What's Michigan's offensive identity? Obviously, Michigan is still trying to feel out what it's good at besides hoping a tight end can make a play. With a walk-on quarterback, it needs to be a run-oriented program. With that being said, Michigan needs to commit to more creativity in the run game. This team can't subsist on 14 total rushing attempts from its top two running backs. Donovan Edwards (8 carries, 41 yards) and Kalel Mullings (6 carries, 25 yards) may not have had great days, but the offensive coordinator (and the offensive-minded head coach) need to figure out creative ways to get them the ball, get them going in the run game, and play complementary offensive football. The offense seems to be very disjointed as the staff appears to be relying on an odd mix of runs and straight dropback passing. They need more misdirection in the run game and they need to get Warren moving a little bit. I don't think the coaching staff has done a good job of adjusting to its personnel this year.
Hit the jump for more.
Davis Warren is a problem. The problem with evaluating the quarterback position at this point is a complex one. Through the lens of being a starting quarterback at Michigan, Warren is just not up to snuff. He misses too many open throws and can't push the ball downfield - or at least hasn't - in the way we're used to seeing. His overall numbers against Texas weren't awful considering how much Michigan had to play from behind (22/33, 204 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions), but a struggling Michigan run game needs more at QB. And the QB needs more from the run game. Late in the game, Michigan let Warren play it out and gave him a bunch of chances to throw the ball, and I think color analyst Joel Klatt got it exactly right - the coaches need Warren to improve, and getting live passing snaps is key. But the Wolverines need to give Warren more help earlier in the game with easy throws, play action, rollouts, half rolls, etc. He made good decisions and solid throws rolling to his right in this game, and Michigan needs to take advantage of that. Offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell needs to look at his offense and figure out how to help a struggling quarterback who has limitations. It's not impossible (see 2021 Cade McNamara), but it does take creativity. Now Michigan knows it can't physically outmatch top teams upfront, so Campbell needs to go back to the drawing board and figure out what this 2024 team can do - not just try to make it do what the 2021-2023 teams did.
Should Alex Orji play more? I don't have much faith in Orji as a passer, which I have mentioned time and time again. It raised a giant red flag in 2023 when the coaching staff went an entire year without letting him attempt a pass. It wouldn't have been that big of a deal if J.J. McCarthy returned . . . or if Michigan went after a transfer portal quarterback . . . but what was left at QB was less than stellar. I think Michigan needs to install a triple option package for Orji - not just a power/counter read, but a true triple option. Otherwise, the Orjicat offense is going to be dead in the water. Below I'll just draw up a play that gives an idea of what I'm talking about:
Obviously, you have to show different looks with different personnel, but that gets your best athletes on the field (Orji, Edwards, Mullings, Loveland, etc.) and stresses the defense in multiple ways - horizontally, vertically, with physicality, and with discipline. If the defense walks the free safety up to put a ninth guy in the box, you have to trust Orji to be able to throw a fade or a post to Tyler Morris or Colston Loveland. You can draw up similar plays from a hundred different formations with a bunch of different personnel. Put Amorion Walker out there at wideout and let the 6'3" guy with the 4.3 speed outrun a corner. This isn't something to major in, but it provides someone like Orji a chance to be successful without just running straight into a loaded box. And if you can't trust Orji to pitch the ball or throw a fade . . . well . . . you should probably just go ahead and switch him to tight end or linebacker.
The defense has little depth. I should preface this by pointing out that Texas is a very good football team, so there's really no room for error. Michigan can't have a big drop-off from its starters to its backups on defense and expect to be successful. Last year Michigan had great depth on the interior of the defensive line and even at linebacker, but this year is a step down in talent and experience. Texas did a great job of making defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant run laterally to get them tired, and then they were better able to run up the middle against those guys or the backups. Enow Etta came in the game briefly and immediately got blown off the ball, and he's the #4 or #5 defensive tackle. There are no backup edges who are really a threat to win against good tackles - not T.J. Guy, not Cameron Brandt, no one.
This is why you don't schedule tough teams early in the season. I know the 12-team playoff era is new, but this has always been the case. Admittedly, this game doesn't destroy Michigan's chances of making the CFP; if they go 11-1, they'll certainly be in the playoff. But it does cut down the margin. Michigan could probably go 10-2 and make the playoff, and they might sneak in at 9-3. I just don't see any huge advantages to playing top teams early in the year when you have teams like Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon, USC, etc. already in the conference.
Panic is not necessary. The expectation going into the season should have been a struggling offense with 10 new starters, including either a walk-on at QB, a guy who wasn't trusted to pass last year, or a seventh year senior who's already hurt. The front four depth was already a question mark, too, with no reinforcements brought in at edge rusher or defensive tackle. (If Michigan went after Stewart from the transfer portal in 2023 to supplement McGregor, Harrell, and Moore, I'm not sure why they didn't go after another edge to supplement Stewart and Moore in 2024.) Texas had a better roster than Michigan coming into 2024, and it turns out . . . yeah, Texas is better. Not every team is going to be Texas with giant offensive linemen, a bunch of mercenary receivers, and a former #1 quarterback.
I wonder how much of this can be plausibly laid at the feet of Harbaugh? I wonder if his jump to the NFL was a true question mark up until he got the offer, and until he had the assured position, he held tight to decisions related the portal?
ReplyDeleteAt the end of the day, Jim Harbaugh is about Jim Harbaugh, and there's a part of me that thinks Moore was handed a bad hand of cards very late in the cycle. That doesn't excuse some of what we saw in the Texas game, but it may set the background context a little clearer.
Jim Harbaugh should be about Jim Harbaugh. And Anonymous should be about Anonymous. If Harbaugh wants to go get an NFL job to try to win a Super Bowl, he should. He doesn't need to go his entire life with an unrealized dream just because the University of Michigan might end up with a worse football coach than himself.
DeleteThe oldest coach to win a Super Bowl was Bruce Arians when he was 68. Jim Harbaugh is 60. There's a certain point where guys are deemed too old, which we've seen with Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll just in the last year. So Harbaugh basically has about 8 years left to try to win a Super Bowl.
Michigan and Sherrone Moore had time to try to find transfer portal players if they wanted them. They had time to get guys healthy, see guys in practices, hire people, etc. The product on the field right now is Sherrone Moore's product.
I'M GONNA GET POLITICAL HERE...but it's similar to how people are talking about Kamala Harris. She says she's going to change things, but she's a part of the current administration as vice president. What's currently going on is at least partly due to Kamala Harris, good or bad. Sherrone Moore was the OC, and if he wanted a transfer portal QB or some new linemen or something, I'm sure he could have brought that up with Harbaugh before Harbaugh left or done something to bring someone in after Harbaugh left.
Moore was okay with going into the 2024 season with Orji/Warren/Tuttle battling it out, so let's not blame this all on Harbaugh.
So first of all, Moore is a big boy now and he needs to take credit/blame for the product on the field.
And second, it's game two of his regime. I'm not going to pass judgment on him or his staff for what they've done so far. We all know how much Michigan lost, and even if they brought in replacements at QB/WR, there would still be growing pains. Onward and upward.
Agree regarding the portal
DeleteMoore & Campbell trusted the guys they had on roster. Naive? Bad judgement? I don't know, but it's turning out to be costly
When we had the portal thread last spring, I commented on how we typically take guys for depth & competition ... that happened at Kicker this year, and worked out amazingly. Safety was plussed up.
We did it with TE & DE last year, with similar results
Ignoring QB, WR and DL this time around had little to do with the playoff ... teams are meddling, but we trusted Orji & Warren (Tuttle wasn't even assumed to get a 7th year at the time)
"Ignoring QB, WR and DL this time around had little to do with the playoff ... teams are meddling, but we trusted Orji & Warren (Tuttle wasn't even assumed to get a 7th year at the time)"
DeleteYes, Moore was in a somewhat difficult position but I said at the time that I hoped that not meant getting a transfer QB as a band-aid was an indication that the staff felt confident in what they had. If so, that now looks like a poor decision and worth some criticism. OTOH, I think Warren has been mediocre but not bad and honestly the OL and WR are bigger problems on offense (along with bad playcalling). Plus, most of us thought that the D, although thinner, would still be a top-10 defense. And they may but they certainly don't look like it right now. Tackling has been terrible, LB diagnosis/recognition has been terrible and I think Wink's schemes and calls have been terrible. The D was expected to carry this team early and they are not doing it.
Michigan address DB and Kicker after the spring. They TRIED to address WR and DT, but they failed. That's what we heard about at least.
DeleteIt's possible they tried to get somebody at QB but in the end determined whoever was getable was not better than Tuttle/Warren/Orji.
I do think it's fair to recognize there was a lot of turnover this offseason and expecting them to knock it out of the park at EVERY position (like they did at DB and K) is unrealistic.
Now if they don't do anything THIS offseason at QB, it's a different story. Even if Jadyn Davis is IT, you bring in legitimate competition, ideally a frontline starter that Davis can learn from.
They got Charleston at WR but is he much of an upgrade? Probably not.
DeleteIt seems like the coaches are playing it too conservative. Can't just next-man-up when you don't have the people to do the job.
ReplyDeleteAt QB. Warren doesn't threaten downfield. While his arm strength is probably adequate his talent level as a passer is subpar - the decisions are slow and often incorrect. The accuracy isn't there. Decision-making can be learned to manage things but at 22, there's not years of runway here. I trust the coaches are making the right call and that Orji would simply be too much of a risk, but at some point you need to live with risks. Are you just trying to ensure beating MSU or getting to a place where you can beat OSU?
This one was over when Texas converted after Loveland's fumble. So at some point in the 2nd half would have been a good time to have an Orji drive. If we're going to face stacked boxes we might as well get something for the trouble. Orji cannot be THIS one dimensional. If he is that bad as a passer (we saw in Spring he wasn't) he shouldn't be out there at all. I suggest they put together enough of a package so that Orji is a run/pass threat, not just a run/run threat.
I don't think Orji is the answer to all the offenses problems by any stretch, or else he'd be out there more. But I do think they should give him a series and fergodsakes let him throw a real pass at some point. Let's at least see the kid try to run the offense. That's going to make the run package way more successful, and benefit the entire team.
At RB. Look -- this is the strength of the offense (along with Loveland). You've got a weapon in Edwards who should be getting the ball 20 times again. He just missed a big in this game despite just 8 carries. You've got a strong alternative in Mullings who is a load as a runner and a blocker. You've got a FB who excels at blocking in space. I don't know how many snaps all 3 played together yesterday but it wasn't enough. That's 3 of your best 11 guys. Put them on the field for the majority of snaps. Then give Mullings and Edwards the ball. Mullings is a RB/FB. Edwards is a RB/WR. Bredeson is a FB/TE. Get creative - there's a lot you can do with that versatility. Instead -- we've got our uninspiring replacement level WR corps getting heavy snaps from the outset. This isn't the way.
This isn't fixable to the point of getting to a top 20 offense unless Tuttle is some kind of savior (unlikely). But it is fixable if the coaches adapt to their personnel and stop pretending like we can keep calling plays like we have McCarthy, NFL WRs, an abundance of TE talent, and a Joe Moore winning OL. NONE of that fits here.
Time to focus on your strengths. Loveland, Edwards, Mullings, and QBs that aren't going to be so one dimensional.
Lastly -- Moore is being way too conservative in his approach. There was the obvious miss week 1 on the 2 point decision. Then this week there was the FG decision when down 24-3 late in the 3rd. Play to win the game. It's 4th and 6 - not impossible. And while I'm at it, that last play to close the first half is a standard kneel down, but when you have Orji, Edwards, Morgan -- maybe dial something up and at least try. If it's tied up, OK, kneel it. Both these instances were not obviously wrong or anything, but when you're getting worked over it's an opportunity missed to rally the team with some aggression and some visible faith that you believe they can come back and win.
"Campbell needs to go back to the drawing board and figure out what this 2024 team can do - not just try to make it do what the 2021-2023 teams did."
DeletePretty much sums up my point above. You have, aside from linemen, 2 NFL players on the offensive side of the ball. Build off getting them the ball and put your QBs in a position to succeed despite their limitations.
Man, I agree here. We had 5WR sets with the Youngstown guy, Oleary & Kendrick Bell on the field ... I was like, "where the F is Edwards!? Mullings?!?"
DeleteIt's a lot easier to double Loveland when the other options are the three listed above ... not knocking them, but we do have guys who can make plays ... PLAY THEM
Don't insult my guy O'Leary! LOL.
DeleteIf they are worried about Edwards/Mullings getting tired -- then start rotating Hall or Marshall in the game.
DeleteI think that's better than Bell/Moore/O'Leary/Charleston/Walker.
"I just don't see any huge advantages to playing top teams early in the year when you have teams like Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon, USC, etc. already in the conference."
ReplyDeleteDisagree.
1. There's a lot of benefit from the rest of the season to playing a tough team early on. Win or lose you learn and grow. Our chances of beating USC, Oregon, and Ohio State are better later in the year.
2. If you lose 3 times in conference play, a win over a team like Texas makes you a viable candidate to sneak into the playoff at 9-3.
3. Even if you lose, a 10-2 record with all cupcake non-conference isn't much better for your playoff resume than a 9-3 record with a loss to the #2 team, if you're competitive.
Since we weren't this doesn't help us in this case, but I think there's more to be gained in general than there is to be lost with a 12 team playoff. Ultimately, all our goals are still there and (hopefully) we are a better team for it.
Biggest reason (4) is that it's fun for fans, sells tickets, makes money for the program, and just overall makes college football a better sport when not everyone is sitting around and playing scared. Maybe naive of me, but I hope the new 12 team playoff decision don't punish quality losses as much as the old 4 team one did.
Very good for the fans
DeleteBut with these new conferences, there are more than enough big games
You wanna get away from G5 and make money? Play Arkansas or Wazzu. ArizSt or NcSt. Syracuse. Stanford ... there are options
I get the tough games build a better team thought, but last year we played a sh:t schedule and had one of the strongest finishes in the history of the program
A game vs NC State isn't getting the same ratings, or getting Gameday in the house, or selling the T-shirts, or booking every room in the hotel at a premium, or getting in the recruits from down south. Better than a cupcake, yeah, but... Just not the same.
DeleteYou risk a loss when you play someone like Notre Dame or Texas or Alabama in the non conference, no doubt, but the losses don't mean as much with a 12 team playoff as with a 2 or 4 team playoff. And the OPPORTUNITY can't be ignored.
We did win a championship last year with a cupcake non-conference, but we lost in the playoff in 2022 with the same. It's a hypothetical but lose to Illinois in 2022 and a victory over a big time team in the non-conference might put you over the hump and back into the playoff.
I think Notre Dame is worth scheduling because of history
DeleteBut as to your other points, I disagree. We're getting over 11ok in there if it's Stanford, just like we would if it were UGa ... no one is getting an extra hotel room or dinner reservation because the mascot is different. That same 11oK+ show up and consume the same amount of goods & services
National ratings I might agree. But if it's primetime, folks will tune in
You'll get over 100K either way and you'll sell about the same number of tickets (because it's mostly season tickets being sold anyway). What you won't get is 20K coming in from out of state for a once in a lifetime weekend experience, renting hotels, not worrying about prices of food and drink, hitting up gameday, buying shirts at M-Den, etc. Different deal than someone driving in from Detroit, Grand Rapids or whatever and leaving that same night. And the national attention (which matters to not only to the broadcasters but also Nike, etc. is essential to the athletic department's overall marketing efforts and profitability).
DeleteIt's not remotely the same thing because there's a lot more to it than the attendance.
But even if you want to just focus on that - I'll note that Michigan's season ticket package becomes a lot more attractive if it has marquee games. The 2024 schedule can be sold at higher price than the 2022 or 2023 schedules not only because they're defending national champs. So can the 2025 packages and beyond -- if people know they are getting good games, not just cupcakes, they'll pay more. The resale market tells you the value better than face value of the tickets.
NCSt is out of state, as are Stanford and Arkansas ... not sure if you need a map, or arguing against air
DeleteEither way, I will not be debating outside of good faith during the season
GO BLUE
LOSS avoidance is for losers.
DeleteI'll make it overly simple for you so you can understand. IRT the economic considerations. Texas fans, Notre Dame fans, etc bring a different level of interest than NC State fans, Arkansas fans. Those are different tickets costs, hotel prices, TV ratings, etc. It also means, for both better and worse, that fewer in state fans (who are in abundant supply) will not be priced out, which is a downside but not one that trumps the multitude of benefits I've laid out above that all come back to the athletic department.
RE: Good faith. Nobody is asking you to talk to me or about me but you're obsessed so nobody believes your lies. Good luck on your journey!
Soooo ... you're changing your argument from out of state to the passion of a fan base. Fair, but still a flip-flop
DeleteOr ... you're misleading (again)
My argument is that there are a multitude of benefits of playing Texas/ND instead of lesser opponents that go beyond the W-L record. I broke it up into 4 reasons in the post above, but can drill down from those.
DeleteYou don't get it, so you flail with lies and insults. Grasping on to one thread, desperate for a gotcha. Obsessed, but failing, again and again.
Not built for this. 2oo dUmB.
"What you won't get is 20K coming in from out of state for a once in a lifetime weekend experience, renting hotels, not worrying about prices of food and drink, hitting up gameday, buying shirts at M-Den, etc. "
DeleteNC State is just like Texas is your assertion and your assumption jeLLY. Mine is that they are different. Texas brings more to the table for all the reasons I outlined. It's a bigger fanbase that has bigger ratings and bigger spending and bigger willingness to travel.
This isn't a flip flop. This you not understanding the argument. Lying about what it means. Conflating topics you can't follow. But you fool no one. Just trolling, desperate for a little attention from Lank and holding up L's.
jeLLLy gonna jeLLLy
from 93 til infinity
No lie from me. None. But go ahead, project
DeleteThe best you had was TV ratings. Even with that, the Texas game was about half the viewership we got against ohio and the same as against sparty (the point I made for night games). Our ECU(!) game pulled (at the time) the largest CFB streaming audience in NBC history ...
Maybe convince yourself you are right. You're not, but are welcome to that conclusion ... even if it takes you an hour between posts to get there
#rentfree
"you're changing your argument from out of state to the passion of a fan base."
DeleteThis is a lie. You are a liar.
Viewership for ECU was less than half of viewership for Texas. And I bet the visiting fan dollars spent was even less.
Misleading!
LOL. hold your L's up high! Higher even than the visiting Longhorns holding up the Hookem's in AA last weekend. That is, when they weren't pulling out their wallets to spend $.
#200dUmb
Spelling it out for you. There's no flip-flop - just your fantasy. Your assertions are facts only to you. Only you believe your own lie. 200dUmB or just trolling? Nobody actually cares.
DeleteTexas was double the ratings of ECU. Fact.
Obliterated. Hold it up high.
Checking my time stamps and fantasizing about burner accounts.
DeleteCalvin Klein isn't the only one making #obsession.
Checking time stamp? Lmao, it's a 3 or 4 digit number, no investigation needed numbnuts ... same with your burner accounts. Deny if you like, not it's a thing. Another lie for Lank
DeleteAnd you did change the subject, from one post to another ... It's right up there liar, no quote needed
ECU set a streaming record, that's a fact. Sparty had the same viewership; PennSt too. ohio nearly doubled Texas. These are facts
Insults, fantasies, lies, deflections. #meltdown
DeleteNobody believes you because the facts are right there. I got the #quotes.
You have the lies and mIsLeaDInG deflections. #garbage
Texas had more than twice as many viewers as ECU. #fact
What is the comment talking about? -- non-conference scheduling choices! You're out here talking about Ohio State and MSU (?) for some reason. Also bring up streaming vs non-streaming for some reason. After you equated Texas with NC State. LOL. Just flailing around.
Dodging and deflecting. But you can't follow the thread OR win the argument, even when you try to move the goalposts. #200dUmB
You're not built for this. It's clear you wish you were SO bad. #obsessed
But you're just holding up L after L after L. jeLLLy is for jealous but also for the loses. #caseclosed
"Texas had more than twice as many viewers as ECU. #fact"
DeleteShow me where I said otherwise, LyinLank ... just another dodge
Unless you can back up your other claims with dollars$, you're wrong (again)
Otherwise, it's another L ... lots of words, but easily dismantled
#outsmarted
It's not a dodge it's the point numbnuts. Some non-conference games mean more, matter more, and earn more than others. That's the point!
DeleteTry to keep up.
You can't but at least try. #2ooDuMb
Soooo ... no dollar amount to backup your points
Delete#immitationisthehighestformofflattery
#whiteflag
Can't follow.
DeleteDemolished at every step anyway.
#200dUmB
"color analyst Joel Klatt got it exactly right - the coaches need Warren to improve, and getting live passing snaps is key"
ReplyDeleteomG what a novel concept! Live reps! Playing football helps players get better at football ... who'd have thunk it?
the problem with triple option is that Orji hasn't demonstrated the ability to make the right reads ... that's far too important to the "option" part of the scheme
ReplyDeleteI agree, but I think it's partly because he's pressing. When you come in for just one play and you're "one of the best 11 athletes on offense" (which Kirk Campbell has said), then you want the ball in your hands. If you run 5 plays in a row or 3 plays in a row or 8 plays in a half, you don't need to keep the ball every time.
DeleteIt's not really a thing you can half-ass. As limited package -- yes, OK, keep the defense guessing. Bring the simple changeup to your standard offense. Make them prepare for it. Half dozen plays or whatever. But if it's not your base that you're repping regularly with all the counters ready to go, you can't execute it at a high level.
DeleteThe coaches told us in the offseason they weren't going to change the offense. When Warren was named starter that proved that a) they weren't lying and b) Orji hadn't made the leap offseason hype indicated he might have.
The thing is -- it's NOT too late to reassess. Our offense change substantially from week 2 to week 12 in 2023.
Honestly, I think you can half-ass some triple option from the shotgun/pistol. I mean, as long as it's not your whole offensive identity. Going under center and running it would be a whole different deal.
Delete