2013 NFL Draft Preview: Michigan

Denard Robinson

Right here is the one . . . the only . . . exhibition of my non-expert opinion on where Michigan's players will end up in (or out) of the NFL Draft.

Denard Robinson, QB/WR/RB
Robinson has some questions about what position(s) he'll be able to play in the NFL.  It's pretty clear that he won't be a full-time quarterback (although certain packages or plays wouldn't be out of the question), but he might lack the hands and route running skills to be a wide receiver or the bulk to be a running back.  My guess is that he will carve out a career somewhat like that of the Cleveland Browns' Josh Cribbs, a guy who isn't a star but contributes as a receiver, runner, and kickoff returner.
Best guess: 2nd round, #59 overall to New England Patriots

William Campbell, DT
Campbell measured in at 6'5", 311 lbs., ran a 5.15 forty, and did 35 reps on the bench press at Michigan's pro day.  He was not very productive at Michigan and struggled to win a starting role, but he is very large and shows impressive power when he decides to stay low and play hard.  There's a chance that Robinson will be the only player drafted out of Michigan, but if there are others, the best bet appears to be Campbell for the next highest draft slot.  He would fit best as a 3-technique in a 4-3 defense, in my opinion.
Best guess: 6th round, #188 overall to Chicago Bears

Jordan Kovacs, S
The 5'11", 205 lb. Kovacs was highly productive as a tackler at Michigan, although his pass coverage leaves something to be desired.  He ran a 4.63 at Michigan's pro day and showed impressive leaping ability with a 35" vertical, but that athleticism doesn't really show itself on the field.  Kovacs played strong safety at Michigan, and that's likely where he would fit best in the NFL - as an in-the-box safety who doesn't have to worry too much about deep coverage.  He could also be productive on special teams coverage.
Best guess: 7th round, #247 overall to Baltimore Ravens

Craig Roh, DE
Roh measured at 6'4", 271 lbs. at Michigan's pro day and ran the forty in 4.91; somewhat disappointingly, he only put up 20 reps of 225 lbs. on the bench press.  He changes direction fairly well for a strongside end, but he lacks pass rush moves beyond the occasional bull rush.  Added weight seems to have slowed him down throughout his career, so he may not be able to bulk up into a 3-4 defensive end; his best bet might be to try to make it as a slightly undersized strongside end in a 4-3.
Best guess: Undrafted

Patrick Omameh, OG
Omameh is a 6'4", 303 lb. prospect who was a four-year starter at Michigan, but he only put up 22 reps at Michigan's pro day.  He's not particularly adept at pulling, but he has pretty good lateral movement and can stay low.  If he can increase his strength and add a little bit of weight, I think Omameh can latch on as a backup somewhere, perhaps in a zone running scheme like Houston's.
Best guess: Undrafted

Kenny Demens, LB
Demens stands 6'1" and 245 lbs. with a 4.82 forty and 26 reps on the bench press; he also had a 33.5" vertical and a 4.54 shuttle time.  He's not particularly quick at diagnosing plays, but he is a thumping hitter with surprisingly good coverage skills.  Demens didn't make enough plays at Michigan to really stand out, but he could earn a shot as a middle linebacker in a 4-3; his body and athleticism also make him seem like perhaps an inside linebacker in a 3-4, but his lack of quick diagnoses make that a questionable proposition because he would have to shed linemen.
Best guess: Undrafted

Roy Roundtree, WR
Roundtree is a 6'1", 178 lb. receiver prospect who ran a 4.58 forty at Michigan's pro day, where he also put up just 10 reps on the bench.  That forty time isn't very impressive, but he was deceptively quick at Michigan, breaking off several 70+ yard receptions throughout his career.  He has struggled to add weight at any point in his college career, and NFL defensive backs will probably be able to push him around pretty easily.  He could perhaps help out as a slot receiver for someone, but he's not fast enough or physical enough to work on the outside, in my opinion.
Best guess: Undrafted

J.T. Floyd, CB
Floyd is a 5'10", 190 lb. defensive back who put up less than stellar numbers at Michigan's pro day - a 4.79 forty and 5 reps on the bench press.  It's no secret that I have never been impressed with Floyd as a football player, so I won't beat around the bush: I don't think he has a shot at getting drafted, and his best chance would be to hook on with a team that runs a Tampa Cover Two where he can sit in the flat on a lot of plays.
Best guess: Undrafted

Ricky Barnum, OG
Barnum is a 6'2", 297 lb. interior lineman who earned good reviews for his ability to get out and run, but he ran just a 5.53 forty at Michigan's pro day; he did, however, put up a respectable 25 reps on the bench press.  He may have been best suited for the zone running offense that Rich Rodriguez employed, but most of his playing time was earned in 2011 and 2012, when he was expected to be a powerful, drive-blocking guard.  He struggled to get much movement and does not appear likely to get drafted, but perhaps a zone running team will give him a shot.
Best guess: Undrafted

Brandin Hawthorne, LB
Hawthorne is a 6'0", 220 lb. prospect who benched 225 lbs. an impressive 27 times at Michigan's pro day.  He was an occasional starter at Michigan, but fell behind freshmen at weakside linebacker in each of his last two seasons.  The chances of him making it in the NFL are slim, but if he does, it will probably be as a weakside linebacker in a 4-3 and/or a special teamer.
Best guess: Undrafted

Vincent Smith, RB
Smith is a 5'6", 172 lb. player who ran a 4.85 at Michigan's pro day in March, although he did a little better with a 4.31 shuttle time; he also had a 30" vertical and did 14 reps on the bench.  He earned a starting job as a feature back in 2010, but that role dissipated when Brady Hoke was hired; since the beginning of 2011, he was mostly a pass protector and third down back.  Without the speed to make big plays in the NFL as a third down back or returner, Smith might get just a cursory glance by a few NFL teams.
Best guess: Undrafted

Elliott Mealer, OG
Mealer, at 6'4" and 321 lbs., ran just as fast (5.54 seconds) as Barnum, despite being two inches taller and 24 lbs. heavier.  Mealer also put up 29 repetitions on the bench, which is a good number.  He played center in 2012, but he seemed to struggle getting off the ball; however, I do have to say that his snaps themselves were excellent.  He also had some mental gaffes, but that was perhaps in part due to playing mostly tackle and guard early in his career before becoming the full-time center.  If Mealer is able to latch on in the NFL, I think it will be as a right guard for a team that likes to run the ball.
Best guess: Undrafted

OTHERS EXPECTED TO GO UNDRAFTED:
Mike Kwiatkowski, TE
Brandon Moore, TE

Review of 2012 Season Predictions

This guy led the team in sacks.

Nobody else probably cares, but this is one of the things I enjoy most about the post-season: looking back and seeing how many things I got right or wrong.

Leading Rusher
Prediction: Denard Robinson, 1200 yards
Actual: Denard Robinson, 1266 yards

Leading Receiver
Prediction: Roy Roundtree, 750 yards
Actual: Jeremy Gallon, 829 yards (Roundtree had 580)

Leading Tackler
Prediction: Kenny Demens, 90 tackles
Actual: Jake Ryan, 88 tackles (Demens had 82)

Leading Sacker
Prediction: Jake Ryan, 5.5 sacks
Actual: Jake Ryan, 4.5 sacks

Leading Interceptor
Prediction: J.T. Floyd and Jordan Kovacs, 2 interceptions (tie)
Actual: Thomas Gordon and Raymon Taylor, 2 interceptions (tie); (Kovacs had 1, Floyd had 0)

All-Big Ten First Team
Prediction: Taylor Lewan, Denard Robinson
Actual: Taylor Lewan, Patrick Omameh, Will Hagerup (Denard Robinson was Honorable Mention)

Leading Scorer (non-QB, non-kicker)
Prediction: Fitzgerald Toussaint
Actual: Fitzgerald Toussaint

Breakout Offensive Player
Prediction: Thomas Rawls
Actual: Devin Funchess. Funchess didn't light the world on fire, but he showed flashes of what he can do if Michigan can get him the ball in the coming years.  Rawls didn't show much elusiveness or much power.

Breakout Defensive Player
Prediction: Thomas Gordon
Actual: Quinton Washington.  Washington went from a bit of an afterthought to a viable Big Ten nose tackle.  While he didn't put up great numbers (32 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack), he took up blockers in the middle of the line and didn't get blown off the ball.

Most Disappointing Offensive Player
Prediction: Jerald Robinson
Actual: Fitzgerald Toussaint.  Robinson was disappointing and then left the team, so he was clearly a disappointment.  But the starting running back, who averaged 5.6 yards/carry in 2011, dropped all the way to 4.0 yards/carry this season.

Most Disappointing Defensive Player
Prediction: Jibreel Black
Actual: J.T. Floyd.  Floyd didn't make a single interception this season and got himself suspended for the Outback Bowl.

Alabama
Prediction: Loss
Actual: Loss

Air Force
Prediction: Win
Actual: Win

UMass
Prediction: Win
Actual: Win

Notre Dame
Prediction: Win
Actual: Loss

Purdue
Prediction: Win
Actual: Win

Illinois
Prediction: Win
Actual: Win

Michigan State
Prediction: Loss
Actual: Win

Nebraska
Prediction: Win
Actual: Loss

Minnesota
Prediction: Win
Actual: Win

Northwestern
Prediction: Win
Actual: Win

Iowa
Prediction: Win
Actual: Win

Ohio State
Prediction: Loss
Actual: Loss

CONCLUSION
Out of 23 predictions, I got 12.5 right.  I'm like Nostradamus or something.

J.T. Floyd, #8

J.T. Floyd

HIGH SCHOOL
Floyd attended Greenville (SC) J.L. Mann.  Throughout his career, he made 139 tackles and 13 interceptions, along with 127 catches for 2,208 yards and 16 interceptions.  He committed to Rich Rodriguez on January 31, 2008, over offers from Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina State, South Carolina, and Tennessee.  He was a Rivals 3-star athlete and a Scout 3-star/#75 safety.

COLLEGE
Floyd redshirted as a freshman in 2008.  As a redshirt freshman in 2009, he started two games and made 17 tackles and 1 pass breakup.  In part because of attrition at the cornerback position, Floyd started nine games in 2010, making 66 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble, and 4 pass breakups; he broke his ankle in practice prior to the Illinois game and missed the final four games of the year.  As a redshirt junior in 2011, he returned from injury to start twelve games at boundary corner, making 48 tackles, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, and 8 passes defensed.  As a senior in 2012, he started the twelve regular season games and tallied 48 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and 5 pass breakups; he was suspended for the Outback Bowl against South Carolina.

CAREER STATS
179 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 3 interceptions returned for 59 yards, 2 forced fumbles, and 18 passes defensed

AWARDS
All-Big Ten Honorable Mention (2011, 2012)

SUMMARY
It's no secret that I was never a fan of Floyd's abilities, and that started at the time he was recruited.  His lack of speed and change-of-direction ability always made me think he would be best suited for free safety, but there was never really an opportunity to bench Floyd.  Unfortunately, due to attrition and poor recruiting, he was always the best option to start.  Unlike when I was calling for Vincent Smith to give up carries to Michael Shaw, Michael Cox, and Fitzgerald Toussaint, the guys behind Floyd were tiny, inexperienced, and/or just not very good.  Floyd turned into a three-year starter at the position and got a couple of all-conference honorable mentions out of the deal, which was perhaps the best we could hope for from a guy with his limited physical capabilities.

I WILL REMEMBER HIM FOR . . . 
. . . getting suspended for the Outback Bowl.  I find it inexcusable that he was silly enough to get suspended (allegedly for smoking marijuana) for his final college game, and it very well might have been the key reason that Michigan lost a close game to South Carolina.

PROJECTION
Floyd was already a borderline NFL prospect, likely to get a shot as an undrafted free agent simply because he started three years at a school like Michigan.  His on-field production and testing numbers likely won't garner much attention, but he could latch on as a practice squad player.  The suspension thing can't help, but that type of thing isn't a death sentence for an NFL career.

South Carolina 33, Michigan 28

Denard Robinson had a solid final game as a Wolverine (image via AnnArbor.com)

Thanks to the seniors.  For the most part, this group of seniors is made up of stellar kids.  I really like Denard Robinson, Jordan Kovacs, Craig Roh, Vincent Smith, Patrick Omameh, Roy Roundtree, etc.  That group of kids entered school around the time that I started this blog and really started concentrating on evaluating players and such, so it's odd to see them graduating.  They accomplished some great things, and I'm looking forward to watching some of them on the next level.

J.T. Floyd really hurt his team.  I never really cared about the suspension of Hagerup.  It was a dumb move on his part, but I really think that Matt Wile is just as talented, if not more so.  But Floyd, a fifth year senior, hurt the team in more ways than one.  I've said all along that Floyd was susceptible to the deep ball because of his lack of speed, so I don't know that he would have been able to curtail the deep throws that beat Raymon Taylor, Courtney Avery, and Jarrod Wilson.  What I do know is that the re-shuffling of the defensive backfield due to Floyd's absence hurt the defense numerous times.  Avery is a pretty good slot corner, but he struggles every time the team puts him on the outside.  With Floyd out, Avery moved to the outside, safety Thomas Gordon moved down to the slot, and freshman Jarrod Wilson came in to play safety.  Floyd's suspension not only hurt the team at his cornerback spot, but it diminished the quality of play at slot corner and safety, too.

Hooray for Al Borges.  I didn't agree with every play call or personnel decision by Borges, but he came out with a quality game plan and plenty of wrinkles.  Unfortunately, Michigan lacked the horses and the execution to get the job done.  There was a Statue of Liberty hand-off to Denard Robinson and a fake jet sweep screen to Devin Funchess; Borges moved Denard Robinson around to QB, RB, FB, and WR; and there were some funky special teams plays concocted by the coaching staff to get first downs.  Overall, the players just didn't execute.  South Carolina got steady pressure on Devin Gardner, Jadeveon Clowney made a couple key plays, and Gardner missed some open receivers.  You can blame some of that stuff on the coordinator, I guess, but a lot of it is on the players.

Holy hell attrition. Out of 24 starters to begin the season, Michigan was missing 5 for the Outback Bowl.  Cornerback Blake Countess, Floyd, middle linebacker Kenny Demens, running back Fitzgerald Toussaint, and Hagerup were all out for this game, along with a solid special teamer in Brandin Hawthorne and part-time fullback Stephen Hopkins.  Running back Thomas Rawls also missed the game, and quarterback Denard Robinson could muster only one measly pass attempt because of his elbow injury.  I know excuses are lame, but the Outback Bowl squad was really just a shell of what it was on September 1.  South Carolina was banged up some (their starting running back and right tackle), but their losses were fewer.  In a game decided with 11 seconds left, it's quite possible the outcome would have been different if a couple of those guys were still available.

Denard needed new cleats. Robinson has always tested the laws of gravity with the way he leans to cut back, but I didn't see anyone else having a problem with the footing yesterday.  I'm not sure why he struggled so much, but there were some plays available that he just didn't make because he slipped and fell.  I thought they had the issue fixed after a couple carries in the second half, but then he want back to looking like he was playing football on ice.

Penalties were a problem.  Michigan only had four penalties, but they netted South Carolina an additional 55 yards.  These weren't 5-yard offsides or illegal procedure calls.  Taylor Lewan took two big penalties, Joe Bolden made a silly late hit on Connor Shaw, and Ricky Barnum grabbed a defensive lineman's facemask and held on for the duration of the play.  Lewan was a penalty machine in 2010, got rid of those tendencies in 2011, and seems to have regressed now in 2012.  I like Lewan a lot and I know he's probably gone for the NFL, but I think he had a better season last year.

Running back is a gaping void.  There has been some recent buzz about Drake Johnson, who redshirted this season, but otherwise, the running back position is wide open for 2013.  Running backs Vincent Smith and Justice Hayes combined for just 8 carries and 6 yards; Rawls didn't play at all; Toussaint will be coming off a nasty broken leg..  Johnson is a bit of a wild card, but none of these guys look like starter material except a healthy Toussaint.  Wyatt Shallman isn't the answer, either, so I'm hoping DeVeon Smith is better than I expect or that Derrick Green commits in the next month.

Greg Mattison has had better days.  He was sort of hamstrung by a lack of personnel, but I wasn't a fan of Mattison's strategy late in the game.  He was sending blitzes because he realized that his defensive backs aren't very good, but Michigan appeared to be doing better when they rushed two or three guys and put eight or nine back in coverage.  It was a mistake to count on his young cornerbacks and athletically limited safeties to hold up when they've been burned again and again.  If it's me in that situation, I put four guys deep, rush three, and hope that South Carolina can only complete a short pass.  They were 0/2 on field goals up to that point, and that kicker's confidence had to be waning.  Make them complete something short, and then force them to chuck something into the end zone or try a pressure-packed field goal.

Overall, a slightly disappointing season.  The schedule was tough.  Michigan's four regular season losses came against teams that were 46-4 prior to yesterday; two of those teams are playing for the national championship, and another went 12-0 but was banned from the postseason.  But Michigan had very real chances to beat Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Ohio State, and couldn't pull out any of those close games.  The season ended with another close loss to a solid but flawed South Carolina team.  I predicted a 9-3 year, and I predicted the loss to South Carolina, so my projection would have been 9-4.  Not a huge difference from 8-5, but five losses is too many.  Next year should be better, though.

Floyd, Hagerup, and Hawthorne suspended for Outback Bowl

J.T. Floyd got himself suspended for the upcoming bowl game

Fifth year senior cornerback J.T. Floyd, junior punter Will Hagerup, and senior linebacker Brandin Hawthorne have all been suspended for the Outback Bowl against South Carolina, which will be played on New Year's Day.

Floyd has started all 12 regular season games at boundary corner, making 48 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and 5 pass breakups.  However, I have been a pretty persistent and vocal critic about his play, because he lacks speed and playmaking ability.  He's also not a very physical player, and he was beaten deep several times this year, although the Big Ten's mediocre quarterbacks rarely connected.  His replacement will likely be Raymon Taylor at the boundary corner spot, with Courtney Avery probably stepping in at field corner.  This could also cause recent position switcher Dennis Norfleet or sophomore Delonte Hollowell to get some playing time on defense.

Hagerup is the Big Ten's best punter, averaging 45.0 yards per punt.  Thirteen of his 33 punts went farther than 50 yards.  His replacement will probably be Matt Wile, who averaged just 31.9 yards per punt, but 7/9 of those landed inside the 20-yard line.  Last season Wile averaged 41.6 yards per punt when Hagerup was suspended for the first four games of the season.

Hawthorne was completely limited to special teams this season, making 19 total tackles.  As a small-ish, speedy linebacker, he was very solid in kickoff coverage.  But he has clashed with coaches at times, made some halfhearted plays, and generally played/behaved his way out of regular playing time.  Despite having some playmaking ability - witness his one-handed interception in April's spring game - he was surpassed at inside linebacker by freshman Joe Bolden, freshman James Ross, and a guy who has yet to make a single positive play in a Michigan uniform, Mike Jones.

The biggest loss might be Floyd, because Michigan had already been without starting cornerback Blake Countess for the entire season due to an ACL tear.  Now Michigan's #3 and #4 corners to start the year will probably line up for the majority of the Outback Bowl, and guys who have played sparingly will be forced into action while other players shuffle around.

Preview: Michigan at Ohio State

Rush Offense vs. Ohio State Rush Defense
Michigan is the #36 rushing offense in the country with 195 yards/game, but the rushing offense is perhaps in a dire situation.  Starting running back Fitzgerald Toussaint (514 yards, 5 touchdowns) will miss the rest of the season with a lower leg injury, which leaves the running back duties to Thomas Rawls (240 yards, 4 touchdowns, Vincent Smith (27 carries, 76 yards, 2 touchdowns), and Justice Hayes (16 carries, 83 yards, 1 touchdown).  The numbers don't look too bad, but most of Rawls's yards have come in garbage time and he has struggled against decent teams.  The wild card is Denard Robinson, who started at running back last week and - mostly from the quarterback position - has rushed for 1,044 yards and 6 touchdowns, good enough for the 15th-most yards in the nation despite missing 2.5 games due to injury.  He's clearly the best running option, but he may not be able to run Michigan's full complement of plays.  The Buckeyes have the #17 rush defense and have given up just 117 yards/game.  Defensive tackles Johnathan Hankins and Garrett Goebel don't get a ton of penetration, but they are space eaters who have combined for 8 tackles for loss.  Defensive end John Simon and linebacker Ryan Shazier have each made 14.5 tackles for loss, and Shazier has improved significantly since last year, when he played as a freshman.  The Buckeyes should be able to handle Michigan's interior offensive line, so the Wolverines will have to attack the edges and through the air.
Advantage: Ohio State

Pass Offense vs. Ohio State Pass Defense
Michigan has been improving incrementally in the passing game and now sits at #95 with 201 yards/game; quarterback Devin Gardner has been the impetus for that rise, and he threw for 314 yards and 3 touchdowns against Iowa last week.  Wide receivers Jeremy Gallon (34 catches, 617 yards, 2 touchdowns) and Roy Roundtree (25 catches, 461 yards, 2 touchdowns) have stepped up their games recently, and tight end Devin Funchess has been a productive red zone target.  The Buckeyes are #84 in pass defense (250 yards/game), but #28 in pass efficiency defense.  Simon has made 9 sacks and Shazier has made 4.  Meanwhile, cornerback Travis Howard has 4 interceptions on the season, although 3 of them came in the Buckeyes' first two games.  Michigan will have to pay extra attention to Simon and roll Gardner out to get him on the edge, but Gardner should be able to find some success with crossing routes and play action.
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. Ohio State Rush Offense
The Wolverines give up 151 yards/game, good enough for 51st in the country.  However, that stat has been dropping since a couple rough outings early in the year.  The middle of Michigan's defense has been stout, but starting defensive tackles Quinton Washington and William Campbell have combined for just 3 tackles for loss.  They don't get consistent penetration, but they do hold their ground pretty well, which allows the inside linebackers to flow to the ball and make tackles.  Teams can gain yards running the ball, but usually in small increments.  Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have the #9 rushing offense and gain 245 yards/game, with quarterback Braxton Miller running for 110 yards/game and running back Carlos Hyde pretty close behind with 91 yards/game.  They like to run the option with Miller, who is very adept at pulling the ball out of Hyde's belly and making things happen on the edge.  Michigan should keep Hyde pretty well in check early, until/unless Miller starts to gash them.  Miller is also very adept at tucking the ball and scrambling, which hurt Michigan last year; that will continue to be an issue, because the Wolverines don't really have the athletes at defensive end to keep Miller hemmed in.
Advantage: Ohio State

Pass Defense vs. Ohio State Pass Offense
Michigan is #1 in overall pass defense (152 yards/game), but #30 in pass efficiency defense.  Free safety Thomas Gordon and cornerback Raymon Taylor each have 2 interceptions to tie for the team lead, but nobody in the secondary is known as a true ball hawk or a shutdown player in coverage.  The linebackers are pretty solid in coverage, but Michigan lacks a strong pass rush.  Defensive end Craig Roh has 4 sacks, outside linebacker Jake Ryan has 3.5, and safety Jordan Kovacs is next with 2.  The Buckeyes are the #100 passing offense with 180 yards/game and they're #57 in passing efficiency, but they still have dangerous players on the outside.  The Buckeyes abused Michigan's back seven in last season's matchup, although that was a different offensive system and they had DeVier Posey.  Wideout Corey Brown (52 catches, 574 yards, 2 touchdowns) is more of a possession guy, but Devin Smith (28 catches, 555 yards, 6 touchdowns) has some explosive abilities and might be just as good as Posey was.  Poor quarterback play has prevented Michigan from getting beaten too badly on the outside, but I've been dreading the moment when it would hurt Michigan; there's a very good chance that the Wolverines' shortcomings on the outside will be exposed on Saturday.  I don't think Taylor and his counter J.T. Floyd will be able to stick with Smith for the entire game, and Michigan's safeties are just so-so in coverage.  The Buckeyes will run the ball a lot, so they probably won't sit back there and throw 50 times to win, but they'll get some big plays through the air.
Advantage: Ohio State

Roster Notes

• Michigan recruited OG Darryl Baldwin, RB Warren Ball, DT Michael Bennett, S Devan Bogard, CB Corey Brown, WR Corey Brown, S Christian Bryant, OT Taylor Decker, OT Kyle Dodson, RB Bri'onte Dunn, DT Garrett Goebel, LB Curtis Grant, CB Doran Grant, DT Joel Hale, RB Jordan Hall, OT Marcus Hall, DT Johnathan Hankins, TE Jeff Heuerman, QB Cardale Jones, QB Braxton Miller, DE Steve Miller, OG Joey O'Connor, LB David Perkins, DE Se'Von Pittman, CB Armani Reeves, DT Tommy Schutt, LB Ryan Shazier, WR Devin Smith, RB Rod Smith, DE Noah Spence, TE Jake Stoneburner, S Ron Tanner, TE Nick Vannett, and DT Adolphus Washington
• Players from Michigan include Grosse Pointe (MI) Grosse Pointe Farms OT Reid Fragel and Detroit (MI) Southeastern DT Johnathan Hankins

Predictions

• Denard Robinson starts at running back but gets a couple chances to throw
• Devin Gardner gets flustered by the pass rush and forced into a couple bad throws
• Ohio State makes some big plays over top of the defense
• Michigan holds down Carlos Hyde well, but Miller wins the game with his feet
• Ohio State 24, Michigan 17

A Look Back . . . 

• Last year's game recap
• Grades for Michigan's defense last year
• Last year's game awards

Michigan 35, Minnesota 13

Devin Gardner was solid in replacing injured starter Denard Robinson (image via Bleacher Report)

Thanks goodness for Devin Gardner.  I am fairly confident that Russell Bellomy could not have duplicated Gardner's performance from yesterday.  The junior wide receiver/quarterback finished 12/18 for 234 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception; he also ran 10 times for 21 yards and 1 touchdown.  Gardner obviously isn't the same type of electrifying runner that Denard Robinson is, but that passing performance was pretty much on par with anything Robinson has done this year.  Gardner had three passes of 45-plus yards and did a great job of keeping plays alive with his feet.  There are still things to improve (the one INT was a poor decision, he holds onto the ball too long sometimes, etc.), but he looked much more ready to play QB than Bellomy has at any point.  This should give Michigan fans hope.  And I know I beat this drum a lot, but how much more excited would you be if Gardner were a redshirt sophomore instead of a true junior?  That burned redshirt in 2010 really irks me . . .

Michigan's receivers stepped up when needed.  This was something we haven't seen in the past few weeks, but I don't remember a single drop in this game.  The receivers pulled in some nice receptions, including Jerald Robinson's sliding 22-yarder and a couple balls caught in traffic by Jeremy Gallon, Drew Dileo, and Roy Roundtree.  Gardner has a stronger arm than Bellomy, and I think the receivers are probably a little more comfortable catching Gardner's darts than Bellomy's soft tosses.

Here is where I grumble about cornerbacks.  Teams have been picking on J.T. Floyd for the past few weeks, and once again he was beaten several times.  Minnesota freshman quarterback Philip Nelson missed on several, but sometimes it didn't matter because Floyd bailed him out by getting called for pass interference two or three times.  Raymon Taylor didn't have a great game, either, and picked up a pass interference call himself.  I am looking forward to a time when Michigan can put two solid corners on the field at the same time.  Taylor has a chance to be one, but it's been a while since the Wolverines had two.

Don't say Michigan never gets the benefit of refs' poor calls.  Jeremy Gallon's 10-yard touchdown catch wasn't a catch; the ball was moving in his hands the entire time.  Roy Roundtree's 47-yard catch probably wasn't a catch; the ball was moving the entire time.  However, both of them were called completions on the field, and they were difficult to overturn.  In both cases, if they had been called incomplete on the field, I think they would have been upheld as being incomplete.

Jake Ryan wheee!  Ryan struggled a little bit early in the game, but he turned it on afterward.  He finished the game with 9 tackles and 3 tackles for loss.  The speed at which he plays for a guy who's 6'3", 242 lbs. is pretty ridiculous.  He now has 65 tackles and 12 tackles for loss, both numbers surpassing what he did in 2011 (37 tackles, 11 tackles for loss).

The future of the defensive line is bright.  I was very concerned about Michigan's defensive line coming into 2012 after Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen graduated, and those two have certainly been missed.  The drop-off at strongside end hasn't been very noticeable with Craig Roh playing fairly well, but Martin has certainly been missed at nose tackle.  However, Michigan has several guys starting or in the rotation who should return next season, so they should be able to maintain this level of play.  Weakside ends Brennen Beyer and Frank Clark, defensive tackles Quinton Washington and Ondre Pipkins, and strongside end Keith Heitzman all look solid, and that's not to mention the incoming freshmen or the redshirting freshmen (Chris Wormley, Tom Strobel, Matt Godin, Willie Henry).

Working on Saturdays is lame.  There's just not the same level of excitement when you know you could just fast forward the DVR and see the final score.  On the plus side, I could fast forward during timeouts and between plays so I didn't have to listen to the Big Ten Network's terrible announcers.  Sometimes Chris Martin talks just to hear himself, and he says very little of substance.  He does a good job of discussing defensive back play, but anytime the discussion wanders into the other 18 positions on the field, he's mute-worthy.

Nebraska 23, Michigan 9

She's better than any pictures from the game, I think.

The QB situation.  I don't even know where to start.  Denard Robinson was playing okay before he got hurt (6/11 for 55 yards; 10 carries for 46 yards).  After that all hell broke loose.  Redshirt freshman backup quarterback Russell Bellomy entered the game and threw eleven or twelve straight incomplete passes.  He finished the game 3/16 for 38 yards and 3 interceptions, along with taking 2 sacks.  His receivers dropped some passes, but mostly the throws were inaccurate and uncatchable.  At some point Devin Gardner should have been inserted as the quarterback.  Brady Hoke and Al Borges have insisted that Gardner is their #2 quarterback, and while that obviously hasn't been true, even the #3 guy should be given a shot when #2 can't get the job done.  The Wolverines were down by a touchdown or less for most of the game, and Gardner might  have been able to provide a spark.  He's obviously not the best quarterback in the land, but he does have some athleticism to improvise if the play breaks down.  Bellomy looked absolutely lost.

Al Borges anger?  Am I mad at Al Borges?  A little.  The throwback screen to Jeremy Gallon has become way too predictable, for one.  But I'm certainly not mad at him for calling the plays he did after Bellomy entered.  Borges gave Bellomy some easy throws early, and Bellomy threw them into the ground or sailed them over the receivers' heads.  What plays should an offensive coordinator call for a guy who's bad at running every play?  Aside from running the ball, which wasn't working (Fitzgerald Toussaint had 15 carries for 38 yards), there's not much an OC can do.  Nebraska blitzed Bellomy on passing downs, and they sucked up on the short routes because Bellomy doesn't like to throw downfield.  If I remember correctly, he threw exactly two passes beyond 15 yards; the first was an incompletion to Roy Roundtree in the endzone that was incorrectly called pass interference against the defense; the second was to a double-covered Devin Gardner that turned into an interception.  Bellomy is terrible at this stage in his career.

Quarterback recruiting and development.  I have been beating this drum now for a couple years, but Brady Hoke should have taken a quarterback in the class of 2012.  Michigan is apparently down to two quarterbacks on the roster: Robinson and Bellomy.  Gardner has been limited to wide receiver exclusively.  Even if the freshman isn't good, he would at least give the Wolverines another option if Bellomy stinks it up as the backup.  Hoke offered just eight quarterbacks in the 2012 class, and none really seemed to be heavily pursued.  Additionally, I'm still annoyed that Rich Rodriguez burned Devin Gardner's redshirt back in 2010.  From what I understand, the belief is that he will not be granted a fifth year of eligibility, and now he's a true junior instead of a redshirt sophomore.  Even if Hoke wanted to develop Gardner as the heir apparent to Robinson, he would only have a year to play the position.  Both of Michigan's most recent coaches have failed to handle the quarterback position appropriately over the last few years.

Michigan's run defense was excellent.  By the end of the game, Nebraska was wearing down the Wolverines a little bit.  But even with some big runs by running back Ameer Abdullah and quarterback Taylor Martinez late in the game, they combined for 159 yards on 38 carries, which is just barely over 4 yards/carry.  If Michigan's offense could have stayed on the field longer and kept them in the game, I doubt the Wolverines would have had the same kinds of breakdowns.

Michigan's secondary was burned several times.  Raymon Taylor was torched.  J.T. Floyd was beaten a couple times and picked up two pass interference calls.  Jordan Kovacs was beaten.  Thomas Gordon was beaten for a touchdown, albeit by an illegal pick.

The referees were terrible.  It went both ways, but the refs were bad.  The early 55-yard catch by Roy Roundtree was ruled as a reception on the field, and there wasn't enough evidence to overturn it; yet overturn it they did.  Vincent Smith's diving attempt that launched the ball up into the arms of P.J. Smith could have been overturned just as easily as the Roundtree play, but the interception was upheld.  Bellomy's deep ball to Roundtree shouldn't have been called pass interference against Nebraska.  There were numerous holding calls that they missed, including against Taylor Lewan, who has been committing way too many infractions.  Nebraska also took a penalty for targeting Jeremy Jackson, but the defender led with his shoulder and hit Jackson in the chest, not the head.

Much of this could be fixed if Michigan could run the ball.  Outside of Denard Robinson, nobody on Michigan's team can run the ball effectively this year.  Michigan's interior offensive line is weak, and honestly, it's the two most experienced guys who are playing the worst, in my opinion.  Ricky Barnum and Patrick Omameh, both of whom are fifth year seniors, have often failed to get a push.  Center Elliott Mealer has been mediocre, but he hasn't played much in his career.  Offensively, Michigan doesn't have an identity.  The offensive line has been pretty healthy, but they can't run the ball; both quarterbacks have been subpar in the passing game; the receivers are average.  Unless Denard Robinson is running the ball, Michigan is ineffective.  Now Michigan has gone two consecutive games without a touchdown, and you can't put your defense in that type of situation consistently and expect to win.

Michigan 12, Michigan State 10

Drew Dileo (image via AnnArbor.com)

Well, that was terrifying.  That was way too much of a heart attack game for my liking.  I mean, I still liked the end result and everything, but that game was frustrating.  Neither team could do anything consistently on offense, and I'm not convinced that it's because both defenses are great.  Both defenses are very good, but the offenses are just so-so.

That being said, yay!  Good golly, I hate Mark Dantonio.  I hate William Gholston, too, but Dantonio is the biggest tool of a coach in the Big Ten, even more so than Bret Bielema.  It would have felt great to see Dantonio lose, even if Michigan wasn't the opponent.  It just makes the win that much sweeter that seniors Denard Robinson, Elliott Mealer, Patrick Omameh, Jordan Kovacs, Craig Roh, etc. succeed in their last chance to beat the Spartans.  Congratulations to those guys.

Thank you, Drew Dileo.  Wide receiver Drew Dileo played a great game.  He's never going to be the fastest player in the field, and he certainly isn't the biggest.  But he's the type of do-it-all player and possession receiver that finds all kinds of ways to win a football game.  He came up huge in the Sugar Bowl against Virginia Tech, and he had another standout performance on Saturday with 4 catches for 92 yards . . . and as the holder on all four of Michigan's scoring plays.

Brendan Gibbons and Matt Wile were great.  I was extremely impressed with the solid kicking from these two guys.  Gibbons was 3/3 kicking, including the 38-yard game-winner.  Wile was 1/1 in his first career chance to kick a field goal, and that one was a long attempt from 48 yards.  Obviously, each of the four kicks was huge.

Jeremy Jackson is slow.  At a couple points in the game, I couldn't help harking back to the days when wide receiver Jeremy Jackson was recruited.  I said then that he didn't have the athleticism to be an impact player at Michigan, and I still question why he's on the field so much.  Denard Robinson targeted him a couple times deep, and while the throws could have been more accurate, Jackson looked like he was running in quicksand.  If the play call is for someone to go deep, then Jackson should be replaced by someone with a little giddyup.

The defense was pretty darn good.  There wasn't much of a pass rush, and the coverage on the outside was mediocre.  But the Wolverines only allowed 68 yards to Le'Veon Bell (on 26 carries) and 86 total rushing yards to the offense (punter Mike Sadler ran 26 yards on a fake punt, which I won't pin on the defense).  Desmond Morgan (11 tackles) is playing very well, and Jake Ryan (10 tackles, 1 sack) was all over the place once again, and Bell's longest run was 8 yards.

Cornerbacks are a concern.  J.T. Floyd made a couple nice plays on short passes and supporting the run, which is an improvement for him; however, he was beaten deep a couple times by receivers who were unable to hook up with MSU quarterback Andrew Maxwell.  Meanwhile, Raymon Taylor left with an elbow injury, leaving the opposite side to slot corner Courtney Avery.  I'm hoping that Taylor can return soon, because the Wolverines are running out of healthy corners.  The only other guys left on the roster are backup slot corner Delonte Hollowell and tiny freshman Terry Richardson.

Michigan has 900 wins.  That's more wins than any other football program in the history of the whole wide universe.  By comparison, Michigan State has 643 all-time victories.  The Wolverines are now 68-32-5 against the Spartans.

Notre Dame 13, Michigan 6

This will not end well. (image via USA Today)

I wish I were wrong.  I pretty much had the lowest score prediction in the Michigan blogosphere, and even I didn't expect the sloppy snoozefest that occurred on Saturday night.  I was criticized on my game preview for picking a 24-20 score because the offenses were powerful and the defenses weren't.  Well . . . we saw what happened.  The defenses were okay, but the offenses aren't where they should be for either school.  Notre Dame should be more explosive for offensive genius Brian Kelly, and Michigan should be better with a senior quarterback.  Brian at MGoBlog sort of criticized my understatement that this would be Denard's worst game against Notre Dame, but I guess I wasn't clear enough; the pressure up front was bound to make Denard jumpy.  I just expected more breakdowns in the defensive backfield.

Denard Robinson is a terrible (passing) quarterback.  He was, is, and probably always will be.  I have been saying this for years.  He's capable of good games (Ohio State in 2011, for example), but that's not the norm when he faces decent teams.  Over the past two seasons, he has 26 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. Last night he was 13/24 for 138 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions; he also fumbled twice and got sacked 3 times.  There's no excuse for the poor decisions he makes, the poor footwork, the turnovers, and the inaccuracy.  Even his Hail Mary interception at the end of the first half was terrible because he overthrew every single dude on the team; you're not trying to beat the opponent deep in that situation - you're trying to complete the pass and get yards after the catch.  And all that stuff happened with Notre Dame missing starting safety Jamoris Slaughter and starting corner Lo Wood.

Vincent Smith and Al Borges d'oh.  Michigan was moving the ball really well at one point in the first quarter, and then Al Borges had to go ahead and call that play where Vincent Smith throws the ball to the other team.  That was a huge turning point in the game, because it seemed Michigan was on its way to scoring before that play.  Of course, Smith should know better than to throw it, but he's a running back.  Hell, Michigan's actual quarterback threw four picks of his own, so who's to say that Denard wouldn't have made the same poor decision?  I thought Borges called an okay game, but that was a huge, huge mistake.

Hooray for Jeremy Gallon.  I thought Gallon was pretty consistent throughout the night in all phases of the game.  He made good decisions on punt returns, ran well after the catch, and had a couple nice designed runs.

J.T. Floyd rabble rabble rabble.  He did not have a good game.  He is not good.  I take that back.  He isn't good at covering, he isn't good at supporting the run, and he isn't good at taking on blocks.  However, he does have a knack for tackling wide receivers when they catch the ball in front of him.  So there's that.

Freshman safety anger.  I hate hate hate playing freshman safeties.  I've mentioned this before.  All safeties should redshirt or be limited to special teams.  Jarrod Wilson got caught flat-footed in the second quarter and then had to grab onto Tyler Eifert to prevent a touchdown pass.  Pass interference, first down, then touchdown.  Wilson also picked up a holding penalty on the ensuing kickoff.  All that attrition in the defensive backfield over the past few years has really hurt the team.

WTF on Notre Dame's touchdown?  Notre Dame lined up in pro left with trips to the right on the 2-yard line..  Michigan put four guys down with Jake Ryan as the middle linebacker and safety Jordan Kovacs about 7 or 8 yards off the ball.  This is problematic because a) Notre Dame has six blockers to block five guys and b) Jake Ryan isn't a middle linebacker.  Ryan's read step took him to Notre Dame's left (presumably because that's where the uncovered gaps were), but he was also moving backward on the snap.  Quarterback Tommy Rees simply took the shotgun snap and ran right behind his center and right guard, who were double-teaming Quinton Washington.  Washington didn't do a bad job of holding up, but that's just setting up your defense to fail.  Put Desmond Morgan or James Ross in there, and maybe your MIKE has a chance of making the right read.

Jake Ryan's role needs to be re-evaluated.  I think the coaching staff is asking too much of him.  Sometimes he's a SAM linebacker, sometimes he's an inside linebacker, and sometimes they put him at defensive end, even in running situations.  He can't hold up at defensive end against the run.  Leave him on the edge and then move him around in obvious passing situations to get after the quarterback.  He's a quality player in some aspects, but he's not a freak athlete that can be moved around at will.

Where is Michigan now? Out of the top 25.  And that's probably where they deserve to be.  They were overrated to begin the year, and now they're probably in the range where they deserve to be.  The loss of Junior Hemingway has hurt because Denard doesn't have a go-to guy, and the lack of playmakers on the defensive line has turned this into a mediocre defense.  The linebackers and safeties are fine, but the defensive line and cornerbacks are weaknesses right now.

Video: Hoke, Roundtree, Floyd interviews

2012 Season Predictions

This is always fun.  Take a look at my 2011 predictions.

Now for the things that will absolutely, 100% become true in the coming months:

Leading Rusher
Last year I picked the right guy (Denard Robinson) but fell short on the yardage.  Now that it looks like Fitzgerald Toussaint will miss some time due to legal issues, it's even more likely that Robinson leads the team in rushing for the third straight season.  Hopefully he can stay healthy and make this come true.
Prediction: Denard Robinson, 1200 yards

Leading Receiver
Starting flanker Roy Roundtree looks like he's being groomed to be this year's #1 target, now that he's been moved to the multiple receiver side and wearing the #21 jersey.  The coaches want him to be The Guy, and he's been successful before.  He doesn't have the same ability to catch balls in traffic as last year's leading receiver Junior Hemingway, but he does have some smoothness and shiftiness to him.
Prediction: Roy Roundtree, 750 yards

Leading Tackler
Starting middle linebacker Kenny Demens returns to the same role this season.  He doesn't have the same talent in front of him to keep him clean, but the mass of Quinton Washington and William Campbell, along with the steady play of Craig Roh, should help Demens maintain some level of consistency.
Prediction: Kenny Demens, 90 tackles

Leading Sacker
The pass rush is not this team's specialty.  Especially if weakside end Frank Clark can't play much because of legal issues, the athleticism just isn't there for the full-time players.  The best pass rusher on the unit is SAM linebacker Jake Ryan, but he might be overmatched if he has to play too much weakside end.  Ryan is better as a guy who moves around from the edge to an inside blitz, back to the edge, etc.
Prediction: Jake Ryan, 5.5 sacks

Leading Interceptor
I picked J.T. Floyd for this spot in 2010, but he got hurt halfway through the year.  Then I picked Jordan Kovacs last season, and he ended up with just 1 pick.  The best cover guy on the squad is Blake Countess, in my opinion, but Countess had 0 picks last year, though he had 1 in the spring game.  So I'm going to combine my last two choices.
Prediction: J.T. Floyd and Jordan Kovacs, 2 interceptions each

All-Big Ten First Team
Prediction: Taylor Lewan, Denard Robinson

Leading Scorer (non-QB, non-kicker)
Prediction: Fitzgerald Toussaint

Breakout Offensive Player
A lot of starters return again in 2012, and last year's choice (Jeremy Gallon) already kind of broke out.  Lots of exiting Michigan players have mentioned Jerald Robinson as a guy to watch, but I have yet to see it.  I'll go with Thomas Rawls, who at the very least should be able to run over some mediocre competition through the first half of the year (except Alabama) and pile up some decent numbers.
Prediction: Thomas Rawls

Breakout Defensive Player
This is a tough choice, because the back seven guys all return, the defensive line is expected to be mediocre, and perhaps my #1 choice during the offseason (Frank Clark) is in legal trouble and might miss too much time to be a smart choice here.  I guess I'll go with Thomas Gordon, who showed flashes of playmaking ability last year.  I expect him to be even better in pass coverage this year and help support the run quite a bit, so this should be a big year for him.
Prediction: Thomas Gordon

Most Disappointing Offensive Player
Lots of outgoing players have chosen Jerald Robinson as a breakout player, and we haven't even seen a glimpse of it in a spring game.  Before Roy Roundtree's 2010 breakout season, he had a good end to the 2009 campaign and an awesome spring game.  Before Jeremy Gallon's 2011 breakout season, he had some nice plays during his 2010 redshirt freshman season.  Robinson must do a lot in practice, but it never translates to anything more than that.  He won't disappoint me because I'm not expecting a ton, but I do think he'll disappoint some of those guys who think he'll be a stud.
Prediction: Jerald Robinson

Most Disappointing Defensive Player
The only way anyone in the back seven disappoints is if they regress.  It's already a rather solid group, perhaps without a superstar but pretty good nonetheless.  I think defensive tackle/end Jibreel Black is going to struggle.  He's too small to play 3-tech and too big/stiff to be a quality weakside end.  He might be okay against the run as a weakside end, but Michigan probably won't get much of a pass rush out of him.
Prediction: Jibreel Black

The Big Finish
Sept. 1 vs. Alabama: LOSS.  Michigan is probably going to struggle, especially running the ball.  Alabama has a very good offensive line and stops the run well.  That leaves the game in Denard Robinson's hands, and he can't pass Michigan to a win.

Sept. 8 vs. Air Force: WIN.  Air Force is going to struggle this season, and Michigan will be angry coming off the loss to Alabama.

Sept. 15 vs. Massachusetts: WIN.  UMass is in its first season in the FBS, and Michigan should handle them pretty well.  And it won't be a close final score like it was a couple years ago.

Sept. 22 at Notre Dame: WIN.  This is basically a toss-up because Notre Dame is going to be on the upswing this year, I think.  The Fighting Irish will be better, but Denard Robinson shouldn't be making the same mistakes he did in last year's game.

Oct. 6 at Purdue: WIN.  Purdue probably won't be very good this year.

Oct. 13 vs. Illinois: WIN.  Illinois doesn't have the offensive firepower to beat Michigan.  They always seem to have a couple good defensive players, but they're probably going to get overpowered on offense.

Oct. 20 vs. Michigan State: LOSS. Michigan State's defense scares me a little bit, and Michigan hasn't shown over the past few years that they can handle the pressure up the middle.

Oct. 27 at Nebraska: WIN.  This was a blowout in Ann Arbor last season, and Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead had a bit of a rough day.  Michigan's defensive line manhandled Nebraska's offensive line, so it won't be a blowout, just a fairly close victory.

Nov. 3 at Minnesota: WIN. Minnesota is bad.

Nov. 10 vs. Northwestern: WIN.  Offensively, Northwestern will give Michigan some trouble like they always do.  But eventually Michigan will figure it out, and the Wildcats won't be able to hold up on defense.

Nov. 17 vs. Iowa: WIN. Iowa lost quite a bit last year, and I think this might be a year when Kirk Ferentz and his revamped coaching staff can't hold it all together.

Nov. 24 at Ohio State: LOSS.  The Buckeyes are going to be good at the whole defense thing, but I expect them to take a year before Urban Meyer's offense really takes shape.  However, the game is at the Horseshoe, so Michigan will be a little off their game.

Final record: 9-3

Video: Countdown to Kickoff 2012 - Day 15: JT Floyd

2012 Season Countdown: #16 J.T. Floyd

J.T. Floyd

Name: J.T. Floyd
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 183 lbs.
High school: Greenville (SC) J.L. Mann
Position: Cornerback
Class: Redshirt senior
Jersey number: #8
Last year: I ranked Floyd #37 and said he would be a backup cornerback.  He started all 13 games and had 48 tackles, 8 pass breakups, 2 interceptions, and 1 forced fumble.

Last year I assumed Floyd would be the backup to Troy Woolfolk while Courtney Avery won the field corner job.  Instead, Avery played in the slot while Floyd and Woolfolk manned the outside spots.  Floyd played well enough to be named Honorable Mention All-Big Ten.  Some people saw marked improvement from his 2010 season; I saw slight improvement.  Some people overrated his performance based on a nice interception against Illinois; some people say I underrated his performance based on him getting burnt deep against Nebraska and Ohio State.

With Avery entrenched at the slot corner position and Blake Countess having established himself at field corner, the defensive backfield returns all four (or five, if you count Avery) starters.  Floyd should be expected to carry on with his solid but unspectacular performance.  His athleticism would seem to hold him back from making a huge leap, but hopefully he will continue to improve under the tutelage of Curt Mallory, who is a significantly better coach than former cornerbacks coach Tony Gibson.  I think the loss of three starters on the defensive line will give quarterbacks an extra split second to throw, which may hurt Michigan's overall pass defense.  The disappearance of Terrence Talbott leaves a small void behind Floyd, but Raymon Taylor got some experience last season and bulked up in the offseason to 182 lbs.; he should be Floyd's primary backup at boundary corner, with Blake Countess also a possibility to slide over in case of a long-term injury.  Floyd should repeat his Honorable Mention performance.  Anything more or less would be slightly surprising.

Prediction: Starting cornerback; 55 tackles, 2 interceptions

Spring Practice Thoughts and Rumors - Defense

Cameron Gordon has impressed the coaches again this spring

If you missed yesterday's discussion of the offense, here it is.  And now for the defense:

Defensive end: As we know by now, Craig Roh has switched to strongside end.  He has done fairly well at the position, but he'll need to spend the next several months eating a ton and bulking up.  The coaches want him in the low 280s and right now he's about 270.  Insiders say Frank Clark looks like the starter at weakside end for the upcoming season.  Brennen Beyer, who switched from SAM linebacker this offseason, also has reportedly fared well but looks to be a step behind Clark at the position.  Beyer's a thicker, run-stopping sort and Clark will have to work on that aspect of his game.  Nathan Brink is the presumed backup at the 5-tech position but has been limited due to his late-season broken leg.  Keith Heitzman is also in the mix, which would be great for depth at the position.  I would not be surprised to see one or two of the freshman defensive ends get some action, such as Matt Godin at 5-tech and Mario Ojemudia on the weakside, although Heitzman's emergence might preclude Godin from having to burn a redshirt.

Defensive tackle: The first team defensive tackles appear to be Will Campbell at nose tackle and Jibreel Black at the 3-tech.  Campbell looks fit and is being more consistent with his technique, but the coaches continue to work on that aspect.  Black needs to add weight, but he's more athletic than most 3-techs (especially compared to Will Heininger), so he adds a different dimension.  Richard Ash appears to be the backup nose tackle.  Meanwhile, Ken Wilkins has supposedly taken a leap forward this spring.  He was mired on the bench last season and there were a lot of questions swirling about him, but it seems the light has gone on.  He could be the #2 defensive tackle going into the season.  Chris Rock has also earned a tiny bit of buzz and has put on a significant amount of weight to play the 3-tech.

Linebacker: I don't mean to overstate things, but the competition between Jake Ryan and Cam Gordon appears to be neck-and-neck for the SAM position.  The coaches really like Gordon's athleticism, and he's done a good job in pass coverage, which makes sense because he's a converted safety.  Ryan has continued to progress after having a solid redshirt freshman season.  There was a huge dropoff last season between Ryan and Beyer, but that won't be the case this year (if Cam Gordon can stay healthy).  At the MIKE spot, Kenny Demens hasn't necessarily taken the forward steps that the coaches want.  He has been hampered by a thumb injury, and the #1 middle linebacker in his absence has been freshman Joe Bolden.  Mike Jones is buried at the #3 spot.  The best linebacker this spring has been Desmond Morgan, according to several accounts.  He's put on a decent amount of weight after playing at 225 last season, and insiders suggest he's probably close to 240 now.  The backup to Morgan at WILL has been Antonio Poole, who redshirted last season.

Cornerback: Blake Countess has one cornerback position locked down.  At the boundary corner position, Terrence Talbott has stepped up to challenge J.T. Floyd.  Insiders say that Floyd's "benching" is partly due to him underperforming and partly due to rewarding Talbott for hard work in the offseason.  It might be unlikely that Talbott takes a job from a fifth year senior, but the possibility exists.  He's made his move not by being a great coverage guy but by supporting the run and turning into a very good tackler.  Those are the top three corners right there.  Raymon Taylor continues to earn buzz as perhaps the secondary's best athlete, but he's still not ready mentally and physically.  Courtney Avery is the nickel corner, where he did a great job last season and doesn't seem to getting challenged this spring.

Safety: The starters here are pretty clear with Thomas Gordon at free safety and Jordan Kovacs at strong.  Freshman Jarrod Wilson has picked things up quickly, and he might be the #2 free safety.  Marvin Robinson has returned to the practice field this spring after disappearing last year with some legal issues.  Despite his absence, Robinson appears to have taken another step forward and should be the heir apparent to Kovacs. A couple backup safeties have been absent from practices so far this spring: Tamani Carter and Josh Furman.  I would have to assume that they will be buried a little bit if/when they return.  These coaches do not like guys who miss practice.

Braylon Edwards is a waffler

If this guy doesn't look like a wide receiver, it's because
he wasn't.  It's kicker Gregg Wilner.

I hate the Detroit Free Press, which is why I'm going to give you all the info you need here and you don't have to click on the link, which can be found here if you like supporting terrorists: l.

I don't think there's a receiver that has emerged as a guy that can take over a game or a guy they can trust.  However, on the flip side, I wouldn't mind Denard Robinson wearing it, the No. 1 this year. If it went in that direction, I would be honored that he continued the lineage of the 'one.' I would be happy with that all the way.

Those are the words of one Braylon Edwards.  Of course, this comment comes a few years after saying the following:

I’m glad you gave me a Go Blue question because Rich Rod gave the No. 1 jersey to an incoming freshman DB [J.T. Floyd], and the No. 1 jersey has never been worn by anybody outside of a wide receiver.  It dates back to Anthony Carter, (Greg) McMurtry, Tyrone Butterfield, Derrick Alexander, David Terrell, and yours truly. So I’m going to have a talk with him about that the next time I see him.  He’s getting that call soon - very soon. Exactly, we have a jersey scholarship fund for this whole deal. What is he thinking?  

There are good things that can be said about Braylon Edwards.  He paid out a bunch of money to some inner city Cleveland kids to whom he had promised some college tuition.  He also started an endowment for a scholarship at the University of Michigan.  And, of course, he's one of the best football players in Michigan history.

But he's kind of a moron.  Aside from his legal troubles, this whole #1 jersey kerfuffle is absolutely ridiculous.  He specifically states that the #1 jersey has never been worn by anyone other than a kicker, even though it has been worn by LT Angus Goetz, G Robert Jerome Dunne, HB Harry Kipke, S Dave Whiteford, and K Gregg Willner throughout history.  Way to know the history of your own endowed scholarship, Braylon.

Now he's publicly lobbying for Denard Robinson to wear the #1 jersey.  Denard Robinson does not play wide receiver.

For the record, I think the #1 jersey "tradition" is complete and utter nonsense.  It was never meant to be a tradition.  It was the result of a single coach challenging a single player.  Edwards asked to switch from #80 to #1 because his idol Anthony Carter wore it, and then head coach Lloyd Carr said, "If you want to honor Anthony Carter, then you should work for it and earn it."  Edwards worked for it and had a great last couple years at Michigan.  There.  That's it.  If anybody should have notoriety for creating the #1 jersey tradition, it ought to be Lloyd Carr, who devised the plan and realized that Edwards needed a challenge to get over his immaturity and trouble catching the ball.

I have no problem with Denard Robinson wearing the #1 jersey.  He's a superstar college player, and by all accounts, he's a leader of the team.  However, if Edwards just wants to hand out the #1 jersey to a superstar or the team's best player or the team's best offensive player or whomever, he shouldn't make a big deal out of it going to a wide receiver.  When Rodriguez tried to give cornerback J.T. Floyd the #1 back in 2008, Edwards made a big deal out of it and got Rodriguez off to a horrible start with the media, fans, and former players.  He submarined the Rodriguez regime almost immediately.  And for what?  For a "tradition" that Edwards himself can't properly explain.

So let's give the #1 jersey to Denard for 2012.  Maybe next year Edwards can award it to running back Fitzgerald Toussaint.  Or left tackle Taylor Lewan.  Either way, Edwards has undermined his own previous statements.  I never want to hear about him wanting only to give the #1 jersey to a wide receiver again.

MGoBlog: Clinic Items - Greg Mattison

Greg Mattison is awesome.

Brian at MGoBlog attended a clinic at which Greg Mattison spoke.  First of all, I'm jealous.  Secondly, though, I loved every bit of Brian's post.  You should go there (if you haven't already) and read it in its entirety, but here I just want to a bit of a point-by-point analysis of what Brian shared.

"Occasionally it felt like it was a college class as Mattison asked the room what player X would be doing in a particular situation."  In my experience, the best speakers are the ones who keep the audience involved.  This isn't news to anyone who does frequent public speaking or is involved in education.  If you're just speaking at people, they often lose interest fairly quickly.

"As I wrestled with how to handle this various coaches in the room told every-damn-body that Mattison said Brennen Beyer was moving to WDE and Craig Roh to SDE. This was explicitly stated."  This is confirmation of my post from the other day.  Not that I'm a genius - the info was e-mailed to me - but there were some questions about the validity of my info.  I try not to post information I'm not confident in, so I like when my info is confirmed by multiple sources.

"Mattison took the opportunity to point out that this was an example of the corners not coming hard enough and gush over Floyd ("I love this kid") in general and specifically as an exemplar of the Michigan philosophy."  I think my criticisms of J.T. Floyd often get misconstrued as hating on a kid or holding a grudge.  I've never questioned Floyd's hustle or attitude.  What I've questioned is his overall athletic ability, and I think Brian's comment here somewhat confirms my criticisms.  Floyd hustles and indeed makes a nice play by chasing down Braxton Miller, but one of the issues here is that Floyd helped allow a giant run in the first place, which is acknowledged by Mattison.

"Here he also noted that everyone hits the sled every day and that this was not something the previous coaching staff did frequently, if ever. This is where the bit about "I've never seen such awful technique" came in. Pretty much the only thing negative Mattison said was about the state of the team he was handed."  The sled is such a useful tool in coaching football.  I know we saw clips of Rodriguez's teams hitting the sled, and I doubt they just did that for the camera.  I think Mattison might be underestimating how often Michigan hit the sled, but still it might be a significant improvement.  Whether it's a blocking sled, a tackling sled, a five-man sled, a two-man sled, whatever, they're the best simulation for live play.  And there's only so much man-on-man hitting you can do before people start getting injured.

"Inside linebackers. The usual: the mike has to be a little bigger, a little stronger, and the will has to be able to adjust to coverage outside of the box. An important difference between the two is the WLB has to be able to run vertically down the seam whereas the MLB can pass his guy off; IIRC this year the guy running down the seam was Demens, not Morgan. Adjustment based on Demens's surprising ability to stick with guys downfield?"  The MIKE and the WILL are interchangeable, especially with a guy like Desmond Morgan, who is essentially a MIKE (albeit young and small-ish) playing because of a void at the position.  I think Demens was often dropping into coverage because offenses flipped the formation's strength.  The inside linebackers don't flip with a change of strength, so then the MIKE becomes the WILL and vice versa.

"Corners. "Corners are corners" but the field corner (Countess) is not involved with "heavy work" and usually just has to clean up plays that have been strung out. The boundary corner (Floyd) has to be a bigger guy better in run support. It's a seven man front; if you go eight you'd "better have a war daddy" at field corner because he's got to cover an outside receiver with little additional help."  This is where the loss of Anthony Standifer hurts.  I really think Standifer, who was committed to Michigan for several months, could have developed into a good run supporter and boundary corner.  Richardson is a lot like Blake Countess, so now Michigan has two young field corners (three if you include Courtney Avery) and one senior boundary corner (Floyd).  I think that's why you're seeing so many big corners getting offered in the class of 2013.  Michigan needs run supporting corners right NOW.  It might also be why incoming free safety Jarrod Wilson might get a shot to play cornerback.

"Brennen Beyer. Beyer was talked up like a future star. Reportedly up to 250 pounds and will be given an opportunity to win the WDE job in the spring."  This sounds like a good plan to me, because Beyer seemed a little out of place at SAM.

"Departing DL. Heininger "really became a football player." Seems like they think they'll miss him. Van Bergen "really, really played" for M and Martin was of course the best player on the team."  I agree that Martin was the best player on the team.  Yes, better than Denard Robinson.  Heininger is replaceable, and Van Bergen's loss will be mitigated somewhat by the move of Craig Roh to strongside end.  This isn't news, but the biggest loss here is Mike Martin.  As much as I like most of the defense, the loss of such a big-time nose tackle is going to hurt.  Even when Martin wasn't making plays, he was causing the offense to scheme around him or he was making running backs redirect in the backfield.  Teams often improve in the second year of a system, but that might be difficult unless William Campbell and/or Ondre Pipkins has a breakout season.      

2011 Season Grades: Defense

I'm sure this comes as no surprise, but Jordan Kovacs will be Michigan's top returning defender, according to my grades
(image via Maize and Blue Nation)

Over the last three games of Michigan's season, I took the time to grade the defense.  For individual games, you can look at the grades for Nebraska, Ohio State, and Virginia Tech.  The following shows each player's cumulative grade:

GRADES
MMartin: +36
RVanBergen: +24
JKovacs: +21
JRyan: +16
KDemens: +12
FClark: +11
WHeininger: +5
CAvery: +4
CRoh: +3
BBeyer: +1
JBlack: +1
WCampbell: +1
DMorgan: +1
JFurman: 0
DHollowell: 0
JVanSlyke: 0
QWashington: 0
MJones: -1
RTaylor: -1
NBrink: -2
BHawthorne: -2
TGordon: -2
BCountess: -3
TWoolfolk: -3
JFloyd: -16

I don't think it's any coincidence that defensive linemen seem to rocket to the top of the grading scale, while defensive backs linger toward the bottom.  By the nature of the sport of football (and the angles that television uses), defensive linemen and linebackers are more involved in the game.  And when the ball is in the air, roughly 60% of the time it's going to result in a completion and an angry defensive back.

Obviously, this three-game sample is not indicative of the entire season.  For example, J.T. Floyd's best game was probably against Illinois, which isn't a game I graded.  On the flip side, Frank Clark ended up with a +11 largely because he was outstanding in the Virginia Tech game.

Sugar Bowl: Michigan vs. Virginia Tech Grades - Defense

This interception was Frank Clark's best play of the day, but not his only good one.

Just like post-Nebraska and post-Ohio State, I reviewed the film of the Sugar Bowl and graded out the defense for good/bad reads, filling/missing assignments, and physical superiority/inferiority.  Each time a player had a significant impact on a play, he was given a grade ranging from +3 to -3.

GRADES
FClark: +10 . . . Too quick for offensive line to handle; made a great interception
JRyan: +10 . . . Pursuit and hustle were stellar; took great angles
MMartin: +9 . . . Seemed to get tired in second half, but too fast off the snap most of the time
RVanBergen: +9 . . . No spectacular plays but just disruptive enough to force Wilson to hesitate
JKovacs: +7 . . . Good tackler but also wades through trash well
CRoh: +3 . . . Got reach blocked a couple times, but mostly filled his assignments
BBeyer: +1 . . . Limited playing time
KDemens: +1 . . . Missed several tackles, but made a nice PBU and filled his gap
QWashington: +1 . . . Limited playing time
JBlack: 0 . . . Looks too slow for weakside end
CAvery: -1 . . . Had trouble fighting off blocks early, but supported run well after first quarter
WCampbell: -2 . . . Got reach blocked too easily; too passive mostly, but had a couple "wow" moments
TGordon: -2 . . . Had a rough first half but got better as the game went along
BCountess: -3 . . . Picked on especially in zone coverage, but fared better in man
DMorgan: -4 . . . Not bad for a freshman linebacker but looked like a freshman linebacker
JFloyd: -5 . . . Okay in pass coverage, poor against the run

CONCLUSIONS
The usual suspects were stellar for the most part, but sitting atop the list is a bit of a surprise: freshman defensive end Frank Clark.  Aside from the highlight-reel interception, Clark consistently beat Virginia Tech's left tackle with slants and speed rushes.  Of course, part of the credit for Clark's +10 goes to Greg Mattison, who used Clark to stunt more often than he did with Roh.  Hooray for using players' strengths!

Redshirt freshman SAM linebacker Jake Ryan was also outstanding, receiving only one negative mark (for being a little slow in getting to the flat in pass coverage).  Mike Martin was great in the first half, mediocre in the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth, and outstanding in the last few minutes of the game.  Ryan Van Bergen was solid throughout, but you could tell by the fourth quarter that his foot was bothering him.  Jordan Kovacs also made some nice plays throughout the game, although he did make some uncharacteristic misses in run support.

Going to the bottom of the list, redshirt junior J.T. Floyd wasn't picked on much in coverage, but he received most of his negatives in run support.  He just wasn't physical at all when coming up to support the run and at times he looked to be running away from contact.  On the opposite side of the field, freshman cornerback Blake Countess was targeted throughout the game.  And while he was more effective than Floyd in supporting the run, the more experienced and bigger Hokie receivers took advantage of him a little bit.

Freshman linebacker Desmond Morgan alternated a couple bad plays with one very good play.  Virginia Tech frequently motioned tight ends across the formation to change the strength, putting Morgan on the strong side and running at him.  He reads the backfield pretty quickly, but when a tight end or slot receiver would come crashing down on him, he would be a split second late in reacting to the block; at least one time, his slowness caused middle linebacker Kenny Demens to get caught up in the trash.

Meanwhile, defensive tackle William Campbell continued his inconsistency by literally knocking an offensive guard on his ass . . . and then playing pattycake on other plays (not so literally).  He is virtually unblockable when he fires off the ball, but if he stands straight up, he's very easy to block.  The problem with playing Campbell is that he oscillates between performing like Mike Martin and performing like Adam Patterson.  His ceiling is great, but his floor is terrible.