Review of 2014 TTB Ratings

 

Ben Gedeon (image via MGoBlue)

Keep in mind that the ratings (fully explained here) are intended to project how players will fare at Michigan and, to a certain extent, in the NFL Draft. I do not take into account how players will do once they get to the NFL or how they will pan out if they transfer to other programs. I will give myself a grade of 1-5 like a 5-point grading scale (5 is best, 1 is worst) for each player; I reserve the right to give myself an incomplete if the guy never even got a chance to get on the field. I’ll work down the list from highest to lowest with a brief career recap for each player:

100

100: Jabrill Peppers - S - Paramus (NJ) Catholic
Peppers was a jack-of-all-trades at Michigan, playing running back, slot receiver, quarterback, linebacker, cornerback, safety, kickoff returner, and punt returner at various times. He ran for 239 yards and 5 touchdowns; caught 10 passes for 82 yards; averaged 26.8 yards on kickoff returns; averaged 13.1 yards on punt returns with 1 touchdown; and made 123 tackles, 21 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble, and 10 pass breakups. He was a 1st round pick (#25 overall) in the 2017 NFL Draft, taken by the Giants.
Prediction accuracy: 5. Peppers was a Heisman finalist and a 1st rounder.

90-99

93: Drake Harris - WR - Grand Rapids (MI) Christian
Harris had a bunch of injury issues that at least factored into disappointing production. After redshirting as a freshman, he made just 9 catches for 60 yards and 0 touchdowns in a Michigan uniform, even switching to corner at one point just to try to see the field. He played his final season at Western Michigan (27 catches, 255 yards, 1 TD)
Prediction accuracy: 1. It's hard to feel too bad about this one, considering hamstring issues caused him to miss two full seasons (his senior year of high school and freshman year of college), but it's still a miss.

Hit the jump for more.

80-89

88: Bryan Mone - DT - Salt Lake City (UT) Highland
Mone was not the force that I expected him to be, and I always thought he got too heavy and slow-footed to reach his potential (he was eventually listed at 325 in college but the NFL now has him at 366 lbs.). Overall, he made 38 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, and 2 fumble recoveries during his career. He went undrafted in 2019, though he has played in 28 games over the past three seasons for the Seahawks.
Prediction accuracy: 4. He probably should have been ranked in the 70's somewhere, since he was a solid college starter and borderline draft-worthy player.

87: Mason Cole - OG - Tarpon Springs (FL) East Lake
Cole was the first true freshman at Michigan to start a season opener on the offensive line. He started all four seasons, including at left tackle and center. He became a 3rd round pick (#97 overall) of the Cardinals and has since started 38 games for the Cardinals and Vikings.
Prediction accuracy: 5. Cole started as a freshman and had a very good career at Michigan. He was never truly dominant but was very consistent.

85: Michael Ferns - LB - St. Clairsville (OH) St. Clairsville
Ferns was one of the biggest anomalies in my time covering Michigan. He was a leader of the recruiting class, delivering t-shirts to every player who committed to the class. Then he spent one year at Michigan, redshirted, transferred to West Virginia, switched to fullback, and then quit the sport.
Prediction accuracy: 1. Whoops.

83: Freddy Canteen - WR - Elkton (MD) Eastern Christian Academy
Canteen looked like a star in the spring game as a freshman and then completely dropped off. He caught 6 passes for 22 yards and 1 touchdown over his two years at Michigan before transferring to Notre Dame, where he caught 1 pass for 7 yards in 2017. Injuries were a problem, but they were not the whole problem.
Prediction accuracy: 1. Canteen did next to nothing in a Michigan uniform rather than playing like a solid starter.

81: Maurice Ways, Jr. - WR - Detroit (MI) Country Day
Ways redshirted in 2014 before embarking on a so-so career as a backup, making 8 catches for 71 yards in a Michigan uniform. He then transferred to Cal for the 2018 season and caught 34 passes for 383 yards and 1 touchdown. That performance at Cal doesn't matter for this exercise, but he turned out to be the most productive college receiver in Michigan's class.
Prediction accuracy: 2. Ways was a solid blocker but was not reliable as a receiver for the Wolverines.

79: Chase Winovich - LB - Clairton (PA) Thomas Jefferson
Winovich redshirted at linebacker, dabbled a little bit at tight end, and then returned to defense for his final three years on campus. That included two years as a First Team All-Big Ten defensive end. He made 185 tackles, 44.5 tackles for loss, 18 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and 3 fumble recoveries. He turned into a 3rd round pick (#77 overall) of the Patriots in 2019 and has made 85 tackles, 11 sacks, and 1 interception in three seasons. He is now a Cleveland Brown.
Prediction accuracy: 3. I thought Winovich would be pretty good, but not that good.

77: Wilton Speight - QB - Richmond (VA) Benedictine
Speight redshirted as a freshman, backed up Jake Rudock in 2015, and then spent most of the next two seasons as Michigan's starting quarterback. He completed 257/437 passes (58.8%) for 3,192 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions before breaking his back against Purdue in 2017. He transferred to UCLA for 2018, completing 60.6% of his throws for 1,527 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He signed with the 49ers as an undrafted free agent but did not make the team.
Prediction accuracy: 5. Speight did indeed turn into a solid starter, winning 10 games during his only full season as a starter.

75: Ian Bunting - TE - Hinsdale (IL) Central
Bunting was mostly a wide receiver in high school, so he was going to be a bit of a project as a tight end. He redshirted in 2014 and then was a backup for most of the next three seasons, though he did start seven games in 2016. He caught 11 passes for 124 yards in a Michigan uniform. He transferred to Cal for 2018, catching 18 passes for 195 yards. He went undrafted in 2019 but has spent time with various teams, most recently the Dallas Cowboys, playing in one game altogether.
Prediction accuracy: 4. Bunting was in a bit of a weird situation, seeming to be in line to succeed Jake Butt as Michigan's starting tight end . . . and then reverting to a backup role. He probably should have slotted somewhere in the 60's.

81: Da'Mario Jones - WR - Westland (MI) John Glenn
Jones made 2 catches in his career. Two. That was not a good career.
Prediction accuracy: 1. Oopsie.

70-79

79: Henry Poggi - DT - Baltimore (MD) Gilman
Poggi switched to fullback/tight end. He caught 9 career passes and ran the ball 2 times, scoring 1 touchdown (against his home-state Terrapins). He was picked up by the Patriots as an undrafted free agent for a short time.
Prediction accuracy: 4. I would say Poggi was an average starter at fullback, so I was 10 points off or so.

78: Maurice Hurst, Jr. - DT - Westwood (MA) Xaverian Brothers
I bumped Hurst up from my initial grade of 73, but that wasn't even enough. Hurst turned into a potential first rounder, and through three NFL seasons, he actually has more sacks than any of the 2018 first rounders, even though Hurst went in the fifth. He made 32 tackles for loss and 13.5 sacks at Michigan.
Prediction accuracy: 3. In retrospect, Hurst should have graded out in the 90s. He's one of the best few defensive linemen I've seen in my time watching Michigan football.

77: Csont’e York – WR – Harper Woods (MI) Chandler Park Academy
York was booted out of Michigan before he ever had a chance to play. That's what happens when you punch a dude in the face outside of Scorekeeper's.
Prediction accuracy: Incomplete. York obviously didn't get a chance to show his stuff either way, but he probably wasn't going to live up to this ranking.

76: Taco Charlton – DE – Pickerington (OH) Central
I was a little concerned about Charlton outgrowing the weakside end position because his technique might not have stood up to playing on the strong side, but he turned into a 1st round pick after making 28 tackles for loss and 18 sacks.
Prediction accuracy: 3. This is another guy who should have been ranked in the 90s, like Hurst. He really took off once Jim Harbaugh was hired.

75: Logan Tuley-Tillman – OT – Peoria (IL) Manual
This was a very interesting cycle all around. I've never received more blowback for my "hot takes" than I did during this cycle, and Tuley-Tillman was one of them. Ranked as the #169 overall prospect, I had big questions about his technique. After getting booted from Michigan for some illegal activity, he then bounced around to Washington State and UTEP, where he finished out as a starter.
Prediction accuracy: 3. Unlike York (see above), Tuley-Tillman did actually have a chance to play but only appeared in a couple games. He probably could have been an okay player at Michigan if he continued, but his performance post-Michigan suggests his upside was limited.

74: Mike McCray II – LB – Trotwood (OH) Trotwood-Madison
McCray ended up as a team captain and was named Honorable Mention All-Big Ten during his final two years. He took a lot of guff for being unable to cover running backs on wheel routes, but the guy made 161 tackles, 31 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks, and 2 interceptions during a career that looked like it might end early due to a nagging shoulder injury.
Prediction accuracy: 4. Maybe you could push him into the 80s in my rankings, but despite some nice sack numbers and such, the All-Big Ten voters never thought a ton of him and the NFL didn't show much interest.

73: Channing Stribling – CB – Matthews (NC) Butler
I view Stribling somewhat in the same way I view McCray. He was a good player but largely a product of the system and people around him. He finished his career with 68 tackles and 6 interceptions, and he allowed a very low completion percentage during his senior year. But he never put on weight (listed at 6'2", 175 lbs. even as a senior), his speed was so-so, and the NFL didn't show much interest. He has played in the AAF, XFL, and USFL since.
Prediction accuracy: 4. This is another guy whom I probably could have ranked in the low 80s.

71: David Dawson – OG – Detroit (MI) Cass Tech
Much like Tuley-Tillman (see above), I took a lot of flak for my take on Dawson. As a local product, I thought he might stick it out for five years and maybe become a starter in year four or five. Ultimately, he played a backup role in 16 career games before bouncing around to a couple other places during his final "year" of eligibility.
Prediction accuracy: 3. Based on how his career played out, he probably should have been ranked in the 50s as a good backup.

60-69

69: Delano Hill - S - Detroit (MI) Cass Tech
Hill is still a real head-scratcher for me. I somewhat whiffed on my evaluation of him, as he became a 26-game starter, finishing his career with 119 tackles and 3 interceptions; he was named Second Team All-Big Ten as a senior. The Seahawks took him in the 3rd round, and he made 64 tackles for them in four seasons. He put up a good 40 time at the NFL Combine (4.47), but his other testing numbers were so-so.
Prediction accuracy: 4. Looking at the rating system, I see Hill as a guy who should have been rated in the 70s. He was never a standout in college, the 3rd round pick was a surprise even at the time, and his 64 tackles in four seasons isn't a superb number to make me think I was just way off. I try to own it when I'm wrong (see: Derrick Green), but his career just seems a little fluke-y.

65: Wyatt Shallman – RB – Novi (MI) Catholic Central
This is the third guy that I took a lot of criticism for, along with Dawson and Tuley-Tillman. People kept insisting he was going to play running back, and I was very confused. He ran the ball 4 times for 14 yards during his career before eventually finishing up his career in the MAC playing defense. If he would have accepted playing defense earlier in his career, he might have been able to do something.
Prediction accuracy: 3. I ranked him pretty low, and I probably should have ranked him in the 40s.

63: Ross Douglas – CB – Avon (OH) Avon
Douglas was recruited as a slot corner, couldn't get on the field, moved to running back, ran 10 times for 18 yards, and eventually lined up as a starting hybrid linebacker/safety . . . at Rutgers.
Prediction accuracy: 3. He too probably should have been ranked in the 40s.

63: DeVeon Smith – RB – Warren (OH) Howland
Here's another tough one for me, and I assume this will probably spur an argument in the comment section. Smith beat out the highly touted Derrick Green (so yes, I was wrong) and ran for 2,235 yards and 22 touchdowns during his career. He also produced one of the greatest highlight-reel runs at Michigan when he emerged out of a pile against BYU and then spun out of a tackle around the 10-yard line on his way to a long touchdown run. Smith. My issue with him was always his lack of big-play ability, which is reportedly why he didn't get drafted (he refused to run the 40 at the Combine and then ran a 4.8 at his pro day). He started 26 games at Michigan and was named Honorable Mention All-Big Ten as a senior, so I undervalued him, but a short stint with the Dolphins and then some time in the AAF and XFL has not convinced me I was too far off. It just so happened that he was a pretty good pass protector and had the mentality of toughness that Jim Harbaugh really likes, which helped him lead a pack of uninspiring backs.
Prediction accuracy: 4. He seems like a guy who should also be in the 70s, like Delano Hill.

62: Reon Dawson – CB – Trotwood (OH) Trotwood-Madison
Dawson spent a few years on the team at Michigan and never played. Not only that, but he never reappeared anywhere, even at a lower level.
Prediction accuracy: 2. I should have ranked him in the 1-39 area, which very, very few scholarship guys should end up in.

60: Khalid Hill – TE – Detroit (MI) East English Village
Hill is a little bit of a head scratcher in the opposite direction than fellow Hill, Delano. First, I ranked Hill too low, because Jim Harbaugh took full advantage of his talents when he arrived. Hill converted to a quasi-fullback role, where he ran for 13 touchdowns, and he also caught 29 passes for 288 yards and 3 touchdowns. (Side note: I probably would have ranked him higher if Harbaugh had been the guy who recruited him, but I had less confidence in Brady Hoke developing a fullback/tight end guy. That's an example of where some of these rankings have a good-sized flaw.)
Prediction accuracy: 4. I think Hill should have been rated somewhere in the 70s, because he was a good player but at a position without a ton of value.

50-59

59: Dan Samuelson – OG – Plymouth (IN) Plymouth
Samuelson didn't really do anything at Michigan and eventually ended up at Eastern Michigan.
Prediction accuracy: 3. This went pretty much as expected.

58: Jaron Dukes – WR – Columbus (OH) Marion Franklin
Dukes spent a few years on the team and played in one game.
Prediction accuracy: 3. I feel pretty confident saying he also belonged in the 1-39 range.

INCOMPLETE

Scott Sypniewski – LS – Ottawa (IL)
I don't bother with long snappers.

CONCLUSIONS

5: Gedeon
4: Butt, Delano Hill, Khalid Hill, Lewis, McCray, Poggi, Smith, Stribling, Thomas
3: Charlton, David Dawson, Douglas, Dukes, Hurst, Samuelson, Shallman, Tuley-Tillman
2: Bosch, Reon Dawson, Kugler
1: Green, Jones, Morris
Inc.: Fox, Sypniewski, York

That's 74 points spread out among 24 guys, giving me an average grade of 3.1. That's probably not a bad average overall, but similar to last year, there are some blue-chip recruits (Green and Morris in this year's study) who just totally bomb. This was a painful class when it comes to offensive line recruiting, too, because not only did the high-end guys underperform, but so did the low-end guys. Sometimes you have certain guys (Derrick Green, for example) bomb but up steps someone like De'Veon Smith to have a decent career. There was no Graham Glasgow or Jon Runyan, Jr. on the line in this class, though. It was all bad, and the best guy (Kyle Bosch) was playing for WVU.