RETURNING PLAYERS: Davis Warren (RS Sr.), Jadyn Davis (RS Fr.)
NEWCOMERS: Mikey Keene (RS Sr.), Bryce Underwood (Fr.)
DEPARTURES: Anthony Arnou (transfer portal), Jayden Denegal (transfer to San Diego State), Alex Orji (transfer to UNLV), Jack Tuttle (graduation/retirement)
OUTLOOK: Davis Warren started for the majority of the season in 2024, but to say it was a disappointing campaign would be an understatement. There were times when Warren was a turnover machine, and even though he cleaned things up a little bit down the stretch, there were some glaringly bad plays against Ohio State in the regular season finale. He completed 64.1% of his passes but for just 5.7 yards per attempt, 7 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions on the season. Still, he was at the helm for the upset win over the Buckeyes and started the ReliaQuest Bowl win against Alabama. Unfortunately, his torn ACL suffered in the bowl game will keep him out of spring participation.
That leaves Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene and true freshman early enrollee Bryce Underwood as the likely starters for each side in the spring game. Keene is a fifth year senior who has starting experience at UCF and Fresno State, including time spent at UCF under new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey. Altogether, Keene has completed 67.8% of his career passes for 8,245 yards, 65 touchdowns, and 28 interceptions. Last year he was at 70.5% completions for 2,892 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. He's a functional game manager who can handle short to intermediate throws, but he has a relatively weak arm and isn't much of a runner; he might be able to have a 2021 Cade McNamara-like performance if the offensive line and running game can hold up.
The phenom and wild card is Bryce Underwood. Underwood was an LSU commit for a long time before flipping to Michigan late in the early signing period. Much has been made of the NIL deal he received, but regardless, he's ranked as the #1 overall player in the country for 2025. He completed 71.8% of his passes as a senior, throwing for 2,509 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions; he also ran for more than 600 yards and scored 6 rushing touchdowns. At somewhere in the neighborhood of 6'3" and 215 pounds, he has the arm strength and speed to be a dynamic player. There are always growing pains for freshmen, so the biggest question mark is how quickly he downloads the playbook.
Just like in Any Given Sunday, Keene is the savvy veteran (Dennis Quaid) and Underwood is the ultra-talented young buck (Jamie Foxx). Michigan has two intriguing options going into spring ball, and it will be interesting to see who looks more ready to run the offense once April comes.
I think it's for the best that Warren is out for the spring as he should not factor into the starting conversation in 2025. If he is, Michigan is in bad shape.
ReplyDeleteWarren's passer rating in November was still a lowly 108. In the last 3 games of 2024 he still threw 3 INT in 63 pass attempts - 1 ever 21 passes. This is better than the first 3 games, granted, but still quite bad. For comparison -- Joe Milton in 2020 threw 4 in 141 pass attempts (1 ever 35 passes) and was widely criticized for being inaccurate and turnover prone. Meanwhile Warren didn't even attempt to throw downfield by seasons end and still turned the ball over at a much high rate. Even at his best, Warren was still very VERY bad. No thanks to another season of no downfield passing and high turnover rate.
I think Keene is clearly a more talented option as well as a more proven one. I think he's better than McNamara too. But yeah, Keene's not an NFL caliber player, so the ceiling is limited with him. Underwood is going to be the guy everyone is watching.
We'll see if the hype is warranted or if he's Shane Morris 2.0. Readiness as a freshman is one issue - not being a bust is another.
Sounds like Jadyn Davis is the third guy in the mix according to our OC. Would be surprise given how far away he was as a freshman but development isn't always linear.
My 13 year old teases my 10 year old that he is "too short" to do various things that have nothing to do with height and that just reminded me of Thunder's Jadyn Davis take LOL. Keene is 5'11 also so we'll get a couple opportunities to test this QB theory.
I mean, we'll see about Jadyn Davis. I don't think there's anyone who expects him to start this season. If he's the third guy, his starting would require something to happen to the first two.
DeleteAs for Mikey Keene, yeah, he's short and might start...and that's only after Michigan struck out on Miller Moss (6'2"), Billy Edwards (6'3"), and others. Clearly, they preferred taller players and settled on Keene.
I agree that Keene was a settle. I don't think it's clear that height was the issue being settled upon though. Jake Rudock and Jon Navarre and Jack Tuttle and Jadyn Denegal were also QBs where Michigan had to settle (relative to better possible options), but they were pretty tall.
DeleteDavis and McNamara were recent priority recruits under Harbaugh and are only a bit taller (6'1) than Keene (5'11). So again, I think it's making more out of height than it is in practice. Moore has talked about it as a priority at WR but not QB.
I agree Davis is probably #3 to start the year but if Keene is really that limited (by his height, arm strength, or anything else), you'd think a consensus top 10 national QB recruit might be stepping up as he enters his sophomore year. If not to start the season at least you'd expect some closing of the gap towards the end of the season. But yeah, we'll have to see. The freshman year was exceedingly quiet for such a high rated recruit given the ineptitude shown by the 3 guys ahead of him.
I maybe more optimistic on both Keene and Davis than some, but I do hope that is a moot point and Underwood is all that he is hyped to be.
I would rate the QB position a B-, with potential of being upgraded higher depending on how well Underwood plays. At the very least with Mikey Keene, we have a dependable starter (probably still in the bottom half of Big Ten QB ranking). I hope we start hearing great things about Underwood in spring training.
ReplyDeleteI predict we'll hear that all the QBs are showing great promise, and "it's a real competition" and all that. But it's not really: Keene was brought in to be the floor, and Underwood is the horse the program plans to ride. Jadyn Davis will probably portal out after this year.
DeleteBryce Underwood is a significantly more accurate passer than was Shane Morris. The problem with that statement of course is that it is an almost perfect definition of damnation by faint praise.
ReplyDeleteHe is a bunch bigger and stronger than was freshman JJ McCarthy, as he is within a pound or two of 23 year old JJ McCarthy. And while this is football and the single worst thing in football is injuries, he should prove to be harder to break than JJ. I was terribly anxious typing the previous sentence out of respect for the jinx, so if this all goes wrong, it's probably fair to blame me.
If it's me, Keene is being groomed for doodoo happening, I'm living with freshman mistakes with my eye on the prize.
I suspect this is mostly what we'll see ... Keene will probably start the first game, and when the game is in hand -- may it be so -- we'll see Jadyn Davis and Underwood brought in to hand off the ball and maybe do some low-risk passing. Davis Warren, bless his heart, has to know his playing days are over.
DeleteThe plan for 2025 is almost certainly to bring Underwood in and have him starting by the end of the year, if at all possible.
My comparison to Morris is purely to note that very highly rated players regularly don't workout according to plan. Until Underwood shows up and does it in a winged helmet we don't know what he is. Hopes are hopes.
DeleteInjuries are impossible to predict IMO.
Warren could potentially pursue a 6th year if he sits out the season due to injury. That could be at another school if Underwood is locked in at starter.
Delete@ Anonymous 8:13 a.m.
DeleteI would like to see Underwood get a chance to play and take the training wheels off early in the year. If Michigan's window starts in 2025 to do some damage (maybe not win a national championship, but make the playoff), I think they're going to need Underwood down the stretch.
I don't necessarily mean I want him to start and throw the ball all over the place, but if he's capable, I would like it to be a little more like Brady/Henson when they alternated quarters and then went with the hot hand or whatever. If he's capable, I want Underwood to be involved early.
My hope is Underwood is ready to take over as we enter October
DeleteI just don't expect much from Keene, though I agree he's an upgrade over Warren, and am grateful we won't be tempted with the Orji gimmick
In 2024 the program was forced to ride barely serviceable QBs (Orji, Tuttle, Warren) because of an almost criminal neglect of the position in the final years of Harbaugh's reign. Securing Bryce Underwood means the program will look to get Underwood on the field as quickly as it is practically possible. Keene knows this and Jadyn Davis knows this. When -- not if, but when -- Underwood comes in, we'll see a lot of very conservative play calling, with the objective being to protect him while he learns the college game. It'll look a lot like what we saw with McCarthy in 2021.
ReplyDeleteMore important they maximize him for 2026 than rush him to the field in 2025. But I do think McCarthy in 2021 is a pretty reasonable draft of early season expectations.
DeleteUnderwood maybe more ready though as a freshman than McCarthy was. Also Michigan may need more from the QB position than they needed in 2021 (given the questions at OL).
Flashback to last year's preview. Something's never change
ReplyDeletehttp://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2024/03/2024-spring-football-preview-quarterback.html