Mailbag: 2011 RB and DT Recruiting

Jacksonville running back Andrew Buie

Out of the RB's we have already offered in 2011, who do you think has the most potential in our offense? How many DT's will we sign and which DT has shown a lot of interest in Michigan.
Sincerely,
Anonymous from Maldives

Unlike certain blogs out there, I won't make up mailbag questions. I'll use the mailbag posts to answer questions posed to me in e-mail. I'll also place some questions here that are asked in comments sections that might interest a broad range of people.

However, I will make up locations for those e-mailers.

Michigan has offered six superbacks so far: Demetrius Hart, Demetrius Williams, Allan Wasonga, Andrew Buie, Jarrell Oliver, and Justice Hayes. In my opinion, the one who projects best to Michigan's offense is Andrew Buie. Buie is from Trinity Christian Academy in Jacksonville, FL, the same high school that 2010 recruit Rashad Knight attended. The competition at TCA is questionable, but Buie's 5'9", 188 lbs. and has very good speed and acceleration. He also has good vision and gets upfield rather than dancing, which is necessary for a good read option runner.

As far as defensive tackles go, I think Michigan will take two in the class of 2011 - one nose tackle and one defensive tackle. Ryan Van Bergen will likely move to defensive end, so current tackles with eligibility remaining after 2010 will be Mike Martin, William Campbell, Richard Ash, and Terry Talbott. By the time 2011 recruits get on campus, Martin will be a senior and Campbell will be a junior, so it's imperative that Michigan gets some more depth on the interior defensive line. Unfortunately, none of the four defensive tackles Michigan has offered seem likely to be Wolverines. Desmond Jackson already committed to Texas, and Timmy Jernigan is considered a lock to attend Florida. That leaves Vincent Croce (Olney, MD) and Kevin Williams (Holland, OH). Croce plans to visit for Michigan's next Junior Day on February 20, but I'm not sold on Rodriguez's ability to recruit the Atlantic region. Williams seems the most likely and also plans to visit on February 20, but I have a feeling that Williams will head south.

Scouting Report: Braxton Miller, QB - Huber Heights, OH

Height: 6'2"
Weight: 185 lbs.
Position: Quarterback
School: Wayne High School in Huber Heights, OH
40 Yard Dash: 4.47 (reported)
Vertical: 32"

Notes: Holds offers from Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and West Virginia (among others) . . . His varsity stats (9th, 10th, and 11th grades) to this point: 15 games, 259 rushing attempts, 1,004 rushing yards, 29 touchdowns, 240/432 passing, 2781 passing yards, 23 touchdowns . . . Teammate of 2010 Michigan commitments Terrence and Terry Talbott . . . Wears jersey #5 . . . Widely considered to be Ohio State lock

Strengths: Great speed . . . Strong runner . . . Drives legs through contact . . . Will not be brought down by arm tackles . . . Ability to change directions quickly . . . Stays low in and out of cuts . . . Not susceptible to knockout blows . . . Sudden twitch athlete . . . Not afraid of contact, whether running or blocking . . . Good throwing mechanics from the pocket . . . Steps into throws . . . Keeps a good knee bend throughout throwing motion . . . Good arm strength for short to intermediate passing game

Weaknesses: Trusts athleticism too much . . . Poor mechanics when scrambling to left . . . Much better athlete moving to right and planting with right foot . . . Arm strength lacking for downfield passing game . . . Carries ball loosely when scrambling in backfield

Projection: Miller has all-conference potential in a BCS league as an upperclassman

Reminds me of: Tyrod Taylor with a weaker arm

Image via maxpreps.com

2011 Offer Board Update

Richmond, VA linebacker Curtis Grant

Eleven updates have been made to the 2011 Offer Board, including Hermitage High School's Curtis Grant, a 6'3", 222 lb. linebacker who holds offers from Alabama, Florida, and Virginia Tech, among others.

Statistical Analysis of 2010 Recruiting: Part IV

There's not much to analyze with this information, but it's still interesting to see. I created a breakdown of the teams and, thus, the conferences that Michigan recruits chose instead of the Wolverines.

With a significant number of offers going to kids in Florida, Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina, it's really no surprise that the Wolverines' biggest opponent is the Southeastern Conference. Forty-six of the 162 Michigan offerees who committed elsewhere ended up in the SEC, 13 of whom picked the Florida Gators.

Michigan picked up 27 commitments in the class of 2010 . . . and lost 27 recruits to other Big Ten schools. Despite the 30 offers to kids in Ohio, Michigan lost eight kids to Penn State and only seven to Ohio State. Michigan State got five.

The biggest surprise to me on the list was the #3 conference on the graph, the Atlantic Coast Conference. ACC teams picked off 26 Michigan offerees, just one less than the rest of the Big Ten. I never really thought Michigan went head-to-head against the ACC very much, but with Rich Rodriguez putting such an emphasis on recruiting the state of Florida, I guess I shouldn't have been surprised. Florida State and Miami combined to take 14 kids.

The rest of the list fills out about like I expected. West Coast recruits tend to stay out west. I can't understand why a kid from sunny southern California wouldn't want to, I don't know, see snow for the first time or live on a peninsula. Not just any peninsula, either, but a lower peninsula. But whatever.

Michigan does share some recruiting ground with the Big East, such as Pennsylvania and Maryland. Luckily, the Big East's hitches are tied to teams like Dantonio's estranged stepchild Cincinnati and . . . uhhh . . . Rutgers. Pitt ended up being the biggest threat for Michigan recruits, picking up five commitments. Pitt has pulled in a few guys in the past couple years who could be helping Michigan right now, like Cam Saddler and Shayne Hale, but generally Pitt doesn't recruit on the same level as the Wolverines.

The Big 12 is next on the list, and then Independents. I tried to be all-inclusive with "Independents," but really what that means is Notre Dame. Don't worry, Michigan didn't lose any recruits to Army. Then comes the the Mountain West Conference (Lucky Radley to Utah, Tony Drake to Colorado State), the Mid-American Conference (Cassius McDowell to Toledo, Travis Williams to Miami-OH), and Conference USA (Brandon Gainer to Central Florida); none of whom had a committable Michigan offer by the end of the cycle. No one chose a WAC school over Michigan, presumably because they didn't want to play on blue turf. I can't say that I blame them.

2011 Offer Board Relocated; Bio Added

If you're a frequent or semi-frequent visitor, you may have noticed I've been posting more this week. That's because these ridiculous snowstorms have confined me to my quarters for the entire week so far. The current total of snow on the ground is 40". I feel like this:

Anyway, the 2011 Offer Board has found a permanent home as a tab at the top of the page. It was unwieldy as a blog post because I kept having to update the date and time. Plus it's handy now that you don't have to search for it.

I've also added a page with a short biography and contact information. I would appreciate any questions, tips, or suggestions for post ideas. The e-mail address is touchthebanner@gmail.com.

Statistical Analysis of 2010 Recruiting: Part III

As I was keeping track of Michigan's recruiting efforts throughout the 2010 cycle, I began to wonder where Michigan has the most success in recruiting. The obvious answers would be "in state" and "near home" and those answers held true, to no one's surprise.

You can see in the above chart (click to enlarge) that Michigan got the best bang for its buck in contiguous states like Wisconsin and Ohio. Pennsylvania is #5 on the list.

Sitting there at #4, though, is Louisiana. Michigan got two of the six prospects who were offered, slot receiver Drew Dileo and safety Carvin Johnson. The other four were WR Trovon Reed (Auburn), QB Munchie Legaux (Cincinnati), DE Jordan Allen (LSU), and CB Ronnie Vinson (LSU). Of those four, only Legaux didn't have an LSU offer. As I said in yesterday's post, kids in the deep south tend to stay in the deep south if a decent local program offers. Reed spurned LSU for a school in neighboring Alabama, but Allen and Vinson jumped at the opportunity to play in the Bayou.

Moving on to Florida, that percentage might be a bit alarming. The Wolverines extended more offers to Florida than any other individual state by far - 46 offers in all, beating Ohio by 16 - but Michigan's success rate in the Sunshine State was just below 7%. With all three commitments from Florida being 4-stars (Demar Dorsey, Marvin Robinson, Richard Ash), the kids Michigan has stolen have been elite talents. But this is something to watch in the coming years. If Rich Rodriguez continues to offer a high volume of kids from Florida, hopefully the commitments he gets remain elite players. I would hate to see the coaching staff spend such significant time and effort on Florida only to get middling recruits from the state. That being said, the coaches have done a good job there over the past couple years. They've established a pipeline from Pahokee (Martavious Odoms, Brandin Hawthorne, Vincent Smith, Richard Ash) and could be in the process of building a pipeline from Dr. Phillips High School in Orlando (Ricardo Miller transferred from Dr. Phillips to Ann Arbor Pioneer after committing, and 2011 prospects Demetrius Hart and Hasean Clinton-Dix have both been offered).

Rodriguez knows what side his bread is buttered on. He'll continue to get a high volume of recruits from Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and he'll try to pluck a few elite talents out of Florida. Those efforts will be complemented by an occasional commitment from various other states.

Former Michigan Athlete of the Week: Jonathan Goodwin

New Orleans Saints center Jonathan Goodwin

On Sunday night, Goodwin helped the Saints beat the Indianapolis Colts in the Super Bowl, 31-17. Wide receiver Adrian Arrington was on the Saints practice squad and former Michigan offensive coordinator Terry Malone is the Saints tight ends coach. I feel sorry for Malone, though, because that means he has to work with Jeremy Shockey every day.

Honorable mention: Former Wolverine running back Tyrone Wheatley had been the running backs coach at Eastern Michigan this past season, but he's headed to Syracuse to take the same position there. This is a step up from a bad Mid-American Conference team to a bad Big East team.