RUSH OFFENSE vs. WMU RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan was #2 in the Big Ten in 2025 with 210 yards/game on the ground and averaged the highest yards per carry (5.44) of any team in the conference, which might be surprising to some, considering the ho-hum season and general feeling about Michigan football last season. They finished with 33 rushing touchdowns (#3 in the conference) but played in only thirteen games, while the top two teams - Indiana and Oregon - played sixteen and fifteen games, respectively. The bad thing is that Michigan swapped out Justice Haynes (who transferred to Georgia Tech) for freshman Savion Hiter. Hiter is undoubtedly talented, but probably not quite as advanced as Haynes was in 2025. Meanwhile, Utah was #2 in the country in rushing (266 yards/game) and #1 in yards per carry (6.02), and Michigan imported Utah's offense with offensive coordinator Jason Beck and offensive line coach Jim Harding. The offensive line is mostly new in 2026; right tackle Andrew Sprague is the only full-time starter returning in the same spot, with part-time starters Blake Frazier (LT), Evan Link (LG), Jake Guarnera (C), Nate Efobi (RG), and Brady Norton (RG) also playing quite a bit. Beck stated earlier this week that there will be a rotation at guard, presumably between Link, Efobi, and Norton, until they decide on a winner. Western Michigan went 10-4 last season and finished #2 in the MAC in yards allowed on the ground (126 yards/game). Their top three tacklers from last season are gone, but they return fifth year senior CB Jarvarius Sims (6'0", 188 lbs.) and redshirt junior S Micah Davis (6'1", 200), who were #4 and #5 in tackles last season. Davis was a walk-on at Michigan from 2022-2023 before transferring to WMU and will be starting once again in 2026. The entire front four consists of transfers from FCS Long Island, JUCO Kilgore College, Ohio State, and Ball State, and none of them is taller than 6'1". The starting linebackers are fifth year seniors Domanick Moon (6'2", 235) and Dillon Moore (6'2", 223), who were both backups last season and had 23 and 19 tackles, respectively. The Broncos gave up 4.1 and 4.4 yards per carry last season to Michigan State and Illinois, and Michigan is a better running team than either. I expect the Wolverines to be able to control the game on the ground.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. WMU PASS DEFENSE
Michigan was #14 in the conference in passing offense (187 yards/game) last year with limited wide receivers and a freshman quarterback. Bryce Underwood averaged a respectable 7.2 yards/attempt, but he had just 11 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, which was not a significant upgrade over Davis Warren in 2024 (7 touchdowns, 9 interceptions). The receiving corps has been upgraded to include a sophomore Andrew Marsh (45 catches, 651 yards, 4 TD), sophomore Utah transfer J.J. Buchanan (27 catches, 426 yards, 6 TD), and #3 receiver Channing Goodwin (12 catches, 148 yards). Last year's pass catching crew included WR Semaj Morgan (now at UCLA), who dropped a lot of balls; WR Donaven McCulley (graduated), who never seemed to be on the same page as Underwood; and TE Marlin Klein (now with the Houston Texans), who was injured for a good chunk of the year. The offensive line should be better in pass protection with Harding in charge and another year under the belts of the offensive linemen. Western Michigan defensive end Scoop Gardner, Jr. (6'1", 255) had 14.5 tackles for loss and 7 sacks last year at Long Island, but this is a step up in competition and he's undersized. We have seen Michigan pass rushers be successful despite being undersized, but he probably didn't see many 6'6" or 6'8", 300+ pound offensive tackles with good feet at LIU, so that will be an interesting battle to watch. On the back end, WMU is starting 5'11", 165 lb. Joey Pope at safety next to Micah Davis; Pope is also undersized but had 44 tackles and 3 interceptions for the Broncos last year. The guy to watch might be fifth year senior Jervarius Sims (6'0", 188), who had 64 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and 1 sack last year while moving around some in the secondary. Michigan will probably try to establish the run early, but there are usually some attempted big shots against MAC secondaries.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. WMU RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan's rush defense was solid last year (112 yards allowed/game), good enough for #6 in the conference under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. But Martindale was replaced this off-season by BYU defensive coordinator Jay Hill, who promises that this defense will look like the 2023 Michigan defense. It seems like Michigan fans have latched onto that idea pretty quickly, but then-defensive coordinator Jesse Minter is now an NFL head coach and Hill's BYU defense was just so-so in 2025 (#35 in yards allowed per play). I'm in wait-and-see mode when it comes to the defense, because I'm not sure Michigan has the horses to be a high-quality defense in 2026 with all-new linebackers and a questionable interior. Meanwhile, WMU returns 6'1", 210 lb. redshirt junior QB Broc Lowry (203 carries, 963 yards, 14 rushing TDs) and fifth year senior running back Jalen Buckley (5'11", 210), who had 1,003 yards and 9 touchdowns on 179 attempts. The offensive line has three fifth year seniors and two redshirt sophomores, none of whom is particularly physically imposing except for left tackle Brandon Smith (6'4", 315). Smith is also the only newcomer, so the players have worked together for a while. Offensive coordinator Walt Bell is in his third season in Kalamazoo, and he commanded a pretty potent offense in 2025. Bell is well known to Michigan fans after spending time at Maryland and Indiana in the past, and his offenses have been kind of fun to watch, even though Michigan's physical superiority and coaching have got the best of him. I don't think Michigan will clobber WMU up front like they would have in years past, and I expect Lowry and Buckley to have a few really annoying, explosive plays as they expose some new linebackers with motions and formations.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. WMU PASS OFFENSE
Michigan was #12 in the Big Ten last year in pass defense (211 yards allowed/game) and #7 in the conference in passer rating allowed. The good news is that the secondary should be better with several players returning (Rod Moore if healthy, Zeke Berry, Jyaire Hill) and a couple touted transfers (Memphis safety Chris Bracy and Utah cornerback Smith Snowden). The defensive coaches are also high on Michigan's edge rushers, including Utah transfer John Henry Daley and holdovers Dom Nichols and Nate Marshall. The interior guys probably won't get after the passer much, but they didn't get much pass rush from the tackles in 2025, either. I expect Michigan to get more turnovers and sacks in 2026, even if the run defense suffers a little bit. Meanwhile, WMU was #12 in the MAC last year in passing yards (139 yards/game) and #7 in passing efficiency, despite the success of the run. Lowry had 1,803 passing yards, 9 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions on 6.9 yards/attempt and 63.4% completions. Against Big Ten opponents Michigan State and Illinois, he was 15/26 for 169 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He doesn't have much arm strength and only threw for 200+ yards twice in fourteen games. Wide receivers Baylin Brooks (6'0", 207) and Aveion Chenault (6'0", 177) are the top two returning receivers, and they combined for 50 catches, 649 yards, and 2 touchdowns last season. All the noteworthy tight ends were seniors last year, so it's an all new group in 2026. Overall, I have a feeling that Daley, Nichols, Hill, Zeke Berry, and the rest of the defensive crew will smother WMU, with the Broncos best chance to target the inexperienced linebackers.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Western Michigan players who used to play for Michigan include: RB Cole Cabana (4th string), S Micah Davis (starter), OG Ben Roebuck (2nd string)
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED...
- Michigan beat WMU by a score of 47-14 in 2021
- QB Cade McNamara completed 9/11 passes for 136 yards and 2 TD
- QB J.J. McCarthy threw his first TD pass, a 69-yarder from the opposite hash to Daylen Baldwin
- RB Blake Corum ran 14 times for 111 yards and 1 touchdown
- WR A.J. Henning had a 74-yard rushing touchdown
- WR Ronnie Bell caught a 76-yard touchdown and returned 1 punt for 31 yards before tearing his ACL
PREDICTION
- Michigan 44, WMU 6
Lmao, cole cabana at 4th string
ReplyDeleteI’ve got 41-1o, empty the bench
Not the most impressive day for rushing offenses. Bama, Oregon, Miami, Indiana … something to ponder or week one stuff?
ReplyDeleteDefense was fine, despite getting stuck on the field
ReplyDeletePierce was a beast on several plays. Etta was good. Nichols was beast, even against the LT who left JHD looking just okay (I don’t buy that he’s near 1oo%). LBs were meh, though Bowles did make a couple nice plays. Secondary was mostly untested; I don’t think Berry is very good at tackling
Offense is a mess. Marshall looked like he was looking for the big run all night. OL wasn’t any good. Beigel played far too much (ineffectively), including on the game winning drive when only a Hail Mary could win it
Bryce. Sigh. Awful. Joe Milton, JOK and Russell Bellamy all had that same deer in the headlights look. Lost and/or scared. Not sure that ever goes away. Can/should he be benched? For whom? Nah, I say run him 15x a game; he’s not ready to lead a team as a passer
JJ is the real deal
A win is a win. Just need to temper expectations and accept any kind of Dub we can get this year
GO BLUE
In my mind, the key is next week's game, and in particular if they seem prepared to execute and play. We can attribute yesterday to "rust," or "first game learning," or whatever. But if we see the same things into week two, then alarm bells should go off. Whittingham, in his post-game presser, said it's "on him to do a better job of coaching." Well, are those just words, or is there more behind them?
DeleteJason Beck should be a chastened, humble man this week. My sense is he thought some of this would be easy to do against WMU. "Pride goeth before destruction," as the Proverb says.
I hope they’re just underestimating Western and looking ahead to OU. That would explain Beck and the OL, RBs and even Marsh fumble
DeleteBut Bryce was worse than last year. My solution is to run him, but even then, dude can’t read the option … that’s HS stuff. 35 PFF; 5 TO worthy plays. He’s a liability, and we’re out of options
Before the game, my position on the QB was there is no way you replace him unless he looks like the love child of Nick Sheridan and John OKorn.
ReplyDeleteReplace the QB.
Replace him with whom? The 1ooLB TRFr with zero game experience? Or the G6 guy who has started a bunch of games, but sucked even at that level?
DeleteWe’re stuck with Bryce. It’s on the staff to figure out how to get something out of him
It is not a bench press contest. Did you see Tom Brady's NFL draft picture? 100 bucks he looks better than that.
DeleteOf course it’s not a bench press competition. But Jason Beck runs his QB; Kyle Whittingham runs his QB
DeleteTom Brady was never in such an offense, so being skinny and taking the number of hits a Dual Threat College QB takes was never a concerning
For young Carr, it would be
Carr is pretty capable of running the ball. To me he looks like a more natural runner than Bryce. He may not be as fast IDK, but he looks like he knows what he is doing as a runner and he looks comfortable doing it.
DeleteIf the only reservation here is Carr getting hurt? I mean...he's the backup QB. If he gets hurt he gets hurt. I don't get worrying about that preemptively as a rationale for anything.
The bigger worry is the very likely reality that Carr, as a freshman, is probably even worse than reading defenses than Underwood - who at least has a season of CFB under his belt and has been the unquestioned QB1 throughout spring and fall camps.
I get it that Bryce didn't play well but I do not think he is the biggest issue on offense. The one thing we know for certain is that Jordan Marshall can gain plenty of yards. The OL is more less the same group as last year. They should be older and better. We cannot run the ball yesterday. I feel like this coaching staff has spent the whole spring/summer practice on developing Bryce and neglecting the run game.
ReplyDeleteI get that the new coaching staff wants to implement their own version of the offense but the initial returns are just not good. I feel that if we want a winning season, it is time to change up the playbook, get back to the run run run offense we are accustomed to. Introduce the new offense bit by bit.
If Marshall had 26 carries for 105 yards would we be disappointed? That's what we had as a team. Given the level of competition that's not great but usually north of 4 ypc (and the arbitrary 100 yard mark by one guy) does not bear the brunt of fan anger. Plus we had a 20 yard run from Kuzdal removed by a borderline holding call on Bryce that might have changed the narrative to some degree.
DeleteEven without that, team had 4.2 YPC, slightly better than 4.1 YPC we had in beating OSU in 2024 and way better than we had against Alabama 2.3 YPC (led by Marshalls 23 carries for 100 yards). I know -- WMU is not OSU or Bama, I get it. But it wasn't THAT bad statistically speaking, and in reality. It just wasn't GOOD -- and by Michigan standards that feels very bad.
The run game did not look good enough for the level of competition. Even if WMU is better than several big 10 teams we will face this year, that first game was simply not good enough from the OL. But that's really missing the bigger picture because the running game almost wasn't given the opportunity. They just didn't carry the ball enough and just as importantly they didn't carry the ball enough when they needed to carry the ball. Time and time again on 3rd and short or 3rd and medium Michigan chose to pass with Bryce.
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IYKYK
No it wasn’t good. That’s the point
DeleteAs for Jordan Marshall, he did not rush for 1ooyds. We don’t need to speculate because the game has been played. He wasn’t good either
Too many OL got blown back, and all struggled to push the (smaller) WMU defenders
That’s not good. You know it, but argue against it? Not surprising
ME: " It just wasn't GOOD -- and by Michigan standards that feels very bad."
DeleteAlso ME: "The run game did not look good enough for the level of competition"
JE: "That’s not good. You know it, but argue against it? Not surprising"
Looks who is seeking out to invent an argument where there isn't one.
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The substance of the argument --for anyone who isn't keep up or can't -- is that FT made a statement about "the biggest issue on offense" which I diagnose as not the run game (which wasn't good, as I said), but rather -- Bryce and how the coaches were using him.
In a way I can agree that it isn't Bryce per se, because Bryce might just be what he is. So if there's one BIGGEST PROBLEM it's the coaches figuring out what to do with a flawed offense with some major liabilities which are principally in the passing game (given that was atrocious compared to the run game which was merely not good).
To provide some stats to it -- Michigan had successful plays on 57% of their run plays and just 42% of their pass plays. On standard downs they were successful 59% of the time while it was 21% on passing downs. This is not great rushing against a WMU caliber opponent but it is absolutely embarrassing from a passing perspective -- especially considering this includes the hail mary and the first drive.
The biggest problem was the pass game was not doing what it was being asked to do, or even close. The run game was disappointing too, but the scale was very different.
So, my message to the coaches is not complicated -- FIX THIS. DO SOMETHING DIFFERENT.
Let's hope their response is more like 2024 USC/OSU/Alabama and less like 2024 Illinois/Washington/Texas (i.e., understand what your people can do well and what you can't do almost at all. adjust play calling accordingly vs double down to spit even harder into the wind). In other words don't ask a guy to do things he is very not good at doing -- and in Bryce's case that appears to be plays where he is asked to read a defense and find an open guy and then throw to him while he is still open. Don't go into Oklahoma expecting to do this when we've seen repeatedly it doesn't happen with any degree of consistency and will lead to turnovers.
-IYKYK
If they spent the offseason developing Bryce instead of the run game... Well a) I'm not sure how this even happens but b) they absolutely failed.
ReplyDeleteBryce looks no better than last year. Other than the first and last drive Michigan mostly just had Bryce try to be a pocket passer sitting back and reading coverage to find open guys and he just isn't that. It was mistake after mistake from Bryce and the running game could never get in a rhythm because they were just going 3 and out over and over watching Bryce fail to move the sticks.
It's all about Bryce. It's always been all about Bryce. To think that we are going to rely so hard on the running game (like we did with Warren/Orji in '24) is a massive disappointment for a player who is SUPPOSED to get better as a sophomore. But that's where we are probably.
Bryce still COULD be Dante Moore, he's just several years away from being there. 19 year old Dante Moore was not good and it seems 19 year old Bryce Underwood is also not very good.
Regardless of Bryce my question is if it is a defensible position in 2026 to have an underclassmen QB starter as your only option. This Colorado State kid is not a viable option but right now you have to ask if Bryce is either. I keep comparing to 2024 when the new coaching staff made a fatal mistake in not bringing in somebody like Jake Rudock (an unexceptional QB with middling arm strength, but one who could lean on experience to run the offense and usually (first game excepted) avoid mistakes.)
Bryce does flash ability to be really good (see first drive) but, again -- just like 2024, you can't run your offense like you have JJ McCarthy or even Jake Rudock level passing ability back there when you absolutely do not.
Ultimately -- and here is where I get to my point finally -- it's on the coaches to make lemonade. Bryce is what he is it seems - and you need to coach around those limitations. I won't pretend to know the answers but I can at least formulate some ideas. When your QB doesn't have IT -- you gotta do something else. Especially when your QB has multiple things he does really well that aren't IT. As a coaching staff you have to adapt.
At his moment in time I would advocate for looking back at the 2011 tape and seeing a gameplan where you mixed in a lot QB runs with taking shots deep downfield to a guy who can win you some jump balls (and where an INT is not much different than a punt). Similar ideas were put out there last year about McCully winning deep balls downfield, but Buchanan looks like a vastly superior player in every respect.)
You gotta figure out what you are doing with your personnel (are Beigel and Hoffman really in your 'best 11'?) and you gotta figure out what you are doing with scheme (stop asking Bryce to convert gettable 3rd downs through the air). Repeat whatever it was the worked on the first scripted drive or take more shots downfield to utilize Buchanan + Bryce's arm + or commit to running on 3rd and short. I dunno but as Coach Whitt said -- there's a lot to improve upon.
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IYKYK
Lmao “best 11”
DeleteWe had that discussion here a month ago … but lanky wanted to get into semantics
That was the intended reference. If you remember the convo it was about how Michigan had 2 good RB and bunch of talented WR and they should play their "best 11" to maximize the talent. I argued it wasn't that simple. Coaches need to run their offense -- not proceed with a fantasy of playing 11 WRs if your best 11 players happened to be WRs.
DeleteAnd indeed, Michigan played Biegel at RHINO half the time. Clearly NOT one of their "best 11".
But as Coach Whitt said -- there was a logic to it. You can run better and protect better (in theory). That helps put your most important players in a better position to succeed and potentially limits the exposure of their weaknesses. Especiallly if your best TE is a walk-on H-back, putting in a 6th OL does make some sense. Again, in theory.
What doesn't make sense is putting your (as mgoblog put it) 8th best OL in as your 6th OL. Call it semantics but Michigan didn't put their "best 6" OL on the field, they let an open competition continue while rotating through OGs, while a converted DL tried to play OL.
It is reminiscent of some transparently dubious decisions made early in 2024 that seemed to be a red flag for that coaching regime (e.g., Link in the starting lineup at OT).
@ Anonymous 1:29 p.m.
DeleteI don't understand the Link thing about him being in the starting lineup. They determined he was one of the best five starting linemen, so they put him in there. The alternative option may have been worse for all we know.
Schematically, using a sixth lineman may help you protect better...but teams also know Beigel won't be running any/many passing routes, so now if you keep the back in, you only have three receivers running routes. Just rush four and drop seven guys to cover three. It's too simplified.
Beigel isn't a good football player right now. It's not really a knock on him. He was a developmental project when he came to Michigan, and now he's playing tight end. Maybe he's valuable in some aspects, but that's not a guy who should be playing 50% of Michigan's snaps.
You need five linemen (Link in 2024) among your best 11. You don't need six.
2024:
DeleteI am asserting that the coaching staff made the wrong call in starting Link. I think that coaching staff misidentified that Link was one of their 5 best. While I've argued to trust the coaches before I think THAT coaching staff made a mistake in sending Gentry and Persi to the bench in favor of putting Link in. Link wasn't ready, he was at the wrong position, and 2 years later he still isn't a standout, even as a senior. Gentry and Persi looked like solid players before that and they look like solid players since. Link is OK now, and probably learned from his struggles in 2024 but those struggles were substantial.
But yes, hypothetically it could have been worse. I just very much doubt it. Link stunk in '24 and his pass pro especially was a significant contributor to the pass game debacle.
2026:
If we are talking about removing the TE spot altogether - in favor of going 4-wide, I am not sure we have the right OC to achieve it.
Assuming you have a decent one, I would rather use a 2-way TE than a 6th OL but this part of what Beck likes to do. He's had success with it. And Harbaugh/Moore did it regularly as well. Beck just leans into it harder than anyone else.
I agree with you on Biegel but I think the issue is more Biegel than Rhino. (i.e., the player chosen to run the scheme vs the scheme itself)
-IYKYK
ReplyDeleteAs for the defense. They did fine against WMU but it's WMU. Staehling and Bowles look like solid LB options but they need to get Taylor out of heavy rotation -- he isn't ready. And for God sakes stop hitting people out of bounds -- they got only 1 late hit flag but there could have been about 5 more on borderline hits out of bounds. That's another piece that I will look for the coaches to clean up because it's just sloppy and undisciplined.
-IYKYK