Name: Blake Corum
Height: 5’8″
Weight: 210 lbs.
High school: Baltimore (MD) St. Frances
Position: Running back
Class: Junior
Jersey number: #2
Last year: I ranked Corum #17 and said he would be a backup running back (LINK). He ran 143 times for 952 yards and 11 touchdowns; caught 24 passes for 141 yards and 1 touchdown; and returned 12 kickoffs for 304 yards.
TTB Rating: 83
2022 season prediction: Starting running back; 200 carries for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns
Lots of talk about a short yardage back, but according to this analysis, Corum is just about the optimal size for a goal line RB - if such a thing exists.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.sports-central.org/sports/2018/08/07/does_size_matter_for_running_backs_2018_update.php
"The takeaway from this data isn't that smaller runners are more effective in short-yardage situations, as I implied in the previous version of this study. It's even simpler: size doesn't matter."
"When short RBs get a chance, however, they prove themselves over and over."
Big guys are more fun to watch though!
Love Blake Corum. I do wonder if he can survive a season's worth of Harball, or if he'll slow down after hits Hassan took (and gave)
ReplyDeleteThe Harbaugh era has seen a range of distributions of carries (and snaps) depending on the people in the room.
DeleteCarries by RB1 since 2015:
180
181
164
224
149
270
A couple big outliers there - the 224 and 270 are Higdon and Haskins in their senior years. Trusted vets who were proven workhorses. I don't think they'll go there with Corum. The low years were first time starters.
My guess for Corum is closer to 180 than 200. He had 144 last year. That was suppressed by the ankle injury but I don't see much reason to worry since that's the only one he has had in his career. He's very well built and he's quick and small enough to avoid some big hits.
The other big factor is QB should be a strength position now (with SR and SO) compared to being wonky last year (inexperienced starter and FR backup) so there should be a bit less reliance on the run overall.
The number of carries on the team has been more consistent but still shows a range. Since 2015:
491
574
529
549
495
575
Harbaugh has leaned on the run game more when he doesn't yet trust his QB (McNamara in 2021 and Speight in 2016) and a lot less (~80 carries fewer) when he has a proven starter he does (Rudock in 2015 and Patterson in 2019)
What does it mean for 2022:
I expect a bit more passing and lot less reliance on RB1 than in 2021. I also think CJ Stokes may get more responsibility at RB3 than most people expect. 2017 had the most carries by a RB3 in the Harbaugh era (Isaac with 88) but Stokes could top that. Just don't fumble kid.
2017 RB carry distribution went 164/135/88 between the top 3 backs (Higdon/Evans/Isaac) and I would not be shocked to see something similar this year (Corum/Edwards/Stokes). Maybe 180/130/90 since there are fewer bodies to distribute carries to on the roster and Edwards will probably a bigger dose of touches as a receiver than Evans did.
This take self destructs Saturday if Stokes doesn't see a bigger workload against Hawaii. My hunch is they kept his workload light in game 1 (6 carries) because they wanted to spread the ball around and ease the freshman in. We'll see if any of this stands the test of time of the next 36 hours.