For the last few years, I've been putting together ratings for Michigan's commitments. When coming up with a rating, I generally try to picture how the player will fit into Michigan's scheme and depth chart. Certain wide receivers might be all-conference at one school but second-stringers at another. Here's a link to the explanation of the ratings. I reserve the right to change these ratings throughout the recruiting cycle, but here's where Michigan's current four commits will start:
OG Mason Cole: 87 (commitment post)
LB Michael Ferns III: 83 (commitment post)
DT Bryan Mone: 79 (commitment post)
QB Wilton Speight: 77 (commitment post)
Some pretty good ratings. I didn't think you'd be that high on Speight. Do you think the recruiting sites will bump up Cole if they all rate him at guard?
ReplyDeleteI'm not really sure. He's not an ideal tackle, so they should bump him up. But who knows?
DeleteAlso, Speight has a couple good quarterbacks ahead of him (Gardner, Morris). If Michigan can wait a few years before putting him on the field, then he might be a decent quarterback as an upperclassman.
DeleteWhy the drop from 85-83 with Ferns? Based on your commitment write up on Mone I would have guessed his rating at 80-83.
ReplyDeleteI've read recently that Ferns is more likely to play MIKE, and I like him better at SAM. I really like Mone, but he's slated to play nose tackle. Nose tackle is a little more difficult to rack up big numbers and get a lot of recognition (defensive ends and 3-techs get the hype), which accounts for the rating.
DeleteI can understand why you would drop Ferns because you think he is better suited to a different position than the one he is expected to play. But dropping Mone because he is expected to play a position where it's difficult to gain recognition seems kind of questionable to me. It seems to me that people come to blogs like this precisely because the writers don't get all caught up in the usual hype and stats (I know I do). If a NT is getting penetration or is drawing double-teams that enable teammates to make plays, that NT might not get hype and recognition from the ESPNs of the world but I would think his efforts would be appreciated at blogs like this one.
DeleteIf you look at the rationale behind the rankings, all-conference and NFL potential are mixed in. The bottom line is that it's tougher to get recognition for those things if you're a space-eating nose tackle than a 3-tech who makes a bunch of sacks and TFL's.
DeleteI was reading through your ratings explanation and you state 100 is "best player at his position in the country". I have a couple questions:
ReplyDeleteDo you give a 100 each year for every position? Or is it reserved for a select number of elite prospects? Also, can a position produce two 100 prospects (for example, Nkemdiche and Chris Jones, if you think they are both 100-level defensive ends).
Based on your comment above about Mone, it seems like you base part of the ranking on positional recognition. So the best center or fullback in the country may only hit somewhere in the 80s?
I would only give a player 100 if he's the best player at his position in the entire country. So far I haven't doled out a 100 rating to any Michigan commit during the time I've been ranking prospects. I might give Nkemdiche and Jones 100 ratings because they could very well end up playing two different spots - strongside end and weakside end, respectively.
DeleteYou are correct that centers and fullbacks will almost automatically be prevented from reaching the higher levels of rankings (just as they are for Rivals, Scout, etc.) because they hold less value than other positions.
Why so low on Mone? 79 seems kind of meh, and the guy looks incredible. He's 314 pounds as a junior, agile enough to rush the passer as a defensive end, and he's not carrying much bad weight at 314. He doesn't look like a guy who's raw on technique and requires a lot of coaching to unlock potential either. Is his high school competition weak?
ReplyDeleteThe rationale is explained above in the comments section.
DeleteI'm not sure that I get it. There are a lot of positions that don't allow a player to rack up stats or big plays. Free safety and offensive line included. If you are playing at one of those positions on a passing play, it's practically your job not to get noticed. And wouldn't Mone be playing the same position as Will Carr and Mike Martin? Both of those guys were noticeable impact players whose careers easily justified a high recruiting ranking.
DeleteMoney should be higher.
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