Name: Justice Haynes
Height: 5'11″
Weight: 210 lbs.
High school: Buford (GA) Buford
Position: Running back
Class: Junior
Jersey number: #22
Last year: Haynes played for Alabama. He started six games and ran 79 times for 448 yards and 7 touchdowns; he also caught 17 passes for 99 yards.
TTB Rating: N/A
A second straight transfer in the countdown, Haynes started half the games last year for the Alabama Crimson Tide and would have played against Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl if not for entering the transfer portal. Despite starting six games, his only 100+ yard performance came against Western Kentucky in the season opener when he ran 4 times for 102 yards and 1 score, including an 85-yard touchdown. Otherwise, his rushing output never topped 79 yards. He did reel off four straight games with a touchdown score, including three against ranked teams. So while the overall totals weren't great, there was some steady production. (Quarterback Jalen Milroe and running back Jam Miller led the team with 168 and 145 rushing attempts, respectively.)
With Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards off to the NFL, Michigan needed someone else to step in at running back. Cole Cabana transferred to Western Michigan after the season, and Ben Hall transferred to North Carolina after spending the spring trying to duke it out with Haynes for a role in the 1-2 combo with Jordan Marshall. Haynes and Marshall seem like very similar running backs, guys who have some power, some speed, and some vision, and Michigan's offense should roll smoothly with those two guys in the backfield. But after Haynes, there is a major question mark, because the remaining backs are totally unproven at the FBS level. Massachusetts transfer C.J. Hester already re-entered the transfer portal, and Princeton transfer John Volker will fight with Micah Ka'apana and a couple freshmen for the #3 job. That means Marshall and Haynes are both pretty valuable commodities.
Over the last five full seasons (not counting the 2020 COVID season), Michigan's #2 running back has never had fewer than 119 carries and has averaged about 130 carries per year. If that trickles over into 2025, Haynes should be touching the ball about 135-140 times once you factor in a few receptions. Haynes has a chance to be an integral part of an offense that intends to beat up opposing defenses.
Prediction: Backup running back
We're going to need a heavy dose of both guys. Hopefully they can stay healthy, because nothing after them is close to intriguing
ReplyDeleteYep he should be a fun one to watch. It'll be intriguing to see how things sort out between him and Marshall. Both are talented backs but Marshall was 3rd string and barely played until Mullings and Edwards became unavailable. Hayes lost the starting job at Bama and was 3rd in the pecking order for carries. On one hand that doesn't look like elite talent necessarily. On the other hand both flashed some high end ability, come with big recruiting hype, and stayed ahead of other highly regarded talents on elite programs.
ReplyDeleteWith the prevalence of heavy rotation at the RB position, snaps are limited, so I find it hard to rank guys too high in importance. But there is no doubt that Hayes could generate big stats and a be on a lot of highlights. If Marshall goes down for a stretch, he'll be elevated into a starring role.
Glad to have him on the team and to see if one of Michigan's biggest NIL targets pays off. Encouraging to hear speculation that his running style fits with the offense - though we'll have to see with our own eyes.
...Will also be interesting to see what he does after the season with another year of eligibility still on the table for 2026.
"Haynes and Marshall seem like very similar running backs"
ReplyDeleteYep it seems like it doesn't it. This is an interesting dynamic and a departure from the oft-referenced Thunder/Lightening duos. I don't really think it's any sort of problem but perhaps it opens the door for one of the RB3 guys to carve a niche role for themselves. I don't expect this at all, but I always do enjoy when a FB type gets a big role at the goalline and Bredeson deserves the shine.
If you were to rank-order the running back role in terms of abilities, and the abilities were:
ReplyDeletea) Top-end speed
b) Acceleration, or quickness
c) Lateral mobility, or juking
d) Patience to see and wait for blocks
e) Ability to run through tackles, and YAC
f) Ability to catch the ball
f) Ability to pick up blitzes
How would you rank them? In an ideal world, what's the order of things you'd want in an RB?
D, B, E are tops to me.
DeleteD patience or "vision" can be learned but takes consistency - reps and trust with the OL to execute but it's so critical on gameday
B quickness matched with E strength are the main ways you avoid getting tackled. Either works but ideally you get both (e.g., Corum).
A speed is the most overrated thing but can inflate YPC for guys, typically when strong blocking gets them big windows into open field. (e.g., Edwards, Issac, Shaw, Brown, A-Train). Explosives matter but on most downs it's not relevant to RB.
F are both often underrated because there's not much analysis or distinction and it doesn't show up in stats. But if you're in an offense that is majority pass then this is exactly what you are doing most of the time. And even if you're run heavy like Michigan you're doing it 40% of the time. Some historical standouts here like Vincent Smith and (for a freshman) Charbonnet, but generally blocking is a necessary thing to get on the field at Michigan at least in the Fred Jackson days (which was most of the last 30 years). Anyway F is somewhat system dependant but often underrated.
First, I think Thunder does a great job with these countdowns. But Haynes is one that I think will rank much higher. I think Haynes is roughly on even footing with Marshall and when you factor in a true frosh QB, meh OLine and meh WRs, I think both backs will be very important (each probably a top 15 player, maybe higher). Also I think Michigan will need two healthy backs and both will be featured. Finally, from the film I saw I might even give the slightest edge to Haynes. So I would probably rank him around 12 or so. (I would rank Bryce #1 because duh QB plus his overall performance will dictate so much of what this team is or is not able to do. Benny might be #2 despite the deep rotation).
ReplyDeleteIf you can replace one with the other then neither is that valuable.
DeleteRotation is preferable, I think that is obvious for most, especially over the course of a full season. But historically when one of the top 2 goes down it is handled by the other taking on a bigger load and the fall-off in production is not really evident. Examples in recent years -- Blake goes down in '21 and Haskins goes from ~20 carries a game to ~30. Blake goes down in '22 and Edwards goes from ~10 carries a game to 20+. Edwards and Mullings unavailable to close '24 and Marshall drops a 100 yard game on Bama.
Not sure either back belongs in the top 15. Look at a position like DT or Edge where you also have rotation also -- but if you're down to one guy you trust you still can't give him 90% of the workload like you can at RB.
Heavy rotation is a luxury at RB but a must at other positions.
If Marshall gets injured then Haynes shoots up in importance...but that kind of logic hits harder at other positions than RB I think.
1. Underwood
2. Benny
3. Crippen
4. D.Moore
5. R. Moore
6. El Hadi
7. Link
8. Hill
9. Williams
10. Berry
I understand your point but my point is that for Michigan's offense, two top RBs are not a luxury its nearly a necessity. Sure, 1 or 2 games you can lean on one. IMO losing EITHER Marshall or Haynes for the season would have bigger drop off than losing Zeke Berry (no offense to Zeke). Until I see otherwise, Michigan's offense is dependent on good RBs, especially with mediocre WRs and OLine. You need two for the season and the drop off to the 3rd back is likely significant (more than Berry to Berry's backup IMO).
Delete@BNC did you notice a big drop off when Edwards went down against OSU or when Mullings opted out of the bowl?
DeleteDefinitely a necessity to have more than 1 back, but that's true at most positions. QB and OL are only spots without rotation. And backups at some spots (like OL) are probably more important than RB because they're subbing for multiple people.
You might be right about Berry but I'll just give the counter argument here. Berry is a starter. Haynes is a backup. Hill is another starting CB, but you need 3CBs to rotate. 3CBs is like 2RBs in terms of that's what you need, minimum, for meaningful snaps. So the analog to the top backup at RB (Haynes) is the top backup at CB (Anderson).
For example against Alabama CB3 was Hill and he played 28 snaps and RB2 was Hall and he played 30 snaps.
You can tighten down the rotation at both yeah, but you still need a backup to play a key role, even in a limited capacity. So if one of the top 3 (meaningful rotation) at CB goes down what happens? It's a freshman or unproven starter. Meanwhile what if one of the top 2 (meaningful rotation) at RB goes down? It's Volker (probably) before a freshman or unproven starter.
The situation is more precarious at CB. The depth is better at RB. So that's why I'd rank the starting CB(s) higher than the backup RB. If Berry or Hill goes goes down you are leaning more on Anderson AND the CB equivalent of Kapanna or Parker. If Marshall or Haynes goes down you are leaning harder into the co-starter but you've got a proven vet at least to step in before you NEED one of the youngsters.
Comparing CB2 to RB2 -- starter vs backup, higher percentage of snaps, tougher to replace without pulling a young/unproven guy into the rotation, and generally considered to be a more impactful position on top of it.
I would also argue that Berry is more likely to be an all conference player than Haynes due to talent level and role. But that's definitely subjective.
That's my take. FWIW Zach Shaw agrees with you not me.
https://247sports.com/college/michigan/longformarticle/the-michigan-insider-subscribers-rank-michigan-footballs-25-most-important-players-for-the-2025-season-251811824/#2670808
He has Haynes at 3 and Marshall at 13 in his version of a TTB countdown.
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"Michigan's offense is dependent on good RBs"
This feels intuitive but on the other hand we are never WITHOUT a good RB. Before last game against Bama we lose our top 2 NFL-caliber backs and it might have been a problem except nope just pop in a freshman and we are all good.
As for CB well I still remember a time where next man up was kinda a big problem:
https://mgoblog.com/diaries/never-forget-michigan-secondary-time-heal
Closest we ever got to disaster at RB was Isiah Gash participating in a couple of late scoring drives for a come from behind win over Illinois in '22 after Edwards and Corum were unavailable.