Preview: Michigan vs. Northwestern

 

A.J. Henning (image via Draft Network)

RUSH OFFENSE vs. NORTHWESTERN RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan ranks #73 nationally in rushing offense (155.5 yards/game) and #74 in yards per carry (4.34). Indiana largely shut down the rushing game two weeks ago in a disappointing effort from the offensive line. Kalel Mullings (141 carries, 740 yards, 8 TD) still leads the team in rushing, but he has ceded carries lately to Donovan Edwards (114 carries, 513 yards, 3 TD) and even Benjamin Hall (4 carries, 9 yards against Indiana). Head coach Sherrone Moore hinted that a couple other backs could see playing time this week, including freshmen Micah Ka'apana and Jordan Marshall. The offensive line should see the return of starting RG Giovanni El-Hadi this week, but with RT Andrew Gentry out for the season and backup OT Jeffrey Persi working back from an injury, the right tackle spot will be manned by Evan Link. Northwestern is #28 in rush defense (114.6 yards allowed/game) and #28 in yards allowed per carry (3.59). The general trend is that the solid teams have run the ball well against the Wildcats, and the bad teams haven't; Washington, Indiana, Iowa, and Ohio State have all gone for 144+ yards on the ground. Michigan hasn't been greatly effective at running the ball, but they are pretty committed to hammering away until they clearly can't do it. Junior weakside LB Mac Uihlein (6'1", 230) leads the team with 65 tackles, followed by redshirt junior CB (yikes!) Theran Johnson (5'11", 182) and redshirt sophomore nickel Robert Fitzgerald (6'0", 208) with 44 stops each. The defensive front is made up of fourth-year or older players, with 6'3", 310 lb. DT R.J. Pearson and 6'2", 297 lb. DT Carmine Bastone in the middle; one defensive end is Aidan Hubbard (6'4", 252), the brother of former Ohio State and current NFL defensive end Sam Hubbard. Hubbard and 6'3", 272 lb. DE Jaylen Pate lead the team with 5 tackles for loss each. I don't think Michigan will run over Northwestern, but I do think they will be able to keep the chains moving, especially if they can incorporate QB Alex Orji in some +1 runs.
Advantage: Michigan

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PASS OFFENSE vs. NORTHWESTERN PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #129 in passing offense (134.6 yards/game) and #133 - out of 134 - in yards per attempt (5.6). Davis Warren is slightly better in those categories (144.8 yards/game, 6.0 yards/attempt) and has the best passing efficiency on the team of anyone not named Donovan Edwards, but it has been ugly most of the year. The right tackle spot with Link has been abysmal in pass protection, and even when the pass pro holds up, the only player consistently able to get open is TE Colston Loveland (53 receptions, 560 yards, 4 TD). Michigan is tied for #36 in sacks allowed (1.4 per game), but considering they are a ball-control, run-oriented offense that tries not to drop back a ton, those numbers are skewed. Northwestern is #101 in pass defense (241.7 yards allowed/game) and tied for #59 in yards allowed per pass (7.1). They rank #62 in passing efficiency defense and #66 in sacks, so it's a middle-of-the-pack pass defense pretty much all the way around. The leading sack guy is Hubbard with 4.0. On the back end, the leading interceptor is Johnson with 2, one of which he returned for an 85-yard touchdown against Iowa. The solid passing teams have been good against Northwestern, and the bad teams haven't been good. Michigan is a bad passing team. If Michigan can run the ball and set up some play action passes, then I think Davis Warren can have a decent dink-and-dunk day, but we're unlikely to see many big plays.
Advantage: Northwestern

RUSH DEFENSE vs. NORTHWESTERN RUSH OFFENSE
The Wolverines are #11 in rush defense (102.4 yards allowed/game) and #20 in yards allowed per carry (3.36). Indiana was the fourth team this season to be held under 60 yards rushing by Michigan's defense (Fresno State, Arkansas State, and Minnesota were the others). Inside linebackers Ernest Hausmann (70 tackles) and Jaishawn Barham (59) lead the team in stops, while DE Josaiah Stewart (11 tackles for loss) and DT Mason Graham (7 TFLs) lead the way in stops behind the line. Overall, Michigan is #44 in tackles for loss per game (6.1). Northwestern is #121 in rushing offense (105.9 yards/game) and #115 in yards per carry (3.52). The leading rusher is fifth year senior RB Cam Porter (5'10", 213) with 424 yards and 6 touchdowns on 3.96 yards/carry. The backup is sophomore speedster Joseph Himon II (5'9", 186) who averages 5.06 yards/carry but has just 238 yards and 2 touchdowns for the year. Sophomore QB Jack Lausch (6'2", 209) is a Davis Warren-esque runner with a little more bulk, and he has 75 carries for 226 yards and 2 scores. The entire offensive line should be players in their fourth year or older, so it's an experienced group, but not a very mobile or powerful one; there is a chance that former USC recruit Cooper Lovelace will miss the game and be replaced by true freshman Ezomo Oratokhai (6'4", 294) at left guard, so that will be a spot to watch as Oratokhai could be facing Graham and Kenneth Grant. Overall, Michigan should handle the offensive line and running game effectively.
Advantage: Michigan

PASS DEFENSE vs. NORTHWESTERN PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #88 in pass defense (232.8 yards allowed/game), but that number has slowly been climbing after some real early-season struggles, particularly against Washington and Texas. They're allowing 6.7 yards/attempt, which is tied for #42 nationally, and they're #63 in passing efficiency defense. After allowing 12 touchdowns over the first six weeks of the year, they have allowed just 5 over the past four weeks. And a big chunk of that has been without All-American CB Will Johnson, whose status is uncertain for this week while he has been dealing with a turf toe injury. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale seems to be settling in a little bit. Northwestern is #119 in passing offense (178.5 yards/game) and #130 in yards per attempt (5.8). They have just 5 touchdowns this year and 6 interceptions, and those numbers match those of Davis Warren (so they don't include the numbers from Alex Orji and Jack Tuttle). The passing efficiency is #129, three spots lower than Michigan. Yeah, they're that terrible. This is despite having former 4-star recruit and Michigan player A.J. Henning (5'10", 192), a speedster who has 45 catches for 468 yards and 3 touchdowns this season. Fellow senior WR Bryce Kirtz (6'0", 195) leads the team with 506 yards, even though he has 34 receptions; oddly, Kirtz has yet to score a touchdown this season. Lausch is completing 54.6% of his passes and replaced early-season starter Mike Wright, who was mobile but couldn't throw the ball downfield at all. Northwestern is #48 nationally in giving up sacks, allowing 1.6 per game.
Advantage: Michigan

ROSTER NOTES

• Players offered by Michigan include: WR A.J. Henning, OT Caleb Tiernan
• Northwestern LB Nigel Glover entered the transfer portal last off-season and considered transferring to Michigan
• Northwestern players from the state of Michigan include: DL Callen Campbell (Sault Sainte Marie), OL Idrys Cotton (Plymouth), OL Josh Thompson (Fenton), OT Caleb Tiernan (Detroit Country Day)
• Northwestern WR A.J. Henning played for Michigan from 2020-2022. He ran 15 times for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns; caught 25 passes for 198 yards; returned 18 kickoffs for 418 yards and 1 touchdown; and returned 57 punts for 475 yards and 1 touchdown
• Northwestern DL Aidan Hubbard is the younger brother of former Ohio State and current NFL DE Sam Hubbard

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .

• On October 23, 2021, Michigan beat Northwestern 33-7
• RB Blake Corum (19 carries, 119 yards, 2 TD) and RB Hassan Haskins (23 carries, 110 yards, 2 TD) combined for 42 carries, 229 yards, and 4 TD on the ground
• CB D.J. Turner II returned 1 interception for 23 yards
• Michigan held Northwestern QB Ryan Hilinski to 14/29 for 114 yards and 1 interception

PREDICTION

• Michigan 26, Northwestern 10