Well, the coaching stunk. Where do you start? And where do you stop? Michigan lost a possession because Oregon lined up in a funky punt formation, and it's illegal to line up over the snapper. Michigan's best 4th-and-5 call toward the end of the game was an end around pass with Semaj Morgan, and he threw the ball to Alex Orji, who had run out of bounds. The best thing about the entire offense was Davis Warren-to-Colston Loveland, and when it came down to crunch time, Michigan put the ball in Alex Orji's and Semaj Morgan's hands. Coaches always talk about "players, not plays" and Michigan very clearly went for "plays, not players." Gross. Michigan had no answers in the run game, whether on options or RPOs. They challenged a Colston Loveland dropped pass for no reason, which cost them a timeout. I don't want to say coaching cost them the game, because Oregon is clearly a better team. But it probably wouldn't have been a 21-point loss.
Hit the jump for more.
The above score should have been 34-17 or 31-17, anyway. If I'm Michigan's coaching staff, I'm contacting the Big Ten office, oh . . . at halftime of yesterday's game. Oregon's first touchdown to Evan Stewart was a drop on the sideline, an even clearer drop than the aforementioned Loveland drop. Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel made a very nice throw to Stewart on a back shoulder play that beat very good coverage by cornerback Aamir Hall. Except it didn't really beat Hall, because the ball hit Stewart's hands, clearly dropped to the ground, and then bounced back up into his midsection. Despite the fact that all scoring plays are supposed to be reviewed, the TV replay of the drop didn't show up until after the extra point and subsequent commercial. I don't really blame Michigan's staff in the booth for not noticing, because they don't get any special angles. Those guys are just watching the TV broadcast; if TV didn't show it until after the commercial, Michigan's people didn't see it until then, either. But the Big Ten is supposed to look at all the camera angles. This was a massive failure by the conference and obviously 4 to 7 points could be the difference in a game. (Since it was a 3rd down play, Oregon could have kicked - or missed - a chip shot field goal instead of being awarded a touchdown; they likely wouldn't have gone for a touchdown and chased points that early in the game.)
Davis Warren might be okay. Warren completed 12/21 passes for 164 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. For the second week in a row, he never really put a throw in danger of being turned over. There was one play where it looked like his wind-up was interrupted by right tackle Evan Link being pushed back into him, which resulted in a fumble that Warren recovered himself. But overall, Warren did some really nice things. He impressively escaped a sack to scramble for a couple yards didn't take any sacks. Both of his touchdown throws were pinpoint-accurate, one to walk-on wideout Peyton O'Leary and one to Tyler Morris on a really nice adjustment. Another couple throws were ones that could have been caught but weren't reeled in (one by Loveland that led to the doomed challenge, one by Morris), and another couple were smart throwaways when nothing was open. He's not the most talented quarterback around, but if the talent around him could hold up more, he's capable of playing winning football. I'll continue to assert that a lot of the early-season issues when he began the year as the starter stemmed from other guys (Donovan Edwards, Evan Link, Colston Loveland, etc.) not doing their jobs. Warren isn't dynamic enough to make up for others' mistakes, but he's consistent enough to be a gear in the clock.
Missing two cornerbacks wasn't ideal. The absence of cornerback Will Johnson wasn't a surprise - we now know his injury is turf toe - but there was a surprising pre-game revelation that Jyaire Hill would also miss the game. That was less than ideal as Michigan faced perhaps the best passing attack they'll see all year, along with Texas. Aamir Hill should be a #2 or #3 corner, but instead he was forced into #1 action, and Holden burnt him to a crisp with 6 catches for 149 yards. That also forced some other guys onto the field in weird places, including Makari Paige playing at nickel and Zeke Berry playing corner. On that front, it's pretty disappointing that Michigan has veterans like Kody Jones and Myles Pollard on the roster who are apparently completely incapable of seeing the field. That's not to mention walk-on Keshaun Harris, who started a few games last year and now . . . doesn't play a lick of defense. Harris now solely returns kickoffs, something he's not very good at doing.
Speaking of Harris. Once again, I want to point out that a program like Michigan should not be relying on a walk-on like Harris to return kickoffs. I know the label "walk-on" doesn't mean everything, but Harris didn't get a scholarship for a reason. Yes, he's fast - one of the fastest players on the team - but he has shown zero ability to find a lane, break a tackle, or make someone miss. This is less about Harris, who I don't want to denigrate, and more about the fact that the coaching staff hasn't identified someone with more dynamic ability. People like Cole Cabana, Tavierre Dunlap, and other backup wide receivers and defensive backs should be able to return kickoffs. This type of role needs to be recruited. Michigan had success with the likes of A.J. Henning and Giles Jackson, but the guy with the 87-yard punt return last year, Semaj Morgan, doesn't return kickoffs and only returns punts sometimes.
People want to blame Wink Martindale. I don't know. Michigan gave up a season-high 38 points, but one touchdown wasn't a touchdown, and Michigan was down both its starting cornerbacks. I know Oregon lost leading receiver Tez Johnson to injury after just two touches (one catch, one punt return), but losing two corners for a team short on playable corners is a more significant setback. Michigan also has an offense averaging 5.05 yards per play, which is #116 nationally, and their 5.09 yards per play in this game was just barely any better. The only consistent offensive weapon was Loveland, who had 7 catches for 112 yards. It's complementary football, and the offense isn't holding up its end of the bargain.
Here's hoping for six wins. Michigan has undefeated Indiana, struggling Northwestern, and one-loss Ohio State left on its schedule. The Wolverines need one victory to ensure at least a .500 season and a bowl game appearance. Coming off of a 15-0 national championship, this is a precipitous drop-off - not just in wins, but in the separation from the good teams. There's really been no doubt who's the better team when it comes to Texas and Oregon.
Why are analysts relying on TV crews for reviews? It's our stadium. Where does All22 & practice film come from? I honestly assumed a multimillion dollar operation had camera angles near that of a teen on tiktok ...
ReplyDeleteSpTms Coach has to go. Not just the Tre Pierce play, but we've had SpTms crap all year. Lol about KR though. Last year I thought Cole Cabana might sneak in there, and dude is NOWHERE to be seen
I understand coaches getting the blame, but thought the same about Corner. Not many teams are competing with Oregon without CB2 & CB2. On offense, there's not much to do with the worst WR room we've had in years and a subpar OL. Davis did better, but he's still not The Guy ... but holy crap there's a difference between creative (using The Don, passing with Orji) and having Semaj throw a clutch pass, or only bringing Orji in to run into a brick wall
Grateful for the last three years, but 6-6 is worse than anyone thought possible, and even THAT is going to be a fight
I blame Wink because he is getting paid $3 million, one of the highest paid asst coach. He has to be better than this. We can’t fire him. I hope he has the decency to retire.
ReplyDeleteGiven how our season has gone, I will not be surprised if we have seen the last of Will Johnson. As a potential first rounder, I do not see why he would rush to return to the field to risk further injury.
For the game? Nah, I don't blame wink & only wink. For the season? Yeah, he's made a ton of mistakes. But you know what covers some of that up? Depth! Teams across the nation went after the Portal a year ago, but we didn't. After Graham, Grant & Benny, we had no one ready to play. After Stewart & Moore, only hope for TJ Guy. Will has a long history of injury ... and we got a single FCS guy. Just not good enough
DeleteI think Will hurt his draft potential. A couple great Picks, but was also beaten a bit, and sidelined the rest of the season
Wink would be equally to blame if he made $300K. I really don't get this mindset. His job is to be a good DC, regardless of his pay.
DeleteI trust Will Johnson will do all he can to be on the field against OSU. I doubt he is making a business decision here.
Warren played the game of his life yesterday and even with Colston Loveland and a defense fixated on stopping the run game, and rotating snaps with a running QB, he barely completed 50% of his passes and managed to produce one TD drive over 28 yards (the fumbled punt was a gift and Michigan scored that completing one 7 yard pass). Kudos to Warren for addressing the horrendous INT issues at the start of the year, but if you are trying to put this game on a walk-on QBs shoulders to defeat the #1 team in the country -- you lose.
ReplyDeleteOregon is a good opponent. The coaching staff deserves plenty of criticism but this was not the worst performance of the year in that regard (Illinois was). Even if you clean up 4 or 5 of the worst things you can hang on coaches, Oregon still wins this game easily.
Davis "Warren Davis" Warren is not good. He could be a Cade McNamara level player, which is.... not good! He is a 22 year old walk on who looks like a 22 year old walk on. Even with the game of his life yesterday -- there was a lot of meat on the bone. How many 3 and outs did he oversee? A good QB should be TOASTING opposing teams who are cheating to stop the run. A good QB should be FEASTING with a receiver like Colston Loveland. All I hear about is separation from the WRs holding the passing game back but how much separation did Evan Stewart have when Gabriel was putting the ball in his pocket for a TD? I realize the bar is very low for QB play in 2024 but Warren Davis is not the answer for 2025.
The Tyler Morris TD looked to me like it was intended for O'Leary. I think they got lucky there. But I don't know for sure.
Warren made several very good throws yesterday. Warren avoided turnovers yesterday (except for the fumble). That's progress in the context of 2024 but it's not GOOD. The big thing to note about Warren is that once again the run game could do next to nothing with him at QB. Maybe you think Kalel Mullings suddenly forgot how to RB, but he has 21 carries for 34 yards since Warren took over. That's not a coincidence. Edwards is not exactly lighting it up either with 19 carries for 76 yards.
Warren can be McNamara -- that's not good enough for Michigan. It's not even good enough for Iowa.
All I hear for Warren is excuses.
The offense generated 10 points for itself while punting 5 times and turning it over on downs once. I don't care if the passing stats are respectable in a vacuum if the offense doesn't score, the QB isn't doing his job. I'm reminded here of the 2015 OSU game - a butt-whoopin that the QB avoided any blame for because of putting up inoffensive passing stats.
The ineptitude is not OK. A QB is more than his passing stats.
I'm going to take opinion out of it. Here are Davis Warren's grades from unbiased sources:
DeletePFF: #58 passer in the country, right behind Georgia's Carson Beck
PER: does not qualify due to playing time, but his PER against Big Ten teams would rank him #33 nationally, right behind BYU's Jake Retzlaff
Since his reinstatement as starter, Warren has been playing well. And even with his bad games figured in to PFF, he's still a solid passer.
I think you're pinning too much blame on Warren. He can't carry the whole offense on his back. The OL can't move people off the ball, and there's no deep threat (Amorion Walker missed yet another game).
The offense averaged 5.09 yards per play against a team giving up 4.96 yards per play.
You can badmouth him if you want, but PFF disagrees with you and so do efficiency stats. He has also not turned over the ball and taken zero sacks for two straight weeks.
What good are good passing grades if the offense isn't scoring?
DeleteThat's my biggest question. But asserting your opinion on Warren "playing well" as a fact does NOT hold up to the evidence.
#58 in the country by PFF = not good! Worse than Orji the last 2 weeks = not good!
Selectively omitting worst performances of the season to yield #33 in the country in PER = not good!
It's funny to me that you are willing to credit QBs as passing threats to open up the run game for RBs without any evidence for it, but when presented with contradictory evidence (strong correlation), you ignore the issue of QB effect on the run game entirely.
He has produced respectable QBRs in the last 2 weeks, and respectable passer ratings. Nobody can take that fact away, but it's also evident that he is doing so because defenses don't care about him. They don't respect him and they are instead focused on stopping the run game.
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I'm going to "take opinion out of it" and say that Warren sucked ass the first 3 games of the season and he is better the last 2 weeks but that is still not good and not OK. He is a one dimensional player and in that one dimension he is worse than mediocre. As a result, the RBs are not producing with him at QB the last 2 weeks and the offense is not playing well (still).
Not throwing INTs is good. Fumbling once in two games is not. The offense producing 1 or 2 legitimate drives a game against Oregon is not good. The offense producing 3 legitimate drives against MSU is not good.
You like Warren because he looks like the kind of QB you like and so you are making a lot of excuses. You don't make the same excuses for Orji because he doesn't look like the kind of QB you like. But the results are still not good. The offense is not good with Warren and that responsibility falls on Warren. Just as the offense not being good with Orji fell on Orji. Ditto for Tuttle (where the offense was at it's absolute worst).
Would it be better with Orji? Probably not much! But let's not pretend the QB play is substantially better here. Let's not pretend things are good or even "OK". They are bad. They have been bad. They remain bad.
The excuse against Washington was that it was an elite pass defense and that's why Orji's replacement was a turnover machine. The excuse against Arkansas State was that everyone else was messing up while the QB threw 3 INTs that are not his fault. Now the excuse is that the OL is bad -- where was that excuse for Orji? LOL. It was all his fault.
What I'm not hearing is an explanation why Minnesota and USC still stand as the most impressive offensive performances of the season. Avoiding turnovers was something you dismissed saying it "wasn't everything" when it was Tuttle vs Orji and now that it's Warren-in-the-last-2-weeks, it's a big feather in his cap. PFF grades...have Orji over Warren each of the last 2 weeks. I guess PFF thinks we have 2 QBs who are playing well?
Anyway, agree to disagree I guess. But the facts are not in your favor here Thunder. You were very harsh on Orji and you are making all kinds of lame excuses for Warren.
LOL at bringing up Amarion Walker. What makes you think he is a deep threat?
DeleteAn example of excuse making -- Walker missing is an excuse for Warren being unable to throw anything deep (and coaches not trusting him to even try). Loveland missing was ignored in Orji narrative.
Delete"a program like Michigan should not be relying on a walk-on like Harris to return kickoffs. "
ReplyDeleteYes. But kick off returner is the least of it. Kickoff returns are mostly irrelevant but who is out there on 20-50 plays a game on offense is massively relevant.
We have a walk-on QB throwing to a walk-on WR with a walk-on FB running routes.
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I agree with Thunder that Wink shouldn't be thrown in the trash bin, but I also see why the questions are coming up. This is an ELITE DL, with two plus LBs, and a secondary with well above average talent. The sum of the parts is greater than the whole. There is a pattern here of blitzes coming that are nowhere NEAR coming close to ontime and the 3rd down performance has been absolutely atrocious. Can argue we've been spoiled with great tackling the last couple years and relying on too many young guys this year but even vets like QJohnson and Paige appear to be struggling. I don't think it's a train wreck, but it's not very encouraging for 2025, that this group, with this talent, is not a top 10 outfit.
The offense has put the defense in position to fail at times this year. That was not the case yesterday. Oregon whooped Michigan's tail. The CBs are a reasonable excuse for that to a degree but 4 of the first 5 drives in this game were TDs for Oregon. These were 60 something, 70 something, 80 something, and 90 something yard drives. Not just the offense putting it on a platter for the other side.
They did stiffen in the second half (2 punts in 4 drives), so perhaps a sign of optimism for Wink making adjustments...but that's being generous.
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I think Thunder is spot on with the goal for 2024 being to make a bowl game. I think the other thing I hope to see is more playing time for some of the younger guys who we think might return next year. Mason Curtis, Edmonds, Rolder, Pierce, Etta, Kendrick Bell, Hogan Hansen, Ben Hall, etc. IT may not be optimal for 2024 but those guys should be out there to start getting more prepared for 2025.
The kickoff return thing is a microcosm of what's going on with the whole offense. There are no playmakers.
DeleteNo playmakers? Wow. No one saw that coming
DeleteWrong -- Loveland, Mullings, and Edwards are playmakers. Bredeson is a playmaker as a blocker. That's 4 guys who are going to play in the NFL.
DeleteLack of playmakers isn't the problem with this offense it's the QB position, bad coaching, an incoherent gameplan, and a mediocre OL.
Omitting WRs from "playmakers" ... noted
Delete#iwasright
You can include Morris and Semaj too! They aren't great WRs but they are playmakers. Hard to see when QB is inept but we saw enough of it in 2023.
Deletebottomline is that the offense is loaded with playmakers. We have similar play-making ability as the 2021 squad (2 good RBs but nobody like Loveland). So that's not the problem.
DeleteQB, OL, scheme are the problem.
Other than "fire everyone right now!", or "let things run out for three years and reset," what can realistically be done?
ReplyDeleteI think this is tough to really consider right now since we're in the midst of the season. Add 1-2 wins (and possibly a bowl win) and it could change people's minds. Let's just say Michigan beats Indiana (an upset) and Northwestern (expected) but loses to Ohio State (very likely), they'd be 7-5 going into a bowl game. Pull off a win in the bowl - even though I think bowls are meaningless - and suddenly it's an 8-5 year, which doesn't sound too terrible, all things considered.
DeleteRealistically, you can...
- Land Bryce Underwood and/or a good QB who has 1 year of eligibility remaining
- Replace the OC, OL coach, and ST coach (I'm not CALLING for their firings, just saying those would be possibilities)
- Find a good RB, C, OT, WR, DT, and CB in the transfer portal
- Convince Rod Moore to come back for 2025
Thunder,
DeleteIt is realistic to get one of the items you listed as “to-do list” in the offseason but the chances of doing all of the above is practically nil.
Getting starter at DT, OT, WR and CB positions? If we were able to do it, we would hv done it this past offseason.
This is why I think we are going to have another 6-6 or 7-5 season next year. There are just too many holes to fill. Not only players but also coaches.
@ FT 10:22 a.m.
DeleteI don't think that's a pie-in-the-sky list. I think it's very do-able, especially if the narrative is true that NIL has made some serious improvements over the last eight months or so.
You have to remember that Michigan was bringing back Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant (along with Rayshaun Benny), so all the overtures to get a DT weren't to find a starter - they were to find a rotational piece.
As for OT, I don't know how hard Michigan tried, because they had confidence in the guys they were bringing back, including a starter in Myles Hinton who has been Michigan's best lineman this year.
You aren't going to land a good WR in the transfer portal unless/until you shore up the QB position, so getting Underwood or a solid transfer QB would be significant. Nobody wanted to come here for the 2024 season because nobody had any clue what the QB room would look like, and it turns out that was probably a good idea, because Orji/Tuttle/Warren have mostly stunk it up (along with the OL and coaches screwing things up).
As for CB...I would argue they landed a starter in Aamir Hall. He was an FCS All-American and might be okay as a #2 corner. It's just that Jyaire Hill (and Will Johnson) are better. Saturday really stunk for Hall because he was the #1 corner available. But if he's your #2 guy, you can scheme your defense to help him, either by putting a safety over the top, putting him on the weaker receiver, running cloud coverage to just let him play the flat, etc.
With Hinton leaving, there's an opening for a starter. With Johnson (likely) leaving, there's an opening for a starter. With Graham and Grant (likely) leaving, there's an opening for two starters. With no established players at receiver and a better QB (likely) coming in, there are openings for WRs.
This is why I said above that it's a difficult task at this point in the season to assess what can be done moving forward, because we don't truly know what QB will be here, what players are leaving (for the draft, for the transfer portal, etc.), etc. If Bryce Underwood ends up committing to Michigan, that might totally change who you can sign out of high school (Derek Meadows?) or what transfer options might be willing to come catch passes from the #1 QB recruit in the country.
I meant to mention above that Aamir Hall has started three games this season, and he has played 357 snaps, which is #9 on the entire defense. That's a de facto starter role, even if he's technically come "off the bench" in five games.
DeleteThe choice at QB is not limited to a freshman or a grad transfer. It is not 2015 anymore. Many teams are recruiting early enrollees, freshman, sophomores, and juniors with multiple years of eligibility left these days. Michigan has done this at multiple other positions.
DeleteBeyond QB I agree with Thunder's call for a OC, OT, and WR. If they are able to get Giudice, El Hadi, Link, and Gentry back that should be a decent start but Giudice and Link both seem better suited for OG.
Morris does not look like a WR1 candidate as he hasn't seemed to progress since last year. Need more there. I think TE and RB are probably fine with in-house options.
Here is where we can add an impact player back through NIL as well --- get Max Bredeson back for year 5.
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Defense is tougher.
Not only do you have to find an impact player at DT and DE you also have to talk Benny and Guy into returning for their 5th year. That's just to avoid a total disaster.
Is a proven WR coming to Michigan if they are projected to start a freshman QB behind a makeshift line for a coach whose philosophy is SMASH? Color me skeptical.
DeleteThat seems like something that would appeal more to someone in high school.
We can get a guy like Cornelius Johnson or Dylan Baldwin, but I don't think we're getting an impact NFL caliber WR. We can do better than CJ Charleston and Patrick O'Leary though.
I think you can get a "proven" WR who's early in his career. A guy at a lower level (in the AAC or something) who wants to play at a bigger school, or maybe a rising sophomore or junior who just wants to find a new situation. You're probably not getting a proven fifth year senior who wants to improve his draft stock.
DeleteI think the pitch is pretty easy: "Hey, the last time we had a 5-star quarterback, we rampaged through everyone, our receivers got drafted, and the QB got drafted in the top half of the 1st round."
DeleteThat 5 star was a junior.
DeleteI'm all for getting elite proven underclassmen from AAC or whatever (a WR version of Josiah Stewart), but how many of those are there? And won't Oregon and OSU be after them also?
I'm skeptical. Hope that's unwarranted but I don't see us doing much better than McCully or Baldwin types. I think the QB and the style of play will continue to be something Michigan has to overcome until proven otherwise, to attract high end portal talent.
It's too broad of a question about QBs. Yes, maybe Oregon and OSU will be after them...and maybe not! But Oregon and OSU didn't get Cam Ward, who's leading an undefeated team. Oregon got Dillon Gabriel from a Big 12/SEC school. OSU got Will Howard from a Big 12 school.
DeleteI said AAC as an example. No need to take it quite so literally.
to clarify - I meant the WRs.
DeleteI think we can get a top flight QB from the Portal. Prestige program with $ to spend.
and that will help with WRs too, if it happens.
But if we get Underwood -- I don't see it helping with proven WRs. Recruits? Sure - the future is ahead of them. A proven player? I don't see that guy hitching his wagon to a freshman QB in a Moore/Campbell offense. Pointing to JJ won't help because JJ didn't do anything as a freshman either, and it was not exactly stiff competition he faced.
So to reiterate -- totally onboard with going to AAC/MAC or other lesser conferences -- this is a great way to do well IMO! I just don't see us getting the top target at WR, either from the 2 major conferences or from lesser conferences because the offense will be too questionable unless they land a proven QB first.