Name: Blake Frazier
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 302 lbs.
High school: Austin (TX) Vandegrift
Position: Offensive tackle
Class: Redshirt sophomore
Jersey number: #77
Last year: I ranked Frazier #36 and said he would be a backup offensive tackle (LINK). He started eight games and played in all thirteen games.
TTB Rating: 89
Legacy offensive lineman Blake Frazier got his first taste of playing a big role in the Big House last fall. The son of former Michigan center Steve Frazier, Blake was a in a three-headed battle for the left tackle job against Evan Link and Andrew Babalola. Babalola hurt his knee in camp, and Link hurt his leg partway through the season, so the last man standing was Frazier. Frazier was already starting as the sixth lineman in jumbo packages, so it made sense for him to slide in as a starter at left tackle. But that was still a tall task for a young guy who came in with a ton of potential but lacking bulk. He showed good feet and awareness last season, but there were times where he flat-out got overpowered.
The hope for 2026 is that he's no longer getting overpowered after another off-season in the weight room. There has been a lot of talk about the work of new strength coach Doug Elisaia and guys increasing their lifts significantly. Frazier is still only 302 pounds, so he's a little bit light to expect elite play at this point. I would like to see him up around 310-315 pounds when all is said and done, but he's still just a third-year player. It sounds like Frazier will be the starting left tackle, with Link playing left guard and Andrew Babalola playing a backup or Rhino (extra lineman) role. The group has an excellent offensive line coach in Jim Harding, so if Frazier is indeed the choice at left tackle, that probably bodes well for Frazier's potential to finish out his career and possibly get to the NFL.
Prediction: Starting left tackle
fingers crossed frazier put in the work this offseason. he had a rough year start to finsih, as to be expected with most 2nd year OL. granted texas rolled out some talented defenders but he still got abused much of that game.
ReplyDeletefrazier appears to have many of the necessary traits to bounce back this fall. if the OL meets or exceeds the staffs expectations and helps support a much improved O, frazier will play a major role
I thought Frazier exceeded expectations, mostly because I was so concerned with his thin frame, especially lower body
ReplyDeleteThe bowl game was a showcase for Texas DEs, mostly at the expense of Frazier (Norton got pummeled worse). Hopefully he’s more ready for those quick twitch pass rushers
We are getting top level coaching on the OL now, our guy is supposed to be the best in the business vs "learning on the job" guy. I expect a top unit this year, on par with 2022 and better than 2023.
ReplyDeleteYeah, agree
DeleteI was skeptical of some OL in 2o23, but as a unit they were almost as good as the two years prior
For 2o26, I’m a little concerned with the Guard play, and will watch Frazier closely against OU. My hope is that the unit is better than its parts, and that’s coaching
LT is one of the most important positions on the field so Frazier is a top 10 player for me, for better or worse.
ReplyDeleteLike everyone else I'm expecting a leap. If he doesn't do it -- it's Babalola time or I guess Link time, but I think both are big dropoffs from what Frazier COULD BE in 2026. The sky doesn't fall if Frazier doesn't make that leap but if he does it's a game-changer for the Michigan O.
My top 15
Delete1. Underwood
2. Guarnera
3. Pierce
4. Daley
5. Etta
6. Hill
7. Snowden
8. Sprague
9. Frazier
10. Bracy
11. Link
12. Moore
13. Staehling
14. Buchanan
15. Marsh
Honorable Mention:
Z Marshall, J Marshall, Curtis, Bowles, Efobi
Surges into top 20 if an injury strikes above:
Carr, Moa, Earls, Hiter, Babalola, Palepale, Brandt, Hansen
solid list. only major change id make is inserting the kicker somewhere. kicking game even more consequential with a tough schedule vs handful of high end programs
Delete"only major change id make is inserting the kicker somewhere"
DeleteWith him, then long snapper and holder comes into the picture ... the kicker himself can't do a thing if the snap and hold aren't there. Such is the nature of the game, though: there's really not a position on the field that's truly in isolation; all have to work in concert for the overall team to be good.
I've been poking around the internet looking for statistical studies on the value of kickers within the context of the whole game. There's a lot of variables. From what I can gather, the metric the studies use is "field goal percentage above expected," and "expected" is an average based on distance and conditions. So a valuable kicker is one who exceeds what would, on average, be expected for that distance and conditions. By that metric, Justin Tucker, formerly of the Baltimore Ravens, was the best.
Looking back, Dominic Zvada would rank fairly high in 2024 and 2025, with an edge to his 2024 performance. James Turner's 2023 performance was good but not outstanding ... but he didn't need to be given the other parts of the team. So again, lots of variables, and lots of "it depends" qualifications.
Kicker is valuable but I struggle to bump anyone out of there and wonder (don't know) how much drop off there would be to whoever (if Butkowski got hit by a bus). I would put Zvada in the top 15 if he was back because of his value at 50 yard range and beyond but doesn't sound like Butkowski is that caliber of kicker.
DeleteI like the measures you are talking about -- but Butkowski strikes me as a little closer to 'expected' than Zvada.
Solid list but it's Michigan. Any top 15 must have at least one RB (even if you don't value them). It's very important for the team that Marshall stay healthy . Yes, Hiter is a great option but I would have Marshall about 10. And personally I would put Marsh higher because I think he will be important for Bryce's development and success.
ReplyDeleteNot only does Hiter seem like a good backup to Marshall, but Kuzdal also provides a high floor at the position. We already know Kuz can drop a 100 yard game on people. Honestly, I'd be more worried about an injury to almost any other starter after RB. And that's with unprecedented low depth beyond the top 3 options this year.
DeleteRelative to Marshall missing time due to health - think about any of the guys in my top 15 and how worried would you be (relative to Hiter/Kuzdal) handling the workload. This is pretty much my logic -- I'd be a lot more worried if one of those other starters went down. For example -- one of the OL start you're putting Babalola in there and he's essentially a freshman, so maybe giving up a key sack on a 3rd down that Norton isn't --- or changing up your whole playcalling because you gotta have the TE in to help block instead of out running routes. And on the interior it might be Norton in there and that's not going to be a disaster necessarily, but your rushing production might be more affected going from Link to Norton than giving 10 extra carries to Hiter and 10 more to Kuzdal (or maybe use Underwood more in the run game too). That's before considering the pass blocking ramifications.
I love watching our RBs -- they are crazy athletes and with the ball in hand they are the guys we focus in on -- but ultimately they are part-time players in a rotation, replaceable pieces, and dependent on the OL and scheme for most of their rushing production. I struggle to put them above somebody like a starting OL or DB who is going to be out there almost every snap.
As for Marsh -- I just think Buchanan might be objectively a better player. But I don't feel strongly on that. Would not surprise me if Marsh outplayed my ranking. Still, I think Buchanan not Marsh is likely to be the guy Bryce looks to on 3rd down conversion attempts. Kinda stepping into a Colston Loveland-like role. In short -- think Marsh might be a bigger play-maker but Buchanan might be a better receiver.
Agree Blue. The system matters. Beck is not only RunFirstRunOften, but he’s run mostly, with an Option tag thrown in … we need our two studs healthy all year
DeleteKuzdal is “just okay,” and even THAT is a stretch: his “breakout game” was against. Terp D that had ONE P4 win all season. They stunk
We need difference makers, not “okay”
tough to find a better 3rd string option than kuz anywhere on the roster
DeleteGoalpost moved
DeleteNah - the original point still stands. Not only does Michigan have a good starter, a very likely good backup, it EVEN has a 3rd stringer who is proven to be "okay" -- a guy who proved himself capable as a starter. No other position on the roster can boast depth like that. And depth influences the value of the individual.
DeleteOf course difference makers are needed -- but not only at RB. The OL, at QB, at WR, at TE, and all along the defense need difference makers too. There's 22 positions + special teams so not every starter can be in the top 15. Putting in a backup or even a starter who only plays part time is a tough relative to the starters who are out there for 75% or more of meaningful snaps. So yeah, replacing Marshall with Kuzdal would be notable and no one wants that to happen -- but replacing Berry (or whoever) with the 3rd guy down the depth chart behind him (Vincent?) is probably more notable.
That's the goalpost. Top 15 value. Top 15 impact if unavailable. Who you are matters, who replaces you matters, and what the impact to the team is matters.
“High floor” kuzdal has ONE 1ooyd game, and that was against a pathetic Terp squad. The rest were 8o, 5o, 3o, 2o. A long of 22. No TDs in four of the five games he played in. He didn’t even touch the ball until November
DeleteThat MIGHT be “high floor” or “okay” for a pass happy offense. But Harball, SMASH and Beck? He’s a no. A big no
We’ve seen Zack Zinter, Miles Hinton and other recent OL exit, but the unit was a strength; not much changed in scheme or result. But when your identity is running the rock, losing your elite RB (or RBs) comes at a cost. We had no offense against ohio and Texas last year, and our offense went full JJ back when Corum was injured
RB matters. And the more meaningful carries Kuzdal gets the worse our season goes
Kuzdzal showed almost zero ability to break any tackles last season. He has decent patience and darn good speed, but he's only going to get what the OL blocks for him. We keep talking about the OL having several starter-quality players (Frazier, Guarnera, Efobi, Babalola, Link, Sprague, Norton) and some other guys who are battling for playing time (Gach, Walbridge, etc.), so losing one or even two guys isn't going to break the OL.
DeleteA Caption Obvious statement.
DeletePlus, anyone who has ever watched a football game knows you’re not rotating OL in the middle of a series, let alone a game. But RBs come on & off the field , a need to keep them fresh for that next carry
Anyone who knows MICHIGAN football can multiply this several times over: you can rotate WR, because none are going to touch the ball more than RB1 (or RB2 in most cases). In Beck’s Offense, we’ll have a TE out there, but who that TE is will vary amongst five guys (counting the Slash FB), and won’t matter nearly as much as RB1 and RB2
*on Defense, it’s a different story because the lack of depth is scary
Kuzdal isn't the top backup he's a 3rd stringer. The top backup is Hiter.
DeleteWhen we talk about equivalent OL backups you gotta go down to the 3rd guy on the depth chart not the next man up (who is currently competing for a starting job) but the guys after that. OL isn't one position it is 5. Babalola isn't coming in if Guarnera misses time.
Because...say it with me...Kuzdal is a 3rd stringer. It would take 2 injuries to elevate Kuzdal to a starting feature role. While this did happen last year it's not all that likely to happen again. The equivalent thing happening at center means Guarnera getting hurt and then (lets say) Norton coming in and replacing him but also getting hurt, and then us putting in that sophomore from Utah. That dude might be passable, MAYBE, or he might be an absolute disaster. Contrast that with Kuzdal who we know can be more than passable. He's a reliable and proven vet. He might be unexceptional but he's not a disaster.
At LT the equivalent might be Walbridge, who was brought up above. It would be an unmitigated disaster to put a true freshman listed at 300 out at LT and ask him to start and play every snap against Oklahoma. Not gonna work -- not in September. I mean, maybe there's a 10% chance he's a future pro ready for the test and it's ONLY bad, but even most NFL players aren't ready as true freshman. So very likely a DISASTER. Kuzdal ain't that and we know it.
Kuzdal, who, again, is a 3rd stringer here, started 2 games and produced 100 and 80 yards on the ground on solid YPC. Michigan's offense was largely unaffected. He's a good player. When you talk about 3rd stringers you don't get much better than that.
RB rotate yes, and OL don't. Which is why, all else being equal, a starting OL is relatively more important than RB1. Also why, all else being equal, an RB2 is generally more important than an OG2. But the snap thing is why it is very hard to put an RB1 in the top 10 IMO, even if you run the ball a lot. Not only do they have less impact on a down by down basis -- they play less.
PS
All of them, Marshall too, are dependent on good blocking from the OL to be successful. Maybe Kuzdal more than a better tackle-breaker but most yards are not YAC. Kuzdal had plenty of YAC anyway because while I agree he doesn't break free of many tackles he runs hard and fast so he consistently "falls forward" more than some.
More important than his tackle breaking prowess -- Kuzdal is a pretty complete back who can block and catch. He's fully capable of taking on the full RB1 load. While Michigan won't be as good if this happens -- they won't be dramatically affected. We've already seen that -- against Maryland, subbing in for the come-from-behind win against NW, and against Texas.
Michigan's run game will go as far as their OL (and QB) take them -- Kuzdal is a bit like Edwards in that he is more dependent on his OL relative to a strong tackle breaker like Deveon Smith or Kalel Mullings, but this OL should be pretty damn good at run blocking and so the fit with Kuzdal should be pretty good (like it was for Edwards in 22).
PPS
I don't think the TE matters all that much in this offense either. The downfield elements that helped make TE critical in a Harbaugh 2-TE offense (which often used TEs as WRs) seem like they will largely be covered by Buchanan. And the extra blockers may well be 6th OL (Rhino) rather than a TE. Bottomline -- I would expect far fewer TE snaps and TE receptions in '26 than '23. This is why I didn't put a TE in my top 15 ranking and frankly have some regret about putting Zach Marshall even in the honorable mention category, whereas I DO think Jordan Marshall belongs.
In terms of capability -- Kuzdal is OL equivalent to Norton. He's lacking in elite physical traits, a bit undersized, not quite physical enough for B1G excellence. The difference between RB and OL -- Kuzdal is 3rd string while Norton is fighting for a starting spot (a battle which may last into the season) and the probable top backup at 3 different positions (and thus likely to be a starter at some point this year). Top backup at 3 spots vs 3rd string at one spot.
DeleteRB is far better off than OL...and OL is in good shape (if you have faith in Babalola being ready / every healthy).
" when your identity is running the rock, losing your elite RB (or RBs) comes at a cost."
ReplyDeleteI'll respond in the Jordan Marshall post because it looks like he's going to get ranked way higher than I would rank him. I think Hiter is going to be better with the ball in his hands -- and while I worry about ball security and blocking and route running with Hiter -- I think there would not be much drop off in the run game going from Marshall to Hiter. [And yes it's a rotation but you can go from 60/40 Marshall Hiter to 80/20 Hiter Kuzdal and not worry too much about Kuzdal's limitations]
-IYKYK
Hahaha, the essay was followed by a name change and two more posts
ReplyDeleteNot even Lank believes Lank. Still!
Evergreen jel3 post -- always the pigeon playing chess
DeleteHaha, got him on page 2 before the season even starts
DeleteAnother L for Lank
back to imagining dubs and losses
Deletemaybe i should bring out the hashtags for old time sake
or maybe i"ll just "change my name" again
or both
#pLaYmaKeRs
#rec center
#betme
#HIU
Mmmm sprite
-KNAL
Having you obsessed is so nice, I got you twice
Delete#outsmarted
#page2
#resolution
shoot I forgot a classic
ReplyDelete#rentfree
-IYKYK