RUSH OFFENSE vs. NEBRASKA RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #15 in rushing (242.7 yards/game) and yards per carry (6.12). The revelation last week was QB Bryce Underwood's legs when he ran 9 times for 114 yards and 1 touchdown. Running back Justice Haynes has 100+ yards in all three games this season and averages 7.92 yards per attempt so far. Backup RB Jordan Marshall (10 carries, 52 yards, 2 TD last week) had his best game and showed off some nice speed, though one long touchdown run was called back because of a hold. On the offensive line, Michigan will likely be without LG Giovanni El-Hadi but should get RG Brady Norton back from injury. Nebraska is #75 in rushing defense (136 yards allowed/game) and #84 in yards allowed per carry (4.04). Against the lone Power 4 team they played so far, they gave up 30 carries for 202 yards (6.7 yards/carry) to Cincinnati, including 13 carries for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns to QB Brendan Sorsby. Underwood is obviously a better athlete than Sorsby, so has Nebraska figured anything out? Will Michigan let Underwood run that much? It remains to be seen. Nebraska runs a 3-3-5 defense, so the base includes a good number of defensive backs, but their top five tacklers are all defensive backs. Senior safety DeShon Singleton (6'3", 210) and redshirt freshman Rex Guthrie (6'1", 200) lead the team with 12 tackles each. Former top-100 recruit Elijah Jeudy (6'3", 300) starts at nose tackle after coming over from Alabama, and Missouri transfer Williams Nwaneri (6'7", 265) is another former highly recruited player who starts on the defensive line. Michigan should be too big for Nebraska to handle up front, but the 3-3-5 can be tough against gap runs, because sometimes all those linebackers can get run-throughs when linemen pull.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. NEBRASKA PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #84 in passing offense (209.3 yards/game), #58 in yards per attempt (7.9), and #89 in passing efficiency. Underwood has completed 57.5% of his passes for 628 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He seems to have made a good connection with WR Donaven McCulley and TE Marlin Klein, the latter of whom missed the Oklahoma game and seemed a little limited against Central Michigan with a lower leg injury. Hopefully Klein is back up to speed for this weekend, because he's a mismatch - too fast for linebackers, and too big for safeties. The offensive line is tied for #25 in sacks allowed per game (1.0). Nebraska is tied for #87 in sacks per game (1.67), led by four different players with one sack each: DT Riley Van Poppel (6'5", 295), DT Ashton Murphy (6'5", 275), LB Dasan McCullough (6'5", 235), and LB Marques Watson-Trent (5'11", 235). The strength of the defense is the secondary, where former USC CB Ceyair Wright (6'0", 190) roams. Senior Malcolm Hartzog, Jr. (5'9", 185) has the team's lone interception so far this season, which came against Sorsby and Cincinnati. They haven't been challenged much in the past two games against Akron and Houston Christian, so being ranked as the #1 passing defense (66 yards allowed/game) is a little misleading; for example, Akron is completing 45.8% of their passes for 5.0 yards/attempt and a 92.88 passer rating, all of which would have ranked well below Michigan's terrible passing offense from 2024.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. NEBRASKA RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #25 in rushing defense (89 yards allowed/game) and #18 in yards allowed per carry (2.64). Their linebackers are playing very well, and Michigan has been using four guys at inside linebacker pretty regularly: Ernest Hausmann (20 tackles), Cole Sullivan (13), Jimmy Rolder (16), and Jaishawn Barham (12). Last week Michigan used Barham quite a bit as an edge player, and I would expect to see more of that in the future since Sullivan and Rolder are both good players, and Barham's upside may be higher off the edge. I'm hoping for more from the defensive tackles, who have made a couple splash plays but haven't been as good as I had hoped. Nebraska is #60 in rushing offense (178.7 yards/game) and #44 in yards per carry (5.01). Junior RB Emmett Johnson (5'11", 200) has 52 carries for 326 yards (6.3 yards/carry) and 4 touchdowns, but he had just modest success against Cincinnati (4.3 yards/carry on 25 attempts) and really went off against Akron and Houston Christian (27 carries for 218 yards in those two games). The offensive line is a veteran group, even if one of them is a transfer in RG Rocco Spindler (6'5", 320), and the youngest is 6'6", 305 lb. redshirt sophomore LT Gunnar Gottula, who has been dealing with an injury this fall. Sophomore QB Dylan Raiola (6'3", 230) has 9 carries for 19 yards this fall, so he's not a huge threat but he's somewhat mobile.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. NEBRASKA PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #43 in passing defense (182.3 yards allowed/game), #25 in yards allowed per attempt (5.4), and #33 in passing efficiency defense. Word has been that captain and former starter Rod Moore will make his debut this weekend after missing all of 2024 and the first three games of 2025, but how rusty will he be after not playing football for a year and a half due to his knee injury and multiple setbacks? Michigan may also be without CB Zeke Berry for a second straight week. With the aforementioned Barham coming off the edge, I think we'll see some good pressure put on Raiola, but he's accurate and can throw from multiple angles, so he can still hurt defenses even if Michigan beats a block or two. Nebraska is #5 nationally in passing offense (366.3 yards/game), #1 in completion percentage (79.3%), #12 in yards per attempt (9.9), and #8 in passing efficiency. As efficient as Raiola has been, his backup QBs are 16/17 for for 270 yards and 1 touchdown. I think that shows how weak the competition has been, though, rather than how awesome Nebraska QBs are. Senior Kentucky transfer WR Dane Key (6'3", 210) was recruited by Michigan out of high school and the transfer portal, and he leads the Cornhuskers with 13 catches for 190 yards and 3 touchdowns. The other starters are sophomore WR/PR Jacory Barney, Jr. (6'0", 170) with 15 catches for 181 yards and 1 score and sophomore Cal transfer Nyziah Hunter (6'1", 205) with 11 catches for 163 yards and 1 score. Nebraska is allowing a respectable 1 sack per game.
Advantage: Nebraska
ROSTER NOTES
- Nebraska players who were offered by Michigan include: DL Elijah Jeudy, WR Dane Key, WR Juju Marks, TE Mac Markway, LB Dasan McCullough, WR Isaiah Mozee, OL Rocco Spindler, DB Ceyair Wright
- Nebraska LB Willis McGahee IV is the son of former Miami and NFL RB Willis McGahee
- Nebraska DT Riley Van Poppel is the son of former MLB pitcher Todd Van Poppel
- Nebraska recruiting and personnel analyst Frank Verducci is the brother of famous Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .
- On September 30, 2023, Michigan beat Nebraska by a score of 45-7
- Nebraska QB Heinrich Haarberg (now a tight end) completed 14/25 passes for 199 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception
- Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy completed 12/16 passes for 156 yards and 2 touchdowns
- Michigan QB Jayden Denegal threw his first and only Michigan touchdown
- Blake Corum, Kalel Mullings, and McCarthy each scored a rushing touchdown
- WR Roman Wilson made 4 catches for 58 yards and 2 touchdowns
- DEs Josaiah Stewart (2), Braiden McGregor (1), and Derrick Moore (1) each recorded at least one sack
PREDICTION
- Nebraska hasn't seen anyone as good as Michigan yet, so this is going to be a new level of test for the Cornhuskers. On the flip side, Michigan played a better team on the road when they went against Oklahoma, and that game was relatively close. Oklahoma's QB and defense were better than Nebraska's, and I don't think the environment will be quite so intimidating at Nebraska in mid-afternoon as it was in Norman at night.
- If Nebraska barely beat Cincinnati (20-17 in week one), do I think Michigan is 4 points better than Cincinnati? Yes. Yes, I do.
- Michigan 27, Nebraska 16
I didn't know McGahee's son was playing!
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised you have our pass offense ahead. Pass pro isn't great, and we're missing Hansen again
Agree that we should win, but I've got this a one score game (Cincinnati was week1, neutral site)
31-24, Go Blue
I am so glad we didn't get Miller Moss (who I thought might fit) or Billy Edwards. Young Underwood is better than both already, and Haynes was the better investment
ReplyDeleteI guess we should trust the coaches? Sometimes
MCCulley broke tackles and got more YAC for a first down than any WR did last year
DeleteWhy did Semaj throw to McCulley? Let the former QB throw that, and we have six
Channing Goodwin with two drops, one a TD. On his first catch, reaching for extra yards turns Bryce's next run into a 1st Down
LMAO that the Announcer said the same thing about last year's WR group
Game 4, and our OL still isn't moving anyone ... but, Guanara > Norton
Who TF doubted the decision to bring in Haynes? Dude is lightning in a bottle, even with an inconsistent OL. He's everything we hoped Donovan Edwards would be
Moving Barham to Edge really freed up the rest of the DL
RunD needs to penetrate & make stops. Put Raiola in obvious pass downs
Secondary keeps getting cooked. I expected it, but don't like it
SpTms is killing our field position
We went from boa constrictor to Boom-Bust on 0
DeleteBoth RBs are sooo physical. SMASH!
Good for Marshall! Dude runs so dang hard, it's nice to see him break one
I like RG much better with Guanara. Not great, but he's done okay for two weeks now
I've had enough of these WR drops. Bryce deserves better
Bell, Simpson and ZMarshall on the same side of a play is troubling
That last drive was our most MICHIGAN drive of the year
Hillman should have been pulled after that flag, even if for one play. Accountability matters
I really liked Etta today. Benny & DMoore too. The Barham effect
Lots of subs in to close the Nebraska drive. Bold move
Hillman didn't even attempt to wrap. Again. Fitting that he gave up a TD after the non-call for targeting
Our PR strategy appears to be Don't block it, but don't return it either
Hottake: Joe Taylor is our best Returner
If the OU game was like last year's Washington trip, then this was like Minnesota. Nice ups by Bell
We are undefeated with Interim Coaches!
LONELY
Delete#SATURDAYNIGHT
You're mad because I know the game
DeleteJust kick back and learn something t0bY
FAAAAAAANTASY. DOUBLE DIPPING HERE WITH YOU (KNOWING THE GAME LOLOL) AND ME BEING MAD (LOLOLOL). YOU WISH!
DeleteAnother white flag
DeleteI hope I am wrong but I think Nebraska wins this game. The defense will confuse Underwood and we will struggle to score. Expect a low scoring game.
ReplyDeleteThe coaching, the player discipline, the execution continues to remind me more of Hoke than Harbaugh, but we won on the road so lets keep it civil.
ReplyDeleteBU, to me, is already a top half B10 QB even though the passing stats were not the greatest. He is not getting a lot of help from these WR's. By the end of the season he might be the best in the B10. That might sound crazy, but those other guys actually have receivers. (when are we going to can Bellamy?)
The OL is hard to evaluate unless they are really good or really bad by just watching the game. I rely in Mgoblog for the tedious breakdown. They looked Ok.
The RB looks like the best coached, most prepared group on the team.
WR-don't want to talk about them. Dead to me.
Defense- Moving #1 to edge is releasing violence. I like. This gets #23 in the game and he just pops off the screen whenever he is in.
The DB all look athletic and capable, but not well coached. Constantly out of position, poor technique, grabbing when they don't have to...and taunting like boneheads. We miss Clinksdale, that is Harbaugh took him.
Great road win. Some lessons to learn here and hopefully tighten up for the bye.
ReplyDeleteTackling - need to do some 101 basics drills during the bye week to get these young guys a refresher on fundamentals. Mangam still tackles like a Spartan. More misses or near misses than we're used to this year. Not a disaster but an opportunity to tighten up.
Catching - turn the dial on the juggs machine on max and get those reps in on short routes, cuz Bryce is bringing it. Morgan is a playmaker but not a consistent receiver. Saw that saturday. Understandable that not much development happened last year but we need better from the junior. Have we hit last years total on dropped balls yet as a team? I'll assume the coaches are playing the right guys, that Goodwin is limiting mistakes and blocks better than the competition, but at some point you wonder if O'Leary isn't going to come in to take a few snaps from the top 3 who are taking on pretty heavy playing time loads. At least Bell showed good hands on the on-side. Ain't nobody left on Fred Moore island lol. It was fun while it lasted. Still hopeful Marsh is improving each week because he has WR2 talent. Hopefully Hansen is getting healthy cuz he's in the mix at slot too.
Clock management -- we know Sherrone sucks at game theory stuff but there was some hope that Biff might be able to provide guidance. Nope. For all the effort that goes into incremental advantages in punt coverage or whatever else, to have the coaches giving away key possessions and missing/giving extra scoring opportunities is thing that needs to be addressed. Hopefully Sherrone noticed from the couch and at some point gets somebody in the room who is analytical enough to know when to use timeouts and the correct 4th down calls.
Taunting - pretty obvious to say, but this kind of thing can't happen. Mangam was mouthing off before and now you have Hillman getting flagged. This isn't East Lansing.
Reasons for optimism going forward.
Delete1. Jaishawn looks like a natural at edge again. I guess we had a lot of talent there the last couple years but he always looked more like an edge than a LB. Maybe this is matchup dependent (Brandt and Nichols also had their moments, and Moore looked like a star again vs Nebraska), but it seems like he has found a home outside. Parsons-like vibes. Edgeshawn Sackham might be the star this defense was looking for.
2. Bryce is the Truth -- Chapter 4. I know he got a bad grade for PFF and I know he was far from perfect, but dude continues to make plays, take shots downfield, and (for a freshman) there are very few mistakes. Some of these throws are gorgeous. Also I know we are kinda taking it for granted but there are no moments without composure. Contrast with Orji's body language at times last year or Warren and Tuttle turnover fests. The moment does not appear too big for Bryce. Congrats on your first road win young fella! and ....Hold onto that ball.
3. OL looks improved again. Even though Nebraska DL sucks this was a promising performance with 2 backups filling in to start. Through 4 games Link looks dicey still, but improved significantly. Still on track to be a quality starter in his final couple seasons (and still no business being on the field in 2024). The holes are there for the RBs right now and the pass pro limitations are mitigated by Bryce being such a threat on rollouts.
4. Jayden Sanders
Young fella! Another example of the uncertainty of freshman because all the talk was about Earls in spring and summer, but it's Sanders who looks like a future all american. Reminds me of Waller in '23 outplaying more hyped Hill. You still want Berry back obviously but it looks like we have a clear CB3. Otherwise, it would be a lot more concerning that so many freshman are seeing meaningful snaps in the secondary. As Curtis, Moore, Berry get fully healthy that should stop, but Sanders looks like he earned a spot in the rotation from here on out.
5. Coaches adapting -- we saw Bryce run multiple times. We saw Bryce throw down field. No "taking the air out of the ball" this week. Credit where it's due the coaches are changing playcalling to fit their personnel this year, whether its more zone blocking or more QB runs we are seeing adjustments. I even had to give a "RUNDABAW" in the 4th Q (reminiscent of last year lol). Biff and Chip* mostly obliged.
TBF they adapted last year too but let's hope they don't waffle back and forth like last year.
6. Rod Moore - welcome back! I said above Jaishawn might be the star we are looking for but I'm holding out hope that Rod is back to his all american form to join Jaishawn by Ohio State.
7. Schedule looks incrementally more manageable.
Wisky is in a tailspin. USC can't play Defense. MSU and Purdue may have elevated their offenses a bit and taken small steps to respectability, but still are bottom end Big Ten teams. Huskies and Trojans are going to test our defense no doubt, but there isn't a lock down defense on this schedule between the Sooner and Buckeye bookends. We don't have to try to win 13-10.
*Biff and Chip -- what a couple names to have running the show along with "Wink" LOL
GO BLUE!
OLeary might have to be an option. Dude is slow and not very athletic, but he made catches last year, even a couple non-routine ones. As badly as we need playmakers, right now an even higher priority is to eliminate the drops
ReplyDeleteHopefully Hansen & Klein are healthy for Wisconsin & after. They are threats; McCulley can move the chains. The "other Receiver" only needs to not screw it up. Not just Goodwin/Morgan/Moore drops, but there was yet another play Saturday whenGoodwin took his route RIGHT NEXT TO McCulley
PFF can be reliable, but I have no idea where they got Bryce's grade from. I saw one misfire, a pass on the run, thrown too wide for Goodwin to even touch. Everything else was either good or careful. A TrFR on the road - with four WR drops and two hobbled TEs - looked pretty solid to me
The fumble was bad (two hands & SQUEEZE!), but I'm not sure how that impacts his pass grade?
I agree 100%. I'll just add that I think Hansen is a much bigger threat as a flex receiver than Klein. Klein is bigger and a much better blocker and usually inline. I know Klein is supposed to be fast for a TE but I don't see him separating all that much.
DeleteFlex TE, not Flex WR
DeleteHansen seems like a poor man's Loveland - his skills and strengths seem to be as a receiver first and foremost and as a blocker secondarily. That is not true for Klein or Bredeson. It is true for Marsh or Browder.
DeleteWe can call them whatever we want to call them. It's semantics ultimately. Similar to if you want to classify edges one way or another. I don't really want to get in argument because this is very subjective.
I think we can agree Michigan puts a lot of different types of players with very different skills and aligns them at the slot receiver position on the field. It might be a short receiver who also plays outside (like Morgan or Odoms), it might be a taller receiver (like McCulley or Walker), it might be a traditional in-line TE flexing outside (like Klein), it might be a RB or FB (like Edwards or Bredeson), it might be a TE-sized guy who can catch like a WR and blocks like one too (aka "Flex TE"). We've seen guys like Funchess move seamlessly from being categorized as a Flex TE to a Big WR. It's fluid.
Hansen is in the TE room so he is a TE, as was Loveland. But so is Max Bredeson. It maybe worth asking if Max Bredeson classifies strictly as a TE? When he flexes outside is he a Flex FB, Flex TE, Split H-back, jumbo WR (LOL)? YMMV. Ultimately it doesn't matter if you call Max a FB or TE or a FB/TE, we all know what the kid does well and what he doesn't. His job is a lot like a FB even if he practices with the TEs.
Furthermore, Michigan asks it's WR to block from the slot all the time. Mgoblog Seth has had posts lately about "Tiny TEs". WRs flexing inside to take on blocking roles traditionally done by TEs mirrors TEs flexing outside to run routes traditionally done by WRs.
It's all fluid. That's not unique to Michigan or CFB.
The game has evolved for guys to be a lot more multiple. Max Bredeson and Colston Loveland are very different players with very different skillsets and you can insist both are different flavors of TEs if you want. Or you can say one is a FB/TE and the other is a WR/TE. Ultimately it does not really matter what you call it.
Loveland spent most of his time doing what he was best at -- running routes and being a threat in the passing game. That overlaps with the WRs job description. For him that meant lining up on the field in the spots where guys in the WR room also line up more often than as an in-line TE, H-back, or fullback. So his duties in 2024 overlapped a lot more with WRs like McCulley or Morgan than it overlapped with what Klein and Bredeson do now and did last year.
Hansen seems like a poor man's Loveland. I don't mind calling him a Flex TE, a Flex WR, or a WR/TE. He thrives as a receiver it seems. He isn't really trusted to block all that much. Call that a role, or call that an alignment, or call that a position. When he's out there he's usually out there to run routes and catch the ball.
Yeah, I stopped reading after "wE cAn cAlL tHeM wHaTeVeR wE wAnT" ... sure, we can call Edge "Curb" or Running Back "Point Guard" ... but we'd be we'd be wrong
Delete#pointguardsmatter
#fAnTaSy
#gocrytothunder
NO YOU DIDNT.
Delete#EXPOSED
#HIU
Lmao, "wE cAn caLL tHeM wHaTeVeR"
DeleteAnother lAnKt0bY fantasy
WHITE FLAG
DeleteYOU READ IT ALL.
#EVERYTIME
#WEKNOW
Three lies in less than three hours
Delete#dotheyknow