Friday, August 19, 2011

2011 Countdown: #12 Carvin Johnson

Carvin Johnson
Name: Carvin Johnson
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 200 lbs.
High school: Rummel High School in Metairie, LA
Position: Strong safety
Class: Sophomore
Jersey number: #13
Last year: I ranked Johnson #67 and said he would redshirt.  He started 3 games at outside linebacker and had 18 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 pass breakup.

Johnson's role on the 2010 team was a little bit mysterious to me.  As a true freshman, he came in and immediately started at a position that he hadn't played in high school; as a 195-pounder he was playing outside linebacker on a team that had more physically ready players at the position, such as redshirt freshman Thomas Gordon (23 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 2 sacks).  Meanwhile, the team was experimenting with tiny freshmen like Courtney Avery and Terrence Talbott at safety.  Johnson's starting role was somewhat short-lived, however, once he hurt his shoulder in the opener against Connecticut and missed the next three games.  He returned and played sporadically for the rest of the season, most notably notching 6 tackles against Mississippi State on New Year's Day, but his debut season was largely forgettable for fans.

Then came the spring.  By the time April rolled around, Johnson was earning rave reviews from practice observers and after the spring game.  He turned a couple bad throws in the spring game and turned them into excellent interceptions and generally looked like the ballhawking safety that Michigan has been lacking for the last several years.  He even had decent enough speed to hunt down Denard Robinson on a long run, something we haven't been able to say for a Michigan safety in a while.  With Marvin Robinson struggling to stick with assignments, Josh Furman looking uncomfortable in open space, and Jordan Kovacs somewhat limited athletically, Johnson has set himself apart as a near lock to start in the defensive backfield and could perhaps be an All-Big Ten performer by the time he graduates.

Prediction: 55 tackles, 3 interceptions

Thursday, August 18, 2011

Countdown to Kickoff: Day 16

Al Borges Press Conference: August 16, 2011

2011 Countdown: #13 Jordan Kovacs

Jordan Kovacs has crazy eyes
Name: Jordan Kovacs
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 197 lbs.
High school: Clay High School in Curtice, OH
Position: Strong safety
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #32
Last year: I ranked Kovacs #21 and said he would start at bandit and make 70 tackles.  He had 116 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 pass breakup.

Some might look at Kovacs' 116 tackles in 2010 and think "Wow, he's really good."  Others might say, "Wow, the defensive front seven must have sucked for a safety to make that many tackles."  The truthfulness of those statements is "sort of" and "yep."  Michigan's defense was atrocious last season, and it all started with the front seven.  Between linemen who couldn't get any penetration, poor linebacker play, youthfulness, and a shoddy defensive philosophy, Kovacs found himself cleaning up the mess more often than anyone wanted (except opposing offensive coordinators).  He had 10+ tackles in six games last season, including a 17-tackle effort in the 37-7 loss (since wiped from OSU history) to the Buckeyes.  Unlike what we're used to seeing at Michigan from guys like Charles Woodson, Brandon Graham, Shawn Crable, and others, Kovacs' most amazing plays don't stem from superior athleticism.  Rather than a burst of speed or a crushingly hard hit, there's Kovacs instantly reading a play action pass and sticking to his TE coverage.  There's Kovacs reading a deep pass from an Indiana quarterback and jumping in the way to knock it down.  There's Kovacs watching the quarterback's eyes and jumping in front of a pass from the Ohio State quarterback before the end of the half.

We all love Kovacs for those plays and his 116 tackles, despite not being very big or very fast.  And yet . . . we yearn for more.  I couldn't help but lament his lack of speed when he intercepted OSU quarterback Terrelle Pryor at the end of the half and returned it only 41 yards when it looked as if most defensive backs with decent speed could have taken it to the house.  If that happened, the nameless and speedy defensive back could have made it a 24-14 game going into the half, with Michigan down only 10 and momentum on their side.  Unfortunately, the return fizzled out and the Wolverines suffered the embarrassing, 30-point defeat.

And that's the difference between Jordan Kovacs and the Ideal Strong Safety.  It's not that a good strong safety can typically win a game all by himself.  It's not that Kovacs is a bad player.  After all, he was a Freshman All-American in 2009 and an All-Big Ten Honorable Mention in 2010.  It's just that he lacks that extra burst or change of direction that would make us say, "Holy s***" instead of "Can we amputate his head and put it on Justin Turner's body?"

Going into the 2011 season, Kovacs might face a battle from young safeties Marvin Robinson and Josh Furman for the chance to start in the defensive backfield.  Kovacs has experience and intelligence on his side, but Robinson has the hitting ability (and a little bit of speed) and Furman has the speed to be difference makers back there.  It's hard to imagine a redshirt junior with two years of starting (and 191 tackles) under his belt getting benched in favor of a sophomore or redshirt freshman who has, comparatively, accomplished approximately nothing.  But at some point, Michigan has to get back to creating oohs and aahs out of its defensive players, and not just what-ifs.

Prediction: Starting safety; 75 tackles

Wednesday, August 17, 2011