Review of 2007 Recruiting: Cornerbacks

Donovan Warren

THE ROSTER
Doug Dutch, RS Jr.
Morgan Trent, RS Jr.
Brandon Harrison, Jr.
Zion Babb, RS Fr.

Hit the jump to see whom Michigan recruited and how they fared in their careers.

Troy Woolfolk Answers Your Questions

Troy with his dad, former Michigan running back Butch.  (Image via DetNews.com)

Former defensive back, Troy Woolfolk, answered quickly and emphatically when I asked him if his Michigan career went according to expectation.

"Not at all," Troy said.  "I would say it was nothing like I thought it was going to be."

In retrospect, his answer should have been obvious.  During his time at Michigan, Troy experienced a career-altering injury and frequent position changes while acclimating himself to three different head coaches and four separate defensive coordinators.  Of course, Troy made significant contributions both in the locker room and on the field, despite all of the unpredictability and adversity.  He finished his Michigan career with 91 tackles, five pass breakups, and 45 game appearances, including 23 as a starter.  He was recently kind enough to take some time out of his evening to reflect on his career, talk about his future, and answer many reader questions.

Being the son of Butch:  "It put a lot of pressure on me.  Everybody knows he was extremely good, and they would think that his son would go and do the same thing.  But it was also good because he was able to give advice because he had been down the same road.  And he got hurt as well, so he walked me through that and helped me keep a level head."

Coming to Michigan:  "I really didn't have an interest in coming to Michigan initially.  I thought I was going to stay in Texas with all the variety of schools there, or possibly Nebraska.  But right around the time I was thinking about signing, Michigan had a camp.  And he [Butch Woolfolk] was like, 'Just go check it out and see how you like it.'  And when I went to the camp, that's when I fell in love with the atmosphere in Ann Arbor and the coaches.  And at the end of the camp, Lloyd Carr offered me on the spot, and it was kind of a spontaneous decision, so I just went with it.  It's kind of funny because a week before that, I wasn't even considering Michigan and then a week later I became a Wolverine."

Switching between corner and safety:  "It helped me with the knowledge part of the game. . . . But I think it also hurt me because I never got the chance to craft the art of playing either of those two positions.  So like I was never really comfortable in my corner stance nor comfortable being back there at safety.  I even played some nickel, so I never really got comfortable because I was always switching. . . . I preferred corner because it was much easier.  With corner you're just worried about one guy whereas with safety, you have to scan the whole field, see if it's run or pass, call calls.  So I'd say corner, even though it's one of the most physically demanding positions.  I'd rather do that than think; I just want to play football."

Constant coaching changes:  "It's the same thing as with the positions:  it was hard to ever get comfortable with the coaches. . . . [As a player] you have to allow yourself to be coached, and it's hard to do that with someone you're not comfortable with and not trusting - which is why I think when Rich Rod was here we had a lot of trust issues and a lot of individuals on the field who didn't want to listen to the coach and didn't think he knew what he was talking about. . . . When Coach Hoke got here, he got a sense of trust already installed in us because he was already a coach at Michigan, and he was more able to connect with the players. . . . The main difference between the coaching staffs is that Coach Hoke stresses physicality.  We would do drills that had nothing to do with football, but just to see the toughness in the player.  We'd do this one drill where there was just this towel on a mat.  And at the beginning there're two people holding it, and one person had to eventually take it from the other person.  It gets really rough down there; people get bloody noses and stuff.  It teaches you into becoming a man and how to hold yours. . . . [If Coach Hoke came to Michigan in 2008], we probably would have won a National Championship in 2011."

The injury:  "I feel like I either didn't properly rehab it or came back too early because throughout the whole [2011] season, it was giving me problems.  I just knew it wasn't how it used to be, and it's just really unfortunate because I was in the best shape of my life before that happened. . . . In the Dallas [Cowboys] camp, we did two-a-days, and on the first practice everything was good, but on the second practice it got fatigued and sore, and the more I practice on it, the stiffer it gets."

The future:  "Right now Plan A is to use my Michigan degree to get a job. I'm still working out and keeping football on the back burner so that if my ankle ever does get right again then maybe, but right now that's the B Plan."

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2012 breakout Michigan player:  "Jake Ryan.  He's extremely athletic.  He's fast for his size, too."

Most impressive Michigan teammate:  "Mario Manningham.  To watch that boy play was crazy.  He's always finding some way to get open.  To see someone that quick and that fast and that athletic is just a crazy thing.  I'd say he's the best athlete I've seen since I've been at Michigan."

Most difficult player to tackle:  "The only one I can really think about is the Iowa running back this year (Marcus Coker).  You needed to get some help to bring that boy down."

Ask a Question: Troy Woolfolk

Texas native and former secondary starter Troy Woolfolk has volunteered his time for an interview. If you have any topics or questions that you would like addressed, post them in the comments section, and I'll try to get to them.

AnnArbor.com: Troy Woolfolk listens to father before joining Lions

Emma Glover

Troy Woolfolk is a Detroit Lion for now.  He didn't have the greatest career at Michigan, but the Lions might be able to use any help in the defensive backfield that they can get.

Troy Woolfolk, Dallas Cowboy

Congratulations to defensive back and Texas native Troy Woolfolk, who agreed to a deal with the Dallas Cowboys as an undrafted free agent immediately following the NFL Draft.

2012 NFL Draft Preview: Michigan-style

Mike Martin will probably be the first Wolverine drafted, but not until Friday night

Last year saw only linebacker Jonas Mouton and offensive tackle Steve Schilling get drafted, both by the San Diego Chargers.  It's no sure thing that Michigan will beat that number this year, especially now that tight end Kevin Koger suffered an Achilles injury.  Here's a look at the Wolverines who are eligible for the draft:

Mike Martin, DT
Martin is the likely top choice out of Michigan.  He's 6'1 3/8", 306 lbs. and ran a 4.86 forty yard dash at the NFL Combine.  He also put up 36 repetitions on the 225 lb. bench press.  Martin is too undersized to play nose tackle in the NFL, but I think he can play as a defensive end in a 3-4 look or as a 3-tech defensive tackle in a 4-3 defense.  Martin is pretty quick and uses leverage very well, and best of all, he's a hard worker with a good motor.  I don't know if Martin will be a Pro Bowler, but he could have a ten-year career.
Projection: 3rd round to Chargers

David Molk, C
Molk is 6'0 7/8", 298 lbs. and ran a 5.2 forty.  The general knock on Molk is that he's not very big, which is true.  He is very quick, though, and excelled in the zone blocking system run by Rich Rodriguez from 2008-2010.  Molk looks like an NFL backup, but one of the problems with him will be that he doesn't offer any position flexibility - he's a center and that's it.  Lots of teams like their backup centers to be able to be plugged in at guard, too.  I doubt anyone's going to hand Molk a starting center job, but he could be brought in as the heir apparent to a veteran center or to work in for a zone running team.
Projection: 5th round to Texans

Junior Hemingway, WR
Hemingway is 6'0 7/8", 225 lbs., and ran a 4.51 forty yard dash at the NFL Combine, which is much faster than I expected him to run.  Hemingway doesn't play that fast, and his real strength seems to be the timing on his jump balls and his ability to outmuscle opposing receivers.  For a receiver with just average height, 225 lbs. is a lot.  Hemingway struggled with staying healthy early in his career, and his inability to get separation consistently limit him to being a possession receiver at the next level.
Projection: 6th round to Bears

Ryan Van Bergen, DE
Van Bergen is a 6'4 1/2", 290 lb. defensive end with a 4.99 forty.  He's a high character guy who has a little bit of surprising athleticism.  He lacks the pass rush abilities to make a star-level impact at the next level, but he could be an Aaron Smith-like defensive end for a 3-4 team or a left/strongside end for a 4-3 team.  I think he might be able to play for five or six years, but his ceiling is probably a journeyman type of career.
Projection: Undrafted

Kevin Koger, TE
Koger measured in at 6'3 3/4" and 253 lbs. with a 4.8 forty.  He was borderline draftable before hurting his Achilles, so I sincerely doubt whether he'll get picked.  Koger has decent size and speed, but he's not a particularly good runner after the catch and his hands are a bit shaky.  He might be able to be a second or third tight end for someone, but I don't think he'll ever be a starter.
Projection: Undrafted

Other undrafted players: WR Kelvin Grady, OT Mark Huyge, WR Martavious Odoms, RB Michael Shaw, CB Troy Woolfolk

2011 Season Grades: Defense

I'm sure this comes as no surprise, but Jordan Kovacs will be Michigan's top returning defender, according to my grades
(image via Maize and Blue Nation)

Over the last three games of Michigan's season, I took the time to grade the defense.  For individual games, you can look at the grades for Nebraska, Ohio State, and Virginia Tech.  The following shows each player's cumulative grade:

GRADES
MMartin: +36
RVanBergen: +24
JKovacs: +21
JRyan: +16
KDemens: +12
FClark: +11
WHeininger: +5
CAvery: +4
CRoh: +3
BBeyer: +1
JBlack: +1
WCampbell: +1
DMorgan: +1
JFurman: 0
DHollowell: 0
JVanSlyke: 0
QWashington: 0
MJones: -1
RTaylor: -1
NBrink: -2
BHawthorne: -2
TGordon: -2
BCountess: -3
TWoolfolk: -3
JFloyd: -16

I don't think it's any coincidence that defensive linemen seem to rocket to the top of the grading scale, while defensive backs linger toward the bottom.  By the nature of the sport of football (and the angles that television uses), defensive linemen and linebackers are more involved in the game.  And when the ball is in the air, roughly 60% of the time it's going to result in a completion and an angry defensive back.

Obviously, this three-game sample is not indicative of the entire season.  For example, J.T. Floyd's best game was probably against Illinois, which isn't a game I graded.  On the flip side, Frank Clark ended up with a +11 largely because he was outstanding in the Virginia Tech game.

2012 Players All-Star Classic

Cornerback/safety Troy Woolfolk will be participating in the
Players All-Star Classic on February 4

The Players All-Star Classic will be played in Little Rock, AR, at 4:00 p.m. on February 4.  Cornerback Troy Woolfolk (spelled "Woolfork" on the PASC roster) will be playing for the North, and linebacker Marell Evans has received an invitation to play as well, but he has not yet accepted.

Here's a list of other players from around the country who might be of interest to Michigan fans:

NORTH
TE Garrett Celek - Michigan State
DT Erik Lattimore - Penn State
WR Derek Moye - Penn State
CB Troy Woolfolk - Michigan

SOUTH
WR Jarrett Boykin - Virginia Tech
OG Jaymes Brooks - Virginia Tech
WR Toney Clemons - Colorado*
OT Blake DeChristopher - Virginia Tech
OT Taylor Dever - Notre Dame
S Eddie Whitley - Virginia Tech

*Played for Michigan in 2008-09 before transferring

Defensive Backs Preview: Michigan vs. Virginia Tech

This is Jayron Hosley (#20).  I bet #41 is gonna catch him.

MICHIGAN
Starters: Redshirt junior J.T. Floyd (6'0", 185 lbs.) started 11 games at cornerback; he was named All-Big Ten Honorable Mention after recording 45 tackles, 8 pass breakups, 2 interceptions, and 1 forced fumble.  True freshman cornerback Blake Countess (5'10", 176 lbs.) started the final 5 games of the season; he has made 36 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 6 pass breakups, and 1 forced fumble.  Fifth year senior Troy Woolfolk (6'0", 191 lbs.) starts at free safety after beginning the year as the starting cornerback; he has notched 29 tackles and 2 pass breakups on the year.  Redshirt junior Jordan Kovacs (6'0", 197 lbs.) started 11 games at strong safety; he ended the regular season with 64 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 1 interception, 1 pass breakup, 1 fumble recovery, and 2 forced fumbles.
Backups: Redshirt sophomore Thomas Gordon (5'11", 208 lbs.) started 9 games and arguably should have held his starting job over Woolfolk at free safety; Gordon made 59 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 1 interception, 2 pass breakups, 4 fumble recoveries, and 2 forced fumbles.  Sophomore cornerback Courtney Avery (5'11", 173 lbs.) started 2 games at nickel corner; on the season he has 24 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 1/2 a sack, 2 interceptions, 3 pass breakups, 1 forced fumble, and 2 fumble recoveries (1 returned for an 83-yard touchdown).

VIRGINIA TECH
Starters: Junior cornerback Jayron Holsey (5'10", 171 lbs.) started 12 games at cornerback and was named Second Team All-ACC; he made 59 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 3 interceptions, and 8 pass breakups. The other starting corner will probably be Cris Hill (5'11", 180 lbs.), a fifth year senior who has 5 starts; Hill has 33 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 interception, and 6 pass breakups.  Free safety Antone Exum (6'0", 220 lbs.) was All-ACC Honorable Mention; he has made 85 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 interception, and 10 pass breakups.  Senior rover Eddie Whitley (6'1", 200 lbs.) was named Second Team All-ACC; he has 78 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and 2 interceptions on the year.
Backups: Part-time cornerback Kyle Fuller was discussed in the linebackers preview, since he will likely start at weakside linebacker; he's essentially a nickel corner.  Redshirt freshman cornerback Detrick Bonner (6'0", 189 lbs.) is the only other significant contributor in the defensive backfield; he started two games at cornerback and has 26 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and 1 interception on the year.

THE TAKEAWAY
Going purely by accolades, J.T. Floyd is Michigan's best defensive back, and even he could only manage honorable mention when it came to all-conference selections.  Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has two or three All-ACC Second Teamers in the backfield, depending on where you place Kyle Fuller.  Holsey himself has more career interceptions as a junior (12) than the entirety of the Michigan defensive backfield (10).

As for team rankings, it's somewhat equal.  Virginia Tech is #17 in pass efficiency defense and #39 in pass defense, while Michigan is #36 in pass efficiency defense and #17 in pass defense.  It helps the Hokies that their front seven (and nickel corners) get after the quarterback and are #11 nationally in sacks.

However, the individual numbers suggest that Virginia Tech has the better defensive backfield.  Their starters have the edge in interceptions (7 to 3) and tackles for loss (27 to 17), as well as all-conference selections.  Holsey is a better cover corner than anyone Michigan has at this point, and the rest of Michigan's secondary doesn't make up the difference.

Advantage: Virginia Tech

Michigan vs. Ohio State Grades: Defense

Desmond Morgan struggled with Braxton Miller's speed but otherwise looks like a solid player for the Wolverines

I once again worked out some grades for Michigan's defense against OSU (see also: Nebraska).  Grades for each play ranged from +3 to -3 for good/bad reads, filling/missing assignments, and physical superiority/inferiority.

GRADES
MMartin: +10 . . . Not as dominant as in previous games, but doesn't get beaten - ever
RVanBergen: +8 . . . More big plays than Martin, but got out of rush lane a couple times
WHeininger: +6 . . . Physically overmatched, but slanting helped him be effective
KDemens: +5 . . . Solid tackler who doesn't give ground
JKovacs: +5 . . . Decent day but took a late hit penalty
CAvery: +3 . . . Consistently solid and then made a huge pick to seal the game
JBlack: +2 . . . Nice play near goal line to keep his feet and chase down Braxton Miller
TGordon: +2 . . . Beaten in pass coverage but made some nice tackles in open field
DMorgan: +2 . . . Usually in position but not fast enough to keep up with Miller.  Future MIKE?
WCampbell: +1 . . . Didn't play much but held his ground when he did
CRoh: +1 . . . Had some nice pass rushes but big mistake on Miller's TD run
JRyan: +1 . . . OSU ran away from him most of the game
BCountess: 0 . . . Got lucky on an overthrow, but mostly tight coverage
NBrink: -1 . . . Unfair to be matched up against Mike Adams but got blown off the ball
MJones: -1 . . . Just isn't very fast or aggressive
TWoolfolk: -5 . . . Seemed to make some bad reads
JFloyd: -10 . . . Beaten deep a couple times, missed tackle on Dan Herron's TD run

CONCLUSIONS
It sure seemed like defensive coordinator Greg Mattison was willing to take a lot of risks in this game, in hopes that Braxton Miller would make some freshman mistakes.  He did, but not a lot.  It looked like Mattison realized that his defensive line had been playing extremely well for the last several weeks and his game plan revolved around them dominating the game.  The starters combined for a +25 grade with Craig Roh being the weak link.

DeVier Posey is a great deal better than J.T. Floyd and Blake Countess.  There's no way around it.  Michigan doesn't have anyone who can handle him on the regular, so it might have been a good idea to try to force Miller to scramble and look to check down.  Miller probably played his best game of the season when it comes to throwing the ball, because they put almost the entire game on his shoulders.

OSU tried to take advantage of freshman weakside linebacker Desmond Morgan, but he held up pretty well.  Morgan was too slow in the open field to catch Miller a couple times, but it's no surprise that an inside linebacker is going to be at a disadvantage against a guy like him.  Otherwise, Morgan made some excellent plays inside and blew up fullback Zach Boren a couple times.  He might lack the athleticism to stay at WILL for his entire career at Michigan, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him slide over and replace Demens in 2013.

Looking Back at My Predictions...

This girl approves of my pre-season predictions.

It's always interesting to me to look back at my predictions from the beginning of the season.  Some were alarmingly accurate, others not so much.

A few highlights:

Leading rusher: I picked Denard Robinson to have 900 yards, which was too few yards (he has 1,163 while Fitzgerald Toussaint has 1,011) but the right guy.

Leading receiver: I picked Junior Hemingway to have 1,000 yards.  Again, the right guy but a ways off on the yardage total (he has 636).

Leading tackler: I picked Kenny Demens to have 100.  He currently has 86 and has an outside shot to get to 100 in the bowl game.

Leading sacker: I picked Roh to have 7.  This probably won't happen unless he has a monster bowl game.  Roh has 4 but Ryan Van Bergen currently has 5.

Leading interceptor: I picked Kovacs to have 3.  He only has 1.  Courtney Avery and J.T. Floyd are currently tied for the lead with 2.

Breakout offensive player: I picked Jeremy Gallon.  And while Gallon did break out this season (30 catches, 450 yards, 4 touchdowns), I think it's fair to say that Fitzgerald Toussaint had a bigger breakout.

Breakout defensive player: I picked Courtney Avery, who is tied for the team lead in interceptions and returned a fumble for a touchdown.  So that's close.  But I also mentioned Desmond Morgan in the blurb, and he earned a starting job and ranks fifth in tackles.

Most disappointing offensive player: I picked Roy Roundtree, who had over 900 yards last season but only had 18 receptions for 345 yards and 2 touchdowns this year.  I can't think of anyone else who was disappointing on offense.

Most disappointing defensive player: I picked Troy Woolfolk.  Woolfolk got a lot of hype prior to the season (from me included) because of his solid play in 2009, but I had a feeling that he would be just a guy this year.  He's currently tied for 11th in tackles and didn't have a hand in any turnovers, so I think he probably counts as most disappointing.  But he was nursing injuries for most of the season, so we didn't see the best of him, unfortunately.

Michigan 40, Ohio State 34

Denard Robinson made people look silly on this 41-yard touchdown run.
(image via CBS)

This was Denard's best game.  Ever.  I take back all the negative things I ever said about Denard Robinson.  He's spectacular.  I want to have his children.  In all seriousness, though, the guy was 14-for-17 for 167 yards and 3 touchdowns with zero interceptions; he also carried the ball 26 times for 170 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The only flaw in his game was the fumble (put the ball in your outside hand!), but he made throws in this game that he hasn't made consistently in his entire career - his 28-yard pass to Drew Dileo was thrown perfectly.  That was a great way to cap the regular season.

The replay official was Woody Hayes, Jr.  There was no way in hell that Fitzgerald Toussaint's touchdown run late in the fourth quarter should have been reversed.  It was called a touchdown on the field and, at worst, there was no good angle to reverse the call.  Officials are supposed to have "indisputable evidence" to overturn calls, and if it takes 10 minutes to review the play, then it's obviously disputable.  That's not the fault of the officials on the field - it's the anonymous guy in the booth.  That guy needs to be reprimanded by the league.  Anyway, that play would have put Michigan up by 9 points (presumably 10 after the extra point) with about two minutes remaining, and Ohio State only had one timeout left.  It would have taken a miracle for OSU to score 10+ points in under two minutes; all it would have taken is a little bit of luck for them to overcome the six-point deficit that resulted.  Luckily, Courtney Avery saved the day.

What happened to Michigan's defense?  I absolutely did not expect Ohio State to have that much success offensively.  I figured Braxton Miller would get a good chunk of yards by scrambling or on designed runs, and he did (16 carries, 100 yards, 1 touchdown).  Michigan shut down running back Dan Herron (15 carries, 37 yards, 1 touchdown).  But there were wide open receivers running all over the place, and Miller actually hit some of them nicely.  I can't even just pick on one guy - Blake Countess, J.T. Floyd, Thomas Gordon, Jordan Kovacs, and Troy Woolfolk all got beat on deep passes.  Miller finished with 14 completions in 25 attempts for 2 touchdowns and just the 1 interception at the end of the game.  I was high on Miller when Rich Rodriguez was recruiting him out of Wayne High School in Huber Heights, OH, and he's going to be tough to deal with for the next few seasons.

The game experience was awesome.  It was great weather for being the end of November.  The tailgaters and frat houses were partying hard.  (Thanks to the tailgaters who let me join them, by the way.)  I only saw one classless encounter between a Michigan fan and an Ohio State fan, and both of them were drunk and stumbling.  The only downer the entire day was that the Union hockey team was sitting near me and kept complaining that people in front of them were standing.  Usually "down in front!" is reserved for old people, but these 19- to 22-year-old kids were trying to rest their legs for this afternoon's game against the Wolverines, I guess.

Fitzgerald Toussaint made dudes look silly.  If you are one-on-one with Toussaint in open space, you might as well lay down and take a nap.  He had 20 carries for 120 yards and 1 nullified touchdown, and that was a pretty solid defense he was up against.  Between Robinson and Toussaint, Michigan had 46 carries for 290 yards.  Yowzers.

Ten wins.  I expected the offense to be pretty good, and they've put some points on the board.  I expected the defense to be solid but unspectacular, and they've been on the verge of spectacular.  Aside from giving up 34 points to a mediocre Ohio State offense, the defense has been awesome this year.  I did not expect Michigan to end up with ten wins on the season, and they still have a chance for an eleventh.  The coaches and the players have done an excellent job overall and have played with a lot of hustle and intensity.  It's been a great season, and Michigan seems to be on the upswing after a few down years.

Go Blue!

Michigan vs. Illinois Awards

Ryan Van Bergen (#53) was a force to be reckoned with all night.
(image via MGoBlue.com)

Let's see more of this guy on offense . . . Martavious Odoms.  Odoms was struggling to see the field earlier in the year, partly because he was recovering from a broken bone in his forearm.  It was frustrating to see a key player from the past few seasons end his career by barely seeing the field.  Luckily, that trend appears to be ending.  He got what seemed to be the most playing time of the season against the Illini, when he had 2 receptions for 46 yards, including a 27-yard touchdown reception from Devin Gardner to go up 24-7.  Odoms was also wide open in the endzone early in the game, but Denard Robinson overthrew him.

Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . umm . . . Denard Robinson at quarterback.  Bring on the anger.  Robinson has clearly regressed this season, and I'm not going to blame it entirely on offensive coordinator Al Borges.  Borges hasn't made the same playcalls that allowed Robinson to put up good numbers last season, but much of that is on Robinson's shoulders, too.  He was unable to hit wide open receivers early in the year, and his inability to hit the deep ball has been extremely maddening.  I described Robinson last year as "wildly accurate" because of his throws that would be catchable but wouldn't allow receivers to run after the catch.  There was another fine example on Saturday evening when Robinson hit tight end Kevin Koger down the left sideline, and Koger was so wide open that he had time to stop, catch the ball, get started again . . . and get dragged down at the 2-yard line.  If that's even a decent throw, it's an easy touchdown.  Devin Gardner at least deserves a prolonged look if Robinson isn't getting it done, because Robinson is turnover-prone and his rushing has been disappointing for the last several weeks.

Let's see more of this guy on defense . . . Thomas Gordon.  Gordon has been a turnover machine with 1 interception, 4 fumble recoveries, and 2 forced fumbles on the season.  He's also the team's second-leading tackler, despite coming off the bench for the past two games.  Meanwhile, senior Troy Woolfolk has been inserted at safety despite clearly being unhealthy; Woolfolk has yet to create a turnover in his career.

Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . Troy Woolfolk.  This is obvious, considering the above paragraph.  Woolfolk is hurting the team by playing such significant minutes.  I wish he would have been allowed to get healthier earlier in the season, but he wasn't.  It's pretty apparent that he won't be healthy during the regular season, although hopefully he can get his body right by the bowl game.

Play of the game . . . Jordan Kovacs' forced fumble and Gordon's recovery.  Illinois had just stopped Michigan on the goal line and had some emotional momentum.  Running back Jason Ford popped free for 8 yards up the middle when Kovacs put his facemask on the ball, which fell to the ground while Gordon jumped on it.  If it hadn't been obvious previously, it seemed to me right there that this day just wasn't going to go well for the Illini.

MVP of the game . . . Ryan Van Bergen.  The defensive tackle/end had 7 tackles, 3 tackles for loss (for 28 yards), and 2.5 sacks.  Mike Martin (9 tackles, 1/2 a sack) would be a decent choice, and so would Fitzgerald Toussaint (27 carries, 192 yards, 1 touchdown).  But on a night when Illinois couldn't do anything consistently on defense, in large part because quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase was under pressure, I have to give it to the guy who took him to the ground a few times.

Michigan 31, Illinois 14

This was a common sight on Saturday - Michigan's defensive line swarming the Illinois backfield.
(image via MGoBlue.com)

Thank you Greg Mattison thank you thank you thank you.  For the last few years, people have been making the excuse for Michigan's defense that "It's Jimmys and Joes, not X's and O's."  Yeah . . . well . . . not so much.  Michigan has three freshman starters (Blake Countess, Desmond Morgan, Jake Ryan), a couple former walk-on starters (Jordan Kovacs, Will Heininger), and less experience than the 2008 team.  The difference: they're not being coached by Scott Shafer, Greg Robinson, and Rich Rodriguez.  This still isn't the most talented defense around, but it held Illinois to 30 total yards in the first half, a 50% completion rate, and 1.1 yards per carry for the game.  They also produced 4 sacks, 1 interception, 2 fumble recoveries, and 6 tackles for loss.

J.T. Floyd was okay for once.  One of the frustrating things about Floyd is that he's slow to cover underneath routes and come up to make tackles, but he didn't get beat deep against a receiver that Illinois really wanted to hit deep.  Wide receiver A.J. Jenkins had 8 catches for 103 yards, but the Illini targeted him more than 20 times to get those catches.  That low success rate wasn't entirely due to Floyd - Michigan's defensive line put a lot of pressure on the quarterbacks - but when you get thrown at that much, you've had a decent day by allowing only 8 receptions.  I was disappointed that Floyd didn't take his pick to the house, because he was brought down by a pretty weak tackle attempt by quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase.  But I'm not going to complain too much about a 42-yard interception return.

Those referees were horrible.  How many plays went to the replay booth and were reversed?  Three?  Four?  Whenever the game was stopped for a replay, it was essentially assured that the call on the field would be wrong.  The most egregious error was Illinois running back Jason Ford's fumble (that wasn't a fumble), which was picked up Courtney Avery and returned for a touchdown (even though Avery's knee was down when he grabbed the ball).  The replay booth got the call right, but jeez, the head referee was standing right there  and totally blew both calls.  The one replay that wasn't reversed, which was the tumbling catch by an Illinois receiver, was ruled incomplete on the field but looked to me as if it should  have been reversed.

Fitzgerald Toussaint had a great day.  Illinois eventually figured out that Michigan didn't want to take chances with throwing the ball, and Toussaint still ended up with 27 carries for 192 yards (7.1 yards per attempt).  He's clearly taken over the role as the lead back, and this represented his highest career carry total.  The previous high was 20 when he put up 170 yards against Purdue a couple weeks ago.  Michigan's offensive line didn't have its greatest effort, either, so Toussaint created a lot of those yards on his own.

This looks like the offense to come.  It seemed clear to me early in the game that the coaches didn't trust Denard Robinson to put the ball in the air very much.  The game plan was to run run run the ball.  And that philosophy worked, even though it was largely boring to watch.  The Wolverines only attempted to throw the ball 16 times.  Robinson threw 1 interception and fumbled once when he was sacked (plus another fumble on a quarterback run), and he only played until midway through the third quarter, when he was apparently injured on a pass attempt.  At least against defenses that put the pressure on our jittery quarterbacks, the coaches seem to have decided that they would rather keep the ball in the ground.

Desmond Morgan is a truck.  I thought Morgan had his best game yet this season, not least of all because he destroyed Illinois running back Troy Pollard in the hole while getting blocked.  He might only be a freshman, but he's a thumper.  I wonder if Morgan might eventually move to MIKE when Kenny Demens graduates, but in the meantime, the kid is doing pretty well for a true freshman at the WILL spot.  I have occasionally been frustrated with him getting out of position, but the kid makes tackles when he's in the right spot.  Even with the vaunted linebacker class coming to Ann Arbor in 2012, it's going to be hard to push Morgan off the field.

The defensive line had a hell of a day.  It's hard not to look back and wonder why Michigan couldn't have produced this same kind of effort back in 2008, with guys like Terrance Taylor and Will Johnson in the middle of the line.  The defensive linemen combined for 20 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, and 4 quarterback hurries.  It's rare that a defensive tackle leads the team in tackles, but that's exactly what Mike Martin did with 9 tackles.

Troy Woolfolk argh.  It's hard to complain about the defense much, because they allowed only 14 points and 214 total yards.  But on the play prior to Scheelhaase's 13-yard touchdown run, it was clear that free safety Troy Woolfolk cramped up or pulled a muscle in his leg.  I said the people I was watching the game with, "Get him out of the game.  He's going to cost the team a big play."  Sure enough, on the next play, Scheelhaase busted out and Woolfolk couldn't beat him to the corner of the endzone, and the couch cushion next to me took a beating.  A healthy Woolfolk makes that play.  Meanwhile, backup safety Thomas Gordon - who should be starting - had one less tackle than Woolfolk, added 1 fumble recovery, and broke up a pass.  Woolfolk hasn't been healthy all season, and Michigan missed a chance to rest him earlier in the year.  Now he seems to be playing at 85%, and it's hurting the team.  Gordon is a playmaker who has grabbed 5 turnovers (1 interception, 4 fumble recoveries), while Woolfolk hasn't created even one.

Michigan vs. Minnesota Awards

Didn't you dummies watch the Notre Dame film?  What else is there to do in Minnesota but watch film?
(image via AnnArbor.com)

Let's see more of this guy on offense . . . Thomas Rawls.  The freshman running back (10 carries, 73 yards) is yet another runner who looks better than Stephen Hopkins.  The lower Hopkins goes on the depth chart, the better off Michigan will be.  Fitzgerald Toussaint (11 carries, 108 yards, 1 touchdown) looks like the best back, Vincent Smith is a solid change-of-pace and third down back (5 carries, 27 yards; 3 total touchdowns), and Michael Shaw (8 carries, 60 yards) ran the ball well on Saturday, too.

Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . Hopkins.  It was necessary for #33 to play almost the entire way because starting fullback John McColgan missed the game due to injury.  McColgan has developed into a better blocker this year than he had been previously, and I think he has some value when running out of the I-formation.  Hopkins made a nice catch out of the backfield for 28 yards, but I'm hoping McColgan can return when the schedule gets tougher.

Let's see more of this guy on defense . . . Blake Countess.  The freshman cornerback looks to have surpassed sophomore Courtney Avery.  He's a decent enough tackler and has better coverage skills than Avery or redshirt junior J.T. Floyd.  Countess had 2 pass breakups and 1 forced fumble to go with his 5 tackles.

Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . Troy Woolfolk.  For goodness' sake, let him have a week off.  For the fifth week in a row, Woolfolk left the game due to injury.  He's got a tweaked ankle.  I know he wants to play and I commend him for it, but everybody and their mother knew that Michigan didn't need Woolfolk to beat Minnesota handily.  The coaches had a chance to rest him against Minnesota so he would be available for the two tougher offenses coming up the next two weeks - Northwestern and Michigan State.  Now he's still injured, Northwestern looms as a snake in the grass that could rise up and bite the Wolverines, and Michigan State follows with its dangerous passing game.  There won't be another possible opportunity to rest him until possibly Purdue, three weeks from now.

Play of the game . . . The most exciting play of the game was Devin Gardner's scramble and run.  He bootlegged right into a defender, ran out of an arm tackle, reversed field, juked two defenders, gained about 4 yards up the sideline, and then churned his legs for another 2 or 3 yards after the defense caught up to him.

MVP of the game . . . It's a tough choice between Denard Robinson, Vincent Smith, and Fitzgerald Toussaint.  I'm going to go with Smith, who didn't have a monster day numbers-wise but had a hand in three offensive touchdowns.  His day included 5 carries for 27 yards and 1 touchdown; 1 pass reception for 28 yards and a touchdown; and 1 halfback pass for 17 yards and a touchdown to Drew Dileo.  On top of that, he made a heads up recovery of a Devin Gardner fumble late in the game.

Michigan 35, Notre Dame 31

With about 30 seconds remaining in last night's game and Notre Dame up 31-28, I said to my fellow watchers, "I predicted Notre Dame would win by a score of 31-27.  I don't want  that to be the score, but that was my pick."

I'm glad I was wrong.

That was one of the most exciting games I've seen as a Michigan fan.  It reminded me of the 2004 "Henne to Edwards Game", a victory over MSU in which quarterback Chad Henne chucked the ball up repeatedly to wide receiver Braylon Edwards, who decided to just flat-out win the game for his team.  With Michigan down 17-7 at halftime, I thought to myself, "Well, hopefully Brady Hoke returns to the ways of Lloyd Carr and they become a 'second half team.'"  Uh . . . yep.  The Wolverines scored 28 points in the fourth quarter, including 14 in the final 1:12 to steal a victory from the Irish.

Wow.

Denard Robinson sucks is awesome.  I have to admit there was a time that I thought this was going to be Robinson's worst game as a starter.  Early on he was just plain inaccurate.  Then he became inaccurate and  made poor decisions.  Then he made poor decisions . . . accurately.  Robinson finished the game 11-for-24 for 338 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.  He also carried the ball 16 times for 108 yards and 1 touchdown.  His total of 446 yards and 5 touchdowns was excellent, but how he got there was strange.  Through three quarters of football, he was 4-for-14 passing (if that accuracy rate sounds familiarly horrible, that's because it's the same as Michigan's kickers circa 2010) for 136 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions.  In the fourth stanza, Robinson went 8-for-11 for 217 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, plus a recovered Stephen Hopkins fumble that he turned into a touchdown.

Notre Dame is awesome sucks.  I do think Notre Dame is an improved team this season, but they have nothing to show for it.  They won their final four games in 2010 and had two opportunities for victories to open 2011, but they blew both chances.  They remind me of Michigan from the past couple years - able to move the ball, but turnover prone; the Irish have 9 turnovers in two games.  Quarterback Tommy Rees looked excellent at times, but he also threw an ill advised pick to cornerback J.T. Floyd, failed to see Jordan Kovacs dropping back for another interception, and let the ball slip from his hand in the red zone late in the game, a fumble that defensive lineman Ryan Van Bergen recovered.  Overall, Rees was 27-for-39 for 315 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Receiver Michael Floyd caught 13 of those passes for 159 yards, but failed to turn any of those receptions into scores.

Thank goodness for Junior Hemingway.  There were lots of "heroes" in the game - Robinson, Jeremy Gallon, Roy Roundtree, Jordan Kovacs, Matt Wile, etc.  But none were more important than Hemingway, whose amazing body control saved Robinson's ass time after time.  Robinson completed only 46% of his passes on the day, but two of his eleven completions were amazing catches by Hemingway for big plays.  His first of the day was a 43-yard TD reception on which he leapt high in the air, came down with the ball, and blasted his way through a Notre Dame defensive back to just barely reach the pylon.  His second was on a horrible decision to throw the ball into double coverage, when he stopped and jumped high in the air once again.  His third was on a crossing route when he kept running despite presumably seeing Robinson in the grasp of a defender; Robinson made his best throw of the night, which Hemingway caught and turned into a 77-yard gain before being tackled inside the 10-yard line.  He ended the night with 3 receptions, 165 yards, and 1 touchdown.  Nobody else on Michigan's team can do what Hemingway does.

The offense is still explosive.  I hate hate hate it when people like Mark May question Al Borges' ability to use Denard Robinson effectively.  Michigan's offense is just fine when Robinson makes accurate throws.  When Robinson is inaccurate, the offense suffers.  But insert any quarterback's name in that previous sentence and the comment holds true.  Robinson made a few bad decisions in the first half (throwing an ill advised screen pass to Vincent Smith that was picked, throwing into double coverage, tossing jump balls to the 5'8" Jeremy Gallon, etc.), but there were wide open receivers that Robinson repeatedly missed.  He doesn't throw an accurate deep ball, and that was apparent last year under "genius" Rich Rodriguez, too.  Robinson got a lot of yardage from bubble screens and short throws last year, but with teams stacking the line of scrimmage and daring Michigan to "pass to win," those hitches and bubble screens just aren't going to be there.  The bubble screen worked well for Notre Dame because Michigan was backed off in fear of Michael Floyd.

What happened to Michigan's defensive line?  I knew Notre Dame's offensive line would be pretty solid, but so far the defensive linemen have produced very little through two games.  They had 8 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, and 2 fumble recoveries in last night's contest, but both fumble recoveries were more a function of being lucky than good.  Starters Craig Roh and Will Heininger didn't register on the stat sheet, and the only production from the backups came from 3 tackles by Jibreel Black and a fumble recovery by William Campbell.  Meanwhile, the team didn't register a single sack despite 39 pass attempts, and running back Cierre Wood gashed the Wolverines for 134 yards and 5.4 yards a pop.  The linebackers and defensive backs have been outplaying the defensive line in Michigan's two games.

Pass protection good, run blocking bad.  Except for a Dan Fox blitz that resulted in a quick sack, the offensive line protected Robinson very well.  He did scramble around at times, but usually that was after hanging around in the pocket for a while and not getting rid of the ball.  On the other hand, Michigan's running backs got zero blocking whatsoever.  They combined for 8 carries, 13 yards, and 1 fumble.  Yikes.  Fitzgerald Toussaint apparently suffered an injury and couldn't play, and despite having -3 yards, Michael Shaw looked the best of the bunch after he was walled off by defenders and still had the speed to get to the outside.  Hopkins is simply too slow to be a feature back, and he fumbled on the goal line.  Luckily, Robinson was there to pick up the ball and score.  Michigan could also use a new short yardage play, aside from the dive out of a single back formation.

Wanted: A Healthy Troy Woolfolk.  With Eastern Michigan on the horizon, Woolfolk might get a week to rest up a bit.  That would be excellent news for a defensive backfield that lacks size and/or coverage ability.  J.T. Floyd and Courtney Avery were both overmatched by Michael Floyd, which is understandable since they're both smaller and perhaps slower.  I thought Avery had a decent day despite being flagged on a questionable pass interference call, but J.T. Floyd was picked on all night.  He had a couple nice plays, but he's just not starter quality.  Woolfolk played sporadically in spite of an ankle injury - which he noticeably aggravated a couple times - and a hand injury that forced him to wear a cast.

Wow.  I wish I could have been there.  If I lived in Michigan, there's no doubt I would have shelled out the money to attend.  That was the best Michigan crowd I think I've seen, and at 114,804, it was the largest in football history, too.  I thought ESPN did an excellent job of encapsulating the enormity of the crowd and the game.  Those in attendance will probably remember that game forever.

Go Blue!

Preview: Michigan vs. Notre Dame

White shorts?  I hope this picture was taken before Labor Day.

Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense

Michigan's receivers didn't have a chance to look particularly great against Western Michigan last week, with only one big play (Junior Hemingway's 37-yard reception) coming in the passing game.  There are some capable receivers, though, and Jeremy Gallon looks like he's become a more frequent target this season.  In last year's matchup, Denard Robinson was able to use the short passing game on the way to a 24-for-40 day with 244 yards and 1 touchdown.  The Fighting Irish played pretty well on defense this past Saturday in allowing only 128 yards passing and 4.3 yards per attempt.  I expect Robinson to throw a lot of short passes this Saturday, too, while taking a couple shots downfield.  The Irish have some solid defensive backs and Robinson's downfield accuracy is mediocre at best, so any passing yardage will be hard earned.

Advantage: Michigan

Rush Offense vs. Notre Dame Rush Defense

Michigan's top two running backs (Michael Shaw and Vincent Smith) combined for 12 carries and 29 yards last year, even though the Irish were keying on quarterback Robinson (28 carries, 258 yards, 2 touchdowns).  Brady Hoke and Al Borges plan to run Robinson less this season, which means he won't be getting 28 carries, and I still have my doubts about whether they can be as effective at creating running lanes for the fleet-footed quarterback.  If Michigan wants to run the ball, they seem to have two options: either run Robinson a lot and hope that he breaks one, or line up in the I-formation and pound the ball.  The latter takes away some of Robinson's strengths, and the former might get Robinson dinged.  If I'm the Notre Dame defensive coordinator, I stack the box and make Robinson beat me with his arm.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Pass Defense vs. Notre Dame Pass Offense

Newly minted starting quarterback Tommy Rees played about one half of football on Saturday and threw for 296 yards and 2 touchdowns.  He also threw 2 interceptions, but that's beside the point . . . which is that Rees could very well carve up Michigan's secondary.  Last year starter Dayne Crist was 13/25 for 277 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception when he left the game with an injury.  And while Michigan's secondary has improved since then (no more Cam Gordon at free safety, for example), cornerback Troy Woolfolk's sprained ankle suffered in the Western Michigan game might prove to be a problem.  Wide receiver Michael Floyd is a threat to win the Biletnikoff Award as the nation's top receiver and had 12 receptions for 154 yards and 2 touchdowns last week.  Michigan has the options of covering the 6'3", 224-pounder with a slightly hobbled Woolfolk, a diminutive Courtney Avery, or a physically inferior J.T. Floyd.  The Irish also have an effective tight end in Tyler Eifert and a pass receiving threat out of the backfield in Cierre Wood.  Defensive coordinator Greg Mattison will likely have to call some creative blitzes to get to the quarterback, which will leave somebody on an island with Floyd . . . and that could get ugly.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Rush Defense vs. Notre Dame Rush Offense

The Wolverines' rush defense didn't look particularly effective against WMU's offense.  While they didn't allow any huge plays, they also got gashed several times on misdirection.  If linebacker Cam Gordon returns this week from his back injury, that could help keep some of the young guys off the field, but I'm not holding out much hope for Michigan to stuff the run.  Notre Dame running backs combined for 22 carries and 109 yards in last season's matchup, and running back Cierre Wood is coming off of a 21-carry, 104-yard performance against South Florida.  I don't expect Wood to have a career day against Michigan, but it would not surprise me to see him replicate last week's game.  With Notre Dame's ability to pass the ball and throw to Michael Floyd on the outside, that might prevent Greg Mattison from allowing the safeties to poke their nose up into the box.
Advantage: Notre Dame


Predictions

• Denard Robinson throws his first two interceptions of the year
• Robinson throws for 225 yards but gets "bottled up" for less than 80 yards rushing
• Michael Floyd goes for 120 yards and 1 touchdown
• We see Michigan's first trick play of the season
• Final score: Notre Dame 31, Michigan 27

Michigan 34, Western Michigan 10

Jordan Kovacs, form tackler extraordinaire, gives Western Michigan quarterback Alex Carder a tour of his facemask

Well, that was weird.  I've never seen a Michigan game called due to weather.  Maybe that's because it's never happened before this weekend.  Like every other Michigan fan, I wanted to see the game continue.  These games against MAC teams are typically when you see awesome plays and great statistics - witness the 94-yard interception return by Brandon Herron, the 44-yard touchdown run by Michael Shaw, etc.  By the time the game was canceled with 1:16 remaining in the third quarter, Michigan had taken control and was likely bound for a couple more touchdowns and some more big plays on defense.  Safety is the most important thing, and I don't question the decision to cancel the game . . . but if someone ends up just short of 1,000 yards rushing or 1,000 yards receiving or some other significant statistical benchmark, we might look back at September 3 and wonder what could have been.

Al Borges isn't dumb.  People everywhere were concerned that offensive coordinator Al Borges would try to turn Denard Robinson into a quarterback who takes every snap from under center, but that simply wasn't the case.  It looked as though roughly 75% of the offensive formations were shotgun.  It looks as though Michigan was more likely to pass from the shotgun and run from the "I" but that could change as the season progresses.  Additionally, the offense isn't as high speed as it has been for the past few seasons under Rich Rodriguez, but it was still effective.  Michigan huddles now, which took some time to adjust to since I got used to watching Rodriguez's teams.  But the Wolverines averaged 7.5 yards per play against WMU, whereas they had only 5.7 against UConn in last season's opener.

Hello, Brandon Herron.  I don't know where the hell you came from, but I'm glad you're here.  I really thought Herron would be a backup and special teamer based on his play in the past and his multiple position switches over the past couple seasons, but he was in the right place at the right time and made some plays.  Despite being listed second on the depth chart at weakside linebacker, he started the game at WILL, made 8 tackles, returned a batted pass 94 yards for a touchdown, and picked up an Alex Carder fumble for a 29-yard touchdown.  It was the longest interception return in Michigan program history and the first time any defensive player scored twice in the same game.  All that came from a fifth year senior who previously had 34 career tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 pass breakup, and 1 fumble recovery.  Herron has always been considered a bit of a physical freak who lacks great instincts, but his instincts looked pretty good on Saturday . . . and nobody really came close to catching the 221 lb. linebacker from behind, either.

Special teams still suck.  Apparently it doesn't matter who coaches the special teams, whether it's an offensive or defensive guy, etc.  Some Michigan fans hated that defensive backs coach Tony Gibson was in charge of special teams because he was one of only four defensive coaches under Rodriguez.  Now an offensive guy (tight ends coach Dan Ferrigno) is coaching special teams, and they're still bad.  Kick returner Kelvin Grady doesn't look like anything special and made a bad decision to leave the endzone.  Brendan Gibbons had a low extra point attempt blocked.  Western Michigan averaged 31 yards per kickoff return and consistently had excellent field position.  Of course, special teams would have looked better if the suspended Will Hagerup were punting.  Freshman Matt Wile averaged 41.0 yards per punt but didn't have great hang time, and he averaged over 65 yards per kickoff, which is better than anyone - Hagerup, Seth Broekhuizen, or Gibbons - did last season.  There's potential there for Wile, but overall the special teams were disappointing.

Greg Mattison is awesome.  Does anyone have any doubt that former defensive coordinator Greg Robinson would have allowed Carder to throw for 350 yards and 4 touchdowns?  Anyone?  It looked like it might be a long day when WMU opened the game with a long drive on which Carder didn't throw a single incompletion on the way to a touchdown.  Michigan's players were confused, and at one point near the goal line, safety Carvin Johnson lined up on the wrong side of the field against a five-wide set, leaving cornerback Courtney Avery alone covering two wideouts.  Avery did an excellent job of splitting the two receivers and blasting the guy who caught the ball at the 1-yard line, but it led to a 1-yard touchdown run a couple plays later.  After that initial drive, though, Michigan's defense settled down.  It's clear that the Wolverines don't have a lot of horses on defense, because they weren't beating MAC players in one-on-one matchups often enough.  But they did come up with timely big plays (Jordan Kovacs' two sacks and a forced fumble, Jake Ryan's batted pass, Herron's two TD returns).  This  is what a "bend but don't break" defense looks like.

Oh no, Troy Woolfolk.  Fifth year senior Troy Woolfolk, playing in his first game since November 2009 against Ohio State, went down with another injury.  After sitting out last season with a dislocated ankle, he was carted off the field in the first quarter with another ankle injury.  Luckily, it sounds like it's only a sprain this time and Brady Hoke said that he could have returned if Michigan needed him, but it looked ominous.  Early in the game, he looked like the aggressive, speedy corner that Michigan lacked all of last season.  His replacement, J.T. Floyd, hasn't changed one bit - he's still too slow to be good.

Wheeee, Michigan running backs!  Neither of Michigan's primary running backs looked fantastic, but it looks like the right guys are playing.  Fitzgerald Toussaint had 11 carries for 80 yards and 2 touchdowns, both of which required a little bit of oomph that not all Michigan backs have had; included in those 11 carries was a 43-yarder.  Meanwhile, Shaw had 4 carries for 54 yards, including a 44-yard touchdown run.  He also looked good on a toss play on which he ran through a tackle.  Vincent Smith (2 carries, 11 yards) looked like a solid change-of-pace back, and Denard Robinson (8 carries, 46 yards) had a decent but unspectacular day running the ball.

It was a win.  Despite the mistakes and the scares, it looks like Michigan got out of the game relatively healthy, they allowed only 10 points, the defense probably gained a little bit of confidence, and the offense looked consistent at the least.  After the 2007 Appalachian State game and the 2008 Toledo loss, I appreciate these wins a little more.

Congratulations, Brady Hoke!  Congratulations to Coach Hoke, who got his first win at Michigan.  Hopefully many more will follow.  Go Blue!

2011 Season Predictions

Hooray for middle linebackers who play like middle linebackers!

Well, it's always fun to take a look back and see how my predictions panned out, so here's a link to my 2010 Season Predictions.

And now for this year's picks:


Leading Rusher
I'm going to rescind my earlier faith in Michael Cox and guess that Michael Shaw will be the Wolverines' leading running back rusher in 2011.  Denard Robinson would be the obvious pick if Rich Rodriguez were still coaching, but Brady Hoke wants Robinson to run less.  It's basically a crapshoot with Thomas Rawls, Michael Cox, Fitzgerald Toussaint, and Shaw all vying for the starting RB role.  Between injuries Shaw will run for 700 yards and a couple other guys will have a few hundred apiece . . . but Denard should take the lead by a fairly small margin.
Prediction: Denard Robinson, 900 yards

Leading Receiver
The change in offense throws a wrench into my guess here, too.  I think Roy Roundtree is a very good receiver, but I also think he's going to struggle more now that he's been moved from the slot to the outside.  The only other serious threat to lead the team is Junior Hemingway, who might be derailed by injury like usual.  I guess I'll go with Hemingway and pray he stays healthy.
Prediction: Junior Hemingway, 1000 yards

Leading Tackler
I'm pretty confident that middle linebacker Kenny Demens will lead the team in tackles, provided his shoulder injury doesn't flare up again.  He had 82 last season and finished third on the team, despite only starting for half the year.  Safety Jordan Kovacs was second last year with 116 total tackles, but I think - and hope - that those numbers will drop significantly.
Prediction: Kenny Demens, 100 tackles

Leading Sacker
Considering that Michigan's sack totals have dropped to 41% of what they were in 2006, I have to think that the new defensive scheme will cause at least a small jump.  Of the defensive linemen and linebackers who graduated last year (Greg Banks, Renaldo Sagesse, Adam Patterson, Jonas Mouton, Obi Ezeh), none were great pass rushers.  The best rushers return (Ryan Van Bergen with 9 career sacks, Mike Martin with 6.5, and Craig Roh with 2.5) with some youthful potential in the forms of redshirt freshman Jake Ryan, sophomore Jibreel Black, and true freshman Frank Clark.  With all those blitzers and rushers potentially getting to the quarterback, weakside end Craig Roh should lead the team in sacks. 
Prediction: Craig Roh, 7 sacks

Leading Interceptor
Last year's interception leaders were cornerback James Rogers (since graduated) and free safety-turned-linebacker Cameron Gordon.  So those two are out, since linebackers rarely lead teams in interceptions.  That leaves us with a crew of defensive backs who have a combined four interceptions (Jordan Kovacs has 3, J.T. Floyd has 1).  Cornerbacks Troy Woolfolk and Courtney Avery have shown an ability to cover but not make big plays, and Floyd . . . well . . . just doesn't look like a very good cornerback.  It looks like Thomas Gordon will start at strong safety and he hasn't had a chance to show his pass coverage abilities yet since he played linebacker last year.  So it looks like Jordan Kovacs is my man.
Prediction: Jordan Kovacs, 3 interceptions

All-Big Ten First Team
Prediction: Denard Robinson, Mike Martin

Leading Scorer (non-QB, non-kicker)
Prediction: Michael Shaw

Breakout Offensive Player
This is a tough choice because almost every offensive starter returns.  Kevin Koger should see a significant leap in production, but he'll be a four-year starter.  I have a hard time picking a four-year starter as a breakout player.  So I'm going to go with Jeremy Gallon.  Gallon is #2 on the depth chart at wide receiver and should see some time in the slot in three- and four-wide sets.  He's quick, fast, and thickly built, and he could be an X-factor if he can hold onto the ball (which he couldn't do last year as a kick/punt returner).
Prediction: Jeremy Gallon

Breakout Defensive Player
I don't foresee anyone on Michigan's defense going from an unknown to an All-American, so "breakout" here has to be looked at from a small-scale perspective.  A few days ago, I picked freshman linebacker Desmond Morgan as a potential breakout player, since he's a frosh and will play at some point this season.  Anybody who starts at weakside linebacker will be a breakout player, really, since all the options are young and inexperienced.  Mike Jones is #1 on the depth chart, although I don't really think he's a playmaker.  I think I'll go with cornerback Courtney Avery.  Avery had a bad year last season, not because he's a bad athlete but because he wasn't ready to play.  He should have redshirted and taken a year to add some size.  Now he's a sophomore with playing experience and he might be the best cover corner on the roster, although true freshman Blake Countess is going to be a good one, too.
Prediction: Courtney Avery

Most Disappointing Offensive Player
Keep in mind that this is my  most disappointing offensive player, as in the one that I think will fall short of my previous expectations.  There was a time when I thought Roy Roundtree was headed toward wearing the #1 jersey.  On top of being a very good slot receiver, he was a good blocker and a playmaker after the catch.  He started to fall off toward the end of last season when he began dropping too many passes, particularly against Wisconsin and Ohio State.  And while he did have over 900 yards receiving last year, many of those receptions came in the middle of the field, an area that he won't roam as often from his new outside receiver position.  He should start this fall and put up decent numbers, but I don't know if the #1 jersey is in his future anymore.
Prediction: Roy Roundtree

Most Disappointing Defensive Player
Just like last year, it's tough to pick someone who's going to be disappointing, because not much is expected from most of the guys on this unit.  The bar has been lowered so much that it's almost impossible for anyone to limbo underneath it.  With that caveat aside, I think Troy Woolfolk is going to disappoint some people a little bit.  Absence makes the heart grow fonder, and many Michigan fans hope that Woolfolk will be Michigan's Savior in the Secondary this season.  He was a solid free safety and cornerback in 2009 before dislocating his ankle prior to the 2010 season, which might have been fortuitous since he preserved his last year of eligibility to play under a coach who actually knows what he's doing.  But Woolfolk has zero interceptions in his career, and while he's a solid tackler with excellent speed, I doubt he'll suddenly be causing turnover after turnover.  I expect continued solid play in the coming months, but nothing spectacular.
Prediction: Troy Woolfolk

The Big Finish

Sept. 3 vs. Western Michigan: WIN.  Michigan's offense ought to be too good for Western Michigan to handle.  Denard Robinson torched them in 2009 for one of his best career highlights, and he'll probably make some more highlights.  MAC teams just can't handle his speed.

Sept. 10 vs. Notre Dame: LOSS.  Notre Dame should have beaten Michigan in 2010, if not for quarterback Dayne Crist getting injured.  This year the Fighting Irish should be better.

Sept. 17 vs. Eastern Michigan: WIN.  The Screaming Eagles are horrible at football.

Sept. 24 vs. San Diego State: WIN.  I think this will be a pretty easy win.  SDSU lost a couple of their top receivers for the year due to injury.  Otherwise, I thought it was going to be a close win.

Oct. 1 vs. Minnesota: WIN.  The Golden Gophers are just a steap ahead of Eastern Michigan.

Oct. 8 at Northwestern: WIN.  The Wildcats have a solid offense that will put up some points, but I have confidence that defensive coordinator Greg Mattison will have some better ideas on how to stop the spread than his predecessors.

Oct. 15 at Michigan State: WIN.  It's about time that Michigan gets another victory against the Spartans, who got lucky repeatedly in the 2010 season.  I can't see Hoke and Mattison losing to MSU in year one.

Oct. 29 vs. Purdue: WIN.  Purdue is bad, and their starting quarterback from last year is out due to an ACL tear.

Nov. 5 at Iowa: LOSS.  Iowa is going to be good this year, unfortunately.  They always seem to play Michigan tough, and their defense is solid.  If this game were in Ann Arbor, I'd pick the Wolverines . . . but it's an away game.

Nov. 12 at Illinois: WIN. Illinois lost a couple good players in their defensive front seven, and the couple good players left shouldn't be enough to beat the Wolverines.

Nov. 19 vs. Nebraska: LOSS.  Nebraska's too good on both sides of the ball for Michigan to handle.  They might win the Big Ten in their first season.

Nov. 26 vs. Ohio State: LOSS.  I wish I could predict a Michigan victory here, but Ohio State has been so dominant in recent years that I can't see the Wolverines pulling out a victory.  All of OSU's suspended players will be back and warmed up for several weeks before coming to Ann Arbor.

Final Record: 8-4

2011 Countdown: #9 Troy Woolfolk

Defensive back Troy Woolfolk with his father, former Michigan running back Butch
(image via DetNews.com)

Name: Troy Woolfolk
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 191 lbs.
High school: Dulles High School in Sugar Land, TX
Position: Cornerback
Class: Redshirt senior
Jersey number: #29
Last year: I ranked Woolfolk at #2.  But by the time I got to that ranking, he had already dislocated his ankle and been declared unable to play.

Thank goodness Woolfolk is back.  With the overall lack of speed and athleticism in the defensive backfield, he will be a welcome sight on September 3.  Last year I was expecting big things from the kid, and he had an unfortunate practice incident that caused his senior season to be delayed.  That absence meant that the cornerback positions were left to senior James Rogers and redshirt sophomore J.T. Floyd, neither of whom was particularly impressive; Floyd suffered an ankle injury halfway through the season that forced true freshman Courtney Avery into starting action, too.  By the end of the year, Michigan was starting cornerbacks #3 and #4 on the pre-season depth chart.  Rogers played admirably with 40 tackles and 3 picks, Floyd made 66 tackles and 1 interception, and Avery made 36 tackles, but getting 4 interceptions out of your cornerbacks - not to mention oodles of completions in front of them - was hard to watch.

Woolfolk has been earning praise this August for his off-season preparation and his knowledge of the defense, despite being unable to practice full speed in the spring.  Comments from defensive coordinator Greg Mattison and head coach Brady Hoke suggest that Woolfolk will be a starter in the defensive backfield on September 3.  But once again, his position has been muddied.  Michigan technically has three returning starters at the cornerback position with Woolfolk, Floyd, and Avery; meanwhile, only Jordan Kovacs has started at a safety spot (Carvin Johnson started a few games last year, but as a hybrid outside linebacker).  If the Wolverines want to get their best four defensive backs on the field, that might be a combination of Floyd and Avery at cornerback with Woolfolk and Kovacs at safety.  Whether he's at safety or cornerback, I'm guessing Woolfolk will be Michigan's best defensive back.

Prediction: Starting cornerback; 45 tackles, 2 interceptions

Poll Results: You guys really disagreed with me here.  Woolfolk only got 7% of the votes, while Koger (51%), Omameh (20%), and Hemingway (17%) all had more.