Sunday, November 22, 2020

Michigan 48, Rutgers 42 (3 OT)

 

Cade McNamara gets harassed by former Michigan DT Michael Dwumfour (image via Michigan Daily)

Winning feels good. I don't really care that it was Rutgers. I don't really care that it took three overtimes. I don't really care that I had to stay up until midnight to watch the finish. I went to bed feeling . . . maybe not happy, but relieved.

Remember, remember, the 23rd of September . . . On September 23, 2017, quarterback Wilton Speight's back got broken on a dirty hit by Purdue. In stepped backup John O'Korn, who completed 69.2% of his passes for 270 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception for an offense that had been disappointing up to that point. He was the savior! The following week he threw 3 interceptions against Michigan State and would finish with 2 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on the year. The Purdue game was Fool's Gold. So I have that in the back of my mind going into the next section.

Hit the jump for more.


Remember that elephant in the room? I feel bad for Joe Milton, but the writing is on the wall. Season stats:

  • 57.2% completions, 4 TD, 4 INT
  • 67.4% completions, 5 TD, 0 INT

The first is obviously Milton, and the second is "backup" Cade McNamara. Milton was 5/12 for 89 yards, 0 TD, and 0 INT when he was pulled for McNamara in the second quarter. McNamara was 27/36 for 260 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions the rest of the way. McNamara lacks the wow factor when it comes to arm strength, but accuracy, anticipation, etc. are more important than throwing a ball 80 yards in the air. McNamara said after the game that he felt he should be the starter going forward, and Jim Harbaugh agreed.

What's wrong with Milton? The bad thing is that I feel like Milton has made progress as a passer, especially after week two against Michigan State. It hasn't been a steady climb, but there are positives. Unfortunately, the progress is too slow. People kept saying Milton wasn't the reason Michigan was losing, and they're right. He wasn't the reason. But he was a big chunk of that pie. Milton reminds me of Chad Henne in 2004. The problem is that Henne was a true freshman, and Milton is in his third year of college. Add in that Milton doesn't have a Braylon Edwards (a.k.a. Nico Collins) to chuck the ball up to and save the day on 50/50 balls, and it's not a good recipe. Milton looks like an NFL quarterback in shorts and t-shirt, which is why I took everything Devin Gardner was saying about him in the off-season with a grain of salt. But when the lights come on, anticipation, reading a defense, improvising, etc. all become important, and Milton hasn't shown much in those areas.

What's right with McNamara? McNamara understands the quarterback position as a redshirt freshman better than his slightly older teammate does. It was said multiple times on the broadcast last night, but he's the leading passer in Nevada high school state history with over 12,000 passing yards. The main takeaway from that isn't that he threw for a bunch of yards, but that he got a lot of opportunities to throw the ball. That means he's had to read coverages, read leverage of defenders, identify blitzes, etc. So when Rutgers blitzed or got pressure on Saturday night, McNamara knew where his hot receivers were and figured out ways to sidearm the ball past leaping defenders.

Sidebar. Recently, I was playing some pickup basketball. I was lucky enough to get matched up against the 6'7" former Division I basketball player. I'm used to making entry passes into the post by throwing the ball over the heads of guys who are my size or shorter, so it was in my nature just to do that. The problem was the guy standing in front of me was 6'7". So it took me about 3 tipped passes (it shouldn't have taken me that long) to realize, "Hmm, I'm going to start having to be creative and throw bounce passes, work laterally, etc. or I'm just going to be a turnover machine." Joe Milton is me playing basketball against a 6'7" guy. I either have to figure out how to be crafty and adjust, or I'm just going to have to accept failure.

(Moral of the story: Try not to play against 6'7" guys.)

What's right with Josh Gattis? NOTHING. Okay, okay . . . that's unfairly harsh. But the first quarter of the game with Milton was maddening, and there continued to be occasional maddening things as the night went along. I feel somewhat vindicated after last week, because two of my main points were a) feed Hassan Haskins the ball and b) if you're going to run a short-to-intermediate passing game, get Milton out of there. I already discussed the second point, but as for the first, Haskins averaged 4.4 yards/carry and had the first 100-yard game of the season for Michigan. This is the longest we've had to wait for a 100-yard rusher since at least 2004. Granted, most seasons start with one or two cupcakes in the first three games to pad stats, but still . . . Michigan State, Minnesota, and Indiana are often cupcakes themselves.

The blocking is terrible up front. I don't expect greatness from a line with five new starters (compared to last year) and three new starters (compared to the season opener). Left to right it's: redshirt freshman, redshirt junior, redshirt freshman, true freshman, redshirt junior. And those two redshirt juniors appear to be a default starter (Chuck Filiaga at left guard) and a guy who was injured last year (Andrew Stueber at right tackle). Plus . . .

Fifth year senior tight end Nick Eubanks is pretty useless as a blocker despite being 265 pounds. From my commitment post for Eubanks:

He stands over players who end up on the ground. At one point approximately 2:50 into the video below, he gives a so-so effort at blocking, holds a little bit, and lets his man go; while the guy he’s supposed to be blocking slips off to make the tackle, Eubanks struts toward the sideline while his teammate fights for extra yardage. Eubanks is a body-catcher, so he doesn’t get his hands away from his body. When he settles down into a hitch route (apparently one of the very few routes his team knows), he drifts rather than coming back to the ball. There are at least two plays in which he blocks defenders in the back and deserves a penalty. On several plays he blocks without bending, lowering his hips, and moving his feet well. He does not appear to fight very hard for extra yardage after the catch.

I posted the above on January 28, 2016 (LINK). I'm not 100% on evaluations, but pretty much 100% of that evaluation is spot on five seasons later. Eubanks gave a terrible effort blocking an outside linebacker on a bubble route, and when he was asked to block down on an edge player, he didn't want to do that, either. I do believe he's a decent pass catcher, and he made a nice touchdown catch. Late in the game, he had a chance to run over a defensive back on the sideline . . . and instead stopped his feet, getting blasted out of bounds.

Defensively, it is what it is. I don't think the defense is fixable through scheme. You have to have the guys, and Michigan doesn't have the guys. By the end of last night, here's what the lineup looked like compared to the beginning of the year:

SDE: Aidan Hutchinson Carlo Kemp
3-tech: Carlo Kemp Chris Hinton
NT: Donovan Jeter
WDE: Kwity Paye Taylor Upshaw
Viper: Michael Barrett
MIKE: Cam McGrone Adam Shibley
WILL: Josh Ross
CB: Vincent Gray
CB: Gemon Green
S: Dax Hill
S: Brad Hawkins Hunter Reynolds

That's five new starters, give or take Kemp switching positions and Ambry Thomas opting out. And while a couple guys have improved, Dax Hill has regressed this season. Maybe it's because safeties coach Bob Shoop isn't, you know, coaching safeties, or maybe it's because he's trying to make up for other people's mistakes. But I thought Hill looked really good through the Indiana game. And the last two weeks, he's been really rough, missing tackles and blowing coverages.

What does this mean going forward? I had Michigan winning 34-27, and I was feeling pretty good about that when Michigan was up 35-27 near the end of regulation. Then of course Rutgers scored, sending it to overtime. I was feeling very pessimistic in overtime when Quinn Nordin missed the field goal, but luckily, Rutgers's kicker missed, too. Then I was feeling very pessimistic when Rutgers scored on a 25-yard throwback screen, and Michigan drove down for a score. But the coaches and players figured out a way to win. I'm expecting more of the same down the stretch, with wild emotional swings - if you're still invested. Hopefully this gives the team a jolt of energy and confidence, because they are more talented than what they've shown. But I expect more of the same swings for the rest of the season. I'm not expecting any coast-to-coast dominations. I'm hoping for miracles, but I expect Michigan to pull out 1 or 2 more close wins before the season wraps.

39 comments:

  1. I noticed that also Eubanks is terrible at blocking and looks scared or doesn't like contact. Also it is hard to believe we have walk ons as the two deep. Adam just looks to slow out there imo. Hunter doesn't look bad but what happened to all the safeties we recruited? QJ haven't heard a peep about him.

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    1. Safety is notoriously difficult to play as a freshman. And Quinten Johnson tore his knee up last year. I haven't heard a thing about him this season. But after something like that, he's basically a true freshman who missed his senior year.

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  2. In most normal years at this time, I think about next year's team often with optimism. I am optimistic that UM will be better but.....how much? The QB play should be overall better. The RBs and WRs will be good. The offensive line will be....well...older.

    But....the defense? They have no other direction except better. Will Hutchinson return? Who plays D-line? Hinton, Smith, and ...and...

    Please tell me our future looks better!

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    1. Everyone on defense can return except Hawkins and Kemp. (Well, technically they can come back because of COVID, but they probably won't.) So it's hard to imagine them all being worse with another year under their belts.

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  3. Thunder, am I overreacting that we have so many walk ons/former walk ons in our 2 deep? I mean Vastardis, Reynolds, Shibley, and even Jess Speight. What does that say about our recruiting that we have walk ons player a bigger role than some 4 star recruits, ahem Mazi Smith. Look man, kudos to Reynolds, in limited sample size he actually made a play in the end zone, which was about 1 more than Brad Hawkins did. Call me a hater, but I don't see what Done Brown sees in Hawkins, but then there's a long line of players that I could say the same thing about. Does Done just root for those type of guys cause like him, they have limited athletic ability? like I said I'm a hater, mostly of Done Brown!

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    1. Hunter Reynolds was a borderline scholarship guy coming out of high school, IMO. So I'm not too worried about him.

      I don't want to go position by position because it would take forever, but with all the injuries, opt-outs, etc., I don't really have an issue with walk-ons being on the two-deep. The one place it doesn't make much sense is LB, because there were guys in line for playing time (Jordan Anthony, for example) who just kind of left for no discernible reason.

      The coaches really like Carpenter, but Carpenter missed time due to an injury in camp.

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  4. Shibley may be slow, but I encourage you to watch the tape - he's always around the ball

    McGrone may be fast, athletic and far more talented, but he was lost out there

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    1. Hey I'm not bagging on his effort, or even Reynolds, but man what does it say about our recruiting when we have walk ons that are getting more playing time than recruits. And I get it, programs like UoM will get better quality walk ons, kids will walk on at Michigan rather than get a full ride to a directional school, say CMU. But just seems every time a guy goes down now, we're putting a former walk on out there as the back up.

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    2. A fifth year senior with decent ability is almost always going to be better than a freshman, unless the freshman is a freak.

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    4. While Shibley is a walk-on, he came from one of the best high football programs in the nation. He was a captain on the St. Ignatius football team in Ohio. He has played high level competition. So other than being a walk-on, I don’t think we should assume he’s a scrub.

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  5. Many years ago, I played in a work intramural basketball league. At 6'1", I was the tallest on my team, so they put me at center. One game featured an opponent with a 6'8" center and a 6'10" forward. The 6'8" center was 260 pounds at least, compared to my 165. That game did not go well for me. :-)

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    1. Yeah, the problem with being kinda tall is that you have to defend the really tall guys.

      I actually kind of like it because it's a challenge to outhustle and outsmart them, but it also kinda sucks.

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    2. I could out-hustle my 6'8" counterpart -- I could run really fast back then; no longer, though :-) -- but I could not *move* him. He'd post, and I'd push, and ... nothing. :-)

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    3. Been there. I can stretch 6'3 into 6'5 because of long arms but take away my element of surprise and I'm reduced to banging around and reaching deeper into the bag of tricks.

      -Lank

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  6. This game was a mental win for a team that needed one desperately. McNamara has a skillset that works to move the ball and read a defense. Can he light the world on fire....lets hold off on making that determination. What he does well is throw the ball with some finess and accuracy, unlike Milton who only has rocket arm mode. I never imagined this team putting up 48 points in a game after the last 3 losses. Cade has some moxy to him and I can appreciate his confidence. Those are two qualities I don't see from Milton.

    The defense is just plain terrible and losing players doesn't make it any better. Don Brown doesn't have the right players for the system and as the leader of the defense he is directly responsible for making sure they are recruiting the right kids. This leads to bigger problem for me.

    WHO is the person evaluating talent on the team as a whole? We have witnessed some big misses in players who end up in the league and are successful beyond their college stats. We have a huge lack of evaluation and one could argue coaching going on to improve the talent we do recruit. Our coaches are not making chump change and their doesn't seem to be a hunger inside them. Is this why Mattison and Washington bolted? Did they see this coming?

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    1. I don't think talent identification is an issue. Paye, McGrone, Metellus, Bush, Bell - they are finding plenty of guys who are better than their recruiting rankings indicate. The issue is more about keeping people around who could help. Hudson and Spanellis, Solomon and St Juste. Maybe McCaffrey.

      Also keep in mind some of these guys are being stretched beyond their capabilities due to injury. Hill and McGrone probably look a lot better if Hutchinson, Paye, and Thomas are in the lineup.

      -Lank

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    2. I still cant see how Milton was moved to 1st string. HOW WAS MCNAMARA OVERLOOKED? And I cant see why Sainristil isnt targeted regularly. I can't see why Chris Evand isnt getting a lot more touches, running and catching. And why is All playing so much?
      I think its because Josh Gattis knows just enough to be dangerous to a team. With how fantastic Maryland's offense has looked, the Locksley/Gattis thing has been clearly resolved.

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  7. You are spot on with Eubanks...it makes me sick to watch that guy play. The only effort he expends is when he thinks he's getting the ball..otherwise he doesn't bother.

    Defensively, I saw some effort from the front seven. Hinton showed some ability to dominate at times and I thought the DL played well against the run. I need to rewatch the game, but my initial feeling was that the defense looked better AFTER McGrone went down. The secondary is a dumpster fire though. I'm really thinking that the staff thought Milton was better than he his, because he torched that bunch in practice.

    IMHO, McNamara saved Harbaugh's ass yesterday. I'm eager to see what he can do with a weeks worth of preparation. His ability to find open receivers and get rid of the football when under pressure was impressive. It opened up the run game and it will be interesting to see what kind of growth the OLine makes in the next few weeks. Carpenter had some problems at center, but he didn't look physically outmatched out there. Reason's for hope.

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    1. Carpenter made some mental mistakes - particularly with identifying blitzers and adjusting protections - but physically, he's more capable than Vastardis. Getting some game experience against a blitzing defense was good for him.

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    2. Eubanks is a disappointment but they don't seem to have a better guy. I thought he would rise to the challenge but he doesn't have it. All seems to have it but hasn't put it together yet.

      Carpenter needs to play. Eyes should be on 2021.

      -Lank

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  8. Take this with a grain of salt, but this is one of the better Rutgers teams I have seen in a long time. We definitely played down to their level but Schiano has his team competing in games that would have been sure loses in previous years. Yes this is Rutgers, but this was a better-than-advertised Rutgers and they should be given credit for that.

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    1. I don't even really think we played down to their level. I think this Michigan team is approximately at their level. Michigan's players are more talented as individuals, but the coaches at Rutgers obviously have them buying into the tempo and excitement needed to be successful. I was expecting more of an emphasis on tempo by Gattis, but it's just not there.

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    2. Sad thing is -- I don't think we were playing down to their level so much as playing at it. Rutgers is better than they were but we are much much worse.

      -Lank

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  9. Sorry if this posts twice. I wonder if anyone noticed on the long Rutgers td passI think in second half. D. Hill got beat and even though the receiver caught it on the 35. D. Hill stopped running? I really thought we would see the 4.3 speed. But nope. G. Green at least tried. I like D. Hill and they need him but this was sad

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    1. Yeah, I saw that, too. I think Hill is one of those guys who needs a mental boost. He seemed to be doing well through the Indiana game, but I started to see some of those "loafs" last week against Wisconsin.

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    2. Thunder, I actually saw the beginnings of a defeated posture in the Wisky game. What are the odds he decides he's had enough of Harbaugh and AA and enters the portal after the season?

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    3. Hey Thunder, what are your thoughts that Milton wasn't the best QB, but Harbaugh rubbed the McCaffrey's the wrong way, and it wasn't a performance issue but a clash of personalities that drove Dylan to leave the program? Jim has a reputation of being a "Prick"ly pear!

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    4. I don't know with Hill. He's probably a 3-and-out guy, so I'm not sure how much it would benefit him to transfer after this year.

      I don't really buy that idea that Harbaugh rubbed McCaffrey the wrong way, other than maybe being made the #2 QB rubbed McCaffrey the wrong way. McCaffrey was one of the leaders in the off-season, protesting the Big Ten's cancellation of the season.

      Then he was #2, and he was gone.

      Most coaches are "prick"ly pears. I would say 90% of them are. Some of them can be funny and charming, but most of them are Type A, overbearing, etc. I can think of some with nice-guy reputations (Brady Hoke, Mack Brown, etc.), but Rich Rodriguez, Lloyd Carr, Bo Schembechler, Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, etc., these are not "nice" guys. They might be influential and teach people to have high standards.

      I've worked and played for several head coaches in my life (7 off the top of my head), and 2 of them were what I would consider "nice." And that's just high school and middle school. Those aren't the people who have to have REALLY high standards, like these FBS head coaches.

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  10. Raise your hand if you expected McNamara/Haskins/Johnson as QB1/RB1/WR1 in January. Great, that's nobody.

    Milton's got to learn to put touch on the ball to start. He has a couple years left in college to develop. I hope he rides it out at Michigan for at least another year and keeps growing. Seems like a good kid but not many QBs are patient these days (as evidence by Speight, McCaffrey, Peters, OKorn, etc).

    Completely agree with the sentiments on McNamara. QB is mental position and McNamara seems to have it. But yes the Rutgers and Purdue caveats apply. Still, it was quite the turnaround yesterday and it seemed like the OL, OC, and QB all got better at the same moment. The kid knows how to play and even if the sledding gets tougher that's a start. er.

    With McGrone and Hawkins down yesterday we were playing walkons on the DL, LB, and DB levels. I can't remember that happening before though it probably did at some point during the last decade of Glasgows. That puts out down probably 8 of our 10 best guys. Speaking of...

    Dax Hill had a very rough game. He's a sophomore probably trying to do too much so I'm not stressing it but assertions that he was one of the best players on the team are premature.

    This is a very bad football team but I don't understand the negativity about 2021. Vast majority of the talent will be back. They need to find some help on the DL but the transfer market should be flush. Hinton might have had his best day and Smith had a few moments too.

    The OL is bad and the start of the game, inability to run at all, was brutal. They're young and room to grow so we all just have to patient I think. They got better as the game went along.

    -Lank

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    1. Speaking of walk-ons, I think Michigan was playing walk-ons at all three levels during the Rich Rodriguez years. Mark Moundros, Kevin Leach, Will Heininger, and Jordan Kovacs all come to mind as walk-ons who played defense during that three-year span.

      Okay, I looked it up. Heininger made 10 tackles in 2009, Leach made 46, and Kovacs made 75. So yeah, 2009 was probably the peak walk-on year, because Leach/Kovacs were starters. At least in 2020, the walk-ons who are playing defense (Speight, Shibley, Reynolds, etc.) are second- and third-stringers.

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    2. I completely forgot about Leach. You are right.
      -Lank

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  11. Do we need to go back to the basics? Like JB did with the basketball team. We have talent but I can't understand why other teams have freshmen QBs or other positions ready to play and here it seems like freshman our always in over their head. Erick All has talent but lacks lacks concentration and fundamentals at times or elsbhe would be great them we have Eubanks who can't block or doesn't try I can't tell?

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  12. Spent about 30 minutes typing out a comment. Touched something wrong on phone screen. The comment is gone. Don't want to retype

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  13. Michigan's defense is still getting caught in overpursuit. I don't think staying home has been emphasized by defensive coaches. It was awful to see how bad it was against Wisconsin. Maybe Ohio St really will approach 100 on Michigan.
    QB records could fall with Cade McNamara. If JJ McCarthy does stay with Michigan (I for one am not certain he will) can he beat McNamara out for the job?

    joseph dreamed dreams

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    1. I noticed the DEs doing better with it this week. Kemp, Villain, Upshaw seemed a bit more responsible. It was clear that they got the message last week though maybe the execution still was lacking at times.

      -Lank

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    2. JJ will stick it out if you read his comments after the Wisconsin game. He has a chance to start as a freshman and has the support of every recruit in his class. I am hoping this year is just young inexperienced players along with some bad coaching decisions. Look at Northwestern compared to last year maybe hyping them to early but they are most likely ngoing to win the west.

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  14. I don't think it's fair or appropriate to call Milton incapable. McNamara is clearly better right now but he never made a play that Milton is incapable of making. McNamara is reading the situation better and throwing more catchable balls and he's doing it more consistently. Milton isn't incapable of these things even if he hasn't done them consistently. We know because we've seen him do it at times. Vincent Gray and Gemon Green are not incapable of covering people. Our DLmen are not incapable of staying onsides. Etc.

    Cornelius Johnson - I was dubious of him because I've seen too many bigger WRs that don't have great speed come through and disappoint but here's the thing. He's not just a jumpball guy -- this kid runs good routes sometimes great routes. We've seen him burn people repeatedly. I'm sold.

    -Lank

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  15. Doing it more consistently is what Milton is incapable of (now). Will he ever? To my somewhat trained eye, NO. Too much isn't clicking: doesn't seem to anticipate what defenses are doing before the snap, does not see the entire field (despite his size), and crumbles after a mistake (knew he was done after he ate a sack). Then comes the physical: JM still has no control of his howitzer

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