2013 NFL Draft Preview: Michigan

Denard Robinson

Right here is the one . . . the only . . . exhibition of my non-expert opinion on where Michigan's players will end up in (or out) of the NFL Draft.

Denard Robinson, QB/WR/RB
Robinson has some questions about what position(s) he'll be able to play in the NFL.  It's pretty clear that he won't be a full-time quarterback (although certain packages or plays wouldn't be out of the question), but he might lack the hands and route running skills to be a wide receiver or the bulk to be a running back.  My guess is that he will carve out a career somewhat like that of the Cleveland Browns' Josh Cribbs, a guy who isn't a star but contributes as a receiver, runner, and kickoff returner.
Best guess: 2nd round, #59 overall to New England Patriots

William Campbell, DT
Campbell measured in at 6'5", 311 lbs., ran a 5.15 forty, and did 35 reps on the bench press at Michigan's pro day.  He was not very productive at Michigan and struggled to win a starting role, but he is very large and shows impressive power when he decides to stay low and play hard.  There's a chance that Robinson will be the only player drafted out of Michigan, but if there are others, the best bet appears to be Campbell for the next highest draft slot.  He would fit best as a 3-technique in a 4-3 defense, in my opinion.
Best guess: 6th round, #188 overall to Chicago Bears

Jordan Kovacs, S
The 5'11", 205 lb. Kovacs was highly productive as a tackler at Michigan, although his pass coverage leaves something to be desired.  He ran a 4.63 at Michigan's pro day and showed impressive leaping ability with a 35" vertical, but that athleticism doesn't really show itself on the field.  Kovacs played strong safety at Michigan, and that's likely where he would fit best in the NFL - as an in-the-box safety who doesn't have to worry too much about deep coverage.  He could also be productive on special teams coverage.
Best guess: 7th round, #247 overall to Baltimore Ravens

Craig Roh, DE
Roh measured at 6'4", 271 lbs. at Michigan's pro day and ran the forty in 4.91; somewhat disappointingly, he only put up 20 reps of 225 lbs. on the bench press.  He changes direction fairly well for a strongside end, but he lacks pass rush moves beyond the occasional bull rush.  Added weight seems to have slowed him down throughout his career, so he may not be able to bulk up into a 3-4 defensive end; his best bet might be to try to make it as a slightly undersized strongside end in a 4-3.
Best guess: Undrafted

Patrick Omameh, OG
Omameh is a 6'4", 303 lb. prospect who was a four-year starter at Michigan, but he only put up 22 reps at Michigan's pro day.  He's not particularly adept at pulling, but he has pretty good lateral movement and can stay low.  If he can increase his strength and add a little bit of weight, I think Omameh can latch on as a backup somewhere, perhaps in a zone running scheme like Houston's.
Best guess: Undrafted

Kenny Demens, LB
Demens stands 6'1" and 245 lbs. with a 4.82 forty and 26 reps on the bench press; he also had a 33.5" vertical and a 4.54 shuttle time.  He's not particularly quick at diagnosing plays, but he is a thumping hitter with surprisingly good coverage skills.  Demens didn't make enough plays at Michigan to really stand out, but he could earn a shot as a middle linebacker in a 4-3; his body and athleticism also make him seem like perhaps an inside linebacker in a 3-4, but his lack of quick diagnoses make that a questionable proposition because he would have to shed linemen.
Best guess: Undrafted

Roy Roundtree, WR
Roundtree is a 6'1", 178 lb. receiver prospect who ran a 4.58 forty at Michigan's pro day, where he also put up just 10 reps on the bench.  That forty time isn't very impressive, but he was deceptively quick at Michigan, breaking off several 70+ yard receptions throughout his career.  He has struggled to add weight at any point in his college career, and NFL defensive backs will probably be able to push him around pretty easily.  He could perhaps help out as a slot receiver for someone, but he's not fast enough or physical enough to work on the outside, in my opinion.
Best guess: Undrafted

J.T. Floyd, CB
Floyd is a 5'10", 190 lb. defensive back who put up less than stellar numbers at Michigan's pro day - a 4.79 forty and 5 reps on the bench press.  It's no secret that I have never been impressed with Floyd as a football player, so I won't beat around the bush: I don't think he has a shot at getting drafted, and his best chance would be to hook on with a team that runs a Tampa Cover Two where he can sit in the flat on a lot of plays.
Best guess: Undrafted

Ricky Barnum, OG
Barnum is a 6'2", 297 lb. interior lineman who earned good reviews for his ability to get out and run, but he ran just a 5.53 forty at Michigan's pro day; he did, however, put up a respectable 25 reps on the bench press.  He may have been best suited for the zone running offense that Rich Rodriguez employed, but most of his playing time was earned in 2011 and 2012, when he was expected to be a powerful, drive-blocking guard.  He struggled to get much movement and does not appear likely to get drafted, but perhaps a zone running team will give him a shot.
Best guess: Undrafted

Brandin Hawthorne, LB
Hawthorne is a 6'0", 220 lb. prospect who benched 225 lbs. an impressive 27 times at Michigan's pro day.  He was an occasional starter at Michigan, but fell behind freshmen at weakside linebacker in each of his last two seasons.  The chances of him making it in the NFL are slim, but if he does, it will probably be as a weakside linebacker in a 4-3 and/or a special teamer.
Best guess: Undrafted

Vincent Smith, RB
Smith is a 5'6", 172 lb. player who ran a 4.85 at Michigan's pro day in March, although he did a little better with a 4.31 shuttle time; he also had a 30" vertical and did 14 reps on the bench.  He earned a starting job as a feature back in 2010, but that role dissipated when Brady Hoke was hired; since the beginning of 2011, he was mostly a pass protector and third down back.  Without the speed to make big plays in the NFL as a third down back or returner, Smith might get just a cursory glance by a few NFL teams.
Best guess: Undrafted

Elliott Mealer, OG
Mealer, at 6'4" and 321 lbs., ran just as fast (5.54 seconds) as Barnum, despite being two inches taller and 24 lbs. heavier.  Mealer also put up 29 repetitions on the bench, which is a good number.  He played center in 2012, but he seemed to struggle getting off the ball; however, I do have to say that his snaps themselves were excellent.  He also had some mental gaffes, but that was perhaps in part due to playing mostly tackle and guard early in his career before becoming the full-time center.  If Mealer is able to latch on in the NFL, I think it will be as a right guard for a team that likes to run the ball.
Best guess: Undrafted

OTHERS EXPECTED TO GO UNDRAFTED:
Mike Kwiatkowski, TE
Brandon Moore, TE

Brandin Hawthorne, #7

The 2011 game against Notre Dame was probably Hawthorne's best career performance

HIGH SCHOOL
Hawthorne was a 3-star to both major sites, and was similarly rated by both Rivals and Scout - the #35 and #33 outside linebacker, respectively.  He committed to Rich Rodriguez on August 29, 2008.  Hawthorne attended Pahokee (FL) Pahokee, a teammate of fellow future Wolverines Vincent Smith and Richard Ash.  He made 200 tackles, 76 tackles for loss, 42 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, and 5 fumble recoveries throughout his high school career.

COLLEGE
Hawthorne enrolled early in January 2009 and proceeded to burn his redshirt for four games of special teams action, during which he accrued no statistics.  Hawthorne was a third string outside linebacker during his sophomore season in 2010, when he made 1 tackle against Bowling Green.  During his junior season in 2011, Hawthorne worked his way up the depth chart; there was a pretty good three-way battle between Hawthorne, senior Brandon Herron (who got hurt immediately), and freshman Desmond Morgan (who eventually won the job).  Hawthorne still managed to start five games before getting benched, making 43 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 interception throughout the year.  He had a pretty poor effort against Michigan State, though, which seemed to be the final nail in the coffin.  Despite a strong spring game effort in 2012, defensive coordinator Greg Mattison openly criticized his physicality; he was mostly limited to special teams as a senior and got himself buried on the bench at inside linebacker, playing just one game on defense.  His final campaign consisted of of just 19 tackles and concluded with a suspension for his final college game, the Outback Bowl against South Carolina.

CAREER STATISTICS
63 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 interception

AWARDS
None.

I WILL REMEMBER HIM FOR . . . 
. . . making a "highlight reel" one-handed interception in the 2012 spring game.  It flashed his athletic potential while hinting at what could have been.

SUMMARY
I wasn't very high on Hawthorne when he was coming out of high school, and he was one of those guys whose homeland - he's from Florida! - seemed to define his recruitment more than his football prowess.  Sure, he made lots of tackles in high school, but he didn't explode off the screen in those highlights.  Furthermore, Rodriguez recruited him as a "box safety" for the 3-3-5 when he seemed too slow to play safety and too small to play linebacker.  He eventually grew to 220 lbs., which is small-ish for a linebacker.  Ian Gold was about that size, but he was a better athlete; Larry Foote was about that size, but he was more physical.  But Hawthorne flashed the potential to at least be a situational player, because he was quick enough to get around the occasional offensive lineman or speed to his pass drops.  Ultimately, he just wasn't consistent enough, and the final straw for me was when he had a chance to wrap up Michigan State's Keshawn Martin in the 2011 loss, and he just gave Martin a halfhearted shove, which allowed a touchdown. Players might loaf once in a while, but on a goal line play where he could save a touchdown?  There's no excuse for that.  Still, Hawthorne had the right set of skills to be an effective special teamer, and he was that . . . until the Outback Bowl suspension.  I can only wonder how the outcome may have been different if it was Hawthorne trying to tackle Ace Sanders on that 63-yard punt return touchdown, instead of freshman fullback Sione Houma.  It seems to have been a career of missed opportunities for Hawthorne.

PROJECTION
Hawthorne's failure to nail down a starting job, his off-the-field issues, his lack of size, and his so-so athletic skills indicate that he will not make it in the NFL.  I would be slightly surprised if he even signed somewhere as an undrafted free agent, but stranger things have probably happened.

Floyd, Hagerup, and Hawthorne suspended for Outback Bowl

J.T. Floyd got himself suspended for the upcoming bowl game

Fifth year senior cornerback J.T. Floyd, junior punter Will Hagerup, and senior linebacker Brandin Hawthorne have all been suspended for the Outback Bowl against South Carolina, which will be played on New Year's Day.

Floyd has started all 12 regular season games at boundary corner, making 48 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and 5 pass breakups.  However, I have been a pretty persistent and vocal critic about his play, because he lacks speed and playmaking ability.  He's also not a very physical player, and he was beaten deep several times this year, although the Big Ten's mediocre quarterbacks rarely connected.  His replacement will likely be Raymon Taylor at the boundary corner spot, with Courtney Avery probably stepping in at field corner.  This could also cause recent position switcher Dennis Norfleet or sophomore Delonte Hollowell to get some playing time on defense.

Hagerup is the Big Ten's best punter, averaging 45.0 yards per punt.  Thirteen of his 33 punts went farther than 50 yards.  His replacement will probably be Matt Wile, who averaged just 31.9 yards per punt, but 7/9 of those landed inside the 20-yard line.  Last season Wile averaged 41.6 yards per punt when Hagerup was suspended for the first four games of the season.

Hawthorne was completely limited to special teams this season, making 19 total tackles.  As a small-ish, speedy linebacker, he was very solid in kickoff coverage.  But he has clashed with coaches at times, made some halfhearted plays, and generally played/behaved his way out of regular playing time.  Despite having some playmaking ability - witness his one-handed interception in April's spring game - he was surpassed at inside linebacker by freshman Joe Bolden, freshman James Ross, and a guy who has yet to make a single positive play in a Michigan uniform, Mike Jones.

The biggest loss might be Floyd, because Michigan had already been without starting cornerback Blake Countess for the entire season due to an ACL tear.  Now Michigan's #3 and #4 corners to start the year will probably line up for the majority of the Outback Bowl, and guys who have played sparingly will be forced into action while other players shuffle around.

Ohio State 26, Michigan 21

Here's some Kate Upton to make you feel better.

I told you so but I wish I didn't.  Last week I railed against the usage of Denard Robinson, saying that using Denard so much last week a) set him up to get injured, b) might limit his effectiveness against OSU, and c) took away the element of surprise of using him in the backfield and at receiver.  People responded by saying that they were glad Michigan used him because it would give Urban Meyer trouble preparing for this week's game.  How did that go for you?  Denard tweaked his elbow injury last week and didn't throw even once this game.  Michigan also ran very few plays with Robinson and Devin Gardner on the field, running a very vanilla and predictable offense.  I guess all that stuff last week was just for fun.

WTF.  There's really no excuse for the play calling in the second half, and that falls on both Brady Hoke and Al Borges.  People want to fire Al Borges, but the head coach has to step in and call shenanigans on the crappy play calling.  Now I'm not suggesting that either one get fired, but you can't separate the two entities. As the head guy, Hoke is responsible for the calls that are made by his coordinators.  Michigan tried running the ball up the middle with Vincent Smith - which has been a terrible idea for years - and generally went into a shell on offense.  There was no element of surprise, and all the plays and counter plays that were opened up last week by Robinson's utility were apparently erased from this week's playbook.

Derrick Green, come on down.  Outside of Fitzgerald Toussaint, Michigan's running backs are terrible.  Thomas Rawls has no vision, lacks speed, and isn't as powerful as a short yardage back should be.  Vincent Smith is gone anyway, and while I always liked him as a third down-type back, plugging him in for short-yardage plays against OSU was a poor decision.  You simply cannot expect him to gain yardage when Michigan's interior offensive line is this bad.  He did okay running outside on the inverted veer plays, but good grief, Borges has to put him in a position to be successful.  Even fullback Stephen Hopkins comes in for some criticism here, because he missed two key blocks and generally looked like he didn't understand his job.  Michigan needs running backs in a bad way, and I don't see game-breaking ability in either DeVeon Smith or Wyatt Shallman.  The coaches need to bring in a bunch of backs and let them improve through competition.

Play action bulls***. Here's the part that perhaps irked me most about the play calling in the second half.  Borges kept calling play action passes when there was clearly no threat of running the ball.  That doesn't work against teams who aren't stupid, and the Buckeyes are a lot of things - cheaters, ugly, arrogant, etc. - but their defense is always well coached.  When Devin Gardner turns around to give play action fakes, he's diverting his attention from the coverage and sometimes he's limiting himself to throwing to half the field.  The linebackers and safeties weren't biting on play action fakes to Vincent Smith because Smith gets tackled by a stiff breeze, so there's no tactical advantage.  But again and again, Gardner wasted time by running around with his back to the defense and pretending like the Buckeyes gave a s*** about the 5'7", 175 lb. running back.  Just drop Gardner straight back or roll him out.

Carlos Hyde played well.  I actually thought Michigan's interior defense would hold Hyde down pretty well, but Michigan's defensive ends and play calls seemed so concerned with Braxton Miller that they unclogged the middle a little bit.  Hyde got downhill and broke a few tackles, but there were several occasions where he got to the second and third levels without being touched.  Greg Mattison seemed to call more 4-3 Over defensive fronts than normal.

Freshman frustration.  I do not like seeing guys like James Ross and Joe Bolden out there in games like this.  It was somewhat inevitable, I guess, because of a lack of depth, but today is an example of why you need depth at linebacker.  Bolden in particular got out of position a couple times and allowed some key gains, and Ross got caught inside on a Braxton Miller run.  Both of those guys have high upsides, but freshmen are freshmen.  Next year the Wolverines should be able to go two-deep with experienced guys at every linebacker position, so we should see even more improvement in the linebacker group.

Mike Jones and Brandin Hawthorne exist in bad ways.  I was not a fan when Rich Rodriguez recruited Jones and Hawthorne, and they have worked their ways down the depth chart.  Jones incurred a 15-yard penalty for a late hit in this game, and Hawthorne has made similarly poor plays this season on special teams.  It's not a coincidence that Ross and Bolden passed those guys for playing time.  Hawthorne will graduate after this season, and I would not be surprised to see redshirt junior Jones depart with a year of eligibility remaining.

This was Gardner's worst game.  Gardner was visibly frustrated at a couple points, and it showed in his play.  Especially in the second half, it looked like he was trying to throw pinpoint passes instead if letting it fly.  He's always had a slightly awkward throwing motion, but he just didn't seem to be following through with his normal verve.  That's somewhat understandable for a kid playing quarterback in such a big game for the first time, which is why it would have been helpful to have Robinson ready to throw the ball.  Robinson had his best quarterbacking performance against these Buckeyes last season, so limiting him to 10 touches seems like a bad idea.  Gardner finished 11/20 for 171 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, and he took 4 sacks despite the absence of John Simon, OSU's best defensive lineman.  There was nobody to take the pressure off of Gardner - Robinson out of the backfield, Toussaint, Borges - and thus it was left on his shoulders to try to make plays when there none to make.

The better team won.  I argued with people all week who said that Michigan was the better team but that the Wolverines played a tougher schedule.  The bottom line is that any of us would rather be 11-0 than 8-3 coming into the game, regardless of who was on the schedule.  The Buckeyes ran the ball well, threw the ball well, and played pretty solid defense except for a couple huge plays (Robinson's 67-yard touchdown, Roundtree's 75-yard TD reception).  The bottom line is that Michigan replaced David Molk, Mike Martin, and Ryan Van Bergen with Elliott Mealer, Quinton Washington, and Craig Roh, respectively, all of which are steps backward.  I fully believe that an influx of talent is coming with Hoke's recruiting classes, but right now Michigan has a deficit that will take some time to fix.

2012 Season Countdown: #35 Brandin Hawthorne

Brandin Hawthorne

Name: Brandin Hawthorne
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 214 lbs.
High school: Pahokee (FL) Pahokee
Position: Linebacker
Class: Senior
Jersey number: #7
Last year: I ranked Hawthorne #62 and said he would be a special teams contributor.  He started five games at WILL, making 43 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 interception, and 1 pass breakup.

Lots of unexpected things happened last year for Hawthorne to leap to the forefront of the WILL linebacker depth chart.  Brandon Herron had a great opening game and then hurt his quad.  Marell Evans was ineligible after transferring from Hampton.  And Hawthorne played better than he had thus far in his career.  Despite being only 6'0" and 214 lbs., he held up fairly well and made some big plays for Michigan during his five starts.  However, things seemed to go downhill with a subpar effort in the Michigan State game, and Hawthorne seemed to find himself in the doghouse from that point onward.  Freshman Desmond Morgan grabbed the reins at WILL and started for the second half of the season.

Hawthorne played a little bit at middle linebacker this spring, too.  He's probably too small to be a viable full-time option at MIKE, but he could be a situational backup or play in the nickel package.  He made a very nice one-handed interception in the spring game, he's a hard hitter for his size, and he has good speed.  Unfortunately for him, defensive coordinator Greg Mattison was still not impressed after the spring game and was harping on how Hawthorne needs to become more physical.  This is the conundrum the coaches face.  Should they play a coachable, traditional inside linebacker with perhaps less playmaking ability, such as Desmond Morgan or Joe Bolden?  Or should they play a faster, less coachable guy like Hawthorne?  From what I've seen out of this staff, they'll more often play the traditional guy with better technique.  Hawthorne will still play on special teams and get some action as a backup, but I doubt he has much hope of reclaiming his WILL job.

Prediction: Backup inside linebacker, special teams contributor

2012 Spring Game Review - Defense

Senior WILL Brandin Hawthorne was Saturday's defensive MVP

DEFENSIVE ENDS
I thought Craig Roh looked pretty darn good at strongside end.  The starter at weakside end was Brennen Beyer, who looks significantly bigger this spring than he did in the fall.  He looked like a bona fide weakside end instead of a lanky outside linebacker.  Beyer got a good pass rush a couple times.  Meanwhile, backup weakside end Frank Clark performed solidly and made a nice hit on fullback Joey Kerridge, whom Clark chased down out of the backfield.  I also thought backup strongside end Keith Heitzman looked pretty solid.  Based on how Nathan Brink looked last year, I'm going to posit that Heitzman passes up Brink this fall.  (Brink sat out the spring game, still recovering from his broken leg.)

DEFENSIVE TACKLES
William Campbell looked alternately solid and inconsequential.  He had one or two good  plays but he just didn't seem to be going hard all the time.  He should have destroyed walk-on guard Joey Burzynski (or so I would think) but instead got stalemated too often.  Maybe the coaches are teaching him differently than I would expect, but it all seemed to start with his stance, which needs work from my perspective.  Jibreel Black looks like a matchup nightmare for a lot of offensive guards, because he's too quick to handle with any consistency.  He looks bigger than last year (although the neck roll might have had something to do with that).  It also seems that Richard Ash has taken a step forward, and I was surprised by how big backup 3-tech Chris Rock has become.  I saw glimmers of hope there for some competent rotation players.  Quinton Washington and Ken Wilkins still didn't impress me.

LINEBACKERS
I didn't pay much attention to Jake Ryan because we already know he's a good player.  Kenny Demens looked solid but unspectacular at MIKE.  Desmond Morgan left the scrimmage early after getting chopped down on a blitz; he limped to the sideline and was later carted into the tunnel.  Hopefully it was nothing serious.  Cam Gordon was Ryan's backup at SAM, and he's definitely put on some weight since last year.  Now he looks like a linebacker rather than a strong safety.  I don't think he'll surpass Ryan, but he's a very good backup.  It will be interesting to see what the coaches do with him in 2013 as a senior, because by that time, I don't think they'll be able to afford to keep him off the field.  Mike Jones and Joe Bolden played as backup middle linebackers, but neither one was particularly visible.  I saw a couple loafs out of Antonio Poole, which does not bode well for his immediate future.  Kaleb Ringer looked like he was in great shape and he made a nice tackle on Justice Hayes, but both of those guys seem to be a ways down on the depth chart.  The linebacker who impressed me most on the day was Brandin Hawthorne, who made a couple nice tackles for loss and grabbed a one-handed pick, albeit off walk-on Jack Kennedy, who floated the ball across the middle.  Hawthorne looked good at times last year, too, but he's another guy who loafs once in a while, and that seemed to get him in the dighouse.  The linebackers now have depth, which we haven't been able to say for several years.  I truly believe that Michigan has five starter-level linebackers: Ryan, Gordon, Demens, Morgan, and Hawthorne.

CORNERBACKS
J.T. Floyd started over Terrence Talbott, despite reports that Talbott had overtaken Floyd.  That was somewhat expected.  Floyd looked solid but was never tested deep.  Blake Countess made a nice pick on a late Devin Gardner throw and also made a couple nice tackles.  The backup cornerbacks did not impress me, although I don't remember seeing much out of Talbott.  Maybe he's the third guy and we'll be fine, but I don't think Raymon Taylor and Delonte Hollowell are ready.  We know Courtney Avery is pretty solid at the nickel corner, and although he pulled up on a tackle, it seemed like he was trying not to submarine the leaping receiver; if it were a game, I would be disappointed by that play, but I think he was just trying not to hurt his teammate.

SAFETIES
The starting safeties weren't really tested in the running or the passing game.  Jordan Kovacs should be good and practice reports suggest that Thomas Gordon has improved once again, but I guess we'll have to wait and see on him.  Backup free safety Jarrod Wilson needs to get stronger.  He did miss a tackle on Thomas Rawls that turned into a touchdown, but Wilson should be struggling through senioritis and ordering his prom tux right now.  Tackling 220 lb. running backs is a tough task for a safety so young.  Marvin Robinson looked solid as the backup strong safety and made a nice tackle for little or no gain in the run game.  As long as Robinson's legal troubles are behind him, I expect him to improve and be a good in-the-box safety.  He should be a good replacement for Kovacs after the latter graduates.

Poll Results: Who will be Michigan's starting WLB against Alabama?

Desmond Morgan (#44) played extensively as a true freshman last season

A couple weeks ago, I posted a poll asking who the starting weakside linebacker will be against Alabama in September.  Michigan has two returning starters at the position, but both have some deficiencies and some Michigan fans have made noise about wanting them to be surpassed.  Here are the results of the poll:

Desmond Morgan: 64%
The sophomore Morgan appears to be the starting weakside linebacker going into the spring, which continues his reign on the spot from last season.  Last year he made 63 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, and 1 sack while playing in twelve of the thirteen games.  He has added some weight during the off-season, so we'll see if that affects his speed in a significant way.

Joe Bolden: 17%
Bolden is a 6'3", 230 lb. true freshman who enrolled early and has been practicing with the team throughout the spring.  He earned rave reviews at the Under Armour All American Game practices, and so far this spring, practice observers have been impressed, too.  According to several accounts, he has passed all but Kenny Demens for middle linebacker reps this spring.

Brandin Hawthorne: 5%
Hawthorne is a 6'0", 214 lb. senior who played pretty extensively last season.  He made 43 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and 1 sack while starting five of the twelve games in which he played.  He lost playing time in the second half of the season to Morgan, though, and this spring he has still been a backup.

Antonio Poole: 5%
Poole is a 6'2", 212 lb. redshirt freshman who has yet to see the field for the Wolverines.  Some rumors have suggested that he's the #2 weakside linebacker this spring, but he has also seen some reps behind Demens and Bolden at the MIKE position.

James Ross: 4%
Ross will be a true freshman in the fall and has yet to enroll at Michigan.  As far as recruiting hype goes, he's the most touted linebacker of the entire group.  But he's also probably the smallest and he has the least experience, so it will be an uphill battle for him to get on the field this fall.

Kaleb Ringer: 0%
Ringer is one of three true freshmen to enroll early in January (Bolden, safety Jarrod Wilson).  He has been practicing this spring, but generally seems to be the least mentioned of the three.  And with the depth at inside linebacker, he seems to be way down the list.  He has also been getting limited reps at middle linebacker.

Other: 0%

Linebackers Preview: Michigan vs. Virginia Tech

Kyle Fuller (#17) was a Second Team All-ACC pick despite starting at three different positions,
including weakside linebacker (image via Collegiate Times)

MICHIGAN
Starters: Redshirt freshman Jake Ryan (6'3", 230 lbs.) started 10 games at strongside linebacker; he ended the season with 30 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble, and 2 fumble recoveries.  Redshirt junior middle linebacker Kenny Demens (6'1", 248 lbs.) started every game and led the team in tackles; he finished with 86 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, and 1 forced fumble.  True freshman weakside linebacker Desmond Morgan (6'1", 220 lbs.) took over the starting job midway through the year and started 6 games altogether; he ended the regular season with 53 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 fumble recovery.
Backups: True freshman Brennen Beyer (6'3", 225 lbs.) is the backup SAM and made 11 total tackles.  Junior Brandin Hawthorne (6'0", 214 lbs.) is the backup WILL (and started 5 games before losing his spot), finishing with 43 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 interception.  Demens rarely leaves the field.

VIRGINIA TECH
Starters: Redshirt sophomore middle linebacker Jack Tyler (6'0", 229 lbs.) made 3 starts on the season; he ended the year with 35 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 fumble recovery.  Redshirt sophomore inside linebacker Tariq Edwards (6'2", 231 lbs.) started every game; he has 63 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, 2 interceptions, and 1 fumble recovery.  Sophomore cornerback Kyle Fuller (6'0", 187 lbs.) has started the last 2 games at weakside linebacker due to injuries, but started the other 11 games in the defensive backfield and was a Second Team All-ACC selection; he has 64 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 1 interception, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 fumble recovery.  Tyler and Fuller are replacing injured starters Bruce Taylor and Jeron Gouveia-Winslow, respectively, who will also miss the Sugar Bowl.
Backups: Fifth year senior middle linebacker Barquell Rivers (6'0", 250 lbs.) has 16 tackles, 1/2 a sack, and 1 interception.  Redshirt junior outside linebacker Alonzo Tweedy (6'2", 189 lbs.) has 20 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and 1 sack.

THE TAKEAWAY
It's tempting to say that Michigan has the advantage here, since all three starters have superior size and actually earned  their positions rather than stepping in due to injury.  Two of Virginia Tech's starters are replacements, although Fuller has started every game this season at various positions.  But what Michigan has in game experience might be trumped by the playmaking ability of Edwards and Fuller, who have combined for 24 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, and 3 interceptions.  And despite the relative health of Michigan's unit, two of those three starters are still just freshmen.

The Hokies are #37 in the country in tackles for loss, while Michigan ranks at #72.  Additionally, Virginia Tech has the #17 rushing defense, compared to Michigan's #34 rushing D.  The Hokies might be small, but they're quick and they get to the ball.  They have made their name on special teams and defense over the years, and defensive coordinator Bud Foster is a pretty good coordinator.  They won't be able to keep up with Denard Robinson in a foot race, but they should create a nice challenge.

Advantage: Virginia Tech

Michigan vs. Nebraska Grades: Defense

Yeah, you better pitch that ball.
(image via GreenwichTime)

I tried out something new this week.  It's still a work in progress, but I graded the defense.  The scoring formula is very similar to that of MGoBlog in that a player's score on each play can vary from a +3 all the way to a -3.  Only players who are directly involved in each play were scored, so for example, the backside corner on a sweep to the right is unlikely to be involved.  Points were added or subtracted due to good/bad reads, filling/missing assignments, and physical superiority/inferiority (i.e. getting juked is a negative, open-field tackle is a positive).

SCORES
MMartin: +17 . . . Had a monster day, beat offensive linemen off snap, crushed a RB trying to block
JKovacs: +9 . . . Also had a great day, made several plays in the open field
RVanBergen: +7 . . . Made a lot of nice plays, but lost gap responsibility a couple times
KDemens: +6 . . . Played downhill nicely, made some plays in coverage too
JRyan: +5 . . . Up and down day, played physically, punished a slot receiver trying to block him
DMorgan: +3 . . . Did good job flowing to the ball, missed a couple tackles in the hole
CAvery: +2 . . . Played well when called upon, did a good job of covering flat
WCampbell: +2 . . . Hustled to crush Martinez, notched a sack, got blown off ball by double-team
TWoolfolk: +2 . . . Largely a non-factor but had a nice pass breakup
FClark: +1 . . . Athletic but raw
BBeyer: 0 . . . Average, perhaps too stiff to remain at OLB permanently
BCountess: 0 . . . Lost contain on final Nebraska touchdown, but even Urban Meyer never saw play before
JFurman: 0 . . . One good play, one bad play
DHollowell: 0 . . . One good play, one bad play
MJones: 0 . . . Just not very athletic
JVanSlyke: 0 . . . Ho-hum
JBlack: -1 . . . Looks like a future 3-tech DT, poor change-of-direction skills
NBrink: -1 . . . Overmatched
JFloyd: -1 . . . One bad beat, a couple good plays in coverage
WHeininger: -1 . . . Somewhat overmatched, got too far upfield once
CRoh: -1 . . . Needs to do better job of disengaging from blockers in run game
RTaylor: -1 . . . Beat in coverage once
QWashington: -1 . . . Mostly invisible
BHawthorne: -2 . . . Doesn't know how to wrap up ballcarriers
TGordon: -2 . . . One bad beat, otherwise not involved much
TOTAL: +43

CONCLUSIONS
I don't think I can overstate how awesome Mike Martin was.  Even when he wasn't making tackles, he was pressuring Martinez or screwing up the blocking scheme.  Van Bergen was pretty dominant up front, too.  Michigan fans are pretty spoiled right now, because there are two seniors up front who are taking care of business.  Next year there's bound to be a dropoff at those two positions, so enjoy these last two games.

The freshmen weren't great but weren't horrible, either.  Desmond Morgan, Frank Clark, Brennen Beyer, Blake Countess, Delonte Hollowell, and Raymon Taylor combined for a +3 score on the day, mostly thanks to Morgan.  Brandin Hawthorne's unwillingness to wrap up when he tackles is maddening; he actually packs a punch despite being undersized, but it doesn't matter if the guy doesn't fall down.

MGoBlog: I Beg to Differ

Yesterday, Brian at MGoBlog made a "Picture Pages" post where he questioned the diagnosing skills by Michigan's linebackers, based on a play from last week's game against Michigan State.  I disagree with at least part of Brian's conclusions.

First, here's the play:



Michigan is in a standard 4-3 Under alignment, where the responsibilities are as follows:

Jake Ryan = outside contain
Ryan Van Bergen = C gap
Kenny Demens = B gap
Mike Martin = A gap
Brandin Hawthorne = A gap / flow to the ball
Will Heininger = B gap
Craig Roh = C gap / outside contain

Brian's conclusion is this:

The DL cannot do much more than this. They got a two-for-one on the double that leaves a free hitter. On the frontside they drive into the backfield such that the tailback has one realistic option. Short of throwing offensive linemen into the RB, they have done all they can.

I completely disagree.  The defensive line can do much more.  First and foremost, Mike Martin can make the tackle.  The star defensive tackle that people seem afraid to criticize is the first person who makes a mistake here.  He's responsible for the playside A gap but refuses to get off the center's block.  If Martin gets off the block quicker and wraps up Edwin Baker, the play gets made for a loss or a minimal gain.

It's true that middle linebacker Kenny Demens doesn't do a great job on the play.  In my opinion, he should be attacking the offensive guard's outside shoulder, thus maintaining B gap responsibility.  Instead, he takes the guard on head up and then gets stalemated.  If he takes on that guard with his inside shoulder, the WILL (Brandin Hawthorne) is screaming downhill and will tackle Baker for about a 1-yard gain.  (With the way Hawthorne reacts, it looks to me that he's just flowing to the ball and that the free safety is responsible for supporting the weakside A gap.)

I also take issue with Brian's assertion that MSU's linebackers are better at reading plays just because they're coming downhill as soon as Denard Robinson turns to hand off to Vincent Smith.  Well, of course  they are.  Denard Robinson doesn't throw the ball very well, and their entire game plan revolved around stopping Denard Robinson and the running game.  Run the ball?  They're going to sell out to stop it.  Play action?  They're stopping the run and taking their chances with Denard dumping the ball over their heads.  That's been the Spartans' game plan for the past two years, and it worked both times.

Meanwhile, Kenny Demens and Brandin Hawthorne have to be concerned about the play action pass because MSU quarterback Kirk Cousins is someone who can actually complete a few throws downfield.  In fact, just before Demens impacts the releasing guard, you can see his head scan to the right.  I'm not certain that Demens is looking at Cousins, but I wouldn't be surprised to find out that he was checking to see whether Cousins had kept the ball and was rolling out for a pass.

Michigan at Michigan State Awards

Devin Gardner (#7) scrambles, but to no avail.
(image via MGoBlue.com)

Let's see more of this guy on offense . . . Devin Gardner.  I'm not saying more as in he should be the starter, but I do like what Al Borges is doing with Gardner.  I don't typically like two-quarterback platoons, but Gardner is a more skilled passer than Denard Robinson.  He made some gaffes on Saturday (getting sacked on fourth down, making an illegal forward pass, etc.), but he also threw some nice balls and made some plays with his legs.  People keep saying that Robinson is a threat to go all the way on every play, but if opponents put eight or nine decently talented guys in the box, Robinson won't have any running room.  And until he proves that he can beat a team with his arm, Michigan needs to work in a passing threat.  Personally, I'm enjoying the plays when Gardner is at quarterback and Robinson lines up in the backfield or at wide receiver.

Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . the second tight end, whether it's Steve Watson or Brandon Moore.  If the offensive line isn't going to get a push and if Michigan can't run it out of the I-formation, then I think the Wolverines need to get their best eleven on the field.  Junior Hemingway, Roy Roundtree, and Jeremy Gallon are all playmakers, and Kevin Koger is valuable in a lot of ways with his speed, athleticism, blocking, and leadership.  Those four players plus some combination of Denard Robinson, Devin Gardner, Fitzgerald Toussaint, Vincent Smith, and Michael Shaw need to be on the field the vast majority of the time.

Let's see more of this guy on defense . . . Cam Gordon.  Gordon returned to action this week after a nagging back injury caused him to miss the first six games of the season.  In his stead Jake Ryan has made a name for himself as a playmaker at SAM linebacker, but Ryan does have his flaws; he's prone to both making and allowing big plays.  Ryan has to get quicker at reading offensive plays, maintaining the edge, and using his hands to disengage from blockers.  Gordon might not be an immediate upgrade, but perhaps he can help.  It was clear against MSU that Ryan's other backups aren't legitimate options in big-time games.

Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . Brandin Hawthorne and J.T. Floyd (tie).  On one Keshawn Martin touchdown, Hawthorne made a half-assed attempt to tackle him at the pylon and tried to shoulder Martin out of bounds rather than wrap him up.  A good, fundamental tackle would almost certainly have stopped Martin at the 1-yard line, although a touchdown almost certainly would have been delayed rather than prevented altogether.  On the other Martin touchdown, J.T. Floyd made a half-assed attempt to stick with him and jogged behind the play, even though he clearly had Martin in man coverage.  Those weren't cases of being beaten physically - they were examples of players not playing hard and giving 100% effort.

MVP of the game . . . Will Hagerup.  Nobody had a great game offensively or defensively for Michigan, but Hagerup did a solid job of punting on a very windy day.  He only averaged 31.9 yards on seven punts, but four of those pinned the Spartans inside their 20-yard line, and three of them put the green and white bronze at or inside their own 10.  Despite being unable to get any kind of offensive flow or defensive momentum, the Wolverines hung with MSU in the first half largely due to the field position battle.

Play of the game . . . Denard Robinson's touchdown run.  After dropping back to pass, Robinson was almost sacked.  But he yanked himself away, tucked the ball, and scrambled to the left, picking up a nice block by Kevin Koger before squeezing inside the pylon.

Michigan vs. Notre Dame Awards

Junior Hemingway is a man who discovered the wheel and built the Eiffel Tower out of metal and brawn.

Let's see more of this guy on offense . . . Fitzgerald Toussaint.  I know last week's production (11 carries, 80 yards, 2 touchdowns) probably wouldn't have been replicated due to the fact that Michigan's offensive line struggled to get a push.  However, Stephen Hopkins got the majority of the carries in Toussaint's absence, and Hopkins averaged 2.0 yards a carry and fumbled once (his second fumble in 42 career carries).  Toussaint was injured and didn't play at all, but I'm hoping he can return as soon as safely possible.

Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . Bad Denard Robinson.  Robinson looked awful throwing the ball in the first three quarters.  He was only 2/9 in the first half and 4/14 by the end of the third quarter.  He had some nice drives toward the end of the game and obviously pulled off a huge comeback, but the reason Michigan needed  such a huge comeback was his atrocious play in the first half.  He missed open receiver after open receiver after open receiver despite minimal pressure.

Let's see more of this guy on defense . . . Brandin Hawthorne.  I'm not sure what happened to Brandon Herron, who was injured and didn't play after being last week's MVP.  Freshman Desmond Morgan earned the start at weakside linebacker, but didn't last long.  In came Hawthorne, who looks bigger than his listed 214 lbs., and he picked up 6 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and 1 pass breakup.  It's partly the scheme that allows these WILLs to have good games, but credit goes to Hawthorne and Herron for stepping up when given the opportunity.  Unlike some of the other linebackers, Hawthorne had some nicely timed blitzes without giving away his intentions.

Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . Craig Roh.  Yep, I said it.  I really like(d) Roh, but I'm not sure what's going on with him.  He hasn't registered a single tackle yet this year and hasn't generated any pressure. Jibreel Black (3 tackles) has outplayed him even though Black gets destroyed when teams run right at him.  I'll be rooting for Black to get the start next week against Eastern Michigan.  Roh was apparently sick during fall camp and he added almost 20 lbs. in the offseason, so whether it's illness or an inability to move with the added weight, it's just not working.

MVP of the Notre Dame game . . . Denard Robinson, with a close second being Junior Hemingway.  I really, really, really wanted to pick Hemingway here, but the overall stats for Robinson (338 yards passing, 108 yards rushing, 5 total touchdowns) make it just too overwhelming.  He had 4 touchdown passes and picked up the Hopkins fumble before running it in for a score.  When it got down to crunch time, Robinson was electric.  Now that we've got that out of the way, Hemingway turned out several big plays and two of them were on bad throws by Robinson.  He's a jump ball specialist and ended the game with 165 yards and 1 touchdown on 3 receptions.

Play of the game . . . Denard Robinson's recovery of the Stephen Hopkins fumble.  It was the least spectacular of Michigan's five touchdowns, but with Michigan down 24-7 to begin the fourth quarter, things were looking grim.  If Notre Dame had recovered that fumble after Michigan had driven 82 yards, I don't know if the Wolverines would have recovered mentally.  Luckily, Robinson was paying attention and had the quickness and dexterity to pick up the ball on the move.  That was the play that set the rally in motion.  There were so many big plays that it's hard to pick just one (Hemingway's 43-yard TD, Hemingway's 77-yard catch-and-run on Denard's excellent throw, Vincent Smith's 21-yard TD catch-and-run, Jeremy Gallon's 64-yard catch-and-run, Gallon's 14-yard TD reception, Roy Roundtree's 16-yard TD reception, J.T. Floyd's touchdown-saving interception, etc.), but that was the biggest in my mind.

2011 Countdown: #62 Brandin Hawthorne

Brandin Hawthorne

Name: Brandin Hawthorne
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 203 lbs.
High school: Pahokee High School in Pahokee, FL
Position: Safety/linebacker
Class: Junior
Jersey number: #7
Last year: I ranked Hawthorne #52 and said he would be a special teamer who might make a tackle or two.  He was a special teamer and made 1 tackle.

Hawthorne was a high school safety and bounced around his first couple years at Michigan, playing free safety and Spur, which is like a strongside linebacker.  So far he has two seasons of special teams action under his belt . . . and that's about it.  He seemed to be one of those tweeners that Rich Rodriguez liked to recruit so much, the kind that don't really have a position now that some coaches with an actual defensive blueprint have arrived.

This spring Hawthorne saw playing time at both safety and weakside linebacker, and I will admit that he looked better in the spring than he has in the past couple years.  However, he seemed to get most of his action at WILL, and I just don't see him getting to sniff playing time at the position.  Not only will he be fighting some current players for the position (Marell Evans, Mike Jones, maybe Jake Ryan), but the Wolverines have a couple freshmen arriving on campus to make a push for playing time (Antonio Poole, Kellen Jones).  At only 6'0" and 203 lbs., he seems to be a career special teamer.

Prediction: Special teams contributor

Snapshots: How to Give Up 68-yard Touchdown Runs

With a couple exceptions, the spring game was largely devoid of big plays for the offense.  This was the longest play from the line of scrimmage.  It's the second team offense vs. the second team defense, but it gives us a good look at what the defense will be trying to do in 2011.

ABOVE: Prior to the snap, the defense is in a standard 4-3 under look.  FS Marvin Robinson is shifted over to cover the slot receiver, while SS Josh Furman is about 12 yards directly off the ball.  CB Terrence Talbott is walked off the line of scrimmage with only TE Mike Kwiatkowski on his side.  Meanwhile, H-back Ricardo Miller has motioned across the offensive formation and is now offset between the strongside OG and OT.

ABOVE: Initial action suggests it's a power run.  LG Rocko Khoury is pulling across the formation; Kwiatkowski and RT Erik Gunderson are double-teaming LDE Ken Wilkins, who has stood straight up.  Meanwhile, MLB Brandon Herron reads run and immediately steps up to fill the hole.  NT Will Heininger gets outmuscled and collapsed away from the play.

ABOVE: As RB Michael Cox gets the handoff, LT Kristian Mateus whiffs on DE Jibreel Black, who's totally and completely screwed if this is a rollout pass.  HB Ricardo Miller impacts SAM Jake Ryan with LG Rocko Khoury coming to help, while DE Ken Wilkins gets driven off the ball.  MIKE Brandon Herron steps up into the developing hole and WILL Brandin Hawthorne (?) flows to the ball.  CB Terrence Talbott has started to come up and support while FS Marvin Robinson follows his receiver across the field.

ABOVE: SAM Jake Ryan completely stones both blockers and stands his ground, while MIKE Brandon Herron meets RB Michael Cox about a half yard beyond the line of scrimmage; this should be stopped for a gain of a yard or two.  DE Jibreel Black missed Cox in the backfield and has run himself out of the play.  CB Terrence Talbott has stepped up in run support, and FS Marvin Robinson appears to see the ballcarrier and can presumably fight through a block to help make the tackle.

ABOVE: Oops.  MIKE Brandon Herron tackles like a middle schooler.  WILL Brandin Hawthorne (?) lies prone on the ground from just being in the general vicinity of football player-sized football players.  Meanwhile, FS Marvin Robinson has completely overrun the play and lost his leverage on the ballcarrier.  And because of his careless positioning, he flummoxes SS Josh Furman, who has finally stepped up to support only to be thwarted by a teammate.  RB Michael Cox sees the cutback and engages afterburners.

ABOVE: WR Martavious Odoms (?) has good position on CB Greg Brown (?) and walls him off.  As RB Michael Cox hits the 45-yard line, he's a half step in front of FS Marvin Robinson and a half step behind SS Josh Furman.  Speed has always been a question for Robinson, but Furman is a supposed burner who ran a supposed 4.37 in high school.

ABOVE: As RB Michael Cox crosses the goal line with a 68-yard touchdown run, FS Marvin Robinson has gone from half a yard behind Cox to about 9 yards.  SS Josh Furman has lost about 4 yards on Cox.  Of course, both were chasing Cox at an angle as he veered toward the left sideline, but neither ever seemed in danger of catching Cox once he turned on the jets.

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

• Well, if nothing else, we know what Michigan's defensive alignment looks like and how the "power play" works.
• Ken Wilkins, who just got outmuscled by a duo of walk-ons, will probably not be ready to play this year.  There's a reason that Jibreel Black was playing some 5-tech DT, and the above type of play might be it.
• I like Michael Cox, but Giant Mistake #1 was Brandon Herron's complete and utter failure to even slow down the running back.  If you're a fifth year senior and can't slow down a guy who runs smack into your chest, hope is all but lost.  I guess I ought to cut Herron some slack because he did get bumped by Khoury, but still.
• Angles and positioning are of utmost importance.  It's one thing if Wilkins lines up in the right spot and gets double-teamed out of the hole.  But Giant Mistake #2 on this play was Marvin Robinson thinking he was in a race with Je'ron Stokes to get to the sideline.  By the time Stokes said, "Aw, I was just foolin', man, I ain't gonna race you," Robinson was the Tie Bomber to Cox's Millennium Falcon.  Robinson must maintain leverage on the runner, because he doesn't have the speed to get caught flat-footed and then make up for it.  There aren't many Big Ten running backs who will be chased down by Robinson if he doesn't take good angles.
• Good linebacker play makes this a 1- or 2-yard gain.  Good safety play makes this an 8-yard gain.  Bad linebacker play combined with bad safety play makes this a 68-yard touchdown run.

Fast forward to :56 to see the above play:

Five Questions for the Spring Game

Michigan fans should keep a close eye on sophomore safety
Carvin Johnson (#13) this Saturday

Everybody else is doing it, so I might as well join.  These are the five things I'm most interested to see on Saturday.

1. Who will play free safety?  And will they be any good at it?
I am on the record as thinking Ray Vinopal should be the starting free safety in 2011.  Of course, Vinopal transferred to Pitt a few weeks ago, and now there will be another brand new starter at FS this year.  Nobody appears to want the starting job; the punishment for earning the job is a broken ankle (Troy Woolfolk), transferring to a Big East school (Vinopal, Ryan Mundy), or public embarrassment and a forced position change to linebacker (Cam Gordon, Steve Brown).

Sophomore Carvin Johnson will be the likely starter at FS on Saturday.  He hasn't quite earned the hype that Gordon earned in spring last year, but that didn't turn out so well for Michigan, so maybe practice observers are showing some restraint when evaluating the safety position this year.  I have some questions about Johnson's long-term viability at the FS position - he's more of a strong safety, in my opinion - because of his speed.  But Brandent Englemon wasn't particularly fast, either, and I would be ecstatic if Johnson played as well as Englemon did in 2007.

2. Which of the running backs emerges from the pile?
I'm also on the Michael Cox bandwagon, which you probably know if you've ever visited the site before.  Last year Cox was the most impressive runner in the spring game (unofficially, he had 6 carries, 38 yards, and a 22-yard TD run).  For some reason unbeknownst to me, the number of carries he got in the spring game matched his entire 2010 regular season total, too (6 carries, 56 yards).  In competitive situations, that gives Cox approximately 25 carries, 207 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 rushes of 20+ yards (I don't have stats for the 2009 spring game).

But I've been touting Cox as the team's best runner since late 2009, so my opinion clearly doesn't carry much weight with the coaching staff.  Other options include Stephen Hopkins, who has reportedly shared first team duties this spring with Cox; Michael Shaw, who's really fast and not much else; and Vincent Smith, who's average at everything except height.  I don't really know which one will come out of the spring looking the best, and the coaches have essentially stated that nobody has separated himself from the pack.  For now I'm expecting to see Cox have the most impressive day, but I'm trying to have an open mind.

3. Who's going to play WILL?
Maybe I'm the only one, but I'm pretty nervous about the weakside linebacker position going into the 2011 season.  For all the criticism of Jonas Mouton the past couple seasons, I think he would have been perfect as an inside linebacker in this defense.  Unfortunately, he's graduating just as a suitable defense and coaching staff gets installed.  Meanwhile, his potential replacements include converted safeties, a transfer, and a guy poking his head out of the doghouse.

The starting WILL seems to be redshirt sophomore Mike Jones, a 208-pounder who looks like a safety walked up to the line of scrimmage.  But no, really, he's a linebacker.  In case you're wondering, that's approximately seven pounds lighter than Steve Brown was back in 2009 when he was an undersized outside linebacker.  Brandin Hawthorne, another converted safety, has seen some time at WILL but is even smaller at 203 lbs.  Marell Evans transferred back to Michigan from Hampton and has one year of eligibility left.  And finally, redshirt sophomore Isaiah Bell has seen a bit of playing time on the weakside, but he doesn't seem to be like a viable option.

Evans might be your starting WILL in September, but with incumbent MIKE starter Kenny Demens out this spring with a shoulder injury, the Hampton transfer has reportedly been the #1 middle 'backer.  I'll be curious to see how Jones and the others stand up to linemen and fullbacks, but hopefully they can channel some Ian Gold and Larry Foote action.

4. Will we see any positive signs from William Campbell?
In all honesty, Campbell ought to have been a redshirt freshman in 2010.  If that were the case, it wouldn't be quite so concerning that he hadn't done much on the field yet.  But now he's going to be a junior, and he had better start producing soon if it's going to happen.  I really can't think of a better staff in college football to get the most out of Campbell, so if it's going to happen for the big guy, this is his chance.  I'm not that familiar with defensive line coach Jerry Montgomery, but head coach Brady Hoke and defensive coordinator Greg Mattison both have outstanding track records with defensive linemen.

I mean no offense to Ricky Barnum - or whoever's lined up opposite of Campbell - but if there's anyone I hope to see get destroyed on Saturday, it's him.  If Campbell can turn into a playmaker at the 3-tech DT position, that takes some of the pressure off Michigan's rush ends and undersized weakside linebackers.  I have a hard time seeing someone with Campbell's outsized body and personality fade into obscurity, so let's hope his play matches his gusto.

5. Will Denard tie his shoelaces?  How close will the quarterback competition be?
I have no doubts that Denard Robinson will be the starting quarterback on Saturday.  You don't bench a Heisman candidate that quickly, no matter how good the backup plays.  I didn't believe the Devin Gardner hype in spring 2010 because true freshmen simply aren't very good, but now . . . I might put some stock in it. Gardner has always seemed to be a better fit in a pro-style offense than the spread, so I think this offense suits him more than Robinson.  Denard's decision-making and accuracy scare me a little bit, although I admit his improvement from 2009 to 2010 was pretty incredible.  There's a possibility that he will make a similar leap in 2011, but last year's spring practice reports about Denard were glowing.  This year's . . . not so much.

Gardner has the stature, the arm, and the poise to be a franchise quarterback.  In the long run, I fully expect him to be a better signal caller than Robinson.  Whether that happens in 2011, 2012, or beyond, I think #7 will carry on the tradition of great Michigan quarterbacks.  The problem with the QB situation is that even if Gardner proves to be the best quarterback on Saturday (and in August practices), Michigan doesn't have the depth at the position to move Robinson to running back or wide receiver.  Perhaps the two best athletes on the team are Michigan's only two quarterbacks.  I can think of worse problems.

Projected 2011 Depth Chart

Safety Josh Furman has been creating
some buzz this spring.

There have been a lot of questions about where Michigan's players fit in the new defensive system.  Offensive positions are a little easier to understand, since some position changes have been announced.  I'll attempt to clarify how the team looks right now, but keep in mind that it's early in spring practice and only one freshman is in town.  The order of the listed players is a guesstimate at the depth chart based on practice reports, video clips, and common sense.

QB: Denard Robinson (Jr.), Devin Gardner (So.), Russell Bellomy (Fr.)
RB: Michael Cox (RS Jr.), Stephen Hopkins (So.), Fitzgerald Toussaint (RS So.), Vincent Smith (Jr.), Michael Shaw (Sr.), Teric Jones (Jr. - injured), Thomas Rawls (Fr.), Justice Hayes (Fr.)
FB: John McColgan (RS Sr.), Stephen Hopkins (So.)
WR: Darryl Stonum (Sr.), Junior Hemingway (RS Sr.), Je'ron Stokes (Jr.), Jeremy Jackson (So.), Jerald Robinson (RS Fr.)
SR: Roy Roundtree (RS Jr.), Martavious Odoms (Sr.), Jeremy Gallon (RS So.), Kelvin Grady (RS Sr.), Terrence Robinson (RS Jr.), D.J. Williamson (RS Fr.), Drew Dileo (So.)
TE: Kevin Koger (Sr.), Brandon Moore (RS Jr.), Ricardo Miller (RS Fr.), Steve Watson (RS Sr.), Chris Barnett (Fr.)
LT: Taylor Lewan (RS So.)
LG: Ricky Barnum (RS Jr.), Elliott Mealer (RS Jr.), Tony Posada (Fr.)
C: David Molk (RS Sr.), Rocko Khoury (RS Jr.), Jack Miller (Fr.)
RG: Patrick Omameh (RS Jr.), Christian Pace (RS Fr.), Chris Bryant (Fr.)
RT: Mark Huyge (RS Sr.), Michael Schofield (RS So.)

5-tech DT: Ryan Van Bergen (RS Sr.), Ken Wilkins (RS Fr.), Keith Heitzman (Fr.), Chris Rock (Fr.)
1-tech DT: Mike Martin (Sr.), Quinton Washington (RS So.), Richard Ash (RS Fr.)
3-tech DT: William Campbell (Jr.), Richard Ash (RS Fr.), Will Heininger (RS Sr.)
WDE: Craig Roh (Jr.), Jibreel Black (So.), Brennen Beyer (Fr.)
SAM: Brandon Herron (RS Sr.), Cam Gordon (RS So.), J.B. Fitzgerald (Sr.), Jake Ryan (RS Fr.), Jordan Paskorz (RS Fr.), Frank Clark (Fr.)
MIKE: Kenny Demens (RS Jr.), Isaiah Bell (RS So.), Kellen Jones (Fr.), Desmond Morgan (Fr.)
WILL: Mike Jones (RS So.), Marell Evans (RS Sr.), Brandin Hawthorne (Jr.), Antonio Poole (Fr.)
CB: Troy Woolfolk (RS Sr.), Courtney Avery (So.), Terrence Talbott (RS Fr.), Blake Countess (Fr.), Raymon Taylor (Fr.)
CB: J.T. Floyd (RS Jr.), Cullen Christian (So.), Greg Brown (Fr.), Delonte Hollowell (Fr.)
FS: Carvin Johnson (So.), Thomas Gordon (RS So.), Tamani Carter (Fr.)
SS: Jordan Kovacs (RS Jr.), Josh Furman (RS Fr.), Marvin Robinson (So.)

NOTES:

• I have seen Hawthorne playing both safety and WILL.
• Greg Mattison stated that the safeties must know both positions (FS and SS) and the defensive tackles must know both positions (3-tech and 1-tech)
• Michael Shaw, Teric Jones, Troy Woolfolk, and J.T. Floyd have missed all or most of practice so far, so their statuses are a little up in the air.  Shaw might even be the starter at running back, but it's impossible to tell where he'll fit right now.

Poll Results: Who should back up Cam Gordon at FS?

Marvin Robinson (center)

After Vladimir Emilien was granted his release to transfer last week, I asked the question, Who should back up Cameron Gordon at free safety?

Here were the results:

61% chose freshman Marvin Robinson
34% chose freshman Ray Vinopal
4% chose sophomore Brandin Hawthorne
0% chose Other

My choice would be Robinson.  I think Robinson is a better overall athlete than Vinopal.  And according to Troy Woolfolk, Robinson was a ballhawk during voluntary 7-on-7s during the summer.  However, the coaches have Vinopal at #2 on the depth chart.

Thanks for voting!

2010 Countdown: #52 Brandin Hawthorne

Name: Brandin Hawthorne
Height: 6'
Weight: 202 lbs.
High school: Pahokee High School in Pahokee, FL
Position: Safety
Class: Sophomore
Jersey number: #7
Last year: I ranked him #53 and said he'd redshirt. Hawthorne played special teams in four games but didn't accrue any statistics.

Hawthorne, a sophomore safety, should have redshirted in 2009. He didn't see any game action after September, having only participated on special teams coverage units in the first four games. Perhaps Hawthorne suffered an undisclosed injury, but it seems odd to burn a kid's redshirt only to run down the field a dozen times.

Hawthorne was a practice time backup SAM last year, but has since been converted to safety. When Vladimir Emilien tweaked his knee in the spring, Hawthorne moved from strong safety to free safety and backed up Cameron Gordon playing center field. I doubt that #7 will be playing free safety at any point this season, as I don't think he has the speed to cover a deep portion of the field. He's also a backup at strong safety and seems to be in no danger of winning a starting job this season. But I do expect him to run down the field maybe two dozen times this year. Maybe he'll even make a tackle or two.

Prediction for 2010: Special teams coverage duty

What will Michigan's defense look like in 2010?

News this past week has percolated from insiders to Michigan fans that safety Mike Williams will be changing positions from "safety" (he played both strong and free safety last year) to "spur." This has caused some confusion for Michigan fans, some of whom are concerned that Michigan will employ the 3-3-5 stack look that Rich Rodriguez utilized in his time at West Virginia.

Let me assure you that this will not be the case, at least not in my opinion. I expect Michigan's base defensive package in 2010 to be a 4-2-5 defense, and hopefully the remainder of my post will explain what personnel we should see this coming season and why.

DEFENSIVE LINE

First of all, the defensive line will likely be Michigan's strength once again in 2010. Michigan's best player (Brandon Graham) departs, but there are capable components remaining. I expect Ryan Van Bergen to slide over to the strongside defensive end from his old defensive tackle position. Mike Martin should become the 3-tech defensive tackle, who lines up on the guard's outside shoulder; this will give him a chance to penetrate against slower guards and avoid the double-teams he faced at nose tackle. Either sophomore William Campbell or senior Renaldo Sagesse will play nose tackle, and sophomore Craig Roh will play weakside defensive end.

LINEBACKERS
With only two "capable" (and I use that term loosely) linebackers returning, it would behoove Michigan to employ as few linebackers as possible. Jonas Mouton and Obi Ezeh are both fifth-year seniors, and while they both underperformed last season, their backups (Kevin Leach and J.B. Fitzgerald) weren't much better, if at all. Last year's starting SAM Steve Brown has moved on, and his replacements were to be one of two second-year players (Brandin Hawthorne, Mike Jones) or incoming freshman Josh Furman, who won't arrive on campus until June. That's a lot of youth and inexperience. Further evidence that last year's SAM position will disappear lies in the fact that Mike Jones will be competing at the weakside linebacker position in the spring. I sincerely doubt the coaches would stock such an important position as the SAM with only Hawthorne and Furman.

CORNERBACK
Recent reports indicate that Troy Woolfolk, who played deep safety last year, will start spring ball at the cornerback position. While I don't think that Woolfolk will remain at corner through the season, this makes sense for spring ball. Why? Michigan's only returning scholarship cornerbacks are Justin Turner and J.T. Floyd, and Floyd would likely be a safety if the depth weren't so shallow. Reinforcements arrive in the summer in the forms of freshmen Cullen Christian, Demar Dorsey, Courtney Avery, and Terrence Talbott. Unfortunately, no cornerbacks (or defensive players, period) enrolled in January.

SAFETY
I'm going to break this down into three components, since terminology and positioning will likely change for this season. If you remember, last year's "free safety" was an in-the-box player, like Jordan Kovacs. The "strong safety" was the deep safety, which was manned by Troy Woolfolk before he moved to cornerback halfway through the season.

Spur
Spur is the name used to define a traditional strong safety-type player, someone who can play the role of a run-stopping outside linebacker but with better cover skills. However, the spur plays on the weak side of the defensive formation. Therefore, this year's spur will be much like 2009's free safety. As mentioned above, Mike Williams will play spur in the spring, and he could very well be our starter to begin the season. Other players who will likely play spur are redshirt freshmen Thomas Gordon and Brandin Hawthorne. He would usually have outside contain against the run. Both the spur and the boundary safety (see below) could have a deep zone against the pass, depending on the coverage called. In man coverage, he would have the #2 receiver (the second receiver from the sideline).

Deep safety
I hesitate to call this "free safety," but that's basically what it is. This is the safety who has the deep middle in a Cover 3, a deep half in Cover 2, etc. This spot will most likely be filled by Vladimir Emilien in the spring, but it's also where I expect to see Troy Woolfolk in September. I also think Cameron Gordon will get a tryout at deep safety, although eventually he'll likely play closer to the line. This is the safety who has the deep middle in a Cover 3, a deep half in Cover 2, etc. In straight-up man coverage, he could have the #3 receiver (the third receiver from the sideline) against a trips formation, but defensive coordinator Greg Robinson likely won't put him in that kind of call.

Boundary safety
I hesitate to call this "strong safety," but that's basically what it is. Jordan Kovacs, Teric Jones, and others will get a shot at the strong safety position. This player will likely have outside contain against the run and the strongside flat in zone coverage. In man coverage, he would have the #2 receiver (the second receiver from the sideline), whether it's a slot receiver or a tight end.

What does it all mean?
Well, what it all means is that the coaches are trying to get the best players on the field. They think that the team would be better off with someone like redshirt junior Mike Williams on the field than youngsters like Brandin Hawthorne and Josh Furman. And they also realize that there's no point in removing a player from the most talented and experienced unit (the defensive line) to put in an extra defensive back, which they would have to do in a 3-3-5.

If you're looking for further resources on the 4-2-5 defense, check out The Football-Defense Report, which is where I got the diagram above.

Statistical Analysis of 2010 Recruiting: Part III

As I was keeping track of Michigan's recruiting efforts throughout the 2010 cycle, I began to wonder where Michigan has the most success in recruiting. The obvious answers would be "in state" and "near home" and those answers held true, to no one's surprise.

You can see in the above chart (click to enlarge) that Michigan got the best bang for its buck in contiguous states like Wisconsin and Ohio. Pennsylvania is #5 on the list.

Sitting there at #4, though, is Louisiana. Michigan got two of the six prospects who were offered, slot receiver Drew Dileo and safety Carvin Johnson. The other four were WR Trovon Reed (Auburn), QB Munchie Legaux (Cincinnati), DE Jordan Allen (LSU), and CB Ronnie Vinson (LSU). Of those four, only Legaux didn't have an LSU offer. As I said in yesterday's post, kids in the deep south tend to stay in the deep south if a decent local program offers. Reed spurned LSU for a school in neighboring Alabama, but Allen and Vinson jumped at the opportunity to play in the Bayou.

Moving on to Florida, that percentage might be a bit alarming. The Wolverines extended more offers to Florida than any other individual state by far - 46 offers in all, beating Ohio by 16 - but Michigan's success rate in the Sunshine State was just below 7%. With all three commitments from Florida being 4-stars (Demar Dorsey, Marvin Robinson, Richard Ash), the kids Michigan has stolen have been elite talents. But this is something to watch in the coming years. If Rich Rodriguez continues to offer a high volume of kids from Florida, hopefully the commitments he gets remain elite players. I would hate to see the coaching staff spend such significant time and effort on Florida only to get middling recruits from the state. That being said, the coaches have done a good job there over the past couple years. They've established a pipeline from Pahokee (Martavious Odoms, Brandin Hawthorne, Vincent Smith, Richard Ash) and could be in the process of building a pipeline from Dr. Phillips High School in Orlando (Ricardo Miller transferred from Dr. Phillips to Ann Arbor Pioneer after committing, and 2011 prospects Demetrius Hart and Hasean Clinton-Dix have both been offered).

Rodriguez knows what side his bread is buttered on. He'll continue to get a high volume of recruits from Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and he'll try to pluck a few elite talents out of Florida. Those efforts will be complemented by an occasional commitment from various other states.