Michael Shaw, Washington Redskin

Congratulations to running back Michael Shaw, who has agreed to terms with the Washington Redskins.

2012 NFL Draft Preview: Michigan-style

Mike Martin will probably be the first Wolverine drafted, but not until Friday night

Last year saw only linebacker Jonas Mouton and offensive tackle Steve Schilling get drafted, both by the San Diego Chargers.  It's no sure thing that Michigan will beat that number this year, especially now that tight end Kevin Koger suffered an Achilles injury.  Here's a look at the Wolverines who are eligible for the draft:

Mike Martin, DT
Martin is the likely top choice out of Michigan.  He's 6'1 3/8", 306 lbs. and ran a 4.86 forty yard dash at the NFL Combine.  He also put up 36 repetitions on the 225 lb. bench press.  Martin is too undersized to play nose tackle in the NFL, but I think he can play as a defensive end in a 3-4 look or as a 3-tech defensive tackle in a 4-3 defense.  Martin is pretty quick and uses leverage very well, and best of all, he's a hard worker with a good motor.  I don't know if Martin will be a Pro Bowler, but he could have a ten-year career.
Projection: 3rd round to Chargers

David Molk, C
Molk is 6'0 7/8", 298 lbs. and ran a 5.2 forty.  The general knock on Molk is that he's not very big, which is true.  He is very quick, though, and excelled in the zone blocking system run by Rich Rodriguez from 2008-2010.  Molk looks like an NFL backup, but one of the problems with him will be that he doesn't offer any position flexibility - he's a center and that's it.  Lots of teams like their backup centers to be able to be plugged in at guard, too.  I doubt anyone's going to hand Molk a starting center job, but he could be brought in as the heir apparent to a veteran center or to work in for a zone running team.
Projection: 5th round to Texans

Junior Hemingway, WR
Hemingway is 6'0 7/8", 225 lbs., and ran a 4.51 forty yard dash at the NFL Combine, which is much faster than I expected him to run.  Hemingway doesn't play that fast, and his real strength seems to be the timing on his jump balls and his ability to outmuscle opposing receivers.  For a receiver with just average height, 225 lbs. is a lot.  Hemingway struggled with staying healthy early in his career, and his inability to get separation consistently limit him to being a possession receiver at the next level.
Projection: 6th round to Bears

Ryan Van Bergen, DE
Van Bergen is a 6'4 1/2", 290 lb. defensive end with a 4.99 forty.  He's a high character guy who has a little bit of surprising athleticism.  He lacks the pass rush abilities to make a star-level impact at the next level, but he could be an Aaron Smith-like defensive end for a 3-4 team or a left/strongside end for a 4-3 team.  I think he might be able to play for five or six years, but his ceiling is probably a journeyman type of career.
Projection: Undrafted

Kevin Koger, TE
Koger measured in at 6'3 3/4" and 253 lbs. with a 4.8 forty.  He was borderline draftable before hurting his Achilles, so I sincerely doubt whether he'll get picked.  Koger has decent size and speed, but he's not a particularly good runner after the catch and his hands are a bit shaky.  He might be able to be a second or third tight end for someone, but I don't think he'll ever be a starter.
Projection: Undrafted

Other undrafted players: WR Kelvin Grady, OT Mark Huyge, WR Martavious Odoms, RB Michael Shaw, CB Troy Woolfolk

All-Star Game Recaps

Kevin Koger caught only one pass for eight yards in Saturday's East-West Shrine game, but he impressed during the week leading up to the event and is the first player mentioned in a Sports Illustrated article identifying the game's 10 best practice performers. Koger played fullback and H-back for the West, notching a key block on Tyler Hansen's quarterback draw touchdown run and showing some awareness by picking up a botched snap exchange. SI writer Tony Pauline has this to say about the four-year starter:

"Koger was lost for much of the past three seasons in a Michigan offense that had little use for a tight end, but he displayed NFL ability in a big way. Koger was a dominant blocker all practice long, stopping opponents dead in their tracks. He made a terrific 25-yard reception down the seam in scrimmage, displaying natural pass catching skills. Koger lacks the foot speed to be a true down field threat, but at a position that's thin on talent in April's draft, he could be the biggest sleeper of them all."

SI's list of practice standouts also praises Iowa cornerback Shaun Prater and Michigan State wide receiver BJ Cunningham. Junior Hemingway wasn't mentioned in the article, and he didn't get to play in the Shrine Game, either, due to a hamstring injury. Koger's West team won the game, 24-17.

Michael Shaw tried to turn some NFL heads while playing in the Casino Del Sol College All-Star Game in Tuscon, Arizona last week. His Stars (East) team was defeated on a late touchdown from the Stripes (West), 24-21, but Shaw gained 29 yards on seven carries in the game, including a 16 yard run. In an interview with the Tuscon Citizen, Shaw spoke positively of Rich Rodriguez, saying that he expects his former coach to compete well against Oregon and USC in the Pac 12. He also spoke about his running style and what he's trying to prove to NFL scouts.

"I want to show them that I'm an every-down back. I have speed, but I don't want speed to be my crutch. I love to run inside. I love to be physical."

Martavious Odoms caught one pass for 23 yards in the Battle of Florida All-Star Game. His South team, coached by Miami Hurricanes legend Howard Schnellenberger, was rolled, 51-3, by Bobby Bowden's North squad. Marell Evans was scheduled to compete in the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl on Saturday, but no statistics appear to be available for him (EDIT: According to Evans's Twitter, he made 9 tackles, 1 forced fumble, and 1 pass breakup. -Thunder).

Casino del Sol College and Battle of Florida All-Star Games

Michael Shaw will be one of six Big Ten players participating in Monday's inaugural Casino del Sol College All-Star Game. Participants who may be of interest to Michigan fans:

5 Drew Ansorino - S - Penn State.

67 Quinn Barham - OT - Penn State

21 Stephfon Green - RB - Penn State

20 Michael Shaw - RB - Michigan

8 Dionte Allen - DB - Ohio State (FSU transfer)

68 Dennis Kelly - OT - Purdue

75 Greg Nosal - OG - Virginia Tech

94 Jerome Long - DT - San Diego State

70 Drew Nowak - DT - Western Michigan

The game will be played Monday at 6:00 p.m. at a former minor league baseball park, Kino Stadium, located in Tuscon, Arizona. Naturally, the Tuscon media asked Shaw to comment on Rich Rodriguez.

The Battle of Florida All-Star Game will be played in Boca Raton on Saturday January 21st at 8:00 p.m. Martavious Odoms will be one of three Big Ten players in the game:

26 Antonio Fenelus - CB - Wisconsin

9 Martavious Odoms - WR - Michigan

51 Gary Tinsley - LB - Minnesota

Running Back Preview: Michigan vs. Virginia Tech

David Wilson

MICHIGAN
Starter: Redshirt sophomore Fitzgerald Toussaint began the season alternating with junior Vincent Smith, but Toussaint quickly took the lead in the race to be the lead back.  Toussaint finished the season with 174 carries for 1,011 yards (5.8 yards per carry) and 9 touchdowns.  Toussaint has the toughness to break tackles, the stop-and-go moves to make people miss, and enough speed to be a breakaway threat.  Sophomore fullback Stephen Hopkins has carried 11 times for 43 yards (3.9 yards per carry).
Backups: Smith is the third down and change-of-pace back.  He rushed the ball 49 times for 296 yards (6.0 yards per carry) and 2 touchdowns.  Despite being only 5'6" and 172 lbs., he's the superior blocker.  Smith has also caught 10 passes for 142 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Senior Michael Shaw is the next guy in; he finished the regular season with 31 carries for 199 yards (6.4 yards per carry) and 3 touchdowns.

VIRGINIA TECH
Starter: Junior David Wilson has started all 13 games and finished the season with 266 carries for 1,627 yards (6.0 yards per carry) and 9 touchdowns.  Wilson has also caught 21 passes for 126 yards (6.0 yards per catch) and 1 touchdown.  Redshirt junior fullback Joey Phillips has 3 carries for 2 yards on the season with zero touchdowns; he has yet to catch a pass.
Backups: Fifth year senior Josh Oglesby has 90 carries for 336 yards (3.7 yards per carry) and 6 touchdowns.  Redshirt sophomore Tony Gregory has the next most carries with 16 for just 27 yards (1.7 yards per carry).

THE TAKEAWAY
Wilson is the more accomplished back.  He leads Toussaint in yardage and yards per carry.  Wilson has at least one explosive play (20+ yards) in 10 out of his 13 games, and his only sub-80-yard rushing effort of the season came against Clemson in the ACC Championship.  Toussaint is also less effective and almost non-existent in the passing game (5 catches, 14 yards, 1 touchdown) than Wilson.  Fortunately for Michigan the Wolverines have significantly more depth at the position with two backups who have starting experience and a fullback who can run a little bit, too.  If there's an injury to either running back, Michigan is more able to withstand the blow.

Running back play is largely dependent on the offensive line (which we'll discuss another day), but this is a near wash when both teams are at full strength.  Wilson is not only the First Team All-ACC running back, but has also been voted the conference's top overall player and was recently voted to the All-America team.  Toussaint would very likely have been All-Big Ten if not for the early-season platoon and missing one game due to injury.  With a superior fullback and experienced, potentially explosive backups, I have to give the advantage to . . .
Advantage: Michigan

Michigan vs. Nebraska Awards

Jeremy Gallon hauls in a touchdown pass
(image via Rivals)

Let's see more of this guy on offense . . . Jeremy Gallon/Martavious Odoms.  Gallon isn't exactly DeSean Jackson with the football in his hands, but he sure does have a way of gaining extra yards in the open field.  Whenever he catches the ball, I expect at least a couple people to miss tackles.  Odoms, on the other hand, just plays with a reckless energy that I'm going to miss next year.  He's finally getting some more time, and it's nice to see him playing more as he finishes out his career.  His 38-yard touchdown reception was a dagger.

Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . Michael Shaw.  Shaw has the speed to get outside, but Michigan has had a hard time sealing the edge this season.  Shaw is more of a straight-ahead runner, and I don't think he's being used properly right now, because he doesn't have great vision.  I was in support of playing him more early in the season, but as Al Borges seems to go away from the I-formation as the season wears on, Shaw's talents are a bit superfluous.

Let's see more of this guy on defense . . . nobody.  The defense is operating at a high level right now.  There's no need to mess with success.

Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . nobody.  See above.

Play of the game . . . Terrence Robinson's forced fumble on the opening kick of the second half, which was recovered by Courtney Avery.  Robinson has barely played on offense this season, but he has made his presence his known on special teams.  With Michigan clinging to a 17-10 lead coming out of halftime, this particular play must have made Nebraska thing that it just wasn't their day.  The offense scored a touchdown to make it 24-10 and the game was essentially over.

MVP of the game . . . Fitzgerald Toussaint.  Toussaint had 29 carries for 138 yards and 2 touchdowns.  On a day when the offensive line struggled to create holes in the running game, Toussaint made positive plays on snaps that looked to be doomed.  I often talk about explosive plays in the running game, and Toussaint now has at least one 20+ yard rush in 6 out of 13 career games, including his 31-yard touchdown against the Cornhuskers.  Toussaint now has 891 yards and 9 touchdowns on the season.

Michigan vs. Iowa Awards

Freshman cornerback Blake Countess tackles touted receiver Marvin McNutt
(image via MGoBlue.com)

Let's see more of this guy on offense . . . Michael Shaw.  If Fitzgerald Toussaint's apparent shoulder injury keeps him out next week, I would like to see Shaw get some playing time in lieu of Toussaint.  Vincent Smith has established himself as a capable third down back and receiver out of the backfield (although he dropped a key pass against the Hawkeyes), but he has also established himself as being incapable of playing the role of a lead back.  Shaw is averaging 6.4 yards a carry and has the ability to break big plays.  Smith hasn't had double-digit carries all season, and it should probably stay that way.

Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . tentative Denard.  The coaches need to rethink their coaching of Robinson and tell him to go all out.  The current iteration of Denard Robinson has him avoiding contact at all costs and searching for the sideline.  For a unit that can't create big plays down the field in the passing game now that Big Ten play has started, Robinson needs to be the player he was last year - the one that almost always looked for a few extra yards here or there, and the one who could look like he was running out of bounds and then turn up the sideline for a huge play.

Let's see more of this guy on defense . . . Thomas Gordon.  Gordon has had a hand in twice as many turnovers as anyone else on the team (1 interception, 3 fumble recoveries, 2 forced fumbles), but he found himself watching from the bench as Troy Woolfolk started at safety on Saturday.  Woolfolk isn't 100% healthy and should have sat out against a cupcake or two earlier in the season to get ready for the Big Ten, but the coaches sent him out there every week, anyway, and now we're seeing the repercussions.  Gordon needs to be on the field, and Woolfolk ought to be subbing in at corner, safety, or both.

Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . Desmond Morgan.  I'm a big fan of Morgan and his potential, but the bottom line is that he's a true freshman playing in the run-heavy Big Ten.  Iowa took advantage of him, and it seemed to be on purpose.  Whether the answer is Brandon Herron, Brandin Hawthorne, or Mike Jones, somebody with a little more experience ought to fill in.  What we're seeing right now is exactly the reason I was hoping that Marell Evans would start at WILL, but unfortunately, Evans is in purgatory right now while the coaches try to sort out some issues with his transfer credits; Evans' career might be done or he might be able to get a sixth year of eligibility.

Play of the game . . . Junior Hemingway's jump-ball catch.  At one point in the fourth quarter (I think), Denard Robinson threw a laser to a well-covered Hemingway.  The receiver - who had dropped two easy passes earlier in the game - went over top of the Iowa defensive back to reel in the ill-advised pass.  It was a typical play for Hemingway, who has saved Robinson's butt on several occasions in the past couple seasons.

MVP of the game . . . Blake Countess.  Perhaps I'm overstating the importance of Countess' performance on Saturday, but he did an excellent job on a very good receiver in the form of Iowa's Marvin McNutt.  Of course, it helps that nobody else had a standout game, but Countess is the team's best corner, in my opinion.  McNutt could have had a huge day, but in large part due to Countess, McNutt either had the ball knocked away or was tackled immediately when Countess was on him.  The freshman cornerback stepped up to the challenge and continues to look like the next great corner in Ann Arbor.

Michigan 36, Purdue 14

Fitzgerald Toussaint had a career best game with 170 yards and 2 touchdowns

Fitzgerald Toussaint is hitting his stride.  Finally healthy after two years of long-term injury issues, Toussaint is showing what he can do.  He had 20 carries for 170 yards, including a spectacular 59-yard touchdown run (Michigan's longest run of the year).  He's averaging 6.1 yards per carry on the season.  Perhaps the best part of Toussaint's game is the way he finishes runs.  Despite not being particularly big, he always seems to churn his legs for an extra couple yards after contact.  His yardage total was the best by a Michigan running back since Michael Hart had 215 against Eastern Michigan back in 2007.

Where have you gone, Michael Shaw?  In this, his senior season, Shaw is on pace for his fewest career carries.  His career low is 42 (in both 2008 and 2009), and despite being mostly injury free this season, he has only 22 carries through eight games.  Shaw has been a big play guy this year and is averaging 6.4 yards per carry, but for some reason, the coaches haven't put their faith in him.  Even freshman Thomas Rawls (13 carries) is getting almost  as many carries as Shaw, and Rawls probably should have redshirted with so many guys ahead of him.

Mike Martin finally showed up.  Martin had 7 tackles and 2 sacks on the day, one of them for a safety (which probably should have been negated due to grabbing Purdue quarterback Caleb TerBush's facemask).  He's been a little bit of a disappointment so far this year with his lack of production, but maybe this is a sign of things to come for him.  Eight games into the season, Martin only has 28 tackles and 2.5 sacks, so 25% of his tackles and 80% of his sacks came in this one game.

Not a fan of the Denard/Devin combo this time.  At some point Devin Gardner needs to run the base offense, whether Denard Robinson is in the game or not.  It seems like Robinson is usually used as the decoy rather than the ballcarrier in the two-QB formations, but defenses are ready for it at this point.  They know that when Denard is in the game, something funky is going to happen.  So instead of committing fully to the distracting part of the play, everyone stays home, watches for the double pass, etc.  To catch a defense truly off balance, offensive coordinator Al Borges needs to line Robinson up at running back or wide receiver and actually run a base play out of that formation.  Hand the ball off to him in the I-formation, throw a slant or a hitch to him, etc.  The halfback pass from Vincent Smith might have worked if not for the fact that Robinson was in the game and the defense was being extra careful.

Maybe Matt Wile should still punt.  On 12 punts this season, Will Hagerup is averaging 34.8 yards per punt and has put four of them inside the 20.  On 14 punts this season, Matt Wile is averaging 41.1 yards per punt and has put four of them inside the 20.  Hagerup had a good season last year and looked like a potential All-Big Ten punter, but he's been disappointing so far this year.  Michigan is averaging just over three punts per game, so the difference between the two is around 21 yards of field position per game.

Desmond Morgan looks good.  He seems to be steadily improving after looking lost early in the season.  Morgan earned the start over Brandin Hawthorne (whose tackling efforts in the MSU game were disappointing) and responded with 9 tackles to lead the team.  I thought it would take Morgan a little more time to adjust to playing linebacker in college, but here he is starting as a true freshman.  High school quarterbacks just seem to catch on a little quicker.

Courtney Avery's game of firsts.  Speaking of high school quarterbacks, Avery got his first career interception when he caught a deflected pass, and Avery got his first sack (well, half of a sack, shared with Craig Roh) when he helped chase down a scrambling Robert Marve.  That interception gives Avery a share of the team lead in picks, since nobody else has made more than one.

I've had about enough of J.T. Floyd.  He seems to talk a fair amount of smack for not being very good, and he could very well be Michigan's fourth best corner.  I would take Blake Countess, Courtney Avery, and a healthy Troy Woolfolk over Floyd.  Floyd's poor tackling effort late in the game cost Michigan seven points when he stood and danced with O.J. Ross while Ross waited for some help from a Boilermaker blocker.  After the two danced for what seemed like an hour, Floyd got blocked and Ross slipped into the end zone for a touchdown.

I'll take 7-1 at this point.  Michigan has already matched last year's win total with four games to go.  It's a pretty tough four-game stretch as far as the Big Ten goes, but all four games are winnable.  The two most dangerous remaining foes, Ohio State and Nebraska, have had their own issues.  Regardless, this team is on the right path and seems headed for some good November games.  I like the direction Michigan is headed.

Michigan at Northwestern Awards

Does cringing when I see Denard throw the ball make me a bad person?
(image via TheWolverine.com)

Let's see more of this guy on offense . . . Michael Shaw.  Shaw clearly isn't the most decisive running back in the world.  But he is very fast and, despite some people's opinions, will lower his shoulder and run through people when cornered.  I agreed with the way Al Borges used him on Saturday, which was to outrun the Wildcats' defense to the edge.  I won't be clamoring for Shaw to start anytime soon, but he can serve a role on this team.  Oh, and I wouldn't mind seeing him return kickoffs along with Jeremy Gallon.  Give Shaw an alley and you never know what could happen.

Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . opposing defenders running the other way with the football.  Denard's interceptions are maddening.  It's not like he's trying to fit passes into tight windows and defenders are making nice plays on the ball.  Nor is it that his passes are bouncing off the hands of his receivers into the grips of defensive backs.  Denard is just flat-out throwing bad passes, whether because of bad mechanics, bad reads, or both.

Let's see more of this guy on defense . . . William Campbell.  I think it's near time that Campbell gets a start.  Starting defensive end Will Heininger is just a guy.  It would be nice to see Ryan Van Bergen bump from 3-tech tackle to 5-tech end.  To me that puts the best four defensive linemen on the field at once, with Craig Roh and Mike Martin the other two linemen.

Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . Desmond Morgan.  I'm not really sure why Morgan is playing so much.  I've always maintained that I think he will be a solid player in the future, but he got more playing time on Saturday than I would expect in a fairly tough game.  Brandin Hawthorne is a better player overall and a bigger playmaker.  If and when Brandon Herron returns to action, I think he deserves another shot, too.

Play of the game . . . Thomas Gordon's strip and recovery.  When Gordon stripped the ball away from Northwestern wide receiver Jeremy Ebert, I thought that sealed the game for Michigan.  As the second man in, I thought Gordon did a tremendous job of raking at the ball immediately before Ebert could get to the ground.

MVP of the Northwestern game . . . Denard Robinson.  Even though Robinson threw some maddening interceptions and incompletions in the first half, he once again turned on the jets when the Wolverines needed it in the second half.  He finished the game completing 17/26 passes for 337 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions; he also had 25 carries for 117 yards and 2 touchdowns.  It's been said elsewhere, but it's pretty ridiculous that a 454-yard, 4-touchdown performance can seem pretty ho-hum after all of his heroics.  We're going to see 100-yard rushers and 300-yard passers and 100-yard receivers in the future, but it will be a long, long time before Michigan fans ever get to root for a player like him again.

Michigan 42, Northwestern 24

Is it just me or does Michael Shaw look like a prototypical football player?  Here he scores
on a 2-yard touchdown run.  (Image via MGoBlue.com)

This first bullet almost called for the backup QB.  Not permanently, of course.  But if Denard Robinson continued in the second half the way he played in the first half, I would have been asking for Devin Gardner to get a shot.  Gardner has played well in his increasing role, and Robinson threw three horrible interceptions in the first half.  Robinson's first half looked like this: 10/18 passing, 178 yards, 2 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and several of those completions were bad throws where his receivers saved him (the bomb to Junior Hemingway, the TD to Steve Watson, etc.).  In the second half, Robinson redeemed himself on 7/8 passing for 159 yards with zero touchdowns and, most importantly, zero picks.

Mike Shaw provided a little bit of a spark.  Neither of Michigan's first two running backs had much of a day.   Fitzgerald Toussaint had 14 carries for 25 yards and couldn't punch the ball in on two goal line opportunities.  Vincent Smith had 3 carries for 8 yards.  It looked to me like Shaw's speed was too much for the Northwestern defense.  He beat the Wildcats to the edge a couple times, rushing 6 times for 25 yards and 1 touchdown, plus making 1 reception for 12 yards.  I was impressed with the Wildcats' rush defense and tackling.

That's not the Dan Persa I remember.  I think Michigan got a little lucky that Persa still has his Achilles on his mind.  It seemed like there were a few opportunities for Persa to run where he decided to throw the ball instead.  He completed 32/44 passes, but a lot of those were bubble screens that were essentially sweep plays and easy completions.  Other than one 39-yard bomb over Blake Countess, the Wolverines kept everything in front of them.

Kenny Demens had his best game of the year.  Demens hasn't been as productive this year as I expected, but he's still been a solid player.  This game was his best, though.  He had 10 tackles, including a sack, and did a good job of chasing down wide receivers and crossing routes in space.  A lot of middle linebackers (Obi Ezeh, for example) would have been left in the dust or would have missed the tackle on those smaller players, but Demens is so strong that if he gets his hands on someone, that person is going to the ground.

Michigan needs to review the option.  I was somewhat surprised that Northwestern didn't run more option.  They had quite a bit of success with it in the first half, and I thought Michigan did a poor job of defending it.  They didn't have guys in position to make plays, they were tentative when they got there (Jake Ryan), or they just failed to square their shoulders and make the tackle (Carvin Johnson).  The bubble screen was effective and it's a safer play, so maybe that's why the Wildcats didn't run the option as much.

Congrats to Steve Watson.  Watson stuck around for five years, played tight end, outside linebacker, defensive end, and now tight end again . . . and finally caught his first collegiate pass on a 9-yard scoring play where he adjusted well and got his hands underneath the ball on a poor throw from Robinson.  That had to be exciting for him.

The defensive line is improving.  I wish William Campbell weren't already a junior, because that kid is close to turning into a player.  He's going to have only one year as a starter at Michigan, despite the fact that he was totally unneeded in 2009 and Rich Rodriguez wasted him in 2010, too, by burning his eligibility at defensive tackle and then flipping him to guard halfway through the year.  Overall, the defensive line had 14 tackles and 2 sacks.

It's horn-tootin' time.  Okay, not really.  My predictions from Friday weren't close to being 100% accurate, but I did say that Persa would have 325 total yards (he had 326) and that the final score would be 38-24 (it was 42-24).  I keep forgetting to review my predictions in these wrap-up posts, so here's where I do that.  On the other hand, Denard didn't carry the ball 12 times (more like 25), Jeremy Gallon didn't score on special teams (but he did on offense!), and Northwestern's running backs didn't average 2.5 yards a carry (more like 5.5).  Also, there's a picture of Denise Milani wearing a tight dress, so I think that was a good move on my part, too.

I typically like Pat Fitzgerald, but . . . he seemed like a bit of a weirdo during his halftime interview with Jeannine Edwards.  He was all rubbing his head and using strange vocal inflections.  I guess that's what adrenaline does to some people, but he seemed a little high strung.

Taylor Lewan false started but nobody called it.  Lewan has been penalty-free so far this year, I believe, but he should have been flagged for jumping the snap.  He probably won't be so lucky next time, and I'm guessing Michigan State's coaches will alert the refs to look for that next week; Lewan did it a bunch last year, too.

Speaking of the referees . . . Michigan got lucky a few times on Saturday night.  Brandin Hawthorne's interception looked like an incomplete pass to me (his hands were under it, but I thought the ball clearly moved when the nose hit the ground), Jeremy Ebert's fumble was about as close as it gets (I think it was a fumble but probably wouldn't have been overturned if he had been called down in the first place), and Jordan Kovacs probably should have been called for a facemask (his right hand was okay, but it looked like his left hand pulled on the bottom bar).  Of course, Northwestern was holding the s*** out of Michigan's cornerbacks and safeties on those bubble screens, so maybe the penalties evened out.

Michigan 28, San Diego State 7

Denard Robinson had 200 yards rushing in Saturday's 28-21 victory (image via LA Times)

What is this "defense" thing everyone keeps talking about?  Aside from the Notre Dame game, Michigan has allowed only 6.7 points per game.  Admittedly, those other three opponents have been mediocre - two MAC teams and a decent squad from the MWC - but this is still a somewhat impressive turnaround from last year.  The Wolverines held San Diego State's rushing attack to only 4.2 yards per carry and forced quarterback Ryan Lindley into completing fewer than 50% of his passes.

Weekly Denard Robinson blurb.  I'm not sure how I feel about Denard Robinson's play right now.  I love the kid for his heart and attitude - and considerable running skills - but something just isn't clicking.  He finished the game 8-for-17 passing with 93 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.  Those numbers are horrible, and that's the third week in a row that his completion percentage has been lower than 50%.  And while it would have been great for Kevin Koger to grab that pass that hit him right in the stomach, the bottom line is that Robinson is extremely inaccurate and making bad decisions.  He threw one pass into double coverage that had no business being thrown, and the other he threw the other pick to a blanketed receiver.  If Michigan keeps winning, then it doesn't really matter what his completion percentage is.  But if his inaccuracy bites the Wolverines in the butt at any point - and it probably will - then you can bet that some members of the Michigan fan base and the media will start wondering if Devin Gardner should get a shot at quarterback and if Robinson should move to running back.  On top of the scattershot arm, it seems to me that Robinson looks a bit slower this year than he did last season.  Perhaps he's worn down or defenses are faster this year; I know he had a 53-yard touchdown run and 200 yards rushing overall, but something seems different.

Craig Roh reads Touch the Banner.  Having been spurred on by my call for him to be relegated to a backup role a couple weeks ago, Roh has since responded with two solid games.  This week he had 2 tackles; one was a short yardage stuff of running back Ronnie Hillman, and the other was a sack of Lindley on which Roh forced a fumble.  It's slightly disappointing that Michigan could only manage one sack on 48 attempts, but it seemed like San Diego State started taking shorter drops and getting the ball out quicker as the game wore on.

Running back argh.  First, I would like to say that I thought Vincent Smith (9 carries, 49 yards, 1 TD) had his best day running the ball at Michigan - except for the fumble.  I know he's had better games statistically (118 yards vs. Eastern Michigan last week, 166 yards against Delaware State in 2009), but those were into gaping holes.  Smith actually took short gains and turned them into long gains or a touchdown this week.  Hooray for him.  Fitzgerald Toussaint had a solid day, too (13 carries, 67 yards).  But dammit, I'm going to start beating the Michael Cox drum again.  Stephen Hopkins is my new whipping boy.  Hopkins needs to sit his butt on the bench and not see the light of day unless he's a lead blocker or running down the field on special teams or something.  Not only is he slow, but he fumbles.  In six carries this season, he has fumbled twice; in 43 career carries, he has fumbled three times.  If you're going to be a fumbler, you should at least offer a little bit of reward for the risk; he's averaging 3.9 yards a carry in his career.  Fine, Toussaint and Smith are the top two backs, whatever.  But if you're going to give a third guy a carry, for God's sake let it be Cox (8.9 yards a carry) or Michael Shaw (5.2).

Jake Ryan is a dreamboat.  That dude is just a playmaker.  He's always around the ball and always making things happen.  Going back to the spring when he had a sack and an interception returned for a touchdown, Ryan has been a stud.  In four games this season, he has 13 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 2 fumble recoveries, and forced the interception that Brandon Herron returned 94 yards for a touchdown against Western Michigan; he almost had a third fumble recovery on Saturday, but Thomas Gordon beat him to it by a fraction of a second.  Ryan still does some fundamental things wrong, but this kid looks like a future star.  Also, he has pretty hair that the ladies surely love.

Speaking of future stars.  Blake Countess got a lot of run on Saturday, and he looked more than capable.  San Diego State started picking on him, and Countess responded with 7 tackles and a pass breakup.  The true freshman cornerback was in good position most of the time, and when he was beaten, it was on pinpoint throws by a fifth year senior quarterback.  While I hope that starter Troy Woolfolk can return soon after aggravating his sprained ankle, it looks like Michigan has a capable backup if Woolfolk needs to sit out next week.

On SDSU's list of things to review this week: option responsibilities.  Seriously, three dudes jump the pitch man, and nobody accounts for the quarterback?

Congratulations to Brady Hoke.  I know it must be tough to coach against the kids he coached last year and the coaches he worked with last season, but it was classy all around - except for the words of former SDSU lineman Kyle Turley, who is a certified douche.  San Diego State's head coach Rocky Long had nothing but good things to say about Hoke.  I don't have any statistics to back this up, but I imagine it's pretty rare for a college head coach to take another head coaching job . . . and then play his old team the following year.

When I get old, I want to look like Greg Mattison.  He's still all barrel chested and stuff.  He must eat his spinach.  That dude still looks like he could wrestle a bear.  And my money's not on the bear.

Michigan 35, Notre Dame 31

With about 30 seconds remaining in last night's game and Notre Dame up 31-28, I said to my fellow watchers, "I predicted Notre Dame would win by a score of 31-27.  I don't want  that to be the score, but that was my pick."

I'm glad I was wrong.

That was one of the most exciting games I've seen as a Michigan fan.  It reminded me of the 2004 "Henne to Edwards Game", a victory over MSU in which quarterback Chad Henne chucked the ball up repeatedly to wide receiver Braylon Edwards, who decided to just flat-out win the game for his team.  With Michigan down 17-7 at halftime, I thought to myself, "Well, hopefully Brady Hoke returns to the ways of Lloyd Carr and they become a 'second half team.'"  Uh . . . yep.  The Wolverines scored 28 points in the fourth quarter, including 14 in the final 1:12 to steal a victory from the Irish.

Wow.

Denard Robinson sucks is awesome.  I have to admit there was a time that I thought this was going to be Robinson's worst game as a starter.  Early on he was just plain inaccurate.  Then he became inaccurate and  made poor decisions.  Then he made poor decisions . . . accurately.  Robinson finished the game 11-for-24 for 338 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.  He also carried the ball 16 times for 108 yards and 1 touchdown.  His total of 446 yards and 5 touchdowns was excellent, but how he got there was strange.  Through three quarters of football, he was 4-for-14 passing (if that accuracy rate sounds familiarly horrible, that's because it's the same as Michigan's kickers circa 2010) for 136 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions.  In the fourth stanza, Robinson went 8-for-11 for 217 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, plus a recovered Stephen Hopkins fumble that he turned into a touchdown.

Notre Dame is awesome sucks.  I do think Notre Dame is an improved team this season, but they have nothing to show for it.  They won their final four games in 2010 and had two opportunities for victories to open 2011, but they blew both chances.  They remind me of Michigan from the past couple years - able to move the ball, but turnover prone; the Irish have 9 turnovers in two games.  Quarterback Tommy Rees looked excellent at times, but he also threw an ill advised pick to cornerback J.T. Floyd, failed to see Jordan Kovacs dropping back for another interception, and let the ball slip from his hand in the red zone late in the game, a fumble that defensive lineman Ryan Van Bergen recovered.  Overall, Rees was 27-for-39 for 315 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Receiver Michael Floyd caught 13 of those passes for 159 yards, but failed to turn any of those receptions into scores.

Thank goodness for Junior Hemingway.  There were lots of "heroes" in the game - Robinson, Jeremy Gallon, Roy Roundtree, Jordan Kovacs, Matt Wile, etc.  But none were more important than Hemingway, whose amazing body control saved Robinson's ass time after time.  Robinson completed only 46% of his passes on the day, but two of his eleven completions were amazing catches by Hemingway for big plays.  His first of the day was a 43-yard TD reception on which he leapt high in the air, came down with the ball, and blasted his way through a Notre Dame defensive back to just barely reach the pylon.  His second was on a horrible decision to throw the ball into double coverage, when he stopped and jumped high in the air once again.  His third was on a crossing route when he kept running despite presumably seeing Robinson in the grasp of a defender; Robinson made his best throw of the night, which Hemingway caught and turned into a 77-yard gain before being tackled inside the 10-yard line.  He ended the night with 3 receptions, 165 yards, and 1 touchdown.  Nobody else on Michigan's team can do what Hemingway does.

The offense is still explosive.  I hate hate hate it when people like Mark May question Al Borges' ability to use Denard Robinson effectively.  Michigan's offense is just fine when Robinson makes accurate throws.  When Robinson is inaccurate, the offense suffers.  But insert any quarterback's name in that previous sentence and the comment holds true.  Robinson made a few bad decisions in the first half (throwing an ill advised screen pass to Vincent Smith that was picked, throwing into double coverage, tossing jump balls to the 5'8" Jeremy Gallon, etc.), but there were wide open receivers that Robinson repeatedly missed.  He doesn't throw an accurate deep ball, and that was apparent last year under "genius" Rich Rodriguez, too.  Robinson got a lot of yardage from bubble screens and short throws last year, but with teams stacking the line of scrimmage and daring Michigan to "pass to win," those hitches and bubble screens just aren't going to be there.  The bubble screen worked well for Notre Dame because Michigan was backed off in fear of Michael Floyd.

What happened to Michigan's defensive line?  I knew Notre Dame's offensive line would be pretty solid, but so far the defensive linemen have produced very little through two games.  They had 8 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, and 2 fumble recoveries in last night's contest, but both fumble recoveries were more a function of being lucky than good.  Starters Craig Roh and Will Heininger didn't register on the stat sheet, and the only production from the backups came from 3 tackles by Jibreel Black and a fumble recovery by William Campbell.  Meanwhile, the team didn't register a single sack despite 39 pass attempts, and running back Cierre Wood gashed the Wolverines for 134 yards and 5.4 yards a pop.  The linebackers and defensive backs have been outplaying the defensive line in Michigan's two games.

Pass protection good, run blocking bad.  Except for a Dan Fox blitz that resulted in a quick sack, the offensive line protected Robinson very well.  He did scramble around at times, but usually that was after hanging around in the pocket for a while and not getting rid of the ball.  On the other hand, Michigan's running backs got zero blocking whatsoever.  They combined for 8 carries, 13 yards, and 1 fumble.  Yikes.  Fitzgerald Toussaint apparently suffered an injury and couldn't play, and despite having -3 yards, Michael Shaw looked the best of the bunch after he was walled off by defenders and still had the speed to get to the outside.  Hopkins is simply too slow to be a feature back, and he fumbled on the goal line.  Luckily, Robinson was there to pick up the ball and score.  Michigan could also use a new short yardage play, aside from the dive out of a single back formation.

Wanted: A Healthy Troy Woolfolk.  With Eastern Michigan on the horizon, Woolfolk might get a week to rest up a bit.  That would be excellent news for a defensive backfield that lacks size and/or coverage ability.  J.T. Floyd and Courtney Avery were both overmatched by Michael Floyd, which is understandable since they're both smaller and perhaps slower.  I thought Avery had a decent day despite being flagged on a questionable pass interference call, but J.T. Floyd was picked on all night.  He had a couple nice plays, but he's just not starter quality.  Woolfolk played sporadically in spite of an ankle injury - which he noticeably aggravated a couple times - and a hand injury that forced him to wear a cast.

Wow.  I wish I could have been there.  If I lived in Michigan, there's no doubt I would have shelled out the money to attend.  That was the best Michigan crowd I think I've seen, and at 114,804, it was the largest in football history, too.  I thought ESPN did an excellent job of encapsulating the enormity of the crowd and the game.  Those in attendance will probably remember that game forever.

Go Blue!

Michigan vs. Western Michigan Awards

Linebacker Brandon Herron picks up a fumble and returns it 29 yards for a touchdown as
former Wolverine Dann O'Neill (#68) chases from behind

Let's see more of this guy on offense . . . Michael Shaw.  Fitzgerald Toussaint looked pretty solid as the starting running back (11 carries, 80 yards, 2 touchdowns), but Shaw (4 carries, 54 yards, 1 touchdown) has the speed to be a gamebreaker.  He also has a little bit of shake to him and can run through a tackle once in awhile.  The knock on Toussaint has been his vision, and his 43-yard run could have been longer if he had made a cutback.  Both performed well and should continue to see time, but hopefully Shaw gets more than 4 carries next week.

Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . Michael Schofield.  Schofield got the start at left guard because of an injury to Ricky Barnum.  While Schofield didn't play horribly, he's too tall at 6'7" to be a guard and doesn't have the agility that Barnum does.  Big #75 is a capable backup, but hopefully he can get back to being a second string tackle soon.

Let's see more of this guy on defense . . . Brandon Herron.  The fifth year senior linebacker got the start at WILL despite being listed second on the depth chart behind Mike Jones.  Neither player has lit the world on fire - until Herron's performance on Saturday - but #58's outstanding game should warrant another start next week.  He tallied a career high 8 tackles to go along with his 94-yard interception return for a touchdown and a 29-yard fumble return for a touchdown.

Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . J.T. Floyd.  I've never been a big fan of Floyd's abilities, and he again showed a lack of change-of-direction skills on Saturday.  In a perfect world, Floyd would be playing safety.  It's not a perfect world, obviously, because Boubacar Cissoko (who should be a senior) is in jail, Cullen Christian (who should be a sophomore) is at Pitt, and Justin Turner (who should be a redshirt sophomore) is out of football right now.  It's not Floyd's fault that he isn't very good at football, but I sure would like to see Troy Woolfolk on the field instead.  Floyd's ceiling is very low.

MVP of the Western Michigan game is . . . Brandon Herron.  He accounted for 12 of Michigan's 34 points and put the Wolverines up for good when he returned an interception 94 yards for a touchdown in the middle of the second quarter.  It took the breath out of Herron, but it sucked the life out of the Broncos.  The fumble return for a TD was the icing on the cake, and the combination of those two plays earned him the Walter Camp National Defensive Player of the Week award.

Play of the game . . . Herron's 94-yard interception return for a touchdown.  Not only did linebacker Jake Ryan bust through the line to bat the ball, but Herron stayed inbounds after catching it, and then raced down the sideline with a convoy of blockers that included 290 lb. defensive tackle Ryan Van Bergen and 300 lb. defensive tackle Mike Martin.  It was a total team effort and one of the most exciting plays I've experienced as a Michigan fan.

Michigan 34, Western Michigan 10

Jordan Kovacs, form tackler extraordinaire, gives Western Michigan quarterback Alex Carder a tour of his facemask

Well, that was weird.  I've never seen a Michigan game called due to weather.  Maybe that's because it's never happened before this weekend.  Like every other Michigan fan, I wanted to see the game continue.  These games against MAC teams are typically when you see awesome plays and great statistics - witness the 94-yard interception return by Brandon Herron, the 44-yard touchdown run by Michael Shaw, etc.  By the time the game was canceled with 1:16 remaining in the third quarter, Michigan had taken control and was likely bound for a couple more touchdowns and some more big plays on defense.  Safety is the most important thing, and I don't question the decision to cancel the game . . . but if someone ends up just short of 1,000 yards rushing or 1,000 yards receiving or some other significant statistical benchmark, we might look back at September 3 and wonder what could have been.

Al Borges isn't dumb.  People everywhere were concerned that offensive coordinator Al Borges would try to turn Denard Robinson into a quarterback who takes every snap from under center, but that simply wasn't the case.  It looked as though roughly 75% of the offensive formations were shotgun.  It looks as though Michigan was more likely to pass from the shotgun and run from the "I" but that could change as the season progresses.  Additionally, the offense isn't as high speed as it has been for the past few seasons under Rich Rodriguez, but it was still effective.  Michigan huddles now, which took some time to adjust to since I got used to watching Rodriguez's teams.  But the Wolverines averaged 7.5 yards per play against WMU, whereas they had only 5.7 against UConn in last season's opener.

Hello, Brandon Herron.  I don't know where the hell you came from, but I'm glad you're here.  I really thought Herron would be a backup and special teamer based on his play in the past and his multiple position switches over the past couple seasons, but he was in the right place at the right time and made some plays.  Despite being listed second on the depth chart at weakside linebacker, he started the game at WILL, made 8 tackles, returned a batted pass 94 yards for a touchdown, and picked up an Alex Carder fumble for a 29-yard touchdown.  It was the longest interception return in Michigan program history and the first time any defensive player scored twice in the same game.  All that came from a fifth year senior who previously had 34 career tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 pass breakup, and 1 fumble recovery.  Herron has always been considered a bit of a physical freak who lacks great instincts, but his instincts looked pretty good on Saturday . . . and nobody really came close to catching the 221 lb. linebacker from behind, either.

Special teams still suck.  Apparently it doesn't matter who coaches the special teams, whether it's an offensive or defensive guy, etc.  Some Michigan fans hated that defensive backs coach Tony Gibson was in charge of special teams because he was one of only four defensive coaches under Rodriguez.  Now an offensive guy (tight ends coach Dan Ferrigno) is coaching special teams, and they're still bad.  Kick returner Kelvin Grady doesn't look like anything special and made a bad decision to leave the endzone.  Brendan Gibbons had a low extra point attempt blocked.  Western Michigan averaged 31 yards per kickoff return and consistently had excellent field position.  Of course, special teams would have looked better if the suspended Will Hagerup were punting.  Freshman Matt Wile averaged 41.0 yards per punt but didn't have great hang time, and he averaged over 65 yards per kickoff, which is better than anyone - Hagerup, Seth Broekhuizen, or Gibbons - did last season.  There's potential there for Wile, but overall the special teams were disappointing.

Greg Mattison is awesome.  Does anyone have any doubt that former defensive coordinator Greg Robinson would have allowed Carder to throw for 350 yards and 4 touchdowns?  Anyone?  It looked like it might be a long day when WMU opened the game with a long drive on which Carder didn't throw a single incompletion on the way to a touchdown.  Michigan's players were confused, and at one point near the goal line, safety Carvin Johnson lined up on the wrong side of the field against a five-wide set, leaving cornerback Courtney Avery alone covering two wideouts.  Avery did an excellent job of splitting the two receivers and blasting the guy who caught the ball at the 1-yard line, but it led to a 1-yard touchdown run a couple plays later.  After that initial drive, though, Michigan's defense settled down.  It's clear that the Wolverines don't have a lot of horses on defense, because they weren't beating MAC players in one-on-one matchups often enough.  But they did come up with timely big plays (Jordan Kovacs' two sacks and a forced fumble, Jake Ryan's batted pass, Herron's two TD returns).  This  is what a "bend but don't break" defense looks like.

Oh no, Troy Woolfolk.  Fifth year senior Troy Woolfolk, playing in his first game since November 2009 against Ohio State, went down with another injury.  After sitting out last season with a dislocated ankle, he was carted off the field in the first quarter with another ankle injury.  Luckily, it sounds like it's only a sprain this time and Brady Hoke said that he could have returned if Michigan needed him, but it looked ominous.  Early in the game, he looked like the aggressive, speedy corner that Michigan lacked all of last season.  His replacement, J.T. Floyd, hasn't changed one bit - he's still too slow to be good.

Wheeee, Michigan running backs!  Neither of Michigan's primary running backs looked fantastic, but it looks like the right guys are playing.  Fitzgerald Toussaint had 11 carries for 80 yards and 2 touchdowns, both of which required a little bit of oomph that not all Michigan backs have had; included in those 11 carries was a 43-yarder.  Meanwhile, Shaw had 4 carries for 54 yards, including a 44-yard touchdown run.  He also looked good on a toss play on which he ran through a tackle.  Vincent Smith (2 carries, 11 yards) looked like a solid change-of-pace back, and Denard Robinson (8 carries, 46 yards) had a decent but unspectacular day running the ball.

It was a win.  Despite the mistakes and the scares, it looks like Michigan got out of the game relatively healthy, they allowed only 10 points, the defense probably gained a little bit of confidence, and the offense looked consistent at the least.  After the 2007 Appalachian State game and the 2008 Toledo loss, I appreciate these wins a little more.

Congratulations, Brady Hoke!  Congratulations to Coach Hoke, who got his first win at Michigan.  Hopefully many more will follow.  Go Blue!

Highlights: Michigan 34, Western Michigan 10

2011 Season Predictions

Hooray for middle linebackers who play like middle linebackers!

Well, it's always fun to take a look back and see how my predictions panned out, so here's a link to my 2010 Season Predictions.

And now for this year's picks:


Leading Rusher
I'm going to rescind my earlier faith in Michael Cox and guess that Michael Shaw will be the Wolverines' leading running back rusher in 2011.  Denard Robinson would be the obvious pick if Rich Rodriguez were still coaching, but Brady Hoke wants Robinson to run less.  It's basically a crapshoot with Thomas Rawls, Michael Cox, Fitzgerald Toussaint, and Shaw all vying for the starting RB role.  Between injuries Shaw will run for 700 yards and a couple other guys will have a few hundred apiece . . . but Denard should take the lead by a fairly small margin.
Prediction: Denard Robinson, 900 yards

Leading Receiver
The change in offense throws a wrench into my guess here, too.  I think Roy Roundtree is a very good receiver, but I also think he's going to struggle more now that he's been moved from the slot to the outside.  The only other serious threat to lead the team is Junior Hemingway, who might be derailed by injury like usual.  I guess I'll go with Hemingway and pray he stays healthy.
Prediction: Junior Hemingway, 1000 yards

Leading Tackler
I'm pretty confident that middle linebacker Kenny Demens will lead the team in tackles, provided his shoulder injury doesn't flare up again.  He had 82 last season and finished third on the team, despite only starting for half the year.  Safety Jordan Kovacs was second last year with 116 total tackles, but I think - and hope - that those numbers will drop significantly.
Prediction: Kenny Demens, 100 tackles

Leading Sacker
Considering that Michigan's sack totals have dropped to 41% of what they were in 2006, I have to think that the new defensive scheme will cause at least a small jump.  Of the defensive linemen and linebackers who graduated last year (Greg Banks, Renaldo Sagesse, Adam Patterson, Jonas Mouton, Obi Ezeh), none were great pass rushers.  The best rushers return (Ryan Van Bergen with 9 career sacks, Mike Martin with 6.5, and Craig Roh with 2.5) with some youthful potential in the forms of redshirt freshman Jake Ryan, sophomore Jibreel Black, and true freshman Frank Clark.  With all those blitzers and rushers potentially getting to the quarterback, weakside end Craig Roh should lead the team in sacks. 
Prediction: Craig Roh, 7 sacks

Leading Interceptor
Last year's interception leaders were cornerback James Rogers (since graduated) and free safety-turned-linebacker Cameron Gordon.  So those two are out, since linebackers rarely lead teams in interceptions.  That leaves us with a crew of defensive backs who have a combined four interceptions (Jordan Kovacs has 3, J.T. Floyd has 1).  Cornerbacks Troy Woolfolk and Courtney Avery have shown an ability to cover but not make big plays, and Floyd . . . well . . . just doesn't look like a very good cornerback.  It looks like Thomas Gordon will start at strong safety and he hasn't had a chance to show his pass coverage abilities yet since he played linebacker last year.  So it looks like Jordan Kovacs is my man.
Prediction: Jordan Kovacs, 3 interceptions

All-Big Ten First Team
Prediction: Denard Robinson, Mike Martin

Leading Scorer (non-QB, non-kicker)
Prediction: Michael Shaw

Breakout Offensive Player
This is a tough choice because almost every offensive starter returns.  Kevin Koger should see a significant leap in production, but he'll be a four-year starter.  I have a hard time picking a four-year starter as a breakout player.  So I'm going to go with Jeremy Gallon.  Gallon is #2 on the depth chart at wide receiver and should see some time in the slot in three- and four-wide sets.  He's quick, fast, and thickly built, and he could be an X-factor if he can hold onto the ball (which he couldn't do last year as a kick/punt returner).
Prediction: Jeremy Gallon

Breakout Defensive Player
I don't foresee anyone on Michigan's defense going from an unknown to an All-American, so "breakout" here has to be looked at from a small-scale perspective.  A few days ago, I picked freshman linebacker Desmond Morgan as a potential breakout player, since he's a frosh and will play at some point this season.  Anybody who starts at weakside linebacker will be a breakout player, really, since all the options are young and inexperienced.  Mike Jones is #1 on the depth chart, although I don't really think he's a playmaker.  I think I'll go with cornerback Courtney Avery.  Avery had a bad year last season, not because he's a bad athlete but because he wasn't ready to play.  He should have redshirted and taken a year to add some size.  Now he's a sophomore with playing experience and he might be the best cover corner on the roster, although true freshman Blake Countess is going to be a good one, too.
Prediction: Courtney Avery

Most Disappointing Offensive Player
Keep in mind that this is my  most disappointing offensive player, as in the one that I think will fall short of my previous expectations.  There was a time when I thought Roy Roundtree was headed toward wearing the #1 jersey.  On top of being a very good slot receiver, he was a good blocker and a playmaker after the catch.  He started to fall off toward the end of last season when he began dropping too many passes, particularly against Wisconsin and Ohio State.  And while he did have over 900 yards receiving last year, many of those receptions came in the middle of the field, an area that he won't roam as often from his new outside receiver position.  He should start this fall and put up decent numbers, but I don't know if the #1 jersey is in his future anymore.
Prediction: Roy Roundtree

Most Disappointing Defensive Player
Just like last year, it's tough to pick someone who's going to be disappointing, because not much is expected from most of the guys on this unit.  The bar has been lowered so much that it's almost impossible for anyone to limbo underneath it.  With that caveat aside, I think Troy Woolfolk is going to disappoint some people a little bit.  Absence makes the heart grow fonder, and many Michigan fans hope that Woolfolk will be Michigan's Savior in the Secondary this season.  He was a solid free safety and cornerback in 2009 before dislocating his ankle prior to the 2010 season, which might have been fortuitous since he preserved his last year of eligibility to play under a coach who actually knows what he's doing.  But Woolfolk has zero interceptions in his career, and while he's a solid tackler with excellent speed, I doubt he'll suddenly be causing turnover after turnover.  I expect continued solid play in the coming months, but nothing spectacular.
Prediction: Troy Woolfolk

The Big Finish

Sept. 3 vs. Western Michigan: WIN.  Michigan's offense ought to be too good for Western Michigan to handle.  Denard Robinson torched them in 2009 for one of his best career highlights, and he'll probably make some more highlights.  MAC teams just can't handle his speed.

Sept. 10 vs. Notre Dame: LOSS.  Notre Dame should have beaten Michigan in 2010, if not for quarterback Dayne Crist getting injured.  This year the Fighting Irish should be better.

Sept. 17 vs. Eastern Michigan: WIN.  The Screaming Eagles are horrible at football.

Sept. 24 vs. San Diego State: WIN.  I think this will be a pretty easy win.  SDSU lost a couple of their top receivers for the year due to injury.  Otherwise, I thought it was going to be a close win.

Oct. 1 vs. Minnesota: WIN.  The Golden Gophers are just a steap ahead of Eastern Michigan.

Oct. 8 at Northwestern: WIN.  The Wildcats have a solid offense that will put up some points, but I have confidence that defensive coordinator Greg Mattison will have some better ideas on how to stop the spread than his predecessors.

Oct. 15 at Michigan State: WIN.  It's about time that Michigan gets another victory against the Spartans, who got lucky repeatedly in the 2010 season.  I can't see Hoke and Mattison losing to MSU in year one.

Oct. 29 vs. Purdue: WIN.  Purdue is bad, and their starting quarterback from last year is out due to an ACL tear.

Nov. 5 at Iowa: LOSS.  Iowa is going to be good this year, unfortunately.  They always seem to play Michigan tough, and their defense is solid.  If this game were in Ann Arbor, I'd pick the Wolverines . . . but it's an away game.

Nov. 12 at Illinois: WIN. Illinois lost a couple good players in their defensive front seven, and the couple good players left shouldn't be enough to beat the Wolverines.

Nov. 19 vs. Nebraska: LOSS.  Nebraska's too good on both sides of the ball for Michigan to handle.  They might win the Big Ten in their first season.

Nov. 26 vs. Ohio State: LOSS.  I wish I could predict a Michigan victory here, but Ohio State has been so dominant in recent years that I can't see the Wolverines pulling out a victory.  All of OSU's suspended players will be back and warmed up for several weeks before coming to Ann Arbor.

Final Record: 8-4

The Wolverine Blog: An Interview with Yours Truly

Jamie O'Brien

The new editor of The Wolverine Blog, Jeff Contizano, made the impeccable decision to interview me about Michigan's upcoming season.  Head on over to TWB to discover my bulletproof predictions for the Wolverines.

Countdown to Kickoff: Day 19

Michael Shaw Press Conference: August 11, 2011

2011 Countdown: #30 Michael Shaw

Michael Shaw

Name: Michael Shaw
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 187 lbs.
High school: Trotwood-Madison High School in Trotwood, OH
Position: Running back
Class: Senior
Jersey number: #20
Last year: I ranked Shaw #30 and said he would gain 500 yards as the backup superback.  He had 75 carries for 402 yards and 9 touchdowns.  He also caught 10 passes for 75 yards.

Since I started the countdown prior to the 2009 season, Shaw has been #29, #30, and now #30 again.  He showed up at Michigan with all kinds of promise and has been one of those guys with "potential" every single year.  Unfortunately, that potential gets consistently bottled up by injuries.  Shaw has suffered bumps and bruises to just about every extremity, which have limited him to only 802 yards in three seasons.  With only 159 career carries, though, he's averaging 5.0 yards per carry and scoring a touchdown every 14 carries.  Those are both pretty good rates . . . if he could only stay on the field.

Now Shaw enters his senior season as a seeming also-ran at the tailback position.  He didn't do himself any favors by welcoming the coaches with a broken hand suffered in the first couple spring practices, but he did show some toughness by playing with a cast.  Shaw performed well in the spring game, breaking off runs of 25, 9, and 5 yards in his only three carries, but that probably won't be enough to earn him a starting nod in the  fall.  The new coaching staff seems to prefer bigger backs, with the slight ones (Shaw, Vincent Smith) getting pushed downward on the depth chart.  I'm ranking Shaw higher than some of the other backs, though, because he's got home run speed and runs the ball hard.  He found some balance and tackle-breaking ability in 2010 that he didn't have before, and I think the I-formation offense will actually suit him better than the spread.  Shaw does well when he's able to run straight ahead.  Vision and cuts are not his strong suit, but run an iso or a power up the middle and he could be long gone if his blockers do their jobs.

Prediction: Backup running back; 75 carries, 400 yards