RUSH OFFENSE vs. OHIO STATE RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #4 in rushing offense (243.8 yards/game) and #12 in yards per carry (5.51). Starting running back Blake Corum managed to hit the 100-yard mark yet again (18 carries, 108 yards, 1 TD), but he only ran the ball once in the second half after taking a hit to the knee. That compounded the problem of not having backup Donovan Edwards, so Michigan was forced to use freshman C.J. Stokes, walk-on Isaiah Gash, and a small dose of redshirt freshman Tavierre Dunlap. Stokes has potential but needs to develop physically, and Gash is a limited runner and pass catcher. Up front right tackle Trente Jones is rumored to be returning from injury this week, while the status of left guard Trevor Keegan is in question. Defensively, Ohio State is #15 against the run (107.9 yards allowed/game) and they give up the 8th fewest yards per carry (3.08). Senior linebacker Tommy Eichenberg (6'2", 239 lbs.) leads the team with 105 tackles with a distant second place from fellow senior 'backer Steele Chambers (6'1", 232), and third place is junior safety Lathan Ransom (6'1", 205). The Buckeyes are #18 in tackles for loss per game (7.0), and once again, Eichenberg leads the way with 12, followed by defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau (6'4", 270) with 9. This is an advantage for Michigan if everyone's healthy, but if Corum isn't close to 100% and Michigan is forced to use Stokes, Gash, and Dunlap extensively, it's going to be trouble.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS OFFENSE vs. OHIO STATE PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #99 in passing offense (208.8 yards/game), tied for #45 in yards per attempt (7.8), and #30 in passing efficiency. Some of those numbers are misleading, because the passing game started off great this season and has tailed off in recent weeks. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy has not completed even 53% of his throws in any of the past three games, and he's averaging 6.3 yards/attempt during that stretch. Reliable Ronnie Bell (48 catches, 651 yards, 2 TD) leads the team in tackles, but the #2 receiving target, tight end Luke Schoonmaker (30 catches, 315 yards, 2 TD) has missed the past two games due to injury. Speedster Roman Wilson has just 3 catches for 19 yards over the past four weeks (one of which he missed due to injury). The Wolverines rank #19 in the country in giving up sacks at just 1.09 per game. Ohio State is tied at #22 in sacks per game (2.82), led by sophomore defensive tackle Michael Hall, Jr. (6'2", 290) and sophomore defensive end Jack Sawyer (6'4", 267) with 4.5. Tuimoloau has really taken off during the second half of the season, notching 6 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions, and all 4 of his sacks in the past five games. Overall, the Buckeyes are #11 in pass defense (175.5 yards allowed/game), tied at #24 in yards allowed per attempt (6.4), and #28 in pass efficiency defense. Senior nickel safety Tanner McCalister (5'11", 195) leads the squad with 3 interceptions.
Advantage: Ohio State
I guess I've been reading the past 2 weeks about Michigan's passing efficiency, and about how JJ McCarthy is still doing great. It's like what I am reading is saying, "Everything's fine, nothing to see here." But I'm not feeling too comfortable about it. The numbers you have here are contrary to the optimistic predictions I've been seeing around the internet. I just hope JJ McCarthy will come through in this game. I just am not confident about it.
ReplyDeleteThe difference may be the amount of fight in each team. Michigan may be digging deeper with more fight. And that can make them overcome the shortcomings of the team.
I think the loss of Schoonmaker (and All) has really hurt McCarthy. McCarthy and Schoonmaker had a great connection, and Michigan is obviously really adept at getting tight ends involved in the offense. Colston Loveland is going to be a good one, but he and McCarthy obviously don't have the same connection built up at this point. On the plus side, Schoonmaker is supposedly going to play tomorrow. We'll see if that's enough to get the passing game back on the right track.
DeleteJJ McCarthy hasn't gone to the WRs very much this year. I don't think he looks at more than 1 or 2 people to throw to before he throws. I just am not confident in him even with Schoonmaker.
DeleteBut yeah, you do make a good point about the 2 best TEs being out. But how much has McCarthy thrown to Wilson? Or even to the RBs? It just seems there's limitations in JJ McCarthy that the OCs have to deal with, and adjust what the plays can be.
And maybe the complaints about Ron Ballamy are true. Maybe the WRs are to blame.
But it looks like guys are getting open. I saw a guy on twitter do a video on how wide open Colston Loveland was on a play, and that the play was designed to get him open. He did a turn in, and no one covered him after the turn in. The defender went with Roman Wilson just before the turn in. But McCarthy threw it to Roman Wilson. There's another play with Cornelius Johnson a couple weeks ago, dragging across the middle, completely uncovered. But the throw went into a busy past of the defense.
I (like many others) hoped & prayed for rain & win. Now I think our best chance is a healthy Corum, Edwards w/o a cast, and the skill guys executing ... that's a tall order
ReplyDeleteIf Corum isn't close to being healthy, Michigan will not win this game. He's the focal point of the offense, and nobody else has really even shown flashes of being able to be The Man when crunch time comes.
DeleteIt's almost as if RBs don't...
DeleteFor all the anxiety abt Michigan’s offense, I think they will be fine. It is the defense that will cause Michigan to lose tomorrow. More specifically, Michigan’s inablity to get to Stroud. I hope I am wrong.
ReplyDeleteYeah, everything's fine with JJ. Move along people, nothing to see there, right?
DeleteAnd you pick on the defense, which has been fantastic this year. This is the best defense Michigan has had since 1997.