Who's your QB? Cade McNamara started the game and completed 9/18 passes for 136 yards and 1 touchdown. It was not a great start. He threw an easy completion into the dirt, had guys drop a couple passes, and had to throw a couple balls away. One play looked like a bad interception initially, until you realized that tight end Erick All fell down coming out of his break; luckily, the pass was ruled incomplete after replayed deemed it hit the ground. Meanwhile, J.J. McCarthy played sporadically, completing 4/4 passes for 30 yards and running 3 times for 50 yards and 1 touchdown. I don't put too much stock in either performance. McNamara started off slowly last year and had a good season. McCarthy's package against an inferior team is not a large enough sample size to make an overall decision.
Hit the jump for more.
RB #3 is decided. Or is it? The question in the off-season was about replacing the role of short yardage back, and it was thought that Tavierre Dunlap or Kalel Mullings would step up. But instead of employing a short yardage back specifically, Michigan stayed with the top two guys, Blake Corum (13 carries, 76 yards, 1 TD) and Donovan Edwards (12 carries, 64 yards, 1 TD). The third guy appears to be freshman C.J. Stokes (6 carries, 35 yards), who looked eerily similar to Karan Higdon, albeit further along physically at this point in his career than Higdon was as a freshman in 2015. Stokes probably isn't a short yardage guy right now, but this game didn't really reveal whether there will be one or not, since success on the ground was steady, if not explosive. On a side note, Corum looked like his elusive, physical self, but Edwards still left a little to be desired when it comes to his running instincts. He's not as elusive or as patient as he's going to need to be if he takes on a lead role.
The receiver room is murky. Fifteen players caught passes in the game, and nobody caught more than two. Six of those players were tight ends, and three of the fifteen were walk-ons (Max Bredeson, Hunter Neff, Peyton O'Leary). The lone explosive play was a 61-yard bubble screen touchdown to Roman Wilson. Early on it seemed as if McNamara was trying to single out Cornelius Johnson, but some drops and inaccurate throws led to Johnson making just 2 catches for 19 yards on the day.
Better than the Joe Moore Award? We heard this summer that the offensive line could be better than the Joe Moore Award-winning line from a year ago, despite losing center Andrew Vastardis and right tackle Andrew Stueber. I would say reviews are mixed after one game. Part of the issue was that left tackle Ryan Hayes missed the game and his replacement, Karsen Barnhart, left with a leg injury. So for a good chunk of the game, left guard Trevor Keegan bumped out to left tackle and Giovanni El-Hadi was inserted at left guard. Colorado State had a decent front, and Michigan definitely won the line of scrimmage, but it wasn't a dominant performance. Also, Trente Jones gave up a sack at the right tackle position to CSU's top pass rusher, Mohamed Kamara.
The pass rush might still be good. Officially, Michigan notched 7 sacks and most of them came from unexpected places. Rather than monster pass rushers on the edge, Michigan got 2.5 sacks from defensive backs (Rod Moore, R.J. Moten, Mike Sainristil), 2.0 sacks from defensive tackles (Mason Graham, Kris Jenkins, Mazi Smith), 1.0 sack from an inside linebacker (Michael Barrett), and 1.5 sacks from edge players (Eyabi Anoma, Jaylen Harrell). That's probably more indicative of CSU's poor offensive line - a pretty immobile unit - than truly athletically dominant players for Michigan, but it's nice to see that Michigan could be a little more well rounded up front. Michigan only got 9.0 sacks from guys not named Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo all of last season, and the Wolverines notched 5.5 in this game alone from other positions.
The secondary wasn't challenged. It's hard to glean much from the performance of the secondary when CSU didn't have enough time to push anything downfield. The one downfield shot they hit was a late touchdown to #1 receiver Tory Horton, who beat freshman cornerback Will Johnson for a score. Otherwise, there were a ton of short throws and screens to just get the ball out of quarterback Clay Millen's hands. He completed 80% of his passes, but those 16 completions went for just 137 yards, the aforementioned touchdown, and 1 interception to Rod Moore. The Rams will put up some yards this season because of their tempo and scheme, though.
This is what Michigan should do. It would be great to get a shutout, but young guys need to play and get experience. And mistakes come with youth on the field. Michigan should beat a team like this by 40-ish points, and they did. Jim Harbaugh teams have been really consistent about beating the inferior teams soundly and winning the games they should. Obviously, the real measurements come against Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, and quality non-conference opponents.
Freshmen galore. With new redshirt rules in the past few years, it's pretty pointless to talk about the freshmen who played, since every single one of them can still redshirt. Perhaps it's more relevant to mention the few freshmen who didn't see the field:
- S Zeke Berry
- QB Jayden Denegal
- S Damani Dent
- OG Connor Jones
- TE Marlin Klein
- OT Alessandro Lorenzetti
- LB Deuce Spurlock
So 15 of the 22 true freshmen saw action in week one.
I believe I saw Spurlock (#15) playing relatively early in the game.
ReplyDeleteNot on the participation list, although Julius Welschof is.
DeleteAgree on a lot here, but not all
ReplyDelete- not much to make of the QB situation, but that's all the talk
- Edwards needs to cut up field, and there were a couple of issues with patience, but now he's breaking tackles. No more tripping over blades of grass, dude put power behind his pads, a got some YAC. The rest can come with more carries, but the strength & balance he lacked, seems to have been addressed in the off-season
- WRs: were they getting open? I'd be interested to hear from someone at the game, who could see the field
- yeah, it was ColoSt. But our D has given up plays to Middle Tenn St, SMU and others in recent years. It was refreshing to see them swarm
- will Johnson got beat on a good pass, but was picked on early too. He's got to be ready
- I thought Junior Colson looked great!
- please be ready McGregor, that looked so promising
Thank goodness Edwards spent his offseason doing balancing drills. Joining the ballet was the best decision he ever made.
DeleteI'm not fighting this year
DeleteGo Blue
It's a joke not a fight. Edwards didn't join the ballet. Edwards was also a good RB last year.
DeleteGo Blue
There is a lot of data for the QB position. Against CSU the baseline QB stat for a half, with a return starter, in the same system, with those weapons should be around 13 of 15, 180 yards, 3 TD's. The ball is out on time, on target, finding the right guy on the right match up, hitting them in stride.
DeleteBasically...Dealing. Slicing and dicing.
This...was not that. It looked like some guy making his first start, with new starters, in a new system.
Hi Anonymous, or should I say ArmChairQB,
DeleteYou have the data from last year. Lots of excellent QBs look like that in the first game of the year. But you're the expert, second guessing everything from the front of your TV screen.
Laugh all you want at ballet classes Lank, but Mo Hurst took ballet to help with balance and agility, and the whole fan base should thank his instructor!
DeleteOther observations: On his sack, Eyabi Anoma whipped around the RT and then bulled over the RB who was pass blocking. Even if he hadn’t sacked, he occupied two guys, so someone was going to.
Olu Oluwatimi looked excellent. He had lots of well executed combos and got to the second level fast., along with some nice pulls.
Trente Jones had some great pulls and moved people. He got bullied in pass pro by Mo Kamara, who is probably a really good player. He was the only player to play every snap, so I bet the coaches wanted him to get as many reps in as possible (also lots of OL injuries).
Mike Morris was a tone setter. He had the first TFL, the forced fumble that somehow didn’t count as a sack, and good poise in the presser. He’s been vocal about wanting to take the reins of leadership from Hutch and this was a great start.
Mike Sainristil and Mike Barrett have next-level versatility. Would love to see those two get drafted.
—Joby
Agree Joby! If Edwards had any balance issues that would be have been a great way to address them.
DeleteI don't agree that he did, which is the "fight" JE was referring too. There was an argument we had last year where he and Thunder asserted that Edwards was not a good runner (Thunder went so far as to call him not a good RB. I think JE just said he wasn't a good inside runner and accused him of falling over a blade of grass, or something to that effect.) This is after Edward's breakout against Maryland and Ohio State. I think the coaches having Edwards run between the tackles against OSU - with Haskins and Corum both available - proved my point. JE it seems, is not convinced. Thunder again raised the concern in the Edwards post a couple weeks back "It remains to be seen whether he can really run between the tackles with regularity". The "regularity" part is valid because it is clear that RB usage changed when Edwards stepped in for Corum - more pass catching and less inside running.
Where we all agree is that Edwards standout trait was pass catching. We also all agree he would likely improve from freshman to sophomore. How much and in what respects is subject to interpretation though. So is the explanation for why usage changed with Edwards -- was it due to a deficiency on his part or a strength of his (as a pass-catcher). I lean to the latter. The stats back that up - Edwards was very effective as a rusher, independent of all those catches, in 2021.
Nice recap and nice win for the team. In a game like this we can't really answer any of the big questions. Between Harbaugh's presser and this we do know a whole lot more about the depth chart.
ReplyDeleteI appreciate the list about freshman and have to agree that who didn't play is more interesting than who did. What a world.
Secondary: Got a couple turnovers but I wouldn't read too much into it. Sainristil started and Berry didn't play. Sometimes you open up a new season and find a moldy offseason take. Don't smell it -- just toss it in the garbage. Will Johnson didn't seem so different than other freshman on this day.
LB: NHG supposedly has a minor injury which is good because the point of these cupcakes is to learn on the job. Mullings looked OK but unexceptional so about what you expect. Maybe now we can let the RB thing go?
Edge: People thought we had no replacement for Hutch but it turns out we a half dozen! Probably not - caveats about the OL are warranted. This was still an eye-popping performance from the group. McGregor, Moore, and Anoma went through a stretch of terrorizing the QB and OT on every down. Necessary but not sufficient to matter vs OSU. Harrell had his moments, Morris was solid, but Upshaw was quiet (from what I noticed anyway). Welshof appears to be the odd man out but I'd like to see him reprise his roll as a passing down DT.
DL: Last year we struggled when rotating out Smith/Hinton but there's some hope that depth can be more stable this year. Some people misinterpreted Harbaugh's comments and expected Graham out there to start, but I thought he looked quite good.
OL: Agree they didn't dominate but they played well. This mostly gets a shrug. Interesting to me that El Hadi came in as the 8th OL instead of Persi or Atteberry. Good sign for him. Every year in the TTB countdown I argue that backup OL are underrated and this was an example with El Hadi playing a lot of "meaningful" downs - to the extent there were any at all in this game. Jones' screwup hopefully was a lesson learned and not an indicator of problems, but it's nice to have Barnhart as insurance.
WR: Deep as expected. Johnson showed why I don't trust him as a true #1 option like Mgoblog projected. Good player but I don't think there's a lot more there waiting to be unleashed.
TE: Harbaugh gonna Harbaugh. He listed about 8 guys on his depth chart and I think they all played. I'm surprised All was out there at all but I guess the NFL might be impressed he played hours after having a kid?
RB: Stokes is RB 3 and the goalline RBs look to be the top 2 RBs - just like last year. Haskins/Corum/Edwards is now Corum/Edwards/Stokes. Roles are shuffled but there's a pecking order. I'm not sure how much mystery there is here beyond figuring out when Stokes is going to be trusted enough to play on 3rd downs. That's not even very significant. Stokes looks good. It's late early for Dunlop.
The roots of the goalline concern come from fans thinking Edwards and Corum can't be effective between the tackles - but the coaches and players don't seem to share this view. Edwards, if anything, is too inclined to put his shoulder down and barrel into somebody - something to work on I guess but a mentality that will serve him well in short yardage. I remember people used to think Barry Sanders wasn't a good short yardage back because he was small. Hottake - Corum will be the guy and do well. Remember that Michigan wasn't all that great at short yardage last year even with a big tackle-breaker.
QB: Harbaugh is playing this perfectly. My guess is the inevitable thing is going to happen at some point but there's no harm in dragging it out. It's for the best, IMO. People are impatient.
Minter/Weiss - seem to confirm the continuity hypothesis. That's good news.
Regarding the OL, other players play meaningful downs, too. Kalel Mullings started the game since Nikhai Hill-Green was out. Maybe I should have ranked Mullings higher.
DeleteGood point. Mullings and El-Hadi saw similarly large roles in game 1. For both it may be temporary. If NHG is back by Maryland, Mullings may not see many meaningful downs. The same goes for Hayes (or Barnhart) coming back and El Hadi not playing.
DeleteStill - there's a big gap in where they were ranked , nearly 20 spots. El Hadi was ranked 58 and Mullings was ranked 39.
Perhaps a more relevant and fair comparison would be to look at what the ranking would be for the role (rather than the player). In other words, assume we have perfect knowledge of the depth chart and what the player's rank would have been. Of course we don't have advanced knowledge, but we can look at the TTB rank of their spot on the depth chart anyway.
In this case El Hadi could have been ranked 43, which is where the 8th OL (Persi) landed. (The 7th OL was Crippen at 35 but he's an OC.) Mullings would have been 28th (Barret's spot) as the 3rd ILB rather than the 4th. That's still a 15 spot difference.
So either way you get backup LBs ranked relatively high compared to backup OLs, and similar contributions from each.
The obvious counter point here is that El Hadi required 2 injuries to be inserted into a starter-like role (one before the game and one during) while Mullings was just one injury from being replaced. Indisputable, but there are 5 OL positions and 2 ILB positions so this isn't exactly a surprise. Twice as many guys = twice as many injuries.
I have no data to support it but it seems like we're more likely to rely on a 7th/8th OL against MSU/PSU/OSU than we are a 3rd ILB.
Also, a very clean game. What, one penalty ... signs of a well-coached & disciplined team
ReplyDeleteYou didn't talk about the QB battle. I'm wondering if this is Jim Harbaughs more noble way of changing QBs than how other coaches handle it.
ReplyDeleteJJ is the most physical gifted QB to ever play at Michigan, with Henson #2
ReplyDeleteJJ has the potential to be the first overall pick.
Cade will not get drafted.
The end.
JJ first pick overall, hey son? Cade won't be drafted? The back up QB is the most popular player on the team. You arm chair QBs see mirages, fantasies, escapism, of what you are wishing the back up QB to be, and what the starting QB is. It's so easy to throw crap all over the internet, and feel like your an expert.
DeleteI have been/am defending McNamara, even though really, I don't have a dog in this particular fight, but the interception that was called back was up there with the very worst balls I've ever seen. I don't think that there's any doubt that McNamara is feeling the pressure here in a big way.
ReplyDeleteI also think that there can be absolutely no doubt that McCarthy brings an element to the offense with his ability to run it that Cade McNamara can't match. But ... the kid is a 63-ish percent career passer with a very low turnover rate. But ... again ... he has to be wonderfully/incredibly efficient to be able to compete with what McCarthy brings to the table. He wasn't that in the first game, which is not to say that he can't be.
A piecemeal offensive line wasn't extraordinarily helpful to McNamara and very helpful in putting the spotlight on McCarthy's unique gifts. Guys streaming in here and there provided McCarthy with some real nice lanes to hit up into. And then, he didn't make any mistakes in trying to extend plays and as a result, turning little losses into big ones.
So, in a nutshell, I'm thinking that McNamara has got to be damn near perfect to hold McCarthy off, he wasn't on Saturday. McCarthy just has to avoid costly mistakes, which he did Saturday. Advantage, McCarthy ... so far.
Coach Harbaugh threw a curve ball at Cade McNamara days before the opener. Cade lacking confidence because of it lay all at the door step of Jim Harbaugh. You throw doubt at your starting QB, and what do you think will happen. Not only did it affect McNamara's play, but everyone elses. Coach Harbaugh doubts McNamara, so does All, and stumbles on a plant foot. Coach doubts McNamara, and so does Ronnie Bell and drops an beautifully thrown pass. Coach doubts McNamara, and thus Cornelius Johnson looks contorted on catching a pass that is a little high, that he should have caught in stride over his head, with a little leap, and possibly got a TD with. Coach Harbaugh doubts McNamara, and so does the team, and celebrates excessively with McCarthy on the sidelines, over scoring a QB option running TD, the success of which was set up by how great the run game had been doing before McCarthy gets in. But the team acts like it was all because McCarthy was in the game at QB---because the coach is showing confidence in McCarthy.
DeleteThis bad start to the season by Cade McNamara lays completely at the feet of Coach Jim Harbaugh.
Yeah ... not! McNamara is responsible for all that lies in McNamara's head. Nobody else. Harbaugh told the world it's even, he outlined the process, as well as the criteria for winning the competition. So, win the competition, or not, as the case may be.
Delete@Roanman
DeleteI think you are right about the differences between the 2 - if the passing is even close, if the gap (real or perceived) in turnover risk is narrow, then McCarthy has a running ability and arm strength that Cade can't compete with.
I disagree with most things Anon wrote. The only difference I see between 2022 and 2021 is that Cade feels like he's earned the job. And he's right! But life isn't fair.
The writing is on the wall - but the story isn't over yet.
@Anon.
DeleteI don't think anything has changed with McNamara since he was similarly inconsistent in the past. He had a rough first drive and after that he settled in and looked good. If a bad start is hanging 50 points on your opponent, I can live with that kind of failure.
Harbaugh announced his QB decision to the public a full week before the game and probably to the team and the QBs before that. His decision is "the competition carries on" while offering effusive praise to both QBs.
If there is doubt it is not new doubt - as the gameplans early last year showed.
If there is pressure, it is not new pressure. Walking into Lincoln, East Lansing, Happy Valley, and Madison is pressure - not Colorado State or Hawaii at home.
If there it is competition, it is not new competition. Cade said as much. McCarthy was there last year too. Fans were clamoring then too. Before that Milton, McCaffrey, and company.
If there are drops, they are not new either. Bell had some big ones, and Johnson's catch rate is unexceptional at best.
I wasn't at the game so can't speak to differences in cheering on the team, but didn't see any signs of it last year or on TV. Given the tone of the rest of the comments I am skeptical. From all reports the culture on the team is in a great place and both QBs are supported.
I can't agree Roanman. You can't show doubt in your 22 year old college QB in front of the whole world, and think he's going to respond like a seasoned NFL QB.
DeleteHarbaugh has done nothing but express confidence in Cade McNamara, and been effusive in his praise of him.
DeleteThe problem here is that McCarthy is a superior athlete and has been shrinking the holes in his game to the point where he may or may not be better. In either event, the race is too close to call. And, this is P5 football on a national scale with national stakes, national exposure, national money ... everything. Incumbency holds no guarantees in this environment, nor should it.
That McNamara is getting the yips or whatever word or phrase you wish to use to describe the emotions he may be experiencing, or not, is perfectly understandable and he has my deepest empathy, he's in a double plus tough position.
But this is the big time, he's gotta win the job.
I will say again, the back up QB is the most popular player on the team. His abilities border on the stuff legends are made of .
Delete"But this is the big time, he's gotta win the job."
DeleteYou're right. He's going to have to win it. This way of Coach doing it was a curve thrown at him. And this first game is not going to be enough. He needs to be made starter in game 3, against UConn. He will have had a chance to reset his sights on his job. Expecting him to show his best in one game, at the very beginning of the season at that, was probably too much on his mind. He may look day and night different if he's given another shot in week 3. I remain thinking he's the best leader among all the QBs on the team.
If you can't hit a curve maybe you aren't really a good hitter. #leadership
ReplyDelete