Newbury Park (CA) Newbury Park quarterback Brady Smigiel committed to Michigan on April 26. He picked the Wolverines over offers from Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State, among others, and he was previously committed to Florida State.
247 Sports lists Smigiel at 6'6" and 205 pounds. As a junior in 2024, he completed 219/336 passes for 3,521 yards, 49 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions while also rushing 89 times for 435 yards and 11 scores. Altogether, he has been responsible for 165 touchdowns, thrown 28 interceptions, and thrown for 11,222 yards as a three-year varsity starter.
RANKINGS
ESPN: 4-star, 84 grade, #4 QB, #45 overall
On3: 4-star, 90 grade, #17 QB, #246 overall
Rivals: 5-star, 6.1 grade, #5 QB, #23 overall
247 Sports: 4-star, 91 grade, #8 QB, #126 overall
Hit the jump for more.
There was a time early in Smigiel's recruitment where I thought he might end up being Michigan's quarterback in the class, but then he (surprisingly, at least to me) went off the board to Florida State. But after he committed to Florida State, the Seminoles made some coaching changes following a disastrous 2-10 season; the offensive coordinator was fired, head coach Mike Norvell hired Gus Malzahn, and Norvell also said he would be giving play-calling duties to Malzahn, who is more oriented to using a running QB than someone like Smigiel is probably capable of doing. Smigiel re-opened his recruitment, and with their 2026 quarterback commit re-classifying to 2025 and signing with Texas A&M (Brady Hart), the Wolverines were back in the market for a quarterback.
There's a lot to like about Smigiel's quarterbacking skills, from his production (see above) and experience (1,161 passing attempts as a varsity starter so far) to the throws he puts on film. He's a tall quarterback with a nice over-the-top delivery that should prevent some of the batted balls we've seen from other Michigan quarterbacks in recent memory. He seems to know where he's going with the ball in a quarterback-friendly system, and he delivers the ball on time. There aren't a ton of off-schedule plays, and his command of the offense is apparent. I wouldn't say he has a cannon for an arm, but he throws well enough to take advantage of most parts of the field.
On the negative side, I don't necessarily love Smigiel's mechanics, and I think he holds the ball with his back elbow a little too high; some throwing coaches might think that locks his arm and prevents him from truly optimizing his velocity. His arm strength is solid, but there are some throws the perimeter of the field that I'm not sure he'll be able to make. He's going to be mostly a pocket quarterback and lacks explosive running ability.
Overall, a lot of different quarterbacks popped into my head when watching him, from Peyton Manning (stature) to Trevor Lawrence (command of the offense) to Steve Threet (running ability). I know that's a wide range of skills, and I'm certainly not saying he'll be any of the above players. He just reminds me of those guys on the hoof. I don't think Smigiel will be the #1 pick in the draft, and I think he's better than Threet; if he's willing to sit for a couple years behind Bryce Underwood, he could be a very good starter for Michigan. Here's the expected depth chart by class for 2026:
- Jadyn Davis (RS So.)
- Bryce Underwood (So.)
- Chase Herbstreit (RS Fr.)
- Brady Smigiel (Fr.)
Smigiel is the fifth player to commit to Michigan in the 2026 class. At #80 overall in the 247 Composite, he's between Shane Morris (#72 overall in 2013) and Matt Gutierrez (#96 overall in 2002) at the quarterback position. Michigan has never had a player from Newbury Park.
TTB Rating: 79
High floor, probably not the highest ceiling. Good backup for Underwood
ReplyDeleteGreat write up, I appreciate the effort you put into there. I’m curious if you ever go back and compare your grades for players vs how well or poor they worked out in order to adjust how you view the players.
ReplyDeleteFor instance I believe you gave both JJ McCarthy and Bryce Underwood and grade of 89. With JJ going 1st round, I think that is more reflective of a 90+ on your scale…..so does that change your grading of Underwood or even Smigiel?
I do go back and look at the grades I gave players. I actually revisit those grades in a way each year with the season countdown, because the grade is included with each write-up. McCarthy should have been graded higher in retrospect, and Underwood may get a grade revision this spring/summer as I release any updated TTB Ratings during the countdown. But keep in mind that Jim Harbaugh recruited/coached McCarthy, and Sherrone Moore is coaching Underwood. I trust Harbaugh's overall player development more than I trust Moore's.
DeleteYep the ability of the developers is as critical as the talent of the player.
DeleteMorris was given a TTB rating of 87 and perhaps with Harbaugh as his coach earlier things would have gone closer to that level. But with Hoke and Borges guys seemed to not improve much, or even get worse.
Moore has not yet earned much trust for developing QB talent, despite his experience as OC under Harbaugh. The 2024 debacle at QB stands out right now. The decision to elevate Kirk Campbell was a bad one and the entire management of the room was atrocious.
Given that, its curious that Underwood signed on with what seems like a high risk situation. Of course he got a lot of money to do it. Moreover, nothing prevents him from moving on after giving it a season. Since he was a Michigan fan growing up he can check a lot off his bucket list in the 2025 season. On his end he holds all the cards and the risk is low for the freshman. For Michigan... well I think the pressure is on Moore, Lindsey, and the rest of the staff to build a situation that elevates Underwood and not relive the failures of the Robinson/Gardner/Morris era.
I do want to say that I think Chip Lindsey is a quality OC and should be put in charge of the offense fully. And so Bryce Underwood's success/failure in 2025 should be more tied to Lindsey.
DeleteI think 2024 was more on a combination of Campbell/Moore. Moore gave Campbell the reins, and when he showed he was in over his head, it seems like Moore (and Casula) started to get some more input.
I can see how 2024 happened. If Weiss/Harbaugh/Moore had a good thing going prior and it was carried over by Moore/Harbaugh in 2024, I can see how Campbell might have piped in with an occasional good idea - and I do have some respect for Campbell's play design/play calling - and then Moore thinking he could give more weight to Campbell.
But it's a whole different ball game when Campbell has to design an entire offense. When you're not just in charge of trick plays or little tweaks, but you're in charge of base plays, how protections/adjustments are going to be made, etc., that's a different animal.
Lindsey is Moore's hire. Their assessments are inseparable.
DeleteLikewise with Campbell. Your assessment (which I happen to agree with) sounds like the Peter Principle in action, but it's on Moore to recognize that. He made a big mistake there. The best we can say on Moore's behalf is that it was a rushed decision (during a crazy offseason) and credit him for having moved on after the season decisively.
BUT. If Lindsey struggles to resolve the many offensive issues, after Campbell's failure, it's going to be on Moore. You don't get to keep making the same mistake in college football.
That's not really what I'm saying. Of course a head coach is responsible for everything. It's a blessing and a curse.
DeleteI'm saying Lindsey is a bona fide OC, unlike Campbell, who was just kinda dipping his toes into big-time college football for the first time. Last year it wasn't clear how much Moore was in charge of the offense, how much Casula was helping, how much Campbell was doing, etc.
This is Lindsey's show on offense now. If the offense works well, Lindsey deserves credit. If the offense doesn't work, Lindsey deserves blame. Naturally, the HC is tied to the OC, just like the AD is tied to the HC, etc.
Yep Lindsey is way more qualified than Campbell. But Greg Robinson was qualified too. They need to get better on offense or heads (multiple) will roll.
DeleteI'm not sure I agree with your assertion that Lindsey is going to be way more responsible than Campbell. He's more qualified yeah, but is he really walking into the season with way more to do than what Campbell was asked to do heading into 2024? I'm not yet sure if Moore or Casula will have lesser roles, if Newsome will have a bigger role, etc. The specific distribution of the roles and responsibilities are not usually stuff the program makes very public anyway (like we don't know how much to credit Harbaugh or Moore or Weiss or Warriner or Hart or other offensive staff over recent years because that stuff is not exactly public -- like NIL earnings).
It would be a HUGE surprise if Michigan brought in a former FBS head coach and Power 5 (Power 4) offensive coordinator and then put him on equal footing with a 28-year-old, second-year offensive line coach and a guy whose career peak (prior to now) was being an OC at Ferris State and UMass.
DeleteIf we're being sensible about it, we know who's calling the shots.
If we're not, who's to say that assistant linebackers coach Pernell McPhee isn't calling the defense?
Yep
Delete#exposes
Yep I have not heard that the job duties of the OC have changed. Has this been reported?
DeleteI don't think it would be a massive surprise if they did not change very much. Perhaps they will as you speculate. This information isn't made public though, like NIL, so perhaps speculation is inappropriate.
I don't think we if we know who specifically and to what degree is "calling the shots" when it was for example Fish/Drevno/Wheatley/Harbaugh in 2015 vs Campbell/Moore/Hart/Harbaugh in 2023.
I don't think we know if Moore and Newsome will have more or less on their plates in 2025 than they had in 2024 but with guys like Poggi and Castillo brought on perhaps there was a shuffle and some guys are going to do less and some guys are doing more. Again -- we don't know.
High confidence opinions with no evidence are always fun though, yep.
I prefer Yep but you can also call me by my former handle...
DeleteMr Agreeable.
:)
Lol, page 2
Delete#resolution
#selfown
Casula promoted to co-OC so perhaps less on Lindsey's plate than Campbell. Maybe they realize they put too much on Campbell not just because of HIS limitations but on the role itself.
DeleteCasula:
“Getting ready for any game, there’s a collaborative effort. I think sometimes when you think, in any organization, in any sport, offense, defense, special teams, of course there’s somebody that all funnels through. But I echoed this before — we always had a very team-oriented mindset, that it’s never one person’s success, one person’s failure, so we were all involved in the planning of the game and the thought process.”