Following the decommitment of Raylen Wilson and the commitment of several prospects, I think it's time for an updated look at the potential depth chart for 2023.
The following depth chart has removed these listed players from the 2022 depth chart due to expiring eligibility, even though some could return with a fifth year or COVID year exception:
- QB Alan Bowman (graduation)
- WR Ronnie Bell (graduation)
- WR Cornelius Johnson (graduation)
- WR Mike Sainristil (graduation)
- TE Erick All (graduation)
- TE Luke Schoonmaker (graduation)
- OL Ryan Hayes (graduation)
- OL Olu Oluwatimi (graduation)
- DE Taylor Upshaw (graduation)
- DT Julius Welschof (graduation)
- LB Michael Barrett (graduation)
- CB Gemon Green (graduation)
- S German Green (graduation)
- P Brad Robbins (graduation)
It also assumes that every currently rostered player and every currently committed prospect will be here in 2023, which is obviously not true.
Hit the jump for the depth chart.
QB: Cade McNamara (RS Sr.), J.J. McCarthy (Jr.), Jayden Denegal (So.), Alex Orji (So.)
RB: Blake Corum (Sr.), Donovan Edwards (Jr.), Kalel Mullings (Sr.), Tavierre Dunlap (RS So.), C.J. Stokes (So.), Cole Cabana (Fr.), Benjamin Hall (Fr.)
WR1: Andrel Anthony (Jr.), Darrius Clemons (So.), Cristian Dixon (RS So.)
WR2: Roman Wilson (Sr.), Amorion Walker (So.), Fredrick Moore (Fr.)
WR3: A.J. Henning (Sr.), Tyler Morris (So.), Semaj Morgan (Fr.)
TE: Matt Hibner (RS Jr.), Louis Hansen (RS So.), Marlin Klein (So.), Colston Loveland (So.), Deakon Tonielli (Fr.)
LT: Karsen Barnhart (RS Sr.), Jeffrey Persi (RS Jr.), Tristan Bounds (RS So.)
LG: Trevor Keegan (RS Sr.), Giovanni El-Hadi (RS So.), Alessandro Lorenzetti (So.)
C: Greg Crippen (Jr.), Raheem Anderson II (RS So.), Amir Herring (Fr.)
RG: Zak Zinter (RS Jr.), Reece Atteberry (RS Jr.), Connor Jones (So.)
RT: Trente Jones (RS Sr.), Andrew Gentry (So.)
SDE: Michael Morris (RS Sr.), Braiden McGregor (RS Jr.), Gabe Newburg (RS Sr.), T.J. Guy (RS So.), Dominick Giudice (RS So.), Derrick Moore (So.), Enow Etta (Fr.)
DT: Kris Jenkins Jr. (RS Jr.), Rayshaun Benny (RS So.), George Rooks III (RS So.), Mason Graham (So.), Brooks Bahr (Fr.)
NT: Mazi Smith (RS Sr.), Kenneth Grant (So.), Ike Iwunnah (RS So.)
Rush LB: Jaylen Harrell (RS Jr.), Kechaun Bennett (RS So.), Collins Acheampong (Fr.), Aymeric Koumba (Fr.)
OLB: Kalel Mullings (Sr.), Quinten Johnson (RS Sr.), Micah Pollard (So.)
MIKE: Junior Colson (Jr.), Joey Velazquez (RS Sr.), Tyler McLaurin (RS So.), Jimmy Rolder (So.)
WILL: Nikhai Hill-Green (RS Jr.), Jaydon Hood (RS So.), Deuce Spurlock (So.), Semaj Bridgeman (Fr.)
CB: D.J. Turner II (RS Sr.), Jalen Perry (RS Sr.), Myles Pollard (So.), Kody Jones (So.)
CB: Will Johnson (So.), Ja'Den McBurrows (Jr.), Eamonn Dennis (RS Jr.)
FS: Rod Moore (Jr.), Zeke Berry (So.), Damani Dent (So.)
SS: R.J. Moten (RS Jr.), Makari Paige (RS Jr.), Keon Sabb (So.)
K: Adam Samaha (Fr.)
P: Tommy Doman (RS So.)
You know what data I'd love to see? Some year to year data on the number of early departures. I'm talking guys with eligibility left who walk away, including NFL, grad transfers, conventional transfers, injuries etc.
ReplyDeleteCOVID has probably biased the data but it seems like you can probably expect a small recruiting class worth of departures (a.k.a. attrition) that aren't accounted for here. And it seems like the trend has increased pretty dramatically in the last decade. (but maybe it hasn't)
As Thunder notes the assumptions are "obviously not true" and getting into speculation of individual guys is unseemly (IMO) but it would be interesting to get a handle on how "off" the exercise is inherently.
FWIW when Thunder did this a year ago for the 2022 season there were about 100 names in the post. 25 of them were allocated incorrectly.
Deletehttps://touch-the-banner.com/way-too-early-2022-depth-chart-july-2021/
The 25 errors do NOT include:
1. recruits added between July and signing day (about 10 last year)
2. position switches (guys still on the roster but at different spots)
3. a couple omissions on the DL that I think were just accidentally missed in the post
The errors DO include:
1. 16 scholarship players listed who chose not to return
2. 5 recruits who chose to go elsewhere
3. 4 surprises (!) who were projected to leave but came back
Future depth chart "errors" below. Recruits noted with *
QB: Dan Villari (RS So.) out
--> Orji* in
RB: Hassan Haskins (RS Sr.) out
WR: Daylen Baldwin (RS Sr.), Tay’shawn Trent* out
--> Walker*, Clemons* and Bell(!) in
TE: Everyone returns including
--> Honigford (!) in
OL: Nolan Rumler (RS Jr.)
--> Oluwatami, Gentry*
DL: Chris Hinton (Sr.), Jordan Whittley (RS Sr.), Jack Stewart (RS Jr.), Davonte Miles*
--> Benny, Iwunnah, Graham*, Grant*
Rush LB: David Ojabo (RS Jr.), Mario Eugenio*, Kevonte Henry*
--> Moore*
LB: Anthony Solomon (RS Jr.), Cornell Wheeler (RS So.), Aaron Alexander* out
-> Rolder*, Spurlock*
CB: Andre Seldon (Jr.), George Johnson III (RS Jr.), Vincent Gray (RS Sr.), Darion Green-Warren (RS So.) out
--> Nobody in, aside from position switches or reallocations from safety
Safety: Daxton Hill (Sr.), R.J. Moten (RS So.)
-->Berry*, Sabb*
K/P: Moody(!) and Robbins(!) return
Please note: This is not a criticism of Thunder. It's just inherent to the methodology to be pretty wrong on this kind of thing so take a ~25% sized grain of salt to the exercise.
We see that some of the guys projected to leave can return - and there could have been more (Jeter, Steuber). We also see that some of the guys projected to stay ending up leaving, regardless of if they are expected to (e.g., Hill, Haskins) or not (Hinton, Ojabo, etc.).
Something that is 75% right is still pretty useful as long as we understand that it's expected to be 25% wrong.
DeleteI expect the 'standard error' to increase in the future as NIL and pay-for-play become commonly expected and player movement is increasingly normalized.
It's not unique to football either - basketball's recent recruiting classes have had very few players stick through to their full eligibility (2017 2/3, 2018 0/5, 2019 0/2, 2020 3/4 so far, 2021 3/6 so far).
Enjoy the quality depth while we have it. Apprehensions about Jim Harbaugh bolting the the NFL have thrown recriiting into a dumpster.
ReplyDeleteHas it though?
DeleteWe rank 30 something now but where we stand in July rankings is pretty irrelevant - just as it was when Brady Hoke had #1 ranked classes in spring and summer before getting passed by a slew of others later in the cycle.
Nebraska, Purdue, and Northwestern are all ranked ahead of M right now. LOL. Would anyone like to bet that Michigan ends with a lower ranked class than these 3? Or what about Arkansas and Texas Tech, ranked above M on the strength of 23 commits (compared to our 12).
The average recruit rank is more meaningful that the team totals right now - and that's not all the meaningful either. FWIW it says we'll end up top 10-20 range nationally again.
So I'm not saying M is going to end up with a top 5 class or that everything is peaches. Guys like Carr and Moore both dipping out of state is concerning. NIL changes are concerning and programs like MSU, TAMU, and UNC have surged. BUT, if we have another good year as expected, there's a pretty good chance Michigan will continue to bring in top 15 level talent like they have been doing most years. With the coaching advantage we have with Harbaugh, that means a top 10 program, as we've seen since Harbaugh got here.
The last 5 recruiting classes:
2022: #9
2021: #13
2020: #10
2019: #8
2018: #22
Maybe things are going to change and maybe they are not. If you're fretting about maybe dropping from top 10ish to top 20ish, note that the 2018 recruiting class formed the backbone of the 2021 team. That's even with some surprising early NFL departures (Mayfield, McGrone), injuries (Bell), and a bunch of transfers and busts. Guys like Hutch aren't going to be in every class ranked in the 20s, but key starters like Haskins, Hayes, Gray, Moody, etc. are.
Anyway, I would say recruiting concerns are probably a bit overstated right now. Even if you take a loss in Columbus as a given, if Michigan takes care of business and goes into that game ranked in the top 20 they should be in good shape on signing day.