2011 Countdown: #28 Matt Wile

Matt Wile

Name: Matt Wile
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 210 lbs.
High school: Francis Parker High School in San Diego, CA
Position: Kicker
Class: Freshman
Jersey number: #45
Last year: Wile was a high school senior (commitment profile)

Wile was an Army All-American Bowl participant in January, which might be good (Will Hagerup) or bad (Brendan Gibbons).  He hit 10/13 field goals as a senior with a long of 49 and sent 91/101 kickoffs into the endzone for touchbacks.  He hit 9/12 field goals as a junior with a long of 48, so he's been pretty consistent the past two seasons.

As we all know, Michigan's combination of Seth Broekhuizen and Gibbons was atrocious in 2010.  Those two combined for 4/14 on field goals.  Since college kickers can't use blocks, Wile has been practicing kicking off the ground ever since his senior season ended.  If he can make the adjustment well, Wile might be a huge upgrade on special teams and give the team a better chance to win close games.  He might be the starting placekicker right off the bat, but he'll have to battle Will Hagerup for kickoff duties.  I admittedly know very little about kicking, but Wile sits this high on the list (and might be underrated) because of how much of a train wreck this team will be if its offense takes a step back and the kicker still can't get the ball through the uprights.  Cross your fingers.

Prediction: Starting placekicker; backup kickoff specialist

Chris Wormley, Wolverine

Ohio defensive end Chris Wormley committed to Michigan on Sunday

Toledo, OH, defensive end Chris Wormley committed to Michigan on Sunday after the "BBQ at the Big House."  He chose the Wolverines over offers from Cincinnati, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Toledo.

Wormley is 6'4"-ish and 250-ish pounds, depending on the recruiting site.  Speaking of recruiting sites, his ratings vary somewhat wildly from place to place:

ESPN: 4-star, #16 DE
Rivals: 3-star, #22 DE
Scout: 4-star, #20 DE
24/7 Sports: 4-star, #3 SDE, #57 overall

Based on Wormley's ratings and offers, I think it's pretty safe to say that Wormley is a complete wild card.  The only "elite" program to offer Wormley a car scholarship was Ohio State, and the other programs are all middle of the road.  People who look to scholarship offers more than ratings might not be all that enthused.  As for people who prefer ratings, well, the mixed reviews are curious.  Wormley has been on Michigan fans' radar since his sophomore season, he plays for a decent program at Whitmer, and he's a superb shotput/discus thrower.  He's had plenty of attention, but Rivals seems to be down on him.  Those reasons, explained by Josh Helmholdt from The Wolverine at one point, seems to be that he lacks a strong motor, lacks aggression, and might be a better fit at offensive tackle in college.

Most of Wormley's highlights seem to come from his sophomore season, with junior year film surprisingly scarce for such high profile player.  When he was listed as a 6'4", 225 lb. sophomore, he looked like an explosive edge rusher with a good frame and the speed to chase down quarterbacks and even running backs in the open field.  He looked like an absolute beast and I tended to agree that he was an elite player headed for perhaps the top spot in Ohio's recruiting ranks for 2012.

But something happened before his junior year.  He apparently added about 25-30 pounds (or more), lost some of that explosiveness, and just seemed pretty lethargic.  I have even suggested that he looked like he was injured and just couldn't go 100% last season.  Something was amiss.  His 2009 performance should have earned him offers from Michigan and Ohio State; his 2010 performance should have earned him offers from Illinois and Indiana.

The above picture seems to be representative of what I see in Wormley.  He's got big thighs and a big butt, and his upper body doesn't seem to fill out his jersey and shoulder pads.  That indicates to me that he's got some filling out to do, and when he does reach maturity, he might be 30 pounds heavier than he was last season.  If and when that happens, he'll be 6'5"-ish and maybe 285-290 pounds.  Do you turn that guy into a strongside defensive end, a 3-tech defensive tackle, or do you try to make an offensive tackle out of him?  I'm not entirely sure.  He's got the athleticism inside of him to do any of those things, but it depends on whether he's healthy and how hard he pushes himself.

Wormley is the 21st commitment of the 2012 class and joins four other defensive ends (if they all stay at that position group) in the bunch.  The last Whitmer product to come to Michigan was tight end Kevin Koger, who will be a senior this season.

TTB Rating: 73

Sione Houma, Wolverine

Utah fullback Sione Houma (with ball) committed to Michigan last week

Salt Lake City, UT, fullback Sione Houma committed to Michigan last Monday.  He chose Michigan over offers from Utah, Utah State, and Washington.

Houma is a 6'0", 211 lb. prospect with a reported 4.53 forty yard dash.  Last season he rushed for 1,211 yards and 9 touchdowns from the fullback position in a triple option offense.  His size and skills have led him to be ranked as a 2-star prospect by Scout . . . and not at all by anyone else.

Houma looks to be a typical West Coast-style fullback.  He's not huge and he's not particularly fast, but he's got a little bit of this and a little bit of that.  He shows an ability to adjust to the ball in the air on short passes, he has a little bit of vision, he breaks away for an occasional long run, and he breaks some tackles in the process.  His film won't wow anyone, but not many fullbacks' films do.  One thing I really like about Houma is that he runs with a great forward lean when going through traffic.  Since he's not particularly tall, that means anybody who hits him in the shoulder pads is bound to go backwards.  That body lean means that anybody who gets into his legs will probably bring him down, so he needs to work on his footwork a little bit.  But it's hard to take a high runner and make him run low, because guys just aren't comfortable making that transition.

Another thing I like about Houma is that he probably doesn't have the speed to break 50-yard runs or receptions, but he does have the ability to outrun linebackers and turn a 4-yard swing pass into a 10- or 15-yard swing passes.  That skill won't turn him into a superstar, but having a fullback who can gain some yards after the catch will be a valuable commodity when Michigan runs split backs and the quarterback decides to dump off the ball.  Salt Lake City isn't known for its football talent (only four 2011 prospects from the city signed FBS letters of intent - two to Utah, one to Navy, and one to Oregon State), but Houma looks superior to his peers.

Fullbacks aren't exactly hot commodities in the spread-oriented offenses of today's college football landscape, but Houma looks to be a slight upgrade from the John McColgans, Obi Oluigbos, and Vince Helmuths of the world.

TTB Rating: 69

2011 Countdown: #29 Stephen Hopkins

Stephen Hopkins

Name: Stephen Hopkins
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 227 lbs.
High school: Marcus High School in Flower Mound, TX
Position: Running back
Class: Sophomore
Jersey number: #33
Last year: I ranked Hopkins #50 and said he would be a short yardage back.  He carried the ball 37 times for 151 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Hopkins outstripped my predictions a little bit, although probably not significantly enough to warrant a much higher ranking than #50.  He was one of the primary backups to starters Vincent Smith and Michael Shaw.  His two best games came against Illinois (45 yards, 1 touchdown) and Iowa (38 yards, 1 touchdown) and showed the ability to break some tackles.  Overall, it was a solid debut season for the freshman from Texas.

Expectations have been raised, though.  Some spring practice observers suggest that Hopkins is the front-runner for the starting job, but I still have questions about whether he has the speed to be a featured running back.  There's no question that he has a place on the team, perhaps even as the starting fullback on a team that lacks one.  Al Borges has been known to use split backs in a West Coast Offense manner, handing off to him up the gut or tossing the ball to him on swing passes.  In an effort to get the best athletes on the field, I think it would behoove the Wolverines to use Hopkins as a fullback and only a part-time tailback.  I look for big plays out of a tailback, and Hopkins isn't the type of runner who can break off a 70-yarder at any given time.  He has lost nine pounds since last season (when he was 236), and there have been hints that the coaches want him in the 220-225 lb. range.  If that potential weight loss leads to a little extra pep in his step, that would be a good thing for his prospects as a runner.

Prediction: Starting fullback, part-time tailback; 50 carries, 200 yards, 5 touchdowns

2011 Countdown: #30 Michael Shaw

Michael Shaw

Name: Michael Shaw
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 187 lbs.
High school: Trotwood-Madison High School in Trotwood, OH
Position: Running back
Class: Senior
Jersey number: #20
Last year: I ranked Shaw #30 and said he would gain 500 yards as the backup superback.  He had 75 carries for 402 yards and 9 touchdowns.  He also caught 10 passes for 75 yards.

Since I started the countdown prior to the 2009 season, Shaw has been #29, #30, and now #30 again.  He showed up at Michigan with all kinds of promise and has been one of those guys with "potential" every single year.  Unfortunately, that potential gets consistently bottled up by injuries.  Shaw has suffered bumps and bruises to just about every extremity, which have limited him to only 802 yards in three seasons.  With only 159 career carries, though, he's averaging 5.0 yards per carry and scoring a touchdown every 14 carries.  Those are both pretty good rates . . . if he could only stay on the field.

Now Shaw enters his senior season as a seeming also-ran at the tailback position.  He didn't do himself any favors by welcoming the coaches with a broken hand suffered in the first couple spring practices, but he did show some toughness by playing with a cast.  Shaw performed well in the spring game, breaking off runs of 25, 9, and 5 yards in his only three carries, but that probably won't be enough to earn him a starting nod in the  fall.  The new coaching staff seems to prefer bigger backs, with the slight ones (Shaw, Vincent Smith) getting pushed downward on the depth chart.  I'm ranking Shaw higher than some of the other backs, though, because he's got home run speed and runs the ball hard.  He found some balance and tackle-breaking ability in 2010 that he didn't have before, and I think the I-formation offense will actually suit him better than the spread.  Shaw does well when he's able to run straight ahead.  Vision and cuts are not his strong suit, but run an iso or a power up the middle and he could be long gone if his blockers do their jobs.

Prediction: Backup running back; 75 carries, 400 yards

I'm back...

My wife

I have returned from vacation.  It was excellent, thanks for asking.

Obviously, there's a lot that happened while I was gone (commitments, departures, etc.).  Please bear with me while I catch up.

Thanks for all the comments and well wishes!

Hampton Coach Expects Marell Evans to Make an Impact in 2011

I didn't get overly excited when I heard that linebacker Marell Evans was transferring back to Michigan after a one year stint at FCS school Hampton University. Granted, I knew Marell was re-entering the program as an experienced player at a position of need, but Evans was an unheralded recruit who only saw limited playing time on the '08 and '09 squads, which were among the worst defenses in Michigan history. So getting back a role player from those teams didn't exactly send shivers of excitement down my spine. Then, after checking out Marell's stats at Hampton only to discover that he barely saw the field, I completely discounted any chance of a contribution from him this year.

With my expectations of Evans similar to those of a preferred walk-on, I was initially teriffied to hear that he was running with the ones during spring ball and, by many people's predictions, including our own Magnus/Thunder's, likely to start at linebacker in the fall. What would that say about the other linebackers?

But things don't look so grim after speaking with Hampton's Director of Player Development, Coach Ray Lewis*. For starters, Marell had a very good reason for not seeing much/any playing time at the FCS school.

"That [lack of playing time] was definitely due to injury...he ended up re-injuring his foot. I think he actually first got injured up there [at Michigan] before he even came down [to Hampton], so he re-aggravated the injury...it was tough on him, as it would be for any young man."

Although it's never enjoyable to hear about a person's misfortune, it's a relief to confirm that Marell's lack of playing time at Hampton was due to lingering injury rather than poor performance. Evans has now been on the mend for nearly an entire year, and he has earned a reputation as a hard worker. MGoBlue lists his height and weight at 6'3'', 225 lbs., and Evans certainly appears to be in good condition and physically ready to make an impact based on what we saw in the spring. Now, over four years removed from his unimpressive recruiting ratings, Evans is garnering favorable evaluations from people who know what they're talking about.

"He can go. I mean, I've played in the NFL; I've played Division 1 ball, and when he's healthy, he can really go...he's full of athletic ability...I'm sure if given an opportunity and he's healthy--and he's a leadership type of guy--I'm sure he'll do well."

Maybe I was foolish for dismissing Evans so quickly. He's no longer an unheralded underclassman playing in a disastrously managed defense; he's a RS Senior with an excellent work ethic performing under the supervision of Greg Mattison. It's also clear that Evans brings more to the table than just his playing ability. In fact, Coach Lewis used the word "leadership" to describe Evans no less than 4 times during our short conversation.

With only one year of eligibility remaining, Evans didn't transfer back to Michigan for the 2011 season to ride the bench. Expect Evans to see a lot more playing time this year with Michigan than he did during his tenure at Hampton.

* Not "that" Ray Lewis, obviously.