Nebraska sucks! Yes. Yes, they do. Nebraska is a 3-7 football team with an interim head coach, no defensive playmakers except outside linebacker Garrett Nelson, and no quality FBS quarterback right now. Nebraska's best play on Saturday was to call a pass and then let the quarterback scramble up the middle and hope he doesn't hurt himself. Unfortunately, that play ended one too many times with the quarterback hurting himself. Meanwhile, the two quarterbacks, Chubba Purdy and Logan Smothers, combined for 9 rushing attempts and 40 total yards. The team ended up with 146 total yards, or exactly 106 yards that didn't come on QB scrambles.
Hit the jump for more.
Michigan's passing game sucks! I mean . . . yes. Yes, it does. For the second straight week, 5-star quarterback J.J. McCarthy completed less than 50% of his passes. He was 8/17 for 129 yards and 2 touchdowns. One of those touchdowns was a fluke on which Ronnie Bell had to break several tackles, only to fumble the ball into the endzone from the 1-yard line, where it was recovered by Andrel Anthony for a score. Ronnie Bell is great after the catch, the best since at least Junior Hemingway. But when playing a team like Nebraska, it shouldn't take a superhuman effort and a freak fumble recovery to notch a second passing touchdown.
Should great receivers come to Michigan? The people are talking. The people should be saying no. I have been saying this since at least 2017, when Donovan Peoples-Jones signed with Michigan despite being a 5-star receiver. I said Peoples-Jones would be a better pro than a college player because Jim Harbaugh's offense limits receivers. Now that wasn't necessarily 100% correct so far, and here's why:
- Peoples-Jones in college (37 games): 103 catches, 1327 yards, 14 TDs
- Peoples-Jones in NFL (34 games): 78 catches, 1318 yards, 5 TDs
The catch numbers and touchdowns are down in the NFL, but the yardage is up and so are the yards per catch. Ronnie Bell (4 catches, 72 yards) was the only receiver with more than 1 catch against Nebraska, while Roman Wilson, Cornelius Johnson, and Tyler Morris were the only other wideouts with a single reception. This was a team missing three of its best receivers in tight end Erick All, tight end Luke Schoonmaker, and running back Donovan Edwards (who did not play much). One would think the staff would find a way to get Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson the ball more than one time, but nope. A.J. Henning had zero offensive touches, and Andrel Anthony only touched the ball when he recovered a fumble. The unfortunate truth is that 4-star and 5-star receivers should be going elsewhere. Michigan has a 5-star quarterback, and its leading receiver is tied for #9 in receptions in the conference among receivers. Cornelius Johnson is #33 among receivers in the Big Ten.
Should great running backs come to Michigan? The people have decided yes. If you're a good running back, you should be flocking to Michigan. You will get developed, and you will get a ton of opportunities. Blake Corum (28 carries, 162 yards, 1 TD) had another great game and is in the Heisman consideration. Donovan Edwards (2 carries, 13 yards) got banged up? No problem. True freshman C.J. Stokes ran 8 times for 68 yards. With some more body development, I think Stokes is going to be another very productive running back in a Michigan uniform. He had one fumble a few weeks ago that got him benched, but he makes decisive cuts, runs hard, and has some burst. With Edwards and Stokes looking like the primary backs for 2023 and 2024, Michigan should be in at least decent shape for the next couple seasons, but I would like to see Michigan bring in a sturdier back than Cole Cabana in 2023 or 2024 to pair with his skill set.
There's not much to say about the defense. Michigan was flying to the ball and tackling well. The only real issue was Michigan going so wild on the pass rush that they let the quick-ish quarterbacks scramble up the middle for some chunk gains. This has been a problem for Michigan the past couple years, but other teams can't live off of scrambling their quarterbacks. It's probably not a very serious "problem" if the starting quarterback runs a couple times, gets hurt, and then gets replaced by a worse quarterback. In fact, maybe that tactic should be used more often. Productive Nebraska running back Anthony Grant (11 carries, 22 yards) was held to his lowest output and rushing average of the season. Star receiver Trey Palmer had 5 catches for a pitiful 12 yards. The biggest concern coming out of that game is the health of leading sacker Mike Morris, who left the contest late with what looked like an ankle injury.
Don't overlook Illinois. Illinois started off 7-1 with a random loss to Indiana, but they have since lost two games to middling Michigan State and Purdue. Both games have been one-score contests, but they're losses nonetheless. The transitive property doesn't always work, but Michigan beat Michigan State 29-7 and a depleted Michigan State beat Illinois 23-15. The only thing that could get in the way of Michigan entering the Ohio State game 11-0 with a chance to win the Big Ten and/or make the playoff is if they put all their resources into OSU and forget that Illinois has a very good defense.
"The unfortunate truth is that 4-star and 5-star receivers should be going elsewhere. "
ReplyDeleteThat depends on their goal.
If the goal is to put up lots of stats in college, yes. By that logic they shouldn't be going to ANY power conference team. Why not go play with Ron Hefley or whatever other FCS program is putting up huge passing numbers. They can lead the league most easily there.
If the goal is make the NFL and win lots of games in college - you can do that at Michigan. DPJ and Nico Collins got drafted. Chesson and Darboh got drafted. They didn't have to put up huge stats because... that's not what the NFL drafts on. They draft on physical traits and they scout the head-to-head matchups against NFL-caliber competition.
It's not about putting up stats necessarily. Some people want to win, get a good education, and prepare themselves for the next level. They can do that at Michigan.
The issue with Cornelius Johnson is not the system.
DeleteQB is the position where I think this question of passing production is more relevant. Michigan has a terrible track record of getting QBs drafted since Lloyd Carr. It's been a parade of transfers for recruits. The one promising 5 star QB (Shea Patterson) saw his draft stock plummet in 2 seasons. Moreover, two recent in-state 5-star recruits are going elsewhere.
DeleteWhatever happens with JJ may have ramifications beyond 2023.
I hope that circumstances are such that JJ McCarthy transfers at the end of the season.
DeleteHaha. OK. You'll get your chance after 2023 Warren.
DeleteIt's really not even a serious discussion when you take things to the extreme.
DeleteYes, I'm absolutely suggesting that 5-star receivers should go play DIII ball so they can put up ridiculous stats and live forever with the knowledge that they caught 6 touchdowns in one game against Albion.
Nobody said you suggested that. But carrying your myopic rationale/logic forward would lead one there.
DeleteCertainly less extreme than what you said - that 4-star WRs shouldn't come to Michigan. Even though they do, and will, with successful outcomes for all.
A more legitimate choice, if you want that, for many Michigan caliber WR recruits who are interested in volume, is playing for second tier programs like Maryland or Miss State that are pass-stat friendly. Unfortunately that means you have almost no chance of winning a conference title let alone making a playoff.
DeleteNico Collins got drafted in the 3rd round despite being 23rd in the conference in receptions. Seems like neither the NFL nor recruits are so hung up on volume stats.
Nico didn't experience tremendous team success, but I'm sure he thought he would. And he would have been right if he came back in 2021.
I agree with Thunder, and have said so for just as long. Our QBs are tasked w/managing the game. Our WRs first job is to block. They are not schemed open, and don't always run the best routes. I cannot recall the last highlight catch by a UM receiver (Ronnie Bell's opening game sideline grab was OOB)
ReplyDeleteGreat QBs & WRs don't just want to get to the league, they want the glory & highlights. It's not there for them at Harbaugh's UM ...nor is the NIL. They can still get to the NFL without UM, but also trend for flashy plays _ stats, while pocketing extra cash
That said, what Harbaugh is doing works for every other position, and may beat ohio for a second consecutive time in 13 days ... that would be tough to argue against, while still being a valid point
*that Ronnie Bell catch I'm referring to was LAST year
DeleteI would say Nico and DPJ were not lacking for highlights. That's a different issue than stats.
DeleteI would also note that Michigan just landed two 4-star top 150 recruits at WR in the last class. So these assertions about what WRs want don't seem to be evidence-based.
NIL compensation is a big deal IMO. Stats are a factor but overstated here IMO.
DeleteRecruiting reports have spoken about both issues. NIL concerns come up consistently and are being blamed for a bump down in the ranking that Michigan is currently seeing. In contrast, the stats/production issue has been directly refuted by Michigan's top QB recruit Jadyn Davis.
Glory can be individual or team. Sounds like there might be different perspectives and priorities for some players than some fans.
DeleteA couple things seem clear.
1. Michigan is recruiting the WR position well.
2. Michigan is producing NFL WRs.
Under Harbaugh, NFL production is routine at TE, OL, and WR but not QB, RB. That seems to be the exact opposite of where fan attention/interest lies.
For example, it felt like a big deal that Harbaugh produced Michigan's first 1,000 yard RB in a while when Karan Higdon did it in 2018. But the NFL didn't care. They were more interested in his backup who ran for 400 some yards, and spent the next 2 seasons rushing for a grand total of 73 yards. He was drafted anyway and Higdon was not.
It would be interesting to hear Higdon's perspective on what he'd rather have:
-His college glory/production
-College team glory/winning a championship
-NFL talent
Given Higdon sat out the bowl game against Florida I don't think college production was his priority.
I can think of some highlight reel catches. Bell has had a couple, Sainristil had one against Nebraska last year, Cornelius Johnson had one against Indiana, etc. But your point still stands that they're not making the great catches that we got accustomed to from Peoples-Jones, Collins, etc.
DeleteI would say that McCarthy has not really put them in much of a position to make a ton of highlight reel catches. Highlight reel catches frequently come on balls thrown with great touch because of the time the WR has to adjust and the angle at which the ball comes down. It's tough to make highlight reel catches on a ball coming at 75 mph.
I've said before that McCarthy has Chad Henne disease, where everything comes out full speed. So he takes receivers off of his feet. Even some of his bubble screens are Denard Robinson-esque in that they don't give the WRs much of a chance to run after the catch.
The difference is that Henne threw deep balls with a tiny bit of touch, which allowed Braylon Edwards to go up and high point the ball. McCarthy has zero touch on his deep balls right now. Everything is coming out flat. But on the short/intermediate throws, he has too much velocity much of the time.
Didn't Denard produce more WR YAC than any QB in Michigan history?
DeleteCircling back to the concerns about Red Zone scoring from 2 weeks ago.
ReplyDeleteCan we all agree this was a proverbial nothingburger?
Not sure yet. JH himself discussed it with Jansen. McCarthy has talked about it, as have Oluwatimi (sp) & Keegan. Then there's the former players who are now in media. 9 tries for those two opening TDs against Rutgers was an IMPROVEMENT ...
DeleteStill some football to be played, but the TD to Bell was a refreshing change in approach, forcing the ohio D to at least consider playaction ... efforts seem to be in place
They've gone for it on 4th down instead of kicking in the last couple weeks while the previous 2 weeks they played it safe. They were motivated to get different results. They made different choices. That doesn't mean it was ever a deficiency in ability.
DeleteSometimes a .300 hitter will go 0-4, a 95% free throw shooter will go 2-6, Bijan Robinson will run for 2.4 ypc, and an elite red zone offense will have days where they kick too many FGs. These can be "issues" to fix or they can be "bad days" to acknowledge and move on from.
I'll bring up Erik All's hands and Greg Harden's advice again - not a worry, shrug it off and move on.
I don't think the red zone issue is a nothingburger Lank. We just did it against Rutgers and Nebraska, not exactly great defensive teams. And if we have to use 4 downs to get a TD against Rutgers in the redzome, are you confident we can repeat the formula against Ohio? I am skeptical.
DeleteThe red zone talk goes back to our discussion previously about running back development.
DeleteIs Michigan better in the red zone simply because they're "regressing to the mean" and scoring some touchdowns when they weren't scoring touchdowns before?
Or are they scoring more because they're putting more focus on it during their game planning or practice sessions?
Chicken or egg.
As a coach myself, we certainly spent more time focusing on red zone issues when we had problems early in the year. We put together some personnel packages and schemes that would help us. By the end of the season, we were pretty dang good in the red zone.
If you have 1st-and-Goal from the 6 and it takes 4 downs to score against Rutgers, that's not exactly something to brag about.
Nebraska's defense sucks. They're #109 at allowing scores in the red zone. I'm not walking away from this game and thinking "Yeah, Michigan has it all figured out in the red zone!"
A few days after this concern was raised Michigan went 5/6 in scoring TDs in the red zones against Rutgers - a top 50 defense. If this isn't something to brag about then kicking 5 FGs against MSU isn't something to worry about.
DeleteAgain, Michigan ranks as near elite in the red zone, based on results. So that there was ever an issue in the first place is subject to debate. Yes, even with the coaches and players talking about it (just like Steph Curry talking about missing free throws).
This is not a pattern of an issue it was just a thing that happened and an absolute rerun of the same conversation last year. People got upset about a lot of FGs against MSU -- who defense also sucks BTW - this year and last year and in neither case did it prove to be a problem in the following weeks. Against a tougher defense (OSU) Michigan went for TDs.
This year, last year, same story.
It's true that development and coaching are a plausible explanations for fixing deficiencies but we are talking in this case about 6 days available between the MSU game and the Rutgers game and an extreme shift in red zone TD success.
after the concern was raised. Including this year, against Rutgers - a far superior defense than MSU.
@ Lank 4:18 p.m.
DeleteIt's still a problem if you're taking 4 downs to get in from the 3-yard line.
Also, Rutgers is literally last - #131 - in the country in allowing red zone scores. They've allowed 27 scores on 28 trips into the red zone. They're #129 in allowing touchdowns in the red zone.
And that's not all because they played Michigan. Rutgers has allowed scores on 15/16 red zone drives by unranked teams, which would place them at #128 in the country.
Rutgers is bad. Nebraska is bad.
Rutgers D is not bad. Rutgers D ranks somewhere between average to good on a bunch of defensive measures like points allowed, yards allowed, and yards per play. Advanced stats (like opponent adjusted efficiency) tell the same story. So do your eyes if you watched our game against them.
DeleteRutgers is NOWHERE near the 129th ranked defense in the country. Something like 40-70 in the country is about right. They are OK. Average. Mediocre. Unexceptional. But not bad.
So -- if you know a team isn't that bad and yet it sucks horribly based on metric that seemingly can vary from week to week... maybe it's not worth putting too much stock into that measure?
It's actually not a problem if you are taking 4 tries to get 7 points or 1 try to get 7 points. It's a problem if you're not getting the 7 points. What you're talking about is a concern for the future.
DeleteMichigan's short yardage performance on the season is very good. The offseason narrative was that we should worry about this without HH and that proved irrelevant to short yardage.
Michigan's red zone performance on the season is very good. The post-MSU narrative was proven irrelevant for the next 2 weeks. Same as last year.
The wish is that Michigan was a soul-crushing football machine, where from the first snap the outcome is certain. Michigan is not that team; Michigan hasn't been that team since forever; Michigan will never be that team.
ReplyDeleteBe happy we're not Purdue. Or Nebraska.
Michigan has the #96 passing offense (that number is an update, before yesterday it was #93, so it's getting worse). You can just watch the team and know the passing game is very bad. Who is the centerpiece of that passing game? JJ McCarthy. But blame continually goes on the receivers, the coaches, the play calling, the weather, and anything else you JJ hype-sters can think of. The passing game looked no where near this bad last year. It hasn't looked this bad since John O'Korn.
ReplyDeleteMichigan is #25 nationally in passing efficiency.
Deletehttps://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/465
Without McNamara it would be in the top 20.
man o man, keep gnawing away at reality, and pretend.
DeleteSo you think the passing game is good? You are delusional.
Hard to be 10-0 if you're one dimensional. I think passing game is far from elite but doing a good job avoiding costly mistakes. Like last year, they are leaning into strong run game and defense (thusfar, but the best they've faced is top 25ish PSU). That recipe worked pretty well.
DeleteIs the passing game good? Depends if you think a 9-3 team is good. That's the level the passing game is at - top 25ish.
They are better than last year though. Mostly because of the QB. OL is shuffling around pieces, run game lost HH, All is out, but otherwise there is a lot of consistency on the offensive side of the ball besides QB where we have a QB who has done a better job in the run game and avoiding mistakes despite already facing a couple of top 10 defenses (Iowa and PSU). Nothing nearly as embarrassing as last years Washington game or Georgia game at this point, so we got that going for us.
Just let it go Lank. Sometimes it's better to push away from the internet for a few days.
DeleteNo
DeleteWhat statistic says that our passing offense is #96? How can you say that JJ is the worst QB we had since John O'Korn? JJ has a 69% completion percentage and 14TD to 2 INT ratio. I think it is insane to put the blame of the passing offense on JJ.
DeleteJoel Klatt has a great take on this. He thinks our running game is soo good that it might have come at the expense of our passing game.
@ Anonymous 11:56 a.m.
DeleteI didn't hear Klatt say that, but I was about to say the same thing. There's only so much practice time per week, and these guys aren't pros. Michigan has decided to focus on the rushing game, and they're pretty good at it. They run a variety of schemes using a bunch of motions, formations, and personnel. You can't always be good at everything.
I definitely think there's blame to go around, from McCarthy to the receivers to the play calling. The play calls are getting guys open sometimes (good job, coaches!), and McCarthy isn't seeing them. Sometimes there are guys open (good job, coaches and WRs!), and McCarthy isn't hitting them. Sometimes there's nobody open and McCarthy has nowhere to throw and McCarthy holds onto the ball too long (bad job, everybody!).
@Anon 1156
DeleteThe other Anon is trolling but he is referring to the total passing yards per game.
I wonder if Thunder's theory that they focus on the run game more in practice is true. I think it's primarily that that's what they are good at - because the OL is finally at that Bo-era/Harbaugh at Stanford level of depth and performance. I would guess the passing game is getting plenty of reps just like when they were passing more often with Patterson or Speight.
A good rushing game makes for a better passing game and vice versa.
DeleteIt's true you can't practice everything and its true you can't be good at everything but elite offenses are good at both. If not defenses will sell out to stop that one thing and not worry about the other.
This is another place, like the red zone issues, where you have to ask if the underlying assumption in the criticism is valid. OR if people are just looking for things to obsess about and criticize. Frankly, there's not much to learn from playing a totally overmatched opponent like Nebraska, so people go digging for things to talk about. If this was "news" it would be a slow news cycle.
Michigan has a dominant run game. When they pass it's still been pretty effective. They don't do it that often because they're so damn good at running. We just went through this concern last year. Michigan passed when they had to pass but ran when they wanted to do what they were best at. It worked pretty dang well last year and so far it's working even better this year.
Does it mean they can win a shootout against OSU? No. They need their D to slow them down and they need their O to chip in with ball control too. Still a tall order, especially on the road.
Does it mean they would have an effective O against Georgia? Probably not but I personally feel like we are better balanced than we were last year.
Where we are on offense after 10 games in 2022 >> same point in 2021.
Hi Lank,
DeleteI never said JJ McCarthy is the worst QB Michigan has had since O'Korn. You made that into a strawman.
Like I said before, push away from the internet for a few days. This is too hard for you.
I didn't mention O'Korn once LOL. Maybe take your own advice since you seem confused.
DeleteSomeone smarter / more knowledgeable with respect to play calling will have to answer this for me, but what happened to the end arounds that we ran so effectively last year? I always felt like those were a great way to involve the receivers a bit more (specifically Henning and Wilson), move some touches away from the RBs and give the defense another look to worry about. We ran a nice reverse in the Iowa game to Wilson but I can't recall anything since then. Were those just a Gattis specialty?
ReplyDeleteI don't think those were a Gattis specialty. I think that comes more from Harbaugh. Remember that Michigan used Jehu Chesson, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Eddie McDoom on jet sweeps and inside handoffs in the years before Gattis came.
DeleteLooking at Miami's stats this year (I haven't watched more than a couple minutes of their games), they have 8 carries for 25 yards spread out among three wide receivers. I don't know if those were backward passes, jet sweeps, reverses, etc., but that's not much production.
Michigan has not done much with trick plays other than the Ronnie Bell pass attempt against Michigan State this year (there have been one or two other attempts). Last year they were running flea flickers, reverses, end arounds, a double pass, etc. I have to assume that a flea flicker or two will be coming down the stretch, and Donovan Edwards should be good for at least one halfback pass.
Good point re. Miami's stats this year.
DeleteI'm not usually a proponent of the "they're keeping the game plan vanilla until OSU" theory but I don't see any other explanation. Just seems odd regarding the end arounds in particular as we used to utilize those against some inferior opponents as well (e.g., Henning against Western Michigan and Northern Illinois). Certainly not going to complain as long as we move the ball against OSU.
I would speculate that the WR runs were previous team's way of stretching the defenses out horizontally. With JJ's running ability and the current passing game they already do that pretty effectively. Michigan has other (better) ways to keep opposing defenses from focusing on shutting down the interior-focused run game.
DeleteIn other words they don't need to do that anymore.
Lank @ 4:26 pm -- I like this answer; it makes sense. Thanks.
DeleteWhat's really odd is Michigan hasn't done RPO's. That was supposed to be the biggest reason JJ McCarthy was made starter. We were supposed to be getting a steady diet of RPO's with him starting because, "Cade can't do that". But I'm trying to remember when I've seen one. Seriously, when has there been RPO's with JJ McCarthy this year?
Delete@ Lank 4:26 p.m.
DeleteIt's a feasible theory, but I don't really buy it. Michigan ran end arounds, etc. with Shea Patterson there, and he was also an effective runner. Maybe not quite as fast as McCarthy, but he still got the job done at times.
Patterson ran 76 times for 273 yards in 2018.
McCarthy has run 42 times for 195 yards in 2022 with 3+ games left.
@ Anonymous 5:25 p.m.
DeleteMichigan has run a few RPOs here and there with McCarthy, but not as much as I expected Michigan would have run when Josh Gattis was hired. (I know he's gone now.)
As a high school coach, we literally have RPOs built into every single run play except for one, and that's part of our goal line package where we're just playing smashmouth football. I'm surprised Michigan doesn't run more of them, but then again, it seems to be working for them.
Yeah that's fair Thunder. Thinking about it more I'm not sure the premise of meaningful change in approach is legit. WR runs were never a huge part of the offense and they are still there in the offense now.
DeleteWR carries by year:
2022: 8 so far
2021: 16
2019: 13
2018: 9
There's noise in those numbers (WRs taking carries as RBs, RBs taking carries as WR) but no matter how you slice it it's not a huge part of the offense.
I think these are mostly a constraint play to get it on film and get the defense to be unsure of what to do in response to certain formations and motions. Like QB runs you might not want to count on it for lots of production but you definitely want to make people think about it.
We haven't had much success on them this year though. Last year there were a solid handful of explosive plays of these and this year I think Roman Wilson's 21 yarder is the longest. I think that's the bigger issue for perception.
Like other low frequency/rare events, I think it's pretty easy to read too much into high variance results in low sample sizes.
Fair point - perhaps the Henning rushes were just very memorable last year.
DeleteYour JJ McCarthy couldn't even shred this bad Nebraska defense. What will he do against a team like Georgia if they get to the playoffs?!
ReplyDeleteMost likely lose the game, but that's no different than *any* team not named "Georgia" this year. There's no team -- not Ohio State, not TCU, not Michigan, not Alabama, LSU, or Clemson -- that can run with Georgia in a normal (that is, not error-filled) game.
DeleteThe real question will be answered when they face Ohio State in Columbus.
About what Cade did but a bit better probably
Delete