Name: Derrick Moore
Height: 6’3″
Weight: 258 lbs.
High school: Baltimore (MD) St. Frances
Position: Defensive end
Class: Sophomore
Jersey number: #8
Last year: I ranked Moore #72 and said he would be a backup defensive end (LINK). He made 8 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hurries, and 1 pass breakup.
TTB Rating: 83
Moore showed up bigger last season than some expected and was listed at 279 pounds. He filled in nicely as a backup defensive end and showed a nice burst despite the extra weight, making 2 total sacks, which is a nice showing for a freshman. His sacks came in mop-up duty against Maryland and Indiana, but they're sacks nonetheless, and he had some impressive stops in the run game, too.
This season Moore is down to a listed 258 pounds, and I have to assume the strength and conditioning staff planned the cut (along with the coaches). Michigan did not generate a ton of pass rush off the edge last season, and leading sacker Mike Morris - who is playing some defensive tackle for the Seattle Seahawks now - was more of a bull rush specialist. Morris's weight loss may be an attempt by the Wolverines to get a little more explosive when going after the quarterback. I expect Moore to be a backup to Braiden McGregor, and I expect him to start to emerge as a player Michigan fans can get excited about over the next couple years.
Prediction: Backup defensive end
Seems like a low rank to me. Moore had one of the best freshman seasons we've seen from an edge in a long while. He's vying for a starting spot at arguably the most important position on D.
ReplyDeleteHigher ceiling than McGregor and A breakout season from Moore could really elevate Michigan to Georgia level.
He's not rashan Gary, but might have been the closest we've seen as a freshman. including Hutchinson
Deleteagreed moore had a promising frosh year, likely has the highest ceiling of any edge on roster and should be a significant factor this fall.
Deletedisagree on michigan reaching georgia level or bama level, whoever you want to hold up as the standard. they will never reach that level, regardless of who elevates their play. geography, demographics, michigan admin/alums mentality & demands, etc will never allow michigan to become consistent top 3 program.
maybe you just meant moore stepping up his game would give michigan a much better chance to beat georgia in a 1 off game, once this year. not 5/10 times or whatever, just once.
even then its unlikely a new edge makes that much a difference, unless he morphed into a game wrecking top 5 draft pick this summer.
tough to consistently run the ball vs georgia in big games. theyre so big and so fast, at all 11 spots. your QB needs to ball out, along with basically everyone else to beat them.
id say mccarthy and someone like roman wilson would need to play like 1st rounders to have a shot there, more than an edge (we already saw hutchinson and ojabo vs uga)
Disagree. Jim is as good a coach as there is in CFB. He has an experienced QB who is actually really good. New territory for us, and I think - on a good day - we can play with any team
DeleteMaybe it will end up being low, but you still have starters as 22 positions plus specialists. And if he is indeed a backup to Braiden McGregor, then one might consider where the backups fit in at other positions. I would rather lose a backup edge than Donovan Edwards or a backup 300-pound defensive tackle.
DeleteThat's reasonable. I think moore will probably be the backup but there's probably something like a 25% chance he has a breakout year and is better than the starter. If that happens it will mean very good things for Michigan since McGregor is a high floor player and Moore is a high ceiling player.
DeleteI put Moore higher because of his potential importance and potential impact.
Disagree that backup RB is more important than backup edge but DT is too close to call.
I would disagree with the characterization of Edwards as a "backup RB". Arguing semantics a bit, but I don't think thats representative of his role this year.
DeleteRunning back roles aside - we've had that discussion numerous times - Donovan Edwards is someone you yourself have identified as a difference maker, and there's some talk that he could be a 1st round draft pick in the role of Alvin Kamara (runner + pass catcher). He also showed last year when he exploded for two 75+ yard runs that he can blow a game wide open with his speed.
DeleteMike Morris was hobbled for the OSU game (he missed the Illinois game and the Big Ten championship game) and his backup didn't blow the game wide open with two huge plays.
There you go crediting Edwards for plays where the OL generated massive holes and he went untouched. Michigan D had the worst games of the season when Morris was hurt and Michigan O had it's worst game when Keegan was hurt.
Delete@anon. What is Edwards role if not backup RB?
DeleteIf Keegan is the critical variable for that worst game, how did we do the other two he missed? Can anyone guess which games he missed, without looking? I doubt it's that simple, esp since his replacement (Hadi) got the second highest PFF grade for Ill ... I don't think LG cost as as much as this correlation assumes
Delete@Lank It's just a gross oversimplification of his role IMO. He's going to see more carries than the starting RB on most teams, he's going to see some snaps in the slot, out wide, etc. Who was the backup RB on the 2005 and 2004 USC teams? What about Georgia when they had Sony Michel and Nick Chubb? I'm not sure what the appropriate label is, but IMO he's the second most important offensive player on the team (if we exclude McCarthy since that's obvious).
Delete@anon. Id bet against him even finishing in the big 10 top 10 in carries. Let alone top 7. Unless corum is hurt again. For one thing Edwards himself has gotten hurt both seasons in limited duty.
DeleteCorum and Edwards are going to split duties at the least important position on offense (according to analytics and salary in the NFL). If one goes down the other becomes more important but if they are both healthy there is no way they are the 2nd and 3rd most important players when LT and OC are playing every down and there's an all American at OG.
DeleteI just don't see NFL analytics / salary as a legitimate argument for or against the importance of the RB position in college. I understand your point but college is a different game in my opinion, particularly when you approach it like Jim Harbaugh.
DeleteFair point on Zinter. I actually have him above Corum and Edwards on my personal list.
The rules are almost identical. Seems like the same game to me.
DeleteI suppose you don’t grasp the nuance then. That’s fine.
DeleteI'm open to understanding the differences but all I've heard is the overly simple and general argument that in college teams run the ball more. Which is true but explained by context - namely that non-competitive games (and most specifically blow-outs) result in winners trying to run a lot just to get the game over with.
DeleteThe NFL doesn't have 40 point lines but in college it's a weekly occurrence. Set aside these (mostly irrelevant) glorified exhibition games and you get a different stotry.
Of course college QBs are not as reliable or accurate either. But once you get to the upper tier of championship contenders the differences shrink further - so when you get to the playoff games in college or the games that matter most like UM/OSU and UM/PSU the differences between college and pros shrink.
I welcome explanations for why that's not true, or what I'm missing.
That last point is the biggest IMO. College quarterbacks aren't as reliable as NFL quarterbacks, and therefore the running game plays a larger role in the college game. Michigan ran the ball 40 times against TCU vs. 34 pass attempts. TCU ran the ball 41 times vs. 29 pass attempts. One game sample size obviously, but Michigan clearly wants to run the ball and make that the focal point of their offense.
DeleteThis is more of an eye test claim vs. anything necessarily backed up by statistics, but it feels like elite RBs are able to make a larger difference in college vs. the NFL. In the NFL you're more or less getting what the OL gives you, plus or minus a few yards. In college you see RBs making guys miss, breaking tackles more frequently, etc. Again, very much an eye test claim.
But Michigan and TCU both have NFL caliber QBs. As do OSU, Georgia, and Alabama. So when these teams face off I don't see why it's all that different than an NFL game. Michigan does want to run the ball more than most college and NFL teams but we are still talking about a narrow range of 40-60% mix at most.
DeleteFurthermore - We can't conflate rushing more with more running back carries - especially in college. Only 28 of Michigan's runs and 25 of TCU's went to RBs. That is not the focus of the offense in college, even for a run heavy team like Michigan.
If there's a big difference between college and NFL it's in a willingness to let QBs run more often. There are a lot of reasons for that IMO but one of them is that a 19 year old is generally going to be healthier than a 29 year old. The risk of running your QB is lower in college. Guys are younger, lighter, more flexible, and there is more depth at QB.
But back to the point about RB. The top handful of college RBs ran the ball between 250 and 350 times last year. That's 11 guys across 100 some teams in that top range. Meanwhile, the top handful of NFL RBs also ran the ball between 250 and 350 times - that's 8 guys across 30 some teams. The NFL does play more games but it's not all that different in how much the best RBs are used over the course of a season.
If RBs were to make a larger difference in college - wouldn't we have noticed when Blake Corum got hurt? Yet two years in a row our offense had the most impressive performances without him healthy. That's not a slight on Corum - who is the best Michigan RB of my lifetime IMO - but a sign that the position is eminently replaceable. Hassan Haskins was held up as a hero for running for 5 TDs against OSU in 2021. But he was immediately replaced without even a hint of an issue in 2022.
DeleteRBs are some of the best athletes on the team, and typically the best athlete in their state, even if you look at the 4th or 5th guy on the depth chart. So any of them can juke a MAC safety with regularity and any of them can run for 5 ypc with a Joe Moore OL. That talent differential doesn't just apply to the first guy but the 5th guy. Nor does it apply only for RB.
College is going to have a wider range of players because there are much more teams and much bigger talent disparities in play than the NFL. So yeah RBs are going to make lesser players miss badly more often in college. But th a) that doesn't matter in the games that matter where competition levels are equalized - as we saw against Georgia in 2021 or Illinois or Iowa despite Haskins, Corum, and Edwards all healthy and again that doesn't apply just to RB. So OK you can say that Blake Corum or Denard Robinson are going to make MAC teams look more foolish more often but it's just as true that Zak Zinter and Olu Oluwatimi are going to blow open a 4-yard wide hole for any old RB to run through untouched against bad DLs. That gap applies to QB, WR, OL, TE, and anywhere else - just as much as RB. That's why backup RBs like Mike Shaw can put up huge YPC numbers in garbage time snaps without really being more than replacement level for a place like Michigan.
The eye test is fine and we are all entitled to our opinions. But the eye test is also biased to watching the ball - which the RB has far more than 1/11th of the time, and paying far less attention to stuff like blocking and route running. Watching RBs is fun! But the rise of analytics has taught us that some things we though mattered according to the eye test are not the things that matter when it comes to winning football games. That's true in basketball, hockey, baseball, and football all of which have changed dramatically based on analytics in the last 20 years.
So, respectfully, I think someone has to make a case that is better than "college is just different (even though the rules are the same)" and "by my eye test RBs matter more in college". Because I don't think it's true or compelling. The NFL eye test also tells you that RBs like Derrick Henry and Ezekiel Elliot matter. NFL GMs used to believe it too! But then when it comes down to paying them GMs have learned their lessons and listened to the eggheads doing analytics. Those who are responsible not for the eye test but for Wins and Losses, now rarely agree with the eye test and when they do, they tend to not do very well in the Wins and Losses side.
There's no equivalent to salary or draft position for RBs in college. So we can't use that measure in college. But we need to make a better case for why it is so drastically different in college. "it just looks like it to me" isn't enough.
Agree to disagree, I suppose. I would argue that we saw a material increase in YPC as we moved from Haskins to Corum and we'll see a material decrease when we move from Corum / Edwards to the next crop of RBs.
DeleteTo your comment around these teams having NFL-caliber RBs - I'm not aware of one former Michigan QB in the NFL at the moment. I get your point overall, but there's a massive difference in ability and performance between 20 year old JJ McCarthy and 25 year old Mahomes / Allen / etc.
Finally, I'd push back that any Michigan RB can juke MAC level players with regularity. Deveon Smith carried the ball ~175x / year and certainly wasn't breaking away from MAC players. Again, I go back to my point that the 2016 Michigan team is in the playoffs with Corum or Edwards at RB.
And I would argue the increase in YPC is more likely attributable to continuity across 3/5 of the OL, an upgrade at center, the return of our #1 WR from injury, and perhaps most importantly a sizeable improvement at QB, including being a threat to run. Change at OC might be another factor.
DeleteYPC should have improved in 2022, even if RB was unchanged. Wouldn't you agree?
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Your point is taken about Mahomes vs McCarthy even if it's just 27 year old pro Mahomes/McCarthy vs 20 year old amateur Mahomes/McCarthy. There should be a lot of improvement. The players are better in the NFL. But so are the DL, LB, DBs they face. Maybe the learning curve is sharper for QB though.
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As for 2016. I disagree. Deveon Smith was high 4star recruit who OSU wanted, had a lot of success in college despite coaching turnover, and he played in the NFL for a bit and did well in other pro leagues otherwise.
He was definitely juking MAC guys - and PSU guys, and Indiana guys, and hurdling FSU guys - but even if he wasn't he was just breaking their tackles, which achieves the same effect. He lacked top end speed, yes, but so did Mike Hart. That'll suppress YPC but not success rate. Still excellent college backs IMO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgqI9nGg5Q4
The 2016 team was the best of the Harbaugh era until the last year. I would argue this is because of, not in spite of, Deveon Smith. Keep in mind the 2016 team had Chris Evans on it too, so there was 2 NFL backs on that team. I think there were bigger issues at positions that didn't have NFL talent (like QB, LB) and then we got hit with some major injuries against FSU.
It's a hypothetical so we'll never know but I don't think outcomes change at all if you put Hassan Haskins on the 2016 team and Deveon Smith on the 2021 team. Blake Corum...maybe.
I think the most meaningful example of RBs not having much impact is the fact that the 2020 team had the best RB room I can remember at Michigan - Zach Charbonnet, Hassan Haskins, Chris Evans, and Blake Corum. 4 NFL backs -- but the team stunk.
I expect a drop-off in offense next year regardless of Corum/Edwards. We're going to turnover probably 3-5 starters on the OL this year, both WRs, and (if things go well) QB. It would be a tough ask to maintain the talent and experience the 2023 offense has in 2024.
DeleteI would love to see Edwards/Corum return in 2024, not just because they're good players, but it would be a great data point in the impact of RBs or lack thereof.
Yeah, I could see Moore taking over McGregor, or at least sharing the spot ... this weight loss is promising
ReplyDeleteNeed both. They'll rotate surely
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