Name: Cornelius Johnson
Height: 6’3″
Weight: 208 lbs.
High school: Greenwich (CT) Brunswick
Position: Wide receiver
Class: Fifth year senior
Jersey number: #6
Last year: I ranked Johnson #13 and said he would be a starting wide receiver with 36 catches for 560 yards and 5 touchdowns (LINK). He started all fourteen games and made 32 catches for 499 yards and 6 touchdowns.
TTB Rating: 87
Johnson had his most exciting season in 2022, and that season came down to one game: Ohio State. In just that one game, he caught 4 passes for 160 yards and 2 touchdowns. (In other words, he had just 28 catches for 339 yards and 4 touchdowns the rest of the year.) But the Buckeyes couldn't tackle him and couldn't cover him in space with a backup safety, so some of my favorite memories from last year have Johnson running free in Ohio Stadium on the way to two huge scores, both in distance and meaning.
As mentioned above, the rest of Johnson's 2022 year was largely forgettable. He followed up that performance against OSU with 1 catch for 9 yards against Purdue and 2 catches for 30 yards against TCU. In fact, on seven different occasions last year, he was held to just 1 or 2 catches.
But all of that took place in the Ronnie Bell era, and the Ronnie Bell era is over. Bell wasn't the fastest or tallest guy, but he always managed to get open and gain yards after the catch. Someone else needs to step up as the go-to guy. I'm not so sure it will be Johnson, but he has an opportunity. Johnson is a good route-runner with decent speed, but he has yet to really show he can catch the ball consistently in traffic. I think Johnson might lead the team in receiving without actually being the most important receiver, because the guy who should benefit most from Michigan's dominant running game is speedster Roman Wilson. But Bell caught 62 balls last season, and those chain-moving catches need to go somewhere. I expect Johnson to have a better statistical year and for some of those slot targets to be diverted more toward Johnson and Wilson, along with likely slot starter Tyler Morris.
Prediction: Starting wide receiver; 48 catches for 700 yards and 7 touchdowns
Solid but far from elite. I like CJ, and loved watching him run free at The Shoe, but those (Bell) touches will be spread out
ReplyDeleteI remain a CJ skeptic, though my criticisms have softened. I still think he's the weakest player on the starting lineup. Luckily being WR2 in Michigan's TE-heavy offense makes that not a big problem for Michigan's offense. That and Johnson is far from a liability.
ReplyDeleteJohnson is a solid player and no one can take OSU away from him. But his catch rate is unexceptional. I think people latch on to his size but Bell (overall receiving ability, route-running, toughness, and hands) and Wilson (zooooooooom zoom) were better WRs overall. Size is beneficial and Johnson's a solid route runner too, with decent speed on top of it. But the big issue is something that I don't see the senior fixing - he does not have great hands and thus can't be trusted to catch contested balls. That would be true if he was 6'9.
Thunder brings up replacing Bell, which is a huge opportunity but I think that production will go first to Loveland (as the go-to target), then to Wilson, then to Morris (as the new part-time starting 3rd WR). Expecting Johnson to stick in the 500-600 yard range on the season and slight downtick in TDs.
In terms of TTB rank I don't have him in the top 20 which is admittedly weird for a starting WR. I just think Michigan can get by fine without him and he could be replaced by Clemons or others without much of a hiccup.
I put Johnson behind Banner. TE2 is more important in this offense than WR2. And TE3 is, IMO much more unsure than WR3. In other words it's likely to be a bigger drop off there.
DeleteAt TE3 Michigan has maybe Bredeson (a walk-on who is more H-back than TE) and then a senior who has done very little in his career. After that it's freshman and a raw German - most TEs need more seasoning. Meanwhile at WR we also have a walk-on people like, plus a couple sophomores who have gotten hype and played some meaningful downs last year (Morris and Clemons), plus a trio of freshman that are getting hyped up. Things at TE are pretty quiet besides hype for Loveland and praise for Banner.
I can agree with a lot of what Lank wrote. And it's because in Jim Harbaugh's offense - that runs first & often - the #2 & #3WR just aren't as impactful to the team as say, #1TE, maybe the #2TE, and certainly not RB1 (some years I would add RB2)
ReplyDeleteTo JE's point, TEs are more important for run blocking. While yes you need both WR and TE have to execute blocks for the run game to be successful, the TEs are physically closer to the play and thus closer to the OL's level of importance in outcomes. So, aside from any receiving considerations, a TE's blocking importance is somewhere between a starting OL and a starting WR.
DeleteBut that's more of tie-breaker than the primary rationale for my argument about the importance of TE2 vs WR2. My opinion (that TE2 is more important than WR2) for 2023 is there even if purely looking at receiving.
The RB usage during the Harbaugh era is not out of line with most schools but if you look at the % of targets to TEs I would bet you we are in the top 10 nationally. For 2023 we might be similar to Iowa and Bowers-era Georgia. For a team that strives to be balanced - as the coaches have reiterated this offseason - but generally still runs more than passses, all those TE targets must come from somewhere. That is clearly at the expense of WRs. Tthough TBF Michigan also doesn't throw to RBs very much, which is why I'm a little skeptical of the insistence in Edwards playing a big role as a receiver).
Anyway, last year was a bit of a mess because we had 3 different guys wearing the TE1 hat over the course of the year but in 2021 TE1 had 2 less catches than WR1. In 2017, a very bad year for Michigan WRs, TE1 had 10 more catches than WR1. WRs get more targets in aggregate and more yards for sure, but in some years the gap is not that big.
With Loveland being, potentially, a generational receiving talent and Bell out the door, you could see the TE targets distributed in a nationally distinct way. WRs will get more than TEs in aggregate presumably, but TE1 could get more than WR1, and TE2 could get more than WR3. I think we'll see both this year in targets if not yards.
In some years, maybe most years, I think you could give WR3 and edge over TE2 but this year I think we have a much more proven player at TE2 and a much bigger difference between the next guy on the depth chart.
WR is an important position at Michigan too - the enormous struggles of the 2017 season were primarily on the QB but there was a regression in performance from Wilton Speight (even pre-injury in 2017) that can be attributed to the loss of Butt-Darboh-Chesson and the substandard replacements who took their spots - but, for this roster, I think TE2 is a bigger deal than WR2 especially because we lost All, Schoonmacher, and Bell.
Essentially if Loveland or Barner go down I think Michigan will pivot to a more WR-heavy offense rather than further increase the use of guys like Hibner or Bredeson. That might not be a terrible thing in the end, but it would be a shift from where I think the offense is trying to go as we enter the season.
the RB usage under Harbaugh isn't out of line with most schools?
DeleteLast year, Corum finished 13th in carries, despite missing 3½ games ... apply his per game average, and he shoots past Ill Chase Brown to second highest in the nation
Even in 2021, HH - with both Corum & Edwards in the RB Room - finished fifth in the nation in rush attempts
Harball is a run first, run often Offense. If he has a legit RB1,that guy will get an extraordinary amount of carries
The coaches recognize this, as do recruits. With a returning playoff QB, two Senior WRs, two stud TEs and another monster OL, it's only sensible for them to want more balance in their approach for 2023
"If he has a legit RB1,that guy will get an extraordinary amount of carries"
DeleteI don't know how extraordinary it is to be in the top 10 (I would not consider a top 10 finish for Michigan in the AP to be extraordinary for example) but I agree in principle with the heavy use of RB1. Which is the case I'm making for why RB2 and RB3 aren't necessarily very important.
But it depends on the season. In 2020 when we had 4 NFL backs the split was a lot more equal.
The point is this -- Michigan runs the RBs more than others, but you're overstating how different it is. Teams run more when they are ahead, and we are ahead most of the time. In terms of passing percentage, MIchigan finished 120th in 2022...and 70th in 2019...and 10th in 2020.
I'll exclude that last outlier and look at all the other years:
Pass % rank by season under Harbaugh
64, 104, 100, 105, 70, 108, 120
Average = 95th
So on average Michigan is 95th out of 131 teams. The 95th ranked team passes 45% of the time while an average team passes 48%. A whopping difference of 3%. 3 plays out of 100.
I would call that pretty close to typical. Certainly not a coach/team that is extraordinarily different. But don't listen to me or the data. Listen to the man hisself tell you about pretty close.
“I see this being a 50/50 run-pass split,” Harbaugh said. “We’ll see. We’ll see how the games go — we’ll see how the season goes. But I bet when it’s all said and done at the end of the season, it’ll be pretty darn close to 50/50 with the amount of times we throw it and the amount of times we run it.”
Lank, you did some homework! But, you misunderstood the assignment (back to that in a bit)
DeleteTop 10 nationally (out of 130 programs) is extraordinary, or at least "out of line with most schools"
No spinning around that
Anyway, the context I asked for weeks ago - several times - was:
How does your 40% threshold compare to the rest of the conference? (specifically, our biggest threats in PennSt & ohio)
Playoff contenders? (they win a lot of games by big scores too)
How does it compare to all teams nationally?
How many non-Academy P5 programs have run at a greater rate than JH in consecutive years?
A new one: JH has finished in the 100s five times in seven seasons (2020 doesn't count). Has any other non-Academy P5 program done that? Even close?
on the Harbaugh quote, he said that recently, not in 2015.
DeleteAiming closer to 50-50 split implies 1) 39% isn't good enough; and 2) with all the experience returning, this is a good a year as he's had to try
@JE
DeleteYou live in a world where 43% passing and 46% are extraordinarily different. I live in a world where they are pretty similar. That's the difference between Harbaugh and typical.
Aiming for closer to 50-50 split implies Harbaugh values balance. This is obvious to everyone besides you. You haven't understood what Harbaugh wants through 8 years. I'm not optimistic that is going to change.
Hint: it's not about plowing a big RB up the middle over and over again.
40% is your threshold not mine. Michigan has had 1 of 8 years where they fell barely below that number. It's not as meaningful as you think. Harbaugh is not Paul Johnson. Sorry to disappoint.
Lank, I never said that. 46 or 49% is not the point. I'll repeat:
DeleteHow does our pass-rush ratio compare to the rest of the conference? (specifically, our biggest threats in PennSt & ohio)
How does it compare to all teams nationally?
How many non-Academy P5 programs have run at a greater rate than JH in consecutive years?
JH has finished in the 100s five times in seven seasons (2020 doesn't count). Has any other non-Academy P5 program done that? Even close?
You're excuse in the Tyler Morris thread was that we are up big a lot, so we run more ... in the last two years, five other teams have been in the playoffs What was their pass-rush ratio? At least in the case of ohio, Bama & UGa, they all win games by big margins, have NFL bound RBs & monstrous OLs ... certainly they are a fair comparison, for context?
Do your homework and, if I'm wrong, it should be easy to point out
That is the point. That you keep missing. Backup yours with data or don't. I have with mine.
DeleteI already posted the rankings for you. They point out what nobody is arguing about -- Michigan runs more than other teams. We knew that in 2015 before Harbaugh got here. Michigan always has. That's not the point and it's never been the point.
What you ignore and continue to ignore is the scale of difference between teams. How different are they? For Michigan's peer teams -- Is it 3%? 5% 8%? There's different ways to slice and dice and you're invited to "do your homework" beyond just citing 39% in 2022 and the national rank.
You insist that Michigan is dramatically different than other programs in it's offensive philosophy. And I agree when it comes to reliance on TEs. But you insist its about how they use their RBs and there I disagree with you. I've BEEN disagreeing with you on your misunderstanding of Harball and your RB takes.
Go ahead and point out the which programs that are peers to Michigan have a substantially different percentage of run plays. If it's within single digits of % of plays is it really worth emphasizing over and over in your takes?
In my mind OSU and Michigan are as close to opposites as we have today for run first and pass first teams. OSU's got the best WRs in the country. We've got the best RBs. Yet, even last year, when Michigan ran a higher % than ever, the difference in pass attempts was 40...on the season. A handful of plays a game. Is this the basis of your narrative?
Our top RBs had substantially more carries in 2022 (442 vs 346) but in 2019 OSU's RB1 had more carries than our RB1, RB2, and RB3. Combined.
In other words even when teams are very different in they are not all that different.
Here is the range of pass% for teams that finished in the top 10 ranked in order of pass % 39, 42, 45, 46, 46, 47, 48, 48, 51, 60.
If you don't know what the bell curve is you should look that up. The vast majority of teams, and especially successful ones are passing the ball within a 10% band. We can pretend like these differences are enormous but they are not. They are typically within 5% of 50/50 one way or the other. Even a 10% difference is not all that big and if you extend to 40-60% range you start getting almost everybody including most of the outliers.
Michigan under Harbaugh have averaged passing 43% of the time. (Excluding 2020). So if Harball is 43% historically... and the the vast majority of top teams are falling in 42%-48% range... how important is this difference you insist on as the basis of your narrative and analysis?
Michigan IS run first. But they pass often. This is obvious.
DeleteMichigan is an outlier nationally in ranking but not all that different in terms of % of play calls. They are throwing 43% of the time! Less when they are winning big (which is often) and more when they have to compete toe-to-toe with a peer.
This means that their RBs are incrementally more important than other teams. But what other teams? OSU just had a 2000 yard rusher a few years ago. TCU just outrushed us by 80 yards. Georgia is just like us but with a tougher schedule. When we played each other guess which team threw more and which ran more.
This is more like a molehill than a mountain and as the foundation for Michigan exceptionalism (vs the NFL or Michigan's college peers) it's sand-solid.
If you don't buy the data than just remember that Harbaugh is a former NFL coach whose program is serving as an NFL pipeline now. He's telling you himself that 50-50 is the goal but "we'll see how the games go". For the definition of Harball you can ask Harbaugh or you can ask JE.
Michigan absolutely wants to establish a dominant run game but they also absolutely want to be dangerous through the air so that when the going gets tough they can go out and win a shootout. In this way they are not different than Alabama, OSU, Georgia, etc. Harbaugh has his personal preferences but above all else dude is focused on winning and smart enough to know he needs to evolve to do that.
Harball means a balanced offense. So does Dayball, Sabinball, and Smartball. Because those guys like winning. In college that is going to look like running more than passing for the simple reason that at least 10-30% of plays are going to be in non-competitive situations. Beyond that the preferences in style might be 5% one way or another.
You're changing your stance, AND mine
DeleteI never said Harbaugh was Paul Johnson. I never insisted (or even said) MICHIGAN was dramatically different ... I said we run first, pass often. That is 100% correct, and all you've done is talk around it
You used Harbaugh's quote, which is stating a GOAL. Harbaugh WANTS more balance, and that's okay. He sees what's obvious: B1G East & playoff caliber teams are passing a lot more often than we are (PennSt & Bama opposite us). Kirby Smart, Jim Knowles (lol) & Sonny Dykes game planned toward one objective: stop MICHIGAN's run to win the game. Jim heard them, saw the results, and knows THIS year he has the resources to be MORE balanced, and wants to get closer to 50% ... he's not listening to Lank, and believing we're already there
LOL. You said "run first run often" and I said "run first pass often". You argued. Now you are claiming I'm the one changing the story.
DeleteI'll remind you that the genesis of this debate is in your insistence, against available evidence, that RBs matter much more for Harball than other programs because we run so much more. This is based on your definition of Harball. My retort is that Michigan is not so different from typical college programs especially peer programs that spend a lot of time being up.
I gave you Harbaughs goal (50%) alongside Harbaugh's history (43%). You are ignoring, still, that these are not so far apart. I also gave you some peer programs - the vast majority of which fall in the 40% range.
Penn State? They run more than they pass too. A whopping pass rate of 48% last year is the best you got? Their QBs attempted 50 more passes than Michigan over the season. They passed less often than Michigan as recently as 2019 (and 2020 too*).
We all know Harbaugh isn't going to get to 50% (unless things go very very wrong early in the year.) but I'm happy to bet you 10 "You are right" posts that Harbaugh will be over 40% passing and that will put him in the same 40-50% range that a majority of college teams reside in.
@JE
DeleteI'll add that while you insist 2020 "doesn't count", and I'm always amendable to tossing out the outliers for the sake of a broader understanding, it IS highly relevant to the debate here.
There's a reason why that year was an outlier it was that every game was competitive. Michigan's QB situation was pretty bad most would say and Michigan's RB situation was the best collection of RB talent ever assembled in a Michigan locker room. Yet they passed all the time? Where was the Harball there? What happened? Did we lose our identify?
Of course you already know -- Michigan was playing competitive games week in and week out in 2020. That's the BIG factor that changed the run/pass mix.
Michigan's defense stunk and we played most of the season from behind. Even though we had a QB who was portrayed as a strong runner and inaccurate passer and even though we had a couple big burly power backs in Haskins and Charbonnet to go alongside Corum and Evans, we threw more than we ran.
Even in 2020 the team ran more when they were ahead (against Minnesota). The rest of the year they played from behind and passed more.
In other words -- it's mostly situational. Not philosophical.
Ah yes, it was me ... I started the arguing ... okay Lank
DeleteDo we run first? Do we run often? Can you answer that?
As for 2020, my guess is multiple reasons:
1) Josh Gattis was trusted with the offense. Even in 2019, we passed a bit more (senior QB & speed in space transition)
2) our defense was pourous, meaning we had catching up to do
3) they "thought" Milton would eventually start connecting on some of those deep balls, and they were needed (reason 2)
I think 1 & 3 have a heavy role in this: Minnesota we ran once in the first drive, and that was Milton. Sparty we started with one RB carry on the first drive. Second drive leaned pass. Indiana started with favoring the run. We came out passing against Wisconsin. By rutgers, the leash on Milton was (rightfully) short, and we were ... balanced
We don't have to talk about 2020, but that's what happened
You said we passed more because we were losing. But we passed more from the opening drive in every game except Indiana, but you're right; that can be explained by the Milton finger injury
DeleteIn 2020 we went all in on Gattis speed in space: we were pass first & pass often, and it went terribly wrong. We all watched the summer of 2021, when Jim recommitted himself & the program, and the season that followed
More than what? I'm not going to do an analysis of opening drives to prove you wrong but I am confident it would show you that Michigan doesn't run anything like 60% of the time on opening drives. Last year opening drive against OSU - 7 of the first 10 plays were pass plays. Last year opening drive against MSU - 4 of the first 7 plays were pass plays.
Delete"Run first run often"? Only when we have a lead.
It's what I'm telling you again and again - when a game is competitive teams are going to be balanced. If they are down they will pass more. If they are up they will run more.**
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The thing about the narrative of Harbaugh not being committed to the program is that it is extremely insulting to Harbaugh. The off field stuff for 2020 is pretty easy to explain by COVID off the field and personnel on the field. You really need not look past the OL that lost 4 of 5 starters in the offseason and then Mayfield to an injury 2 games in. But if you want to, you can reference the TTB countdown you can look at all the guys who got hurt and/or opted out from the top 20.
https://touch-the-banner.com/2020-season-countdown-list/
We don't need to invent voodoo stories when the explanation is right there in front of our faces.
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**The biggest outlier from that is that teams who are getting blown out and have no chance of winning will ALSO run more, just to get the damn game over with. This is a college phenomena that is dramatically less common in the parity-laden NFL.
More than what? We passed more than we ran. Isn't that what we've been talking about, or are you moving the target again?
DeleteSo using the season average is not good, we should use a two year aggregate. Going play by play is not good either, it's too isolated ... seems like you're being selective with data, in order to fit your narrative again
And I have shown you - using your own link - that MICHIGAN ranks in the bottom quarter nationally in pass-run ratio, even behind other playoff caliber teams. I even challenged you to find ONE who ran more often in consecutive years
That's not voodoo (strawman), it's fact based on data
If we are talking about Harbaugh's philosophy and identity (and we are) - we should use the 7 year average - that's what would be most representative of Harbaugh. Unless you have his whole career available. The more data the better.
DeleteI am the one who showed YOU the data, rank and percentage. For multiple years. Not just 1.
I know some people can't keep track unless the conversation is as simple as possible. Voodoo here refers to your assertion that Harbaugh wasn't committed. The data is that Michigan's run/pass split is only a few percentage points off of typical.
Your Michigan Football Fairytales might be believable to children. But for adults they are easy to disprove with facts.
Okay, in five of Harbaugh's seven years, we ranked in the HUNDREDS nationally for pass-run ratio. That was easy 😂
DeleteI never questioned Harbaugh's commitment. This is more strawman, following my post of "he REcommitted himself"
This is backed by firing a chunk of his staff, hiring younger guys, a defense built for ohio, a run game designed like his brother's, and losing a ton of weight, looking like a new man at B1G media days for 2021. Read what the players say: that "beat ohio or die trying" was a culture change. This is true for those who stayed, and even guys like McNamara who left
But when you can't prove a point, try moving the target. When that doesn't work, mislead & lie
We are a balanced offense that leans to the run game more than most. Run first when ahead. Pass first when behind. Like everyone else. We run and pass often because our defense is good and tends to keep opponent possessions short. We are not that weird.
ReplyDeleteIn my view 2020 (57% passing) could entirely be explained by the fact that Michigan spent most of it's time playing from behind. In contrast to 2022 (39% passing) where Michigan spent most of its time playing from ahead.
But I will grant you that Gattis is a viable theory too, but it doesn't hold up. 2019 when Gattis was already here was a more Harbaughesque 47% pass, substantially less than 2020.
Trust Milton more than Patterson? I don't buy that at all. Milton was a brand new starter without much experience on a team that had very little time to practice before the season started. If ever there was a chance to pound the ball on the ground it was then. Furthermore, they threw a ton when McNamara took over for Milton also. Backup QB, RS Freshman, 36 pass attempts? Again, they were playing from behind - that's the thing. I am highly confident that they trusted JJ more than Joe - so this theory really fails the sniff test.
Otherwise, remember that Milton got hurt sometime during or after MSU (51 pass attempts and 12 rushes later) and around the same time the OL lost Hayes and Mayfield. The OL was in tatters and constant flux. That was a problem for running and passing (and QB health - both got hurt) but it's particularly discouring for the run game - even with 4 NFL backs.
It's a terrible time to think about 2020 so I'm going to move on.