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Rush Offense vs. Ohio State Rush Defense
The Buckeyes are #42 in the country in rushing defense, giving up just over 130 yards/game. Michigan is #12 in the country in rushing offense, gaining just over 230 yards/game. Leading tackler Andrew Sweat is questionable for Saturday with an injury, so that means he'll likely play . . . but his effectiveness might be hampered a little bit. Running back Fitzgerald Toussaint is averaging almost 6.0 yards/carry in his last four games and has gone over 130 yards in three of those games. Michigan's offensive line has not been stellar this season, but the team has been productive.
Advantage: Michigan
Pass Offense vs. Ohio State Pass Defense
The Wolverines are #91 in passing offense with just under 190 yards/game and quarterback Denard Robinson has thrown 14 interceptions on the season. Meanwhile, Ohio State is #16 in passing defense, giving up almost 188 yards/game. Defensive backs Orhrian Johnson and Bradley Roby each have three interceptions on the season. Robinson has a tendency to throw balls into double coverage and has thrown at least one interception in nine out of the last ten games; nearly 6.4% of his passes fall into opponents' hands, the highest rate in the country. His reads in the passing game have improved slightly in the last few weeks as offensive coordinator Al Borges has seemingly figured out what Robinson can and cannot do, but it will be an adventure. Michigan's receivers had better be ready to play physically, because they will be challenged by an always aggressive defensive backfield.
Advantage: Ohio State
Rush Defense vs. Ohio State Rush Offense
Ohio State is #27 in overall rushing yardage, but that's largely because they have the 9th-most rushing attempts in the country; the Buckeyes run the ball 45 times a game. Three players - quarterback Braxton Miller and running backs Carlos Hyde and Dan Herron - have more than 500 yards rushing on the season. As a team they average only 4.47 yards/carry (compared to 5.31 for Michigan), but the return of Herron has boosted the running game a bit. Meanwhile, Michigan has jumped from #95 in rushing defense (2010) to #40 this season. Michigan defensive linemen Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen have been spectacular the past couple weeks and should continue wreaking havoc on Saturday.
Advantage: Michigan
Pass Defense vs. Ohio State Pass Offense
Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller might be the worst passer in the Big Ten and has completed only 53 out of 109 passes. The Buckeyes know he can't throw very well (yet) and they do their best to protect him through conservative playcalling. He has thrown only three interceptions on the season, but he averages only just over 10 attempts/game. Miller is a dangerous runner and will scramble for yards when Martin, Van Bergen, and others flush him from the pocket, but this game will be won or lost on the ground. Tight end Jake Stoneburner has only 13 receptions on the season . . . but 7 of them have been for touchdowns.
Advantage: Michigan
Player notes
- Players with Michigan offers include OT Mike Adams, CB Dionte Allen, DT Darryl Baldwin (3 tackles, 1 sack), DT Adam Bellamy (19 tackles, 1 sack), RB Jaamal Berry (3 carries, 7 yards), DT Michael Bennett (15 tackles, 3 sacks), C Michael Brewster, WR Corey Brown (12 receptions, 129 yards), CB Corey Brown (3 tackles), CB Christian Bryant (59 tackles, 8 pass breakups), DE Melvin Fellows, DT Garrett Goebel (30 tackles, 1 sack), LB Curtis Grant (1 tackle), CB Doran Grant (5 tackles), S Chad Hagan (2 tackles), DT Joel Hale (3 tackles), RB Jordan Hall (451 yards from scrimmage, 4 touchdowns), OT Marcus Hall, DT Johnathan Hankins (61 tackles, 3 sacks), RB Dan Herron (559 yards, 2 touchdowns), TE Jeff Heuerman, LB Scott McVey, QB Braxton Miller (762 passing yards, 595 rushing yards, 15 touchdowns), DE Steve Miller (1 tackle), OT Andrew Norwell, LB Ryan Shazier, OT J.B. Shugarts, WR Devin Smith, RB Rod Smith (116 yards, 1 touchdown), TE Jake Stoneburner (13 catches, 157 yards, 7 touchdowns), LB Andrew Sweat (68 tackles), S Ron Tanner, TE Nick Vannett
- Starting fullback Zach Boren is supposedly the reason Justin Boren transferred from Michigan. The story goes that Lloyd Carr promised to offer a scholarship to Zach, but when Carr retired, Rich Rodriguez didn't uphold Carr's promise . . . because Rodriguez doesn't give scholarships to fullbacks straight out of high school; Rodriguez prefers to get them through the walk-on program. This upset Justin and his family and prompted to "family values" quote on his way out the door.
Predictions
- Michigan scraps the vast majority of pro-sets to run a spread offense
- Denard Robinson throws the ball 16 times or less in an effort to protect the ball
- Devin Gardner makes another appearance in a trick-play mode
- Mike Martin destroys OSU center Mike Brewster and solidifies David Molk as the All-Big Ten center
- Michigan 28, Ohio State 20
From your fingertips to God's ear.
ReplyDeleteSomehow, I've yet to hear that story about Boren - makes sense though.
ReplyDeleteEven in a preview post you manage to get a jab of sorts in on Denard. Part of the reason he looks better the last few weeks is familiarity with the system - it's not just Borges who has the capacity to learn (see Denard from '09 to '10).
I haven't heard anyone else say this, so I'm going to say it: Martin and Van Bergen are going to struggle. They have indeed looked awesome the last 3 weeks, but each of those opponents has had issues with depth, talent, and/or experience along the interior line. Martin's not going to dominate an NFL-caliber player like Brewster, he'll be fortunate to win the one-on-one battle with him. Adams and Shugarts won't need any assistance on the edges, so there will be plenty of help provided on our DL from the supporting cast. Rude awakening time for the DL -- it's going to be up to Morgan and Demens to make plays and be responsible...well, more likely, Kovacs, Gordon and Woolfolk - those guys have to prevent OSU from breaking long ones.
Michigan's proven good enough to stop one-dimensional attacks. But Miller's also shown he can make plays on occasion. OSU's had a rough season, but the talent remains there at TE, WR, etc. Those guys can get open and Miller CAN find them. The issue with him is consistency, but nothing precludes him from having a bid game.
I think there's a strong possibility that Michigan is over-confident right now. I think they're in for a level of talent on offense that they haven't seen Notre Dame. On defense, this is an MSU-caliber opponent.
I'm not going to predict a loss. I think our coaching is better, our experience is superior at key positions, and we have home-field advantage. But I think this game is a lot closer to 50-50 than the 7 point line would indicate. A special teams TD here, a defensive TD there - the balance could shift very quickly and the monkey on Michigan's back could start weighing on the minds of everyone. The pressure is clearly on Michigan here, as OSU really has nothing to lose.
What I hope happens is that Miller doesn't make big plays. I hope Ryan, Kovacs, Demens, etc keep him contained in space and Mattison's play calls keep the rest of the run game locked down.
The key to the game is Denard limiting turnovers and Michigan moving the ball on the ground (I know, duh) - but it's something they failed miserably at against MSU. Hopefully a lack of pro-style is the cure for those woes, but last year's OSU team shut down an at-least-as-good spread offense pretty easily.
For the first time in years - I see no circumstance where Ohio State wins in a blowout. That's good. But anything else is still on the table.
Michigan 20 Ohio State 19
I agree with Lank that this game is going to be much closer than people are expecting. Our team has struggled when matched with O and D lines comparable to our own. I think we will lose the fight between the OSU OL and UM DL line, but I also think Miller's inexperience will put us overall on top. We have just enough talent at linebacker and in the backfield that we will be able to exploit his inexperience to enough advantage to come out on top. This is, of course, taking for granted that we have an average day on offense. Which is questionable, but I think we will do just average. But this game will rest on our ability to take advantage of Miller's weaknesses.
ReplyDeleteI have a pretty good feeling about this game. It's been probably 10 years since the last time I had any confidence going into it. OSU has brought so-so offenses into this game over the years, but I cannot remember an OSU defense that was this mediocre. They still have talent of course, but if UM has a decent game rushing, OSU will finish as a middle-of-the-pack Big 10 defense. This has to be "Tressel's" worst defense. Getting 4-5 yards a pop in the running game should not be difficult unless they completely stack the box, which is probably what they'll do. If Denard is feeling confident and does not get careless, this should not be that close of a game. I'm guessing 24-14 UM.
ReplyDeleteLank,
ReplyDeleteThis preview is far beyond conservative. It's downright pessimistic. I think you totally overestimate OSU's competency, especially on O-line.
Maybe it's the Homer in me, but I don't see the game being this close. I think THEosu's defense gets some stops, but I also think Michigan hits in the 30's.
ReplyDeleteI also think THEosu is going to have more 3 and out's than any other game this season. Michigan's defense has gotten better as the season wears on and the seniors are playing for more than we can imagine. The seniors are playing to end the schools losing streak, they want to graduate with a win against ohio, they are playing for a BCS bid (most likely) and it's their last game in the Big House. THEosu is SO one dimensional it's scary. 118th in pass offense. If Michigan can stop the run, and they will, THEosu is in for a LONG day.
Michigan 32 THEosu 13
@lankownia
ReplyDeleteIf Michigan plays like they did against Nebraska, this will be a blowout. Nebraska is a better team than ohio. Ohio's offensive line is probably better than Nebraska's but taylor Martinez is a better QB than Braxton Miller, due to experience. I honestly think if we can stack the box and play solid coverage on Posey, this game is a lock. Ohio has no other real threat at WR, so double coverage on posey takes the passing game away from ohio. Michigan did a stellar job containing Martinez (who's faster than Miller) and we held Burkhead to 36 yards (averages over 100 a game).
Michigan by two scores.
ReplyDeleteLankownia's opinion matters so little.
Hoke is about 30,000 votes out of first place on coachoftheyear.com everyone please vote because what he has done at UM this year deserves recognition. Remember you can vote everyday until December 3rd!
ReplyDeleteI don't know Lank. In the never ending struggle to provide a thoughtful counterpoint you do raise some interesting ideas, but Miller only throws 10 times a game. Most of those throws are in the redzone just so they don't run it 4 straight times too. In fact I'm not sure he's thrown a touchdown to anyone other than his tight end. I think with the versatile rush attack that they have they can find a way to get into the end zone but Michigans D was the #1 red zone defense in the country before Nebraska week, and I'm guessing they still are. The buckeye offense is already one dimensional. The only dimension remaining is the type of offense Mattison is hell bent on neutralizing. Also this is the 3rd consecutive mobile quarterback/rushing team in a row we're facing, and each time the qb's throwing ability has gotten worse. We've also faced progressively tougher defenses since Iowa and have only gotten better on offense week to week.
ReplyDeleteYou won't find any team in the country more revved up for a game than Michigan for Ohio this year. Hokes got these kids foaming at the mouth, they're gonna punish the buckeyes. Illinois held Ohio to 17 with their impressive pass rushing, Sparty held them to 7 but that was the 2nd or 3rd game Miller started, PSU held them to 14 last week in Columbus. I think we'll do the same or better and give ohio anywhere between 0-14 points. On offense even Indiana put up 20 on the Buckeyes. My best guess is we'll wear them down by playing some MANBALL and the score will start to get away from them by mid 3rd quarter like against Nebraska. I'd favor us to get 30 even with a few turnovers today.
It should be noted that I am a full blown Michigan slappy and I had to restrain myself and not predict a 400-3 score.
Hope you all are right about OSU, I just think they're going to give us their best and their overall team talent can't be denied. The cliche about 'freshman not being freshman anymore' this late in the year is what concerns me about Miller. He has a good performance in him...I do hope it's not this week.
ReplyDelete@Michael
Manball isn't the answer, of that much I feel confident. We're just not very good at it and they have a strong defense, even if it's a step back from the last few years... Need to play to our strengths.
Go Blue!
Where's all of this love for the Ohio State OL coming from? Buckeyes allowed 36 sacks, behind only Pitt, Miami (NTM), Hawai'i and Akron and tied with Louisville and UConn. 42nd in yards per carry. Brewster hasn't been all that great this year and Adams has been good, but not great. Shugarts is guaranteed a false start and Norwell is JAG.
ReplyDelete