes to 18 passes. For this team, this is the way.
Pass the ball? Yes. Screens, dump offs, and easy cheap stuff to get 3 or 4 yards - do that. You don't need JJ McCarthy to do that. Downfield throws to anyone not named Colston Loveland - do not do that! You are throwing the ball to the other team. Do not do that!
Balance would be nice but this team, simply, is not built for that. It's built to have it's defense win games while the offense tries to brute force it's way into scoring just enough to win by a FG. How the coaching staff ignore this is baffling to me. They don't know what they are doing and coming off a bye that is inexcusable.
They should change the QB again, and they likely will because Tuttle is going to get hurt if he isn't pulled entirely. There is a simple reason to go with Alex Orji and that is that Orji is SO BAD at passing that it will disabuse these coaches from the fantasy that they can run an offense as if JJ McCarthy was still the QB.
Could they just run the ball and occasionally dink and dunk pass with Tuttle or Warren? Yes absolutely they could. They have shown they will not. With Orji -- they have shown they will.
Zooming out from the QB decision (indecision), the same inexplicable stuff is happening at other positions like OL and WR. Injuries play a part in things but the depth chart chaos just feels so much like spin-the-bottle randomness.
DeleteI actually thought Campbell called a lot of cool plays yesterday. They are trying. But what they are trying continues to ignore their limitations and the fact that execution is not there.
This coaching staff is producing a team that is so far below the sum of the parts. I have not seen this before at Michigan. The roster is flawed but it is not 7 points against a medicare Illinois team flawed.
I was always patient with Rodriguez and even believed Hoke deserved the years he got. I've always thought every coach deserves at least 3 years to get things together and install their vision into the program. But Moore inherited a lot, even with all the turnover, and he was promoted from within. This is very bad and it is on him.
I believe he will get better. I believe he can be a good HC in time. But he is very far from being a good HC right now. It's not the record - if we were 4-3 because of limitations at QB and overall roster and coaching turnover, that might be alright, IF it looked like the coaching staff knew what it was doing even a little bit, it would be alright. They do not. It is hard to see Moore being successful at MIchigan right now.
It's not going to happen, but if Warde Manual fired Moore at the end of the season I would not be critical of it. Sometimes the wrong person is hired and some jobs can't afford to have a person learning on the job while working their way up to basic competence.
Hopefully we see better against MSU and Northwestern, but at this point I don't expect it. We all know what's coming against Oregon and OSU. The new HC at Indiana will be a stark contrast though. That may be the most frustrating of the remaining games on the schedule. We'll see.
Barring an enormous turnaround, Moore should be fired at the end of next month.
DeleteThis will not happen. But things look so bad at this point that it probably should. Because if you think 2024 looks bad, I have not such good news about the 2025 roster.
Anyone not questioning the coaches at this point is simply delusional. They stuck with this QB room. To the WR room, they added ... CJ Charleston. They claimed to have depth for days at the OL ... our OL is crap in pass pro & too often needs Mullings heroic tackle breaking to keep rushing afloat
ReplyDeleteI don't mind promoting from within, but we did it across the board: HC, OC, QB, WR, OL ... the competition was against other non-proven entities
Feed Kalel/Ben/Don, and get to .5oo ... my prediction is Tuttle remains while "healthy," and Warren replaces him. Hopefully it's a matter of who hands it to Mullings, and creative is limited to how to get occasional touches for Colston & Edwards. I'm fine with the gimmick, but only in that role. 3.4ypa? Yeah, we can get that on the ground