Name: Keon Sabb
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 200 lbs.
High school: Bradenton (FL) IMG Academy
Position: Safety
Class: Freshman
Jersey number: #3
Last year: Sabb was a senior in high school (LINK).
TTB Rating: 84
Sabb was a long-time Clemson commit that Michigan poached from the Tigers after defensive coordinator Brent Venables departed for the Oklahoma head coaching job. Of course, Michigan had its own instability with the loss of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to the Baltimore Ravens, but if you play college football, you have to expect at least one coordinator change during your career. Sabb started his high school career in Glassboro, NJ, but his talent led him to IMG Academy to wrap up, and he was enough of a standout to be selected for the Under Armour All-American Game.
Sabb is probably a strong safety at the Big Ten level, but if he keeps bulking up, he could perhaps play an outside linebacker role. I could see some teams playing him as a nickel, though I think relying on him in a ton of man coverage is probably not a great idea. As for this year, Sabb is likely to take on a backup role. I think he's too good to redshirt and could help on special teams, but Michigan has some experience at safety in Rod Moore, R.J. Moten, and Makari Paige.
Prediction: Backup safety and special teamer
He's low, at #71, because there is no clear position he will fill? Or because the safety has some depth?
ReplyDeleteMichigan has three safeties with a lot of experience (Moore, Moten, Paige) and then someone like Caden Kolesar, who's potentially capable of filling in. So if he's a third-string safety, it makes sense to be this low.
DeleteI have to disagree with Thunder's logic here. Safety is 3 spots if you count nickel. Michigan has used safety-shaped personnel as a 5th DB on the majority of downs for about a decade now.
DeleteSo, another way to say this is that Michigan is backing up their 3 projected starters with a walk-on or freshman. It's true that somebody like Will Johnson could grab the nickel spot instead, and shift Paige to a bench/rotational role but that's still a lot of snaps to go around in the secondary and that opens up a need at corner if it happens.
Michigan's secondary saw heavy utilization from 7 players last year. They retain 4 (Moore, Moten, Turner, Green) but lose 3 of those 7 (Gray, Hill, Hawkins). Johnson can only replace one of those 3. Another 1 can be replaced with higher snap counts from backups (Green, Moten, Paige). But you still need another guy in the secondary. And that's all assuming Johnson is ready and everyone else is healthy...
My guess is that another freshman in the secondary is going to have to play a huge role seeing meaningful snaps at some point. It could be a veteran (Sainristil?, Kolesar) instead but my money based on the talent in the class is that it'll be a freshman that emerges. Which one is anyones guess but I'd rank them a bit higher than this based on the logic above.
Well, whatever the case, I'm hoping he turns out to be as good as the hype there's been about him.
DeleteWe haven't got to the returning starters or Quinten Johnson, Caden Kolesar, Mike Sainristil, Ja'Den McBurrows, or Will Johnson yet.
DeleteI'm saying that Sabb and Berry are guys who project as potential 2nd string players. It's pretty uncertain, because they are freshman, but backups are generally ranked much higher than this.
DeleteI usually favor experience but Q Johnson (mentioned above) is a Senior whose only role has been special teams. Kolesar is a walk on. Sainristil is a position switcher. W Johnson and McBurrows are corners.
I think Michigan is scraping for players here. When that happens top 100 type recruits tend to get a pretty good shot at meaningful roles. I think Sabb and Berry are far more important to the team than say the projected 4th string RB. One of them could be out there trying to cover receivers in Columbus.
Maybe a new DC will play fewer sets with 5 DBs but I'm skeptical that will work. They need guys in the secondary.
You named seven guys above. I'm saying there are 7+ still to go in the countdown (12 off the top of my head). Maybe some don't play much or whatever, but it's not like I only have 5 defensive backs left to go in the countdown. There are 12 ahead of Sabb, Franklin, etc.
DeleteTurner
German Green
Gemon Green
Perry
W. Johnson
Sainristil
Moore
Paige
Moten
McBurrows
Kolesar
Q. Johnson
If you think about a 2-deep, that would be 10 guys across the 5 positions. About 7 will play meaningful downs regularly - starters or close to it. 3 others are waiting in the wings, coming in late in decided games, but an injury away from a bigger role.
DeleteYou list 12 guys higher than Berry/Sabb but I respectfully disagree with some of these names being above talented recruits. Specifically the veterans who look like career backups (e.g., Perry, Green, Johnson). I get it with a guy like Paige or even Kolesar who have shown something, but I think Sabb and Berry will get every opportunity to get playing time ahead of some on this list - and their chances are pretty good.
So that brings us down to 9 at best, for 10 spots in the 2 deep. The 2-deep puts you somewhere around the top 50.
Certainly it is not a guarantee that Sabb or Berry belong there - these are freshman and safety contributions are somewhat unusual beyond the exceptional talents. I'm not saying you need to put them in the top 50 but I am saying they are down here in the 70s ranked below guys who are not going to sniff the 2-deep and have almost no chance of meaningful/competitive downs against OSU (e.g., Franklin, Dixon, Bowman), even if injuries strike.
I think Berry and Sabb are important (in the Donovan Jeter sense if nothing else) because Michigan needs some talented DBs to step up to have any chance of beating OSU. If Kolesar, hell even Paige, are on the field in Columbus they are probably going to get targeted immediately. That might not be true for Sabb/Berry.
I also acknowledge that the 7 top DBs can pull more heavily from CB than it has in the past, so maybe it's McBurrows who steps into a bigger role and sees those OSU downs, maybe it's Sainristil, or maybe another freshman corner like Jones or Pollard instead of Sabb/Berry. The nickel spot can go to different personnel. But it's not like we're swimming in talented CBs right now either - there's 2 guys we trust (Green and Turner) and 2 we are optimistic about (Will Johnson and McBurrows). We've always been rotating 3 corners pretty much every year, just for the 2 outside spots so at best you have 1 guy to slide inside. Beyond the top 4 it's cross your fingers time - guys who aren't any more likely to be able to cover whoever OSU is lining up in the the slot than Berry/Sabb, IMO.
Moving Sainristil here tells me they are grasping for anything. Elite recruits can solve this kind of problem quickly.
It's a philosophical thing - who is more important - the guy who is 90% likely to accumulate some stats in the end of the Colorado State game but won't see a meaningful down unless disaster strikes... or the guy who also might not see a meaningful down but has a chance, let's say it's even just 20%, of being out there on a critical 3rd and long against OSU. I value the later much higher in importance to the team.
So that's my take. But of course this is a subjective exercise so there's nothing wrong with something different, I'm just making my argument for why Sabb/Berry could/should be much higher. Which one? Both.
If I have to pick it's probably Berry. You said he'll be in position to start in year 2 - if that's true it means Michigan will be trying to get him on the field quite a bit in 2022, so even aside from my OSU lens there is that consideration.
FWIW MaizeNBrew agrees with you. They have Sainristil and McBurrows as the 2-deep at nickel and include Perry as a backup corner.
DeleteI don't think this is how things will end up for a couple reasons -
1) I don't think Sainristil will be good enough to start over Will Johnson
2) Michigan's nickelbacks have generally been bigger players (safety shaped, not corner shaped) over the last decade (Hill, Hudson, Peppers). The change to 3 corners would be notable.
3) Moore is probably the ideal fit but he may need to stick at safety if Paige can't handle things. If Paige can't handle things - that means Berry/Sabb will be given opportunity.
https://www.maizenbrew.com/football/23193929/projecting-michigan-wolverines-depth-chart-fall-camp-2022-season-jim-harbaugh-college-football
Is it true Moten has a 40" vertical leap?
DeleteI have heard Moten does have a 40" vertical. I haven't seen it on video or anything.
Delete