2012 Season Countdown List

Here's the final list of the 2012 Season Countdown.  I hope you've enjoyed reading all 89(!) entries.  I succeeded in posting one each day for about the last three months, and now I'm going to have surgery for carpal tunnel.

1. Denard Robinson
2. Ricky Barnum
3. Taylor Lewan
4. Fitzgerald Toussaint
5. Jordan Kovacs
6. Craig Roh
7. William Campbell
8. Patrick Omameh
9. Blake Countess
10. Thomas Gordon
11. Michael Schofield
12. Jake Ryan
13. Roy Roundtree
14. Kenny Demens
15. Devin Gardner
16. J.T. Floyd
17. Jibreel Black
18. Thomas Rawls
19. Jeremy Gallon
20. Desmond Morgan
21. Stephen Hopkins
22. Brendan Gibbons
23. Vincent Smith
24. Brennen Beyer
25. Courtney Avery
26. Elliott Mealer
27. Brandon Moore
28. Cameron Gordon
29. Ondre Pipkins
30. Jerald Robinson
31. Joey Burzynski
32. Frank Clark
33. Jareth Glanda
34. Marvin Robinson
35. Brandin Hawthorne
36. Drew Dileo
37. Jeremy Jackson
38. Terrence Talbott (left team)
39. Richard Ash
40. Nathan Brink
41. Quinton Washington
42. Jack Miller
43. Keith Heitzman
44. Chris Bryant (out for season, broken tibia)
45. Kyle Kalis
46. Joe Bolden
47. Jehu Chesson
48. Raymon Taylor
49. Russell Bellomy
50. Josh Furman
51. Will Hagerup
52. Matt Wile
53. Devin Funchess
54. Delonte Hollowell
55. Amara Darboh
56. Jarrod Wilson
57. Dennis Norfleet
58. A.J. Williams
59. Justice Hayes
60. Antonio Poole
61. Mario Ojemudia
62. James Ross
63. Ricardo Miller
64. Mike Kwiatkowski
65. Chris Wormley (out for season, torn ACL)
66. Royce Jenkins-Stone
67. Ben Braden
68. Mike Jones
69. Joe Kerridge
70. Erik Magnuson
71. Kenny Wilkins
72. Matt Godin
73. Terry Richardson
74. Erik Gunderson
75. Jordan Paskorz
76. Jeremy Clark
77. Kaleb Ringer (out for season, knee surgery)
78. Tamani Carter (left team)
79. Floyd Simmons
80. Graham Glasgow
81. Allen Gant
82. Tom Strobel
83. Chris Eddins
84. Drake Johnson
85. Willie Henry
86. Sione Houma
87. Blake Bars
88. Jack Kennedy
89. Steve Wilson

2012 Season Countdown: #1 Denard Robinson

Denard Robinson

 Name: Denard Robinson
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 197 lbs.
High school: Deerfield Beach (FL) Deerfield Beach
Position: Quarterback
Class: Senior
Jersey number: #16
Last year: I ranked Robinson #2 and said he would pass for 2,700 yards, rush for 900 yards, and score 28 total touchdowns; I also pegged him for All-Big Ten First Team.  He went 142/258 passing (55%) for 2,173 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions.  He also ran 221 times for 1,176 yards (5.3 yards per carry) and 16 touchdowns.

Last year I took some flak for ranking Robinson #2, placing him behind nose tackle Mike Martin.  Considering the defense's turnaround and Martin's extremely productive season (64 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks), I feel justified in having made that decision.  The offense was already good, but the defense needed to make some huge strides and Martin was a stud in the middle of that defense.

Meanwhile, it's tough to say that Robinson needed to have a good season for Michigan to be a good team, because Robinson struggled at times.  His final numbers were very good in lots of areas (passing yardage, rushing yardage, touchdowns, wins, etc.), but he struggled passing the ball early in the season.  Those final numbers included 15 interceptions and a completion percentage of 55%.  Out of the top 100 passers in the FBS last season, he tied for the sixth-most interceptions and had the eighth-worst completion percentage.  Especially early in the season, he struggled with the transition to a pro-style offense and looked very uncomfortable dropping back from under center.

In the second half of the year, however, offensive coordinator Al Borges started to get a better feel for Robinson's skills and seemed to simplify the offense for him.  Borges seemed to run more shotgun plays while still using multiple tight ends, and Robinson seemed to have a little more consistency and a higher comfort level in the pocket.  And while he wasn't quite as explosive in the running game, he still was the second-best rushing quarterback in yards per game (behind Chandler Harnish from Northern Illinois).  He had quite possibly the best performance of his career against Ohio State in November when he was 14/17 passing for 167 yards and 3 touchdowns to go along with 26 carries for 170 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground.  His raw numbers were arguably better against teams like Notre Dame and UConn in 2010, but his game management in putting up 40 points and 5 touchdowns against the Buckeyes was outstanding.

This year Robinson is clearly the most important player on the team.  The new starters along the defensive line mean that the defense as a whole might take a step back, and that means the offense needs to take a step forward for Michigan to maintain its trajectory toward an elite level.  The good thing is that Borges understands him better now and should start the season with better offensive play calls.  The bad thing is that Robinson lost his favorite target in Junior Hemingway, a solid guy in Martavious Odoms, and a pretty good tight end in Kevin Koger.  Those players are being replaced by Roy Roundtree (likely a step down from Hemingway), Drew Dileo (a step down from Odoms), and a combination of Brandon Moore/Devin Funchess (Moore is a step down, while Funchess might provide a spark in the passing game).  He does have a couple wild cards in Jeremy Jackson, who could catch some of those jump balls downfield but doesn't have much speed, and backup quarterback/part-time receiver Devin Gardner, who has oodles of talent but zero experience at wide receiver.

So.  What happens in 2012?  Robinson should cut down on those interceptions because he understands the offense better, even though he'll still probably toss up some jump balls that come down in the hands of guys wearing different-colored jerseys.  He will still be fast and run the ball a lot.  Along with Wisconsin running back Montee Ball, Robinson is one of two preseason Big Ten favorites to enter the Heisman race.  He will probably throw too many picks and lose too many games to win the award, but he's clearly the biggest star quarterback in the conference.  Very good things will happen.  Great things probably won't.  There's probably no national championship or Heisman coming this season, but Robinson will solidify himself as an all-time Wolverine great, if he hasn't done so already.

And if Robinson gets hurt for any significant portion of the season, the whole thing goes plop.  Gardner has a lot of talent but makes questionable decisions, and #3 quarterback Russell Bellomy looks like he's a year or two away from being a Big Ten-quality starter.

Prediction: Starting quarterback; 2,400 yards passing; 1,200 yards rushing; 34 total touchdowns, 10 interceptions; First Team All-Big Ten; Second Team All-American; Heisman finalist

2012 Season Countdown: #2 Ricky Barnum

Ricky Barnum

Name: Ricky Barnum
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 296 lbs.
High school: Lakeland (FL) Lake Gibson
Position: Center
Class: Redshirt senior
Jersey number: #52
Last year: I ranked Barnum #16 and said he would be the starting left guard. He started three games at left guard before suffering an ankle injury.

Much like the recently profiled Fitzgerald Toussaint, Ricky Barnum has consistently been injured throughout his career.  Of course, Toussaint stayed mostly healthy last season and had a stellar season.  Despite being a fifth year senior, Barnum has played in just nine career games - two in 2009, three in 2010, and four in 2011.  He started three games last year, but he suffered an ankle injury that saw him replaced by Michael Schofield, who never relinquished the job.  Barnum has never been outstanding, but the coaches like him and he's a solid player.

Barnum has practiced snapping the ball throughout his college career after playing center in high school; but he has never taken a snap in college.  However, with the departure of Rimington Award winner David Molk and no clear heir, the coaches asked Barnum to move from left guard to center.  He's fairly short and quick for a lineman, so both of those traits bode well.  Unfortunately, if recent trends continue, he'll only be healthy enough to play in five games this season.  His backups are even less experienced.  First off the bench will likely be redshirt freshman Jack Miller, who is just 6'4" and 288 lbs., so he's a little slight.  Other options at center include former walk-on Joey Burzynski, who is also competing for the left guard position; and redshirt senior Elliott Mealer, who has been starting at left guard in recent days.  Both have played center in practice at times over their careers.  I hesitated to place Barnum this high on the list, but Michigan fans have seen what happens when the starting center leaves the game, most recently in the first series of the Sugar Bowl when Rocko Khoury replaced Molk.  Barnum can be an adequate player this season, but if/when he gets injured, it could seriously hamper the timing and effectiveness of Michigan's offense.

Prediction: Starting center

2012 Season Countdown: #3 Taylor Lewan

Taylor Lewan (#77)

Name: Taylor Lewan
Height: 6'8"
Weight: 309 lbs.
High school: Scottsdale (AZ) Chaparral
Position: Offensive tackle
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #77
Last year: I ranked Lewan #4 and said he would be All-Big Ten Second Team.  He started all thirteen games and was named All-Big Ten Second Team by the coaches.

Lewan had an excellent season in 2011.  He started every game at left tackle as a sophomore after starting nine games there as a freshman.  He has continued to improve in almost every facet of the game, including leadership and cutting down on the mental errors.  Last year he was one of two stellar offensive linemen on the team, along with David Molk (pictured above), and those two paved the way for two 1,000-yard rushers in Denard Robinson and Fitzgerald Toussaint.  Lewan also has the quick feet and long arms that programs covet for their left tackles.

Along with running back Toussaint, Lewan will be one to watch as a potential early entrant to the NFL Draft.  Now approaching 310 lbs. and with his resume and steady improvement, there's good reason to believe that this could be his last season in Ann Arbor.  Size has been a little bit of a question mark because he was very thin coming out of high school, but he has consistently put on weight from season to season and now has the bulk to approach the elite level of college tackles.  I try to remain objective when it comes to Michigan players, but he looks like a future first round draft pick and a potential franchise left tackle.  I can't picture NFL teams passing up on a guy like him; or perhaps I should say, you don't see guys like this get drafted in the second or third round.  Some people might want Lewan higher on this list, but he has a capable backup . . . in the form of starting right tackle Michael Schofield.  If Lewan were to get injured, Schofield would slide over to replace him; a right tackle is easier to replace than a left.  But as long as Michigan State's William Gholston doesn't go all Ronda Rousey on Lewan, then hopefully he can stay on the field and protect Robinson's blind side.

Prediction: Starting left tackle; All-Big Ten First Team

2012 Season Countdown: #4 Fitzgerald Toussaint

Fitzgerald Toussaint

 Name: Fitzgerald Toussaint
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 202 lbs.
High school: Youngstown (OH) Liberty
Position: Running back
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #28
Last year: I ranked Toussaint #53 and said he would be a backup running back and kick returner.  He started eleven games at tailback and had 187 carries for 1,041 yards (5.6 yards per carry) and 9 touchdowns.  He also caught 6 passes for 28 yards (4.7 yards per catch) and 1 touchdown.

If I awarded an annual Underranked Player of the Year trophy, it would go to Fitzgerald Toussaint.  It wasn't that I was down on Toussaint's abilities, but I didn't expect him to stay healthy.  There always seem to be a couple players who suffer from perpetual injuries, and he was one up to that point.  Toussaint took over the starting running back job and rushed for 120+ yards in four out of the last six games.  His best performance came against Illinois, when he rushed 27 times for 192 yards and a touchdown.  He's got the best of both worlds, because he's part Jitterbug and part Mini-Plow; he can make you miss and gain some tough yards.

Naturally, once he rid himself of the injury bug, he caught the Grady-Stonum bug and got picked up by the police for driving under the influence of things that should not have been influencing him.  It's unclear how soon he will be cleared to play, although he missed some practice time and most people (including me) think he should miss at least the first half of the opener against Alabama, if not more.  The loss of Toussaint for the Alabama game could potentially be disastrous.  The coaches like Thomas Rawls and so do a lot of analysts and fans, but he only has 13 carries under his belt and does not have the elusiveness of Toussaint.  Rawls is going to have to break tackles that Toussaint would likely avoid, and that's going to slow down the offense.  Whenever #28 returns to action, he should pick up where he left off and have another great performance this season.  A missed start or two could cost him some end-of-season accolades within the Big Ten, and the presence of guys like Montee Ball, Rex Burkhead, and Le'Veon Bell in the conference could drop him to All-Big Ten Honorable Mention or even off the list altogether.

Prediction: Starting running back (whenever he returns); 180 carries, 1020 yards, 10 touchdowns

Poll results: Ricky Barnum got 69% of the vote for the #3 spot, while Toussaint got 30%.

2012 Season Countdown: #5 Jordan Kovacs

Jordan Kovacs

Name: Jordan Kovacs
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 202 lbs.
High school: Curtice (OH) Clay
Position: Safety
Class: Redshirt senior
Jersey number: #32
Last year: I ranked Kovacs #13 and said he would make 75 tackles.  He was All-Big Ten Honorable Mention with 75 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 interception.

Nope, that's not a typo - I predicted the exact number of tackles Kovacs would make.  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.  Kovacs had very good season in 2011, when he finally had a defensive coordinator who understood his strengths and weaknesses.  Greg Mattison used him as a blitzer, contain man, and disguising his underneath coverage responsibilities.  Mattison avoided using Kovacs deep whenever possible, and that allowed the sure-tackling safety to find the ball carrier and bring him to the ground.  His best game in 2011 came against Western Michigan when he had 10 tackles and 2 sacks, including the fumble-causing hit that linebacker Brandon Herron returned for a touchdown.  Last season also marked the third consecutive year in which Kovacs grabbed a pick in a big game - Wisconsin in 2009, Ohio State and Notre Dame in 2010, and then Notre Dame again in 2011.

Going into the 2012 season, Kovacs is one of the most indispensable members of the team - from walk-on to likely team captain.  His backups are junior Marvin Robinson and freshman Allen Gant, with Josh Furman also able to play there if necessary.  Robinson is a capable backup, but last year's legal struggles and some mental lapses place him a step or two below Kovacs.  There's not much we don't know about Kovacs at this point.  He's a very good tackler, a relentless blitzer, and a heady player.  What he lacks in speed and athleticism, he mostly makes up for in angles and intelligence.  He will be a good-to-very good football player, because he has been since his first season.  I used to bemoan his lack of athleticism as a serious downside, but the deployment of Kovacs is one of the things that convinced me of how well Mattison fit with this team.  Unlike Greg Robinson, who used Kovacs to cover a deep half or the middle of the field in 2009-10, Mattison will continue to blitz Kovacs off the edge and use him mostly as an in-the-box defender.  He will continue to rack up tackles, take down the quarterback a few times, and pick off one or two passes.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Kovacs earn All-Big Ten honors, if only as a Lifetime Achievement Award type of recognition.

Prediction: Starting strong safety; 80 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 interceptions; All-Big Ten Second Team

Poll results: Ricky Barnum was first with 59% and Fitzgerald Toussaint was second with 29% of the votes.  Kovacs was third with just 9%.

2012 Season Countdown: #6 Craig Roh

Craig Roh (#88)

Name: Craig Roh
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 281 lbs.
High school: Scottsdale (AZ) Chaparral
Position: Defensive end
Class: Senior
Jersey number: #88
Last year: I ranked Roh #17 and said he would have 50 tackles and 6 sacks.  He had 32 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, and 1 forced fumble.

It's a little hard to believe for a kid like Roh, but indications last year seemed to be that he struggled to buy in to what the new coaching staff was teaching him.  He was reverting back to old (a.k.a. bad) habits, which is somewhat understandable for a guy who had played outside linebacker in a 4-3 and then outside linebacker in a 3-3-5 stack and then defensive end in a 3-3-5 stack and then weakside defensive end in a 4-3.  In his first three seasons at Michigan, he played four positions.  He had an up-and-down season last year, disappearing for stretches and playing solidly at times.  He was never the elite talent that he appeared to be coming out of high school, but he wasn't bad, either.  He looked like just an average Big Ten starter.  Michigan fans keep waiting for these elite high school weakside ends to turn into elite college players, and it just doesn't seem to happen.

Now make it five positions in four years.  Roh has moved to strongside end to replace the departed Ryan Van Bergen.  He has apparently reached the 280 lb. mark, which is a step in the right direction.  For the most part, Roh has been known as a technique guy - despite his early struggles last season - and should be able to hold his own with even adequate weight.  As a high effort player, he shouldn't be a liability.  Strongside ends often have to take on double-teams from tight ends and tackles, and they're the guys opposing teams will run at most often.  Roh will be solid again in 2012 and pick up where Van Bergen left off, but the lack of a Mike Martin in the middle will hurt his production.

Prediction: Starting strongside end; 40 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks

Poll results: Roh won 61% of the vote for the #6 spot on the countdown.

2012 Season Countdown: #7 William Campbell

I like this high school picture of William Campbell too much not to post it.

Name: William Campbell
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 308 lbs.
High school: Detroit (MI) Cass Tech
Position: Defensive tackle
Class: Senior
Jersey number: #73
Last year: I ranked Campbell #15 and said he would start at 3-tech DT with 40 tackles and 3 sacks.  He had 14 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 pass breakup, and 1 fumble recovery.

Okay, I was a little bit off with my prediction that Campbell would start, that he would be a 3-tech, and that he would make 40 tackles.  In fact, he didn't start, played mostly 1-tech, and made just 14 tackles.  My hopes were dashed.  He was the primary backup to the now departed Mike Martin, and those aren't bad statistics for a backup nose tackle; when Martin was a backup, he made 20 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks.  But Martin was a freshman, and Campbell was a junior.  I expected more.  I still don't really agree with the deployment of Campbell, who would be tough to block for just about any offensive guard one-on-one.  As a nose tackle who struggles to stay low, he's typically playing against centers (who are shorter and almost always use good leverage) and guards (who are sometimes shorter and often use good leverage).  There were plays last season when Campbell destroyed single blocks, and there were plays where he got washed out of the action by double-teams.  I guess the coaches thought they would rather start Will Heininger than have Quinton Washington or Richard Ash be rotation players, so that's what happened.

Now three-fourths of last year's starting defensive line has graduated (Martin, Heininger, and Ryan Van Bergen), and Campbell has to start at nose tackle.  There's really no other option.  He has reportedly taken to his newfound leadership role and slimmed down to 308 lbs. after playing earlier in his career at 340 or 350.  It's now or never for the former 5-star recruit.  The conditioning seems to be in place, but it remains to be seen whether he has the desire and focus to stay low every single play.  One of Martin's best traits was his ability to go hard on almost every play, and he was consistently a disruptive force in the middle of the line because of it.  Ondre Pipkins was expected to be one of Campbell's backups - if not the primary one - but a recent injury might temporarily keep Pipkins from playing.  That leaves Richard Ash, Quinton Washington, and Kenny Wilkins to vie for playing time on the nose, with Ash the likely winner of that battling trio.  Campbell should see a sizable jump in his production, but I think the defense overall is going to dip a little bit because of the loss of Martin and, to a lesser extent, Van Bergen.

Prediction: Starting nose tackle; 35 tackles, 3.5 sacks

Poll results: Campbell won 57% of the vote for the #7 spot.

2012 Season Countdown: #8 Patrick Omameh

Patrick Omameh

Name: Patrick Omameh
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 305 lbs.
High school: Columbus (OH) St. Francis DeSales
Position: Offensive guard
Class: Redshirt senior
Jersey number: #65
Last year: I ranked Omameh #7 and said he would be Second Team All-Big Ten.  He started 13 games at right guard.

Omameh started every game last year, and while he wasn't quite as good as I expected, the offensive line did fairly well.  He was named to Phil Steele's midseason All-Big Ten Second Team, but he struggled with his pulling, especially early in the year.  As the season went along and Michigan seemed to use more spread plays, Omameh appeared to get more comfortable with the footwork that offensive line coach Darrell Funk was using.

Omameh enters 2012 as a fourth-year starter at right guard.  He has experience in Al Borges's offense now and should pick up where he left off in the second half of 2011, paving the way for both Fitzgerald Toussaint and Denard Robinson to gain over 1,000 yards.  His primary backup is redshirt freshman Chris Bryant, who is a good drive blocker but needs work on his pass sets.  I think Bryant is going to be a good player, but he might be a year away from being effective . . . and aside from him, there are just true freshmen or walk-ons.  The loss of Omameh for any significant period of time could seriously derail Michigan's rushing offense with the question mark at left guard and a new starter at center.  I hate to predict the same thing as last year when I was wrong, but I think that Omameh will step up his performance another notch this season.

Prediction: Starting right guard; Second Team All-Big Ten

2012 Season Countdown: #9 Blake Countess

Blake Countess

Name: Blake Countess
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 180 lbs.
High school: Olney (MD) Good Counsel
Position: Cornerback
Class: Sophomore
Jersey number: #18
Last year: I ranked Countess #59 and said he would be a backup cornerback.  He started six games and 44 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 6 pass breakups, and 1 forced fumble.

Countess parlayed a series of nagging Troy Woolfolk injuries into a starting cornerback job, and performed well enough to keep that job once Woolfolk was close to full strength again.  I thought that Countess would have to wait a little longer (until, say, 2012) to take over one of the cornerback spots, but it happened almost immediately.  For the most part, he performed well and turned into Michigan's best bet for a shut-down corner in the last several years.  He did get torched against Ohio State and was beaten for a touchdown in the Sugar Bowl, but overall, he had a pretty good season for a true freshman.  ESPN and the Big Ten Network each named him to the league's all-freshman team.

Michigan's entire secondary returns in 2012, including the corner on the opposite side, J.T. Floyd.  Countess plays the field side, which is usually reserved for a guy with a little more speed . . . but the coaches have also mentioned that Countess is the more physical corner of the two.  At a pretty solid 180 lbs., Countess has the strength to play press man coverage and support the run with equal aplomb.  He didn't have any interceptions last season, but he did steal a pass from Devin Gardner to Jeremy Jackson in the spring game.  The two corners might be the second-best duo in the Big Ten, and either one could earn all-conference honors of some sort.  There isn't much depth at the cornerback spots now that Terrence Talbott and Tamani Carter (the latter of whom was a free safety but could have played corner in a pinch) have left the team.  If Countess goes down for a significant period of time, we might see Courtney Avery bump out from the slot corner position or see some snaps from 162 lb. true freshman Terry Richardson.  Avery could hack it out there, but after that, things get very shaky.  Recent injuries to Floyd and Woolfolk notwithstanding, it seems like cornerback is a less physically taxing position than some other spots, so hopefully Countess can stay healthy and take the next step toward becoming an All-Big Ten corner.

Prediction: Starting field corner; 55 tackles, 2 interceptions

Poll results: Countess won 81% of the vote for the #9 spot.

2012 Season Countdown: #10 Thomas Gordon

Thomas Gordon

Name: Thomas Gordon
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 207 lbs.
High school: Detroit (MI) Cass Tech
Position: Safety
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #30
Last year: I ranked Gordon #34 and said he would be the slot corner.  He started 10 games at free safety, making 67 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 2 pass breakups, 1 interception, 2 forced fumbles, and 4 fumble recoveries.

For a redshirt sophomore playing his first season at free safety, Gordon had an outstanding season in 2011.  In the spring of last year, he was practicing at slot corner and doing an excellent job.  The lack of depth at free safety - perhaps combined with Gordon's playmaking abilities - jumped him into the top spot playing center field.  Toward the beginning of the year, he had a highlight-reel, one-handed interception on a double pass against Eastern Michigan; he also picked up a fumble in that game and went on to grab three more on the year.  For some unknown reason, he lost some playing time late in the season to Troy Woolfolk (who lost his cornerback job), despite only an occasional slip-up like in the Nebraska game.  Overall, he was a very solid player.

Now he's the incumbent free safety with no strong challenger for his job, but he has been rumored to be the best defensive player on the team; that was the case in the spring, and the rumors have persisted so far this fall.  He will never be the fastest free safety, but he rarely gets out of position, tackles well, and always seems to be around the football.  Gordon's primary backup appears to be freshman Jarrod Wilson, and true freshman safeties make me nervous.  Wilson needs to sharpen his skills in non-critical moments until he gains the awareness and strength not to be a liability back there.  Josh Furman and Marvin Robinson could also play free safety, but neither one excels in space.  Provided he stays healthy, this should be a bit of a breakout season for Gordon, who could earn some all-conference honors if he continues to improve.

Prediction: Starting free safety; 70 tackles, 2 interceptions; All-Big Ten Honorable Mention

Poll results: Gordon was first with 59% of the vote.

2012 Season Countdown: #11 Michael Schofield

Michael Schofield (#75)

Name: Michael Schofield
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 300 lbs.
High school: Orland Park (IL) Sandburg
Position: Offensive tackle
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #75
Last year: I ranked Schofield #42 and said he would be a backup offensive tackle.  Schofield started 10 games at left guard and played in all 13 games on special teams.

At 6'7" and around 300 lbs., not many people expected that Schofield would play guard at Michigan.  In fact, when he came in for the injured Ricky Barnum early last season, it was the first time in his life that he had played guard.  Barnum suffered a lower leg injury that kept him from getting back to full strength, and Schofield played fairly well in his stead.  One might expect that someone with Schofield's height would struggle on the interior, but he used his athleticism (he was a high school hurdler) to pull and maneuver through traffic.

The guy blocking Schofield's path at right tackle (Mark Huyge) has graduated now, and the dearth of non-freshman tackles requires that he move back to the perimeter.  That opens up a hole at left guard now that Barnum has moved to center, but Schofield can't be the answer there anymore.  Many people think Michigan's pair of tackles is its best in years.  Taylor Lewan holds down the left tackle position and might be an All-American and/or a future first round draft pick, and Schofield has a chance to develop into a very good tackle over the next couple seasons.  Jake Long never had a strong tackle on the opposite side, so perhaps the 2000 season (Jeff Backus at LT, Maurice Williams at RT) was the last time Michigan was this good in the perimeter of the line.  It's imperative that the two tackles stay healthy, or else freshmen will likely have to step in there.

Prediction: Starting right tackle

Poll results: Schofield got 35% of the vote for #11, while Thomas Gordon was first with 39%.

2012 Season Countdown: #12 Jake Ryan

Jake Ryan

Name: Jake Ryan
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 242 lbs.
High school: Westlake (OH) St. Ignatius
Position: Linebacker
Class: Redshirt sophomore
Jersey number: #90
Last year: I ranked Ryan #27 and said he would be the backup SAM with 40 tackles and 2 sacks.  He started eleven games at the position, making 37 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble, and 2 fumble recoveries.

Ryan probably had the biggest breakout season of any defender in 2011.  As I hinted at in last year's countdown, he's the type of kid who's just always around the ball.  In the opener against WMU, he hit the quarterback and caused the interception that was returned 94 yards for a touchdown by Brandon Herron.  Against San Diego State, he recovered two fumbles.  And in his most explosive game, the Sugar Bowl vs. Virginia Tech, Ryan made 7 tackles, 1 sack, and 4 tackles for loss, including a tackle of running back David Wilson 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage.  Ryan wasn't perfect; he lost outside contain at times and wasn't great in pass coverage, but he was pretty good for a redshirt freshman.

This season he will likely continue to hold off Cam Gordon for the SAM linebacker job.  Ryan has put on about twelve pounds in the offseason and looks considerably bigger.  He played some snaps at defensive end in pass rush situations, and that role will probably expand with the unknown future of weakside end Frank Clark, who will likely face a suspension or worse for his alleged role in stealing a computer.  Currently, Ryan and Gordon are the only two SAMs, so an injury to either one could force the coaches to shift another linebacker to the strong side.  Ryan is going to see lots of playing time this year, and he's going to be rushing the quarterback from every angle possible.  Not only will he be a better player in 2012; he should be more consistent.

Prediction: Starting SAM linebacker; 45 tackles, 5 sacks

2012 Season Countdown: #13 Roy Roundtree

Roy Roundtree

Name: Roy Roundtree
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 180 lbs.
High school: Trotwood (OH) Trotwood-Madison
Position: Wide receiver
Class: Redshirt senior
Jersey number: #21
Last year: I ranked Roundtree #11 and said he would have 850 yards and 7 touchdowns.  He had 19 receptions for 355 yards (18.7 yards per reception) and 2 touchdowns.

Boy, was I wrong about Roundtree last season.  Coming off a stellar 2010 campaign, I thought he would start where he left off and continue his synchronous relationship with Denard Robinson.  Instead, Roundtree failed to catch a pass in three games and averaged just 1.9 receptions per game in the ones where he actually caught a ball.  He did make some nice plays, particularly against Notre Dame and Nebraska.  But the adjustment from slot receiver in Rich Rodriguez's offense to split end in Al Borges's offense really took its toll, to the point where 5'8" slot/split end Jeremy Gallon caught 31 balls, twelve more than last year's returning leading receiver.

Roundtree makes yet another position move in 2012, this time to flanker.  He replaces the departed Junior Hemingway, who had 34 catches and 699 yards.  Hemingway was targeted more often than Roundtree, and now Roundtree will likely become the primary passing target.  The flanker typically lines up on the same side of the field as a tight end or slot receiver, so there are more combination routes on that side of the field.  With no obvious passing target from the tight end corps now that Kevin Koger has graduated, Roundtree might be targeted more often than Hemingway was.  Unfortunately, Roundtree recently had arthroscopic surgery on his knee, which might get him off to a slow start this season.  Freshman receivers Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson could alleviate the loss of Roundtree, as could the emergence of redshirt sophomore Jerald Robinson, whom departing seniors guessed would have a breakout season in 2012.  But Roundtree should be more polished this season and has more speed than Robinson, so hopefully he can come back from his minor knee surgery and make an impact early in the season.

Prediction: Starting wide receiver; 30 receptions, 500 yards, 4 touchdowns

2012 Season Countdown: #14 Kenny Demens

Kenny Demens

Name: Kenny Demens
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 242 lbs.
High school: Detroit (MI) Country Day
Position: Linebacker
Class: Redshirt senior
Jersey number: #25
Last year: I ranked Demens #3 and said he would have 100 tackles.  He had 94 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 2 pass breakups, and 1 forced fumble.

Demens went from a part-time starter in 2010 to almost never coming off the field in 2011.  At a solid 248 lbs., he looked like a prototypical linebacker for a 4-3 defense.  He was pretty good against the run and pretty good against the pass, although he never really seemed to have a signature play or signature game.  Ask a bunch of Michigan fans what their favorite Demens play is, and you'll either get no answer or a bunch of different answers.  Regardless, he was a mainstay on the field, even in obvious passing situations when a 6'1", 248-pounder with seemingly limited athleticism might seem to be a liability.

Now Demens has lost six pounds, which is probably a good thing.  While he wasn't overweight last season, the Big Ten is no longer a power run-heavy league and his weight seemed to be a bit cumbersome for chasing down all the spread running backs and receivers.  Maybe being a little lighter will give him an extra half step to make a few more plays, and 242 isn't small by any means.  I put Demens at #3 last season partly because he had no viable backup, and that was evidenced by the fact that he was rarely replaced, except in blowouts.  Now that freshman Joe Bolden is on campus, Demens should be able to get a breather.  Bolden likely won't be a crunch-time player, but he's more reliable than the backup MIKEs who were available last season.  Brandin Hawthorne also got more reps at MIKE in the spring and could be a situational replacement there, although he's more of a weakside 'backer.  Demens should get a little more rest this season, but he'll still have a big impact on the defense.

Prediction: 90 tackles, 1 interception

2012 Season Countdown: #15 Devin Gardner

Devin Gardner

Name: Devin Gardner
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 203 lbs.
High school: Inkster (MI) Inkster
Position: Quarterback, wide receiver
Class: Junior
Jersey number: #12
Last year: I ranked Gardner #25 and said he would be the backup quarterback.  He was 11/23 passing (47.8%) for 176 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception.  He also rushed 25 times for 53 yards (2.1 yards per carry) and 1 touchdown.

More so than in 2010, starting quarterback Denard Robinson avoided getting dinged up, which kept Gardner from having to take control of the team.  Most crunch-time snaps that he took in 2011 were in Michigan's "Deuce" package, in which Gardner took snaps with Robinson at running back or wide receiver.  There were some explosive plays with the duo on the field, but sometimes it seemed to get the offense out of rhythm.  Gardner's passing and rushing numbers from last season were not impressive, and there were some times he made some inexplicable decisions.  With all the recruiting hype and his early playing time in 2010, people expected better decision-making from Gardner.  But it might be key to remember that Gardner should have been a redshirt freshman in 2011, and he was in his first year of a pro-style system.  We should have expected that there would be growing pains; after all, Robinson had his own growing pains (including 15 interceptions), and that was after getting starting QB reps for the entire spring and pre-season.

As a junior in 2012, Gardner is expected to improve his decision-making at quarterback . . . and he will also be seeing some time at wide receiver.  With the loss of three senior receivers, including the somewhat dynamic Junior Hemingway, Michigan is looking for a big-play guy.  When Gardner plays receiver, he's automatically the best athlete at the position - a 6'4", leaping speedster.  Otherwise, the receiving corps is small, slow, and/or inexperienced.  It will be interesting to see whether Gardner can handle being the #2 quarterback and a contributing wide receiver.  The playbook shouldn't be the issue (quarterbacks have to know the receivers' routes already, anyway), but the technique of his new position might pose a problem.  If I'm an opposing defensive coordinator, I'm going to have my corners play press man coverage on Gardner and test whether he can handle the physicality of the position.  I don't expect Gardner to suddenly become a 60% passer, and I don't expect him to immediately be a 1,000-yard receiver.  However, I do think he has the potential to do either/both because of his physical talents.  Gardner isn't the most important guy on the team because he might not start, but he should be a key backup in two spots and has the potential to be a darn good player.

Prediction: Backup quarterback and wide receiver; 25 receptions, 425 yards, 3 touchdowns

2012 Season Countdown: #16 J.T. Floyd

J.T. Floyd

Name: J.T. Floyd
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 183 lbs.
High school: Greenville (SC) J.L. Mann
Position: Cornerback
Class: Redshirt senior
Jersey number: #8
Last year: I ranked Floyd #37 and said he would be a backup cornerback.  He started all 13 games and had 48 tackles, 8 pass breakups, 2 interceptions, and 1 forced fumble.

Last year I assumed Floyd would be the backup to Troy Woolfolk while Courtney Avery won the field corner job.  Instead, Avery played in the slot while Floyd and Woolfolk manned the outside spots.  Floyd played well enough to be named Honorable Mention All-Big Ten.  Some people saw marked improvement from his 2010 season; I saw slight improvement.  Some people overrated his performance based on a nice interception against Illinois; some people say I underrated his performance based on him getting burnt deep against Nebraska and Ohio State.

With Avery entrenched at the slot corner position and Blake Countess having established himself at field corner, the defensive backfield returns all four (or five, if you count Avery) starters.  Floyd should be expected to carry on with his solid but unspectacular performance.  His athleticism would seem to hold him back from making a huge leap, but hopefully he will continue to improve under the tutelage of Curt Mallory, who is a significantly better coach than former cornerbacks coach Tony Gibson.  I think the loss of three starters on the defensive line will give quarterbacks an extra split second to throw, which may hurt Michigan's overall pass defense.  The disappearance of Terrence Talbott leaves a small void behind Floyd, but Raymon Taylor got some experience last season and bulked up in the offseason to 182 lbs.; he should be Floyd's primary backup at boundary corner, with Blake Countess also a possibility to slide over in case of a long-term injury.  Floyd should repeat his Honorable Mention performance.  Anything more or less would be slightly surprising.

Prediction: Starting cornerback; 55 tackles, 2 interceptions

2012 Season Countdown: #17 Jibreel Black

Jibreel Black (#55)

Name: Jibreel Black
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 279 lbs.
High school: Cincinnati (OH) Wyoming
Position: Defensive tackle
Class: Junior
Jersey number: #55
Last year: I ranked Black #23 and said he would be a backup defensive end.  He made 18 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, and 1 forced fumble as a backup defensive end.

Black had a decent season in 2011, but has yet to have a breakout year.  Ideally, he would have redshirted as a freshman in 2010, but a shortage of defensive linemen forced him into action that year.  Michigan's coaching staff reportedly wanted him to bulk up prior to spring 2011, but he came in weighing around 260, anyway; it seems he balked at playing too heavy in hopes of retaining some athleticism.  That got him off on the wrong foot a little bit, which helped solidify Craig Roh as the starting weakside end last season.  Black saw his fair share of snaps in 2011, and even had a signature play when he helped sack Braxton Miller on a key goal-line play late against Ohio State.  But in general, he was a little too stiff and slow at that WDE position and the coaches asked him to bulk up even more for a move to 3-tech defensive tackle.

It's quite a leap from weakside end to 3-tech tackle.  He should be familiar with the position, having played next to Will Heininger last year.  But a normal progression would be to strongside end, but Roh already took that spot.  The hope is that Black can use his quickness to outmaneuver some offensive guards, which he'll have to do if he wants to make an impact as a 279 lb. tackle.  Black's size doesn't really concern me, because plenty of 3-techs have been just fine around 280 lbs.  The biggest thing that concerns me about Black is the technique; he'll have to get better at using his hands inside to get rid of blocks.  Options are limited for quality play at the 3-tech.  There aren't really any quality backups at the position, but I don't know that Black will be a quality starter this year, either.  He's essentially playing his third position in three years (SDE as a freshman, WDE as a sophomore, and now DT), so it might take him another year to get comfortable on the interior.  Quinton Washington, Richard Ash, and Ken Wilkins might also see some time there, but all three are very unproven as even part-time contributors.

Prediction: Starting defensive tackle; 25 tackles, 3 sacks

2012 Season Countdown: #18 Thomas Rawls

Thomas Rawls (#38)

Name: Thomas Rawls
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 218 lbs.
High school: Flint (MI) Northern
Position: Running back
Class: Sophomore
Jersey number: #38
Last year: I ranked Rawls #56 and said he would be a backup running back.  He had 13 carries for 79 yards (6.1 yards per carry).

I can't say I'm a fan of the way Rawls was used last season.  I'm not sure why the #4 running back on the roster (behind Fitzgerald Toussaint, Michael Shaw, and Vincent Smith) needed to burn a potentially valuable redshirt to run the ball a few times against Eastern Michigan, Minnesota, and Purdue.  His 10 carries against Minnesota were in garbage time, and someone else could have picked up those other 3 carries against EMU and the Boilermakers.  Inexperienced running backs can step right in and be very good, so I don't think he needed those 13 carries in order to be ready for 2012.

But going into 2012, Rawls might be the game one starter after all.  It looks like incumbent starter Toussaint will be suspended for at least part of the Alabama game due to his drunk driving arrest, which leaves the running back duties up to Rawls, Smith, and guys who have never stepped on the field at Michigan.  Rawls ran well in the spring game back in April, and reports from practice say Rawls "runs angry."  He's a battering ram with a little bit of speed.  Toussaint had success against good defenses last year, so he's a known quantity.  Rawls had success against bad teams and Michigan's backups in the spring, so he's still a little unproven.  I'm going to go out on a limb and trust practice reports here, so I expect Rawls to be pretty solid . . . but I also hope Toussaint doesn't have any more slip-ups and can return as soon as Brady Hoke sees fit.

Prediction: Part-time starting running back; 80 carries, 360 yards, 3 touchdowns

2012 Season Countdown: #19 Jeremy Gallon

Jeremy Gallon

Name: Jeremy Gallon
Height: 5'8"
Weight: 187 lbs.
High school: Apopka (FL) Apopka
Position: Wide receiver
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #10
Last year: I ranked Gallon #51 and said he would be a backup receiver and backup returner.  He started 1 game at receiver and started at returner, catching 31 passes for 453 yards (14.6 yards per catch) and 3 touchdowns; rushed 3 times for 26 yards; returned 3 kickoffs for 46 yards; and returned 19 punts for 192 yards.

I underestimated Gallon's impact in 2011, partly because Al Borges ran more spread sets than I expected and got Gallon the ball on a lot of short throws (as well as a few long ones).  Despite being just 5'8", he turned into Michigan's second-most productive receiver and even snagged the occasional jump ball.  He also improved his decision making on punt returns, allowing him to average a solid 10.1 yards per return.  Gallon isn't the fastest guy around, but he's solidly built and extremely shifty.  If defenders are one-on-one with him in open space, they might as well just fall to the ground and get it over with.

Gallon will likely be expected to start in 2012 at the split end position now that former split end Roy Roundtree has moved to flanker.  While his size might still limit his ability to make plays downfield, Gallon should be able to get open underneath, from the slot, and on some more screen passes.  Michigan lost a large chunk of production from the 2011 receiving corps to graduation (Junior Hemingway, Martavious Odoms, Kelvin Grady), so someone has to step up.  I expect to see a small bump in production this season, but Gallon is more of a complementary receiver than a future star, so his ceiling as a receiver isn't a great deal higher than what we saw last season.  It will also be interesting to see whether the coaches use Gallon as a full-time returner now that his role on offense will increase.  My guess is that he will continue as the punt returner but drop out of the race to return kickoffs.

Prediction: Starting wide receiver and punt returner; 40 receptions, 540 yards, 5 touchdowns; 1 punt return touchdown