Name: Nathan Efobi
Height: 6’4"
Weight: 295 lbs.
High school: Cumming (GA) South Forsyth
Position: Offensive guard
Class: Freshman
Jersey number: N/A
Last year: Efobi was a senior in high school (LINK). He made 4 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, and 1 forced fumble on defense.
TTB Rating: 68
Efobi was a pretty big get for Michigan in the 2023 class, signing with the Wolverines over offers from Georgia, Miami, and Penn State, among others. He ended up as a 247 Composite 4-star, the #19 interior offensive lineman, and #345 overall. He committed in November and signed in December, and he will join the Wolverines this summer.
From an on-the-field perspective, I'm not sure how much Efobi will have an impact. I gave him a TTB Rating of 68 because I think he has a lot of work to do. Even if considering the overall ranking, only 259 players were drafted in the 2023 NFL Draft, so if he ends up as the 345th best player in three to five years, that puts him as an undrafted free agent. Of course, NFL Draft results don't always mirror recruiting rankings, but it's important to keep some perspective. Efobi will probably need at least a year of development to be field-ready, and Michigan has a ton of legitimate linemen, so I think a redshirt is a safe bet.
Prediction: Redshirt
Speaking of recruiting rankings the 247 class calculator gives Michigan 10.7 points for Efobi (an unexceptional 4-star who will take a few years before he sees the field) and 0.88 for LaDarius Henderson - an immediate starter who was projected as a possible first round NFL pick had he gone pro... 0.9 points.
ReplyDeleteSee for yourself: https://247sports.com/college/michigan/Season/2023-Football/ClassCalculator/
The rankings are dynamic depending on the overall class but even if you took everyone else out, 247 gives the two equivalent values (or close to it): 23 vs 20 points for Henderson and Efobi.
Now granted - recruiting rankings are inherently uncertain and variable (which star-gazers tend to forget) - but you can see that even if you look at this evaluation in the most favorable light possible (Henderson and Efobi are equivalent) -- that's absolutely nuts.
Yes, Efobi could, possibly, be a 4-year starter and light the world on fire and Henderson can flop -- anything is possible. But one guy is a high school kid who is a roll of the dice and based on his recruiting ranking projects to - as Thunder points out - a UDFA in the NFL. While Henderson is already a multi-year starter with all conference honors and an all american candidate who could be playing in the NFL most likely. It's a fist full of gold vs an axe pick.
What does it mean? -- the recruiting rankings in the portal era are mostly trash. Until they figure out how to value guys like Henderson on a scale that aligns appropriately with high variance high school recruits it really doesn't mean much.
My hot take here is that Michigan's recruiting class is WAY better than 17th in the country. Because their transfer class (ranked 25th LOL) alone is going to be more impactful than a bunch of the classes ranked above them. 1 specific example: Clemson (who is mostly ignoring the portal)
DeleteI agree, but I'm not quite sure how to combine the two. Naturally, transfer portal guys are going to be ready-to-go players for a place like Michigan, which recruits quality players out of high school and only needs to fill spots. Meanwhile, some places need to recruit a ton of guys from the transfer portal to fill holes. So if Colorado gets 60 so-so kids from the transfer portal, is that necessarily a better class than if Michigan takes 5 high-quality plug-and-play starters?
DeleteThe transfer portal is kind of a necessary thing, I guess, but it also creates a mess.
Yeah I agree it's a mess. I think emphasizing quality over quantity is the critical piece to compare across teams. Look at the top 20 guys (regardless of high school or portal) in the class and after that it's usually noise subject to team-specific things that don't really need to be evaluated. Like Colo has just a ton of turnover, that's not necessarily good or bad. And teams who need kickers shouldn't be marked down.
Delete247 already sort of do this in their calculations (adjusting individual player value down for bigger classes) but not that well. the missing piece is sure-things from the portal getting valued more than high school kids. Somebody like Michael penix or Henderson needs to count as a six star imo. even aj barner... He's already at least up to a typical 4 star. Should be valued accordingly. And how many high school ilbs are you really going to take ahead of hausman? Not many for a proven starter with plenty of upside.