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| Devin Gardner |
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 203 lbs.
High school: Inkster (MI) Inkster
Position: Quarterback, wide receiver
Class: Junior
Jersey number: #12
Last year: I ranked Gardner #25 and said he would be the backup quarterback. He was 11/23 passing (47.8%) for 176 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. He also rushed 25 times for 53 yards (2.1 yards per carry) and 1 touchdown.
More so than in 2010, starting quarterback Denard Robinson avoided getting dinged up, which kept Gardner from having to take control of the team. Most crunch-time snaps that he took in 2011 were in Michigan's "Deuce" package, in which Gardner took snaps with Robinson at running back or wide receiver. There were some explosive plays with the duo on the field, but sometimes it seemed to get the offense out of rhythm. Gardner's passing and rushing numbers from last season were not impressive, and there were some times he made some inexplicable decisions. With all the recruiting hype and his early playing time in 2010, people expected better decision-making from Gardner. But it might be key to remember that Gardner should have been a redshirt freshman in 2011, and he was in his first year of a pro-style system. We should have expected that there would be growing pains; after all, Robinson had his own growing pains (including 15 interceptions), and that was after getting starting QB reps for the entire spring and pre-season.
As a junior in 2012, Gardner is expected to improve his decision-making at quarterback . . . and he will also be seeing some time at wide receiver. With the loss of three senior receivers, including the somewhat dynamic Junior Hemingway, Michigan is looking for a big-play guy. When Gardner plays receiver, he's automatically the best athlete at the position - a 6'4", leaping speedster. Otherwise, the receiving corps is small, slow, and/or inexperienced. It will be interesting to see whether Gardner can handle being the #2 quarterback and a contributing wide receiver. The playbook shouldn't be the issue (quarterbacks have to know the receivers' routes already, anyway), but the technique of his new position might pose a problem. If I'm an opposing defensive coordinator, I'm going to have my corners play press man coverage on Gardner and test whether he can handle the physicality of the position. I don't expect Gardner to suddenly become a 60% passer, and I don't expect him to immediately be a 1,000-yard receiver. However, I do think he has the potential to do either/both because of his physical talents. Gardner isn't the most important guy on the team because he might not start, but he should be a key backup in two spots and has the potential to be a darn good player.
Prediction: Backup quarterback and wide receiver; 25 receptions, 425 yards, 3 touchdowns
I sure hope Gardner scores more than 3 touchdowns, whichever position he plays.
ReplyDeleteI would imagine he'll score more than 3 with some snaps coming at quarterback, too...but it's impossible to predict how many snaps he'll get at QB, since it mainly depends on whether Robinson gets hurt or not.
DeleteRight.
DeleteI'm just hoping that between the two postions, QB and WR, he scores at least half a dozen. We're in year two under the same coaches; I hope this team lights up the scoreboard ala the Nebraska game.
Once he masters some technique, I can't imagine him (at 205#) having trouble getting jammed at the line of scrimmage, unless there's some softness in his demeanor that hasn't showed itself.
ReplyDeleteGardner was an arm-punt machine at the spring game. it was ouchy.
ReplyDeleteMichigan didn't run a pro-style system in 2011. Their scheme was a hodge-podge (or 'hybrid', if you prefer) but was mostly spread. 49 of 64 plays against OSU came from the shotgun. The system was essentially the same as Rodriguez's, with a different passing game package. There was some pro-style sprinkled in for...development or variety or something? Regardless, everyone forgets that Rodriguez, too, used some pro-style packages (e.g., Iowa 2010). Borges obviously uses it more often, and seems to WANT to use it - but Denard works best in a spread.
ReplyDeleteAs for Gardner -- I've been arguing this forever -- he's a spread QB too. That's why Rodriguez recruited him. Because he's tall people seem to think he's a good fit for a pro-style offense (which he hasn't run and no team that he's ever been on has run) - but Vince Young was tall too. Gardner's best asset is his athleticism. The coaches did say (or imply) that Gardner was a better passer than Denard, but I haven't seen evidence of that. Denard seems to have a stronger arm and flashes excellent accuracy at times. Both Gardner and Robinson have a long way to go as passers yet.
The good news is that people have stopped making the (always stupid) argument that Denard should move to WR and have moved on to Gardner. Gardner to WR makes way more sense. It gives the team something they might not have otherwise.
This is a fair spot for his ranking. He's a backup but he's an important one and he'll likely play an important role this season at two key positions. If it wasn't for Bellomy seeming like a competent backup QB he would deserve to be ranked even higher.
I don't remember Gardner playing QB in the OSU game, so I'm not sure why that's relevant. Early in the season, Borges was trying to force the pro-style offense down our throats...and that's when Gardner saw most of his playing time. As the season wore on, Michigan ran more spread and Gardner played less often, except for the beatdown of Illinois.
DeleteYou wrote "he was in his first year of a pro-style system" and the Michigan offense wasn't a pro-style system. The OSU game is just an example of what the Michigan offense actually was. That is irrelevant only if you argue that Michigan's backup QB ran an entirely different system from it's starter.
DeleteAnyone that's still doing it - it's time to disabuse yourself from the notion that Gardner is a pro-style QB. He's not Denard Robinson, but he's far closer to Terrel Pryor or Vince Young than he is Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. Let me put it another way - if you're thinking about NFL potential - Gardner's no more likely to be a QB at that level than Denard. There is no evidence available that Gardner is a better passer than Robinson - he's just taller.
My prediction for 2013: the offense is either going to move towards pro-style with Bellomy or Morris or it's going to stick to a shotgun-heavy spread attack that's closer to Rich Rodriguez's vision than Lloyd Carr's.
Lanko, you're splitting hairs that don't need to be split. Michigan's offense evolved as the season wore on. It was largely pro-style early in the year and became more spread as the season progressed, likely due to the ineffectiveness of the two quarterbacks. You're right that Michigan ran a lot of spread against OSU, Virginia Tech, etc. Surely Gardner was running similar plays in November/December/January practices to what we saw in games from Robinson. But since Gardner never got into those games, they really have no bearing on what the coaches think Gardner can do.
DeleteThey ran pro early; Gardner ran pro.
They ran spread late; Gardner didn't play much.
In fact, maybe that's an indication that the coaches do think Gardner is more of a pro-style QB. They trusted him a little bit with the early offense, but when they went to the spread, Robinson took almost all the snaps.
I don't think it's splitting hairs. They did phase out the pro-set plays to some degree (MSU was a harsh lesson learned) but (according to Mgoblog) even WMU was 70% shotgun (not that shotgun necessarily means pro-style or spread, but if you're running it with a safe lead against a MAC team...) Even if they ran more pro stuff early, the offense was still mostly spread. And how much of the pro-style stuff was opponent driven? I'd rather test out components of my 'new' package against EMU than Nebraska. In short: they read spread early AND late.
DeleteAs for Gardner's playing time - he threw 7 passes in the first 6 games and 16 in the next 6. He had 9 carries in the first 6 games and 16 carries in the next six. In other words - Gardner didn't play early OR late, he played in the middle of the season mostly. That's when Denard got hurt. So, no, I wouldn't view this as some sort of pro-style endorsement of Gardner at all. The best argument for that was that the 'Denard Jet' package was a pro-style, but again, that was there as a wrinkle or change-of-base, not an indicator of what the main core of the offense was.
I think you're really reaching here to suit your preconceptions. I also think you're looking at it glass-half-empty. Michigan's offense evolved away from (limited) pro-style because it proved pretty damn successful with spread.
I would disagree that the coaches opinion depends only on games played. It's going to be mostly formulated by what they see - which is mostly practices. Especially since the 3-month time frame of Nov-Jan has only 5 games.
I'd expect the coaches, this season, to keep doing what they're doing. Use a spread-heavy offense with pro-style plays (or pass packages) incorporated to keep defenses on their heels.
DeleteIt's still a spread offense, mostly and I think it'll still be a spread offense mostly next year - unless Gardner moves to WR full time. If that happens, they really should find another QB in this class instead of going after another WR recruit.
Magnus, do you think Gardner has the quick twitch athletic ability to excel at receiver? I understand his athleticism is outstanding for the quarterback position and his height should allow him to be a possession guy, but do you think he has elite athleticism as a receiver? in his brief time on the field it seems as though he lacks the quickness/acceleration required to create seperation.
ReplyDeleteYes, I do. He's a long strider and a glider, so he's not going to give you the same shake-and-bake moves as Martavious Odoms or Jeremy Gallon. I think Adrian Arrington might be a pretty good comparison for Gardner, a tall guy who's not blazingly fast or lightning quick but has plenty of speed and athleticism.
DeleteIt's Gardner's stride that creates that illusion. When he runs with the ball, he doesn't look like he's going real fast, but other players seem to be wearing leg weights.
DeleteHe's not a true burner, but he's a smooth athlete and accelerates well into space.
Bottom line about Gardner is that he is ill-suited for QB. He was in his third round of spring practices a few months ago and still looked awkward and showed little progress from spring 2010. Physical tools aside, the comfort, decision making, and vision in the passing game are just not there. And though fast, he does not have the decisiveness and (to a lesser extent) the start-stop quickness to do what effective zone-read QB's do.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, his potential at WR is terrific. As mentioned above, he has deceptive top end speed for his size and his gliding style of running suits WR just fine. He is well built and he has big hands. Experience at QB can only help. I'm hoping he makes a big splash at WR in part so the coaches can get serious about a QB replacement in 2013. Flirting with Gardner is a waste because he would not survive a full season as a QB starter.
I agree to some extent - he's not close to being a pro-style QB right now. But you know, he still has time to develop at the position. Unfortunately, moving to WR won't help that any.
DeleteAs a runner, he doesn't have to be a zone-read QB to be effective. For example, he seems like a better scrambler than Denard - who takes a long time to decide to run on passing plays. If you're running a bootleg, Gardner's probably the bigger threat. He might be comparable in a QB draw. But yeah, Denard is a RB who can throw - Gardner is not. Still, if there's anything we've learned in the past decade it's that being able to run from the QB position is extremely valuable. Gardner, quite clearly, can do that. He'll be a solid QB as long as the coaches orient their scheme around his skills. Ohio State did that pretty well with Pryor.
Regarding his potential at WR - it's hard to say without seeing Gardner do it. My concern is that he's just a very good (but not great) overall athlete and that without finding a home he'll never hone the technique and knowledge necessary to excel.
I agree that Gardner is plenty fast to hurt a defense on QB runs. But the quick decision making and vision are not there for him, regardless of system. He looked unnatural and ineffective in zone read under RR. So fans hyping him have talked him up as needing a drop-back system the last 18 months. Low and behold, he also looks uncomfortable in the pocket (much less comfortable than Denard, ironically). He looked like a true freshman out there in the spring game. Others may still hold out hope (or hype), but I have given up on his prospects at QB.
DeleteQB development, for Rich Rod or for a pro style QB, can take time. Changing coordinators would understandably slow down development. I wouldn't close the book on Gardner yet, especially if he gets the red-shirt. If not, there may not be much reward for the coaches to be patient with him at QB.
DeleteMagnus, you may be wrong, or you may be right about predicting a season for Gardner. I suspect that you will be mostly right, because you usually are mostly right about player personnel.
ReplyDeleteWhat I really like is that you put it on the line, and give us numbers to represent what you think the season will be like. And I just can't imagine any more unpredictable, hard to figure group of stats, than Devin Gardner's 2012 stats. We don't even know which end of most passes he will be on! Do we do recieving yards, or passing yards? It's like Northwestern. If, God Forbid, Denard Robinson doesn't survive Alabama, who the hell knows what they will do with Devin Gardner?
Kudos to you, Magnus, for putting it all out there with your predictions. I think it will be a good thing if you are right in this case. Better than seeing what happens if we need Devin Gardner to throw for 330 attempts in 2012.
Section 1
Thanks, Section 1. I'm not a soothsayer, but it's more fun to be specific than vague, even when I'm wrong. I usually have a couple doozies per year (either overrating or underrating guys), but that's bound to happen with something like this.
DeleteI second this. It's more interesting, at the very least, for you to make specific predictions than not. No one is ever going to be right all the time, but your aggregate track record is pretty good...outside of the QB position ;)
DeleteIn case anyone (TTB or readers) is still monitoring this thread, why does Gardner have such poor throwing technique? He still often seems to "shot put" the ball with an awkward motion.
ReplyDeleteI'd guess that he never played little league or, at a higher level, learned how to throw when he was a kid. Lots of guys off the street (with 5% of his athleticism) could throw a better spiral.
Well, he probably didn't have the best of coaching situations in high school at Inkster, and since then, he's been the backup QB and getting limited reps. Mechanically, he should be better than he is right now...but Denard Robinson doesn't have good mechanics, either, and he's a senior, two-year starter. Tim Tebow's in the NFL and still doesn't have great mechanics. It happens sometimes.
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