RUSH OFFENSE vs. NIU RUSH DEFENSE
After last week's outstanding performance on the ground, Michigan is #4 nationally in rushing with 339 yards per game, as well as #5 in yards per carry (6.85). The Wolverines have a home run hitter in sophomore Blake Corum (35 carries, 282 yards, 4 TD), who has a 67-yard run and a 79-yard kickoff return on his resume so far this year. They also have a steady pounder in Hassan Haskins (40 carries, 225 yards, 2 TD), who breaks tackles with regularity. Michigan's offensive line is huge and mauled Washington last week. The only real question seems to be whether fifth year senior Chuck Filiaga or sophomore Zak Zinter starts at right guard, since the latter has been dealing with a cast on his hand. Northern Illinois is #121 (232 rushing yards allowed per game) and #101 (4.78 yards allowed per carry) in run defense. They are extremely young on defense, with nine starters in either their first or second year. Unsurprisingly, the leading tackler is fifth year senior middle linebacker Lance Deveaux, Jr. (5'11", 218), followed by sophomore linebacker Nick Rattin (6'2", 223) and freshman corner Eric Rogers (6'2", 180). The Huskies run, in effect, a 4-2-5 defense and their biggest starting defensive lineman is nose tackle James Ester, a redshirt freshman who checks in at 286 lbs., though a couple rotational backups are over 290. After what Michigan did to Washington, it would be crazy to expect this to be anything less than a large mismatch.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. NIU PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #119 in passing offense (130 yards/game) and #34 in passing efficiency. Quarterback Cade McNamara took a little bit of heat for his play last week, when he looked somewhat skittish despite having good protection the vast majority of the time. The play calling did not set up Michigan to get the ball downfield much against Washington's solid secondary. The Wolverines are still in search of consistency after two-time leading receiver Ronnie Bell was lost for the season to a torn ACL in the season opener. On the plus side, Michigan has allowed just 1 sack against 32 passing attempts. Defensively for Northern Illinois, the Huskies average 2.5 sacks per game (#43 overall), led by sophomore Devante O'Malley with 1.5 takedowns. Three other players have 1 each. Sophomore cornerback Jordan Gandy (5'10", 180) looks particularly vulnerable on one side. Northern Illinois is #45 in pass defense (180 yards allowed/game) but #94 in passing efficiency defense. Will NIU choose a relatively slow death by playing deep and letting Michigan run the ball all day? Or will they see that Washington's tactics didn't work, choosing to challenge McNamara to beat them down the field? If I were NIU's defensive coordinator, I would commit to stopping the run, try to take away Cornelius Johnson, and see if Roman Wilson, Mike Sainristil, Daylen Baldwin, or Erick All can beat me.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. NIU RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan shut down Washington's run game last week, and the Wolverines are now #31 in the country, allowing 88 yards/game. Teams are rushing for 2.75 yards per carry, good for #33. Middle linebacker Josh Ross leads the team with 17 tackles, followed by jack-of-all-trades defensive back Daxton Hill with 12. Michigan's defensive line showed up against Washington and may have earned some confidence against a decent Washington line. That would be good for facing NIU's solid rushing attack, led by running back Harrison Waylee (5'10", 185), a freshman speedster. Waylee is the #3 rusher in the country with 323 yards in two games. His offensive linemen are all between 306-311 pounds, with one senior, two redshirt sophomores, and two redshirt freshmen. The Huskies will also throw out a couple 260 lb. tight ends and dabble with a Wildcat look that has backup running back/fullback Clint Ratkovich (6'0", 229) taking snaps to the pace of 13 carries for 76 yards and 3 touchdowns. NIU will commit to the run because that's their bread and butter, but Michigan should be able to control things up front fairly well for most of the game.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. NIU PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #90 in pass defense, giving up 242 yards per game. Last week they gave up 293 yards to Washington, a team that was playing from behind for most of the game. The Wolverines are #55 in passer rating defense, which is probably a more accurate take. Michigan's cornerbacks are nothing special, but they have a solid safety crew and an elite pass rusher in Aidan Hutchinson (3.5 sacks). Michigan is #43 overall in sacks as a team. NIU (and Michigan State transfer) quarterback Rocky Lombardi had a field day against Michigan in 2020 by throwing up a bunch of deep balls that somewhat miraculously were caught by Michigan State receivers, but new Michigan defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald isn't as averse to zone coverage as former defensive coordinator Don Brown was. Lombardi has completed 56.6% of his passes for 7.0 yards per attempt, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Northern Illinois' leading receiver is 6'0", 194 lb. senior Tyrice Richie with 7 catches for 103 yards and 0 touchdowns. I think the best bet for NIU would be to keep in some extra protection and hope to beat Michigan's linebackers and safeties on in-breaking routes.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Northern Illinois players from the State of Michigan: Safety C.J. Brown (Walled Lake Western), WR Alex Crawford (Macomb Dakota), DE Ivan Davis (Plymouth Canton), DT James Ester (Cass Tech), QB Dustin Fletcher (Flint Carmen-Ainsworth), safety Muhammad Jammeh (Renaissance), TE Blake Kosin (Clarkston), CB Zhamaine March (East English Village), TE Liam Soraghan (Divine Child), DE Jaden Wilson (Renaissance)
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED...
- On September 3, 2005, Michigan won by a score of 33-17 in the schools' only meeting
- RB Mike Hart ran 27 times for 117 yards and 1 touchdown; and caught 4 passes for 49 yards and 1 touchdown
- QB Chad Henne completed 20/31 passes for 227 yards and 2 touchdowns
- WR Jason Avant caught 9 passes for 127 yards and 1 touchdown
- CB Leon Hall made career interception #6
PREDICTIONS
- Roman Wilson catches a touchdown pass
- Harrison Waylee breaks a 40+ yard run
- Michigan 38, Northern Illinois 20
I'm sitting here trying to figure out where NIU will come up with their 20 points. My gut tells me it's more like a 42-7 game.
ReplyDeleteRegarding the rushing attack: in the Washington game, Michigan averaged 6.1 yards per carry. But when I watched the "every snap on offense" video, I saw a lot of carries for short yardage. The average was brought up by the handful of long runs. Michigan faced 18 3rd-down or 4th-down situations, and they converted 9 of those. And this was against a Washington defense where the safeties were kept back the whole game.
All this to say: I wonder how dominating the rushing attack really is? I doubt NIU will prove a test, but a more stout run defense might. This is why, for me, the passing game question mark is looms large. Can Michigan, when their rushing attack is held in check, respond and move the chains? To me, that's the question.
That's why even though Michigan could rush-to-victory against NIU, I truly hope they demonstrate their offensive abilities in other facets of the game. If the passing game sputters and they're forced to rely on rushing, I'm not sure that will carry the day later in the season.
The sustainability of the run game against tougher competition is an open question but Washington was encouraging. I wonder how those Harbaugh Stanford teams did on 3rd/4th down conversions against Washington. Would be an interesting comparison.
DeleteI wonder if the presumption that someone will shut down our run game is true. Aside from OSU is there a better defense on the schedule than Washington?
Should Michigan focus on tuning up it's weakness or it's strength against NIU? Michigan fans seem to think the weakness is the way to go but if we DO want to be able to enforce our will via the run game against teams like Wisconsin, PSU, and MSU then perhaps getting more rush reps against NIU will help. There's a chance that the pass game is going to benefit more from the element of surprise than NIU reps. Maybe a case of IT IS WHAT IT IS.
Another way of saying this:
Michigan can potentially Stanford it's way through the season. If the defense is good enough to hold back the flood gates, a dominant rush attack, turnover avoidance, and some timely conversions from a game manager QB could be a ticket to exceeding 7 wins.
Maybe the dream of 2015 - Stanford mentality with Michigan talent - is alive. Maybe this big mean OL is going to take us back the Bo era - run over everyone until you get to OSU and then hope for the best.
Do I think it's likely we can keep running for over 250 yards a game against tougher competition? No I do not.
DeleteDo I think the above is more likely than an above average passing game? Yes. With Cade and without Bell I don't see it. Until Cade has a good day against a legit opponent I remain skeptical. Meanwhile our OL and RBs are embarrassing people. Let's keep that going.
My vision of hope for our offense looks like a modern form of 00s Stanford and 80s Michigan. For OSU this means getting to a place where we control the clock and keep their offensive position limited. We've hung close to them in the first halves mostly but eventually their talent outlasts us. Maybe we can enforce our will... one can dream.
Michigan needs to come out throwing. Play action, screens and an occasional deep one; having the attitude that they can always run the ball down their throat - which is what the Wolverines are going to do in the 2nd half anyway...........
ReplyDeleteSpend the first quarter anyway working on that passing game for when they'll need it against the likes of Rutgers, Nebraska, NW, MSU, Ind & Maryland. Wisconsin, PSU & OSU? - won't matter if Michigan can pass or not.
As I See It...........INTJohn
I suspect you'll be disappointed. I think Michigan will start the game by "establishing the run," and pass only sparingly until they have a two score lead. We can hope that two score lead is built early on.
DeleteOh MY GAWD! LMFAO..............
DeleteSince you've made this personal:
I suspect. - oh awrite, I confess I know I won't be disappointed. My joy & satisfaction in Life is hardly dependent on anything whatsoever related to anything Football or what Michigan does or doesn't do in the upcoming NIU game.
The only thing that will keep Michigan from scoring at least 40 points in this game is if they run, run, run and run out the clock before they CAN score 40 points. But it doesn't matter to me is they pass or not. Big Picture still says they go 8-4 at best on the season.
As I See It............INTJohn
I didn't make it personal, it's simply a manner of speech. To say "I suspect you'll be disappointed" is to say your expressed desire (that Michigan come out passing) will likely not occur in my opinion.
DeleteAs I lmfao even moar!!!!
DeleteYour denile makes me think you either need serious counseling at The Blahg or maybe your reading comprehension level must be near zero or both. I never expressed a "desire" -- I do not give a shit what Michigan does in this game but please express to me moar of your interpretive emotionalism that you've made now 2 attempts at reflecting back toward - not me - but my posts - OR shit! Maybe it is toward me - you no personally.
Hugs & Kisses..........INTJohn
@ INTJohn 7:10 p.m.
DeleteI really did not take that anonymous comment above to be a personal shot at you. I simply read it as an expectation that was different from yours.
MICHIGAN runs a lot more. Not 4:1, but more like 3:2, because they can't stop it, cade isn't very good, OL isn't as good at pass blocking, and Harbaugh likes it this way
ReplyDeleteUM 45, NIU 10
If this comment section had an upvote function, I'd give you an upvote. I think they will run a fair bit in the NIU game.
DeleteWhat I'm not sure of is whether the passing game's weakness (if indeed there is a true weakness; it's not crystal clear at the moment) is on Cade, the receivers, the OL, the coaches, or a mixture of all of four. The Western game gave some indication Cade can hit his receivers, but that was mostly Ronnie Bell, and he's gone.
That's why they play the games, I guess.
I watched the NIU-Wyoming game, and Wyoming's offensive line was re-setting the line of scrimmage 5 yards downfield on running plays. Michigan could probably score 50 without throwing a pass.
ReplyDeleteNIU DC would be nuts not to follow Thunder's strategy. I think McNamara has proven he can do pretty well against lower level competition so it probably won't work. Still, it's clear that Michigan has not had a high level of confidence in him. It would be foolish for NIU to not test that, especially with how wobbly and inaccurate McNamara looked in limited exposure last week.
ReplyDeleteSam Webb shared some impressions from Devin Gardner where there was a game he played where he just didn't have it and asked for run plays. Gardner was reminded of that last week. Something like the yips.
Anyway, many of us assumed the playcalling was driven by a coaching decision in response to what Washington was doing but there may be more to it on the human side.
Hopefully Cade has good protection, open receivers, and a confidence-building day for everyone involved including fans.
As for the defense, it sounds like another game where they SHOULD be able to do well. If they give up 20 points that might be disappointing.
I think we take a shot on the opening offensive play.
ReplyDeleteI think it'll be a cluster doodle in the box on account of the fact that they don't have the personal to handle our offensive line. So a shot away from the Gandy kid is a very reasonable football move to make.
I'd give him and the safety on his side of the field something that they've already seen out of us to think about, and then go post.
If it misses, I'd go for 10 in 2 in an effort to send the other message.
I might also run All past a guy expecting to get hit, then out and up.
Maybe both, all at once.
Probably spend the next three quarters pounding the snot out Gandy, then take the shot on him.
ReplyDelete