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| Yeah, you better pitch that ball. (image via GreenwichTime) |
I tried out something new this week. It's still a work in progress, but I graded the defense. The scoring formula is very similar to that of MGoBlog in that a player's score on each play can vary from a +3 all the way to a -3. Only players who are directly involved in each play were scored, so for example, the backside corner on a sweep to the right is unlikely to be involved. Points were added or subtracted due to good/bad reads, filling/missing assignments, and physical superiority/inferiority (i.e. getting juked is a negative, open-field tackle is a positive).
SCORES
MMartin: +17 . . . Had a monster day, beat offensive linemen off snap, crushed a RB trying to block
JKovacs: +9 . . . Also had a great day, made several plays in the open field
RVanBergen: +7 . . . Made a lot of nice plays, but lost gap responsibility a couple times
KDemens: +6 . . . Played downhill nicely, made some plays in coverage too
JRyan: +5 . . . Up and down day, played physically, punished a slot receiver trying to block him
DMorgan: +3 . . . Did good job flowing to the ball, missed a couple tackles in the hole
CAvery: +2 . . . Played well when called upon, did a good job of covering flat
WCampbell: +2 . . . Hustled to crush Martinez, notched a sack, got blown off ball by double-team
TWoolfolk: +2 . . . Largely a non-factor but had a nice pass breakup
FClark: +1 . . . Athletic but raw
BBeyer: 0 . . . Average, perhaps too stiff to remain at OLB permanently
BCountess: 0 . . . Lost contain on final Nebraska touchdown, but even Urban Meyer never saw play before
JFurman: 0 . . . One good play, one bad play
DHollowell: 0 . . . One good play, one bad play
MJones: 0 . . . Just not very athletic
JVanSlyke: 0 . . . Ho-hum
JBlack: -1 . . . Looks like a future 3-tech DT, poor change-of-direction skills
NBrink: -1 . . . Overmatched
JFloyd: -1 . . . One bad beat, a couple good plays in coverage
WHeininger: -1 . . . Somewhat overmatched, got too far upfield once
CRoh: -1 . . . Needs to do better job of disengaging from blockers in run game
RTaylor: -1 . . . Beat in coverage once
QWashington: -1 . . . Mostly invisible
BHawthorne: -2 . . . Doesn't know how to wrap up ballcarriers
TGordon: -2 . . . One bad beat, otherwise not involved much
TOTAL: +43
CONCLUSIONS
I don't think I can overstate how awesome Mike Martin was. Even when he wasn't making tackles, he was pressuring Martinez or screwing up the blocking scheme. Van Bergen was pretty dominant up front, too. Michigan fans are pretty spoiled right now, because there are two seniors up front who are taking care of business. Next year there's bound to be a dropoff at those two positions, so enjoy these last two games.
The freshmen weren't great but weren't horrible, either. Desmond Morgan, Frank Clark, Brennen Beyer, Blake Countess, Delonte Hollowell, and Raymon Taylor combined for a +3 score on the day, mostly thanks to Morgan. Brandin Hawthorne's unwillingness to wrap up when he tackles is maddening; he actually packs a punch despite being undersized, but it doesn't matter if the guy doesn't fall down.
Nicely done. Just couldn't throw that bone to Floyd though could you?
ReplyDeleteYou know they'll be coming for you. Torches, pitchforks, all of it.
I like seeing the freshmen LBs in there if for no other reason than it now looks like a real Big Ten defense standing there for the snap.
Both Ryan and Morgan look to be bigger than their program specs, Ryan in particular.
@ Roanman 8:02 a.m.
ReplyDeleteI don't throw bones to anyone. Roh is one of my favorites, and he's in the negatives, too.
re: Ryan looking bigger...it's gotta be the neck roll.
Nice job.
ReplyDeleteGlad to see that Martin is playing to his potential again. He is a likeable guy and he has really improved his draft position over the last few weeks in my opinion. I noticed on a couple plays - one of which was featured by instant replay - even when Martin was slow off the snap, he was still beating his man soundly. It's not something you see often even from top DT's. Hope he has another great game this week.
Have a couple questions about your methodology I'm curious about and have always wondered how it gets handled.
ReplyDelete1) Did you base it off of the TV shots or did you have access to the footage that shows all the players?
2) If it was off the TV, how much do you think that influences the score for someone like Martin who you always see on every play vs. something like a CB who might shut down his man on a pass but you never see it because the TV never shows it?
3) I thought I've read before where you are a football coach. Is it a lot harder to grade a TV game than a game your own team plays because of the footage you have available?
Wow, 24 points between Martin and RVB. I hope Kenny Wilkins and Chris Rock are taking notes.
ReplyDeleteOf the freshmen - Desmond Morgan, Frank Clark, Brennen Beyer, Blake Countess, Delonte Hollowell, Jake Ryan, and Raymon Taylor - who do you see as having the most upside in terms of developing into a top-notch player?
ReplyDeleteWashington and Ash need to both make a jump next year. Either that or Black needs to beef up.
ReplyDeleteThundemag, you think Mike Martin reads your blog? He’s been a terror ever since you called him out!
ReplyDelete@ TRE 10:41 a.m.
ReplyDelete1) I based it off of TV footage. I don't have any inside access to film.
2) It probably has a decent effect on a cornerback/safety's grade, because a well covered receiver isn't seen much. However, the defensive line was on Martinez pretty quick, so they wouldn't have needed to hold their coverage for long.
3) It's much harder to grade TV footage than our game footage. Usually I have two cameras to analyze film from, and one of our cameramen keeps all 22 players on the screen whenever possible. Plus there are no instant replays/commercials to mess up our film.
@ Anonymous 12:24 p.m.
ReplyDeleteI think Countess and Ryan are the best of the bunch, and Clark and Morgan have played well, too. Countess is the next Leon Hall, in my opinion. Ryan reminds me a little bit of Clay Matthews with his reckless style. I like both of them a lot.
@ Bobbyhill57 10:04 p.m.
ReplyDeleteI think Martin's explosion is nothing more than coincidental. But yeah, I did notice that he stepped it up shortly after I mentioned that he was having a subpar year. Craig Roh did the exact same thing, although Roh isn't on Martin's level. I think I just got lucky by pointing out their shortcomings at the exact same time as it started clicking for them.
The most important thing is that they're playing well. I want them all to succeed. Go Blue!