Thursday, January 2, 2025

Michigan 19, Alabama 13

 

Brandyn Hillman (#6) celebrates after a sack (image via Hawaii Tribune-Herald)

Surprise, surprise, surprise! For the second game in a row, almost nobody gave Michigan a chance to win. And for the second game in a row, almost everybody was wrong. The mighty Alabama Crimson Tide, who almost made the College Football Playoff with a 9-3 record, fell to 9-4. And when all is said and done, on paper that's not far from where Michigan finished at 8-5. Alabama had lost some players to the transfer portal, but Michigan was missing ten starters (Myles Hinton, Colston Loveland, Kalel Mullings, Tyler Morris, Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, Josaiah Stewart, Will Johnson, Makari Paige, Tommy Doman) and the guy who was on the cover of NCAA '25 (Donovan Edwards) and still won the game.

Hit the jump for more.


Bowl records don't matter anymore. I want to say this close to the front, because I've been saying this for several years and it still applies. Whether Michigan won or lost, it didn't matter. Some teams have players opt out and the backups want to shine. Some teams have players play who wish they weren't there. In this case, I wonder if Alabama's players saw Michigan's depleted lineup and thought, "Oh, this is going to be an easy win. We're going to crush these guys." And then when Alabama got hit in the mouth in the first quarter, they didn't know what to do. So I won't say that Michigan was better than Alabama in 2024 or that Michigan has a superior program going forward, but on December 31, 2024, Michigan was the better football team.

The defense appears to be in good hands. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale is slated to return in 2025, and that looks like a good thing. There's still an NFL hiring cycle remaining, and with the whole league trying to hire Baltimore Ravens-style defensive coordinators, there's no guarantee that a team won't take a shot on Martindale. But if he returns with the players who are expected to return, that side of the ball seems to be in good shape. Even with 75% of Michigan's defensive line gone - including two potential first round picks at defensive tackle - the remaining players got constant pressure on Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe. Throw in a variety of blitzes that Milroe didn't recognize (CB Aamir Hall and S Brandyn Hillman each notched a sack, and Hall's was of the strip sack variety), and it was an ugly day for the star quarterback. Milroe finished 16/32 for 192 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 1 lost fumble, and 5 sacks taken. He had a 41-yard designed run and still managed just 7 net rushing yards on 16 attempts.

Jordan Marshall had a good debut as a starting running back. With Michigan's top two running backs opting out to prepare for the NFL, true freshman Marshall was given his first opportunity. After managing just 8 carries for 20 yards during the regular season, he broke out with 23 carries for 100 yards in this game alone. The offensive line didn't provide a ton of running room, so Marshall had to do a lot of it on his own by breaking tackles and bouncing things outside. But it's good to see that Michigan has another tackle-breaking back, because that's going to help them keep their identity moving forward under Chip Lindsey. The second-stringer for this game was Benjamin Hall (16 carries, 28 yards), who basically just got what was blocked for him, so I think it's good that Michigan is planning to bring in Alabama's Justice Haynes for a good 1-2 punch with Marshall.

The passing game was abysmal. I'm not going to harp on this because it was something we've seen all season, but starting quarterback Davis Warren (9/12, 73 yards, 1 TD) and backup Alex Orji (2/3, 2 yards, 1 INT) combined for 75 passing yards. The "leading" receiver was Semaj Morgan, who caught all 4 of his targets and had 19 yards after the catch . . . but still managed just 5 net receiving yards. Yes, you read that correctly: he ran for 19 yards after the catch and eked out just 5 total yards. Gross. Fredrick Moore had 3 catches for 37 yards, including a nice toe-tapping catch for a TD from Warren. Orji's only downfield attempt resulted in an ugly interception, further strengthening my argument that he should use his exceptional athleticism to change positions.

I didn't like Michigan's screen game, but I appreciated the attempt. Interim offensive coordinator Steve Casula's tweak for this game was to include more RPO-style plays, which included a screen wrinkle where fullback Max Bredeson would motion across the formation, the ball would be snapped with him in the slot, and then the QB would throw the ball to a slot receiver with both the outside receiver and Bredeson blocking for him. I believe Michigan tried it four or five times, and it was ugly pretty much every time, except when walk-on Joe Taylor gained 9 yards on one catch. I like that Casula was trying to give easy throws to the quarterbacks, but in reality, the timing just wasn't there, and Michigan's outside receivers didn't block it well enough, anyway.

The offensive line wasn't good but it was a possible glimpse at next year. With Hinton opting out of the bowl game and Jeffrey Persi and Andrew Gentry both unavailable, Michigan went with a true freshman Andrew Sprague at right tackle and moved starting right tackle Evan Link to left tackle for the bowl game. Sprague had just 6 total snaps coming into this game, played 67 against Alabama, and came away with a grade of 63.3 from PFF, which is respectable. Meanwhile, Link managed just his ninth-best overall grade (52.7) of the season, while flipping to the left side. It may be noteworthy, though, that his pass blocking grade of 87.2 was his second-highest of the season behind the 88.2 he posted against Michigan State. I talked in my unpublished game preview (sorry, but I just got through the offense before running out of time) about Link having been a left tackle in high school and being surprised he looked so uncomfortable at right tackle this season. I don't really buy that he lacks the athleticism to play tackle. He may be a guard in the long run, but I'm not ready to pull the plug on him as a tackle. Regardless, with Link at left tackle, Sprague at right tackle, Greg Crippen at center (who announced his return for 2025 on social media), and right guard Giovanni El-Hadi likely coming back in 2025, this may have been a preview of next year's line. The only guaranteed departure is left guard Josh Priebe. Michigan is currently pursuing transfer portal offensive linemen, as well as bringing in star recruit Andrew Babalola and possibly Ty Haywood. So there's a long way to go before things are decided, but it was a good thing for these guys to get reps together in a game situation.

It was a good way to end the year. Whether bowl game records matter or not (hint: they don't!), it's still a good feeling to come away with a win. It does give players, coaches, and fans a happy feeling to end on a high note. Now these players can walk into the off-season having felt success against another good team, and it was the first win as a major contributor for a lot of those young players like Sprague and Marshall. Anytime you walk into a competitive situation, you want to emerge victorious. And Michigan did that, so . . .

. . . Hail to the Victors. Go Blue.

58 comments:

  1. So the bowl games do matter. As you said, "Anytime you walk into a competitive situation, you want to emerge victorious." Add in the fact that you've got a big crowd and TV audience, and that many players are getting the chance to show the world what they've got, and these non-playoff bowl games can be huge. Especially when we win (c:

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Right. I think there's a distinction there, which I made above but perhaps not clearly. Bowl RECORDS don't matter. I really don't care if Jim Harbaugh went 1-and-whatever or if Rutgers is 4-0 in their last four bowl games. Sherrone Moore is 1-0 in bowl games? *shrug* Judging a program or a coach by their bowl record is about as useful as judging an NFL team for its preseason record. I think the Lions went 4-0 in the preseason before they went 0-16, and there have been Super Bowl teams who went 0-4 in the preseason.

      Playing time matters. Performance matters for individuals. Success matters. Confidence matters. The win-loss records don't.

      Delete
    2. Agree. I stopped weighing Bowl games ten years ago when the opt outs started, and especially when we lost key guys against Florida following the 2o18 season

      But when we win ... LFG!!!

      Delete
  2. agreed, these non-playoff bowl games offer little other than slight momentum shifts. a loss may not devastate a program but a win can only help recruiting (hs/portal), help further instill work hard for positive results culture, and put players in slightly better mindset to start winter workouts. the practices are important so it can be a big deal for struggling teams to become bowl eligible.

    clearly next years team will be determined by QB/OL. they have enough talent returning on D with solid identity & concept continuity to compete in the conference if the O pulls its weight. time will tell. fun end to the season though to somehow beat 2 top 10 programs despite an offense struggling to top 200 yards

    ReplyDelete
  3. Davis Warren had me screaming at the TV: leaves a clean pocket, holds the ball too long ... struggles with most throws. That said, Orji had me wishing we had a healthy Warren. With solid passpro all day, he looked like a WR, TE or RB thrown in as an emergency option

    Coach Moore said he wanted to ADD size, but didn't say how much ... Fred Moore is only 2" taller than Tyler Morris, but went up and grabbed our first contested TD. He looked like an option for 2o25

    Semaj was frustrating. We know he is quick & has long speed, not dude couldn't get anything done with the ball in hand all year

    IOL couldn't open holes, but without much a pass game, it's tough to judge ... my second watch was more favorite on Sprague, but he & Link need time in the weight room AND to be pushed in competition. Attack the Portal please

    Agree on Haynes. Marshall made something out of nothing several times, but Hall isn't that guy. No other RB got a carry. I hope Bredeson returns, but if not maybe Hall can contribute as a hammering panda

    On D, we may have lost Derrick Moore. Dude was an absolute beast out there. If not, our D is elite

    All hail Amir Hall, who started this year shakey, but may have played himself into the draft boards. As big as Milroe is, Hall never flinched, and was attacking. Coverage was solid too. Get another out of the Portal

    If Wink leaves, it'll suck. But Morgan may be ready, and earned an opportunity with the Secondary's end of year (and recruiting) ... watch out for rivals trying to poach him. I was so wrong to want him out after Illinois!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The size at WR would help with the blocking. I just don't think the current guys have what it takes to block at an effective level, for a variety of reasons. For the most part, they're small. But they also lack tenacity. Fred Moore, Tyler Morris, etc. aren't going to push anyone around. Kendrick Bell might get there, but he's still light and he's converting from quarterback.

      I would like to see Michigan find at least one starting tackle in the portal and then let Link/Sprague duke it out for the other spot, as well as Babalola/Frazier/Haywood (possibly).

      I see Hall as an undrafted guy because he doesn't have great speed, but I think he turned into about what I expected by the end of the year. It took some time early in the season for him to adjust, but he's a solid player. If he could come back in 2025, I would be glad.

      Delete
    2. Hall exceeded my expectations. I thought he was there to compete with & get the most out of Jaiyre ... dude replaced Will MF Johnson!

      Maybe CBs don't matter? Nah, that's stupid

      Delete
    3. #obsessed
      #rentfree

      Positional value is made explicit in the NFL via salaries. You can argue college is different, but it's mostly not.

      Salaries at CB have really changed in the last few years. It's kind of gone from a premium position to a lower value position (flipping with safeties and LBs somewhat) as defensive schemes have evolved to defend pass happy offenses.

      https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/vywpg1/oc_understanding_the_market_for_each_starting/

      https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/15dm01z/oc_trends_in_nfl_american_football_pay_by/#lightbox

      The second link shows that, on the high end of the market at least, CB has gone from the 4th highest paid position group to the 7th. RB, in a trend that goes back a couple decades now, continues to decrease in pay relevance in every measure (top of the market, average salary, etc.). It's getting down there to the level of specialists like Fullbacks and Kickers.

      At this point the average running back (including backups) makes less than the average kicker.

      https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-kicker-running-back-salary-average/cq4vd3syoteuz5nep05yx94k

      But RB isn't alone in seeing relative value decrease in the NFL. TE isn't far above RB.

      Maybe it's not THAT stupid.

      Maybe CBs don't matter that much, or at least not as much as they used to when there was more one-on-one on an island coverage going on. But they still matter more than RBs, where the difference between investing a 1st round pick vs 6th round pick might not be very much just as the difference between a 5-star back and a 3-star back might not be very much.

      If the replacement level guy can do the job you don't need to pay big money for a incrementally better than replacement level guy. That's been evident at FB and RB for a couple decades and NFL GMs have evolved accordingly. It seems to be happening to some degree at CB too, so if Michigan is playing an NFL style defense that does a lot of zone coverage and gives CBs a lot of safety help over the top -- then yeah maybe the Amir Halls and Josh Wallace's of the world are a smarter investment than trying to get 5-star recruits that don't happen to be legacy recruits in your own backyard (I.e., unicorns, not sustainable). And maybe a $100K investment (hypothetically) in a Ben Hall as your RB2 is smarter money than a $1M investment (hypothetically) in a Justice Haynes as your RB2. Maybe that $900K could instead be going to another position.

      College football used to be mostly immune from these kind of distinctions between positions. Your constraint was on number of scholarships, not salary-caps or NIL budgets (which function like caps at the program-level). But with free agency (portal) and NIL (salaries) being introduced, CFB has become a lot like the NFL. And now we have general managers like Courtney Morgan at Alabama and Sean Magee at Michigan, whose job is to manage the salaries/NIL allocations, player acquisitions, scouting, etc.

      https://mgoblue.com/news/2024/3/6/sean-magee-named-u-m-football-general-manager

      Delete
    4. This is to say that positional value in CFB isn't just a wonky argument for things like the TTB countdown anymore. It matters now. How the GM and coach value positions (via NIL spending) directly impacts wins and losses. It's a strategic decision.

      My opinion:
      Michigan did a TREMENDOUS job hitting underutilized positions with Harbaugh in 2023 (OL/TE) and finding value in guys like Hausman and Stewart because they came with questions (underclassmen that had development ahead of him but clearly been underrated by the recruiting industry, small school guy considered to be undersized by some).

      With Moore, I see good signs with Michigan seeming to prioritize the interior DL (not only with the additions in the '25 class but the search for depth in '24 was encouraging even though it didn't pan out). I also like how Moore addressed some of the biggest roster needs in Spring of 2024 (Kicker and DB) and seems to be hitting on most of the big roster needs for 2025 as well.

      I don't like that QB was ignored in 2024 and not prioritized in 2025. I don't like that RB seems to be more important than WR to Moore and that Moore has (at least thusfar) emphasized size over skill at the WR position. I don't like that TE and OL appear to be afterthoughts - extremely un-Harbaugh (and un-Schembechler) and quite surprising for a former OL coach who espouses a motto of SMASH. (Not that mottos mean anything real.)

      But the portal river never runs dry it only ebbs and flows. Michigan can still get a boatload more guys in the next few weeks and in the spring. Never judge a recruiting class before it's complete!

      Delete
    5. College, not NFL
      MICHIGAN, not aggregate PROFESSIONAL free agency

      linking a University announcement without relevant data falls short of your recent misinterpretions, but inline with intent to misrepresent information




      *replying to your own post an hour later is textbook #rentfree ... not even YOU believe you
      Classic!

      Delete
    6. There are differences but the professionalization of college football is very real and has profound impacts on the game.

      One example, pointed out explicitly, that went over the head containing the pea is that CFB programs now have GMs.

      Replying to my posts when you don't have to is #rentfree #obsessed
      Doing it with no useful information just denying the facts is #holditup #whiteflag #notbuiltforthis

      Delete
    7. keeping it simple for you:

      Lank: see, CFB has GM's; trust the GMs ... RBs don't matter!

      ***Magee drops a bag of cash on a portal RB***

      Lank: no - this is a mistake - they're doing it wrong

      Not even YOU agree with you


      Delete
    8. Lots of GMs make mistakes. There are countless examples in the NFL. Like the Hershel Walker trade back in the day.

      Another fantasy contradiction dreamed up by the jelllybrained.

      Delete
    9. It's a mistake if Lank doesn't like it ... gotcha

      YOU shouldn't have brought up Magee, but here we are ...
      https://www.on3.com/teams/michigan-wolverines/news/elite-rbs-javian-osborne-savion-hiter-could-be-michigans-own-version-of-sonic-and-knuckles/

      Expect more of the same for a RunFirstRunOften SMASH offense

      Delete
    10. Better log on with my phone so I can drop a facepalm emoji.

      If they want to smash they better address the part that matters -- the OL.

      Delete
    11. It's not a switch because when you talk about the run game it's about the OL.

      What was MY point on Magee? Do you know or are you too busy fantasizing?

      Did I endorse Magee's approach or criticize it? Did I bring up Magee as an example of CFB becoming like the NFL or?

      #logicfailagain
      #not built for this

      PS

      I remember when a double post was a sign of emotional overreactions....every accusation is a confession.

      #not built for this
      #again

      Delete
    12. It's a switch because the we all agree on the value of OL ... we're talking about RB Lank. Focus!

      Why did you bring up Magee? Does the Magee hire or his paying for RBs support your point on RBs? Probably just making sh:t up again
      #flop
      #dodge
      #jeDub

      Delete
    13. Rhetorical questions don't work so I'll spell it out for the lil pea up there.

      What was MY point on Magee? He's a GM, like the NFL has GM. These did not exist a few years ago pre-NIL/Portal.

      Did I bring up Magee as an example of CFB becoming like the NFL? Yes. College football is becoming more like the NFL. GMs managing budgets and reckoning with positional value didn't used to exist in college. Now it does.

      Did I endorse Magee's approach or criticize it?
      I criticized it. I did not endorse it.

      I used the evidence of COLLECTIVE NFL GM BEHAVIOR to indicate positional value (via salary). I did NOT ever or even once endorse every GMs decision making. For example, the Levon Bell and Ezekiel Contracts in 2019 were flat out disasters -- but they count in those salary numbers just the same. They are outliers (of stupid GMs doing stupid things) where RBs were paid more than anyone else was willing to pay, but they are part of the data set. Those outliers did not go well.

      We dunno how much Magee paid Hayes (the top available RB option in the portal and reported to go to the highest bidder) or how things will go with Hayes (probably pretty well? if they sort out the OL) but we do have a long history in the NFL of the top RB in the free agent market getting overpaid (relative to the COLLECTIVE established value) and things working out poorly for the teams/GMs who made that decision.

      As for Jellllly....another failed gotcha attempt. Another fantasy. Another inability to think logically, understand, and counter with a cogent argument.

      HOLD IT UP!

      Delete
    14. DODGE!

      What you meant to say was "no je, the Magee hire & his paying for RBs does NOT support my point on RBs ... I was just making sh:t up again"

      put that on a sign, and h0Ld iT uP
      #flop
      #dodge
      #jeDub

      Delete
    15. Let me know where I said the Magee hire and paying RBs supports my point about RBs.

      OH yeah -- you can't -- you're just arguing with yourself again. Making up connections that don't exist except in your imagination. Claiming the dub over yourself.

      Enjoy the fantasy!

      As for the facts -- you've been curb-stomped yet again.

      HOLD THEM ALL UP!

      Delete
    16. Another dodge!

      The question was: "Why did you bring up Magee?" je93 on 9 Jan at 8:43AM

      You brought him up, and that didn't support your point
      #irrelevant
      #flop
      #reeeaching


      Boy, you better hope this drops to page 2 soon ...
      #resolution

      Delete
    17. "Denial of basic facts" ... hiring Magee had nothing to do with your claim on RBs

      You were misrepresenting that role as one that supports your claim
      "I'll stick with the GMs that agree with me"
      https://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2024/12/mikey-keene-wolverine.html?m=1

      somethin, somethin, every accusation is an confession
      #exposed
      #lyinLank
      #jeDub


      Delete
    18. Got cooked here too but that's another "childish" inconvenience.

      Magee hiring was an example of GMs in college -- college becoming more like NFL
      Magee hiring does not equal endorsing everything he does

      The second is your fantasy.
      #par

      Delete
    19. Sure. Next time we have a conversation about the similarities between the two levels, that point would be relevant. But in the context of RBs matter? Nope. Swing & miss by Lank
      #resolution
      #page2

      Delete
    20. Positional value matters in CFB. If one can't follow the convo perhaps one is not constructed for the convo.

      #holditup

      Delete
    21. Does Magee value or not value RBs?
      #checkmate
      #resolution
      #page3

      Delete
  4. Ok, ok, so Wink Martindale is officially off the list of stuff I have to worry about in 2025.

    Aside from hitting us pretty good on a couple screens and the last drive of the first half, Martindale had em completely flummoxed. 5 sacks is hard to do against anybody, against Alabama it's more so. They had absolutely no idea where it was coming from. Until the last four plays of the game, my favorite play on defense was the sack at about 3:50 in the third where Milroe waited and waited and then waited too long for a guy to come open. That one was pretty much the definition of a "coverage sack".

    The last four calls of the game were masterclass on getting pressure when you're under pressure. He rushed three then brought a guy late on the first snap. It looked like six coming on the second, but one guy picked up the back coming out and there was a guy spying Milroe walking up the middle. On the third snap, it looked like 6 again, 5 came and got a hit on Milroe. On fourth down, he only sent the D line and covered. Milroe felt every one of those calls. I'm impressed. Not that Martindale gives a rat's rear end.

    A true freshman and a redshirt freshman at the tackles bodes well for us. I didn't like seeing the Mormon kid move on as I was rooting for him, but ... he probably knew.

    I hope the young, alleged to be maulers indeed turn out to be that inside. I'd still like to see Hall get a shot at the second level.

    Feel free to accuse me of piling on, but that was a bonehead timeout. When he called it I thought to myself, "Franklinesque". Hoping this is not a thing.

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    Replies
    1. I agree on Martindale. I think he had a really good game plan. Milroe hit the wheel route for the TD and had a big run, but those things are going to happen. If Kalen DeBoer and his guys couldn't pull off a good drive or a good play here or there, I would be a little disappointed.

      On a side note, I actually really like DeBoer. I think he's a good dude and a quality coach. I think the pressure is getting to him a little bit at Alabama. For his sake I hope he figures it out, but I don't really want Alabama to have an extension of their great success.

      I haven't really been a fan of Gentry since he first got on the field at Michigan. I mean, I'm sure he's a fine person and everything, but he just doesn't have what it takes. Neither did Persi. Their feet just weren't good enough to play tackle, and they're too tall/gawky to move inside.

      Delete
    2. Good points on Wink and yeah he does absolutely not give one iota of an F about what fans and media have to say about him. That's a benefit to being an NFL veteran coaching down at the college level.

      Sherrone Moore's use of timeouts and game theory more broadly absolutely is a thing to worry about. He's young and should get better...I hope. But the instincts to make the right call are not there at all. The rigt move would be to hire some kind of analyst that Moore trusts to give him direction in the headset during games. Great leaders know their own weaknesses and get help to address them.

      Delete
  5. Obviously Mullings had more carries and also more snaps (383 to 322) than Edwards. But technically it was Edwards who started 9 games to Mullings 3.

    It will be interesting to see who is drafted and where, with both of these guys coming out at the same time.

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  6. Agree with Thunder on the optimism for the 2025 defense. What a ride for Wink on the roller coaster of public opinion over this season! Now he's a guy we worry about being poached by the NFL when people wanted him bought out around mid season. Although he denies it, I think he did learn a few things this season.

    If they can bring this coaching staff back I think they are in good shape and could perhaps be a top 10 defense in '25.

    OFFSEASON TO-DO LIST
    1. Get Rayshaun Benny back
    2. Get Rod Moore back
    3. Talk Barham into a return to play EDGE
    4. Find a portal DT
    5. Find a portal CB

    DL in '25
    Going to be a dropoff whenever you lose 3 high round NFL draft picks but there's plenty of room to be optimistic if Rayshaun Benny comes back to shore up the middle alongside Payne. Pierce and Etta made good progress this year and should emerge as strong rotation players behind them. Moore and Guy will be among the better starting edge duos in the conference and again you've got a young guy in Brandt who seems to be ascending. Nichols also impressed for a freshman. If Barham is back (as rumored), he's a high end versatile weapon. This would be an extremely veteran unit with good depth if they can keep Benny out of the draft.

    LB in '25
    Again, you have a veteran starting lineup and promising talent behind them. Hausman will be a senior and one of the stars of the defense but Rolder has played quite well when he's been healthy. He looks ready to step into a starting spot as a senior himself. Bowles and Sullivan look like talented young backups and Hood, if he returns, would be a reliable veteran option.

    DB in '25
    So much hinges on Rod Moore's return, but if it happens you've locked up your nickel spot with an all american. This would allow Berry, Hill, and Edmonds to form a solid CB rotation, maybe with reinforcements from an elite freshman class. Berry seems to have settled in with a simplified role at corner and Hill has flashed elite talent for much of the season. Safety is overflowing with good options. Metcalf and Mangham have solid starting experience at other schools and Hillman and Curtis are the talented internal options who saw plenty of playing time in '24.

    PORTAL NEEDS
    Debatable that there are any but even if we're just trying to supplement and enhance, the need is pretty limited for this point in the offseason. Adding an interior DL option would be best given the preference for heavy rotation and regular usage of jumbo fronts. That would reduce the snap count for Payne and keeps a guy like Iwunnah from being relied on. The other need on paper would seem to be adding a starting caliber CB. This would probably bump Edmond out of the rotation and provide insurance on Hill. Given how well things have gone with Wallace and Hall fitting into the defenses, it's hard not to want to see something like this again, but adding anyone increases the risk of internal departures so hopefully the coaches are managing this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Check #4 off the list. Tre Williams is a nice get and should be a strong rotation piece. I just hope it's not telling us anything about Benny coming back and it's more an expectation that Williams/Payne/Benny/Pierce will all be optimized if they are rotating.

      Delete
  7. "Bowl games don't matter anymore"

    It's debatable that a mid-tier bowl game like this Hall-of-Fame/Outback/Reliaquest Bowl ever did.

    It was always an exhibition mostly for fun, a trip designed to reward the team and an opportunity to support the local economy (driven by local chamber of commerce who want the tourist foot traffic, hotel bookings, etc.). Yes it is true that NFL (and now Portal) opt outs have an made the pointlessness of it more overt, but it was never a season-defining thing. It's good harmless fun to have a feel good exhibition game that keeps fans of the winning side happy (er than they should be) for the long offseason. That's perfectly fine!

    ReplyDelete
  8. I agree with pretty much all of Thunder's comments on the offense.

    I actually though Warren played his best game of the season. Of course the coaches didn't ask him to do very much, but the back shoulder TD throw to Moore was spot on. The only obvious mistake I saw was holding onto the ball way too long on the play he got hurt on. I don't expect to see Warren take anymore meaningful snaps in a winged helmet, so it's too bad he got hurt when he did. Throw it away Davis!

    Orji's INT was U G L Y! All the best to the young man wherever he ends up.

    I'd feel perfectly fine with Jordan Marshall as the primary RB next year. Hall's performance wasn't a shocker but it did validate why the coaches think Haynes will bring value.

    Increment expectations up for Frederick Moore. I'm giving our WR room a pass on 2024 because of the incompetent QB play but I expect improvement anyway. Moore didn't do anything amazing but he looked like a capable option.

    TE room still looks well below Harbaugh standards, even with improvement expected for Kelin, Hansen, and Marshall. If Bredeson is gone...they could really use an impact portal addition. Presumably Hansen will improve his blocking and Klein is OK, but Michigan is used to having NFL-level play at the position and it simply was not there this year outside of Loveland (who spent a lot of his time when healthy filling the void at WR).

    OL - #1 offseason need is here. I do agree with Thunder that this was probably a good preview for next season. In the end it was good that Hinton opted out to open things up for Sprague. Still, you don't want to at least bring in some competition for Sprague and Link at OT and you still need someone to replace Priebe. Probably the most disappointing thing from the bowl game was that Crippen and El Hadi scored so poorly to PFF.

    What I wouldn't do to get another duo like Oluwatimi/Hinton or Nugent /Henderson....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That U G L Y interception was ... predictive ... a year ago
      #iwasright

      Delete
    2. #obsessed
      #rentfree
      #youwerewrong

      Delete
    3. @jelly

      I must have missed where you predicted Orji at QB while beating USC, Minnesota, and Alabama with a grand total of 2 INTs on the season. Please send me the #link #quote. What's that? Empty handed again? Did you also have Orji down for the lowest INT percentage on the team and best TD/INT ratio on the team? Going to say you did not.

      Orji was bad. So was Warren and (worst of all of them) Tuttle. But you wanted to talk about just one guy and insist that pass attempts (where Denegal had the same number as our primary starter) was a big tell. Spoiler: it wasn't! Warren got a lot more attempts than Denegal despite pass attempts being the same. Orji got a lot more than Denegal despite 5 fewer. 5 attempts vs 5 attempts vs 0 attempts. It meant literally nothing - no correlation - no predictive utility -- they all sucked! Warren won the job then got benched for Orji then tried to give the OSU game away then got hurt taking a dumb sack to hand it back to Orji. Orji couldn't pass. Warren couldn't run OR pass. They all sucked. But you wanted to harp about one guy.

      And then you make excuses for them -- about WRs being bad. when Loveland, Morgan, and Morris are available targets. Check back in a year and you'll see that the blame falls on the QBs, collectively and individually, being garbage. WRs weren't great but weren't terrible either. In 2025 -- Loveland will be in the NFL catching a ton of passes. Morgan will be making plays (again) for Michigan. Morris will be putting up stats on the big ten leader-board at Indiana (outproducing McCully most likely despite "obvious upgrade", according to you, based on stats lol). It's the QBs s_up_d.

      That's why we should have hit the portal for a QB in 2024. Like I told you!

      Orji was the only vague hope (youth + development + opportunity + coaches saying nice things) but it didn't work. He didn't have it. When he failed to beat out the walk-on in camp it was game over. Change the offense (stop passing and focus on the run) or die trying. They mostly died trying, until the end of the year when what I told you after USC (the best bet is stop throwing) became reality. You argued. We NEED to pass you said. We can't have USC and Minn performances in the pass game. Unacceptable. Check the tape -- 4 biggest wins of the year (OSU, USC, Bama, Minn) all had less than 100 yards passing. And MSU -- we had as many Orji TDs as Warren TDs.

      Only thing you were right about was agreeing with me that Michigan should have hit the portal for a QB in the spring. That's IT. Should have agreed with me on a whole lot more. But some people just want to argue.

      Hold em all up!

      Delete
    4. LMAO, you came back for more?!? 6½hours ... livin in your head Lank!

      I EVEN GOT THE SCORE RIGHT!!!
      je93 on 21 Sep at 1137AM
      https://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2024/09/preview-michigan-vs-usc.html?m=1

      Not exact, but still the right call:
      je93 on 27 Sep at 9:18PM
      https://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2024/09/preview-michigan-vs-minnesota.html?m=1

      *no Bowl Game preview this year on TTB, but my ESPN CFB pickem had MICHIGAN winning:
      https://fantasy.espn.com/games/college-football-bowl-mania-2024/picks?id=ec681d50-b5e1-11ef-8787-d10ed00ce0f0


      *in just under a year I have Lank go from arguing a prediction of 4 or more losses as "loser thinking" to openly calling for Indiana Hoosiers to "outperform" Michigan Wolverines ... THAT is #obsessed and #rentfree

      hahahahahaha
      #links
      #lankfailsagain
      #iwasright


      Delete
    5. LOL what does that have to do with Orji or Michigan QBs or Michigan WRs?

      Classic deflection by jellly talking about a bunch of offtopic things nobody cares about. Like your fantasy football performance LOLOL. Save it for the suburban Sacramento rec bro.

      You said a Hoosier outperformed a Wolverine and now you're mad I predicted the same. LOLOL. Every accusation...

      Delete
    6. SUMMARY:

      Lank: y0u nEvEr sAiD oRji w0ulD beAt sC, mInn or bAmA ... #liNkS

      me: here you go

      Lank: wHat d0eS tHaT hAvE to do wItH aNyThInG

      LMAO, can't make it up ... too easy






      *Brian on MGoRadio: the walk-on QB is injured halfway through, and the guy everyone KNOWS WON'T THROW comes in ... ah yes, predictive

      Brian, when asked about the low point of the season: Orji's turfed pass v Fresno! Yeah, predictive

      They all concede to falling for off-season hype, because we're fans. But the QB situation was a known disaster. Predictive!
      We ALL knew we needed better at QB, and listed it as the #1 portal need; even Lank knew ... he just wanted to argue about WHY ... but it was predictive (for those familiar with the game)


      Also, they all agree that Jordan Marshall matters!

      Delete
    7. @jelllllly Yes you were told we need a better portal QB. You thought 5 vs 5 vs 0 mattered but it didn't tell you anything. You thought one was a red flag but not the other. You were wrong. All 3 were bad. Orji wasn't an outlier though, he was often our best option. It predicted nothing. You were wrong. The end.

      All RBs matter! Until they are unavailable and then they don't. Got it.

      Delete
    8. Dodging that I destroyed your 'challenge' ... another Dub for je93

      My post about 4 or more losses included Denegal ... and I have been every bit as hard on Davis Warren as Orji, but only one offends you ...

      Orji was better than Davis Warren as a THREAT to run ... that's it. He sucked as a passer at levels we have not seen in modern MICHIGAN football history. Warren had several 'dimes' that made the highlight reels ... Orji had occasional gimmick runs - just like last year ... it was predictive

      #iwasright

      Delete
    9. Passer ratings for Orji and Tuttle this year were both horrendous. Warren's was not much better.

      Delete
    10. Hahahaha, maybe this will drop to the second page soon ... but not before February, so let's go:

      Did I predict those wins, despite Orji starting or playing? YES, with receipts ... I even got the scores right! Even a year ago, I said Orji/Denegal would lead to 4 or more losses; you called that "loser thinking" ... Big L for Lank, who now wants to talk about predicting INT ratio. Did anyone even mention INT ratio? I don't think we ever talked about it ... but Orji's threw MORE picks per attempt than Tuttle's ... what would have happened if the coaches trusted him to pass more? Who predicted THAT would be a problem?
      #iwasright

      Passer ratings? Did we ever have predictions or even a discussion on passer ratings? OR ... is Lank makin sh:t up again? I'll entertain it: Davis, 114.7; Tuttle, 11o; Orji, 92.5 (LOL) ... that's King Poop on Turd Island
      https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/130
      #stats
      #receipts

      Pass Attempts? Okay, since that indicates TRUST: Warren, 2o9; Tuttle, 5o (in 1½ games, LOL) and Orji, 47 (with as many INTs as Tuttle LOL) ... ever notice that when you introduce new points they're early dismantled with data? Time to recycle old narratives! Or a username change!
      #n0tbUiLtf0rtHiS

      Funny that you're sooo desperate that you're comparing Orji's historically terrible SEASON with individual games ... How about apples-to-apples: JOK in 2o17: more than 3x pass attempts, 4x the pass yards (2x the avg), a long of 43yds v a long of 16, and a passer rating of 1o2. Yeah, terrible ... but not as bad as Orji. Even if we bring up JOK, Orji is still King Poop on Turd Island. Time for feelings? Maybe a username change?
      https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/545550/john-okorn
      https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4685495/alex-orji
      #data
      #jeDub




      Delete
    11. LankUseingAndAbusingJanuary 9, 2025 at 12:48 PM

      @jelllllllly


      This was a fun one.

      " I said Orji/Denegal would lead to 4 or more losses; you called that "loser thinking"

      Funfact: Orji and Denegal did NOT lead to 4 losses.

      Orji was 2-0 in games where he was the primary QB. Denegal didn't play at all (despite his 5 extremely meaningful LOL attempts in 2023)

      You were wrong.
      You do think like a loser.
      Like telling NFL starter Joe Milton to avoid a challenge and go to D3. But I digress...

      Funfact: Orji had fewer turnovers per snap than either Tuttle or Warren.
      Both those guys lost games for Michigan with their turnovers, and Warren tried to lose OSU too. Defense bailed us out. Orji had a couple scary ones too and got bailed out too, but his were less frequent than either Tuttle or Warren. Facts -- not your friend.

      Now you're using your own logic (pass attempts = trust) to argue with air and claim a dub (over air). Typical jelllly behavior, but this fantasy is even funnier than usual.

      And on passer rating (which IS a measure of pure passing ability but not QB play) you try to reframe from "at levels we have not seen in modern MICHIGAN football history" to talk about entire careers. That helps your case in the examples of JOK and of course it's a dodge and deflection as you omit the other examples cited.

      https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/stats/_/id/194464/nick-sheridan
      https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/511688/russell-bellomy

      Fun fact -- Sheridan started MORE games at Michigan than Orji. Russell Bellomy only had a prominent role once as an injury replacement. But hey, those guys exist and played prominent roles in Michigan football history. And they were clearly inferior QBs AND inferior passers. Per the stats, and common sense to anyone not lying and exaggerating to infectually try to call themselves "right" on a daily basis.

      " "at levels we have not seen in modern MICHIGAN football history""
      <---------- apparently jelly thinks this "modern" period started sometime between 2012 and 2018

      Anyway, even when you try to put up fake restrictions like careers-not-games so you can win.... you still end up losing.

      #Destroyed
      #HoldItUp
      #notbuiltforthis

      Delete
    12. You think it's fun to lie & dodge? I can tell!


      I predicted the wins against SC, Minnesota & Bama, "abusing" your little challenge
      #iwasright

      I predicted 4 or more losses. Orji did start & play a significant role ... and we had more than 4 losses
      #iwasright

      *loser thinking is openly cheering for Indiana on this board
      #hoosierboy

      "Orji's threw MORE picks per attempt than Tuttle" ... coaches didn't trust him to throw & ALMOST eliminating his turnovers ... Edwards, Semaj & Bell all had as many attempts in the second half of the season. When FORCED into a pass, Moore gave him three opportunities: two behind the LoS, and the U G L Y turnover. Orji's passing career at MICHIGAN was shut DOWN immediately after
      Nothing you BS about changes these facts
      #iwasright

      Orji's passer rating this SEASON was the absolute worst in a bad QB room. YOU brought up JOK, but Orji on the SEASON was worse JOK during his SEASON ...
      #iwasright

      Now you want to bring up Russell Bellomy, who never started a single game? He was a backup. And, as a backup, was trusted to pass more than Orji when he came in as a backup, and passed for more yards than Orji ever did, as a backup
      https://mgoblue.com/sports/football/roster/russell-bellomy/1547

      Nick Sheridan too? Okay, he too was trusted to pass MUCH more than Orji, produced more pass yards w/a higher average, and in 2oo9 even had a higher passer rating on the SEASON
      https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/stats/_/id/194464/nick-sheridan

      I was right about Milton. His draft profile read just like the criticism here, despite SIX years in college, because he spent FOUR on the bench ... I was so right, you first doubted he'd be drafted, then that he'd make the roster .. I was optimistic on both, because I understand the value of his singular trait
      #iwasright

      Pass attempts do equal trust. What else explains so few passing attempts? Maybe ... GIMMICK?
      #iwasright

      No one said CAREERS ... Why would we? Orji was only trusted - though barely - during one SEASON. You're lying again, but I got you
      #n0tbUiLtf0rtHiS


      I predicted a name change, but not the ignorance: changing your username and misspelling it ... Rent free!
      #jeDub

      Delete
    13. "Changing my user name" to troll JellllllllyJanuary 10, 2025 at 12:42 PM

      "*loser thinking is openly cheering for Indiana on this board"

      It sure is! You THINK I'm doing that. I'm not. It's your delusional fantasy.

      Completely typical.

      You were wrong about Milton.
      You were wrong about Orji. Just above on " not seen in modern MICHIGAN football history" you were wrong. You were obliterated by the facts. But then you duck dodge and reframe.....and even then you lose.

      Completely typical.

      No one said careers? No one said seasons either? But whether you look at games at Michigan, seasons at Michigan, or careers at Michigan -- you are wrong in every case.

      Completely typical.

      Orji's passer rating this year was 93, as I noted above.
      Sheridan's in 2008 was 81.
      These facts live in Michigan football history. Even if they are inconvenient to your lies.


      "Pass attempts do equal trust. What else explains so few passing attempts?"
      Being better off running the ball then passing. Duh.
      https://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore/_/gameId/401520394
      Was JJ not trusted to pass or nah? Nah is the answer. And you know it.

      Destroyed.

      And even if that wasn't an easy example to prove you wrong there is the fact that 5 attempts vs 0 attempts is completely inconsequential. But you never argued that Warren was a gimmick or Denegal was a gimmick it was only Orji.

      ...The guy who lost 0 of 5 games this year.
      Again, you were wrong. You said we need to pass more. We didn't.

      Completely typical.

      You are wrong about most things and when you aren't you just lie to yourself. Of course it doesn't actually work but post through it lil fella. You know who you are. We all do.

      -Lank

      Delete
    14. Lank handing out L'sJanuary 10, 2025 at 12:43 PM

      Might have to double post here. We'll see what happens. Let's get Jellllllly counting today. Check the timestamps too. #obsessed #L's

      Delete
    15. Good fitting name ... not only am I the one avoiding name calling & insults, but I've got you doing it for me
      #troll
      #selfown

      "y0uRe wRoNg bEcAuSe I sAy s0"
      #nolinks
      #noquotes
      #exposed


      I've also forced you to abandon your takes on JOK & Bellamy, because the stats don't lie ... might as well give up on Sheridan too: as I shared Thursday, his 2oo9 year was better ... Sheridan was statistically a more trusted and superior passer than Orji


      If "better off running the ball than passing" is remotely accurate, why didn't the coaches do the same with Warren? Why did Tuttle get more pass attempts in a game and a half than Orji did in a SEASON? One of these QBs was used differently, against the same Defenss, with the same resources on offense
      #gimmick
      #iamrightagain
      #destroyed



      Hurry up and get to page 2!
      #resolution

      Delete
    16. You got proven wrong on Milton many times for years. He didn't need to go to D3 to succeed at all. B10 to SEC to the NFL. #caseclosed. The evidence keeps rolling in anyway. So I get to bring it up and LOLOLOL facts vs Jelly.


      My JOK and Bellamy takes are still right. When you look at games, like I said. Another fantasy from Jelly who wants to quibble and parse and move the goalposts so he can pretend to get JEDUB (imaginary, everytime) but even there jellly still FAILED on Sheridan. Ooops! You want it sooooooooooooo bad jelllly, but you just aren't built for it. It's funny.


      ====================================

      "If "better off running the ball than passing" is remotely accurate, why didn't the coaches do the same with Warren"

      Hahahahaha. Where to start with this one. Well first off -- they did! Warren's first 2 starts averaged 29 pass attempts a game. His last 2 had 16 and 12. Even if you hypothetically double the 11 first half vs Bama to 22 the average would be 19. Ten less in late season vs early season. They learned! And the results reflected the improvement -- Michigan won when it passed less.

      "Why did Tuttle get more pass attempts in a game and a half than Orji did in a SEASON? "
      What a gotcha LOL! The 2 worst (most disappointing and embarrassing) losses of the season came with Tuttle throwing a lot against Illinois and Washington. Tuttle throwing a lot = turnovers.

      The 3rd worst one was Warren throwing 32 times against Indiana (with a QBR of 23). Texas and Oregon also featured a lot of throwing but those are top 10 teams.

      These were mistakes. They were called out as such at the time. We knew by USC/Minn what the path to winning looked like.

      Michigan wanted to pass more and they tried to pass more. But the coaches, unlike Jelllllly didn't keep arguing stupidly that they HAD to pass a bunch to win ball games. If they had bought into the Jelllllly logic, Bama and OSU would have been losses too -- just like all those Tuttle/Warren pass heavy games were losses (except against cupcakes of course).

      The next time Michigan played top 10 teams (OSU and Alabama) they learned from their mistakes and won. Sherrone and company seem smart enough to admit when they are wrong and learn from their errors. Not every is built that way.


      HOLD IT UP

      Delete
    17. Two sentences AFTER case closed ... not even YOU fall for it ...
      I was right about Milton:
      ✅ Garbage
      ✅ Needed reps, lots of reps
      ✅ Wouldn't get them at MICHIGAN
      ✅ Would sit the bench unless FCS or G5
      ✅ Sat the bench
      ✅ Would get drafted because of the arm cannon
      #lankwaswrong
      #iwasright
      #jeDub


      "when you look at the games" Lank cherry picked
      #whiteflagaccepted
      #iwasright


      Both Warren (5x as many ) & Tuttle (in a game and a half) were trusted to pass more than Orji. Orji was only a gimmick. THAT is the point. Focus, and try to prove that wrong ...
      #dodge
      #iwasright

      *we agreed MICHIGAN needed to pass 14-2o times a game ... this explains why Orji never got another chance to start, and got the same attempts as our RB & WRs in the back half of the season ... even in YOUR worst scenario, Orji only met that bare minimum once ... Orji simply WAS NOT TRUSTED with passing the ball
      16 Sep http://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2024/09/michigan-28-arkansas-state-18.html
      #links
      #stats
      #history
      #peopledontforget
      #receipts
      #iwasright




      Delete
    18. Thunder is holding back your Ls. You should thank him Jelllly.

      Delete
    19. No, I'm holding back the childish comments, because Lank resorts to elementary school insults when people disagree with him.

      Delete
    20. It's fun

      Lank insults & namecalls, knowing a deletion is coming, to bury the history of me owning him
      #statsnotfeelings
      #resolution
      #page2

      Delete
    21. Holding back SOME of them.

      Anyway's Jellllly I destroyed your terrible Milton take item by item. But Thunder is protecting you from such "childish" things.

      Enjoy!

      Delete
    22. No you didn't
      #receipts
      #fantasy

      Delete

    23. ✅ Garbage?

      Nah, SEC starter, Orange Bowl MVP, Drafted, NFL Starter

      ✅ Needed reps, lots of reps

      Nah, see last bullet. Or check the resume, the honors, the production:
      https://utsports.com/sports/football/roster/joe-milton-iii/19026

      ✅ Wouldn't get them at MICHIGAN
      Well he's better than Cade (see 2022-2025) and beat out Cade (in 2020) before being hurt so this is just pure speculation on your part about what might have happened in 2021. Shrug. Another fantasy.

      ✅ Would sit the bench unless FCS or G5

      Wrong again. Started in 2021, 2022, 2023, and then again in the NFL in the 2024-25 season.

      ✅ Sat the bench

      Wrong again. https://utsports.com/sports/football/roster/joe-milton-iii/19026

      ✅ Would get drafted because of the arm cannon

      Despite not going to D3? LOL. You made this prediction AFTER being wrong about everything you said about Joe Milton for 5 years. LOL. Claim that dub lil fella and enjoy your fantasy.

      #page2wheneverIwant
      #u sore lil guy?

      Delete
    24. ✅ Garbage --> that is the word YOU used, finally conceding a years old exchange

      ✅ Needed lots of reps --> draft profiles read like my analysis

      ✅ Wouldn't get them at MICHIGAN --> was litrally benched for Cade, then JJ arrived

      ✅ Sat the bench for all, most or some of each of his first FIVE years in college

      ✅ Drafted, with the highest and most praise for ... the arm cannon


      Took two tries to write this post, and that's all you got?
      #nowIhaveLankCopyingJEonPage3
      #tooeasy
      #iwasright

      Delete