2011 Final Countdown

Hooray!  It's finally over.  The countdown was a lot of fun to do, but it took a ton of time.  That's 89 consecutive days of player profiles.  Now that football season has started, it took some serious devotion to churn out these last several profiles between practice, work, and plain old real life.  I hope you enjoyed it.  In order to celebrate, here's a picture of a hot girl named Ari Brugh:

Ari Brugh

Here's the list all in one place, so you can see where each player ranks and debate the placement if you'd like . . . and we'll do it all over again next year.

1. Mike Martin, DT
2. Denard Robinson, QB
3. Kenny Demens, LB
4. Taylor Lewan, OT
5. David Molk, C
6. Kevin Koger, TE
7. Patrick Omameh, OG
8. Junior Hemingway, WR
9. Troy Woolfolk, CB
10. Ryan Van Bergen, DE
11. Roy Roundtree, WR
12. Carvin Johnson, S
13. Jordan Kovacs, S
14. Will Hagerup, P
15. William Campbell, DT
16. Ricky Barnum, OG
17. Craig Roh, DE
18. Martavious Odoms, WR
19. Cameron Gordon, LB
20. Mark Huyge, OT
21. Drew Dileo, WR
22. Courtney Avery, CB
23. Jibreel Black, DE
24. Michael Cox, RB
25. Devin Gardner, QB
26. Marell Evans, LB
27. Jake Ryan, LB
28. Matt Wile, K
29. Stephen Hopkins, RB
30. Michael Shaw, RB
31. Marvin Robinson, S
32. Quinton Washington, DT
33. Mike Jones, LB
34. John McColgan, FB
35. Darryl Stonum, WR
36. Thomas Gordon, S
37. J.T. Floyd, CB
38. Rocko Khoury, OG
39. Tom Pomarico, LS
40. Jerald Robinson, WR
41. Je'Ron Stokes, WR
42. Michael Schofield, OT
43. Vincent Smith, RB
44. Brandon Moore, TE
45. Kelvin Grady, WR
46. J.B. Fitzgerald, LB
47. Richard Ash, DT
48. Jeremy Jackson, WR
49. Ricardo Miller, TE
50. Seth Broekhuizen, K
51. Jeremy Gallon, WR
52. Josh Furman, S
53. Fitzgerald Toussaint, RB
54. Will Heininger, DE
55. Steve Watson, TE
56. Thomas Rawls, RB
57. Ken Wilkins, DE
58. Elliott Mealer, OG
59. Blake Countess, CB
60. Brandon Herron, LB
61. Tony Anderson, CB
62. Brandin Hawthorne, LB
63. Terrence Robinson, WR
64. Kellen Jones, LB
65. Tamani Carter, S
66. Raymon Taylor, CB
67. Erik Gunderson, OT
68. Greg Brown, CB
69. Christian Pace, C/G
70. Jared Van Slyke, S
71. Terrence Talbott, CB
72. Isaiah Bell, LB
73. Antonio Poole, LB
74. Terry Talbott, DT
75. Jordan Paskorz, LB
76. Brendan Gibbons, K
77. Teric Jones, RB
78. Desmond Morgan, LB
79. Delonte Hollowell, CB
80. Frank Clark, LB
81. Brennen Beyer, DE
82. Chris Barnett, TE
83. Chris Bryant, OG
84. Russell Bellomy, QB
85. Chris Rock, DE
86. Justice Hayes, RB
87. Keith Heitzman, DE
88. Tony Posada, OG
89. Jack Miller, C

2011 Countdown: #1 Mike Martin

Mike Martin

Name: Mike Martin
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 304 lbs.
High school: Catholic Central High School in Redford, MI
Position: Nose tackle
Class: Senior
Jersey number: #68
Last year: I ranked Martin #4 and said he would have 60 tackles and 4 sacks.  He had 37 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks.

As you can tell by my ranking of Martin, he has a chance to be a big-time player for Michigan this season.  Of course, if he struggles with injuries like he did last season, this defense could go down the tubes.  Martin started 12 out of 13 games last season, but he was hampered by ankle injuries for the majority of the season, spraining both of them at different times.  He still managed to put up decent numbers for a nose tackle and be named Second Team All-Big Ten, but it wasn't quite the performance that most expected.  He had 51 tackles and 8.5 tackles for loss back in 2009, so it was a step back for the then-junior.

Part of that can be attributed to the 3-3-5 that was ineptly installed by Rich Rodriguez and Greg Robinson.  The defense is designed so that eight men are in the box and any (or all) of them could rush the passer at any given point.  That would confuse offensive linemen and quarterbacks, thus freeing up any number of defenders to make plays.  Unfortunately for the Wolverines, Robinson blitzed only occasionally and allowed opposing offensive lines to devote at least two blockers to Martin on every play.  So despite having a defensive tackle who has been All-Big Ten worthy for the past two seasons, Michigan's coaches have seen his sack totals remain steady at 2, 2, and last season . . . 2.5.  Meanwhile, Michigan's sack totals have dropped steadily since 2006 from 43 to 33 to 29 to 22 to a low of 18 in 2010.  In other words, this team was getting almost 3.5 sacks a game five years ago . . . and only got 1.5 per game last season.  Remember when we all thought Ron English was a bad coordinator?

Anyway, Michigan finally has another coach (well, coaches) who understands the importance of creating havoc with the defensive line, and they plan to move their best lineman around to give him a chance to make plays.  In the spring and during August practices, Martin has been sliding all around the front seven, playing nose tackle, defensive tackle, defensive end, and outside linebacker.  There's even a clip of him playing outside linebacker, picking off Denard Robinson, and taking it to the house.  This is good.  Not because Denard Robinson is throwing picks to 300-pound linemen, but because Michigan's defensive coaches have the creativity and confidence to throw wrinkles at quarterbacks that they don't expect.

Martin ranks this highly on the list because there's nobody else on the team like him.  Aside from having a depleted defensive line from a numbers standpoint, the rest of Michigan's defensive tackles are relatively stationary, with 319 lb. William Campbell, former offensive guard Quinton Washington, and redshirt freshman heavyweight Richard Ash.  When Martin went down in the Iowa game last season, his replacement, Adam Patterson, got pushed diagonally for about 10 yards while the Hawkeye running back ran in the opposite direction.  I can't say that I've ever seen a Michigan defensive lineman get handled so easily.  With unproven linebackers and solid-but-unspectacular defensive backs, Michigan's defensive line must  be stellar this season.  If they struggle to hold at the point of attack, bad things will happen.  After being increasingly beaten, battered, and embarrassed, this defense needs a shot of confidence.  Hopefully Martin can help with that.

Prediction: 50 tackles, 4.5 sacks; First Team All-Big Ten

2011 Countdown: #2 Denard Robinson

Denard Robinson (#16) targets Roy Roundtree

Name: Denard Robinson
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 193 lbs.
High school: Deerfield Beach High School in Deerfield Beach, FL
Position: Quarterback
Class: Sophomore
Jersey number: #16
Last year: I ranked Robinson #5, said he would be the backup quarterback, and pegged him for 800 yards rushing, 900 yards passing, and 18 total touchdowns.  Boy, was I wrong.  He started every game, went 182/291 passing for 2,570 yards, and had 18 passing touchdowns with 11 interceptions.  He also rushed for 1,702 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Name a record and he set it, name an award committee and they voted him the winner.  Robinson set multiple Michigan records, including total yardage, and rushed for more yards than any quarterback in NCAA history.  He also was named team MVP, Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, Big Ten MVP, All-American, my high school's homecoming king, American Idol, and America's Next Top Model.  It was a pretty good year.

Rather than trying to summarize what he did in words, just take a look at Robinson's weekly box scores:

UConn: 19/22 passing, 186 yards, 1 touchdown; 29 carries, 197 yards, 1 touchdown
Notre Dame: 24/40 passing, 244 yards, 1 touchdown; 28 carries, 258 yards, 2 touchdowns
UMass: 10/14 passing, 241 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception; 17 carries, 104 yards, 1 touchdown
BGSU: 4/4 passing, 60 yards; 5 carries, 129 yards, 2 touchdowns
Indiana: 10/16 passing, 277 yards, 3 touchdowns; 19 carries, 217 yards, 2 touchdowns
MSU: 17/29 passing, 215 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions; 21 carries, 86 yards, 1 touchdown
Iowa: 13/18 passing, 96 yards, 1 touchdowns, 1 interception; 18 carries, 105 yards
PSU: 11/23 passing, 190 yards, 1 touchdown; 27 carries, 191 yards, 3 touchdowns
Illinois: 10/20 passing, 305 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions; 19 carries, 62 yards
Purdue: 13/21 passing, 176 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions; 22 carries, 68 yards
Wisconsin: 16/25 passing, 239 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception; 22 carries, 121 yards, 2 touchdowns
Ohio State: 8/18 passing, 87 yards; 18 carries, 105 yards
Mississippi State: 27/41 passing, 254 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception; 11 carries, 59 yards

He had nine 100-yard rushing games and seven 200-yard passing games.  He averaged 6.6 yards per carry, which is an outstanding average when one considers that Michigan's running backs were mostly average and rarely a threat to do anything but get injured.

The coaching change is bound to take away some of Robinson's impressive stats.  Including yours truly, many people were concerned that giving that ball to a 6'0", 190 lb. kid twenty times a game was a bad idea . . . especially when the season's outcome not only relies on that kid's legs, but also his shoulder, elbow, wrist, hand, and fingers.  Robinson missed time in several games last season due to injury, and the new coaching staff won't put him at risk that often.  That also means cutting into his rushing statistics, but with an improved defensive philosophy and - hopefully - a new commitment to getting production from the running backs, Robinson should be a little healthier throughout the year.

When Brady Hoke was hired back in January, he emphasized a commitment to the "power run" which is a play usually designed to be run from the I-formation.  I expect Hoke and offensive coordinator Al Borges to run a good deal of power from the I-formation, and that means a handful of other plays out of the "I" as well.  However, I think Hoke and Borges will realize that Robinson works best from the shotgun, where he can see the field a little more clearly and read running and passing lanes a little more easily.  After the first few games, the coaches ought to be able to figure out their "bread and butter" plays and adjust their offensive philosophy from there.  I expect to see several designed quarterback runs each game, along with a light dose of zone read option plays, bootlegs, and bubble screens.

Not to be Debbie Downer, but I doubt that the country will see such an explosive offense as last season.  Robinson will make his fair share of nice runs - designed or not - and his running ability will open up some big plays in the passing game, too.  But I still have my doubts about Robinson as a passer.  He's not extremely accurate and he won't be able to rely on coaches making playcall adjustments from the sideline in the same no-huddle manner as we've seen from Michigan, Northwestern, and Oregon in recent years.  Last season Robinson struggled to throw an accurate deep ball consistently, and even some of his short throws (bubble screens, hitches, etc.) were inaccurate.  There were several instances where guys like Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway openly showed their frustration when short passes were thrown at their feet and they couldn't do what that pass aims to do, which is allow for yards after the catch.  It will no doubt be an exciting season for Robinson and Michigan fans, but I'm not expecting another Heisman campaign.

Prediction: 2,700 yards passing and 900 yards rushing, 28 total touchdowns; First Team All-Big Ten

2011 Countdown: #3 Kenny Demens

Kenny Demens

Name: Kenny Demens
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 248 lbs.
High school: Detroit Country Day School in Oak Park, MI
Position: Middle linebacker
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #25
Last year: I ranked Demens #35 and said he'd be the backup MIKE.  He started the final seven games of the year and finished with 82 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, and 1 pass breakup.

Demens was a pleasant surprise in 2010.  After much practice hype, he actually lived up to it . . . belatedly.  Despite a frustrating lack of production and progression from a returning starter in Obi Ezeh, Demens sat on the bench for the first several games and watched Ezeh give away all kinds of yardage.  He stepped into the starting lineup against Iowa in the seventh game of the season and never looked back, making 71 tackles in his seven starts (Ezeh had 42 tackles in his 7 starts).  He was a hard-hitting, run-stuffing tackling machine who made every Michigan fan giddy, unless it was a pass.  The 248 pounder, who has put on four lbs. since last season, seemed a little bit stiff and unaware in pass coverage, things which should improve with experience.

Demens will no longer have to battle an undeserving upperclassman for the starting middle linebacker job, which means he looks like the de facto starter at MIKE.  As a 4-3 middle linebacker with the weakside end and the strongside linebacker funneling running backs to the middle of the field, Demens should put up some excellent numbers this fall.  Defensive coordinator Greg Mattison, previously of the Baltimore Ravens, had a Pro Bowl middle linebacker in the form of Ray Lewis.  If you take a look at measurements of both Demens and Lewis, both play the same position, both are 6'1", and they're within two pounds of each other (Lewis is 250).  Certainly I'm not saying that Demens is the second coming of Ray Lewis, but Demens flashed the ability to stop the run like the former Miami Hurricane by playing downhill and delivering a solid blow to the ballcarrier when he arrived.  For the first time in a few years, Wolverines fans have a reason to be optimistic about their middle linebacker.

Prediction: Starting middle linebacker; 100 tackles

2011 Countdown: #4 Taylor Lewan

Taylor Lewan (#77) protects Denard Robinson
(image via AnnArbor.com)

Name: Taylor Lewan
Height: 6'8"
Weight: 302 lbs.
High school: Chaparral High School in Scottsdale, AZ
Position: Offensive tackle
Class: Redshirt sophomore
Jersey number: #77
Last year: I ranked Lewan #28 and said he would be a spot starter at left tackle.  He started 9 games at left tackle.

Lewan was one of the most exciting players to watch on the football field in 2010.  I had been anticipating his debut since he was recruited, but his slight frame (he was listed at only 283 lbs. last season) made it seem as if he was still a year or two away from being ready for Big Ten football.  When he got on the field, though, it was clear that he belonged.  For the first time in the Rich Rodriguez era, it seemed that an offensive tackle was on the field because he was good and not just because there weren't any other options.  Between driving linemen and linebackers downfield, Lewan did struggle with false starts that occurred a bit too frequently; however, Lewan gave Michigan fans high hopes for what might be coming in the next few seasons.

Now that part-time starter Perry Dorrestein has graduated, Lewan's importance to the team has increased dramatically.  The starter on the opposite side looks like it will be Mark Huyge, a serviceable but nondescript lineman.  After that the depth chart goes to redshirt sophomore Michael Schofield, who has barely played, and then a bunch of walk-ons.  With fragile superstar quarterback Denard Robinson setting up in the pocket, it's imperative that Lewan and Co. keep him healthy.  Big #77 put on approximately 20 lbs. in the offseason and while he probably doesn't have the name recognition or team profile to warrant many accolades this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see him contend for All-America honors in the years to come.

Prediction: Starting left tackle; Second Team All-Big Ten

2011 Countdown: #5 David Molk

David Molk (#50) and Taylor Lewan
(image via AnnArbor.com)

Name: David Molk
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 286 lbs.
High school: Lemont High School in Lemont Township, IL
Position: Center
Class: Redshirt senior
Jersey number: #50
Last year: I ranked Molk #1 and said he would be the starting center.  He started every game at center.

I hate to think about how bad Michigan could have been over the past three seasons if Lloyd Carr hadn't recruited Molk to Ann Arbor back in 2007.  Molk has started since his redshirt freshman season in 2008, and the only things that have beaten him have been foot and knee injuries suffered in 2009 that cost him eight games.  Otherwise, he was a rock for the zone running system implemented by Rich Rodriguez starting in '08. Molk has often been mentioned as the strongest offensive lineman on the team; that title was briefly stolen by Quinton Washington, who has since moved to defensive tackle.  Regardless, Molk complemented that strength with enough intelligence and quickness to be recognized as a first team All-Big Ten center by the conference's coaches and was a finalist for the Rimington Award, which is given to the nation's top center.

Molk isn't necessarily the ideal center for the power running game that new head coach Brady Hoke wants to implement at Michigan (think of someone who's 6'4", 310 lbs.), but you can bet that Hoke will enjoy Molk's presence while he's giving it one last hurrah for the Maize and Blue.  His strength will prevent him from being a detriment on power plays, and his quickness will continue to be an asset while offensive coordinator Al Borges looks to be in the early stages of phasing out the heavy reliance on the zone running game.  Molk will spearhead an offensive line that returns four starters (the lone new starter will likely be left guard Ricky Barnum) and the five average out to be in their 4th year of major college football.  The five have 67 starts among them, tied for 10th in the country in sacks allowed (11) last season, and paved the way for the #13 rushing offense (3,101 yards).  If games are won in the trenches, consider the offensive battle to be a likely victory.

Prediction: Starting offensive center; Second Team All-Big Ten

2011 Countdown: #6 Kevin Koger

Kevin Koger (#86)

Name: Kevin Koger
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 258 lbs.
High school: Whitmer High School in Toledo, OH
Position: Tight end
Class: Senior
Jersey number: #86
Last year: I ranked Koger #20 and said he would have 18 receptions for 250 yards and 4 touchdowns.  He caught 14 passes for 199 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Koger is that rare (soon to be) four-year starter at tight end.  Having been recruited by Lloyd Carr, he probably expected to be utilized like a Michigan tight end of old, grab 25-30 passes as an upperclassman, and move on to a journeyman NFL career.  Instead, he averaged 12 receptions and about 170 yards a season under Rich Rodriguez.  There was all kinds of scuttlebutt in the Rodriguez years that his coaching staff visited Oklahoma and got some tips on how to utilize the tight end in the spread offense, but the bottom line was that Rodriguez never used the tight end much at West Virginia and didn't see a need to do it at Michigan, either.  So Koger was underused and became a glorified walk-on fullback, albeit one who can make maddeningly athletic catches before disappearing for long stretches and/or dropping a couple passes in between.

Now Koger enters his senior season with a coaching staff that seems to appreciate the tight end a little bit more.  Rumors out of August practices even indicate that Koger could end up being the player the offense targets most, that he might go from an afterthought to a primary target.  I have a hard time imagining such a drastic change for a player who has been exciting, frustrating, and underused so far in his career, but it's very probable that we see an uptick in Koger's production in his final year.  The Borges/Hoke offense at San Diego State last season had a freshman tight end, Gavin Escobar, who finished the season with 29 receptions for 323 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Considering that Escobar was 6'6", 230 lbs., and a true freshman, I have to think that Koger will squeeze some better numbers out of Michigan's offense.  He ought to be the beneficiary of some waggles and bootlegs, not to mention a downfield threat on some quarterback play action much like (a slower) Roy Roundtree circa 2010.

Prediction: Starting tight end; 35 receptions, 420 yards, 5 touchdowns

Poll results: You people finally guessed correctly - Koger got 73% of the votes for the #6 slot, while Taylor Lewan got 16%.

2011 Countdown: #7 Patrick Omameh

Patrick Omameh

Name: Patrick Omameh
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 299 lbs.
High school: St. Francis DeSales High School in Columbus, OH
Position: Offensive guard
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #65
Last year: I ranked Omameh #19 and said he would be the starter at right guard.  He started all 13 games at right guard.

Omameh was an under-the-radar recruit coming out of Columbus DeSales in 2008, and credit should be given to Rich Rodriguez for seeing how much talent he had.  Omameh was quite slim as a senior in high school, but it only took him until his redshirt freshman season to play - and play well - on the offensive line.  He has the athleticism to start at any of the guard and tackle positions, and he looks like a brick wall.  Last year's big play out of Omameh was the one on which he sprung Denard Robinson for his 87-yard touchdown gallop against Notre Dame, but that was just one of many nice blocks that Omameh made on the season.  He did an excellent job of getting to the second level, and when Michigan ran power last season, he was excellent at pulling and leading for Robinson.



This season's scheme ought to suit Omameh well.  While he's superb at blocking in space, he also has the technique and the mass to be a powerful in-line blocker.  Add that to his pass blocking ability, and he might end up being Michigan's best interior lineman since David Baas.  I see very few weaknesses in Omameh's game, and he should be a key player in 2011 as Brady Hoke and Al Borges work both the zone and power run games.  He has a shot to be an All-Big Ten player this season.

Prediction: Starting right guard; All-Big Ten Second Team

Poll results: Kevin Koger got 51% of the vote, while Omameh was second with 38%.

2011 Countdown: #8 Junior Hemingway

Junior Hemingway (#21) runs away from Mississippi State's Disgusting Shin Man

Name: Junior Hemingway
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 222 lbs.
High school: Conway High School in Conway, SC
Position: Wide receiver
Class: Redshirt senior
Jersey number: #21
Last year: I ranked Hemingway #26 and said he would make 25 receptions for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns.  He caught 32 passes for 593 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Well, I was close to being right on the number of receptions, and I was exactly correct about the touchdowns.  Where I missed big-time was on the yardage.  Michigan's Denard Robinson's running game opened up some deep throws for the Wolverines in 2010, and Hemingway took advantage whenever Robinson threw the ball in his vicinity.  Hemingway caught a slant against Indiana and rambled to the endzone (he's not blessed with great speed), and he also outjumped a Hoosiers defensive back for a 42-yard reception at the end of the game, which set up the game-winning play.  Perhaps his biggest highlight was the 45-yard catch and run against Illinois, in which he shimmied and shook on the sideline until the Illini defensive backs flailed miserably as he slipped past them down the sideline.  Things were about as exciting as they could get for a receiver who had less than 600 yards and only four scores.

Hemingway is poised to expand on that production here in 2011.  Michigan will still run plenty of plays from spread formations, but when the Wolverines get into the I-formation or split backs, Hemingway should see plenty of throws coming his way.  Whereas the other wideout, Roy Roundtree, might be hampered by his lack of size as he moves out of the slot, Hemingway is more familiar with playing outside and will still be bigger and stronger than the cornerbacks covering him.  His ability to go up for jump balls and shield defenders from passes should serve him well.  Hemingway might not be the next great receiver in the mold of Braylon Edwards, David Terrell, etc., but he should be a very solid target for Denard Robinson.

Prediction: 70 receptions, 1000 yards, 7 touchdowns

Poll results: Kevin Koger got 40% of the vote while Patrick Omameh got 27% and Hemingway finished third with 21%.

2011 Countdown: #9 Troy Woolfolk

Defensive back Troy Woolfolk with his father, former Michigan running back Butch
(image via DetNews.com)

Name: Troy Woolfolk
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 191 lbs.
High school: Dulles High School in Sugar Land, TX
Position: Cornerback
Class: Redshirt senior
Jersey number: #29
Last year: I ranked Woolfolk at #2.  But by the time I got to that ranking, he had already dislocated his ankle and been declared unable to play.

Thank goodness Woolfolk is back.  With the overall lack of speed and athleticism in the defensive backfield, he will be a welcome sight on September 3.  Last year I was expecting big things from the kid, and he had an unfortunate practice incident that caused his senior season to be delayed.  That absence meant that the cornerback positions were left to senior James Rogers and redshirt sophomore J.T. Floyd, neither of whom was particularly impressive; Floyd suffered an ankle injury halfway through the season that forced true freshman Courtney Avery into starting action, too.  By the end of the year, Michigan was starting cornerbacks #3 and #4 on the pre-season depth chart.  Rogers played admirably with 40 tackles and 3 picks, Floyd made 66 tackles and 1 interception, and Avery made 36 tackles, but getting 4 interceptions out of your cornerbacks - not to mention oodles of completions in front of them - was hard to watch.

Woolfolk has been earning praise this August for his off-season preparation and his knowledge of the defense, despite being unable to practice full speed in the spring.  Comments from defensive coordinator Greg Mattison and head coach Brady Hoke suggest that Woolfolk will be a starter in the defensive backfield on September 3.  But once again, his position has been muddied.  Michigan technically has three returning starters at the cornerback position with Woolfolk, Floyd, and Avery; meanwhile, only Jordan Kovacs has started at a safety spot (Carvin Johnson started a few games last year, but as a hybrid outside linebacker).  If the Wolverines want to get their best four defensive backs on the field, that might be a combination of Floyd and Avery at cornerback with Woolfolk and Kovacs at safety.  Whether he's at safety or cornerback, I'm guessing Woolfolk will be Michigan's best defensive back.

Prediction: Starting cornerback; 45 tackles, 2 interceptions

Poll Results: You guys really disagreed with me here.  Woolfolk only got 7% of the votes, while Koger (51%), Omameh (20%), and Hemingway (17%) all had more.

2011 Countdown: #10 Ryan Van Bergen

Ryan Van Bergen

Name: Ryan Van Bergen
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 288 lbs.
High school: Whitehall High School in Whitehall, MI
Position: Defensive end
Class: Redshirt senior
Jersey number: #53
Last year: I ranked Van Bergen #6 and said he would have 55 tackles and 7.5 sacks.  He had 37 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, and 1 pass breakup.

I'll be honest - I didn't expect Michigan to run quite so much of the 3-3-5 last season.  I thought it would be run only sometimes, and I assumed the Wolverines would blitz out of it.  Eh . . . not so much.  So for much of the season, Van Bergen was one of three rushers who made valiant but futile efforts to get to the quarterback.  Without another down lineman or blitzers to draw attention away from the starting three, Van Bergen and his cohorts were constantly double-teamed and chipped by running backs.  Production across the whole defensive line was down.  Consider that in 2009, the four defensive linemen averaged 48 tackles and 4.9 sacks.  In 2010 those averages dropped to 37.3 tackles and 3.2 sacks for the trio of Van Bergen, Mike Martin, and Greg Banks.  But hey, at least Michigan's strong safety had 116 tackles.

Van Bergen ought to see an uptick in his production as a senior this season.  Defensive coordinator Greg Mattison has pronounced that Michigan will blitz, and with four defensive linemen already on the field, we should see Michigan's sack totals leap significantly.  From 2006-2010, Michigan's sack totals dropped from 43 to 33 to 29 to 22 to 18.  Even if one discounts the 2006 team that had so many stars (LaMarr Woodley, David Harris, Alan Branch, Shawn Crable, etc.), those totals in 2007 and 2008 are still satisfactory.  But 18? Yikes.  Van Bergen should benefit from the change in defensive philosophy.  While he'll line up on the strong side and face double-teams from a tackle and tight end on run plays, pass plays ought to give him a little more freedom to get a rush than he had last year.  Combined with more pressure from the backside and some blitzing linebackers, I'm going to predict the exact same thing that I did last year.

Prediction: Starting strongside defensve end; 55 tackles, 7.5 sacks

Poll Results: Patrick Omameh got 43% of the votes for the #10 slot, while Van Bergen got 30%

2011 Countdown: #11 Roy Roundtree

Roy Roundtree

Name: Roy Roundtree
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 177 lbs.
High school: Trotwood-Madison High School in Trotwood, OH
Position: Slot receiver/wide receiver
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #12
Last year: I ranked Roundtree #9 and said he would start at slot receiver, catch 60 passes for 900 yards, and score 8 touchdowns.  He had 72 catches for 935 yards and 7 touchdowns.

Going into last season, I thought Roundtree was going to continue where he left off at the end of 2009, when he turned into Tate Forcier's favorite target.  And he did.  From his slot receiver position, Roundtree led the team in receptions, yardage, and touchdowns.  While he was wide open fairly often due to quarterback Denard Robinson's run fakes, the things that made him so effective were his route running and his sneaky quickness.  The kid has been less than 180 pounds for his entire career, but he knows how to get open and he makes people miss after the catch.  Roundtree isn't a typical Rich Rodriguez slot receiver because he's not 5'8" and doesn't have instantaneous acceleration, but while it looks like he'll be easy to take down, he now has four receptions of 70+ yards in his career.  For comparison's sake, consider that Braylon Edwards, Marquise Walker, David Terrell, Derrick Alexander, Desmond Howard, and Anthony Carter had three career receptions of 70+ yards . . . combined.

Now that it's 2011 and a new offense has come to Ann Arbor, I'm expecting a plateau for Roundtree. The year-long suspension of Darryl Stonum means that Michigan needs Roundtree on the outside, where the mismatches won't be quite so apparent.  He won't be able to get open quite so easily against cornerbacks as he was against linebackers and safeties.  Additionally, I don't think the new offense will be quite so friendly to Denard Robinson, who might struggle with a pro-style offense.  The team will run plenty of spread formations, but unless Roundtree moves into the slot when they go to the spread, the likely beneficiaries will be slot receivers like Martavious Odoms and Jeremy Gallon.

Prediction: Starting wide receiver; 65 receptions, 850 yards, 7 touchdowns

2011 Countdown: #12 Carvin Johnson

Carvin Johnson

Name: Carvin Johnson
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 200 lbs.
High school: Rummel High School in Metairie, LA
Position: Strong safety
Class: Sophomore
Jersey number: #13
Last year: I ranked Johnson #67 and said he would redshirt.  He started 3 games at outside linebacker and had 18 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 pass breakup.

Johnson's role on the 2010 team was a little bit mysterious to me.  As a true freshman, he came in and immediately started at a position that he hadn't played in high school; as a 195-pounder he was playing outside linebacker on a team that had more physically ready players at the position, such as redshirt freshman Thomas Gordon (23 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 2 sacks).  Meanwhile, the team was experimenting with tiny freshmen like Courtney Avery and Terrence Talbott at safety.  Johnson's starting role was somewhat short-lived, however, once he hurt his shoulder in the opener against Connecticut and missed the next three games.  He returned and played sporadically for the rest of the season, most notably notching 6 tackles against Mississippi State on New Year's Day, but his debut season was largely forgettable for fans.

Then came the spring.  By the time April rolled around, Johnson was earning rave reviews from practice observers and after the spring game.  He turned a couple bad throws in the spring game and turned them into excellent interceptions and generally looked like the ballhawking safety that Michigan has been lacking for the last several years.  He even had decent enough speed to hunt down Denard Robinson on a long run, something we haven't been able to say for a Michigan safety in a while.  With Marvin Robinson struggling to stick with assignments, Josh Furman looking uncomfortable in open space, and Jordan Kovacs somewhat limited athletically, Johnson has set himself apart as a near lock to start in the defensive backfield and could perhaps be an All-Big Ten performer by the time he graduates.

Prediction: 55 tackles, 3 interceptions

2011 Countdown: #13 Jordan Kovacs

Jordan Kovacs has crazy eyes

Name: Jordan Kovacs
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 197 lbs.
High school: Clay High School in Curtice, OH
Position: Strong safety
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #32
Last year: I ranked Kovacs #21 and said he would start at bandit and make 70 tackles.  He had 116 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 pass breakup.

Some might look at Kovacs' 116 tackles in 2010 and think "Wow, he's really good."  Others might say, "Wow, the defensive front seven must have sucked for a safety to make that many tackles."  The truthfulness of those statements is "sort of" and "yep."  Michigan's defense was atrocious last season, and it all started with the front seven.  Between linemen who couldn't get any penetration, poor linebacker play, youthfulness, and a shoddy defensive philosophy, Kovacs found himself cleaning up the mess more often than anyone wanted (except opposing offensive coordinators).  He had 10+ tackles in six games last season, including a 17-tackle effort in the 37-7 loss (since wiped from OSU history) to the Buckeyes.  Unlike what we're used to seeing at Michigan from guys like Charles Woodson, Brandon Graham, Shawn Crable, and others, Kovacs' most amazing plays don't stem from superior athleticism.  Rather than a burst of speed or a crushingly hard hit, there's Kovacs instantly reading a play action pass and sticking to his TE coverage.  There's Kovacs reading a deep pass from an Indiana quarterback and jumping in the way to knock it down.  There's Kovacs watching the quarterback's eyes and jumping in front of a pass from the Ohio State quarterback before the end of the half.

We all love Kovacs for those plays and his 116 tackles, despite not being very big or very fast.  And yet . . . we yearn for more.  I couldn't help but lament his lack of speed when he intercepted OSU quarterback Terrelle Pryor at the end of the half and returned it only 41 yards when it looked as if most defensive backs with decent speed could have taken it to the house.  If that happened, the nameless and speedy defensive back could have made it a 24-14 game going into the half, with Michigan down only 10 and momentum on their side.  Unfortunately, the return fizzled out and the Wolverines suffered the embarrassing, 30-point defeat.

And that's the difference between Jordan Kovacs and the Ideal Strong Safety.  It's not that a good strong safety can typically win a game all by himself.  It's not that Kovacs is a bad player.  After all, he was a Freshman All-American in 2009 and an All-Big Ten Honorable Mention in 2010.  It's just that he lacks that extra burst or change of direction that would make us say, "Holy s***" instead of "Can we amputate his head and put it on Justin Turner's body?"

Going into the 2011 season, Kovacs might face a battle from young safeties Marvin Robinson and Josh Furman for the chance to start in the defensive backfield.  Kovacs has experience and intelligence on his side, but Robinson has the hitting ability (and a little bit of speed) and Furman has the speed to be difference makers back there.  It's hard to imagine a redshirt junior with two years of starting (and 191 tackles) under his belt getting benched in favor of a sophomore or redshirt freshman who has, comparatively, accomplished approximately nothing.  But at some point, Michigan has to get back to creating oohs and aahs out of its defensive players, and not just what-ifs.

Prediction: Starting safety; 75 tackles

Countdown to Kickoff: Day 17

2011 Countdown: #14 Will Hagerup

This is Will Hagerup's crowning achievement: getting his picture taken with Erin Andrews.

Name: Will Hagerup
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 225 lbs.
High school: Whitefish Bay High School in Milwaukee, WI
Position: Punter
Class: Sophomore
Jersey number: #43
Last year: I ranked Hagerup #15 and said he would be the starting punter.  He started at punter in 10 games and had 33 punts for 1,440 yards (43.64 yards/punt).  He also was the kickoff specialist in 5 games and had 2 touchbacks.

Hagerup came in last season and immediately took over the starting punter role after Zoltan Mesko had graduated.  Hagerup had an excellent first season, finishing with the second-best yards-per-punt average in Michigan football history.  Michigan fans quickly forgot about Mesko and hopped on the Hagerup bandwagon, even though his name isn't quite as cool and he's clearly not as smart as Mesko.

Why do I say that?  Well, Hagerup will begin his sophomore season watching from the sidelines now that he's been suspended for a second time in his two-year career.  He served a one-game suspension for the Ohio State game last November due to breaking team rules, and a separate incident has caused him to be suspended for the first four games of 2011 (Western Michigan, Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan, and San Diego State).  That leaves Michigan with the somewhat scary proposition of starting freshman placekicker Matt Wile (who averaged 41 yards a punt in the Army All American Bowl) or redshirt sophomore walk-on placekicker Seth Broekhuizen (who averaged 28.7 yards a punt in three chances last season).  Of Hagerup's first 17 chances to kick a football in front of millions of people, he'll only be available for 12 of them because he can't follow team rules.

Hagerup was the Big Ten's fourth-best punter last season, and the top three guys (MSU's Aaron Bates, Illinois' Anthony Santella, and Iowa's Ryan Donahue) all graduated.  When he returns for the last two-thirds of the season, he has a good chance to be the Big Ten's best punter.  Last season 30% of his punts went 50+ yards and 33% of them were pinned inside the 20-yard line.  Those numbers will almost certainly drop significantly in the first four weeks while Broekhuizen and Wile battle to replace him.  How much that affects the team remains to be seen, since two of the four games should be easy wins, one moderately difficult, and the Notre Dame game a toss-up.  But at this rate, Hagerup is turning into a punter's version of Stephen Garcia, and that's not a good thing.  Regardless, when Hagerup returns to action for the Minnesota game and beyond, he ought to be the best punter in the conference.

2011 Countdown: #15 William Campbell

Teric Jones (gone), Thomas Gordon (here), William Campbell (here), Boubacar Cissoko (jailed)

Name: William Campbell
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 322 lbs.
High school: Cass Technical High School in Detroit, MI
Position: Defensive tackle
Class: Junior
Jersey number: #73
Last year: I ranked Campbell #29 and said he would be the backup nose tackle.  He was a backup NT (1 tackle, 1 pass breakup) for the first half of the season before switching to offensive guard and sitting on the bench.

Now for the curious case of William Campbell, the former 5-star defensive tackle who has made two position switches and barely played at either one.  As a freshman in 2009, Campbell inexplicably played defensive tackle despite a) not being very good at it and b) having upperclassmen around him who could have just as easily taken those snaps.  But there he was, getting pancaked or walled off and making a whopping 4 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and 2 pass breakups throughout the year.  He should have been a redshirt freshman in 2010, when he had a lone tackle before being planted on the bench as a 6'5" offensive guard.  Campbell had a hard time playing with leverage, which is admittedly a tough thing to do when you're a 6'5" nose tackle (notice that the new coaching staff recruited the 6'3" Ondre Pipkins for NT and continue to pursue the 6'2" Danny O'Brien), which is yet another reason that the switch to a 3-3-5 was ridiculous.

So here we are in 2011.  Campbell is a junior (instead of a redshirt sophomore).  He's been playing nose tackle (instead of 3-tech defensive tackle) for 1.5 years and offensive guard (instead of 3-tech defensive tackle) for half a year.  When the new coaching staff was hired, they immediately put him back at defensive line and said, "This is what you're going to do, and we're going to coach you up until you do it well."  Campbell was 342 lbs. in the spring and, according to Brady Hoke, slimmed down to 316-319 by August.  At times he looked dominant in the spring, and at other times he just looked okay.  Facing single blocking from opposing offensive guards (who are likely lighter and less athletic than Campbell) he ought to be able to disrupt opponents' backfields on a regular basis.  With the pass rushing ability of Craig Roh on one side, the quick and strong Mike Martin on the other, and the well rounded Van Bergen at strongside end - not to mention improved coaching, focus, and conditioning - Campbell seems poised for a breakout season in 2011.

Prediction: 40 tackles, 3 sacks

2011 Countdown: #16 Ricky Barnum

Ricky Barnum (#56)

Name: Ricky Barnum
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 292 lbs.
High school: Lake Gibson High School in Lakeland, FL
Position: Offensive line
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #56
Last year: I ranked Barnum #48 and said he would be a backup offensive guard.  He substituted at guard in 2 games and at tackle in 1 game.

Barnum was a highly touted recruit coming out of high school in 2008.  His role in college so far has been somewhat limited, partly by injuries and partly by four-year starter Stephen Schilling, who has since moved on to the San Diego Chargers.  Another issue has been size - in three seasons he hasn't been heavier than 282 lbs., which will change this year.  Additionally, Barnum played offensive tackle in high school and has practiced at four different positions in college: both guard spots, left tackle, and center.  Those are a lot of things to overcome, but now he's a redshirt junior and has been running with the first unit since the spring.

Barnum is a good pass blocker with excellent feet.  He's lower to the ground than most defensive linemen, which allows him to keep leverage, but he's quite undersized for a Big Ten offensive guard.  Head coach Brady Hoke would like to return to a power running game at Michigan, but that might be difficult with a front five that's somewhat lacking in size.  Even the biggest of the bunch is barely over 300 lbs.  Due to the lack of size up front and a quarterback who excelled in the spread offense last season, it seems that Michigan might be headed for more of a spread look than Hoke wants people to believe.  If that's the case, then Barnum should be a decent fit at left guard.  But if Hoke lines up and wants to play smash-mouth football game after game, the lack of size on the interior might prove quite daunting.  The Wolverines can still run power like Hoke insists they'll do because he has two guards (the other being Patrick Omameh) who move extremely well, but expect to see more finesse than the road graders you've seen in Michigan's highlight films from the '90s and early '00s.

Prediction: Starting left guard

2011 Countdown: #17 Craig Roh

Craig Roh (#88)

Name: Craig Roh
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 269 lbs.
High school: Chaparral High School in Scottsdale, AZ
Position: Weakside end
Class: Junior
Jersey number: #88
Last year: I ranked Roh #8 and said he would have 45 tackles and 7 sacks.  He started at OLB and DE at various times, finishing with 43 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 1/2 a sack, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 pass breakup.

Well, I overshot on Roh's sack total by about 6.5 sacks.  Like everything that's happened over the last three seasons, I blame the coaches.  Roh played outside linebacker for the first eight weeks of the season in a 3-3-5 defense, one in which he rarely rushed the passer and often found himself in coverage.  Who takes a 6'5", high school superstar of a pass rusher and turns him into an outside linebacker in a 3-3-5?  Anyone besides Rich Rodriguez and Greg Robinson?  Probably not.  Things got so bad in 2010 that Roh and his father reportedly threatened to transfer schools if the coaches didn't put him back at his natural defensive end position.  Whether that story is true or not, Roh was at defensive end by the Illinois game on November 6.  Roh showed plenty of promise as a freshman, when he had 2 sacks among 37 tackles and looked like a future star at the defensive end position; now he returns to that weakside end spot with about 35 more pounds on his frame than he had as a freshman in 2009.

Roh was being pushed by sophomore defensive end Jibreel Black in the spring, but recent comments by the coaches suggest that Black didn't come back in August as advanced as they had hoped.  It seems that the weakside end position is Roh's to lose now, whereas there were some questions back in April.  I have always thought highly of Roh, going back to the 2009 recruiting cycle, when I said he would be the best overall recruit in his class.  Now that he has a coaching staff who presumably know how to use a defensive end, we should see Roh take a leap forward after his sophomore slump.  In the 4-3 Under defense, he should see plenty of one-on-one matchups with opposing offensive tackles or even the occasional running back.  And instead of seeing meager sack totals from Michigan's defensive ends (1/2 for Roh last season, 4 for Van Bergen), we ought to see them notch about 10 total between the two end spots.

Prediction: Starting weakside end; 50 tackles, 6 sacks

2011 Countdown: #18 Martavious Odoms

Martavious Odoms

Name: Martavious Odoms
Height: 5'8"
Weight: 173 lbs.
High school: Pahokee High School in Pahokee, FL
Position: Slot receiver/wide receiver
Class: Senior
Jersey number: #9
Last year: I ranked Odoms #16 and said he would start at slot receiver, catch 35 passes for 420 yards, and score 2 touchdowns.  He started 3 games but missed the second half of the regular season with a broken foot.  He finished with 16 receptions for 241 yards and 1 touchdown.  He also had 8 kickoff returns for 180 yards.

I think Michigan fans can all agree that we love us some Martavious Odoms.  The man love started when he ran head first into a middle linebacker to block for Denard Robinson's electrifying first play as a collegian and continued through his game-clinching touchdown catch from Tate Forcier in the 2009 Indiana game.  Before that he was just a fumble-prone punt/kickoff returner with occasional highlights like his 2008 punt return for a touchdown against Purdue.  Unfortunately, Odoms has started piling up injuries, missing one, three, and six games in the last three seasons, respectively.  At that rate we can expect Odoms to miss ten games in 2011, but I hope not.  He's a tough player with a little bit of a burst, and his blocking is second to none from the wide receiver position.

The move to more of a pro-style offense this year suggests that Odoms will see a slightly diminished role.  He was on pace to catch 30-plus balls last year, but those will be harder to come by in 2011.  Michigan will likely run more I-formation plays (something that was all but abandoned last season), and the two outside wide receivers look to be Junior Hemingway and Roy Roundtree.  Odoms has been running with the first group as a slot receiver, and he might pick up where Roy Roundtree left off out of spread formations.  With Darryl Stonum redshirting this season and only one viable returner in the form of Drew Dileo, it would be nice if Odoms could also contribute on the return units, where he has averaged 22.1 yards a return in his career.

Prediction: Starting slot receiver; 25 receptions, 300 yards, 2 touchdowns