Name: Will Johnson
Height: 6’2″
Weight: 202 lbs.
High school: Grosse Pointe (MI) South
Position: Cornerback
Class: Sophomore
Jersey number: #2
Last year: I ranked Johnson #34 and said he would be a backup cornerback (LINK). He started five games and made 27 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 3 interceptions, and 6 pass breakups.
TTB Rating: 91
Will Johnson was Michigan's most anticipated freshman enrollee since way back in . . . oh, 2021, when J.J. McCarthy first arrived on campus.
Okay, that might not be the best angle.
But still, Michigan fans - and coaches - were really looking forward to getting the 5-star corner on campus. The son of a former Michigan defensive back, Johnson had the size, athleticism, and local upbringing that made him a legend before he ever ran out to touch the banner. It took him some time to get that on-field performance on par with the hype, but he made it happen in the Big Ten Championship game.
The build-up to that game really started with his first career start, which took place against Rutgers in early November, peaking with his first career interception, which he returned 29 yards. It culminated with him following around Purdue wide receiver Charlie Jones, who had a decent game, but Boilermakers quarterback Aidan O'Connell also threw 2 picks to Johnson. Johnson's reactions and physicality really seemed to shine in that game and perhaps propelled expectations for him in 2023 to All-American levels.
I'm not so sure that Johnson will be an All-American in 2023, considering sometimes it takes ridiculous - and impossible to predict - interception numbers to earn that honor. Johnson could have an excellent season, but some kid from North Carolina State could make 10 interceptions and totally steal his thunder. Johnson will certainly be Michigan's #1 corner and he should be one of the best in the Big Ten, if not the best.
It's not only his talent that puts him at #2 in the countdown, though. There's also the uncomfortable fact that Michigan does not have much proven depth at the position. The coaching staff brought in UMass transfer Josh Wallace, but there was also a time in the spring where Jim Harbaugh anointed Amorion Walker a starter . . . before Walker looked kinda bad in the spring game. While Michigan has quality backups at almost every single position, the one spot on defense that gets shaky immediately is cornerback, so the hope is that Johnson stays healthy throughout the year.
Prediction: Starting cornerback; 50 tackles, 4 interceptions
Here goes my annual encouragement to start the countdown earlier. The flurry of posts in the last week for the highest profile players doesn't get the readership attention it probably deserves.
ReplyDeleteJohnson is awesome. But I agree with the post's caution about expecting an all american season. That said, with the advent of analysis like PFF there is less reliance on the 1% of plays that end up as INTs and more information available about down-to-down consistency on the other 99% that don't. I don't think INTs are what will hold Johnson back - it's just more likely that someone will surge ahead. That's just the nature of being predicted to be in the top of any all american list. You benefit from momentum of expectations but you also have a harder job than anyone to meet yours.
I would "settle" for an all conference caliber season from Johnson. Most important is maintaining his health so I hope the coaches are strategic and thoughtful about getting the 2nd string guys plenty of snaps early in the year. It would be nice to see what Hill, McBurrows, Walker, etc. can do.
One quibble: it's not just CB where depth gets shaky quickly.
DeleteEDGE doesn't have anyone close to proven beyond the top 2 rotation at each spot. It's like RB except much less experienced or optimistic. Whomever DE5 is (TJ Guy?) he is going to be needed on meaningful snaps and we don't know if he's ready at all. Someone needs to step up into the Taylor Upshaw part of the rotation even if everyone is healthy. If/when any of the 4 "starters" get banged up we need a guy.
Safety is the other spot though buzz is solid on Berry and Sabb.
Finally, TE also has a strong top 2 we are confident but we used about 6 different guys on meaningful down. Bredeson makes for 3 trusted rotation players and after that it's mostly vague hopes. TE is arguably the thinnest position on the roster IMO. Good thing there is you don't actually HAVE to play 2 of them all the time - maybe Sherron Moore knows this but is afraid to tell Harbaugh.
At safety Michigan has two 4-star second-year players and a fifth year senior with a good amount of defensive and special teams experience.
DeleteAt the edge positions, Michigan has four solid guys to rotate in the two-deep, followed up by two redshirt sophomores who have started to earn some practice buzz (Kechaun Bennett and T.J. Guy), not to mention a true freshman in Enow Etta who was perhaps the prize recruit of the 2023 class. I think most teams in the country would be glad to have two redshirt sophomores as their #3 guys at each edge position.
At cornerback behind Johnson, Sainristil, and Wallace, Michigan has . . . a bunch of dudes who have barely played: Amorion Walker, Ja'Den McBurrows, Jyaire Hill, Kody Jones, German Green, Keshaun Harris, Myles Pollard, etc. Other than on special teams (German Green, Keshaun Harris), that group is almost completely inexperienced. I'm not sure any of them has taken even a single snap at corner in a non-blowout situation.
SAFETY
DeleteQ Johnson is a senior that was buried deep on the depth chart (limited to special teams duties through 3 years) till getting thrown in the fire last year. He subsequently got cooked in limited duty. I'm not sure how much runway is left here, but I'm glad he's around to put a reasonable floor on things.
Sabb and Berry both redshirted and have 1 career tackle between them. They have barely played at all, special teams or anywhere else, and they certainly haven't seen any non-blowout snaps. They are far fewer in number all those guys you listed at CB.
Being 4-stars is fine but Seldon, Green-Warren, and Perry are all 4 star DBs that could be seniors on the current roster had they not busted out and transferred. The stars are not only not a guarantee of performance they aren't even much of predictor. These guys are not Will Johnson or Rod Moore - if they were they would have been out there against TCU.
The most relevant thing here for Berry/Sabb is not the stars but the practice buzz. Which has been positive and makes me a bit less worried about safety depth than I was in July. It's still precarious until Sabb or Berry prove themselves.
We need 3 safeties. We have 2. For the last spot we have 2 other promising but unproven options and a veteran insurance policy. If Johnson is rotating in with the starters by Penn State instead of the sophomores I will be worried. I think he would have a target on his back.
EDGE
This is a high rotation position that goes 3 deep on both sides. Even when Hutchinson and Ojabo were fully healthy in 2021 against OSU, we still went 6 deep using Morris, Upshaw, Welshof and Harrell to spell the starters.
Buzz has been positive on TJ Guy so maybe this basic need will be met at 5 guys, but that assumes full health and Guy making a leap worthy of being included. Bennett buzz is positive but he is still supposed to be a year away. I'm not counting on freshman contributions but of course that is another possibility - it's just not very likely for meaningful downs.
CB
Frankly I could make a case that CB depth is stronger than these other spots for 2 reasons because 1) the sheer number of options behind Wallace/Johnson and 2) flexibility of having Sainristil slide outside and Moore can play nickel. In contrast, there is no indication any of the CBs could be moved to Safety.
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But that's beside the point - all 3 position groups project to be rotating guys who are inexperienced and if there is an injury we will be counting on guys making a leap and making it quick. Certainly not impossible but also far from assured.
Those depth questions stand in contrast to some of the other positions like OL, LB, QB, and DT that have plentiful proven options, even at backup spots.
I see a strong parallel between Mullings at RB3 and Johnson at Safety3. Their mistakes cost us TDs against TCU. They can contribute in 2023 for sure, but it's better if the kids with more upside surpass them. If for nothing else - looking ahead to 2024.
DeleteMichigan has good "starters" at each secondary spot and each EDGEs spot's starting rotation (going 2 deep). The issue comes when looking at the end of the rotation and potential injury replacements.
DeleteAt all 3 spots those are unproven players. At safety we can project Berry/Sabb. At corner we can project Walker/McBurrows/etc. At edge we can project Guy/Bennet. We can also speculate on freshman too. Regardless, none of these guys are remotely proven or sure things. Confidence in depth at any of these spots is highly subjective.
My subjective take is that Guy should be fine at EDGE, one of Berry/Sabb should be solid, and at CB I am most unsure about any one individual but trust the math (i.e., quantity of options) to produce someone capable beyond Q Johnson. The concern is injuries.
1) I agree with Lank that the Season Eve posts [as the Countdown gets to the Top10) are the best posts and coming too fast and furiously, such that it would be better if it was heavier two weeks ago. TTB + MgoBlog is a lot of work time.
ReplyDelete2) Lank at his best is responding to his own posts.
3) Lank content is the icing on the cake for Mangus's great effort. (Taking nothing away from je93, Anon, etc.) Discuss: Is "Lank" a real person or just Magnus's alternate personality? We may need to see SSNs. Either way, love you, Lank.
4) Repeated sentiment ... Love the Countdown. It makes this site special.
5) Sadly, otherwise, I'm just a casual fan, and I have no special analysis contribute.
I respond to other posts, so why not my own? It's only fair. Plus I wouldn't want to disappoint JE by being succinct and agreeable.
DeleteThe TTB Countdown rules.
I'll respond to Lank's encouragement here, since you're discussing it, too, TriFloyd.
Delete1. It's always a whirlwind right at the beginning of the season to get in the countdown, game preview, season predictions, etc. Not only does it get into football season (August is always super-busy on a personal level), but this past spring when the countdown started, I was going through some . . . stuff. On one hand, I would like to start the countdown sooner. On the other hand, I like to have some time to contemplate the fallout from the spring game before the countdown.
In this year's case, I started publishing season countdown posts on April 4 after the spring game was on April 1. The bottom guys on the list aren't going to change much since they're usually freshman walk-ons and such, but it seems weird to start the countdown before the spring game even happens, considering there are usually transfers, breakout players, position changes, etc. to consider.
2. It is always kind of funny seeing like 4 posts in a thread and 3 of them are from Lank responding to himself, while the other one is je93 hating on him. LOL.
3. I wish I had the time in the day to type my own content and also write comments masquerading as someone else. (Actually...no, I don't. I need to get out more!)
4. Thank you! I like hearing it's appreciated.
5. It's nice knowing that fans read it. You don't need any special skill or knowledge just to enjoy the game. Thanks for reading!
You all act like there are life factors to consider beyond the TTB countdown. Weird.
DeleteKidding aside, an alternative to starting earlier might be more posts during the summer. Better to build in some buffer to opening day back in June or whatever than posting 4 per day in late August when school/football is ramping up in people's lives.