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| I like this high school picture of William Campbell too much not to post it. |
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 308 lbs.
High school: Detroit (MI) Cass Tech
Position: Defensive tackle
Class: Senior
Jersey number: #73
Last year: I ranked Campbell #15 and said he would start at 3-tech DT with 40 tackles and 3 sacks. He had 14 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 pass breakup, and 1 fumble recovery.
Okay, I was a little bit off with my prediction that Campbell would start, that he would be a 3-tech, and that he would make 40 tackles. In fact, he didn't start, played mostly 1-tech, and made just 14 tackles. My hopes were dashed. He was the primary backup to the now departed Mike Martin, and those aren't bad statistics for a backup nose tackle; when Martin was a backup, he made 20 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks. But Martin was a freshman, and Campbell was a junior. I expected more. I still don't really agree with the deployment of Campbell, who would be tough to block for just about any offensive guard one-on-one. As a nose tackle who struggles to stay low, he's typically playing against centers (who are shorter and almost always use good leverage) and guards (who are sometimes shorter and often use good leverage). There were plays last season when Campbell destroyed single blocks, and there were plays where he got washed out of the action by double-teams. I guess the coaches thought they would rather start Will Heininger than have Quinton Washington or Richard Ash be rotation players, so that's what happened.
Now three-fourths of last year's starting defensive line has graduated (Martin, Heininger, and Ryan Van Bergen), and Campbell has to start at nose tackle. There's really no other option. He has reportedly taken to his newfound leadership role and slimmed down to 308 lbs. after playing earlier in his career at 340 or 350. It's now or never for the former 5-star recruit. The conditioning seems to be in place, but it remains to be seen whether he has the desire and focus to stay low every single play. One of Martin's best traits was his ability to go hard on almost every play, and he was consistently a disruptive force in the middle of the line because of it. Ondre Pipkins was expected to be one of Campbell's backups - if not the primary one - but a recent injury might temporarily keep Pipkins from playing. That leaves Richard Ash, Quinton Washington, and Kenny Wilkins to vie for playing time on the nose, with Ash the likely winner of that battling trio. Campbell should see a sizable jump in his production, but I think the defense overall is going to dip a little bit because of the loss of Martin and, to a lesser extent, Van Bergen.
Prediction: Starting nose tackle; 35 tackles, 3.5 sacks
Poll results: Campbell won 57% of the vote for the #7 spot.
Didn't the staff start working him in at the 3-tech?
ReplyDeleteYeah, practice reports in the past couple days have stated that. I still think he'll start at NT, but they'll move him around in certain situations.
DeleteFrom what I understand, putting him at the 3 was a situational type thing, for getting their biggest guys up front. Perhaps for goal-line and 3rd or 4th and 1 type downs. I don't think they're contemplating making him a permanent 3 tech, but I've been wrong before.
DeleteIf Pipkins is ready to play right away I'd love to see Campbell at the 3 and Pipkins at the 1. Thats a good 650lbs in middle of the D. Then Black could be used as more of a situational pass rushing 3 tech.
DeleteThat still puts you in the same situation as last year - with Ash and Washington having to play- because you need to rotate D-linemen. It seems like the coaches don't trust those two, so you could see a 3-man rotation at NT/DT with Campbell sliding between NT and 3-tech, depending on who is beside him - Pipkins or Black. Ideally though, someone else would emerge, we'd have a 4-man rotation and everyone could just stick to one spot. I think Wormley going down really hurts the team because he was one of the leading contenders to be that 4th interior linemen.'
DeleteI still think Brink may emerge as a rotational player on the interior. Even though he is small, the coaches might prefer him to Ash or Washington.
I think it's a very bad idea to start a true freshman at nose tackle.
DeleteAny news on how Ash or others are doing from said practice reports?
ReplyDeleteAsh has looked okay, and they like Pipkins. Otherwise, the DT position is pretty thin. It doesn't sound like the coaches are too high on Washington and Wilkins at this point.
DeleteThanks for the reply. So, is it safe to say we have two serviceable backups behind BWC. I know it's wishful thinking till we actually see them play. I'm hoping with a solid rotation that will help with dline performance.
DeleteI think the backup nose tackles will be solid, as long as they can be used as backups and not starters.
DeleteThis is my greatest concern regarding UM's potential for success this season: the DL. It is nearly impossible to have a good defense if you don't have a good DL and I just can't envision UM's DL being any better than mediocre this season. I fear that teams will be able to just run on the defense with impunity and grind out a lot of long drives.
ReplyDeleteI reaaaalllly hope that I am wrong, but even with THREE DL COACHES!!!!!! (registered meme of MGoBlog), I just can't get excited about the 2012 DL.
I'm concerned about the defensive line, too. I will say that I'm confident in the coaches' coaching and recruiting abilities. While I'm not too enamored with the veteran talent there, I will say that they turned Will Heininger (who was very physically limited) into an average DT, and they got great production from Martin and Van Bergen. We might take a step back there, but if Roh can approximate Ryan Van Bergen at SDE and Campbell can at least be adequate inside, the back seven return. Hopefully the coaches can get Campbell's motor going...
DeleteIn fairness to Heininger he played capably as a sophomore backup to Graham at DE. Then he got hurt for all of 2011 (part of why that D sucked so bad), bulked up, and played well as a senior in a 2-down role. That's a pretty standard career arc, other than the fact that he was a walk-on. He wasn't a star, but he also wasn't your typical student body walk-on.
DeleteMartin was a beast either way and Heininger was probably a serviceable guy either way, but its hard to dispute that RVB took his game up a notch with the new staff. The bottom line is that they put these guys in a position to succeed and did what they could.
That said - Wilkins, Ash, and Washington came with considerable recruiting hype and have done nothing. This coaching staff is good, but they're not miracle workers.
That picture is exactly the issue with the summer camp and recruit hype industry that has evolved. "Boy, he sure dominates at the camp circuit" (in unrealistic scenarios and just talking to recruit analysts). We gotta move him up a star or two because of his camp performance.... blah blah blah. Seriously hoping BWC comes out of his shell once and for all this year. Would love to see him get a shot at the pros.
ReplyDeleteYou're a little off base considering that Campbell dominated every facet of high school competition including games.
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DeleteDo you think we will employ more stunting and up the gut blitzing to try and offset some of our deficiencies in this area of our line? I can see Bama doing to us what we used to be known for doing of imposing their will on the opposition between the tackles and us being out of gas in the 4th Qtr. I'm just thinking we will try and scheme smarter than go in knowing we don't match up but try and man up anyway... How do you think the coaches will handle this mismatch?
ReplyDeleteThanks,
IowaBlue
Yes, I do. Demens didn't blitz much last year, but I expect you'll see some of that from him and Morgan. Hawthorne is a good run blitzer, too. I think you can blitz more once you get some experience. Since all the starters return, you can start to throw some new things at an offense rather than just wanting the guys to run their base defense well. I also think you'll see some games being played with Black and the WILL, because there will have to be some slanting to keep the OG off balance. Black is too small to just play straight-up the entire game. So you might see Black and Beyer slanting inside and giving the WILL outside contain responsibilities, things like that.
DeleteInteresting comments Thunder. Is there a difference between a good run-blitzer and a good pass-blitzer? The concept of run-blitz is still fuzzy to me. (I get the you send the LB into the backfield at the RB instead of the QB, but beyond that...)
DeleteWell, I don't think Hawthorne has blitzed the pass very often. Guys can be good at both, but run blitzing (blitzing on running downs) is a little different because he has to read the play on the run and chase/stuff the ball carrier. Pass blitzing (blitzing on passing downs) requires players to be smart about whether they hit the QB late, come in under control so they don't whiff on a scrambling QB, etc.
DeleteThat makes sense, sounds like you have to be a little more cautious with run blitzes to not overrun the play. I suspect the differences get marginalized when you're talking about dual-threat QBs, which most of our conference opponents will be.
DeletePipkins is apparently practicing again. I think he might get some snaps against Alabama.
ReplyDeleteI'm shocked you don't have Campbell in the top 5. I'd put him at #2 behind Lewan. Hoke sounds very confident in him and he's the only guy that is proven along the interior DL. Yeah, he hasn't been great so far and struggled at times against double teams, but if he is unavailable or unproductive this team is in serious trouble. There just aren't that many good options at 1-tech and 3-tech, especially with Wormley unavailable. It's already a bit of stretch to put Black in as a starter, but without Campbell he'd have to play a bigger role and disappointments like Washington and Ash would have to play heavy minutes. IMO, Campbell absolutely HAS to be a good player for this defense to be good. He won't be Mike Martin, but he has to play at least half of downs and hold up against the run against the better teams on the schedule.
ReplyDeleteI have Campbell at #12 myself. So far he's only shown himself only to be an ok backup. The 11 players I have in front of him (D Robinson, Lewan, Schofield, Barnum, Omameh, Roh, Toussaint, Demens, Kovacs, T Gordon, Roundtree) are all proven above-average starters. It's plausible that Campbell really blows up this year in which case a top-5 ranking would be justified, but it my opinion it's equally plausible that he could be little or no better than Pipkins, in which case he would probably come out around #20.
DeleteWell, you kind of answered your own question. Campbell hasn't been very good, and I don't see significant reasons to assume he'll make a quantum leap from decent backup to awesome starter. If he plays like he has been, then the drop-off from Campbell to Pipkins/Ash/Washington won't be that large. Remember, I had Martin #1 last year, partly because Campbell and the other guys were unproven or lacked talent. Now those other backups are a little older (or more talented, in the case of Pipkins), and the starter isn't quite as good. So I can't really justify putting him up at #2.
DeleteYou're saying that he should be #2 because a nose tackle can dictate the game. But if that's how important a nose tackle is, then he would be #2 every year. To me, it fluctuates depending on who's playing the position(s).
@Anon
DeleteI get and agree with the doubts about Campbell's ability, but the fact is this team needs Campbell AND Pipkins. If either one doesn't produce at the level we hope they can, this team is in trouble. I like Black, but he's not going to survive playing the snaps that RVB or Martin played. We need 3 or 4 interior linemen to rotate in. If Campbell isn't one of them we're in trouble.
Other than the OTs, most of the other guys you mentioned have viable backups that can step in if they go down...well, maybe not Barnum, IDK. I just don't see a guy like Burzynski or Jerald Robinson or Devin Gardner being a huge liability if they're forced into action. Not the kind that makes us lose a game we'd otherwise win. However, I could see Washington getting consistently blown off the ball against a half-decent running attack. That sort of thing could cost us a game like Iowa or even Air Force, in a worst case scenario.
@Thunder
DeleteI'm not at all arguing NT should be #2 every year. But if you don't have a reliable backup at an important position like that, it's really important the starter play well. While I don't think that Campbell will be anywhere near as good as Martin, I think the gap between Martin-Campbell last year is probably similar to the gap between Campbell-Ash/Washington this year.
If there was a good starter at 3-tech beside him, I'd feel differently. Then you'd have a clear situation where you just plug in Pipkins for Campbell and the consequences there wouldn't be terrible. But I see Pipkins as the 3rd man in the interior DL rotation - an important role not unlike Courtney Avery's -- you're going to play a lot. So losing Campbell doesn't just mean more Pipkins, it means Washington/Ash/Wilkins are going to have to play a lot of snaps -- I think that's bad news.
Hoke seems very confident in Campbell, and the offseason reports sound like everything you'd want to hear. Like you said, he showed that he has the ability to be very good at times. So we have a talented guy who is somewhat proven (at least as a backup) stepping into a more important role. That's how it's supposed to go. I think it's reasonable to expect him to be a high caliber player, even though he hasn't done that yet. It's not about being 'an awesome starter' its about being a starter who is solid and reliable. Otherwise, the opposition can just run it up the gut till the defense overreacts and then punish them outside.
Magnus is definitely right that we'll see a ton of slants and blitzes. As small as this defense would seem to be, it pretty much has to be a spill and swarm defense. That VT defense we played against in the Sugar Bowl made it more than evident that that's a viable strategy for a top notch defense.
DeleteIF you have the athletes, that is. I don't see any elite talent on this defense, so I'm not sure what kind of results we can expect. This team was already very slanty/zone blitz-ish last season, so they're practiced at what they'll do. As long as they can be okay against the run, Mattison won't have to go to Bear looks that really open up the secondary. We were like 40th in Yds/play last year. That sounds about right.
...As a side note, the more I look at this roster the more I realize how far away Rich Rod really was. The attrition he enabled/allowed/perpetuated has Hoke under the gun until Shane Morris is at least a sophomore. That shit is depressing and makes me wonder how I could have labored in the delusion that RR was going to have everything figured out right quick.
Yo yo
ReplyDelete