NFL Draft results: Michigan

Denard Robinson dropped to the fifth round

Here's a look at the NFL Draft-related movement for Michigan players over the last 24 hours.  A couple Wolverines were drafted, and several more have been signed as free agents.

• Offensive guard Ricky Barnum signed as an undrafted free agent with the Washington Redskins
• Defensive tackle William Campbell was chosen in the 6th round (#178 overall) by the New York Jets, who plan to play him at offensive guard
• Linebacker Kenny Demens signed as an undrafted free agent with the Arizona Cardinals
• Linebacker Brandin Hawthorne signed as an undrafted free agent with the St. Louis rams
• Safety Jordan Kovacs signed as an undrafted free agent with the Miami Dolphins
• Offensive center/guard Elliott Mealer signed as an undrafted free agent with the New Orleans Saints
• Offensive guard Patrick Omameh signed as an undrafted free agent with the San Francisco 49ers
• Quarterback Denard Robinson was chosen in the 5th round (#135 overall) by the Jacksonville Jaguars, who plan to play him at running back, slot receiver, and kick returner
• Defensive end Craig Roh signed as an undrafted free agent with the Carolina Panthers
• Wide receiver Roy Roundtree signed as an undrafted free agent with the Cincinnati Bengals

Still unsigned are cornerback J.T. Floyd, tight end Brandon Moore, and running back Vincent Smith.

2013 NFL Draft Preview: Michigan

Denard Robinson

Right here is the one . . . the only . . . exhibition of my non-expert opinion on where Michigan's players will end up in (or out) of the NFL Draft.

Denard Robinson, QB/WR/RB
Robinson has some questions about what position(s) he'll be able to play in the NFL.  It's pretty clear that he won't be a full-time quarterback (although certain packages or plays wouldn't be out of the question), but he might lack the hands and route running skills to be a wide receiver or the bulk to be a running back.  My guess is that he will carve out a career somewhat like that of the Cleveland Browns' Josh Cribbs, a guy who isn't a star but contributes as a receiver, runner, and kickoff returner.
Best guess: 2nd round, #59 overall to New England Patriots

William Campbell, DT
Campbell measured in at 6'5", 311 lbs., ran a 5.15 forty, and did 35 reps on the bench press at Michigan's pro day.  He was not very productive at Michigan and struggled to win a starting role, but he is very large and shows impressive power when he decides to stay low and play hard.  There's a chance that Robinson will be the only player drafted out of Michigan, but if there are others, the best bet appears to be Campbell for the next highest draft slot.  He would fit best as a 3-technique in a 4-3 defense, in my opinion.
Best guess: 6th round, #188 overall to Chicago Bears

Jordan Kovacs, S
The 5'11", 205 lb. Kovacs was highly productive as a tackler at Michigan, although his pass coverage leaves something to be desired.  He ran a 4.63 at Michigan's pro day and showed impressive leaping ability with a 35" vertical, but that athleticism doesn't really show itself on the field.  Kovacs played strong safety at Michigan, and that's likely where he would fit best in the NFL - as an in-the-box safety who doesn't have to worry too much about deep coverage.  He could also be productive on special teams coverage.
Best guess: 7th round, #247 overall to Baltimore Ravens

Craig Roh, DE
Roh measured at 6'4", 271 lbs. at Michigan's pro day and ran the forty in 4.91; somewhat disappointingly, he only put up 20 reps of 225 lbs. on the bench press.  He changes direction fairly well for a strongside end, but he lacks pass rush moves beyond the occasional bull rush.  Added weight seems to have slowed him down throughout his career, so he may not be able to bulk up into a 3-4 defensive end; his best bet might be to try to make it as a slightly undersized strongside end in a 4-3.
Best guess: Undrafted

Patrick Omameh, OG
Omameh is a 6'4", 303 lb. prospect who was a four-year starter at Michigan, but he only put up 22 reps at Michigan's pro day.  He's not particularly adept at pulling, but he has pretty good lateral movement and can stay low.  If he can increase his strength and add a little bit of weight, I think Omameh can latch on as a backup somewhere, perhaps in a zone running scheme like Houston's.
Best guess: Undrafted

Kenny Demens, LB
Demens stands 6'1" and 245 lbs. with a 4.82 forty and 26 reps on the bench press; he also had a 33.5" vertical and a 4.54 shuttle time.  He's not particularly quick at diagnosing plays, but he is a thumping hitter with surprisingly good coverage skills.  Demens didn't make enough plays at Michigan to really stand out, but he could earn a shot as a middle linebacker in a 4-3; his body and athleticism also make him seem like perhaps an inside linebacker in a 3-4, but his lack of quick diagnoses make that a questionable proposition because he would have to shed linemen.
Best guess: Undrafted

Roy Roundtree, WR
Roundtree is a 6'1", 178 lb. receiver prospect who ran a 4.58 forty at Michigan's pro day, where he also put up just 10 reps on the bench.  That forty time isn't very impressive, but he was deceptively quick at Michigan, breaking off several 70+ yard receptions throughout his career.  He has struggled to add weight at any point in his college career, and NFL defensive backs will probably be able to push him around pretty easily.  He could perhaps help out as a slot receiver for someone, but he's not fast enough or physical enough to work on the outside, in my opinion.
Best guess: Undrafted

J.T. Floyd, CB
Floyd is a 5'10", 190 lb. defensive back who put up less than stellar numbers at Michigan's pro day - a 4.79 forty and 5 reps on the bench press.  It's no secret that I have never been impressed with Floyd as a football player, so I won't beat around the bush: I don't think he has a shot at getting drafted, and his best chance would be to hook on with a team that runs a Tampa Cover Two where he can sit in the flat on a lot of plays.
Best guess: Undrafted

Ricky Barnum, OG
Barnum is a 6'2", 297 lb. interior lineman who earned good reviews for his ability to get out and run, but he ran just a 5.53 forty at Michigan's pro day; he did, however, put up a respectable 25 reps on the bench press.  He may have been best suited for the zone running offense that Rich Rodriguez employed, but most of his playing time was earned in 2011 and 2012, when he was expected to be a powerful, drive-blocking guard.  He struggled to get much movement and does not appear likely to get drafted, but perhaps a zone running team will give him a shot.
Best guess: Undrafted

Brandin Hawthorne, LB
Hawthorne is a 6'0", 220 lb. prospect who benched 225 lbs. an impressive 27 times at Michigan's pro day.  He was an occasional starter at Michigan, but fell behind freshmen at weakside linebacker in each of his last two seasons.  The chances of him making it in the NFL are slim, but if he does, it will probably be as a weakside linebacker in a 4-3 and/or a special teamer.
Best guess: Undrafted

Vincent Smith, RB
Smith is a 5'6", 172 lb. player who ran a 4.85 at Michigan's pro day in March, although he did a little better with a 4.31 shuttle time; he also had a 30" vertical and did 14 reps on the bench.  He earned a starting job as a feature back in 2010, but that role dissipated when Brady Hoke was hired; since the beginning of 2011, he was mostly a pass protector and third down back.  Without the speed to make big plays in the NFL as a third down back or returner, Smith might get just a cursory glance by a few NFL teams.
Best guess: Undrafted

Elliott Mealer, OG
Mealer, at 6'4" and 321 lbs., ran just as fast (5.54 seconds) as Barnum, despite being two inches taller and 24 lbs. heavier.  Mealer also put up 29 repetitions on the bench, which is a good number.  He played center in 2012, but he seemed to struggle getting off the ball; however, I do have to say that his snaps themselves were excellent.  He also had some mental gaffes, but that was perhaps in part due to playing mostly tackle and guard early in his career before becoming the full-time center.  If Mealer is able to latch on in the NFL, I think it will be as a right guard for a team that likes to run the ball.
Best guess: Undrafted

OTHERS EXPECTED TO GO UNDRAFTED:
Mike Kwiatkowski, TE
Brandon Moore, TE

Kenny Demens, #25

Kenny Demens

HIGH SCHOOL
Demens was a part of Michigan's class of 2008, committing in September 2007 before Lloyd Carr retired.  He picked Michigan over offers from Iowa, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin, among others.  He attended Detroit (MI) Country Day with backfield mate Jonas Gray, who ended up at Notre Dame; Demens doubled as a fullback and linebacker for Country Day, and I had the experience of watching both of them play. Not knowing who they were, I said, "Wow, these guys are going to be playing Division I ball next year."  They turned out to be sophomores at the time.  Demens closed the 2008 recruiting cycle as a Rivals 4-star, the #23 outside linebacker, and the #8 player in the state.  Scout pegged him as a 4-star and the #23 weakside linebacker.

COLLEGE
Demens redshirted as a freshman in 2008.  As a redshirt freshman in 2009, he played sparingly and notched just 7 tackles.  He was a backup middle linebacker in 2010 until Rich Rodriguez got fed up with the lack of development from starter Obi Ezeh, and Demens was forcefully inserted into the lineup, earning his first start against Iowa.  As a backup prior to that and a starter for the rest of the year, Demens outplayed Ezeh to tally 82 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, and 1 pass breakup in just seven starts.  With the arrival of new defensive coordinator Greg Mattison in 2011, Demens started every game and led the team with 94 tackles, adding 5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble, and 2 pass breakups.  He once again started all thirteen games in 2012, but he lost some playing time to freshman Joe Bolden due to early-season underperformance; Demens still finished with 82 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, and 1 interception.

CAREER STATISTICS
266 tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 1 interception, 3 pass breakups, and 1 forced fumble

AWARDS
All-Big Ten Honorable Mention, Zatkoff Award winner (team's best linebacker) in 2011

SUMMARY
I initially thought Demens was not a Michigan-caliber starter at middle linebacker.  I thought he was too slow and not instinctive enough.  But he was clearly a step up from Obi Ezeh.  He had a solid redshirt junior season in 2011, and I thought maybe, just maybe, he had met up with the right coaching staff to maximize his talents.  And maybe he did maximize those talents, but his senior season was just so-so.  While you can't expect a college linebacker to play every single meaningful down, he lost some playing time in key moments to freshman Joe Bolden, particularly against Air Force early in 2012.  Demens seemed to be on the rise, but instead he plateaued or even took a step backward.  He occasionally made a big hit and he was decent in pass coverage, but people probably won't be longing for the days of Kenny Demens in 10 or 15 years.  I applaud the work he put in for Michigan, though.  He was a steady force in the middle of a defense that improved significantly throughout his career.

I WILL REMEMBER HIM FOR . . . 
. . . not being Obi Ezeh.  I can't think of a signature play for Demens.

PROJECTION
I think Demens will sign somewhere as an undrafted free agent, but I don't think he has much of a future in the NFL.  While he is very thick and strong, he's not particularly fast, instinctive, or athletic, which limits his value even as a special teams player.  Since he lacks the speed to be a true 4-3 middle linebacker, I think the best situation for him might be if he gets signed by a 3-4 team as an inside 'backer.

Linebackers Preview: Michigan vs. South Carolina

Jake Ryan is Michigan's best defensive player

MICHIGAN
Starters: Redshirt sophomore SAM linebacker Jake Ryan (6'3", 242 lbs.) is the best defensive player on the squad with 84 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, and 3 pass breakups; he also plays some defensive end in passing situations.  Senior MIKE Kenny Demens (6'1", 242 lbs.) struggled early in the season, but has played well down the stretch to notch 81 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, and 1 interception.  Sophomore WILL Desmond Morgan (6'1", 227 lbs.) has 78 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, and 2 pass breakups on the year.  Whereas South Carolina's defensive linemen make a lot of plays, Michigan's defensive linemen eat up space and have allowed these linebackers to all make 80-ish tackles this season.
Backups: Freshman WILL James Ross (6'1", 225 lbs.) was named to the conference's All-Freshman team and made 34 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, and .5 sacks during the regular season; despite his youth and lack of size, he has been the most consistent backup.  Fellow freshman linebacker Joe Bolden (6'3", 223 lbs.) backs up Demens at the MIKE and has 28 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 fumble recovery on the year.  Redshirt junior Cam Gordon (6'3", 236 lbs.) hasn't made as many plays as I expected from him this year, but he has made 17 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and 1 pass breakup while spelling Ryan.

SOUTH CAROLINA
Starters: The Gamecocks basically run a 4-2-5 defensive, but safety-ish player DeVonte Holloman mostly plays like a linebacker, so I'll include him in this portion.  Senior Holloman (6'2", 241 lbs.) plays the Spur position, a strongside outside linebacker position much like former Wolverine Steve Brown played in 2009; Holloman has 54 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 4 pass breakups, and 3 interceptions.  Fifth year senior middle linebacker Reginald Bowens (6'3", 254 lbs.) has put up mostly modest numbers with 55 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 pass breakup, but has created several turnover opportunities with 3 forced fumbles and 2 fumble recoveries.  Senior weakside linebacker Shaq Wilson (5'11", 224 lbs.) leads the team with 77 tackles and has 4.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 pass breakup, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 fumble recovery.

Backups: Senior middle linebacker Damario Jeffery (6'4", 233 lbs.) has 22 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and 1 pass breakup on the year.  Senior weakside linebacker Quin Smith (6'1", 239 lbs.) has 47 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks on the year.  Holloman rarely comes off the field.

THE TAKEAWAY
This is a tough choice.  While Michigan's guys put up bigger tackle numbers, South Carolina's guys create more big plays with sacks, turnovers, etc.  Additionally, all five  Gamecocks who see significant time at linebacker are seniors.  Both units are pretty good, but the playmakers and seniority are on the other side.

Advantage: South Carolina

Video: Hoke, Robinson, Kovacs, Demens, Gardner, Roundtree press conference

Michigan vs. Northwestern Awards

Devin Gardner was highly effective throughout Saturday's victory (image via Bleacher Report)

Let's see more of this guy on offense . . . no one. Most of the starters are playing fairly well, and the ones who aren't don't have much behind them.

Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . Jerald Robinson.  I know former players keep picking him to break out each year, but he has done very little in his opportunities.  Maybe he's just one of those guys who's an all-star in practice but can't get it done in games.  That happens sometimes.

Let's see more of this guy on defense . . . Kenny Demens.  Yeah, I know he's a starter.  He was pulled out of the game for long stretches of the game, though, and Joe Bolden was inserted.  Bolden isn't ready to play in these Big Ten games.  I like him and I think he'll be good, but he's just not there yet.  Demens played almost every snap last year and seemed to do fine, so in these tight games, I'd like to see the senior playing as much as possible.

Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . Kain Colter.  Yeesh, that guy scared me.

Play of the game . . . Devin Gardner to Roy Roundtree.  That pass at the end of regulation, which was tipped by the defender and caught by Roundtree as he fell to the ground, set up the game-tying field goal by Brendan Gibbons.  It wasn't the game-winning touchdown by Gardner or the game-sealing tackle by Kenny Demens, but those plays don't happen without that highlight-reel catch by Roundtree.

MVP of the game . . . Devin Gardner.  I almost picked Roundtree, but Gardner accounted for four touchdowns (two rushing, two passing) and made a ton of huge plays in that game.  He scrambled for first downs, chucked the ball at Fitzgerald Toussaint to prevent a safety, threw the pass to Roundtree, and scored the winning touchdown.  He finished the game 16/29 for 286 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception; he also rushed 9 times for 47 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Michigan 38, Northwestern 31

Kenny Demens makes the game-clinching tackle (image via AnnArbor.com)

Kenny Demens goes boom.  In Friday's game preview, I predicted that Demens would have a big game.  It seemed like the coaches were trying to give him a breather by playing Joe Bolden a little bit, but I'm really not sold on Bolden being ready for Big Ten play right now; he'll be good but he's not yet.  Back to my point, Demens stepped up in a big way late in the game by making the final two tackles, including a thumping hit on Northwestern superback Tyris Jones to end the game.  Games against a team like Northwestern set up well for someone like Demens, who can take on Northwestern-caliber linemen and still make plays on interior runs.  He did get burned for a touchdown in pass coverage, but he was covering a wide receiver, which was hardly a fair contest.  Demens ended the game with 9 tackles and 2 tackles for loss.

Devin Gardner for Heisman? Okay, not really the Heisman, but Gardner has played really well in Denard Robinson's stead.  Brady Hoke insists that the offense doesn't really change when Gardner takes over for Robinson, but nobody who watches these games can actually believe that.  I felt bad for Kain Colter when he got hurt late in the game, but I didn't feel bad for Northwestern, because Michigan was already down their starting quarterback.  For Gardner to be so inexperienced and still have the ability to come out and beat the #24 team in the country speaks well for him.  And, oh by the way, some guys really stepped up and made plays for Gardner.  The junior QB finished the game 16/29 for 286 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, along with 9 rushes for 47 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Roy Roundtree is stepping up. I don't know why, but Roundtree has stepped up his game now that Gardner is playing quarterback.  Robinson and Roundtree are close friends, so I'm sure it's not related to a lack of personal chemistry.  It just seems like Roundtree has realized that he needs to step up to help out his inexperienced quarterback.  I wish it had happened earlier, but I'll take it now.  He had 5 receptions for 139 yards, and his final reception in regulation was a juggling catch he made while the Northwestern defensive back interfered with him. (No interference was called, but it should have been.)

Michigan won the game in the trenches.  Brady Hoke's philosophy seems to be that he wants to wear teams down, and Michigan will do so more consistently when the offensive line improves.  Right now Michigan's interior offensive linemen are just average, but by the fourth quarter, they had sufficiently worn down the Wildcats' interior.  Toussaint started to get some running room . . . which is why I was frustrated with Michigan's play call on the penultimate regulation drive, after Dennis Norfleet had returned a kickoff to Michigan's 47-yard line.  Al Borges had overused the play action pass up to that point, because Michigan hadn't been running the ball.  So when Borges called a post-wheel (for Gallon and Funchess, respectively), Northwestern hadn't learned to respect the run yet.  He put the game on Gardner's shoulders, and while Gardner has been playing well, he hadn't been in a situation this year when Michigan needed  a crunch-time drive from him.  Michigan could have moved the ball by running on the interior with about four minutes left and down by three points.  What happened the next time Michigan had a chance to run it, in overtime?  Fitzgerald Toussaint ran for 5 yards, then 3 yards, and then Gardner ran a bootleg for the game-winning touchdown.

Stop kicking to Venric Mark!  Mark is one of the most explosive players in the Big Ten, but Michigan's kickers and punters couldn't seem to help themselves from kicking to him.  He burned Michigan for a 96-yard kickoff return late in the game, but one of the Wildcats held Brandin Hawthorne and got flagged for it.

Northwestern doesn't throw well except against Michigan. Backup quarterback Trevor Siemian completed 6/7 passes for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Kain Colter was slightly less successful at 8/14 for 96 yards and 1 touchdown.  Michigan struggled with the pace of Northwestern's offense, and the Wolverines were beaten on the edge several times (partly because of numerous obvious holding calls that weren't noticed by the referees).  Northwestern could run and pass on Michigan's defense, and there was no consistent answer until overtime.  That answer was, of course, Kenny Demens.

Jordan Kovacs is now #11.  I don't really care.  It's just a number.  Before the game Kovacs was honored by being given the #11 jersey that was previously worn by the three Wistert brothers - Francis, Albert, and Alvin.  I've seen the argument that this prevents Kovacs from becoming a legend jersey down the road, but come on, Kovacs isn't a legend.  He's a walk-on who turned into a pretty good player, but that doesn't make him a legend.  I also don't think Michigan should give Legend jerseys to true freshmen, who still have three years to taint the number with drunk driving arrests, stealing laptops, etc.

Michigan is 7-3.  The team and fans should consider themselves slightly lucky to come out of this weekend with a victory.  Being 7-3 at this juncture isn't too bad, considering that Michigan has been without its starting quarterback for the last 2.5 games.  Regardless of the opponents, they have scored 35 and 38 points with the backup QB.  The defense has picked up its game at critical junctures, and the offense is doing enough to make games winnable, at least when Russell Bellomy isn't in the game.  The Wolverines should  beat Iowa, and that would lead up to the ballyhooed game against Ohio State.

Preview: Michigan vs. Northwestern

Good looking Northwestern girls are difficult to find, so here's Arley Elizabeth wearing purple.

Rush Offense vs. Northwestern Rush Defense
Michigan ranked #28 in the country with 201 yards/game, and Denard Robinson is the #12 rusher nationally with 118 yards/game.  It's questionable whether Robinson will play due to his elbow injury, and that means the coaches would try to keep the reins on Devin Gardner if Gardner plays.  Michigan would have to lean on running backs Fitzgerald Toussaint (391 yards, 5 touchdowns) and Thomas Rawls (217 yards, 3 touchdowns).  Neither running back has been particularly effective this season.  Meanwhile, Northwestern has the #23 rush defense in the country and gives up just 121 yards/game, but that could be a function of their weak pass defense.  Defensive end Tyler Scott leads the team in tackles for loss with 8.5, and linebacker Damien Proby leads in tackles with 86.  Michigan hasn't been able to run the ball consistently against anyone with a pulse this season, but assuming Denard Robinson is healthy, the Wolverines should be able to run over and around the Wildcats.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Northwestern Pass Defense
The Wolverines are the #105 passing offense with 178 yards/game, and Robinson alone has thrown 9 interceptions; Gardner threw 1 interception in his first action at quarterback last weekend; and redshirt freshman Russell Bellomy, who is not expected to play, has thrown 4 picks in just 21 attempts.  Add one interception from running back Vincent Smith and that adds up to 15 interceptions with just 11 total touchdowns.  However, Gardner was rather productive in the passing game last week by completing 66.7% of his passes and notching 2 touchdowns.  Northwestern has given up 272 yards/game through the air, which is 107th in the nation, and ranks #48 in pass efficiency defense.  As a team the Wildcats have picked off just 3 passes this year and they're #52 in sacks with 19.  The only consistent threat as a pass rusher is the aforementioned Scott, who has 7 quarterback takedowns.  Denard Robinson generally doesn't get sacked much because teams are afraid to sell out and let him scramble for big plays, but he also doens't pass the ball well; Gardner throws the ball better but can sometimes make poor decisions with the football and hold onto it for too long.  Neither phase is very good, but Michigan should be good here, regardless of who's playing quarterback.
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. Northwestern Rush Offense
The Wildcats have a very effective running game with superback Venric Mark (120 yards/game) and everythingback Kain Colter (69 yards/game).  The team is #13 in the country and gains 238 yards/game.  Mark is just 5'8" and 175 lbs., but he's shifty and fast; he averages 6.5 yards/carry.  The Wolverines have the #44 rushing defense in the country and give up 143 yards/game, but that number has dropped considerably since the first two weeks, when Michigan played Alabama and Air Force; since then the Wolverines have given up about 110 yards/game.  However, that number will almost certainly increase because Michigan has a tendency to struggle against uptempo offenses; Mark and Colter will both likely make an explosive play or two, but Michigan's safeties do a pretty good job of tackling and taking proper angles to avoid giving up huge plays.  Jordan Kovacs, Jake Ryan, and whoever plays weakside end this week will have to play well to tamp down the rushing game. I also expect Kenny Demens to have a good day.
Advantage: Northwestern

Pass Defense vs. Northwestern Pass Offense
Northwestern is the #109 passing offense and gains 163 yards/game through the air, while they're #96 in passing efficiency.  Quarterback Trevor Siemian has thrown 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, while Colter has thrown 3 and 2, respectively.  Leading receiver Tony Jones has just 21 receptions for 266 yards and 2 touchdowns, so this is not an effective passing game.  On the flip side, Michigan has the #1 passing defense in the country and gives up just 145 yards/game through the air.  The Wolverines have picked off 7 passes, and even though they don't notch a ton of sacks (team leader Jake Ryan has just 3.5, and the team has 11 total), they swarm together to tackle on short passes; however, some receivers have been able to get open deep, and opposing quarterbacks just haven't been able to take advantage recently.  Michigan isn't as good at defending the pass as the numbers might suggest, so the mediocre quarterbacking in the Big Ten has helped them out in this category.  Neither of Northwestern's quarterbacks should scare Michigan defensive backs.
Advantage: Michigan

Roster Notes

• Michigan recruited DT Greg Kuhar, LB Ifeadi Odenigbo, OT Eric Olson, and WR Kyle Prater
• Players from the state of Michigan include Flint (MI) Grand Blanc WR Tony Jones, DeWitt (MI) DeWitt OT Paul Jorgensen, Freeland (MI) Midland WR Drew Moulton, and Redford (MI) Thurston LB Eric Wilson

Predictions

• Kenny Demens and Desmond Morgan have big days
• Michigan makes some big plays in the running game with Toussaint and Rawls
• Craig Roh continues to improve
• Northwestern makes a couple big plays by getting to the edge
• Michigan 38, Northwestern 20

A Look Back . . . 

• Here's a recap of last year's 42-24 victory
• Here are the awards from last season's game

Michigan 44, Purdue 13

Denard Robinson had 235 rushing yards and 1 passing touchdown in the 44-13 win

Michigan's defense is awesome or Purdue's offense is terrible.  I couldn't figure out which it was.  I'm leaning toward the latter, really, because Purdue found it necessary to try three different quarterbacks and a bunch of trick plays.  Don't get me wrong - Michigan's defense looked good.  But Purdue couldn't do anything with consistency.  A couple trick plays turned out fairly well, and Robert Marve's first few plays were productive.  But otherwise, they just don't look like an offense that should scare any decent defensive teams.

I'm officially concerned about Fitzgerald Toussaint and the running game.  Toussaint (17 carries, 19 yards, 2 touchdowns) looks slower this year, quite frankly.  He also looks like he's dancing too much instead of burrowing forward for a couple yards when he can.  Of course, it starts with the offensive line, and I haven't been impressed this year with what the offensive line is doing.  None of the offensive linemen has taken a step forward this year, in my opinion.  Taylor Lewan has taken a step backward, and the other guys are just average.  Obviously, Denard Robinson (24 carries, 235 yards) was great, but the offensive line can't open holes for the running backs.  Even Thomas Rawls, who had good numbers (4 carries, 33 yards, 1 touchdown), had to break tackles at the line of scrimmage to get anything done.

The broadcasters were terrible.  One of them called it a "flea flicker" when Robert Marve hit a wide receiver on a hitch, then tossed it backward to the running back coming out of the backfield.  That's a "hook and lateral."  I thought the dumb interpretation of that was "hook and ladder" but the BTN guys took it one notch stupider.  Also, there was no way that Denard Robinson was down at the 1-yard line on the play they reviewed.  Even if the officials determined that Robinson's elbow hit the ground prior to the ball crossing the plane of the end zone, the ball should have been placed at about the 2-inch line.  I couldn't believe that the refs didn't change the spot of the ball (or award the touchdown), but the announcers didn't point it out, either.

Raymon Taylor had an okay game.  Taylor hasn't lit the world on fire and did get beaten on a slant for a touchdown, but I have to give credit where credit is due.  This was his second consecutive game with an interception, and he returned this one 63 yards for a touchdown.

Denard Robinson zone read anger.  Twice in this game, Robinson held onto the ball too long before pulling it out of the running back's stomach.  The first time it worked okay for him because he gained a bunch of yards, even though his running back (Toussaint or Smith, I can't remember) got smoked.  The second time it was disastrous because he got Smith crushed and, oh yeah, Robinson fumbled the ball in the process.  He gains a lot of yards because he's a dynamic runner, but he's never been adept at running those plays.

I'm really liking the linebacker crew.  I thought Jake Ryan (6 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack), Kenny Demens (6 tackles), and Desmond Morgan (6 tackles, 2 tackles for loss) all played very well.  There's not much experienced depth, but the guys backing them up are pretty good, too.  I like James Ross as a prospect, but I don't think anyone can really justify the talk about Morgan getting passed.  Michigan should be able to field a pretty good inside linebacker crew next year from some combination of Morgan, Ross, and Joe Bolden, not to mention a few other good linebacker prospects.

I liked the game plan.  If Denard Robinson can throw the ball fewer than 20 times a game, that's probably a good thing.  Between good defense and running the ball well, the game wasn't on Denard's throwing shoulder.  Offensive coordinator Al Borges said that he re-evaluated his play calls from the past couple seasons, and he seemed to conclude that throwing the ball with Denard is a bad idea.  Good for him.  Robinson still missed a wide open Fitzgerald Toussaint on a swing pass that would have gained a first down and had a couple other questionable throws, but a 50% completion percentage isn't so terrible when you're only throwing the ball 16 times.

Video: Robinson, Demens, Morgan interviews - Purdue week

2012 Season Predictions

This is always fun.  Take a look at my 2011 predictions.

Now for the things that will absolutely, 100% become true in the coming months:

Leading Rusher
Last year I picked the right guy (Denard Robinson) but fell short on the yardage.  Now that it looks like Fitzgerald Toussaint will miss some time due to legal issues, it's even more likely that Robinson leads the team in rushing for the third straight season.  Hopefully he can stay healthy and make this come true.
Prediction: Denard Robinson, 1200 yards

Leading Receiver
Starting flanker Roy Roundtree looks like he's being groomed to be this year's #1 target, now that he's been moved to the multiple receiver side and wearing the #21 jersey.  The coaches want him to be The Guy, and he's been successful before.  He doesn't have the same ability to catch balls in traffic as last year's leading receiver Junior Hemingway, but he does have some smoothness and shiftiness to him.
Prediction: Roy Roundtree, 750 yards

Leading Tackler
Starting middle linebacker Kenny Demens returns to the same role this season.  He doesn't have the same talent in front of him to keep him clean, but the mass of Quinton Washington and William Campbell, along with the steady play of Craig Roh, should help Demens maintain some level of consistency.
Prediction: Kenny Demens, 90 tackles

Leading Sacker
The pass rush is not this team's specialty.  Especially if weakside end Frank Clark can't play much because of legal issues, the athleticism just isn't there for the full-time players.  The best pass rusher on the unit is SAM linebacker Jake Ryan, but he might be overmatched if he has to play too much weakside end.  Ryan is better as a guy who moves around from the edge to an inside blitz, back to the edge, etc.
Prediction: Jake Ryan, 5.5 sacks

Leading Interceptor
I picked J.T. Floyd for this spot in 2010, but he got hurt halfway through the year.  Then I picked Jordan Kovacs last season, and he ended up with just 1 pick.  The best cover guy on the squad is Blake Countess, in my opinion, but Countess had 0 picks last year, though he had 1 in the spring game.  So I'm going to combine my last two choices.
Prediction: J.T. Floyd and Jordan Kovacs, 2 interceptions each

All-Big Ten First Team
Prediction: Taylor Lewan, Denard Robinson

Leading Scorer (non-QB, non-kicker)
Prediction: Fitzgerald Toussaint

Breakout Offensive Player
A lot of starters return again in 2012, and last year's choice (Jeremy Gallon) already kind of broke out.  Lots of exiting Michigan players have mentioned Jerald Robinson as a guy to watch, but I have yet to see it.  I'll go with Thomas Rawls, who at the very least should be able to run over some mediocre competition through the first half of the year (except Alabama) and pile up some decent numbers.
Prediction: Thomas Rawls

Breakout Defensive Player
This is a tough choice, because the back seven guys all return, the defensive line is expected to be mediocre, and perhaps my #1 choice during the offseason (Frank Clark) is in legal trouble and might miss too much time to be a smart choice here.  I guess I'll go with Thomas Gordon, who showed flashes of playmaking ability last year.  I expect him to be even better in pass coverage this year and help support the run quite a bit, so this should be a big year for him.
Prediction: Thomas Gordon

Most Disappointing Offensive Player
Lots of outgoing players have chosen Jerald Robinson as a breakout player, and we haven't even seen a glimpse of it in a spring game.  Before Roy Roundtree's 2010 breakout season, he had a good end to the 2009 campaign and an awesome spring game.  Before Jeremy Gallon's 2011 breakout season, he had some nice plays during his 2010 redshirt freshman season.  Robinson must do a lot in practice, but it never translates to anything more than that.  He won't disappoint me because I'm not expecting a ton, but I do think he'll disappoint some of those guys who think he'll be a stud.
Prediction: Jerald Robinson

Most Disappointing Defensive Player
The only way anyone in the back seven disappoints is if they regress.  It's already a rather solid group, perhaps without a superstar but pretty good nonetheless.  I think defensive tackle/end Jibreel Black is going to struggle.  He's too small to play 3-tech and too big/stiff to be a quality weakside end.  He might be okay against the run as a weakside end, but Michigan probably won't get much of a pass rush out of him.
Prediction: Jibreel Black

The Big Finish
Sept. 1 vs. Alabama: LOSS.  Michigan is probably going to struggle, especially running the ball.  Alabama has a very good offensive line and stops the run well.  That leaves the game in Denard Robinson's hands, and he can't pass Michigan to a win.

Sept. 8 vs. Air Force: WIN.  Air Force is going to struggle this season, and Michigan will be angry coming off the loss to Alabama.

Sept. 15 vs. Massachusetts: WIN.  UMass is in its first season in the FBS, and Michigan should handle them pretty well.  And it won't be a close final score like it was a couple years ago.

Sept. 22 at Notre Dame: WIN.  This is basically a toss-up because Notre Dame is going to be on the upswing this year, I think.  The Fighting Irish will be better, but Denard Robinson shouldn't be making the same mistakes he did in last year's game.

Oct. 6 at Purdue: WIN.  Purdue probably won't be very good this year.

Oct. 13 vs. Illinois: WIN.  Illinois doesn't have the offensive firepower to beat Michigan.  They always seem to have a couple good defensive players, but they're probably going to get overpowered on offense.

Oct. 20 vs. Michigan State: LOSS. Michigan State's defense scares me a little bit, and Michigan hasn't shown over the past few years that they can handle the pressure up the middle.

Oct. 27 at Nebraska: WIN.  This was a blowout in Ann Arbor last season, and Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead had a bit of a rough day.  Michigan's defensive line manhandled Nebraska's offensive line, so it won't be a blowout, just a fairly close victory.

Nov. 3 at Minnesota: WIN. Minnesota is bad.

Nov. 10 vs. Northwestern: WIN.  Offensively, Northwestern will give Michigan some trouble like they always do.  But eventually Michigan will figure it out, and the Wildcats won't be able to hold up on defense.

Nov. 17 vs. Iowa: WIN. Iowa lost quite a bit last year, and I think this might be a year when Kirk Ferentz and his revamped coaching staff can't hold it all together.

Nov. 24 at Ohio State: LOSS.  The Buckeyes are going to be good at the whole defense thing, but I expect them to take a year before Urban Meyer's offense really takes shape.  However, the game is at the Horseshoe, so Michigan will be a little off their game.

Final record: 9-3

2012 Season Countdown: #14 Kenny Demens

Kenny Demens

Name: Kenny Demens
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 242 lbs.
High school: Detroit (MI) Country Day
Position: Linebacker
Class: Redshirt senior
Jersey number: #25
Last year: I ranked Demens #3 and said he would have 100 tackles.  He had 94 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 2 pass breakups, and 1 forced fumble.

Demens went from a part-time starter in 2010 to almost never coming off the field in 2011.  At a solid 248 lbs., he looked like a prototypical linebacker for a 4-3 defense.  He was pretty good against the run and pretty good against the pass, although he never really seemed to have a signature play or signature game.  Ask a bunch of Michigan fans what their favorite Demens play is, and you'll either get no answer or a bunch of different answers.  Regardless, he was a mainstay on the field, even in obvious passing situations when a 6'1", 248-pounder with seemingly limited athleticism might seem to be a liability.

Now Demens has lost six pounds, which is probably a good thing.  While he wasn't overweight last season, the Big Ten is no longer a power run-heavy league and his weight seemed to be a bit cumbersome for chasing down all the spread running backs and receivers.  Maybe being a little lighter will give him an extra half step to make a few more plays, and 242 isn't small by any means.  I put Demens at #3 last season partly because he had no viable backup, and that was evidenced by the fact that he was rarely replaced, except in blowouts.  Now that freshman Joe Bolden is on campus, Demens should be able to get a breather.  Bolden likely won't be a crunch-time player, but he's more reliable than the backup MIKEs who were available last season.  Brandin Hawthorne also got more reps at MIKE in the spring and could be a situational replacement there, although he's more of a weakside 'backer.  Demens should get a little more rest this season, but he'll still have a big impact on the defense.

Prediction: 90 tackles, 1 interception

Butkus, Lombardi, Biletnikoff Award Watch Lists

Some award watch lists were released on Monday and Tuesday.  Michigan's very own Kenny Demens and Taylor Lewan appear on the Rotary Lombard Award watch list, and Roy Roundtree was mentioned for the Biletnikoff Award.  Here's a look at the rest of the players of note for Michigan fans:

Butkus Award (Top college linebacker)
Johnny Adams - CB - Michigan State
Chris Borland - LB - Wisconsin
Jonathan Brown - LB - Illinois
Max Bullough - LB - Michigan State
Gerald Hodges - LB - Penn State
Nico Johnson - LB - Alabama
Michael Mauti - LB - Penn State
C.J. Mosley - LB - Alabama
Etienne Sabino - LB - Ohio State
Bruce Taylor - LB - Virginia Tech
Manti Te'o - LB - Notre Dame

Rotary Lombardi Award (Outstanding lineman who best exemplifies discipline of Vince Lombardi)
Denicos Allen - LB - Michigan State
Chris Borland - LB - Wisconsin
Jonathan Brown - LB - Illinois
Michael Buchanan - DE - Illinois
Max Bullough - LB - Michigan State
Braxston Cave - C - Notre Dame
Kenny Demens - LB - Michigan
Tyler Eifert - TE - Notre Dame
D.J. Fluker - OT - Alabama
Travis Frederick - C - Wisconsin
Jaymes Gayle - DE - Virginia Tech
William Gholston - DE - Michigan State
Johnathan Hankins - DT - Ohio State
Jordan Hill - DT - Penn State
Gerald Hodges - LB - Penn State
Nico Johnson - LB - Alabama
Barrett Jones - C - Alabama
Taylor Lewan - OT - Michigan
Spencer Long - OG - Nebraska
Zack Martin - OT - Notre Dame
Chris McDonald - OG - Michigan State
James Morris - LB - Iowa
C.J. Mosley - LB - Alabama
Marcus Rush - DE - Michigan State
Kawann Short - DT - Purdue
John Simon - DE - Ohio State
Akeem Spence - DT - Illinois
Baker Steinkuhler - DT - Nebraska
Jake Stoneburner - TE - Ohio State
Bruce Taylor - LB - Virginia Tech
Mike Taylor - LB - Wisconsin
Manti Te'o - LB - Notre Dame
Ricky Wagner - OT - Wisconsin
Chance Warmack - OG - Alabama
Jesse Williams - DT - Alabama

Biletnikoff Award (Most outstanding wide receiver)
Jared Abbrederis - Wisconsin
Corey Brown - Ohio State
Keenan Davis - Iowa
Marcus Davis - Virginia Tech
T.J. Jones - Notre Dame
Roy Roundtree - Michigan

AnnArbor.com: Big Ten uniform bracket

Raychel Frew

The Big Ten Network recently had a bracket to determine the best uniforms in the Big Ten . . . and guess who won.

MGoBlog: Clinic Items - Greg Mattison

Greg Mattison is awesome.

Brian at MGoBlog attended a clinic at which Greg Mattison spoke.  First of all, I'm jealous.  Secondly, though, I loved every bit of Brian's post.  You should go there (if you haven't already) and read it in its entirety, but here I just want to a bit of a point-by-point analysis of what Brian shared.

"Occasionally it felt like it was a college class as Mattison asked the room what player X would be doing in a particular situation."  In my experience, the best speakers are the ones who keep the audience involved.  This isn't news to anyone who does frequent public speaking or is involved in education.  If you're just speaking at people, they often lose interest fairly quickly.

"As I wrestled with how to handle this various coaches in the room told every-damn-body that Mattison said Brennen Beyer was moving to WDE and Craig Roh to SDE. This was explicitly stated."  This is confirmation of my post from the other day.  Not that I'm a genius - the info was e-mailed to me - but there were some questions about the validity of my info.  I try not to post information I'm not confident in, so I like when my info is confirmed by multiple sources.

"Mattison took the opportunity to point out that this was an example of the corners not coming hard enough and gush over Floyd ("I love this kid") in general and specifically as an exemplar of the Michigan philosophy."  I think my criticisms of J.T. Floyd often get misconstrued as hating on a kid or holding a grudge.  I've never questioned Floyd's hustle or attitude.  What I've questioned is his overall athletic ability, and I think Brian's comment here somewhat confirms my criticisms.  Floyd hustles and indeed makes a nice play by chasing down Braxton Miller, but one of the issues here is that Floyd helped allow a giant run in the first place, which is acknowledged by Mattison.

"Here he also noted that everyone hits the sled every day and that this was not something the previous coaching staff did frequently, if ever. This is where the bit about "I've never seen such awful technique" came in. Pretty much the only thing negative Mattison said was about the state of the team he was handed."  The sled is such a useful tool in coaching football.  I know we saw clips of Rodriguez's teams hitting the sled, and I doubt they just did that for the camera.  I think Mattison might be underestimating how often Michigan hit the sled, but still it might be a significant improvement.  Whether it's a blocking sled, a tackling sled, a five-man sled, a two-man sled, whatever, they're the best simulation for live play.  And there's only so much man-on-man hitting you can do before people start getting injured.

"Inside linebackers. The usual: the mike has to be a little bigger, a little stronger, and the will has to be able to adjust to coverage outside of the box. An important difference between the two is the WLB has to be able to run vertically down the seam whereas the MLB can pass his guy off; IIRC this year the guy running down the seam was Demens, not Morgan. Adjustment based on Demens's surprising ability to stick with guys downfield?"  The MIKE and the WILL are interchangeable, especially with a guy like Desmond Morgan, who is essentially a MIKE (albeit young and small-ish) playing because of a void at the position.  I think Demens was often dropping into coverage because offenses flipped the formation's strength.  The inside linebackers don't flip with a change of strength, so then the MIKE becomes the WILL and vice versa.

"Corners. "Corners are corners" but the field corner (Countess) is not involved with "heavy work" and usually just has to clean up plays that have been strung out. The boundary corner (Floyd) has to be a bigger guy better in run support. It's a seven man front; if you go eight you'd "better have a war daddy" at field corner because he's got to cover an outside receiver with little additional help."  This is where the loss of Anthony Standifer hurts.  I really think Standifer, who was committed to Michigan for several months, could have developed into a good run supporter and boundary corner.  Richardson is a lot like Blake Countess, so now Michigan has two young field corners (three if you include Courtney Avery) and one senior boundary corner (Floyd).  I think that's why you're seeing so many big corners getting offered in the class of 2013.  Michigan needs run supporting corners right NOW.  It might also be why incoming free safety Jarrod Wilson might get a shot to play cornerback.

"Brennen Beyer. Beyer was talked up like a future star. Reportedly up to 250 pounds and will be given an opportunity to win the WDE job in the spring."  This sounds like a good plan to me, because Beyer seemed a little out of place at SAM.

"Departing DL. Heininger "really became a football player." Seems like they think they'll miss him. Van Bergen "really, really played" for M and Martin was of course the best player on the team."  I agree that Martin was the best player on the team.  Yes, better than Denard Robinson.  Heininger is replaceable, and Van Bergen's loss will be mitigated somewhat by the move of Craig Roh to strongside end.  This isn't news, but the biggest loss here is Mike Martin.  As much as I like most of the defense, the loss of such a big-time nose tackle is going to hurt.  Even when Martin wasn't making plays, he was causing the offense to scheme around him or he was making running backs redirect in the backfield.  Teams often improve in the second year of a system, but that might be difficult unless William Campbell and/or Ondre Pipkins has a breakout season.      

Sugar Bowl: Michigan 23, Virginia Tech 20

Troy Woolfolk's helmet is thrust in the air under a downpour of confetti
(image via BTN)

Wow, that was an exciting game.  And not in a good way . . . except for the fact that Michigan won.  That was Michigan's ugliest win of the season and it took some lucky calls to go the Wolverines' way.

The offense disappeared. Yikes. Denard Robinson had 13 carries for 13 yards.  Fitzgerald Toussaint had 13 carries for 30 yards.  Altogether, Michigan ran the ball 30 times for 56 yards, or 1.9 yards per attempt.  Robinson completed 9/21 passes for 117 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 pick.  It was a bad night.  As I was laying out the Virginia Tech position previews over the past couple weeks, people kept commenting on how I was overrating the Hokies.  They are pretty good.  Maybe Michigan fans will understand that now.

Michigan got lucky.  The guys in the winged helmets played hard-nosed football at times last night, but ultimately, they got very  lucky on numerous occasions.  Two Jayron Hosley interceptions were negated, one because the ball hit the ground and one because he yanked on Jeremy Gallon's jersey and got called for pass interference; he almost had another pick when he jumped a Junior Hemingway hitch route.  Free safety Eddie Whitley let two interceptions go right through his hands, including Hemingway's 45-yard touchdown catch.  On top of Robinson's one interception, he almost threw four  more . . . and on only 21 attempts.  Aside from the near-interceptions, Hokies wide receiver Danny Coales caught what might have been the game-winning touchdown pass, only to have it overturned because the nose of the ball hit the ground; it was probably the right call, but it could have very easily remained a touchdown after the replay booth took a look at it.

We're going to miss Junior Hemingway.  That guy doesn't get the ball very often, but he makes huge plays. He only had 2 catches on the night, but they went for 63 total yards . . . and 2 touchdowns.  Nobody else even sniffed the endzone.  Roy Roundtree makes some big catches once in awhile, but he hasn't been nearly the receiver that he was in 2010.  Michigan needs a youngster to step up next year, whether it will be a redshirt sophomore Jerald Robinson or a freshman Jehu Chesson.  Hemingway was the obvious pick for Sugar Bowl MVP, at least on Michigan's side.

We missed are going to miss David Molk.  I started off the game being extremely frustrated.  Starting center David Molk, who happened to win the Rimington Trophy this season for being the nation's best player at his position, sat out the beginning of the game after injuring his lower leg during pregame.  Backup Rocko Khoury combined with Robinson to have two bad snaps on Michigan's first three plays.  Both snaps were catchable but slightly off target, and the second one was a bullet to boot.  I can't put all the blame on either player, but when you have one starter for the entire season and even up to pregame of the bowl game, it's somewhat understandable that there will be some snap issues when the backup has to start the bowl game.  Molk returned after the first offensive series and the snap issues disappeared, although he looked gimpy for the entire game.  Michigan's lack of a running game may have been partly due to Molk's injury, but I'll have to watch the game again to see what the real issues were.

That's what true athletes look like in the secondary.  Michigan lined up in Cover 0 and got torched.  Virginia lined up in Cover 0 and got sacks.  The Wolverines' cornerbacks and safeties just aren't fast enough and athletic enough to lock up with decent receivers on a regular basis.  It's frustrating to watch, but J.T. Floyd, Blake Countess, Troy Woolfolk, Jordan Kovacs, Courtney Avery, and Thomas Gordon aren't the same caliber of athletes that the Hokies put out there.  Countess is going to be good, I believe, but he's hit a rough patch here at the end of the season.  Watching Hosley, Whitley, Antoine Exum, and Kyle Fuller fly around the field was a bit of a wake-up call and shows how far Michigan has to go.  Hosley alone had 4 pass breakups.

Everyone's expectations for Frank Clark just doubled.  The freshman defensive end made a highlight-reel interception when he leaped to knock down a Logan Thomas pass and came down with the pick.  I mentioned in the preview that I thought he would play quite a bit with defensive tackle Will Heininger out, and that came to fruition.  He seemed like a man without a position when he came out of high school, but it looks like he'll be a good one for the next few years.

Tackling was an issue.  Michigan's tackling has been so good this year that I'm going to assume this game was a bit of a fluke, but Michigan missed numerous tackles.  And some of the guys who were whiffing are normally very good tacklers, like Jordan Kovacs and Kenny Demens.  It's understandable to whiff on David Wilson or get run over by the 6'5", 254 lb. Logan Thomas, but Michigan was missing tackles on Danny Coales, Josh Oglesby, etc.  It was a bad time to have a poor night of tackling, but luckily it didn't hurt the Wolverines in the win column.

Red zone defense was huge.  For whatever reason, Michigan really buckles down in the red zone.  As the announcers mentioned last night, Michigan was #2 in the Big Ten and #4 in the country at stopping opponents in the red zone.  Virginia Tech had long drive after long drive and ended the game with 377 yards (Michigan had 184), 22 first downs (Michigan had 12), and 76 offensive snaps (Michigan had 52) . . . but it doesn't matter so much when you have to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.

Brendan Gibbons to the rescue.  I don't think anyone - including me - expected Gibbons to be so reliable this year.  But in the Sugar Bowl he went 3/3 on field goals (from 24, 37, and 39 yards out), including the game-winning 37-yarder, and 2/2 on extra points.  And for the entire year, he went 13/17 on field goal attempts and 54/55 on extra points.  Bravo to him.

Linebackers Preview: Michigan vs. Virginia Tech

Kyle Fuller (#17) was a Second Team All-ACC pick despite starting at three different positions,
including weakside linebacker (image via Collegiate Times)

MICHIGAN
Starters: Redshirt freshman Jake Ryan (6'3", 230 lbs.) started 10 games at strongside linebacker; he ended the season with 30 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble, and 2 fumble recoveries.  Redshirt junior middle linebacker Kenny Demens (6'1", 248 lbs.) started every game and led the team in tackles; he finished with 86 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, and 1 forced fumble.  True freshman weakside linebacker Desmond Morgan (6'1", 220 lbs.) took over the starting job midway through the year and started 6 games altogether; he ended the regular season with 53 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 fumble recovery.
Backups: True freshman Brennen Beyer (6'3", 225 lbs.) is the backup SAM and made 11 total tackles.  Junior Brandin Hawthorne (6'0", 214 lbs.) is the backup WILL (and started 5 games before losing his spot), finishing with 43 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 interception.  Demens rarely leaves the field.

VIRGINIA TECH
Starters: Redshirt sophomore middle linebacker Jack Tyler (6'0", 229 lbs.) made 3 starts on the season; he ended the year with 35 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 fumble recovery.  Redshirt sophomore inside linebacker Tariq Edwards (6'2", 231 lbs.) started every game; he has 63 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, 2 interceptions, and 1 fumble recovery.  Sophomore cornerback Kyle Fuller (6'0", 187 lbs.) has started the last 2 games at weakside linebacker due to injuries, but started the other 11 games in the defensive backfield and was a Second Team All-ACC selection; he has 64 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 1 interception, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 fumble recovery.  Tyler and Fuller are replacing injured starters Bruce Taylor and Jeron Gouveia-Winslow, respectively, who will also miss the Sugar Bowl.
Backups: Fifth year senior middle linebacker Barquell Rivers (6'0", 250 lbs.) has 16 tackles, 1/2 a sack, and 1 interception.  Redshirt junior outside linebacker Alonzo Tweedy (6'2", 189 lbs.) has 20 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and 1 sack.

THE TAKEAWAY
It's tempting to say that Michigan has the advantage here, since all three starters have superior size and actually earned  their positions rather than stepping in due to injury.  Two of Virginia Tech's starters are replacements, although Fuller has started every game this season at various positions.  But what Michigan has in game experience might be trumped by the playmaking ability of Edwards and Fuller, who have combined for 24 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, and 3 interceptions.  And despite the relative health of Michigan's unit, two of those three starters are still just freshmen.

The Hokies are #37 in the country in tackles for loss, while Michigan ranks at #72.  Additionally, Virginia Tech has the #17 rushing defense, compared to Michigan's #34 rushing D.  The Hokies might be small, but they're quick and they get to the ball.  They have made their name on special teams and defense over the years, and defensive coordinator Bud Foster is a pretty good coordinator.  They won't be able to keep up with Denard Robinson in a foot race, but they should create a nice challenge.

Advantage: Virginia Tech

Michigan vs. Ohio State Grades: Defense

Desmond Morgan struggled with Braxton Miller's speed but otherwise looks like a solid player for the Wolverines

I once again worked out some grades for Michigan's defense against OSU (see also: Nebraska).  Grades for each play ranged from +3 to -3 for good/bad reads, filling/missing assignments, and physical superiority/inferiority.

GRADES
MMartin: +10 . . . Not as dominant as in previous games, but doesn't get beaten - ever
RVanBergen: +8 . . . More big plays than Martin, but got out of rush lane a couple times
WHeininger: +6 . . . Physically overmatched, but slanting helped him be effective
KDemens: +5 . . . Solid tackler who doesn't give ground
JKovacs: +5 . . . Decent day but took a late hit penalty
CAvery: +3 . . . Consistently solid and then made a huge pick to seal the game
JBlack: +2 . . . Nice play near goal line to keep his feet and chase down Braxton Miller
TGordon: +2 . . . Beaten in pass coverage but made some nice tackles in open field
DMorgan: +2 . . . Usually in position but not fast enough to keep up with Miller.  Future MIKE?
WCampbell: +1 . . . Didn't play much but held his ground when he did
CRoh: +1 . . . Had some nice pass rushes but big mistake on Miller's TD run
JRyan: +1 . . . OSU ran away from him most of the game
BCountess: 0 . . . Got lucky on an overthrow, but mostly tight coverage
NBrink: -1 . . . Unfair to be matched up against Mike Adams but got blown off the ball
MJones: -1 . . . Just isn't very fast or aggressive
TWoolfolk: -5 . . . Seemed to make some bad reads
JFloyd: -10 . . . Beaten deep a couple times, missed tackle on Dan Herron's TD run

CONCLUSIONS
It sure seemed like defensive coordinator Greg Mattison was willing to take a lot of risks in this game, in hopes that Braxton Miller would make some freshman mistakes.  He did, but not a lot.  It looked like Mattison realized that his defensive line had been playing extremely well for the last several weeks and his game plan revolved around them dominating the game.  The starters combined for a +25 grade with Craig Roh being the weak link.

DeVier Posey is a great deal better than J.T. Floyd and Blake Countess.  There's no way around it.  Michigan doesn't have anyone who can handle him on the regular, so it might have been a good idea to try to force Miller to scramble and look to check down.  Miller probably played his best game of the season when it comes to throwing the ball, because they put almost the entire game on his shoulders.

OSU tried to take advantage of freshman weakside linebacker Desmond Morgan, but he held up pretty well.  Morgan was too slow in the open field to catch Miller a couple times, but it's no surprise that an inside linebacker is going to be at a disadvantage against a guy like him.  Otherwise, Morgan made some excellent plays inside and blew up fullback Zach Boren a couple times.  He might lack the athleticism to stay at WILL for his entire career at Michigan, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him slide over and replace Demens in 2013.

Looking Back at My Predictions...

This girl approves of my pre-season predictions.

It's always interesting to me to look back at my predictions from the beginning of the season.  Some were alarmingly accurate, others not so much.

A few highlights:

Leading rusher: I picked Denard Robinson to have 900 yards, which was too few yards (he has 1,163 while Fitzgerald Toussaint has 1,011) but the right guy.

Leading receiver: I picked Junior Hemingway to have 1,000 yards.  Again, the right guy but a ways off on the yardage total (he has 636).

Leading tackler: I picked Kenny Demens to have 100.  He currently has 86 and has an outside shot to get to 100 in the bowl game.

Leading sacker: I picked Roh to have 7.  This probably won't happen unless he has a monster bowl game.  Roh has 4 but Ryan Van Bergen currently has 5.

Leading interceptor: I picked Kovacs to have 3.  He only has 1.  Courtney Avery and J.T. Floyd are currently tied for the lead with 2.

Breakout offensive player: I picked Jeremy Gallon.  And while Gallon did break out this season (30 catches, 450 yards, 4 touchdowns), I think it's fair to say that Fitzgerald Toussaint had a bigger breakout.

Breakout defensive player: I picked Courtney Avery, who is tied for the team lead in interceptions and returned a fumble for a touchdown.  So that's close.  But I also mentioned Desmond Morgan in the blurb, and he earned a starting job and ranks fifth in tackles.

Most disappointing offensive player: I picked Roy Roundtree, who had over 900 yards last season but only had 18 receptions for 345 yards and 2 touchdowns this year.  I can't think of anyone else who was disappointing on offense.

Most disappointing defensive player: I picked Troy Woolfolk.  Woolfolk got a lot of hype prior to the season (from me included) because of his solid play in 2009, but I had a feeling that he would be just a guy this year.  He's currently tied for 11th in tackles and didn't have a hand in any turnovers, so I think he probably counts as most disappointing.  But he was nursing injuries for most of the season, so we didn't see the best of him, unfortunately.

Michigan vs. Nebraska Grades: Defense

Yeah, you better pitch that ball.
(image via GreenwichTime)

I tried out something new this week.  It's still a work in progress, but I graded the defense.  The scoring formula is very similar to that of MGoBlog in that a player's score on each play can vary from a +3 all the way to a -3.  Only players who are directly involved in each play were scored, so for example, the backside corner on a sweep to the right is unlikely to be involved.  Points were added or subtracted due to good/bad reads, filling/missing assignments, and physical superiority/inferiority (i.e. getting juked is a negative, open-field tackle is a positive).

SCORES
MMartin: +17 . . . Had a monster day, beat offensive linemen off snap, crushed a RB trying to block
JKovacs: +9 . . . Also had a great day, made several plays in the open field
RVanBergen: +7 . . . Made a lot of nice plays, but lost gap responsibility a couple times
KDemens: +6 . . . Played downhill nicely, made some plays in coverage too
JRyan: +5 . . . Up and down day, played physically, punished a slot receiver trying to block him
DMorgan: +3 . . . Did good job flowing to the ball, missed a couple tackles in the hole
CAvery: +2 . . . Played well when called upon, did a good job of covering flat
WCampbell: +2 . . . Hustled to crush Martinez, notched a sack, got blown off ball by double-team
TWoolfolk: +2 . . . Largely a non-factor but had a nice pass breakup
FClark: +1 . . . Athletic but raw
BBeyer: 0 . . . Average, perhaps too stiff to remain at OLB permanently
BCountess: 0 . . . Lost contain on final Nebraska touchdown, but even Urban Meyer never saw play before
JFurman: 0 . . . One good play, one bad play
DHollowell: 0 . . . One good play, one bad play
MJones: 0 . . . Just not very athletic
JVanSlyke: 0 . . . Ho-hum
JBlack: -1 . . . Looks like a future 3-tech DT, poor change-of-direction skills
NBrink: -1 . . . Overmatched
JFloyd: -1 . . . One bad beat, a couple good plays in coverage
WHeininger: -1 . . . Somewhat overmatched, got too far upfield once
CRoh: -1 . . . Needs to do better job of disengaging from blockers in run game
RTaylor: -1 . . . Beat in coverage once
QWashington: -1 . . . Mostly invisible
BHawthorne: -2 . . . Doesn't know how to wrap up ballcarriers
TGordon: -2 . . . One bad beat, otherwise not involved much
TOTAL: +43

CONCLUSIONS
I don't think I can overstate how awesome Mike Martin was.  Even when he wasn't making tackles, he was pressuring Martinez or screwing up the blocking scheme.  Van Bergen was pretty dominant up front, too.  Michigan fans are pretty spoiled right now, because there are two seniors up front who are taking care of business.  Next year there's bound to be a dropoff at those two positions, so enjoy these last two games.

The freshmen weren't great but weren't horrible, either.  Desmond Morgan, Frank Clark, Brennen Beyer, Blake Countess, Delonte Hollowell, and Raymon Taylor combined for a +3 score on the day, mostly thanks to Morgan.  Brandin Hawthorne's unwillingness to wrap up when he tackles is maddening; he actually packs a punch despite being undersized, but it doesn't matter if the guy doesn't fall down.