Rush Offense vs. Illinois Rush Defense
Michigan has the #14 rushing offense in the country, while the Illini have the #15 rushing defense in the country. It's strength against strength, although Michigan's running game has shown some holes. Last week against Iowa, Michigan averaged only 3.43 yards per carry, and their best running back - Fitzgerald Toussaint - suffered a shoulder injury that knocked him out of last week's game. If Toussain't can't play this week and if quarterback Denard Robinson struggles once again to run the ball, this might be an ugly week offensively.
Pass Offense vs. Illinois Pass Defense
I'm always squeamish when it comes to Robinson throwing the ball, and this week will be no different. The Illini are the #8 pass defense and the #19 pass efficiency defense, meaning they're pretty solid. They average over 3 sacks a game, and defensive tackle Whitney Mercilus leads the nation with 11.5 of them on his own. While they have only made 8 interceptions on the season, defenses who get in Robinson's face often cause him to make bad decisions (to the tune of 12 picks this year, 4th-worst in the country). Robinson has thrown at least one interception in 7 out of 9 games, so it's a pretty safe guess that he'll hit the wrong colored jersey at least once in this game, too.
Rush Defense vs. Illinois Rush Offense
Illinois doesn't have one particularly strong runner this year, but they are #26 in rushing yardage and have four players who are averaging 40+ yards per game, including quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase. Senior running back Jason Ford has a combined 22 carries for 219 yards in the last two seasons against the Wolverines, so he's surely not lacking in confidence. Meanwhile, Michigan has improved to #58 in rushing defense this season, but they haven't really shut down any good runners yet this season. The best running backs on the schedule - San Diego State's Ronnie Hillman, MSU's Edwin Baker, and Iowa's Marcus Coker - have all averaged 4.6 yards a carry or better. Ford has turned on the jets over the last three weeks with 40 carries for 215 yards (5.4 yards per attempt), so that bodes well for Illinois.
Pass Defense vs. Illinois Pass Offense
Michigan is #26 against the pass this season, and Illinois is #84 in pass offense. Scheelhaase completes 65% of his passes and has thrown only 5 interceptions, so he's relatively safe with the ball but doesn't consistently produce a ton of big plays through the air. Wide receiver A.J. Jenkins is a major threat on the outside, however, with 68 receptions for 1,030 yards and 7 of those touchdowns. Whether Scheelhaase-to-Jenkins is successful depends on whether Michigan shows up defensively or not. Jenkins has had his best games against the likes of Arkansas State, Northwestern, and Indiana, while he hasn't gone over 100 yards or scored a touchdown in the last three weeks against Ohio State, Purdue, and Penn State. Hopefully Michigan sticks Blake Countess on Jenkins and lets the freshman do his thing.
Predictions
- Denard Robinson takes 3 sacks and throws 2 interceptions
- Nobody goes over 100 yards rushing or receiving for Illinois
- Roy Roundtree catches a 75-yard pass
- Michigan 28, Illinois 24
First, re: the Illinois cheerleader, I am going to steal a meme from MGoBlog because "I be like dang!"
ReplyDeleteSecond, I find your prediction for UM to win somewhat at odds with your overall breakdown. My interpretation of your breakdown was:
UM rush O vs. ILL rush D -- advantage ILL
UM pass O vs. ILL pass D -- advantage ILL
ILL rush O vs. UM rush D -- advantage ILL
ILL pass O vs. UM pass D -- advantage UM/push
Add in the fact that the game is at Illinois and I have to say I am surprised to see you pick UM to win this game. I know I am not.
Please, no Mgoblog memes here. This site works best as an Mgoblog-free zone (in just one dude's anonymous opinion).
ReplyDeleteAside from that, I am also having a difficult time udnerstanding how Thunder's prediction follows from the analysis. Also, I think it will be another difficult, long offseason if UM loses this game - I just don't see how they can recover and beat Nebraska or OSU. I fear a loss here will be emotionally charged and potentially lead to what we will later regard as another second-half implosion (Purdue does not count). What are your thoughts? I know we wont really know until its all said and done, but do you think that winning this game is as important as I described?
Was that Roundtree prediction just for old Illinois times' sake?
ReplyDelete@ Anonymous 8:38 a.m.
ReplyDeleteThe thing about Illinois is that they've played all their good games against bad competition. They barely beat Arizona State, but they've lost three in a row to Big Ten teams. They've put up good numbers (sacks, overall defense, rushing, etc.), but it's a little unclear how they'll do against a decent team like the Wolverines. Zook seems to have a tendency to fall off toward the second half of the season (as did Rodriguez), so we'll see what happens. I think it will be a squeaker.
@ David 12:00 p.m.
ReplyDeleteWell, Roundtree has had a 75-yarder in the past two seasons...so I figured, why not?
I realize you don't like him as a QB because he doesn't fit the prostyle mold but man...your Denard hate is out of control. Vincesmithian, almost. 3 sacks? There is no chance in hell he takes 3 sacks, let alone 3 sacks and 2 picks.
ReplyDeleteAnd if the above happens, Michigan's not going to win the game. This offense isn't explosive enough anymore to surrender so much on offense.
My prediction for the rest of the season is losses the next 2 weeks followed by the things-are-different-now Hoke-win against Ohio State. Hope I'm wrong on the first 2.
Seems like Hoke has the same tendency as Rodriguez and Zook so far.
ReplyDeleteI get the feeling that Michigan's offense is pretty much in the tank. I will be mildly surprised if they pull this one out. Iowa did not even pressure Denard and he still looked uncomfortable last week, not to mention hurt. I think UM needs Scheelhaas to have a bad game to win and if Denard takes 3 sacks and throws 2 picks (which is a reasonable prediction), it's going to be an ugly day.
ReplyDelete@ Lankownia 12:53 p.m.
ReplyDeleteI don't dislike Denard, and I certainly don't dislike him because he "doesn't fit the prostyle mold."
No matter how good at running the ball he, you're not getting it:
He's BAD at throwing the ball. He's completing 52% of his passes and he's thrown the 4th-most interceptions in the NCAA. That's bad. It has nothing to do with like/dislike. He's not good at it. It's a fact, and a frustrating one.